Annals of Operations Research (2022) 319:1159–1196

[Link]

S.I.: DESIGN AND MANAGEMENT OF HUMANITARIAN SUPPLY

CHAINS

Impacts of epidemic outbreaks on supply chains:

mapping a research agenda amid the COVID‑19 pandemic
through a structured literature review

Maciel M. Queiroz1 · Dmitry Ivanov2 · Alexandre Dolgui3 ·

Samuel Fosso Wamba4

Published online: 16 June 2020

© The Author(s) 2020

Abstract
The coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak shows that pandemics and epidemics can seriously
wreak havoc on supply chains (SC) around the globe. Humanitarian logistics literature has
extensively studied epidemic impacts; however, there exists a research gap in understand-
ing of pandemic impacts in commercial SCs. To progress in this direction, we present a
systematic analysis of the impacts of epidemic outbreaks on SCs guided by a structured lit-
erature review that collated a unique set of publications. The literature review findings sug-
gest that influenza was the most visible epidemic outbreak reported, and that optimization
of resource allocation and distribution emerged as the most popular topic. The streamlining
of the literature helps us to reveal several new research tensions and novel categorizations/
classifications. Most centrally, we propose a framework for operations and supply chain
management at the times of COVID-19 pandemic spanning six perspectives, i.e., adap-
tation, digitalization, preparedness, recovery, ripple effect, and sustainability. Utilizing
the outcomes of our analysis, we tease out a series of open research questions that would
not be observed otherwise. Our study also emphasizes the need and offers directions to
advance the literature on the impacts of the epidemic outbreaks on SCs framing a research
agenda for scholars and practitioners working on this emerging research stream.

Keywords Supply chain · COVID-19 · Influenza · Resilience · Epidemic outbreaks ·

Pandemic · Structured literature review · Adaptation · Digitalization · Preparedness ·
Recovery · Ripple effect · Sustainability

* Dmitry Ivanov
divanov@hwr‑[Link]
Extended author information available on the last page of the article

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1160 Annals of Operations Research (2022) 319:1159–1196

1 Introduction

The contemporary world has been challenged by unprecedented disease outbreaks (Chew
et al. 2004; Lin et al. 2020; Nigmatulina and Larson 2009), whith significant negatively
effects on the society as a whole, but also on the efficiency of operations and supply chain
(SC) management (OSCM) business models. Such disruptive impacts frequently yield the
ripple effects (Ivanov 2020a; Ivanov et al. 2018; Pavlov et al. 2019b). While SCs across
the globe have been already suffering from epidemics and pandemic, they have recently
been seriously hit by an unprecedented, far-reaching disruptive epidemic outbreak, namely
COVID-19 (Boccaletti et al. 2020), which is considered as a new type of extremely conta-
gious coronavirus, with destructive impacts (Choi 2020; Ivanov 2020a; Ivanov and Dolgui
2020b).
The COVID-19 was first reported in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, in the late 2019.
As noted by the Johns Hopkins University on May 27, 2020, the number of confirmed
cases reported around the world have been steadily growing, reaching 5.69 millions with
355,575 deaths (Johns Hopkins University & Medicine 2020). In view of this exponential
growth, the COVID-19 was declared a world pandemic by the World Health Organiza-
tion—WHO (2020) on March 11.
The impacts of the COVID-19 on SCs have already gained attention of scholars (Choi
2020; Govindan et al. 2020; International Journal of Production Research 2020a, 2020b;
Journal of Operations Management 2020; Ivanov 2020a; Lin et al. 2020; Sarkis et al. 2020)
and industry experts (Business Insider 2020; Deloitte 2020; Forbes 2020a, b; Fortune 2020;
Harvard Business Review 2020; Institute for Supply Chain Management—ISM 2020). The
COVID-19 epidemic is already impacting the OSCM at a large scale (Lin et al. 2020).
Fortune (2020), in a report published on 21 February 2020, indicated that 94% of the com-
panies listed in the Fortune 1000 list were facing SC disruptions due to the COVID-19. As
for Deloitte (2020), the publication highlighted that the whole effect of the pandemic on
SCs remained uncharted. The past epidemic outbreaks offer valuable lessons in relation to
the SCs. The World Economic Forum—WEF (2020a, b) emphasized the need for firms and
organizations to reengineer and adapt SCs to their future trade challenges. For instance, the
short-term priority may be ‘transport and production’ and ‘worker movement’, while in the
long term, capabilities and strategies related to ‘digital readiness & data sharing’ would be
developed and implemented for SCs (World Economic Forum—WEF 2020a, b).
In a context where severe disruptions (e.g., manufacturers closed or partially closed, air-
ports operating with harsh restrictions, shortages of medical equipment and supplies) are
recorded in the global SCs (Ivanov 2020a; McKinsey & Company 2020; World Economic
Forum—WEF 2020a), a good number of industries (automotive, electronics, medical
equipment, consumer goods, etc.) also experience ripple effects (Dolgui et al. 2018; Ivanov
2020a, b). For example, as China is considered a world’s factory, the pandemic’s disrup-
tions to SCs around the world started there before spreading elsewhere (Deloitte 2020). The
severe ripple effects from this challenge requires different strategies and actions, includ-
ing robust SC resilience strategies (Chen et al. 2019; Ivanov and Sokolov 2019; Pournader
et al. 2020). Moreover, responses from the OSCM to such outbreaks by should consist in
rendering global SCs more integrated and digitally ready (Choi et al. 2020; World Eco-
nomic Forum—WEF 2020a, b). The digitalization of the SCs could improve the quality
of the response to outbreak-related disruptions by enhancing the OSCM flexibility (Ivanov
et al. 2019) in such circumstances.

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Annals of Operations Research (2022) 319:1159–1196 1161

It should be noted that the OSCM literature has approached studies on different types of
epidemic outbreaks, with various objectives. For instance, outbreaks of influenza (Mamani
et al. 2013), Ebola (Büyüktahtakın et al. 2018), Cholera (Anparasan and Lejeune 2017)
and malaria (Parvin et al. 2018), among others, have been thoroughly studied. The major-
ity of these papers have devoted particular attention to resource allocation, distribution of
the medicaments, vaccines procurement policies, and emergency health response. It is true
that recent advances have been made by the literature concerning SC response (Aldrighetti
et al. 2019; Banomyong et al. 2019; Lu et al. 2017; Song et al. 2018; Shen and Li 2017)
and epidemic outbreaks operations (Anparasan and Lejeune 2019; Chick et al. 2008; Long
et al. 2018; Paul and Venkateswaran 2020), but the effects of epidemic outbreaks on SCs
(Ivanov 2020a; Sarkis et al. 2020) are still to be adequately investigated. In this regard,
operations research (OR) and operations management (OM) approaches such as network
and complexity theories (e.g., Bayesian networks, Markov chains, network theory, eco-
logical modeling) (Demirel et al. 2019; Hosseini and Ivanov 2019; Li and Zobel 2020),
simulation (agent-based simulation, discrete-event simulation, systems dynamics) (Ghadge
et al. 2013; Zhao et al. 2019; Ivanov 2020a), optimization (stochastic programming, robust
optimization, mixed-integer linear programming, heuristics, dynamic programming) (Yoon
et al. 2018; Amiri-Aref et al. 2019; Sawik 2019) could bring interesting insights to address
this complex pandemic context. Moreover, empirical theories such resources based view
(RBV), dynamic capabilities, contingency theory, organizational information processing
theory (OIPT) with applications to resilience (Bode et al. 2011; Dubey et al. 2019b, c,
2020) could be employed jointly with OR/OM approaches to frame empirically-grounded
analytics and to examine the impacts of epidemic outbreaks on SCs.
However, the literature reporting the application areas of these methods in a systematic
way remains scarce. The results remain scattered across different sources and rather unsys-
temized. We could identify only one paper covering the literature review on the impacts
of epidemic outbreaks on logistics (Dasaklis et al. 2012). Considering the paucity of the
literature on the effects of epidemic outbreaks on SCs (Ivanov 2020a; Ivanov and Dol-
gui 2020b), our study intends to unlock and shed more light in this discussion, provid-
ing valuable insights that will enable decision-makers and policy-makers to develop their
response plans for SCs. In contrast to Dasaklis et al. (2012), our study analyses the latest
articles published by March 2020 and offers a broader picture by covering different areas of
OSCM. Moreover, our ultimate objective goes beyond a pure literature review to identify
what happended in the past, but we rather use the literature review results to project future
research agenda for OSCM under the conditions of COVID-19 pandemic.
For the moment, this topic is still at a nascent stage, even though it is promising and
crucial research area (Haren and Simchi-Levi 2020; Ivanov 2020a; World Economic
Forum—WEF 2020a, b). Therefore, this work aims to help bridge the gap by investigating
the available OSCM literature on the impact of epidemic outbreaks on SCs and logistics
while proposing avenues for improvements. We seek to provide a robust research agenda
that will contribute to advancing the extant relevant literature, feeding decision- and pol-
icy-makers with significant insights for the OSCM-related fields. Once again, the extant
literature remains silent on the disruptive impacts of epidemic outbreaks on SCs, and this
study is committed to help bridging this gap. More specifically, we are taking the lead of
research by attempting to answer the following research questions (RQs).

RQ1: How does the OSCM literature address issues related to epidemic outbreaks in terms
of their impact on logistics and SCs?

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1162 Annals of Operations Research (2022) 319:1159–1196

RQ2: What are the main problem settings and methods used?

RQ3: What are the open questions and future research opportunities framing OSCM at the
times of COVID-19 pandemic?

The following contributions are expected from this study. The first and main contribu-
tion of our study is to map out an emergent research agenda for OSCM at the times of
COVID-19 pandemic. The second contribution is a systematization of the literature inves-
tigating the interplay between epidemic outbreaks and SCs. The third contribution is an
identification of several open research questions to be explored in very near future.
In terms of organization, Sect. 2 of this paper highlights the SLR methodology, sup-
ported by its findings and the content analysis in Sect. 3. Section 4 elaborates on a research
agenda for OSCM at the times of COVID-19 pandemic. Section 5 serves as a conclusion
and underscores other key considerations.

2 Systematic literature review

Systematic literature review (SLR) has a long tradition, mainly in medical sciences
(Cochrane Library 2018). The SLR is briefly defined as: “[…] an efficient technique for
hypothesis testing, for summarising the results of existing studies, and for assessing con-
sistency among previous studies; these tasks are clearly not unique to medicine.” (Petticrew
2001, pp. 99–100).
The SLR has been recently used successfully in the SC context (Mustafa Kamal and
Irani 2014; Queiroz et al. 2019b; Roberta Pereira et al. 2014; Tachizawa and Wong 2014),
which is eloquent evidence that, due to its systematic approach, the SLR is considered a
rigorous method to conduct literature reviews. At the first stage of our approach, we there-
fore started with defining the scope and delimitating the subjects (Tranfield et al. 2003),
taking into account their interdisciplinary nature. For the sake of objectivity and reliability
in the whole process, we designed a research protocol (Table 1) (Tranfield et al. 2003).
At the second stage, we performed the search to identify the relevant papers. Following
the recommendations (Tranfield et al. 2003), we considered only documents that met the
full research protocol criteria. To comply with internal validity, we retained only journals
indexed by Scopus. Moreover, to extract data and explore the papers, we used the quantita-
tive software MAXQDA (Queiroz et al. 2019b; Schanes et al. 2018), and the Bibliometrix,
an R-tool for science mapping and analysis (Aria and Cuccurullo 2017). At the third and
last stage of the SLR, we reported the main findings from the analysis of papers. This led
to unveiling several insights into both the knowledge literature and a number of research
topics (Tranfield et al. 2003). Figure 1 highlights the main schematical flow of the review
process.

Remark 1 We note that our search was specifically designed in light of two aspects, i.e. (i)
focus on commercial SCs and logistics (and not on humanitarian logistics) and (ii) focus
on the evident and tangible logistics, production and SC contexts (i.e., it shoud be evident
from the paper that it explicitly deals with an epidemic and SC issues; for example the
papers that just mention epidemics as a possible risk were not considered).

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Table 1  Research protocol

Research protocol Details description

Research databases: Scopus Database, ScienceDirect (Elsevier), Emeral-

dinsight (Emerald), Wiley Online Library (Wiley),
Taylor & Francis Online (Taylor & Francis),
Springer Link (Springer), Inderscience, and Informs
PubsOnline
Publication type: Peer-review journals (indexed by Scopus)
Language: We considered only papers written in English
Date range: The range period for consideration was 2003–2020
(March 22)
Search fields: Titles, abstracts, and keywords
Search terms: applied in Titles in Scopus Database (“outbreak*” OR “pandemic*” OR “epidemic*”
and in Titles, Abstracts, and Keywords in the OR “disease*” AND “humanitarian operati*” OR
other databases “humanitarian relief*” OR “suppl* Chain*” OR
“logistic*”)
Criteria for inclusion Papers that presented some outbreak in a logistics/
SC context
Criteria for exclusion Papers that presented outbreak discussion purely
without protagonism of the logistics/SC, and review
papers
Data extraction We used an R-tool software Bibliometrix and the
qualitative software MAXQDA
Data analysis and synthesis Supported by the Bibliometrix and MAXQDA, we
performed a content analysis approach

*Remark 2 In this query, due to the search considered title, abstract and keywords, we pre-
selected only the first potential papers that met the Remark 1. Besides, forthcoming papers
were also considered.

3 Findings from the literature review

3.1 Basic informations from the papers selected

As signalized in the previous section, we used an R-tool software application called Bib-
liometrix (Aria and Cuccurullo 2017; Zhou et al. 2019). The Bibliometrix is open-source
application that has the potential to import data from different sources (Scopus, Clarivate
Analytics’ Web of Science, among others). It has been used successfully in various litera-
ture review works (Bernardet et al. 2019; Demiroz and Haase 2019; Purba et al. 2019; Zhou
et al. 2019), providing support for robustness and reliability in science mapping. Although
we initially used the year 2003 in our searches, the first paper that met our research proto-
col dates back to 2008. However, with 12 years of time horizon, only 32 documents were
selected considering all the inclusion criteria.

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Fig. 1  Research protocol to the SLR

3.2 Publications by journals

Table 2 shows the number of papers published in the course of each journal. The jour-
nals devoted to operations research (OR) topped the chart. Moreover, OR, operations
management (OM) and logistics journals represent the majority of publications. They
include publications such as Manufacturing and Service Operations Management,
Journal of Humanitarian Logistics and Supply Chain Management, Production and
Operations Management, Transportation Research Part E, among others. However,
there are also influential medical/interdisciplinary journals such as the case of Lancet
and CHEST.
Moreover, our SLR identified the protagonism of the OR/OM journals while discov-
ering that the number of papers on epidemic outbreaks was very limited. In the same
light, journals dedicated to logistics and SCs were also in small number. Therefore,
it becomes necessary to bridge this gap by producing more studies on the epidemic
issues, including the COVID-19.
The top journals with regular papers published on these topics are European Jour-
nal of Operational Research (EJOR), Annals of Operations Research (ANOR), Journal
of the Operational Research Society (JORS), and Manufacturing and Service Opera-
tions Management (M&SOM). These journals accounted for 34.38% of the publica-
tions. Concerning the different behaviors of these journals over time, it appears that

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Table 2  Articles published by the journal

Sources Articles

European Journal of Operational Research 4

Annals of Operations Research 3
Journal of the Operational Research Society 2
Manufacturing and Service Operations Management 2
American Journal of Medicine 1
CHEST 1
Computers and Industrial Engineering 1
Computers and Operations Research 1
Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 1
International Journal of Integrated Supply Management 1
International Journal of Mathematics in Operational Research 1
International Journal of Production Research 1
International Journal of Systems Science: Operations and Logistics 1
Journal of Applied Poultry Research 1
Journal of Emergency Management 1
Journal of Humanitarian Logistics and Supply Chain Management 1
Management Science 1
Networks and Spatial Economics 1
Operations Research 1
PLOS Computational Biology 1
Production and Operations Management 1
Promet - Traffic - Traffico 1
Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 1
The Lancet 1
Transportation Research Part E 1

the EJOR leads in terms of output, while the ANOR makes proof of a steady engage-
ment, with one yearly publication over the last 3 years. It is noteworthy highlighting
the recent interest for production research, SC and logistics by some dedicated jour-
nals, such as the International Journal of Production Research, the International Jour-
nal of Integrated Supply Management and Transportation Research Part E (with one
paper in 2020* until March 18).

3.3 Word TreeMap dynamics

Figure 2 displays a Word TreeMap dynamics, based on keywords plus. It means that these
words were not necessary given by the authors; instead, these were acquired from the titles
of references from our dataset (32 papers). In addition, the frequency of the keywords
determines the size of the rectangles, while the colors emphasize the relationship with the
keyword. The role of word segments such as “epidemic outbreak,” “humanitarian logis-
tics”, “influenza”, “optimization”, “resource allocation” and “supply chain” is quite iden-
tifiable. In the other rectangles (smaller sizes), we have various related words, but also
emerging topics that are being already highlighted, such as “COVID 19”, “coronavirus”,
“decentralized logistics systems”, “digital twin”, and “data-driven models.”

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1166 Annals of Operations Research (2022) 319:1159–1196

Fig. 2  Word dynamics (keywords plus) per year

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Moreover, there is a tendency for Coronavirus and COVID-19 to outperform each other
over time, but we can also notice the growth of other interesting topics related to “Corona-
virus and COVID-19”, such as “optimisation”, “epidemic outbreak”, humanitarian logis-
tics” and “resource allocation”. In the other rectangles (smaller sizes) we have various
related words.
Other related emerging topics can be unveiled using words and groups of words such
as “COVID-19”, “coronavirus”, “decentralized logistics systems”, “digital twin”, and
“data-driven models”. Taking into account the word dynamics, we can see that “emergency
response” is a well-explored topic due to its variations (e.g., disaster response, disaster
management, emergency management, emergency SC management, and emergency logis-
tics). Therefore, with regard to our research questions and objectives, it clearly appears that
related impact themes as indicated through the words ‘risks’ and ‘resilience’ (the most fre-
quent words) are scarse. Therefore, our study advocates the use of these two words in order
to see through the literature and investigate more deeply the impact of epidemic outbreaks
on SCs.

3.4 Multiple correspondence analysis

In Fig. 3, we point out the conceptual structure map by employing a multiple correspond-
ence analysis (MCA) method. The MCA is a data reduction technique that builds a map
of the scientific conceptual structure (Aria and Cuccurullo 2017). Thus, in summary, the
MCA plots a robust two-dimensional graphical map while taking into account the similari-
ties of the distribution of the words used in its representation (Aria and Cuccurullo 2017;
Cuccurullo et al. 2016). The more such words are similar and closer in the map, the better
they will be represented.
In this regard, a concentration of optimization techniques is essential to provide an
adequate response to epidemic outbreaks (e.g., optimization, Markov decision processes,

Fig. 3  Conceptual structure map

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1168 Annals of Operations Research (2022) 319:1159–1196

stochastic programming, health care operations, mixed integer and non-linear program-
ming, explicit optimization). Another interesting concentration is related to the susceptible
exposed infectious removed (SEIR) model, epidemic diffusion rule, genetic algorithm, and
latent period.
Also, the efforts related to epidemic response are represented by a significant concentra-
tion of “pandemic response management”, “emergency OSCM”, “public health emergen-
cies”, “healthcare management”, “resource allocation”, and “vaccine distribution”, inter
alia. Besides, there are other interesting concentrations related to “network modeling”,
“transportation”, “demand forecast”, “data-driven models”, and “options contract”. Finally,
blue words represent an emerging, challenging and unexplored topic (Ivanov 2020a, b)
related to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this landscape, important words appear in this con-
centration, like “resilience”, “digital twin”, “risk management”, and “pandemic plan”.

3.5 Categorization of epidemic and outbreaks in SCM

To synthesize our main findings from the literature review, we employed a content analysis
technique (Kache and Seuring 2014; Queiroz et al. 2019b; Brandenburg and Rebs 2015)
that could provide validity, objectivity and reliability through a coding-scheme approach,
as recommended by previous studies (Queiroz et al. 2019b; Spens and Kovács 2006). The
categories considered during the analysis of papers were Outbreak/Disease reported, Pur-
pose, Main method/Theoretical approach, and Supply chain/Logistics/Operations implica-
tions. Table 3 highlights the findings from the content analysis.

3.6 Discussion of findings

The categorization of the selected papers by the content analysis unlocked exciting find-
ings. Firstly, we identified that the majority of papers were devoted to the Influenza epi-
demic outbreak (43.75%), followed by papers without any particular focus on a specific
epidemic/outbreak, but with some insights into epidemic/outbreak control (18.75%). Then,
Cholera and Ebola held the third and fourth rank (12.5%), followed by COVID-19 (9.38%),
Malaria, and Smallpox, with one paper dedicated to these epidemics.
Furthermore, the selected papers mostly presented optimization models for resource
allocations (medicaments and vaccines distribution, vaccines procurement contracts,
patient allocation, facilities location, etc.). However, some studies approached these epi-
demic outbreaks for other purposes. This is the case of Bogoch et al. (2015), which consid-
ered the impact of Ebola diffusion on international air travelers and on the logistics infra-
structure network that is required to minimize the spread. It is also the case of a paper by
Ivanov (2020a, b) that addressed the COVID-19 impacts on SCs and how to predict it by
employing simulation techniques (Ivanov 2020a; Ivanov and Das 2020; Ivanov and Dolgui
2020b).
Regarding the “Main Method/Theoretical Approach” reported by the papers, it should
be recalled that most papers were related to optimization models, and therefore, they used
different mathematical models and approaches. They included mixed integer program-
ming (Liu and Zhang 2016; Büyüktahtakın et al. 2018), linear programming (Dasaklis
et al. 2017), game theory (Shamsi et al. 2018; Chick et al. 2008), case study and simulation
(Ivanov 2020a, b), case study and SIR model (Rachaniotis et al. 2012), case study and sto-
chastic programming/Markov (Parvin et al. 2018), among others. Table 4 shows the distri-
bution of papers by type of epidemic outbreak.

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 Table 3  Content analysis categorization
References Outbreak/disease reported Purpose Main method/Theoretical approach Supply chain/Logistics/Operations
implications

Rachaniotis et al. (2012) Influenza Proposing a deterministic Simple deterministic SIR model/ Management of the scarce resources
scheduling model for resources Case study considering multiple member’s
allocation demands is too complicated. A
deterministic model can support
the strategies and policies to man-
age limited resources
Liu and Zhang (2016) Influenza Development of a logistics model Mixed-integer programming/FPEA The authors integrated a time-series
to medical resources allocation model/Susceptible-exposed demand approach model with
considering different members infectious-removed (SEIR)/ logistics planning considering
of the SCs Numerical example orders, shipping, and resource
allocation. Thus, it found a signifi-
cant minimization of the forecast
Annals of Operations Research (2022) 319:1159–1196

error, reflecting improvements in

the SCs
Mamani et al. (2013) Influenza Analysis of the vaccine alloca- Hybrid epidemic model/Game Imbalance in the integrated and
tion inefficiency and contractual theory/Numerical experiments coordinated global SCs vac-
mechanism model proposing cines impacts on the shortfall
(vaccine procurement decisions) or excess, and thus on the SC
in SCs costs. Therefore, the utilization
of the coordinated contract could
generate benefits (e.g., costs and
shortages reduction)
1169

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 Table 3  (continued)
1170

References Outbreak/disease reported Purpose Main method/Theoretical approach Supply chain/Logistics/Operations

implications

13
Büyüktahtakın et al. (2018) Ebola Proposing a logistics epidemic Mixed-integer programming (MIP) Introduction and validation of an
model to controlling Ebola epi- model/Case study/Secondary optimized epidemics logistics
demic, considering the location data (WHO) model to resource allocation in the
of the resource SCs, considering the constraints of
the treatment centers. In addition,
the model provides useful informa-
tion while taking into considera-
tion the geographical parameters,
the dynamics of the infected in
different regions and the impact on
resources allocation
Majić et al. (2009) Influenza Analysis of the airport infrastruc- Secondary data analysis (WHO) The logistics infrastructure plays a
ture and logistics procedures for fundamental role to refrain the epi-
the distribution of medicaments demic, but the infrastructure has
huge challenges. Besides, rigorous
quality control is needed to handle
the medicaments safely
Shamsi et al. (2018) Epidemic/outbreak control Development of a model based on SIR epidemic model/Stackelberg The option contract model can
an option contract to enhance game model/Non-linear pro- help the suppliers to establish the
supply vaccines (procurement) gramming/Numerical experi- optimal values of the vaccines
and minimize the social costs ments demanded, as well as the buyer’s
forecasting, thus leading to the
minimization of procurement and
social costs
Anparasan and Lejeune (2017) Cholera Proposing a novel Haddon Matrix Literature review/Haddon Matrix A framework that provides useful
to support the response to the insights into humanitarian logistics
epidemics operations at all stages (pre-event/
response/post-event
Annals of Operations Research (2022) 319:1159–1196
 Table 3  (continued)
References Outbreak/disease reported Purpose Main method/Theoretical approach Supply chain/Logistics/Operations
implications

Bogoch et al. (2015) Ebola Analysis of the Ebola diffusion by Secondary data analysis (WHO, Executing the passengers screen-
international air travelers and the World Bank, US Centers for Dis- ing in the airport of origin seems
airport’s infrastructure role to ease Control and Prevention) an efficient method; however, the
combat it logistics infrastructure can be a
limitation
Anparasan and Lejeune (2018) Cholera Development of a data-driven Secondary data analysis (WHO, The data-driven analysis enables
model based on data set to sup- Centers for Disease Control and robust SC models for resource
port epidemic control policies Prevention (CDC), and Ministry allocations and emergency
and emergency health response of Health and Population of Haiti response, while empowering the
(MSPP))/Integer linear program- medical staff in an integrated and
ming coordinated chain
Muggy and Heier Stamm (2020) Cholera Proposing two models for humani- Beneficiary decision model/Cen- The authors showed that the
Annals of Operations Research (2022) 319:1159–1196

tarian SCs response, considering tralized planner’s model/Network proposed models could support
the distance and congestion to congestion games/Player-facility- post-disaster response (cholera
individual decisions related to specific congestion weights control in this case) by supporting
facility locations to supplies/ problem (PFSCWP)/Secondary the public health SC’s, especially
services data in the resource allocation. The
models showed the importance to
consider the effects of the indi-
viduals’ behavior in humanitarian
SCs to pursue the optimality of the
network
1171

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 Table 3  (continued)
1172

References Outbreak/disease reported Purpose Main method/Theoretical approach Supply chain/Logistics/Operations

implications

13
Parvin et al. (2018) Malaria Development of a methodology for Stochastic programming/Cluster/ The models showed that efficient
the distribution of drugs while Markov decision/Case study transportation planning can
considering the strategic and contribute to significantly reduc-
tactical aspects of a three-tiers ing costs and shortages. How-
health system ever, implementation is severely
impeded by challenges like the
lack of communication, weak gov-
ernment efforts and engagement,
and poor logistics infrastructure
Savachkin and Uribe (2012) Influenza Proposing a drug distribution Simulation/Optimization model The proposed model can redistribute
model by considering dynamic medicaments in a dynamic way,
strategies (redistribution of the taking into account the progress
resources, considering the pan- of the outbreak. The model also
demic behavior) considers logistics factors (costs,
distance, resources availability
etc.) and the progression of the
pandemic
Dasaklis et al. (2017) Smallpox Proposing a model for responding Linear programming/Numerical The configuration and operationali-
to smallpox through SC emer- experiment zation of howemergency network
gency, considering a large-scale response impacts directly on the
vaccination scenario outbreak control, and conse-
quently, in the entire activities
(social and economics). A model
was developed, taking into con-
sideration two stages (i. pandemic
progress; ii. the distribution
model). The authors point out the
influence of the resources available
to control the epidemics
Annals of Operations Research (2022) 319:1159–1196
 Table 3  (continued)
References Outbreak/disease reported Purpose Main method/Theoretical approach Supply chain/Logistics/Operations
implications

Bóta et al. (2017) Epidemic/outbreak control Proposing a network structure Simulation/Secondary data/Case Identification of the infectious
to vehicle trip considering the study/SIR model vehicle trip network could sup-
patterns of the number of pas- port logistics and SC strategies
sengers for planning the distribution and
avoiding risky trips. The authors
proposed a model that promotes
the identification of a public sys-
tem that is the most propensity to
transport passengers contaminated
Liu et al. (2019) Influenza Proposing an epidemic logistics Mixed-integer non-linear program- The proposed model found similari-
model for controlling H1N1, ming model (MINLP)/Case ties and contrasts with the model
based on the Büyüktahtakın et al. study proposed by Büyüktahtakın et al.
Annals of Operations Research (2022) 319:1159–1196

(2018) model (2018). The model support deci-

sions about when the isolated and
unused wards may be open or
closed
Tao et al. (2018) Epidemic/outbreak control Development of a vaccination dis- Stochastic-SIR model/Simulation The logistics resources available
tribution model, considering an can determine an intermediate
intermediate optimal solution solution as the “best”, in view of
the high constraints of the logistics
resources
1173

13
 Table 3  (continued)
1174

References Outbreak/disease reported Purpose Main method/Theoretical approach Supply chain/Logistics/Operations

implications

13
Ekici et al. (2014) Influenza Modeling food distribution plan- Agent-based continuous-time The model showed proof of robust-
ning to combat the influenza stochastic model/Mixed integer ness to support food demand
pandemic linear programming/Heuristics planning in the network, facility
development location and resource allocation/
distribution. Also, the authors
found that voluntary quarantine
can help several industries to cope
with capacity issues. For instance,
food distribution facilities and SCs
could operate by almost half of
their capacity
Sun et al. (2014) Influenza Development of optimization Optimization models/Case study The proposed models can help the
models for patient and resources logistics and SC health-care sys-
allocation tems to plan and manage resources
efficiently. Besides, the models
can help decision-makers to avoid
resources shortage
Enayati and Özaltın (2020) Influenza Proposing a vaccine distribution Mathematical programming The proposed model can support
model considering the minimiza- model/Exact discretization with public health decision-makers con-
tion of the vaccines necessary to multiparametric disaggregation cerning vaccine storage logistics
contain the pandemic and equity method to control outbreaks. The policies
criteria to coverage subgroups to vaccine allocation reflect
directly in the resource allocation
efficiency. Moreover, policies for
an equitable vaccination coverage
can positively influence outbreak
elimination
Annals of Operations Research (2022) 319:1159–1196
 Table 3  (continued)
References Outbreak/disease reported Purpose Main method/Theoretical approach Supply chain/Logistics/Operations
implications

Cruz et al. (2015) Influenza Reporting the logistics challenges Case study The logistics activities play an
in the public health response, essential role in providing an
while considering international effective intervention in epidemic/
cooperation and support to outbreaks control. While logistics
response to the outbreak can fundamentally contribute to
response quality, international
logistics cooperation plays an
essential role in the response
process
Anparasan and Lejeune (2019) Cholera Proposing a model for epidemic Secondary data (Ministry of The proposed model is capable of
response, considering the Health and Population of Haiti, capturing the particularities of the
resources constraints (size, WHO, Centers for Disease Con- country’s limited supply resources
Annals of Operations Research (2022) 319:1159–1196

number, location of the facilities, trol and Prevention)/Algorithm/ and to better help decision-makers
staff, transportation, etc.) Integer linear programming/ to configure resource allocation to
Framework respond effectively to an epidemic.
The model can also establish sev-
eral types of resources (number of
facility location, staff, transporta-
tion, patients to treatment, etc.)
Long et al. (2018) Ebola Development of an optimized Heuristic/Myopic linear program- Resource optimization contributes
model that operates at two levels: ming/Estimation–optimization/ directly to epidemic control and
i) assign treatment units in Approximate dynamic program- thus to saving more lives. The
regions; ii) compare four strate- ming algorithm authors highlight a resource
gies to programming the units allocation strategy that relies on
the affected locals anticipating future cases, known
as forward-looking. Based on data,
this strategy can render resource
allocation dynamically attractive
1175

13
 Table 3  (continued)
1176

References Outbreak/disease reported Purpose Main method/Theoretical approach Supply chain/Logistics/Operations

implications

13
Chick et al. (2008) Influenza Proposing an optimized model for Game theory/Optimization The lack of coordination between
SC vaccines dynamics, consider- the actors (government and
ing the coordination between manufacturers) can undermine
contractual actors the entire system and bring about
vaccines shortfalls. According
to the authors, while the global
social optimum is hard to achieve,
a contract based on cost-sharing
between the parties (government
and manufacturers) can impulse an
optimum social accomplishment
Einav et al. (2014) Epidemic/outbreak control Development of insights to support Panel The OSCM capabilities are critical
efficient response to pandemic for an effective care response.
and disasters Resource distribution strategies
are fundamental for an adequate
response due as the demand seems
higher than the available capacity.
Besides, distance may appear as a
barrier to logistics
Orenstein and Schaffner (2008) Influenza Presentation of the lessons learned Conceptual The logistics and SCs are decisive in
about the Influenza logistics and supporting public health humani-
SC management, considering the zation. However, these activities
vaccines production, distribution, need full ownership by policymak-
and management ers to avoid shortages
Annals of Operations Research (2022) 319:1159–1196
 Table 3  (continued)
References Outbreak/disease reported Purpose Main method/Theoretical approach Supply chain/Logistics/Operations
implications

Wang et al. (2009) Epidemic/outbreak control Development of an emergency Multi-objective stochastic pro- To develop optimal solutions for the
model for supply networks that gramming model/SEIR epidemic emergency medicine distribu-
takes into account the latent diffusion model/Optimization/ tion, latent periods exert a huge
period influence in the demand Genetic algorithm/Monte Carlo constraint, causing delays and
during the epidemic simulation/Numerical example amplifying the uncertainty. One
strategy to be considered is the
allocation of the materials by
employing collaboration between
areas, in an integrated way
Hessel (2009) Influenza Discussion for vaccines SC plan- Conceptual The fight against the pandemic
ning, production and distribution, requires a high-level involvement
with related challenges of policymakers in the entire SCs
Annals of Operations Research (2022) 319:1159–1196

to plan and develop the required

logistics capabilities at all stages.
Thus, all members of the OSCM
should operate in an integrated
model with the governments
Paul and Venkateswaran (2020) Epidemic/outbreak control Proposing policies for mitigating Exploratory modelling and The SC plays a fundamental role in
the effects of the epidemic while analysis (EMA) methodology/ the epidemic’s control by ensuring
considering deep uncertainty Machine learning/Scenario dis- an adequate flow of medicaments
covery/Supply shortage model and minimizing shortages. In this
regard, the period covered by the
epidemic can be influenced by the
SC activities, especially in relation
to resources shortages
1177

13
 Table 3  (continued)
1178

References Outbreak/disease reported Purpose Main method/Theoretical approach Supply chain/Logistics/Operations

implications

13
Khokhar et al. (2015) Influenza Analysis of the SC distribution of Secondary data (China Animal The suppliers and retailers need to
the chicken meat and its influ- Industry Yearbook/China’s work in a more integrated model.
ence on the spreading of H7N9 Center for Disease Control Cutting-edge technology systems
and Prevention/China National can cope with this challenge. For
Health and Family Planning instance, all SC members (includ-
Commission) ing governments) can put in more
traceability measures
Ivanov (2020a) Coronavirus (COVID-19) Prediction of the impacts of epi- Case study/Simulation The epidemic outbreaks exert a
demic outbreak on SCs destructive effect on SCs. The
development of strategies to pre-
dict such impacts in different time
horizons can support the perfor-
mance of the SC and mitigate any
adverse effects. A simulation is a
powerful approach as it enables us
to compare wrong and successful
elements in the SC response plan
Ivanov and Dolgui (2020b) Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion and analysis of the Conceptual/Game-theoretical The COVID-19 outbreak is forcing
intertwined supply network, model supply networks operate with
considering survivability and different and robust resilience
resilience in the COVID-19 approaches. The paper indicates
context that intertwined supply networks
(highly interconnected and resil-
ient networks) need to be viable to
guarantee long-term survivability
effects, especially in exceptional
events
Annals of Operations Research (2022) 319:1159–1196
 Table 3  (continued)
References Outbreak/disease reported Purpose Main method/Theoretical approach Supply chain/Logistics/Operations
implications
Ivanov and Das (2020) Coronavirus (COVID-19) Investigation of the SC resilience Simulation The full range of COVID-19 disrup-
in a COVID-19 disruption tions in SCs remains unknown.
scenario In this paper, the auhtors provide
valuable and unique insights to
better mitigate risks related to the
COVID-19 and reinforce resilience
to the pandemic. They further
highlight the value of creating
flexible, redundant and real-time
SCs in order to dynamically realo-
cate demand and supply
Annals of Operations Research (2022) 319:1159–1196
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1180 Annals of Operations Research (2022) 319:1159–1196

Table 4  Analysis of papers by a Epidemic/outbreak reported Number of Percentage

content analysis approach papers

Influenza 14 43.75
Epidemic/outbreak control 6 18.75
Cholera 4 12.50
Ebola 3 9.38
Coronavirus (COVID-19) 3 9.38
Malaria 1 3.13
Smallpox 1 3.13
Total 32 100.00

Lastly, concerning the “Supply chain/Logistics/Operations implications”, several inter-

esting points were raised. For example, resource management is a great preoccupation
(Rachaniotis et al. 2012; Savachkin and Uribe 2012; Long et al. 2018). In this regard, it
should be noted that logistics and SCs play an essential role in coordinating and integrating
the multiple members’ activities (Mamani et al. 2013), including manufacturers, transpor-
tation, hospitals, government, etc. Moreover, in a recent study, Paul and Venkateswaran
(2020) emphasized the impact of the SC in order to control epidemic outbreaks. The
authors pointed out that the SCs should provide an adequate flow of medicaments and
other products to avoid materials shortage. Thus, SCs can influence the duration of an epi-
demic outbreak.
Recent studies by Govindan et al. (2020) and Ivanov (2020a) also presented the devast-
ing impact of the COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 on global SCs. This does not mean that inter-
esting and new findings on the impact of COVID-19 on SCs have not been obtained. For
instance, SCM decision-makers are henceforth well equipped to make use of the available
technologies and relevant techniques (including simulation) to predict impacts on their
organizations/firms’ SCs. Besides, analytics techniques to support decision-making in
logistics operations (Griffith et al. 2019; Dubey et al. 2019b), and social media analytics
to support emergency operations decisions (Fosso Wamba et al. 2019), play an essential
role in order to minimize the epidemic impacts on SCs. Moreover, it is well demonstrated
that the SC performance response relies on the scale and timing of the disruption spreading
and not on the upstream disruption duration. Ivanov (2020a) went on identifying a positive
effect of disruptions on SCs responses (upstream and downstream sides) to an epidemic,
when the disruption is simultaneous.

4 Research agenda for operations and supply chain management

at the times of COVID‑19 pandemic

This section deals with the main theoretical and managerial implications of our study with
the objective to tease out a research agenda for OSCM at the times of COVID-19 pan-
demic. To start, Table 5 synthesizes open research questions following the identified litera-
ture gaps and makes important suggestions to scholars and practitioners.
We organized the literature gaps and open questions in three clusters, namely: the mod-
eling cluster, the organizational cluster, and the technology cluster. The modeling cluster
covers optimization, simulation or other OR methods. In the organizational cluster, we

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 Table 5  Proposed research agenda for investigating the effects of epidemic outbreaks on SCs
Literature gap Open research questions (ORQ) Related literature Cluster Examples of OR/OM/miscellaneous
and opportunities approaches to support the ORQ

Models for sustainable operations How can sustainable operations Sarkis (2012), Sarkis et al. (2020) Modeling Mixed-integer linear programming
in vulnerable SCs due to the models assist vulnerable SCs, and de Camargo et al. (2019) Game theory
epidemic outbreak. Development especially in the developing Dynamic capabilities
of sustainable SCs and produc- economies, to minimize the
tion systems supply effects (e.g., shortages,
abusive prices)?
Circular economy (CE) to mitigate How could CE contribute to Chiappetta Jabbour et al. (2020) Modeling Complexity theory
the insufficient supply and pro- minimizing the effects of the and Sarkis et al. (2020) Systems dynamics
duction capacities production and supply shortages
in global SCs?
New optimization models for How can smart cities promote new Israilidis et al. (2019) and Qi and Modeling Robust optimization
resource allocations in dynami- resource allocation models to Shen (2018) Stochastic programming
Annals of Operations Research (2022) 319:1159–1196

cally changing environments support the dynamic allocation

with consideration of smart cities in epidemic epicenters?
Optimized response of humanitar- How can the global SCs prepare Baidya and Bera (2019), Çankaya Modeling Systems dynamics
ian operations and maintain a flexible humani- et al. (2019), Fosso Wamba Mixed-integer linear programming
tarian operation response plan to (2020), Rodríguez-Espíndola Sociotechnical systems
a pandemic crisis anywhere in et al. (2018) and Turrini et al.
the world? (2019)
Home care drones to minimize How can drones be used to provide Pulver and Wei (2018) and The Modeling Bayesian networks
the transportation lead-time in a prompt response in the supply Ebola Gbalo Research Group Markov chains
essential medical supplies network (distribution cent- (2019) Petri nets
ers, hospitals, home) so as to Dynamic capabilities
transport medical samples and
medicaments to quarantined
people?
New and severe disruption effects What are the worst and most Ivanov (2019a, 2019b, 2020a) and Modeling/organizational Agent-based simulation
on SCs severe disruption effects on Pavlov et al. (2019b) Discrete-event simulation
SCs that lead to a ripple effect Organizational information process-
amplification? ing theory
1181

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 Table 5  (continued)
1182

Literature gap Open research questions (ORQ) Related literature Cluster Examples of OR/OM/miscellaneous
and opportunities approaches to support the ORQ

13
Co-benefits generated from the What co-benefits can be brought Cao et al. (2019) and Giordano Organizational Agent-based simulation
harmful effects of the epidemic from negatively impacted SCs et al. (2020) Discrete-event simulation
outbreaks in SCs within the society and within Knowledge-based systems
organizations? For instance,
water pollution minimization,
CO2 emissions, etc.
Cannibalization of global SCs How does the cannibalization of Euronews (2020), NZ Herald Organizational Systems dynamics
(e.g., countries fighting for medi- global SCs create an impact in (2020), The Wall Street Journal Discrete-event simulation
cal supplies) the short and long-term perspec- (2020) and Vatican News (2020) Contingency theory
tives? What is the role of resil-
ience in minimizing the impact
of cannibalization?
Relocalization of manufactur- What are the effects of relocating Forbes (2020a) and United Nations Organizational Discrete-event simulation
ing firms and the impact on manufacturing firms (e.g., com- Conference on Trade and Devel- Systems dynamics
outsourcing strategies ing back to or leaving China)? opment—UNCTAD (2020) Dynamic programming
Resource-based view
Investigation of the blockchain’s How can blockchain technologies Dubey et al. (2020) and Wamba Technology Complexity theory
contribution in the minimiza- support a responsive traceability and Queiroz (2020) Reliability theory
tion of the impacts of epidemic system to avoid or mitigate the Dynamic capabilities
outbreaks on SCs effects of shortages on SCs?
Review of artificial intelligence How can AI techniques contribute Fragapane et al. (2020), Bag et al. Technology Systems dynamics
(AI) techniques to support SC to developing responsive SC (2020) and Dwivedi et al. (2019) Discrete-event simulation
models in epidemic contexts models in epidemics scenarios? Organizational resilience
3D printing to replace the missing What are the main applications Beltagui et al. (2020) and Tatham Technology Complexity theory
suppliers of 3D printing to replace urgent et al. (2015) Systems dynamics
missing supplies during an epi- Diffusion of innovation theory
demic outbreak? e.g., Personal
Protective Equipment (PPE),
mechanical ventilators to combat
COVID-19, among others
Annals of Operations Research (2022) 319:1159–1196
Annals of Operations Research (2022) 319:1159–1196 1183

consider different forms of SC organisation, including intertwined supply networks (Ivanov

and Dolgui 2020b), to improve collaboration with SCs and their interrelation with the
society, etc. For example, the co-benefits generated by epidemic outbreaks are practically
unknown, along with the cannibalization of global SCs and the relocalization of manufac-
turing firms. The technology cluster is dedicated to digital technologies, additive manufac-
turing, and data analytics. For instance, it addresses the question of how to use disruptive
technologies to manage SC disruptions during epidemic crises.
Besides, in the last column of Table 5, we highlighted some suggested and adher-
ent theories of operations (OR/OM) and miscellaneous theories to support the exami-
nation of the challenging open research questions (ORQ). In this vein, we identified
from our literature analysis suitable OR/OM approaches such as network and com-
plexity theories (e.g., Bayesian networks, complexity theory, reliability theory, petri
nets, and Markov chains), mathematical optimization (e.g., mixed-integer linear pro-
gramming, stochastic programming, metaheuristics, robust optimization, and dynamic
programming), and simulation (e.g., agent-based simulation, discrete-event simulation,
and systems dynamics). Moreover, these approaches could be integrated with empiri-
cal theories in exploring operations such as dynamic capabilities, absorptive capacity,
organizational resilience, sociotechnical systems, organizational information process-
ing theory, knowledge-based systems, contingency theory, resource-based view, and
diffusion of innovation theory.
In that context, these theories could bring valuable support in exploring the impact
of epidemic outbreaks on SCs. For instance, the mathematical optimization theories
can be used develop optimized plan and schedules to avoid shortages, and also deal
with ramp-up demands (e.g., toilet paper manufacturers ramping up production due to
COVID-19). Simulation techniques allow to develop robust resilience plans, consider-
ing new and severe disruptions (e.g., agent-based simulation allows to examines opera-
tions behaviours taking into account simultaneous interactions of multiple agents, dur-
ing and after the COVID-19). Furthermore, due to the complexity of the COVID-19,
these approaches could be integrated with some network and complexity theories (e.g.,
combining some simulation theory with reliability analysis, decision-makers could
develop complex scenarios to cope with resource scarcity and simultaneous supply and
demand substitutions required at each stage of a pandemic).
In Fig. 4, we summarise the results of our analyses as an emerging research agenda
on OSCM under pandemics and epidemic outbreaks.
The research agenda in Fig. 4 is teased out the Tables 3 and 5. It shows open
research questions as an extension of our findings during a systematic literature review.
Now we discuss the individual components presented in Table 5 and Fig. 4 in detail.

4.1 Preparedeness focus

Pre-allocation of resources and emergency distribution planning have been identified

in our our SLR as the most visible topics with the preparedeness focus whereas opti-
mization methods dominate this area. In this sense, the research opportunities relate
not only to optimization models, but also to the need to implement more sophisticated
simulation techniques (Currie et al. 2020). In addition, queuing theory, scheduling and
forecasting approaches need to be explored in pandemic contexts. Our study sheds
more light on the importance of managing and allocating resources in an adequate

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1184 Annals of Operations Research (2022) 319:1159–1196

Fig. 4  Emerging research agenda on OSCM under pandemics and epidemic outbreaks

way (Pavlov et al. 2019a). This means that decision-makers and policy-makers should
improve their organizations’ SC resilience and response capacity by employing not
only optimization techniques but also simulations (Paul et al. 2019). First, an in-
depth understanding of status quo in SC responsiveness and resilience can be achieved
through simulations (Currie et al. 2020; Ivanov 2020a; Ivanov and Das 2020). Second,
simulation is essential to predict massive disruption scenarios and the required perfor-
mance capacities.

4.2 Digital focus

Questions related to cutting-edge technologies like blockchain and AI techniques, for

improved response traceability, are fundamental to provide robust, resilient SC models. On
the other hand, there is an urgent need to explore the 3D printing/additive manufactur-
ing to efficient and timely deployment of medical equipment. Moreover, the first analy-
ses of COVID-19 pandemic impacts on SCs and production systems suggest that Industry
4.0 and digital manufacturing can play a critical role for SC resilience and ripple effect
control (Ivanov and Dolgui 2019; Hosseini et al. 2019). In terms of visibility and digital
control, the firms that are successful in digital manufacturing networks seem to be better
positioned in crisis times and in the coordination of future recovery processes (Choi et al.
2020; Dubey et al. 2019a; Ivanov et al. 2019; Panetto et al. 2019; Ivanov 2020a, b; Ivanov
and Dolgui 2020a, b; Ivanov and Das 2020; Ni 2020).

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Annals of Operations Research (2022) 319:1159–1196 1185

4.3 Adaptation and recovery focus

We found several tensions related to SC responses to past disruptions caused by epi-

demic outbreaks. From the theoretical perspective, we found that the OSCM litera-
ture has addressed the past disruptions caused by the epidemic outbreaks by employ-
ing mainly optimization approaches, especially in relation to resources allocation
(Büyüktahtakın et al. 2018; Liu and Zhang 2016; Parvin et al. 2018; Rachaniotis et al.
2012). Managers and practitioners need to continuously monitor SCs, as no stage of
epidemics’ impacts should be left unturned before any recovery plan is properly imple-
mented and managed. To this end, one of the main lessons from the extant literature
is that the OSCM field exerts a great influence on the duration of epidemics (Paul and
Venkateswaran 2020). Therefore, the OSCM should operate from the resilience per-
spective (Dubey et al. 2019c; Dolgui et al. 2020), avoiding medicament and equipment
shortages, providing a dynamic and responsive operation model at the different stages of
the outbreak. In addition, recent studies on the disruptions of SCs provoked by epidemic
outbreaks showed that simulation is an important technique to predict and develop plans
to respond to such impacts on OSCM (Currie et al. 2020; Ivanov 2020a; Ivanov and Das
2020; Ivanov and Dolgui 2020b).

4.4 Ripple effect focus

Our next finding is that epidemic outbreaks could significantly impact the SCs trigger-
ing a highly and unexplored ripple effect (Ivanov 2020a). The main important theoreti-
cal implication resides in reinforcing the need to deepen the understanding of the simul-
taneous deployment of the ripple effects and epidemic outbreaks on SCs (Ivanov and
Das 2020; Ivanov and Dolgui 2020b). The ripple effect is a very strong stressor to SCs
and their ongoing collapses amid pandemic coming from the disruption propagations
through the networks. Adversely, the situation is stimulated by simultaneous disruptions
and uncertainties in demand and supply. The existing knowledge in modelling the SC
ripple effect (Dolgui et al. 2018) is multi-faceted and deserves to be analysed for the
unique set of factors shaping SC adaptations during and after a global pandemic.

4.5 Sustainability focus

The sustainability focus builds around consideration of SC ecosystems and viability.

An SC can be considered viable if it is able to maintain itself and an ecosystem balance
(i.e., achieve homeostasis) (Ivanov and Dolgui 2020b). Sarkis et al. (2020) point to the
potentials of the circular economy to ensure long-term SC survivability. Moreover, there
are multiple feedback cycles in the SC ecosystems, including both positive and negative
feedbacks. As pointed in Ivanov (2020b), the interactions of the SC and nature are con-
cerned with a positive cycle of using natural resources and a negative cycle of emissions
as potential contributors to climate change. The interaction with society results in posi-
tive feedbacks such as technological innovations and workforce development although
negative feedbacks in terms of possible labor strikes (disruptions at SC resilience level)
or global pandemics (disruptions at SC survivability level) also exist. In this vein, the

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1186 Annals of Operations Research (2022) 319:1159–1196

analysis can be brought to the levels of intertwined supply networks (ISN), i.e., “the
entirety of interconnected supply chains which, in their integrity secure the provision of
society and markets with goods and services” (Ivanov and Dolgui 2020b). Finally, the
issues of humanitarian logistics and SCs build a central perspective in the sustainability
focus (Besiou and van Wassenhove 2020; Dubey et al. 2020; Fosso Wamba 2020). From
this perspective, additional research is essential to address concerns of process improve-
ment in humanitarian operations (Larson and Foropon 2018).

4.6 A discussion note on SC resilience at the pandemic times

Based on our findings, we propose a classification of relevant aspects of SC resilience, in

view of the particularities of some epidemic outbreaks and global pandemics. The results
of our analysis show that the traditional SC risk and resilience understanding (Tang 2006;
Govindan et al. 2017; Chen et al. 2019; Dolgui et al. 2018; Ivanov et al. 2018; DuHadway
et al. 2019) is restrictive in tackling long-term, global pandemic disruptions. Therefore, we
call for new approaches (Ivanov 2020a; Ivanov and Das 2020; Ivanov and Dolgui 2020b)
or for the extension of the existing ones. Based on the categorization proposed by Ivanov
and Dolgui (2019), we therefore propose to categorize the SC resilience actions in the con-
text of pandemic disruptions, using four main categories, namely: systems, process, con-
trol, and recovery, as reported in Table 6.
A set of critical components of SC resilience can be selected for each category. Besides,
it should be noted that all the categories coming into play in the epidemic outbreak are
interralated and correlated (e.g., preparedness, response, recovery). As such, faced with
important disruptions caused by epidemics, SCs need to reinforce their resilience, includ-
ing throught increased SC viability (Ivanov and Dolgui 2020b).
The available systems are considered a critical aspect of resilience performance by the
literature (Aven 2017; Ivanov and Dolgui 2019). They encompass physical and digital
components when it comes to SCs (Queiroz et al. 2019a), and support the various interac-
tions of the epidemic outbreak.
The process category is focused on the interplay between flexibility and product man-
agement (Dolgui and Proth 2010; Ivanov and Dolgui 2019), as acknowledged by the rel-
evant literature. This category calls for a detailed network for the flow of products while
avoiding shortages. One efficient strategy for coping with these is related to the process
redundancy (Ivanov and Dolgui 2019).
The control theory is a well-established conceptualization scheme that has been suc-
cessfully used in the area of SC disruption and resilience (Ivanov et al. 2016, 2017; Spie-
gler et al. 2016). Severe epidemic outbreaks, including the COVID-19, fall in this category

Table 6  Categorization for SC resilience to epidemic outbreaks

Category Components

Systems Structures, resources, capacities, interactions (responses, coordination)

Process Distribution, transportation, procurement, production, resources allocation, flexibility
Control Inventory control, sourcing control, manufacturing control, resilience as KPI in optimization
models
Recovery Manufacturing production, human labor, transportation network, suppliers, production flex-
ibility

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Annals of Operations Research (2022) 319:1159–1196 1187

and are amplified, more than ever, by the complexities of the system’s dynamics. Conse-
quently, new control policies to inventory, sourcing and manufacturing, coupled with the
resilience of the KPI’s in optimization models, are required.
The recovery stage plays a fundamental role in SC resilience (Ivanov and Dolgui 2019;
Elluru et al. 2019). It includes different policies for network reconfiguration (Ivanov et al.
2016), with the engagement and interaction of internal and external resources (e.g., manu-
facturing production, human labor, transportation network, suppliers, and production flex-
ibility). It should be noted that because of shortages (human labor, products) and restric-
tions on the transportation network (World Economic Forum—WEF 2020a), recovering
from disruptions caused by the pandemic vary according to regional policies and may face
some delays. The recovery process could be accelerated by relying on alternative sources,
along with the adoption of production flexibility strategies (World Economic Forum—
WEF 2020a). For instance, by streamlining their production systems, manufacturing firms
could produce more medical supplies to shorten the impacts of epidemics on SCs (World
Economic Forum—WEF 2020a).

5 Conclusion

The coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak shows that pandemics and epidemics can seriously
wreak havoc on supply chains (SC) around the globe. In this study, we presented a system-
atic analysis of the impacts of epidemic outbreaks on SCs guided by a structured literature
review that collated a unique set of publications on epidemic outbreak impacts on SCs.
Utilizing the outcomes of our analysis, we tease out a series of open research questions that
would not be observed otherwise.
In terms of findings and contributions, this study showed that the interplay between
SCs and epidemic outbreaks has so far traditionally focused on resource allocation prob-
lems and supply medicals distribution, using optimization approaches and epidemic mod-
els (Büyüktahtakın et al. 2018; Mamani et al. 2013; Rachaniotis et al. 2012). It has also
revealed that such an interplay has been dominated by the influenza epidemic, though other
relevant epidemic outbreaks are being reported in the SC context.
In this respect, the COVID-19 pandemic is already devastating global SCs. It should be
recalled that investigating the impacts of epidemic outbreaks on SCs is a new but robust
research stream (Ivanov 2020a). This study ended up providing an insightful and challeng-
ing research agenda to scholars and practitioners interested in exploring more deeply the
effects of epidemic outbreaks on SCs. In this vein, we identified robust literature gaps and
open question opportunities, which we classified in three clusters (modeling, technology,
and organizational).
Most centrally, we proposed a framework of OSCM at the times of COVID-19 pan-
demic that spans six perspectives, i.e., adaptation, digitalization, preparedness, recovery,
ripple effect, and sustainability. Despite the development of novel classifications and cate-
gorizations as well as articulation of novel theoretical tensions, our study harbors a number
of limitations. The query used to search the keywords on the databases could be a barrier in
exploring other SC-related themes. In the future, additional studies could adopt and extend
our protocol for much better results. In addition, this work has been limited by the scarcity
of research about the effects of epidemic outbreaks on SCs. Only 32 documents were found
to fully meet our research protocol. Furthermore, as the COVID-19 effects on SCs are
still going on and look increasingly devastating, there is not much room for comparative

13
1188 Annals of Operations Research (2022) 319:1159–1196

analysis. Considering such limitations, especially in the literature gap related to the effects
of epidemic outbreaks on SCs, we have proposed research agenda for future studies.
In future, one promising research avenue is to frame the analyses of SC behaviors during
and after the pandemic in the vein of viability. Viability nicely integrates resilience, adap-
tation, and sustainability views the importance of which in the analysis of SCs under pan-
demic conditions has been noted and reported (Ivanov 2020b; Ivanov and Dolgui 2020b;
Sarkis et al. 2020). Another interesting research avenue is to enrich the OSCM methodical
variety by the methods from other disciplines; e.g., to investigate the application of SEIR
and epidemic diffusion models to the analysis of SC ripple effect or to study the appli-
cations of ecological modelling to SC viability. These and other directions open new, at
times unforeseen research avenues where the OSCM can make substantial contributions to
theory and practice in order to help firms to remain impactful and relevant during and after
the COVID-19 pandemic.

Acknowledgements Open Access funding provided by Projekt DEAL. The authors thank Associate Editor
and two anonymous reviewers for their invaluable comments which helped to improve this paper immensely.

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License,
which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long
as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Com-
mons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article
are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the
material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not
permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly
from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit [Link]

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1196 Annals of Operations Research (2022) 319:1159–1196

Affiliations

Maciel M. Queiroz1 · Dmitry Ivanov2 · Alexandre Dolgui3 ·

Samuel Fosso Wamba4
Maciel M. Queiroz
[Link]@[Link]
Alexandre Dolgui
[Link]@imt‑[Link]
Samuel Fosso Wamba
[Link]‑wamba@tbs‑[Link]
1
Postgraduate Program in Business Administration, Paulista University - UNIP,
São Paulo 04026‑002, Brazil
2
Supply Chain and Operations Management, Berlin School of Economics and Law, 10825 Berlin,
Germany
3
IMT Atlantique, LS2N ‑ CNRS, La Chantrerie, 4 rue Alfred Kastler, 44307 Nantes, France
4
Information, Operations and Management Sciences, TBS Business School, 1 Place Alphonse
Jourdain, 31068 Toulouse, France

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