METR 4403/5403
Synoptic Exercise
2/9/2022
Material gathered by Rich Thompson
To answer in-class questions go to: [Link]/severeclass641
GOALS
1) Construct a scientifically reasoned
forecast from limited basic data.
1) Develop a reproducible forecast
process.
How do we do this?
Using concepts such as:
- QG reasoning
- PV reasoning
- Jet Streak Dynamics
- etc...
Keep in mind pt 1...
Right now we’re focusing on the evolution of
synoptic scale features
associated with severe weather events.
Details regarding the thunderstorm environments,
mesoscale and storm-scale influences will be
covered later.
Keep in mind pt 2...
There are several different forcing mechanisms for
ascent/descent in the atmosphere.
Be sure to consider:
- Which mechanisms are the strongest?
- Where is there overlap of multiple mechanisms?
- What influence will these mechanisms have?
Lee Cyclogenesis
Rocky Mountains
X
X
X
X
X
X
L
L
Will there be a strong surface cyclone at 00Z?
- If so, where?
- Use QG & Lee Cyclogenesis arguments for
or against
L
Around 1002 mb
Around 995 mb
Contributing Factors
- Mid-level shortwave trough
west/northwest of the Four Corners
(stronger QG influences west of the
Plains)
- Strongest mid-level flow over and
across the higher terrain of NM (vs.
weaker and more parallel flow along
the terrain to the north).
- Result = deepening lee cyclone in
southeast CO region.
Forecast the 925 mb cyclone at 00 Z
Where will it be located?
Will it deepen?
- Use QG arguments to support your answer!
X
X X
L
L
L
2a
Contributing Factors
1) Strongest mid-level flow is moving over the 2 1
higher terrain in the morning, but is exiting by
the afternoon.
1) Lee cyclogenesis/troughing continues (due to 2b
persistent zonal flow over the S. Rockies), but
becomes secondary to:
2a) Low-level warm advection over OK
2b) Inferred DCVA over KS/OK
- Net result = non-deepening low that shifts
east/southeast.
Contributing Factors
1) Strongest mid-level flow is moving over the
higher terrain in the morning, but is exiting by
the afternoon.
1) Lee cyclogenesis/troughing continues (due to
persistent zonal flow over the S. Rockies), but
becomes secondary to:
2a) Low-level warm advection over OK
2b) Inferred DCVA over KS/OK
- Net result = non-deepening low that shifts
east/southeast.
Forecast the 850 mb cyclone at 12 Z
Where will it be located?
Will it deepen?
- Use QG arguments to support your answer!
Contributing Factors
- Began with large cyclone in the lee of the
northern Rockies.
- Intense jet streak aloft moves into the northern
Plains.
- Lift from left exit region.
- Inferred lift via DCVA
- Result = deepening low over Dakotas/West MN.
Forecast the 925 mb cyclone at 00 Z
Where will it be located?
Will it deepen?
- Use QG arguments to support your answer!
Contributing Factors
- Coupled upper-level jet structure.
- Inferred lift from DCVA ahead of the approaching shortwave trough.
- Strong low-level warm air advection across Maine.
- Warm ocean waters from the Gulf Stream allow for reduced low-level static
stability/steepening low-level lapse rates, which allow for easier/efficient deepening of the low.
Deducing Surface Flow Patterns
We’ll see the progression of the pattern over several days.
Given a single 500 mb chart, try to anticipate:
1) The expected surface pressure pattern
1) The resulting low-level moisture return pattern from
the Gulf of Mexico into the southern Plains
Deducing Lapse Rates
Given:
12 Z and 00 Z 700 mb charts
Predict:
Which location will see the
steepest 700-500 mb lapse rates?
Deducing Lapse Rates
Given:
00Z 700 mb and 500 mb charts
Predict:
Which location will see the
steepest 700-500 mb lapse rates?
Congrats, you’re done!
Key Takeaways:
- Even with limited data, you can use synoptic concepts to create a forecast.
- These analytical skills aid in interpreting model output.
- Always think about what you can observe and infer before jumping to conclusions!
Finally: Practice! Practice! Practice!