Probability & Statistics Exam Solutions
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Powered by AICorrelation in a linear regression model measures the strength and direction of the linear relationship between variables. With a correlation coefficient r = 0.969, derived from R^2 = 0.939, the very high correlation indicates a strong positive linear relationship between variables. This strong correlation suggests reliability in predicting one variable based on the other using the model, thus enhancing the model's explanatory power .
The p-value in a linear regression model assesses the null hypothesis that the slope is zero (no effect). A p-value less than 0.001 indicates strong evidence to reject the null hypothesis. In the given model, with a p-value < 0.001 for the slope's t-test, the slope is statistically significant, confirming that the independent variable makes a meaningful contribution to predicting the dependent variable, thus validating the model's usefulness .
Relative frequency in frequency tables is calculated as the frequency of each class divided by the total number of observations. In the provided table, for class 33-39, relative frequency is 2/30 = 0.0667. It provides a proportion of each class relative to the overall dataset, allowing comparisons across different classes irrespective of sample size, thus helping in understanding distribution. It aids in visualizing the proportionate magnitude of each class, enhancing interpretability of data .
Increasing the confidence level from 95% to 99% in statistical estimation problems results in wider confidence intervals. For example, with n=30 and nσ=3, the confidence interval changes from (7.193, 9.341) at 95% confidence to (6.856, 9.678) at 99% confidence. The interval widens to account for higher certainty about the parameter value, reducing the risk of making incorrect inferences .
The coefficient of variation, which in this case is about 17.3%, provides a normalized measure of dispersion about the mean, useful for comparing variability across different datasets. The slight left skew indicates the mean is slightly less than the median, suggesting a distribution with tails longer on the left side. Together, they imply that while the data has moderate variability, its skewness might affect statistical interpretations, such as the use of means vs. medians for central tendency .
In a Poisson distribution with parameter λ, both the mean and the variance are equal to λ. This equality reflects the distribution's property where the average occurrence rate (mean) is also a measure of the spread of the distribution (variance). For instance, with λ=5, the mean is 5 and the variance is also 5, which signifies that the distribution is centered around 5 with a typical spread modeled by this variance .
To analyze for outliers, we use the fences method: Lower Fence = Q1 - 1.5*IQR and Upper Fence = Q3 + 1.5*IQR. With n=30, Q1=48, Q3=62.5, and IQR=14.5, the fences are calculated as 26.25 and 84.25. All data points fall within these fences, indicating that there are no outliers in the dataset .
The probability of a normally distributed variable exceeding a certain value is evaluated using the z-score, which is calculated as z = (X - μ) / σ, where μ is the mean and σ is the standard deviation. For example, to find P(X≥10) where X~N(8.8, 2.7), the z-score is calculated to be 0.444, leading to P(X≥10) ≈1 - Φ(0.444) ≈0.3284. The z-score's significance lies in standardizing the variable, allowing for the use of the standard normal distribution table to determine the probability .
The intersection probability P(A ∩ B) helps determine dependency by comparing it to the product of individual probabilities P(A) and P(B). If P(A ∩ B) = P(A) * P(B), the events are independent. In this document, P(A ∩ B) = 0.2, whereas P(A) * P(B) = 0.3, showing these events are not independent, as the intersection probability varies from the product of probabilities .
The probability of the insurance agent selling policies to all five individuals, given a survival probability (p) of 2/3 and number of trials (n) equal to 5, is calculated using the binomial distribution formula P(X=k) = (n choose k) * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k). For P(X=5), where k=5, the formula simplifies to (2/3)^5, resulting in a probability of approximately 0.1317 .