forecasts data fluctuations around we contant variance
my mean
trend shows a gradual shift
seasonal same repeating patterns hourly daily
cyclical trendrepeated at monthly or yearly intervals
irregular unexplained peak or dip
moving average forecast MAI
horizontal pattern
No significanttrend
NO significant seasonal component
No obvious cyclical component
has an irregularcomponent
MA Ftt sumof data value k
forecast error actualforecast minus average forecast
K nu
sector
treatments
c
Mse SSE
ions
2 trend projection
trend irregular component
NO significant seasonal component
NO obvious cyclical component
uses a linear equation
equation Tt bot bit
I in p L Is name or zero
bit slope times the time period
can be interpreted positive slope shows an UPWARD trend or negative slope shows a DOWNWARD even
MA Ftt sumof data value k
forecast error actualforecast minus average forecast
ye ye
uses STAT MODE on calculator
1 select mode setup to get stats
2 select option 2
3 enter t values as a and frequencies as y
4 select shift Ac and then options reg
S Even
3 multiplicative model
trend seasonal and irregular component
has a fixed pattern
is a time series decomposition
deseasonlises seasonlises values
Yt actual time series value at t
Ye trende seasonale irregular
MA Ftt sumof data value k
forecast error actual forecast minus average forecast
ye ye
moving average
I
seasonal irregular value detrendend values finds seasonal irregular effect
ye moving average t
deseasonized values shows trend of values with a linear equation
botbi
ie
or zero
I peintEEfeneh me'jingame
correction factor what you want what
you have
n seasonantirregular sum of those averages
unadjusted value Soc correction factor 2