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Effects of energy consumption and ecological footprint on CO2 emissions: an

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Environment, Development and Sustainability
[Link]

Effects of energy consumption and ecological footprint

on ­CO2 emissions: an empirical evidence from Pakistan

Sohail Abbas1 · Shazia Kousar2 · Amber Pervaiz3

Received: 17 July 2020 / Accepted: 29 December 2020

© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. part of Springer Nature 2021

Abstract
This study aims twofold; first, to analyze the effects of traditional energy, renewable
energy, ecological footprint, urbanization, transportation on carbon dioxide emission
­(CO2), and second to investigate the association between the emission of the C ­ O2 and tem-
perature over Pakistan. The present investigation utilized long-term series data from 1970
to 2018 and employed the autoregressive distributed lag model to examine the relationship
between modeled variables. Moreover, this investigation employed fully modified ordinary
least-squares and dynamic ordinary least-square model to confirm the robustness of the
results. The study found an insignificant impact of traditional energy, renewable energy,
­ O2 in the short-run period. However, in the long run, tradi-
and ecological footprint on C
tional energy, the ecological footprint has significant and positive, while renewable energy
has a negative and significant association with ­CO2. Moreover, the study found a signifi-
cant impact of urbanization and transportation on ­CO2 emission into short and long-run
periods. The results indicate that impact of C­ O2 emission, urbanization and transportation
on average temperature in Pakistan is positive and significant in short-run as well as in
long-run period. This research indicates that appropriate policies should be devised for the
energy sector like Government should discourage traditional consumption of energy and
encourage the consumption of renewable energy in the industrial sector.

Keywords Traditional energy · Renewable energy · Urbanization · Transportation · Fully

modified ordinary least square · Dynamic ordinary least square

* Sohail Abbas
[Link]@[Link]
Shazia Kousar
shaziabilal2002@[Link]; [Link]@[Link]
Amber Pervaiz
amberlcwu1234@[Link]
1
Department of Geography, Konkuk University, Seoul, South Korea
2
Department of Economics, University of Jhang, Jhang, Punjab 35200, Pakistan
3
The Superior College, Department of Management Sciences, Lahore, Pakistan

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 S. Abbas et al.

1 Introduction

Green House Gases (GHGs) particularly the carbon dioxide ­(CO2) emission in the environ-
ment is considered the basic element of environmental degradation (Mbarek et al. 2018).
The anthropogenic activities; deforestation, soil erosion and combustion of the carbon-
based fuels are the major sources of the carbon dioxide (­CO2) emission in Pakistan (Ali
et al. 2019; Ahmed et al. 2020; Abbas et al. 2020). Food and Agriculture Organization
(FAO) (2013) also reported that an increase in carbon dioxide emission would 15–30%
negatively affects the agricultural productivity till 21 century. An increase in ecological
footprint, energy consumption, urbanization, poor water resource management, and food
shortage causes to increase ­CO2 emission. Boko et al. (2018) stated that energy sector con-
tributes the 68% emission in the Green House Gases stocks in the 2010. Such a percentage
ratio consists of 90% of the carbon dioxide ­(CO2) emission, 9% methane, and remaining
1% included nitrous oxide and other gases (Yousuf et al. 2014).
For the mitigation of climate risk, the community at the global level is trying to mini-
mize the mean temperature change to 20 °C till the twenty-first century. The pledges, which
is recognized as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), acquiesced
through climate change 21 Conference of Parties organized in December 2015 (Wirth
2015). However, to expressively importance with ­CO2 emission, the detailed investigation
on each country is immensely important for the achievement of the Intended Nationally
Determined Contributions.
The contribution of the ­CO2 emission (0.8%) was observed from Pakistan, which is less
than 1 percent at the global level. For this purpose, the Pakistan government is devoted to
overcoming the effects of temperature and rainfall through the adaptation approach as well
as reduction mechanism of the C ­ O2 emission (Eckstein et al. 2019). For this purpose, the
Government was submitted the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions to the 21st
Conference of Parties (COP21). The major roots of this theme were observed in INDC
included the Vision of Pakistan (2025) and Climate Change Policy at the national scale
(2012).
From 2010 onward, Pakistan is undergoing a severe the energy crisis. In 2018, 65.8
million toe primary energy supply was observed in Pakistan. This supply consists of con-
tribution with oil (31.4%), gas (48.8%), LPG (0.6%), coal (7.3%), hydroelectricity (10.6%)
and nuclear electricity (1.1%) (Rehman and Deyuan 2018). From 2000 onward, the major
source of electricity in Pakistan was hydro. Therefore, due to unplanned urbanization and
economic instability, the government of Pakistan makes the short-term rules and regu-
lations. Further, the Government of Pakistan is also trying to minimize the reduction in
energy consumption as the electricity shortfall exceeds 3000 MW in 2016. In Pakistan
Vision (2025), the Government of Pakistan has planned to overcome the shortfalls of elec-
tricity through coal resources.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) mostly consists of energy utilizations
in Pakistan. This project cost is $46 billion. This project fulfills the electricity requirement
through the coal (capacity 7560 MW) and renewable energy consumption projects (capac-
ity 2790 MW) (Hof et al. (2017). The cost of these both projects is $8.8 billion and $6.4
billion respectively. This study facilitates and gives the knowledge framework to associate
and distinction of the objectives (INDCs in COP21) and ­CO2 emission reduction themes.
Several studies have been conducted using the statistical economics-based methods
to investigate the effect of energy consumption, urbanization and socioeconomic param-
eters in various nations internationally (Abbas et al. 2018; Asumadu-Sarkodie and Owusu

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Effects of energy consumption and ecological footprint on ­CO2…

2016c; Mohiuddin et al. 2016; Samuel et al. 2019). Asumadu-Sarkodie and Owusu (2016a)
has estimated the effect of the electricity consumption, industrial, transportation on ­CO2
emission in Benin through an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique. The study
was showed the long-run association between ­CO2 emission and energy consumption and
industrialization (Asumadu-Sarkodie and Owusu, 2016b). Asumadu-Sarkodie and Owusu
(2016c) also reported the impact of urbanization, energy and transportation on the ­CO2
emission through vector error correction model (VECM) and ordinary least-squares (OLS)
regression. Wang and Feng (2017) also investigated the effects of the population, energy
consumption and GDP on the ­CO2 emission through the regression-based autoregressive
distributed lag (ARDL) and vector error correction models (VECM).
From 2000 onwards, the decreasing trend of the gross domestic product (GDP) of Paki-
stan has been estimated. The various factors such as energy crises, unplanned urbaniza-
tion, transportation, ecological deterioration and C ­ O2 emission found to be harsh which
has the negative impact on the economic strength of Pakistan during the similar era. How-
ever, there is necessary to investigate the long- and short-term effects of renewable energy,
traditional energy, ecological footprint, urbanization and transportation on C ­ O2 emission
and temperature. The objective of this study is to estimate the effects of renewable energy,
traditional energy, ecological footprint, urbanization and transportation on C ­ O2 emission
and also to observed the relationship between ­CO2 emission and temperature over Pakistan
using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model.

2 Data and methodology

2.1 Study area: Pakistan

Pakistan has the best spectacular landscapes in Asia. It is started from the Arabian Sea and
the southern direction to the north, is covered by the mountain hills. Furthermore, some
sites are with Egypt and Mesopotamia borders. Pakistan is the part of South Asia that is
covered in the border with the Arabian Sea, Afghanistan and Iran, and China. Pakistan
is situated between 61—78°N and 23.6—38°E. The total area is covered by 796,096 Km2
(Fig. 1). The area of Pakistan is varied terrain to Indus plains which consist of the deserts,
mountains, and Plateau in the west. The elevation ranges from 0 to 8611 m. The K2 world’s
largest mountain is situated in Pakistan. The total arable land is estimated to be approxi-
mately 27.87% with a permanent crop of 0.87% and others at 71.26%. The total cultivated
area 24% is reported from which 80% is irrigated. 4% is a forest land cover measured and
31% is not fit for the agricultural purpose. The total 97 weather stations in Pakistan are
situated. The Punjab, KPK, Azad Kashmir, Sindh, Baluchistan, and Geophysical center
Quetta has 28, 19, 05, 27, 09 weather observatories.
Southern Punjab is the second most vulnerable among the nine agro-ecological zones
while Sindh is among the first most vulnerable place concerning its impact on human
health and climate change (Aslam et al. 2017). The shifting of this rainfall season is not
based on a spatial scale, but it is also based on a temporal scale, late or early monsoon
onset also causes huge losses. The environmental condition of the agricultural system is
directly impacted by the climatic extreme because these systems are highly sensitive. Food
production is highly influenced by the change in the climatic system, water availability and
temperature intensity (Kirby et al. 2017). A temperature which is higher than normal case
has radically reduced arid, sub-humid zones, and semiarid yields (Sultana et al. 2009).

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 S. Abbas et al.

Fig. 1  Location and physiographic map of the Pakistan.

This study utilized eight variables and an estimated two equations. This study utilized
­ O2 emission for environmental degradation, the urban population for urbanization, fossil
C
fuel energy consumption (% of total) for traditional energy consumption, renewable energy
consumption (% of total final energy) for renewable energy consumption, machinery, and
transport equipment (% of value-added) for transportation, Global hectares (GHA) per per-
son for ecological footprint and average temperature for temperature.

2.2 Description of the data

This study used several important variables. The dependent variable is carbon emission,
while independent variables are the use of renewable energy, traditional energy consump-
tion, and ecological footprint. Moreover, this study also used average temperature as the
dependent variable and ­CO2 as an independent variable to estimate the role of ­CO2 emis-
sion in average temperature. This study also used transportation and urbanization as con-
trol variables in both cases. The annual data about renewable energy, traditional energy,
ecological footprint, urbanization, and transportation were collected from different sources
(Table 1) for a period of 48 years (1970 to 2018).

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Effects of energy consumption and ecological footprint on ­CO2…

Table 1  Variable and measurements and sources

Variable name Measurement Sources

CO2 CO2 emissions (kt) WDI

Urbanization Urban population WDI
Traditional energy Fossil fuel energy consumption (% of total) WDI
Renewable energy consumption Renewable energy consumption (% of total final energy) WDI
Transportation Machinery and transport equipment (% of value-added) WDI
Ecological footprint Global hectares (GHA) per person Global
footprint
network
Temperature Average temperature WDI

2.3 Econometric model specification

The present study examines the effect of traditional energy, renewable energy, and ecologi-
cal footprints on C­ O2 emission. This study further investigates the impact of C ­ O2 on aver-
age temperature. For this purpose, the study utilizes the data of Pakistan throughout 1970
to 2018. The study applies Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF), Phillips–Perron (PP), and
Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) tests of unit root for testing the stationarity
of data. From the detailed investigation, unit-root tests show that the data are stationary
at mix order like some variables are stationary at level i.e., I (0), and some are stationary
at first difference i.e., I (1). Therefore, the current investigation employs an autoregressive
distributed lag model (ARDL) for the estimation of short-run and long-run results. The
robustness of the results is tested with by FMOLS and DOLS. Characteristics of all investi-
gated variables are assessed through descriptive statistics. For the investigation of the inte-
grated order of all observed dependent and independent variables in Eqs. 1, 2, stationarity
of the investigated data time series were identified. To achieve such purposes, The unit
root test such as Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF), Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin
(KPSS), Phillips–Perron (PP), and regression-based ARDL bounds test were applied.
Besides, Fig. 2 represents the schematic flow of the study.
This study estimated two equations; in the first equation, the current study has investi-
gated the effect of renewable energy, traditional energy, and ecological footprint on envi-
ronment degradation, while in the second equation, the study has examined the impact of
­CO2 on average temperature. Moreover, the study used urbanization and transportation as
control variables. The present study used the regression-based ARDL bound test approach
for empirical estimation of short-run and long-run relationships. This study also used JJ
(Johansen and Juselius, 1990) method to find out the values of co-integration among mod-
eled variables. For the achievement of such a way, the investigated variables of the current
study must be selected in the same order. Subsequently, to overcome this issue, the Autore-
gressive Distributed Lag regression-based model was used which is suggested by the
Nkoro and Uko (2016) for the estimation of the long-run co-integration. The main advan-
tage of this method is found equally efficient either observed parameters are integrated at I
(0), I(1), or which are integrated mutually. The current statistical study used the time series
annual based, so this study used KKPS suggested by (Kwiatkowski et al.1992; Ng and
Perron 2001; Dickey and Fuller 1981; Phillips and Perron (P-P) 1988) to investigate the
stationarity of time series data.

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 S. Abbas et al.

Fig. 2   A schematic diagram of

the study 1. Descriptive statistics

2. Correlation analysis

3. Unit Root test

4. Lag selection criteria

5. ARDL bounds test

6. ARDL Regression

7. ARDL Diagonestic Tests

8. ARDL Normality Tests

9. Robust Analysis

Additionally, if some series are stationarity at levels I (0) and some are at first differences
I(1); the ARDL bound test is appropriate to check the long-run co-integration between the
variables of the study. Though EG (Engle and Granger 1987), maximum likelihood-based by
(Johansen and Juselius 1990) approaches are famous in literature for co-integration analysis
but the Autoregressive Distributed lag (ARDL) procedure is considered a more convenient
and reliable method for co-integration analysis because it calculates co-integration. The vari-
ables would be considered stationarity at levels I(0) or stationarity at the first difference I(1)
or order of integration combined. Moreover, Autoregressive Distributed lag (ARDL) helps to
control the problem of endogeneity and small sample size and produce reliable coefficients
in the long run. Autoregressive Distributed lag (ARDL) bound test to produce F. statistics
(Table 6) (Pesaran 1997; Pesaran et al. 2001; Abbas et al. 2016). If the calculated Autore-
gressive Distributed lag (ARDL) F-statistics value is smaller than LCB, then there is no co-
integration among the series while if F statistics value is found to be higher than the upper
bound then there is co-integration among modeled series. After checking the co-integration
among the series, this study has investigated lag selection criteria to determine the optimal lag
for short-run ARDL dynamics.
This study develops the following two equations to analyze the hypothesis:

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Effects of energy consumption and ecological footprint on ­CO2…

n n n
∑ ∑ ∑
ΔCO2t = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1 ΔECt−k + 𝛽2 Δreenergyt−k + 𝛽3 Δtradenergyt−k
k=1 k=1 k=1
n n
∑ ∑
+ 𝛽4 Δecofootprintt−k + 𝛽5 Δurbanzationt−k (1)
k=1 k=1
n
∑
+ 𝛽6 Δtransportationt−k + 𝜇t
k=1

n n n
∑ ∑ ∑
ΔTmeant = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1 ΔECt−k + 𝛽2 ΔCO2t−k + 𝛽5 Δurbanizationt−k
k=1 k=1 k=1
n (2)
∑
+ 𝛽6 Δtransportaiont−k + 𝜇t
k=1

3 Resulst and discussion

3.1 Descriptive measures

The annual time series in the current investigation has been used for two tests; first
the influence of energy consumption and ecological footprint on environment degrada-
tion and second the impact of ­CO2 emission on the temperature in the case of Paki-
stan. Table 2 indicates the descriptive statistics of all modeled series. The results of the
Jarque–Bera indicate that series are normally distributed with constant mean, variance,
and zero co-variance.

Table 2  Descriptive statistics

CO2 Reenergy Tradenergy Transport Urbanization Ecofootprint Tmean

Mean 0.566 51.136 48.621 5.177 3.770 77,925,005 20.319

Median 0.574 51.122 50.601 5.113 3.773 69,448,736 20.387
Maximum 0.891 58.091 60.930 8.479 4.505 1.37E + 08 21.140
Minimum 0.308 45.347 35.295 2.635 2.886 38,245,546 19.395
SD 0.177 3.500 8.848 1.095 0.474 31,221,877 0.493
Skewness 0.072 0.111 − 0.209 0.806 − 0.436 0.348 − 0.225
Kurtosis 1.695 2.274 1.506 4.654 2.240 1.759 1.925
Jarque–Bera 2.658 0.889 3.710 8.226 2.062 3.121 2.774
Probability 0.265 0.641 0.156 0.016 0.357 0.210 0.250
Sum 20.951 1892.049 1798.978 191.538 139.499 2.88E + 09 995.626
Sum Sq. dev 1.122 441.058 2818.168 43.148 8.098 3.51E + 16 11.648
Observations 37 37 37 37 37 37 37

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 S. Abbas et al.

3.2 Correlation analysis

Similarly, Table 3 shows the results of the correlation matrix for Eq. 1 which reveals that
only renewable energy has a negative correlation with environment degradation while all
other variables like traditional energy consumption, ecological footprint, urbanization, and
transportation have a positive and significant correlation with environmental degradation.
­ O2 emission has a positive and significant
Similarly, Table 4 for Eq. 2 indicates that the C
correlation with an average temperature.

3.3 Unit root tests

The present investigation checks the stationarity of data sets through the Autoregres-
sive Distributed lag ADF test and employed PP and KPSS unit root test to verify the
estimated outcomes come from the ADF test. The results are reported in Table 5 and
results indicated that all variables are stationary at first difference except average

Table 3  Correlation analysis of Eq. 1

Variables CO2 Urbanization Reenergy Ecofootprint Tradenegy Transport

CO2 1
Urbanization .926** (.000) 1
Reenergy − .516**(.000) .434** (.002) 1
Eco-footprint .981**(.000) .944** (.000) − .550**(.000) 1
Tradenegy .976** (.000) .860** (.000) − .484** (.000) .948**(.000) 1
Transport .404* (.045) .171 (.413) -.393 (.052) .503* (.010) .403*(.046) 1

Table 4  Correlation analysis of Variables CO2 Urbanization Tmean

Eq. 2
CO2 1
Urbanization − .926** (.000) 1
Tmean .645** (.000) − .643** (.000) 1
Deforestation − .794** (.000) .860** (.000) − .581** (.000)

Table 5  Unit root test of the Variables ADF PP KPSS

variables
First difference
D ­(CO2) − 6.355126* − 6.349208* 0.141391*
D (Ecofootprint) − 7.684251* − 7.648112* 0.114685*
D (Reenergy) − 6.090662* − 6.064971* 0.072890**
D (Tradenegy) − 5.947780* − 5.940443* 0.425013**
D (Urbanization) − 3.176312* − 3.176312* 0.279594**
Level
Tmean − 4.086131* − 4.295487 0.725815*
Transportation − 3.208073* − 5.405852 0.474830

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Effects of energy consumption and ecological footprint on ­CO2…

Table 6  Results of optimal lag orders

Lag Log L LR FPE AIC SC HQ

0 − 872.6943 NA 6.01e + 10 39.00864 39.20938 39.08347

1 − 671.0834 349.4589 23,626,164 31.15926 32.36371* 31.60827*
2 − 642.2113 43.62905* 20,754,917* 30.98717* 33.19531 31.81034
3 − 622.0176 26.02741 28,738,007 31.20078 34.41263 32.39813
4 − 596.8658 26.82858 35,890,673 31.19404 35.40958 32.76555
*
Indicates lag order selected by the criterion
LR sequential modified LR test statistic (each test at 5% level); FPE Final prediction error; AIC Akaike
information criterion; SC Schwarz information criterion; HQ Hannan-Quinn information criterion

Fig. 3   Polynomial Graph Inverse Roots of AR Characteristic Polynomial

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

temperature and transportation which are stationary at level. Therefor, ARDL is best
suited technique to investigate the estimators when some variables are stationary at
level and some are stationary at first difference.

3.4 Selection of lag order

Before employing the ARDL bound test, this study employed the criteria of the lag
length to explain the autoregressive length of time series data and resulst are reported
in Table 6. This study adopted famous lag selection criteria like LR, SC criteria from
Schwarz (Schwarz 1978); Hannan–Quinn criterion (Hannan and Quinn 1979); FPE
(Akaike 1969); AIC (Akaike 1979) to find appropriate lags. According to SC, 1 lag is
appropriate while as per LR, FPE, AIC, and HQ two lags are appropriate for estima-
tion purposes. Therefore, most of the criteria recommended that two lags are appropri-
ate; so the study adopted two lags while estimating the ARDL bound test. Moreover,
the inverse root of AR characteristics of the polynomial graph (Fig. 3) also indicates
that all blue dots are in the circle; so two lags are appropriate.

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 S. Abbas et al.

3.5 The ARDL bounds test for co‑integration

This study utilized the ARDL bound test to check the long-run cointegration among the
modeled variables and results are reported in Table 7. Results indicated that computed
F-statistics values are 12.0554*, 5.036958*, 4.593259*, and 5.143033* which are above
the UCB limit at 10, 1, and 5% levels of significance, so the current study may reject the
null hypothesis of no co-integration. Resulst confirmed that there are four basic co-integra-
tion vectors.
Moreover, this study adopted some diagnostic tests to check the normality, homosce-
dasticity, and serial correlation for the error term and outcomes of the study are shown in
Table 6 which expressed that error term is normally distributed, free from heteroscedastic-
ity and no serial correlation exist. Furthermore, the current investigation applied Johansen
and Juselius (1990) to indicate the long-run co-integrationand results are shown in Table 8
which expressed that at least four co-integrated equations exist in the system of equations.

3.6 Long‑run and short‑run estimations

The current investigation adopted ARDL co-integrating approach to investigate the short-
run relationship (Table 9). Results showed that renewable energy indicates an insignificant
link in the short-run with environmental degradation (β = 0.00091 ρ = 0.3691). Whereas,
renewable energy has a significant and negative effect in long run on the environmental
quality (β = . − 0.08491 ρ = 0.0000); Thus, in the long run as consumption of renewable
energy increases, it will cause to reduce environmental degradation. Contrary, traditional
energy consumption has a significant and positive relationship to environmental degrada-
tion in both the short-run and long-run (β = 0.10517 ρ = 0.0004; β = 0.015018 ρ = 0.0000).
Results show that with an increase in consumption of traditional energy, it would lead to an
increase in environmental degradation.

Table 7  Results of ARDL Bounds testing for cointegration

Variables CO2 Reenergy Tradenergy Ecofootprint Transport Urban

F. statistics 12.704* 2.56152 5.036958* 1.16411 5.143033* 1.55272

Critical values 10% 5% 1%
Lower Bound I(0) 2.12 2.45 3.15
Upper bound I(1) 3.23 3.61 4.43
Diagnostics test
R2 0.955 0.555 0.741 0.386 0.834 0.988
F. statistics 15.598 1.937 4.294 0.768 1.793 109.18
χ2 serial 2.100 1.193 1.196 6.011 3.954 1.821
− 0.204 − 0.551 − 0.550 − 0.050 − 0.471 − 6.235
χ2 arch 8.460 0.524 1.478 0.267 0.006 0.722
− 0.004 − 0.469 − 0.224 − 0.606 − 0.939 − 0.396
χ2 reset 1.464 1.626 0.616 1.645 0.987 2.664
(0.161) − 0.148 (0.5503) − 0.131 − 0.356 − 0.021
χ2 white 2.571 11.286 6.686 2.694 7.849 13.270
− 0.277 − 0.420 − 0.571 − 0.975 − 0.797 − 0.209

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Effects of energy consumption and ecological footprint on ­CO2…

Table 8  Results of the Johansen Johansen co-integration test results

Co-integration test Unrestricted co-integration rank test (trace)
Trace hypothesis Trace statistic 0.05 critical value Prob.**

r≤0 75.53920 69.81889 0.0162

r≤1 48.43377 47.85613 0.0441
r≤2 29.79295 29.79707 0.0500
r≤3 11.95852 15.49471 0.1589
r≤4 3.278392 3.841466 0.0702
r≤5 15.27946 15.49471 0.0539
Maximum eigenvalue
r≤0 27.10544 33.87687 0.2578
r≤1 18.64082 27.58434 0.4428
r≤2 17.83443 21.13162 0.1362
r≤3 8.680127 14.26460 0.3137
r≤4 3.278392 3.841466 0.0702
r≤5 8.719399 14.26460 0.3103

Table 9  Results of long-run and Equation 1: Dependent variable: CO2, ARDL (2, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0)
short-run coefficients employing
the ARDL method Short-run coefficient

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob

D (Reenergy) 0.00091 0.00098 0.930422 0.3691

D (Tradenegy) 0.10517 0.002213 4.752836 0.0004
D (Ecofootprint) 0.00013 0.00014 0.928571 0.6360
D (Transportation) 0.007739 0.003314 2.335084 0.0362
D (Urbanization) 0.039351 0.019253 2.043929 0.0618
CointEq (-1) − 0.697000 0.146111 − 4.770331 0.0004
Long-Run Coefficients
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob
Reenergy − 0.08491 0.01385 − 6.13068 0.0000
Tradenegy 0.015089 0.002239 6.740592 0.0000
Ecofootprint 0.001321 0.000234 5.256410 0.0000
Transportation 0.011103 0.004843 2.292418 0.0032
Urbanization 0.056458 0.028733 1.96491 0.0623
C − 0.584119 0.228750 − 2.553523 0.0240
Equation 2: Dependent variable: TMEAN
Short-run coefficient
D ­(CO2) 4.647258 2.110848 2.201608 0.0330
D (Urbanization) 1.185027 0.622822 1.902673 0.0624
D (Transportation) 0.228216 0.115422 1.977231 0.0611
Coint Eq (-1) − 0.880601 0.145283 − 6.061299 0.0000
Long-run coefficients
CO2 1.533445 0.297737 5.150343 0.0000
Urbanization 0.184307 0.041481 4.443166 0.0000
Transportation 0.177161 0.083901 2.111573 0.0002
C 19.277961 0.203226 94.859948 0.0000

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 S. Abbas et al.

Fig. 4   (a) Cumulative sum of recursive residual and (b) Cumulative sum of square of recursive residual
(Eq. 1)

Fig. 5   (a) Cumulative sum of recursive residual and (b) Cumulative sum of square of recursive residual
(Eq 2)

Moreover, the results indicate that ecological footprint has an insignificant association to
environment degradation in short-run while positive and significant association in long run
(β = 0.00013 ρ = 0.928571; β = 0.001321 ρ = 0.0000). Similarly, transportation and urbani-
zation have a positive and significant association of with the quality of the environment in
both periods (β = 0.007739 ρ = 0.0362; β = 0.001321 ρ = 0.0392; β = 0.039351ρ = 0.0618;
β = 0.056458 ρ = 0.0623). The results of a second equation indicate that ­CO2 has a signifi-
cant positive impact on the mean temperature in the short-run as well as in long-run period
(β = 4.647258 ρ = 0.0330; β = 1.533445, ρ = 0.000); so as CO2 emission increases climate
will become more harsh and global warming will increase.

3.7 Diagnostic and parameter stability tests

The recursive residual graphs of the cusum and cusum square test for Eqs. 1, 2 indicate
that both models are stable (Figs. 4, 5). Before concluding the study, the current study also
utilized fully modified and dynamic ordinary least-square approaches (FMOLS and DOLS)
to test the robustness of estimators that already have been obtained from ARDL (Tables 8,
10).

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Effects of energy consumption and ecological footprint on ­CO2…

Table 10  Diagnostic tests of the Test F. Statistics P value

model
χ2 serial 0.520594 0.6081
χ2 arch 1.390655 0.2545
χ2 white 0.940649 0.5238
χ2 reset 3.726125 0.0775
CUSUM Stable
CUSUM square Stable

The FMOLS and DOLS techniques produces reliable estimates even in the presence
of endogeneity, serial correlation, and omitted variable biases. The estimated results
from FMOLS and DOLS are reported in Table 11 which revealed a positive and signifi-
cant association of traditional energy consumption, ecological footprint, transportation,
and urbanization with environmental degradation. Similarly, ­CO2 emission, urbaniza-
tion, and transportation have a significant and positive long-run association with aver-
age temperature. Therefore, all the estimators are consistent with results that have been
found from ARDL co-integration method. Moreover, the ARDL long-run coefficients
are robust because the estimators that have been obtained from FMOL and DOLS tech-
niques are also similar to long-run ARDL coefficients.

Table 11  Difference of FMOLS and DOLS functions of Eq. 1, 2

Equation 1: Dependent Variable: ­CO2
Variables Method: FMOLS Method: DOLS
β S.E t-value β S.E t-value

Reenergy − 0.031 0.0158 − 1.962 − 0.0443 0.0193 − 2.2954

Tradenegy 0.106428 0.04493 2.368751 0.10897 0.03115 3.45936
Ecofootprint 0.20123 0.01856 10.8596 0.76047 0.050912 14.9404
Transportation 0.07847 0.00657 11.94368 0.0940 0.00770 12.1967
Urbanization 0.041511 0.017110 1.91198 0.06499 0.031053 2.09307
C 0.205658 0.244273 0.841921 0.042054 0.209879 0.20037
R2 0.968430 0.976486
Adjusted R-squared 0.957907 0.970298
Equation 2: Dependent variable: Tmean
CO2 1.569743 0.281269 5.580936 1.643590 0.308495 5.327764
Urbanization (-1) 2.319607 1.106299 2.096727 3.107854 1.381027 2.250392
Transportation 0.176504 0.089822 1.965055 .15356 .07865 1.95244
C 19.29710 0.192495 100.2473 19.22504 0.218466 87.99997
R2 0.436537 0.517297
Adjusted R2 0.424287 0.470204

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 S. Abbas et al.

4 Discussion

Empirical based estimated results revealed that in the long-run period traditional energy,
the ecological footprint has a positive and significant relationship with carbon dioxide
emission ­(CO2) while, the renewable energy has negative significant links to carbon diox-
ide emission ­(CO2). Furthermore, the ARDL long-run coefficients are robust because the
estimators which have been obtained from the FMOL and DOLS methods are consistant
with long-run coefficients of ARDL.
Moreover, the positive relationship between traditional energy and C ­ O2 emission
in long-run and short-run period are consistent with the previous studies (Ang 2008;
Alkhathlan and Javid 2015; Ahmad et al. 2016; Adewuyi and Awodumi 2017; Tiba and
Omri 2017). Tiba and Omri (2017) described that extensive use of energy leads economic
growth on one side but on the other side it also increases the carbon dioxide emission and
ecological footprint. Similalrly, Adewuyi and Awodumi (2017) also established that energy
consumption positively enhance carbon dioxide emission ­(CO2) and ecological footprint
which causes to enhance environmental degradation in the ecosystem and biosphere (Ang
2008; Apergis and Payne 2009, 2010; Shahbaz et al. 2013; Boontome et al. 2017).
Pakistan is a developing economy and is experiencing rapid industrial growth during
the last few decades; so Pakistan is using traditional energy sources to meet it rapid grow-
ing enegy demand. The traditional energy is being produced from the excessive use of the
natural gas and oil that are considered the major drivers of environmental problems as they
­ O2 (Singra et al. 2019; Saleem and Shujah-ur-Rahman 2019; O’Ryan
increase the level of C
et al. 2020). Further, most of the industries are relying on power generation and 41% of the
total energy used in power generation comprises traditional energy (Sadorsky 2009; Shah
2020). Moreover, massive smoke expulsion from industries leaves devastating impacts on
quality of environment and also negatively affect economy, different sector of the economy
like agriculture and forestry, and human beings in Pakistan (Ahmed et al. 2015, 2020).
Similarly, Yang et al. (2017) stated that emission of GHGs like C ­ O2, nitrous oxide and
methane causes environmental degradation. Moreover, Anser (2019). Shahbaz et al. (2013)
established that use of traditional sources of energy like fossil fuel and wood as energy
source in daily life devastatingly boost carbon dioxide emission C ­ O2 emission (Chen et al.
2019).
This study also indicates that renewable energy consumption has significant and nega-
tive relationship with ­CO2 emission in the longrun; as consumption of renewable energy
increases, it will cause to decrease CO2 emission. Our results are consistent with the exist-
ing literature (Abolhosseini et al. 2014; Mbarek et al. 2018; Hasnisah et al. 2019). (Gish
et al. 2019) reported that renewable energy is produced naturally i.e., through the solar sys-
tem, wind tides, and hydropower, which significantly reduce GHGs (carbon dioxide, sulfur
dioxide, nitrogen oxide, and additional ecological cargos) from the energy.
Moreoever, this study found that ecological footprint is significantly related to carbon diox-
ide emission (­CO2) in the long-run. The resulst are consistent with previous studies (Fiala
2008; Vackar 2012; Szigeti et al. 2017). One possible explanation is that anthropogenic activ-
ity is one of the main sources of global warming (increased level of toxic gases i.e., carbon
dioxide, sulfur oxide, and nitrogen oxide in the temperature). Human species are overwhelm-
ing 25% additional resources than the biocapacity of the earth which causes global warm-
ing (Fiala 2008). According to the report of global footprints, almost 20% of global warm-
ing is caused by human activities, out of which the majority is rising from the primary
production stage of food. Szigeti et al. (2017) stated the insignificant relationship between

13
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Effects of energy consumption and ecological footprint on ­CO2…

ecological footprint and carbon dioxide emission (­ CO2) in the short run, but significant effect
was observed in the long-run period.
Additionally, this study also indicates a significant and positive relationship between car-
bon dioxide emission ­(CO2) and average temperature in the short-run and long-run period.
Results are consistent with previous studies (Florides and Christodoulides 2009; Zhou et al.
2019). It can be explained as the presence of C ­ O2 that increases the greenhouse gas effect in
the surroundings which, resultantly, increases the mean temperature of the earth. Further, ther-
mal energy is surrounded by the atmosphere that leads the plants to become warmer which in
turn increases the average temperature (Kweku et al. 2017). Zhou et al. (2019) described that
carbon dioxide emission (­CO2) has the positive significant effect on the mean temperature.
The increases in carbon dioxide emission ­(CO2) have periodically increased the earth’s tem-
perature, which negatively affects the human health, agricultural production, energy genera-
tion and energy consumption.
The results of UNFCCC (2007) and Intended Nationally Determined Contributions to the
21st Conference of Parties (COP21) also support the outcomes of the this study that tradi-
tional energy, the ecological footprint has a positive significant association to the carbon diox-
ide emission (­ CO2), while, the renewable energy has negative significant links to carbon diox-
ide emission ­(CO2) in the Pakistan. Similar results have been reported in the previous studies
(Shahbaz et al. 2013; Ahmed et al. 2015; Rehman and Deyuan 2018; Saleem and Shujah-ur-
Rahman 2019; Shah 2020).

5 Conclusion

The purpose of the present study examines the effects of traditional energy, renewable energy
and ecological footprints on carbon dioxide emission ­(CO2). Furthermore, the study investi-
gates the impact of carbon dioxide emission ­(CO2) on the average temperature in Pakistan.
The statistical techniques were applied to investigate the effects of the energy consumption
and ecological footprint on carbon dioxide emission (­ CO2) over the period of 1970–2018.
Results revealed that the traditional energy, ecological footprint, transportation and urbani-
zation significantly and positively affect carbon dioxide emission ­(CO2) in the short-run and
long-run period. However, renewable energy and ecological footprint have an insignificant rela-
tionship with ­CO2 emission in short-run period while have a significant association with C ­ O2
­ O2, urbanization and transpor-
emission in long-run period. The results of Eq. 2 indicated that C
tation significantly and positively affect average temperature in Pakistan. Moreover, this study
also employed FMOLS and DOLS to investigate the robustness if short-run and long-run asso-
ciation between modeled variables and found that results are consistent ARDL investigation.

Compliance with ethical standards

Conflict of interest There is no potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

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