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CAIE AS LEVEL
MATHEMATICS (9709)
STATISTICS 1
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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHEMATICS

1. Representation of Data
1.1. Types of Data

1.2. Stem-and-Leaf Diagrams 1.3. Box-and-Whisker Plots

Used to represent data in its original form Five figure summary:
Each piece of data split into 2 parts; stem & leaf Lowest and highest values
Leaf can only by 1 digit and should be written in ascending Lower and upper quartiles
order Median
Always include a key on your diagram Mean & standard deviation most useful when data roughly
symmetrical & contains no outliers
Median and interquartile range typically used if data
skewed or if there are outliers.

Advantage: easily interpreted and comparisons can easily

Advantage: contains accuracy of original data
be made.
Back-to-back stem-and-leaf diagrams
1.4. Histograms
Note the order of the left side
A bar chart which represents continuous data
Bars have no space between them
Area of each bar is proportional to frequency

F requency = F requency Density × Class Width

For open ended class width, double the size of previous
class width and use this
If range ‘0 − 9’ then class width is ‘−0.5 ≤ x ≤ 9.5’

1.5. Cumulative Frequency Graphs

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHEMATICS

Upper quartile = 75th percentile value

Lower quartile = 25th percentile value 2. Measure of Central
Median = 50th percentile value
Tendency
Interquartile Range = U pper Quartile − Lower Quarti

When finding the median and quartiles, draw in vertical and 2.1. Mode
horizontal dashed lines on the graph, and find the
corresponding x-axis value(s) Ungrouped data: mode is the most frequently occurred
Points are plotted at upper class boundaries value
Join points together with straight lines unless asked to draw Grouped data: modal class is the class with highest
a cumulative frequency curve frequency density
Not suitable if the data values are very varied
1.6. Key Points:
2.2. Median
1. Add up preceding frequencies in the table to get the
cumulative frequency Middle value when data is ordered
th
2. Plot points at the upper limit of the class interval If n odd, median = 12 (n + 1) value
​

3. Ensure the curve through the points is smooth 1 th

If n even, median = 2 n value ​

Not affected by extreme values

Estimating Median from Grouped Frequency Table:

x Frequency f Cumulative Frequency
10 − 20 4 4
20 − 25 8 12
25 − 35 5 17
35 − 50 3 20

Solution:
Use cumulative frequency to find the middle value i.e.

1.7. Skewness 20 ÷ 2 = 10

Symmetrical: Median line lies in the middle of the box (i.e. ∴ you are finding the 10th value
UQ – median = median – LQ) The 10th value lies between 20 and 25
Positively skewed: Median line lies closer to LQ than UQ
(i.e. UQ – median > median – LQ)
Negatively skewed: Median line lies closer to UQ than LQ
(i.e. UQ – median < median – LQ)

(12 − 4) : (25 − 20)

(12 − 10) : (25 − M edian)
12 − 10
25 − M edian = × (25 − 20)
12 − 4
M edian = 23.75

2.3. Summation notation

The summation notation is used throughout the syllabus to
denote the sum of data values or probabilities.

∑ xi = x1 + x2 + x3 + ⋯ + xn
​ ​ ​ ​ ​

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHEMATICS
Where k is a constant. Given that the mean of these 40 values
This is the sum of all x values till the nth value. of x is 34, find the value of k .
It should also be known that: Answer
∑(x − k)
∑ a = a + a + a + a + ⋯ + a = an [Where a is a cons
∑(x − k) 520
+ k = 34 ⟹ + k = 34
40 40
​ ​

The sum of a constant number n times is a × n.

Now we can solve for k
It is also possible to re-write a summation:
520
∑(x − a) = ∑ x − ∑ a = ∑ x − an k = 34 −
40
= 21 ​

2.4. Mean
Example 2
Sum of all data values divided by number of values nx

x=
∑ xi ∑(x − 50) = 144 and ∑ x = 944
​

n
or Find the value of n.
Answer
∑ xi f i
x=
​ ​

∑ fi ∑ x − 50n = 144
​

Important as it uses all the data values As we know the value of ∑ x

Disadvantage: affected by extreme values
If data is grouped – use the mid-point of group as x 944 − 50n = 144 ⟹ 50n + 144 = 944

Coded mean So we can find the value of n as

800
Coded mean can be thought of as a transformation of all 50n = 800 ⟹ n = = 16
50
​

the data values in a data set. It is done to make

computation easier.

Coded mean of ungrouped data

3. Measures of Spread
x=
∑ (x − b)
+b ​
3.1. Variance of Discrete Data
n
Coded mean of grouped data The variance is a measure of spread.
It is denoted by σ 2 . It can be found using the formulas
∑ (x − b)f below:
x= +b ​

f 2
(xi − x)
∑
​

Where f is the corresponding frequency to a value x n

​

n
Grouped Mean ∑ ​
x2i − x2
​

n
The mean of 2 sets of data, or grouped mean, can be found i=1

by adding all the data values and the number of values. Coded Variance
Suppose a data set x exists where the sum of the data is ∑ x
Coded data does not affect the variance.
and the number of values is nx , and another data set y exists
​

This is because the actual spread of the values does not

where the sum of the data is ∑ y and the number of values is change when they are transformed.
ny .​

The mean of this data set is: ∑(x − b)2 ∑(x − b) 2

Variance = −( )​ ​

∑x + ∑y n n
Grouped mean =
nx + ny Grouped Variance
​

​ ​

Example 1
x

∑(x − k) = 520

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHEMATICS
or
The variance of 2 sets of data, or grouped variance, can be {W04-P06} Question 4:
found by adding the mean of squares and subtracting it The ages, x years, of 18 people attending an evening class are
using the mean squared. summarised by the following totals:
Suppose a data set x exists where the sum of the data is ∑ x ∑ x = 745, ∑ x2 = 33 951
and the number of values is nx , and another data set y exists i. Calculate the mean and standard deviation of the ages of this
group of people.
​

where the sum of the data is ∑ y and the number of values is

ii. One person leaves group and mean age of the remaining 17
ny .
​

people is exactly 41 years. Find age of the person who left and
standard deviation of the ages of the remaining 17 people.
∑ x2 + ∑ y 2 ∑x + ∑y 2
Grouped Variance = −( ) Solution:
nx + ny nx + ny
​ ​

​ ​ ​ ​

Part (i):

Example ∑ x2 ∑x
∑ y = 910∑ y 2 = 42850 σ= − x2 ​ ​
x= ​

n n
Answer
σ = 13.2 x = 41.4
xnx = 12 ∑12x = 15.5 ⟹ ∑ x = 12 × 15.5 = 186
​ ​

The combined mean of both data sets is: Part (ii):

186 + 910 The total age of the 18 people
= 34.25
12 + 20 ∑ x = 745
​

The standard deviation of the juniors is 1.2, meaning the

variance is 1.22 . Find the total age of the 17 people

∑ x2 ∑ x = 41 × 17 = 697
12̇2 = − (15.5)2 ⟹ ∑ x2 = 2900.28
12
​

Subtract the two to get the age

Now we can find the combined variance: 745 − 697 = 48 years
2900.28 + 42850 Calculating the new standard deviation
σ2 = − (34.25)2 = 256.63 Find the ∑ x2 of the 17 people
12 + 20
∑ x2 = 33 951 − 482 = 31 647
3.2. Standard Deviation
Find the standard deviation
The standard deviation is the measure of the spread of
values from the mean. 31 647
It is denoted by σ . σ= − (41)2 = 13.4
17
​ ​

If coded mean and sums are given, use as it is, standard

deviation not altered {S13-P62} Question 2:
A summary of the speeds, x kilometres per hour, of 22 cars
∑ (xi − x)2 ∑ passing a certain point gave the following information:
Standard deviation = Variance = = 2
​

n
​ ​

=∑ (x − 50) = 81.4 and ∑ (x − 50) = 671.0

Find variance of speeds and hence find the value of ∑ x2
∑ (xi − x)2 fi Solution:
Standard deviation = Variance = =
​ ​

∑ fi Finding the variance using coded mean

​ ​ ​

81.4 2
Variance = 671.0
22 − ( 22 ) = 16.81
​ ​

3.3. Variance in Frequency Table Find the actual sum

∑ x = 81.4 + (22 × 50) = 1181.4

∑ (xi − x)2 fi
​ ​

∑ fi
​

Put this back into variance formula

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHEMATICS

∑ x2 1181.4 2
16.81 = −( ) 4.2. Mutually Exclusive Events
22
​ ​

∴ ∑ x2 = 2900.5 × 22

∑ x2 = 63811

3.4. Range
Interquartile range = Upper quartile - Lower quartile
Range = Largest value - Smallest value

4. Probability
2 events which have no common outcomes or can’t happen
at the same time.
4.1. Basic Rules Examples of MEEs:
Looking Left & Looking Right.
All probabilities lie between 0 and 1 Coin toss: Heads & Tails.
P (A) = The probability of event A Cards: Kings & Aces.
Number of equally likely outcomes Examples of not MEEs:
P(A) = Cards: Kings and Hearts. (we have Kings of Hearts)
Total number of equally likely outcomes
​

Students: People who study French and Spanish (some

can study both)
P (A ) = 1 − P (A) = The probability of not A
′

Rules of MEEs:
To simplify a question, represent info in a tree diagram:
P (A and B) = 0
In other words, the probability of both events happening is 0
because they can’t occur at the same time.

P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B)
In other words, the probability of A or B happening is just their
individual probabilities being added together. Example:
P(Get King AND Queen) = 0
{S08-P06} Question 7: P(Get King OR Queen) = 1/13 + 1/13
A die is biased so that the probability of throwing a 5 is 0.75 Rules of Not MEEs:
and the probabilities of throwing a 1, 2, 3, 4 or 6 are all equal.
The die is thrown thrice. Find the probability that the result is 1 P (A and B) 
=0
followed by 5 followed by any even number.
Solution: Because events can happen at the same time, the probability of
The probability of getting a 1 both events happening is not 0.

1 − 0.75 = 0.25 P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B ) − P (A and B)

5 numbers ∴ 0.25 ÷ 5 = 0.05 When adding P(A) & P(B), we counted the “middle part” twice,
The probability of getting a 5 = 0.75 so we must subtract it.
The probability of getting an even number can be 2, 4 or 6 ∴ Example:
P(Get Kings or Hearts) = 4/52 + 13/52 – 1/52
0.05 × 3 = 0.15 1/52 comes from the king of hearts

Total Probability
0.05 × 0.75 × 0.15 = 0.00563

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHEMATICS

P (Attends and Chosen)

4.3. Conditional Probability P (Attends∣Chosen) =
P (Chosen)
​

Calculation of probability of one event given that another, 0.5

connected event, had occurred. P (Attends∣Chosen) = = 0.625
0.8
​

Conditional Probability formula:

Old Question Question 7:
P (A and B) Events A and B are such that P (A) = 0.3, P (B ) = 0.8 and
P ( B ∣ A) =
P ( A) P (A and B) = 0.4. State, giving a reason in each case,
​

whether A and B are

Or, in another form:
1. Independent
P (A and B ) = P (A) P (B ∣A) 2. mutually exclusive
"Probability of event A and event B equals the probability of Solution:
event A times the probability of event B given event A has Part (i)
occurred" A and B are not mutually exclusive because:
Example:
P (A and B) does not equal 0
4 3 Part (ii)
P (Get 2 kings) = ×
52 51 A and B are not independent because:
​ ​

Both events are “Get a king” but since one king has been picked P (A) × P (B ) does not equal 0.4
up, the next probability has changed. In other words, 51 3
is Instead of using P (A and B) = 0 or P (A and B) =
P (A) × P (B ) as a formula, we can also use it as a test to see
​

P (Get a king ∣ Get a king), the probability that you get a

king given that you’ve already gotten one. if such events satisfy the conditions to be a Mutually Exclusive
{S07-P06} Question 2: Event or Independent Event.
Jamie is equally likely to attend or not to attend a training {S11-P63} Question 4:
session before a football match. If he attends, he is certain to Tim throws a fair die twice and notes the number on each
be chosen for the team which plays in the match. If he does not throw. Events A, B, C are defined as follows.
attend, there is a probability of 0.6 that he is chosen for the A: the number on the second throw is 5
team. B: the sum of the numbers is 6
C: the product of the numbers is even
1. Find the probability that Jamie is chosen for team. By calculation find which pairs, if any, of the events A, B and C
2. Find the probability that Jamie attended the training are independent.
session, given that he was chosen for the team. Solution:
Probability of Event A = P(Any Number) × P(5)
Solution:
Part (i) 1 1
∴ P ( A) = 1 × =
Probability attends training and chosen 6 6
​ ​

0.5 × 1 = 0.5 Finding the probability of Event B

Number of ways of getting a sum of 6:
Probability does not attend and is chosen 5 and 1 1 and 5 4 and 2 2 and 4 3 and 3
1 1 5
0.5 × 0.6 = 0.3 ∴ P (B ) = ( × ) × 5 =
6 6 36
​ ​ ​

Total probability
Finding the probability of Event C
P (Chosen) = 0.3 + 0.5 = 0.8 One minus method; you get an odd only when odd multiplies
by another odd number:
Since we are looking for P (Chosen), we have to find every
possible way (every possible probability) that Jamie is chosen,
then sum them up.
Part (ii)
This is a conditional probability question, and we have to look
for P (Attends ∣ Chosen).

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHEMATICS

3 3
1 − P (C ) = ×
6 6
​ ​

5. Permutations and
1 − P (C ) represents the probability of getting an odd when
doing the product of the two numbers, which can only occur
Combinations
when an odd number is multiplied by another odd number
which is 36 × 36 . This method is much easier because if one
​ ​ 5.1. Factorial
does a direct method, they will have to count Even × Even and
Even × Odd. The factorial for a positive integer n can be expanded as
Making P (C ) the subject gives us:
n! = n × (n − 1) × (n − 2) × ⋯ × 3 × 2 × 1
3
∴ P (C ) = An interesting result obtained from factorials is
4
​

For an independent event, P (A and B) = P (A) × P (B) 0! = 1

1 A calculator can also be used to compute the value of a
P (A and B) = P (1 and 5) = factorial.
36
​

 P (A) × P (B)
=
Example 1
3 Compute the value of 5!
P (A and C) = P [(2, 5) + (4, 5) + (6, 5)] =
36 Answer
​

 P (A) × P (C)
= 5! = 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 120
2 Example 2
P (B and C) = P [(2, 4) + (4, 2)] = 100!
36 Compute the value of
​

98!
​

 P (B) × P (C)
= Answer
We can re-write the numerator as
∴ none are independent.
100 × 99 × 98 × 97 × ⋯ × 3 × 2 × 1 ⟹ 100 × 99 × 98
As said from the previous worked question, we use the
equation P (A and B) = P (A) × P (B) not as a formula but So the fraction is
as a test to see whether two events are independent or not.
100 × 99 × 98!
4.4. Independent Events 98!
​

Clearly 98! cancels out in the numerator and denominator,

Events that are not connected to each other in any way, or leaving us with
the next event does not rely from the previous event.
Examples of Independent events: 100 × 99 × 98!
= 100 × 99
Coin tosses 98!
​

Dice rolling So the value we get is

Examples of not Independent events:
Picking a ball from a bag (The next probability will 100!
increase due to a decrease in the number of balls in the = 100 × 99 = 9900
98!
bag)
Multiplication Law for IEs: 5.2. Addition and Multiplication principle
P (A and B) = P (A) × P (B)
In other words, the probability that events A and B occur is just 5.3. Addition Principle
by multiplying them.
If an event can occur in m ways and a second event, with
no common outcomes, can occur in n ways then the first
OR second event can occur in m + n ways.

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHEMATICS

The intersection of these two sets gives us the

multiplication principle
|A × B | = |A||B | [Where |x| denotes the number
of elements in that set]
A general tip is to use the multiplication principle when a
question uses the word “and”
To elaborate, it should be used in cases where you are
finding the number of different cases which happen at
the same time, or after the first event has occurred.

5.5. Permutations
The union of these two sets gives us the addition principle A Permutation can be defined as the number of
|A ⋃ B | = |A| + |B | [Where |x| denotes the arrangements of n distinct objects where order matters.
number of elements in that set] The number of arrangements of r objects from n total
A general tip is to use the addition principle when a distinct objects can be found using
question uses the word “or”
To elaborate, it should be used in cases where you are n
Pr =
n!
[Where r ≤ n]
finding the number of different cases which do not (n − r)!
​ ​

happen at the same time.

Furthermore
n
Pn = n!
5.4. Multiplication Principle
​

Example
If an event can occur in m ways and a second event can
In how many different ways can five boys be arranged in a row?
occur in n ways, after the first event has occurred, then Answer
the two events can occur in m × n ways. First, we begin by drawing our dashes

_____
We have 5 possible boys to choose from to place in the first
dash
After we place the first boy in the first dash, we have 4
possible boys to choose from to place in the second
dash.
The same process is repeated until all the boys are
arranged.

This gives us the answer as

5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 5 P5 = 5! = 120 ​

Example 2
In how many different ways can 3 apples be arranged in a row,
from a total of 6 apples.
Answer
First, we being by drawing our dashes

___

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHEMATICS
We can first arrange the boys in such a way that there is a gap
We have 6 possible apples to choose from to place in the between them, to seat the girls.
first dash
After we place the first apple in the first dash, we have 5 _ B1 _ B2 _ B3 _ B4 _
​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​

apples to choose from to place in the second dash.

After we place the second apple in the second dash, we Observe that we have made 5 dashes, while there are only 4
have 4 apples to choose from to place in the third and girls. This is because the arrangement can be such that a girl is
final dash. placed in the first dash. If a girl is not in the first dash, then the
dash is empty and the boy would be considered the first in line.
This gives us the answer as The same logic is used for the last dash.
We can now select the girls, that are going to be seated, using
6 × 5 × 4 = 6 P3 = 120
​

combinations. There are 5 dashes, but we only need to seat 4

girls. So out of 5 seats, we choose 4 seats to gain the total
5.6. Permutations with Repetitions number of selections possible.
5
As permutations only deals with the number of C4
arrangements of distinct where order matters, we
Now that we have selected 4 out of 5 seats, we can find the
overcount the number of arrangements if we try to use the
regular formula. total number of arrangements. We will end up with 4! ways of
arranging the 4 boys AND 4! ways of arranging the girls who
n! will be seated. We end up with
Number of arrangements =
p! × q! × ⋯
​

5
C4 × 4! × 4! = 2880 ways
​

Where:

n is the total number of objects String Method

n=p+q+⋯
p is the number of p repeated alike, non distinct, objects There are 3 boys and 4 girls. In how many ways can they be
q is the number of q repeated alike, non distinct, objects seated, such that all the boys are sitting in a row.
Answer
one dash
Example
Find the number of permutations of the 11 letter word B1 B2 B3 G1 G2 G3 G4
MISSISSIPPI.
​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​

Answer We can now say there will be 3! ways of arranging the boys
First we note down the number of times each letter occurs in inside the string amongst each other, and 5! ways of arranging
the word. the 5 total dashes. We have considered the string to be 1 dash,
1 = M , 4 = I, 4 = S, 2 = P so there are 5! ways of arranging the 4 girl students and the
Using the formula we get string.
In total there are:
11!
Number of arrangements = = 34, 650
4! × 4! × 2! 5! × 3! = 720 ways of arrangement
​

5.7. Problem Solving Strategies 5.8. Combinations

Gap Method A combination is a way of selecting, or choosing, r objects,
in no particular order, from n objects.
Let’s say there are 4 girls and 4 boys. How many ways can they
be seated, such that no girl is sitting next to another girl? The number of ways of selecting, or choosing, r objects from n
Answer objects is:
Let the girls be G1 , G2 , G3 , G4 and let the boys be
​ ​ ​ ​

B1 , B2 , B3 , B4 . People are distinct, so we do not need to take n n!

​ ​ ​ ​

Cr =
in consideration any repetitions. (n − r)! × r!
​ ​

This can also be thought of as

n Total number we select from!

Cr =
Number selected! × Number not selected!
​ ​

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHEMATICS
Example 1
Answer In this example, P (X = 1) would represent the probability
when the random variable X takes a value of 1. Looking at
The word "and" indicates the use of the multiplication 2
the probability distribution table, P (X = 1) = 40 .
principle.
​

Mean and Variance

We can choose 5 books from 8 books in 8 C5 or 56 ways. ​

We can choose 3 magazines from 6 magazines in 6 C3 or 20 ​

The mean of a random variable is also called its

ways. expectation, or expected value.
As we are trying to find the total number of selections, we E(X) represents the expected value of the random
multiply both results. This is the multiplication principle variable X .
Total number of ways of selection = 56 × 20 = 1120.
To find E(X):

Multiply the values that the random variable X can take

Example 2 with the corresponding probability, sum up all the results to
Answer
get the expectation.
Case 1 − w w w m m = 6 C3 × 5 C2 = 200
μ = E (x) = ∑ xi pi [Given in MF19]
​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​

​ ​

6 5
Case 2 − w w w w m = C4 × C1 = 75
​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​

Case 3 − w w w w w = 6 C5 × 5 C0 = 6
The variance of a random variable X is denoted by Var(X).
​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​

As we cannot have all of these cases happening at the same

time, due to a constraint on the number of people, we will have To find Var(X):
a choice between case 1 OR case 2 OR case 3. This is an
Find the sum of the product of the squared values of the
application of the addition principle, thus we add all our cases
to find the total number of selections. values the random variable X can take with the
corresponding probability. Subtract this value with the
200 + 75 + 6 = 281 ways mean squared.

σ 2 = ∑ x2i pi − (E(X))2 [Given in MF19]

6. Discrete Random Variables
​ ​

6.2. Examples
6.1. Probability Distribution Tables
Example 1
The probability distribution of a discrete random variable
lists the values that a random variable can take and shows A fair 6-sided dice has the numbers 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3 on its 6 sides.
the corresponding probabilities. The die is rolled twice. The random variable X denotes the
sum of of the two numbers obtained. Draw the probability
The sum of all the probabilities in a probability distribution distribution table for X , and find the mean and variance of X .
table always adds upto 1.
This is useful when finding the values of unknown Answer
probabilities in the table.

Let X represent a discrete random variable. The random variable X is the sum of two numbers obtained
after rolling the die. Using this, we know that the values X can
take are:

1 + 1 = 2, 1 + 2 = 3, 1 + 3 = 4, 2 + 3 = 5, 3 + 3 = 6
Note that other combinations exist to obtain the same
values listed above.

Now we can find the probability of the random variable X

taking up each value using a probability space diagram. Each
row and column, apart from the first one, represents the sum
of the two faces obtained.

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHEMATICS
1 2 2 3 3 3 So the probability distribution table is:
1 2 3 3 4 4 4
2 3 4 4 5 5 5
2 3 4 4 5 5 5
3 4 5 5 6 6 6
3 4 5 5 6 6 6
3 4 5 5 6 6 6

Using To find the value of k , we make use of the fact that the sum of
Favourable outcomes probabilities in a probability distribution table must add upto 1.
Probability =
Total outcomes
​

k + k + 4k + 9k = 1 ⟹ 15k = 1
We can draw the probability distribution table for X as:
Solving for k :
1
k=
15
​

7. Binomial Distribution
We also note that all the probabilities in the table add upto A binomial distribution is a discrete distribution that is
1. modelled using two parameters
The number of finite trials n
The constant probability of success p
To find the mean and variance, we use the probability The conditions for a model to follow a Binomial distribution:
distribution table. Finite number of trials, denoted by n
2 × 1 3 × 4 4 × 10 5 × 12 6 × 9 14 Only 2 possible outcomes, success and failure
E(X) = + + + + = Probability of success, p, is constant in each trial
36 36 36 36 36 3
​ ​ ​ ​ ​

Outcomes of each trial are independent of each other

To find the variance, we first find ∑ x2i pi . ​ ​

Finding probability using the distribution

(2)2 × 1 (3)2 × 4 (4)2 × 10 (5)2 × 12
∑ x2i pi = + + + +
36 36 36 36 We say a continuous random variable, X , follows a
​ ​ ​ ​ ​

We subtract this value from the mean squared to find the binomial distribution B(n, p). This is written as
variance
X ∼ B(n, p)
2
206 14 10
Var(X) = −( ) = The probability of the random variable X having x success in n
9 3 9
​ ​ ​

trials can be found using:

P (X = x) = ( ) × px × (1 − p)n−x
n
Example 2 x
​ [Given in MF19]

The random variable X takes the values -1, 1, 2, 3 only. The Here:
probability that X takes the value x is
x is a positive integer.
P (X = x) = kx2 [Where k is a constant] x = 0, 1, 2, ⋯, n
(1 − p) denotes the probability of a failure
Draw the probability distribution table for X , in terms of k , and
It is also denoted by q
find the value of k .
Mean and Variance
Answer
To calculate the expected value, or the mean, of a random
We can draw the probability distribution table by inputting the variable following a binomial distribution, we can use the
values which X can take. formula
P (X = −1) = k(−1)2 = k, P (X = 1) = k(1)2 = k E(X) = μ = np
2 2
P (X = 2) = k(2) = 4k, P (X = 3) = k(3) = 9k

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To calculate the variance of a random variable following a 3 0 11 5

binomial distribution, we can use the formula P (X ≥ 1) = 1 − 5C0 × ( ) × ( )
14 14
​ ​ ​

Var(X) = σ 2 = np(1 − p) P (X ≥ 1) = 0.701

7.1. Examples 7.2. Logarithmic inequalities

{S11-P63} Question 6: Logarithms are a type of function that help us solve
The probability that Sue completes a Sudoku puzzle correctly is exponential equations
0.75. Sue attempts 14 Sudoku puzzles every month. XX denotes
the number that she completes successfully. Find the value of Given an equation
X that has the highest probability. You may assume this value
ax = b
is one of the two values closest to the mean of X .
Solution: We can solve for x by using the logarithmic function
Calculate the mean of X
loga (b) = x
​

E (X ) = 14 × 0.75 = 10.5
Most calculators have an inbuilt function which can solve
Successful puzzles completed have to be a whole number logarithmic equations for you.
so they can either be 10 or 11. If a logarithm is taken with a base, a, less than 1 then the
P (10) = 14C10 × 0.7510 × 0.254 = 0.220 inequality is flipped.
To solve inequalities in binomial distribution questions, its
​

P (11) = 14C11 × 0.7511 × 0.253 = 0.240

​
important to know that (n0 ) = (nn) = 1.
​ ​

Probability with 11 is higher, therefore, X = 11 Example

A factory makes water pistols, 8% of which do not work
{W11-P62} Question 6: properly.
In Luttley College, 60% of students are boys. Students can In a random sample of n water pistols, the probability that at
choose exactly one of Games, Drama or Music on Friday
least one does not work properly is greater than 0.9. Find the
afternoons. 75% of the boys choose Games, 10% choose
smallest value of n.
Drama, and remainder choose Music. Of the girls, 30% choose
Answer
Games, 55% choose Drama and the remainder choose Music. 5 We can model the distribution as such
drama students are chosen. Find the probability that at least 1
of them is a boy. X ∼ B (n, 0.08)
Solution:
First, we calculate the probability of selecting a boy who is a From the question
drama student, a conditional probability:
P (X ≥ 1) > 0.9
P (Boy∣Drama)
P (S ) = We can re-write this as
P (Drama)
​

P (Boy) × P (Drama) 1 − P (X = 0) > 0.9 ⟹ P (X = 0) < 0.1

P (S ) =
(P (Boy) × P (Drama)) + (P (Girl) × P (Drama Using the distribution X ∼ B(n, 0.08)
0.6 × 0.1 3
P (S ) = =
( ) × (0.08)0 × (0.92)n < 0.1
n
(0.6 × 0.1) + (0.4 × 0.55) 14
​ ​

0
​

We can calculate the probability there is at least 1 boy present

from 5 drama students using a binomial distribution with 5 (0.92)n < 0.1
3
trials and P of success = 14 ​

As 0.92 < 1, the inequality is flipped when we apply the

Find the probability of 0 and subtract the answer from 1: logarithmic function
P (X ≥ 1) = 1 − P (X = 0) n > log0.92 (0.1) ​

n > 27.6

So the smallest value of n is 28.

8. Geometric Distribution

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHEMATICS
d) Find the probability of x > 8.
A geometric distribution is a discrete probability Solution:
distribution that is modelled using a single parameter, p, Part (a) To get a score of 4, there are three ways to do it:‎
which represents the probability of success. 3+1
1+3‎
Finding the probability using the distribution 2+2
So now we calculate each probability and then add them up:‎
We say a continuous random variable, X , follows a
geometric distribution Geo(p). This is written as 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
( )( ) + ( )( ) + ( )( ) =
6 6 6 6 6 6 12
​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​

X ∼ Geo(p)
Part (b)
The probability of getting a success on the xth trial is found This is a geometric distribution; its mean must be μ = 1
p ​

using Because p = 121

​

x−1
P (X = x) = p × (1 − p) [Given in MF19] ∴ μ = 12
Here Part (c)
x is a positive integer First obtained in the 6th throw means P (X = x), using the
x≥1 formula for geometric mean:
(1 − p) denotes the probability of a failure 6−1
1 1
Also represented by q P ( X = 6 ) = ( ) (1 − )
12 12
​ ​

Useful results P (X = x) ≈ 0.0539

Read as "The probability of the first success after the xth trial" Part (d) To find P (x > 8):
This can also be interpreted as the "probability of failure on
1 8
the first x trials" (1 − ) = 0.498
12
​

Read as "The probability of the first success on one of the first x 9. The Normal Distribution
trials"

This can also be interpreted as "1 - probability of failure on

9.1. Introduction
x trials"
A normal distribution is used to model a continuous
random variable, thus it is a continuous distribution and
Measures of central tendency not a discrete distribution. It has two parameters, the mean
Mean of a Geometric Distribution: (μ) and the variance (σ 2 ).

1 A continuous random variable that follows a normal

E(x) = μ = ​

distribution, N (μ, σ 2 ) can be written as follow

p
The mode of all geometric distributions is 1 X ∼ N (μ, σ 2 )

8.1. Examples
{S20-P51}‎Question 1:‎
The score when two fair six-sided dice are thrown is the ‎sum of
the two numbers on the upper faces.
1
a) Show that the probability that the score of 4 is 12 ​

The two dice are thrown repeatedly until a score of 4 is

obtained. The number of throws taken is denoted by the
random variable X .‎
b) Find the mean of X .
c) Find the probability that a score of 4 is first ‎obtained on the
6th throw.‎

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHEMATICS

We can use the standard normal table to find the value of a,

and match it with the corresponding probability.
The area under the graph represents probability
The mean (μ) acts as a line of symmetry
50% of the probability lies on the right side and 50% of
the probability lies on the left side.

The standard deviation represents how spread out a value

is from the mean.

9.2. Standardising a Normal Distribution

To convert any value in the normal distribution X ∼
N (μ, σ 2 ) to the standard normal distribution N (0, 1), we
use the standardization formula
This is done as the z values are already given a The left side of the table gives us a decimal value, and the
probability value for the standard normal distribution. right side of the table gives us the value we need to add to
the decimal value.
The x value in the normal distribution is the z value in the The reverse of this process can be used to find the z
standard normal distribution. value from a given area.
x−μ Let a be equal to 1.645 in this example. Using the table above,
z=
given in MF19, we can find the corresponding probability for
​

σ
Note that you divide by the standard deviation and not ϕ(1.645) as such:
the variance.
It is also not required to standardise a normal distribution if
the continuous random variable is already following a
standard normal distribution X ∼ N (0, 1).

9.3. Finding Probabilities

The standard normal distribution can be used to find the
probability of an event occurring.
The notation for the area to the left of z is ϕ(z).

Consider a standard normal distribution, X ∼ N (0, 1), where

you want to find P (z ≤ a).

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHEMATICS

Some useful results are listed below

Probability Area
P (a ≤ z ≤ b) ϕ(b) − ϕ(a)
P (−a ≤ z ≤ −b) ϕ(a) − ϕ(b)
P (−a ≤ z ≤ b) ϕ(b) + ϕ(a) − 1
P (−a ≤ z ≤ a) 2 (ϕ(a)) − 1

Example
Using the table: For a random variable X with normal distribution
X ∼ N (20, 42 )
ϕ(1.645) = 0.9495 + 0.0005 = 0.95
1. Find the probability of P (X ≤ 25)
This also represents 95% of the area under the graph. 2. Find the probability of P (X ≥ 25)
The mean value can be found by probability × sample 3. Find the probability of P (X ≤ 12)
space. 4. Find the probability of P (10 ≤ X ≤ 30)
Answer
Symmetry of the Distribution
1. Find the probability of P (X ≤ 25)
The mean, μ, acts as a line of symmetry for the normal
distribution. First we standardize the probability
A z value less than the mean will have a negative value. Z = 25−20
4 ​= 1.25
Search for this value in normal tables
Given a probability P (z ≥ a) or P (z ≤ −a) Φ (1.25) = 0.8944

2. Find the probability of P (X ≥ 25)

Change from greater than to less than using:

P (Z ≥ a) = 1 − P (Z ≤ a)
P (X ≥ 25) = 1 − P (X ≤ 25)
Using the probability from above
P (X ≥ 25) = 1 − 0.8944 = 0.1057
We can find the value by: 3. Find the probability of P (X ≤ 12)
1 − P (z ≤ a) Standardize the probability
Some other useful results are listed below Z = 12−20
4 ​= −2
Probability Area Change from negative value to positive by:
P (z < a) ϕ(a) P (Z ≤ −a) = 1 − P (Z ≤ a)
P (z > a) = 1 − P (z < a) 1 − ϕ(a)
P (Z ≤ −2) = 1 − P (Z ≤ 2)
P (z > −a) = P (z < a) ϕ(a)
P (z < −a) = 1 − P (z < a) 1 − ϕ(a)
Search for 2 in the normal tables
P (Z ≤ −2) = 1 − 0.9773 = 0.0228
It is also important to know that P (z = a) = 0 due to the
4. Find the probability of P (10 ≤ X ≤ 30)
continuous random variable being continuous.
Split inequality into two using:
Area in between two values P ( a ≤ Z ≤ b) = P ( Z ≤ b) − P ( Z ≤ a)
P (10 ≤ X ≤ 30) = P (X ≤ 30) − P (X ≤ 10)
The area in between two values can be found by
Standardize the values
subtracting the two areas.

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHEMATICS
13.05−9.9
= P (Z ≤ 2.5) − P (Z ≤ −2.5) 3.15 =1 ​

Convert the negative values to positive values We re-write the inequality as such
= P (Z ≤ 2.5) − (1 − P (Z ≤ 2.5)) P ( Z > 1) = 1 − P ( Z < 1)
Search for 2.5 in the normal table Find probability of 1 and find P (Z > 1)
= 0.9938 − (1 − 0.9938) = 0.9876 P (Z > 1) = 1 − 0.841 = 0.1587
Multiply the probability by 2 to take into account the other side.
9.4. Finding the mean and variance 0.1587 × 2 = 0.3174
Multiply the probability with the sample size
Example 0.3174 × 1000 = 317 birds
The lengths of body feathers of a particular species of bird are
modelled by a normal distribution. A researcher measures the 9.5. Normal approximation
lengths of a random sample of 600 feathers and finds that 63
are less than 6 cm long and 155 are more than 12 cm long. The binomial distribution can be used to approximate a
i. Find estimates of the mean and standard deviation of the normal distribution.
lengths of body feathers of birds of this species.
ii. In a random sample of 1000 body feathers from birds of this Let X follow a binomial distribution such that
species, how many would the researcher expect to find with Using this, we can approximate a normal distribution:
lengths more than 1 standard deviation from the mean? Conditions to approximate a normal distribution:
Answer
Part (i): np > 5
Interpreting the question and finding probabilities: nq > 5
P (X < 6) = 0.105 P (X > 12) = 0.258
For X < 6, the probability cannot be found on the tables Continuity Correction
which means it is behind the mean and therefore we must find
A continuity correction must be applied as a binomial
1− and assume probability is negative distribution is a discrete distribution, while a normal
−P (X < 6) = 0.895 distribution is a continuous distribution.
Using the standardization formula and working back from the This can be thought of as making a histogram
table as we are given probability continuous by manipulating an interval's lower and
6−μ
σ = −1.253
​

upper bounds. Due to this, we must add or subtract

Convert the greater than sign to less than 0.5 according to the inequality in the probability.
P (X > 12) = 1 − P (X < 12)
P (X < 12) = 1 − 0.258 = 0.742 x ± 0.5 − μ
z= ​

Work back from table and use standardization formula σ

(12−μ)
σ ​ = 0.650 Consider a constant a
Solve the simultaneous equations Probability Continuity correction Notes
P (x > a) P (x > a + 0.5) Does not include a
σ = 3.15 and μ = 9.9
P (x ≥ a) P (x > a − 0.5) Includes a
Part (ii): P (x < a) P (x < a − 0.5) Does not include a
Greater than 1 standard deviance from μ means both sides of P (x ≤ a) P (x < a + 0.5) Includes a
the graph however area symmetrical therefore find the greater P (a < x < b) P (a + 0.5 < x < b − 0.5) Does not include a or b
area & double it
Using values calculated from (i):
Example
P (X > (9.9 + 3.15) = P (X > 13.05) On a certain road 20% of the vehicles are trucks, 16% are buses
Standardise this value and remainder are cars. A random sample of 125 vehicles is
taken. Using a suitable approximation, find the probability that
more than 73 are cars.
Answer
First we find the probability of the cars

1 − (0.16 + 0.2) = 0.64

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So the binomial distribution is

X ∼ B(125, 0.64)
First we check if a normal approximation can be used*
125 × 0.64 = 80 and 125 × (1 − 0.64) = 45
Both conditions are satisfied so we can approximate a normal
distribution.

X ∼ B (125, 0.64) → X ∼ N (80, 28.8)

Apply the continuity correction

P (X > 73) = P (X ≥ 73.5)

Now we can find the probability

P (X ≥ 73.5) = 1 − P (X ≤ 73.5)
Next we standardise this value
73.5 − 80
Z= = −1.211
28.8
​

As it is a negative value, we must subtract by one again

1 − (1 − P (Z < −1.211) = P (Z < 1.211) = ϕ(1.211)

Using the normal table

P = 0.8871

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CAIE AS LEVEL
MATHEMATICS (9709)
STATISTICS 1

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