INTRODUCTION TO POPULATION STUDIES

Demography
Definition
Demography can be defined as the study of human populations including their composition,
distributions, densities, growth and other characteristics as well as the causes and
consequences of changes in these factors. Demography, as understood today, is the scientific
study of human population and its dynamics. It is derived from two
Greek Words:
• Demos means population
• Graphics means to draw
Demography focuses its attention on three readily available human phenomena:
• Changes in population size (growth or decline)
• The composition of the population and
• The distribution of population in space.
Demography deals with major “demographic processes” namely fertility, mortality and
migration. These processes are continually at work within a population determining its size,
composition and distribution.
Sources of Demographic Data
Demographic data are important in providing factual basis for decisions on matters of public
policy and action concerning social and economic affairs. These data can be processed to
indicate present and future requirements of the population in terms of the types and extent of
social needs of the society such as health, education and employment.
The major sources of demographic data include:
2.1. Census
2.2. Registration of vital events (Records)
2.3. Sample surveys
2.4. Ad-hoc Demographic studies

Census
Census is defined as an enumeration or complete population count at a point in time within a
specified geographical area. A census provides more reliable and accurate data if properly
enumerated.
The conducting of censuses has a long history, but modern censuses were first held in the 17 th
century. By the end of eighteenth and beginning of the nineteenth century many countries had
held their first censuses. Some countries including Ethiopia have only recently held their first
censuses.
Techniques of Census Taking
There are two techniques of conducting census, dejure and defacto.
A. DEJURE
This technique is the counting of people according to the permanent place of location or
residence.
Advantages
• It gives permanent picture of a community.
• It provides more realistic and useful statistics.
Disadvantages
• Some persons may be omitted from the count. A household member who is temporarily away
from home may be missed from being counted unless the enumerator makes sure that nobody
is missing.
• Some may be counted twice.
• Information collected regarding persons away from home is often incomplete or incorrect.

B. DEFACTO
This technique of conducting census refers to counting persons where they are present at the
time of the census period.
Advantages
• There is less chance for the omission of persons from the count.
Disadvantages
• Difficult to obtain information regarding persons in transit. These are persons who are, for
example travelling and have left their area of permanent residence but haven’t reached the area
of destination during the census day.
• It provides incorrect picture of the population in a community.
• Vital statistics are usually distorted (in areas with high migration).
Use of Census
A census is useful for:
• Planning
• Calculating health indicators and vital indices.
Steps in Conducting Census
The major steps to be followed in a census include.
• Planning and preparation
• Collecting information
• Compilation and analysis
• Evaluation
Qualities of a Census
A census must have the following qualities
• It should include every individual in the area (no omission or duplication).
• Information should relate to a well – defined point in time.
• It should be taken at regular intervals (preferably every 10 years).
• It should refer to people inhabiting a well-defined territory.
• Information be obtained from personal contact.
Registration of Vital Events (Statistics)
It is a regular and continuous registration of vital events. Civil registration system, which
records births, deaths, marriages etc. (vital statistics), enables rates of population growth to be
calculated; but are much less adequate than national censuses. In developing countries where
illiteracy rates are high and communications are poor, the problems of recording births and
deaths are immense not only in rural populations but also in urban areas. However, efforts are
being made to improve the collection of these data in many countries.
Sample Surveys
A sample survey is another source of demographic data carried out in a scientifically selected
area which covers only a section or portion (sample) of the population under consideration. As
countries have began increasingly to formulate population policies as part of their development
programs, especially since 1970; so they have required more data about their populations.
Demographic surveys have become increasingly important as a comparatively rapid method of
obtaining such information. It was recognized that the quality of demographic data available for
the developing world was poor and the need for better data both for scientific study and for
policy application is also recognized.
DEMOGRAPHIC MEASURMENT TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES
The major demographic processes of fertility, mortality and migration constitute the basic
components to determine the size, composition and distribution of a population which require
basic tools and techniques of measurement.
Tools of Measurement
The tools of measurement include:
• Ratios
• Proportions and
• Rates
Techniques of Demographic Measurement
A change in the overall size of a population is the result of three cumulative changes in the
number of births, deaths and migrants. Since births and deaths occur continuously, and since
people frequently change their place of residence, they are the bases of demographic analysis.
Depending on their direction and magnitude these processes are important for social and
economic planning, in assessing the present needs and the needs of the future expansion of
socio-economic infrastructure. The techniques for measuring fertility, mortality and migration
are described further.
Measure of Fertility
Fertility is the reproductive performance of an individual, a couple, a group or a population. It is
meant the actual bearing of children. Some demographers prefer to use natality in place of
fertility.
Fertility leads to increase of population. It differs from fecundity – which refers to the
physiological capability of a woman to reproduce. A woman’s reproductive period is roughly 15
– 49 years of age.
The most important measures of fertility include:
Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
The crude birth rate indicates the number of live births (children born alive) per 1000 mid –
year population in a given year.
CBR = Number of live births in a year X 1000
Total mid – year population

In the world CBR varies widely from population to population. It is high for population of the
developing countries and low for those of the developed ones.

Fertility may be grossly determined as high, medium or low based on CBR values.
High fertility Rate = > 30/1000
Medium fertility rate = 20-30/1000
Low fertility rate = < 20/1000

General Fertility Rate (GFR)

The General Fertility Rate is the number of live births per 1000 females aged 15-49 years
(fertile age group) in a given year. The GFR in more sensitive measure of fertility than the CBR,
since it refers to the age and sex group capable of giving birth (females 15-49 years of age). It
eliminates distortions that might arise due to different age and sex distributions among the total
population. The major limitation of GFR is that not all women in the denominator are exposed to
the risk of child birth.

GFR = Number of live births in a year X 1000

Number of females 15-49 years of age

The GFR is approximately four times the CBR.

Age specific fertility rates (ASFR)

The Age specific fertility rate is defined as the number of children born alive to females in a
specific age group per 1000 females in that specific age group, example (15-19),
(20-24),….. (45-49) years of age.

ASFR = No. of live births to females in a specific age group in a year X 1000
Mid-year population of females of the same age group

For example, ASFR for women 20 – 24 years of age is expressed as:

ASFR (20-24) = Live births to women 20- 24 years of age X 1000

Total No. of females 20 – 24 years of age

For instance if there were 4,000,000 women (females) in the age group 20-24 years and if the
there were 200,000 live births to women in the same age group, the Age specific fertility rate for
these women (20-24 years of age) will be:

ASFR (20-24) years of age = 200,000 X 1000 = 50

4,000,000
That is, there are 50 live births for every 1000 women 20-24 years of age.
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
The total Fertility Rate is the average number of children that would be born to a woman
throughout her life time or her child bearing age (15-49 years), if she were to pass through all
her child bearing years at the same rates as the women now in each age group. The TFR sums up
in a single number the Age Specific Fertility Rates of all women at a given point in time. If 5 –
year age groups are used, the sum of the rates is multiplied by 5. This measure gives the
approximate magnitude of “completed family size”.
The TFR is one of most useful indicators of fertility, because it gives the best picture of how
many children women are having currently.

TFR = Sum of all Age specific fertility rates multiplied by age interval (Usually 5).
GROWTH OF POPULATIONS
If we assume that the number of individuals entering a population (immigration), equals the
number of leaving (emigration), population growth is the result of the increase of births over
deaths. This relationship is summarized by a formula known as the balancing equation. It is
expressed as:

P2 = P1 + ( B – D) + ( I + E)
Where:-
P2 = Size of population for the year under consideration

P1 = Size of population in the preceding year

B = Number of births between the two dates
D = Number of deaths between the two date.
I = Number of immigrants in the time under consideration (between P2 and P1)
E = Number of emigrants in the time under consideration (between P2 and P1)

The differences between births and deaths in a population produces the Natural Increase (or
Decrease) of a population.
The rate of Natural Population increase is the rate at which a population is increasing (or
decreasing) in a given year due to excess (or deficit) of births over deaths expressed as a
percentage of the base population.

Net Migration: is the difference between the numbers of persons entering a geographic area
(Immigrants) and those leaving the area (emigrants).
Total Population Growth Rate
It is the rate at which a population is increasing (or decreasing) in a given year due to natural
increase and net migration expressed as a percentage of the base population.

1. Reasons For Population Growth

Thomas Malthus, (1766-1834), English clergyman and economist in his “essay, “The Principles
of Population”, hypothesised that there is relationship between economic development and
population growth. He claimed that population was increasing faster than food production, and
he feared eventual global starvation. Malthus was criticized that he could not foresee how
modern technology would increase food production, and that he considered people only as
consumers, but they are also producers, since “with every mouth God sends a pair of
hands”. However, his observations how populations increase and his arguments are important
when there are fixed resources such as land, energy resources, etc.
He suggested that populations tend to grow in geometric progression (Exponential), doubling in
size every 'n' years depending on the population growth rate; while food supplies
can at best grow in arithmetic progression.
Geometric Progression:- A series of ordered numbers is said to be in geometric progression if
the proportion of any two adjacent numbers is the same.
e.g. 3, 9, 27, 81 ……………..; or 1, 2, 4, 8, ……….. etc.
Population size over a period of years is said to follow a geometrical pattern of growth, if the
change within a particular year is proportional to the population size at the beginning of
that year.
Arithmetic progression:- a series of figures is said to be in arithmetic progression, when the
difference between any two adjacent figures is the same. e.g. 3, 5, 7, 9, 11,…………………; or 1. 2, 3,
4, …….. etc. Population size over a period of years is said to be in arithmetic progression, if the
size changes by a constant amount each year.
The doubling time of a population is the number of years it would take for a population to
double in size if the present rate of growth remained unchanged. Its purpose has been to
emphasize how quickly populations can grow, doubling their numbers geometrically. Doubling
time cannot be used to project future population size because it assumes a constant growth rate
over decades, where as growth rates do change over time. To calculate doubling time, divide the
number 70 (actually 69.3 for better accuracy) by the population growth rate expressed in
percent. For example a country with a population growth rate of one percent would double its
population in about 70 years; at 2% in 35 years; at 3% in 23 years.

Population Growth Forms

Populations have characteristic patterns of increase which are called Population Growth
Forms.
There are two patterns of population growth forms.
A. Exponential Growth Form (J - Shaped Growth Curve)
In this growth form density increases rapidly in exponential or compound interest fashion,
when there is no environmental restrictions; and then stops abruptly as environmental
resistance or other limits of resources become effective more or less suddenly. This resistance is
the carrying capacity, the upper level beyond which no major increase can occur (K).

B. Sigmoid Growth Form (S - Shaped)

In this growth form the population increases slowly at first (establishment or positive
acceleration), then increases more rapidly (perhaps approaching a logarithmic phase), but soon
it slows down gradually as the environmental resistance increases percentage wise (the
negative acceleration phase), until a more or less equilibrium level is reached and maintained
that is the carrying capacity, showing more or less an S – shaped curve.
Population Dynamics
Definition
Population dynamics is the study of the changes in population size and structure over time:
Major Factors in Population Dynamics
Three major factors or variables determine the population of a defined area and its growth over
time. There are:
♦ Births (Fertility)
♦ Deaths (Mortality)
♦ Migration
a) immigration (in migration)
b) emigration (out migration)
The balance among these three factors determines whether a population increases, remains
stationary, or decreases in number. The relation between births and deaths is referred to
as Natural Population Increase (Natural Population Growth). When the net effect of migration is
added to natural increase, this is referred to as Total Increase (Total Growth).
Population structure (composition)
Aside from the total size, the most important demographic characteristic of a population is its
population structure. Population structure refers to the composition of the population in terms
of Age, sex, occupation, religion, educational status, geographical distribution, socio– economic
status etc. The structure of a population is influenced or affected by births, deaths and migration
and their predisposing factors.
The age – sex structure determines potential for future growth of specific age groups, as well as
the total population. For these reasons the age structure has significant government policy
implications. A population of young people needs a sufficient number of schools and later,
enough jobs to accommodate them. Countries with a large proportion of older people must
develop retirement systems and medical facilities to serve them. Therefore, as a population ages
needs change from child care schools and jobs tol to jobs, housing, and medical care.

Population pyramid
The age–sex structure of a country can be studied through population pyramids. Population
pyramids show pictorially (graphically) the effects of the three factors that influence
population. The overall shape of the pyramid indicates the potential for future growth.
Population pyramids present the population of an area or country in terms of its composition by
age and sex at a point in time. The series of horizontal bars in a pyramid represent the
percentage contribution of each age and sex groups (often of five years age group interval) in
the population. A glance at a population pyramid can tell a great deal about that population. One
can easily see whether a population is young or old. By convention males are shown on the left
and females on the right of the pyramid. Young persons at the bottom and the elderly at the top.
The ratio or percentage of the various age groups in a population determines the current
reproductive status of the population and indicate what may be expected in the future. The
shape of the pyramid reflects the major influences on births and deaths, plus any change due to
migration over three or four generations proceeding the date of the pyramid.
The following four representations of population age – sex structure provide an overall example
of what a pyramid for different levels of population growth would look like – rapid growth, slow
growth, zero growth and negative growth

a. A pyramid with a Broad Base

This indicates a high percentage of young population. Rapid population growth. The low
survivorship and high natality of human population in many developing countries result in a
pyramidal stable age - structure, in which most of the population is young.
b. A Bell shaped Polygon:-
This indicates a moderate proportion of young to old Population. Slow population growth.
c. A Rectangular Polygon:-
In a more developed countries high survivorship and low natality produce populations with an
almost rectangular, stable age structure in which all age groups are equally abundant. Zero
population growth.
d. An Urn - shaped Figure
This type of shape indicates a low percentage of young Population, which is characteristic of a
declining Population. Negative population growth.

6. The Ecological Ages

The ecological age include:
♦ Pre - reproductive - Population less than 15 year old
♦ Reproductive - Reproductive age groups (15 – 49 years)
♦ Post reproductive - Elderly people (> 49 years - females) A stationary population will have a
more even distribution of all age classes.
A rapidly expanding population will usually contain large proportion of young individuals. A
declining population will contain a large proportion of old individuals and a small proportion of
young individuals.
Type of Populations
Population s may be categorized into four major groups depending on their state of expansion:
a. TYPE I - EXPANSIVE
This is characteristic of traditional poor countries indicated by:-
i. High Fertility
ii. High Morality
iii. High proportion of children (young age)
iv. Moderate Growth Rate.
b. TYPE II - EXPANSIVE
Includes modern, less developed countries characterised by:-
i. High Fertility
ii. Declining Mortality
iii. High Growth Rate
iv. Very young population
c. TYPE III - STATIONARY
This includes contemporary developed countries characterised by:-
i. Declining Fertility
ii. Declining Mortality
iii. Moderate Growth Rate
iv. Aging population
d. TYPE IV - CONSTRICTIVE
These are future developed countries characterised by:-
i. Low fertility
ii. Low Mortality
iii. Ceasing Growth Rate
iv. Very old Population