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Project Risk Management Overview

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100% found this document useful (1 vote)
36 views86 pages

Project Risk Management Overview

pmp

Uploaded by

Aris Tesoro
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Project Risk Management

PMI, PMP, PMBOK and the PMI Registered Education Provider logo are registered marks of the Project Management Institute, Inc.
May 11, 2014 1
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
What is a Risk ?

* An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or


negative effect on one or more project objectives.

Uncertainty Cause and Effect Project Objectives


A state of having limited A risk is triggered by one or
knowledge where it is more causes and it may have 1 Scope
impossible to exactly one or more impacts.
describe the existing state, a 2 Schedule
future outcome, or more The effect can be positive or
than one possible outcome. negative. 3 Cost

4 Quality

May 11, 2014 2


* These definitions are taken from the Glossary of the Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK ® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013.

© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
What is Project Risk Management ?

* Project Risk Management includes the processes of conducting risk management


planning, identification, analysis, response planning, and controlling risk on a project.

Increase positive events Decrease negative events


probability and Impact probability and Impact

Objective of Project Risk Management


May 11, 2014 3
* These definitions are taken from the Glossary of the Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK ® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013.

© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Risk, Uncertainty & Cost of changes

Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, Figure 2-9, Page 40.
May 11, 2014 4
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
• Identified, analyzed and
Known responses created. (proactive)
risks • Assign contingency reserve if it
can’t be managed proactively.

Unknown • Can’t be managed proactively.


risks • Requires Management reserve.

Issue – an occurred negative risk

May 11, 2014 5


© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Individual Overall
project risks project risk


May 11, 2014 6
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Risk attitude among organization and stakeholders

Risk appetite – the degree of Risk tolerance – the degree, Risk threshold – measures along
uncertainty an entity is willing amount or volume of risk that the level of uncertainty or the level
to take on in anticipation of a an organization or individual of impact at which a stakeholder
reward. will withstand. may have specific interest.

The organization is willing to accept The organization or stakeholder is The organization or stakeholder will
reasonable risk to the cost on this willing to accept risk of up to 8% NOT accept a risk that may increase the
project. increase in the project cost. project cost by more than 9%.

May 11, 2014 7


© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
To be successful, an organization should be
dedicated to address risk management
proactively and consistently throughout the
project.
KEY POINTS

Project risk
Positive and negative risks are
could exist
commonly known as
from initiation
opportunities and threats.
till closing.

Risk Aversion Risk Taker Risk Neutral

May 11, 2014 8


© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Risk Management
Plan Risk Processes
Management

Plan Risk
Identify Risks
Responses

Control
Risks

Perform Perform
Quantitative Qualitative
Risk Analysis Risk Analysis

May 11, 2014 9


© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Plan Risk Management

* The process of defining how to conduct risk


management activities for a project.
* These definitions are taken from the Glossary of the Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK ® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013.

May 11, 2014 10


Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, Figure 11-2, Page 313.

© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Plan Risk Management Data Flow Diagram

May 11, 2014 11


Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, Figure 11-3, Page 313.

© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Why do we need these inputs?
• The project management plan provides current
scope, schedule, and cost baseline that can show
risk-affected areas.
• The project charter can provide information on
high-level risks, project descriptions, and
requirements.
• The stakeholder register, contains full details of
stakeholders which could be helpful to assign risk
management roles.

May 11, 2014 12


© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Why do we need these inputs?
• The enterprise environmental factors examples
includes risk attitudes, thresholds, and tolerances
which was described earlier.
• The organizational process assets examples:
– Risk categories,
– Common definitions of concepts and terms,
– Risk management templates,
– Roles and responsibilities,
– Decision making authority level, and
– Lessons learned documents.
May 11, 2014 13
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Plan Risk Management: Tools and Techniques

• Analytical techniques
– Analytical techniques are used to understand and
define the overall risk management context of the
project.
• Stakeholder risk analysis means identifying the
stakeholders, types of risks, extent of risks, levels of
stakeholder commitment, and degree of influence.

May 11, 2014 14


© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Plan Risk Management: Tools and Techniques

• Expert Judgment
– To ensure a comprehensive establishment of the
risk management plan, judgment, and expertise
should be considered from groups or individuals
with specialized training or knowledge on the
subject area.

May 11, 2014 15


© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Plan Risk Management: Tools and Techniques
• Meetings
– Meetings should be a common way to develop risk
management plan with project team members.
Meetings can include stakeholders who have vested
interested in the project and subject matter experts.
– Several decision can be made this meeting including
but not limited to
1. Plans to conduct risk management activities
2. Assign budget and schedule for risk management
3. Assign responsibility in risk management
4. Develop templates for risk categories

May 11, 2014 16


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Plan Risk Management: Outputs
• Risk Management Plan
– This will layout the risk management activities
structure and plan.
• Methodology
• Roles and responsibilities
• Budgeting
• Timing
• Risk categories
• Definitions of risk probability and impact

May 11, 2014 17


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Definitions of risk probability and impact
Defined Conditions for Impact Scales of a Risk on Major Project Objectives

Relative or numerical scales are shown


Project
Objectives
Very low / 0.1 Low / 0.2 Moderate /0.3 High /0.5 Very High /0.8

Insignificant cost < 3% cost 3% - 5% cost 5%-10% cost > 10% cost
Cost increase increase increase increase increase

Insignificant time 10 to 20 days 20 to 30 days


Time increase
< 10 days delay
delay delay
> 30 days delay

Scope reduction Project end item


Scope decrease Minor areas of Major areas of
Scope barely noticeable scope affected scope affected
unacceptable to is effectively
sponsor useless
Only very
Quality Quality reduction Quality reduction Project end item
demanding
Quality degradation
applications
requires sponsor unacceptable to is effectively
barely noticeable approval sponsor useless
are affected

May 11, 2014 18


Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, Table 11.1, Page 318.

© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Plan Risk Management: Outputs
• Risk Management Plan
– Probability and impact matrix
– Revised stakeholders’ tolerances
– Reporting formats
– Tracking

May 11, 2014 19


© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Risk Threshold
Probability & Impact Matrix
Probability Threats Opportunities
0.9 0.09 0.18 0.27 0.45 0.72 0.72 0.45 0.27 0.18 0.09
0.8 0.08 0.16 0.24 0.40 0.64 0.64 0.4 0.24 0.16 0.08
0.7 0.07 0.14 0.21 0.35 0.56 0.56 0.35 0.21 0.14 0.07
0.6 0.06 0.12 0.18 0.30 0.48 0.48 0.30 0.18 0.12 0.06
0.5 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.25 0.40 0.40 0.25 0.15 0.10 0.05
0.4 0.04 0.08 0.12 0.20 0.32 0.32 0.20 0.12 0.08 0.04
0.3 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.15 0.24 0.24 0.15 0.09 0.06 0.03
0.2 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.10 0.16 0.16 0.10 0.06 0.04 0.02
0.1 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.08 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.01
Impact 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1
Red – High Risk, Yellow – Medium Risk, Green – Low Risk
May 11, 2014 20
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Identify Risks
* Identify Risks is the process of determining
which risks may affect the project and
documenting their characteristics.

This process will help you identify and anticipate


uncertain events.

May 11, 2014 21


* These definitions are taken from the Glossary of the Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK ® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013.

© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Identify Risk Process

Who can help you with identifying risks?


Project Manager, Project Team Members,
Risk Management Team (If assigned), Customers,
Subject Matter Experts from outside the Project
Team, End Users, other Project Managers,
Stakeholders, and Risk Management Experts.

May 11, 2014 22


Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, figure11-5, Page 319.

© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Key Points

Iterative Frequency of Participation


process iteration in each cycle

This process should involve New risks


the project team may evolve

Stakeholders outside the project team may


provide additional objective information.
May 11, 2014 23
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Identify Risks: Inputs
Risk, Cost,
Enterprise
Schedule, Quality Activity cost
environmental
and HR estimates
factors
Management Plan

Procurement Organizational Activity duration


documents process assets estimates

Project documents Scope baseline Stakeholder register

May 11, 2014 24


© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Tools & Techniques
1. Documentation reviews
2. Information gathering techniques
3. Checklist analysis
4. Assumptions analysis
5. Diagramming techniques
6. SWOT analysis
7. Expert judgment
May 11, 2014 25
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
1. Documentation reviews

Project documents such as project charter, issue


log, scope statement, etc., will help the project
Project
Documents
team to identify project risks and it will also
improve cross-team and stakeholder
communications.

May 11, 2014 26


© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
2. Information Gathering Techniques
• Brainstorming
• Delphi technique
• Interviewing
• Root cause analysis

May 11, 2014 27


© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Brainstorming

* A general data gathering and creativity


technique that can be used to identify
risks, ideas, or solutions to issues by using
a group of team members or subject
matter experts.

May 11, 2014 28


* These definitions are taken from the Glossary of the Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK ® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013.

© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
2. Delphi technique
1. An information gathering technique used
as a way to reach a consensus of experts
on a subject.
2. Experts on the subject participate in this
technique anonymously.
3. A facilitator uses a questionnaire to solicit
ideas about the important project points
related to the subject.
4. The responses are summarized and are
then re-circulated to the experts for
further comment.
5. Consensus may be reached in a few
rounds of this process.
6. The Delphi technique helps reduce bias in
the data and keeps any one person from
having undue influence on the outcome.

May 11, 2014 29


* These definitions are taken from the Glossary of the Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK ® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013.

© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
3. Interviewing

* A formal or informal approach to elicit


information from stakeholders by
talking to them directly.

May 11, 2014 30


© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Root Cause Analysis

An analytical technique used to


determine the basic underlying
reason that causes a risk. A root cause
may underlie more than one risk.

May 11, 2014 31


* These definitions are taken from the Glossary of the Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK ® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013.

© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
3. Checklist Analysis

Risk identification checklists are developed


based on historical information. The
checklist should be reviewed during project
closure to incorporate new lessons learned
and improve it for use on future projects.

May 11, 2014 32


© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
4. Assumptions Analysis

* A technique that explores the accuracy of


assumptions and identifies risks to the
project from inaccuracy, inconsistency, or
incompleteness of assumptions.

May 11, 2014 33


* These definitions are taken from the Glossary of the Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK ® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013.

© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
5. Diagramming Techniques
• Cause and effect diagrams
– * A decomposition technique that helps trace an
undesirable effect back to its root causes .

• System or process flow charts


– These show how various elements of a system
interrelate and the mechanism of causation.
• Influence diagrams
– * A graphical representation of situations showing
causal influences, time ordering of events, and other
relationships among variables and outcomes.

May 11, 2014 34


* These definitions are taken from the Glossary of the Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK ® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013.

© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
6. SWOT Analysis

Analysis of strengths,
weaknesses, opportunities,
and threats of an organization,
project, or option.

May 11, 2014 35


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7. Expert Judgment

Risks may be identified directly by experts


with relevant experience with similar projects
or business areas.

May 11, 2014 36


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Identify Risks: Outputs
• Risk Register
– A document in which the results of risk analysis
and risk response planning are recorded.
• List of identified risks.
• List of potential responses.

• Let’s take a look at risk register template!

May 11, 2014 37


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Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis

* The process of prioritizing risks for further analysis or action by


assessing and combining their probability of occurrence and impact.

Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, figure11-8, Page 328.
May 11, 2014 38
* These definitions are taken from the Glossary of the Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK ® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013.

© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Things to know

It enables project
Assesses the priority of Focus on high-priority
managers to reduce the
identified risks risks.
level of uncertainty

Performed regularly throughout This process can lead


into perform
the project life cycle quantitative risk analysis

It is usually a rapid and cost-effective means of


establishing priorities for plan risk responses
May 11, 2014 39
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Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis: Inputs

Risk
Management Scope Baseline Risk Register
Plan

Organizational
EEF
Process Assets

May 11, 2014 40


© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis: Tools and Techniques

1. Risk probability and impact assessment


2. Probability and impact matrix
3. Risk data quality assessment
4. Risk categorization
5. Risk urgency assessment
6. Expert judgment

May 11, 2014 41


© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
1. Risk probability and impact assessment

• Risk probability assessment investigates the


likelihood that each specific risk will occur.

• Risk impact assessment investigates the


potential effect on a project objective such as
schedule, cost, quality, or performance,
including both negative effects for threats
and positive effects for opportunities.

May 11, 2014 42


© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
2. Probability and Impact Matrix

Evaluation of each risk’s


importance and priority for
attention is typically
conducted using a look-up
table or a probability and
impact matrix.

May 11, 2014 43


Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, Figure 11.10, Page 331.

© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
May 11, 2014 44
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3. Risk Data Quality Assessment

* Technique to evaluate the degree


to which the data about risks is
useful for risk management.

May 11, 2014 45


* These definitions are taken from the Glossary of the Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK ® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013.

© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
4. Risk Categorization
* Organization by
sources of risk (e.g.,
using the RBS), the area
of the project affected
(e.g., using the WBS), or
other useful category
(e.g., project phase) to
determine the areas of
the project most
exposed to the effects
of uncertainty.

May 11, 2014 46


* These definitions are taken from the Glossary of the Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK ® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013.

© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
5. Risk Urgency Assessment
Risks requiring near-term responses may
be considered more urgent to address.
Indicators of priority may include
probability of detecting the risk, time to
affect a risk response, symptoms and
warning signs, and the risk rating.
In some qualitative analyses, the
assessment of risk urgency is combined
with the risk ranking that is determined
from the probability and impact matrix to
give a final risk severity rating.

May 11, 2014 47


* These definitions are taken from the Glossary of the Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK ® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013.

© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
6. Expert Judgment

Expert judgment is required to assess the


probability and impact of each risk.

May 11, 2014 48


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Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis: Outputs

• Project Documents Updates


– Project documents that may be updated include,
but are not limited to:
– Risk register updates
– Assumptions log updates

May 11, 2014 49


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Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis

* The process of numerically analyzing the effect of


identified risks on overall project objectives.

Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, figure11-11, Page 334.
May 11, 2014 50
* These definitions are taken from the Glossary of the Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK ® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013.

© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis: Inputs

Risk Cost Schedule Enterprise


Organizational
Management Management Management Environmental Risk Register
Process Assets
Plan Plan Plan Factors

May 11, 2014 51


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Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis: Tools and Techniques

1. Data gathering and representation


techniques
2. Quantitative risk analysis and modeling
techniques
3. Expert judgment

May 11, 2014 52


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1. Data gathering and representation techniques

• Interviewing. Interviewing techniques draw on


experience and historical data to quantify the
probability and impact of risks on project
objectives.
• The information needed depends upon the type
of probability distributions that will be used. For
instance, information would be gathered on the
optimistic (low), pessimistic (high), and most
likely scenarios for some commonly used
distributions.

May 11, 2014 53


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2. Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling Techniques

1. Sensitivity analysis
2. Expected monetary value analysis
3. Modeling and simulation

May 11, 2014 54


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Sensitivity analysis
• * A quantitative risk analysis
and modeling technique
used to help determine
which risks have the most
potential impact on the
project.
• It examines the extent to
which the uncertainty of
each project element affects
the objective being
examined when all other
uncertain elements are held
at their baseline values.
• The typical display of results
is in the form of a tornado
diagram.
May 11, 2014 55
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Probability Distribution

Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, figure11-11, Page 334.
May 11, 2014 56
* These definitions are taken from the Glossary of the Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK ® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013.

© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Expected monetary value analysis

May 11, 2014 57


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Expected monetary value analysis

May 11, 2014 58


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Expected monetary value analysis

May 11, 2014 59


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Expected monetary value analysis

May 11, 2014 60


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Modeling and simulation
A project simulation uses a model that translates the specified
detailed uncertainties of the project into their potential
impact on project objectives. Simulations are typically
performed using the Monte Carlo technique.

May 11, 2014 61


Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, figure11-17, Page 340.

© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
3. Expert Judgment

Expert judgment (ideally using


experts with relevant, recent
experience) is required to identify
potential cost and schedule
impacts, to evaluate probability,
and to define inputs such as
probability distributions into the
tools.

May 11, 2014 62


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Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis: Outputs

Project Documents Updates


• Probabilistic analysis of the project.
• Probability of achieving cost and time
objectives.
• Prioritized list of quantified risks.
• Trends in quantitative risk analysis results.

May 11, 2014 63


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Plan Risk Responses

* The process of developing options and actions to enhance


opportunities and to reduce threats to project objectives.
Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, figure11-18, Page 342.
May 11, 2014 64
* These definitions are taken from the Glossary of the Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK ® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013.

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Plan Risk Responses: Inputs

Risk management
Risk register
plan

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Key Points

Follows of
Optimum risk qualitative and or
Realistic
response quantitative
analysis

Agreed upon
Cost-effective in meeting the
by all parties
challenge
involved

Identification and assignment of one person (an


owner for risk response) to take responsibility for
each agreed-to and funded risk response

May 11, 2014 66


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Plan Risk Responses: Tools and Techniques

1. Strategies for negative risks or threats


2. Strategies for positive risks or opportunities
3. Contingent response strategies
4. Expert judgment

May 11, 2014 67


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1. Strategies for negative risks or threats
• Risk avoidance is a risk response strategy
Avoid whereby the project team acts to eliminate the
threat or protect the project from its impact.

• Risk transference is a risk response strategy whereby the

Transfer project team shifts the impact of a threat to a third party,


together with ownership of the response.

• Risk mitigation is a risk response strategy whereby


Mitigate the project team acts to reduce the probability of
occurrence or impact of a risk.

• Risk acceptance is a risk response strategy whereby


Accept the project team decides to acknowledge the risk
and not take any action unless the risk occurs.

May 11, 2014 69


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2. Strategies for Positive Risks or Opportunities

• The exploit strategy may be selected for risks with


Exploit positive impacts where the organization wishes to
ensure that the opportunity is realized.

• Sharing a positive risk involves allocating some or all of the

Share ownership of the opportunity to a third party who is best able to


capture the opportunity for the benefit of the project.

• The enhance strategy is used to increase the probability and/or the


Enhance positive impacts of an opportunity. E.g adding more resources to an
activity to finish it earlier.

• Accepting an opportunity is being willing to take


Accept advantage of the opportunity if it arises, but not actively
pursuing it.

May 11, 2014 70


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3. Contingent Response Strategies
• Some responses are designed for use only if
certain events occur.
• For some risks, it is appropriate for the project
team to make a response plan that will only
be executed under certain predefined
conditions.
• Risk responses identified using this technique
are often called contingency plans or fallback
plans.
May 11, 2014 71
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4. Expert Judgment

Expert judgment is input from


knowledgeable parties pertaining to
the actions to be taken on a specific
and defined risk.

May 11, 2014 72


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Plan Risk Responses: Outputs
1. Project Management Plan Updates
Schedule management plan
Cost management plan
Quality management plan
Procurement management plan
Human resource management plan
Scope baseline
Schedule baseline
Cost baseline
2. Project Documents Updates

May 11, 2014 73


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Terminologies

Trigger

Management
Fallback plans
Reserves

Risk Owner

Contingency
Residual risks
reserves

Secondary
risks

May 11, 2014 74


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Control Risks

* Control Risks is the process of implementing risk response plans,


tracking identified risks, monitoring residual risks, identifying new risks,
and evaluating risk process effectiveness throughout the project.
Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, figure11-20, Page 349.
May 11, 2014 75
* These definitions are taken from the Glossary of the Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK ® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013.

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Things to know
Contingency reserves for
Risk response owner
Project assumptions are cost or schedule should
reports periodically to the
still valid. be adjusted based on the
project manager
current risk assessment.

Analysis shows an
Risk management policies and assessed risk has
procedures are being followed changed or can be
retired.

Project work should be continuously monitored


for new, changing, and outdated risks.
May 11, 2014 76
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Control Risks: Inputs

Project Work Work


management Risk register performance performance
plan data reports

May 11, 2014 77


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Control Risks: Tools and Techniques
1. Risk reassessment
2. Risk audits
3. Variance and trend analysis
4. Technical performance measurement
5. Reserve analysis
6. Meetings

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1. Risk reassessment

* Risk reassessment is the


identification of new risks,
reassessment of current risks,
and the closing of risks that
are outdated.

May 11, 2014 79


* These definitions are taken from the Glossary of the Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK ® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013.

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2. Risk Audit

* Examination and documentation


of the effectiveness of risk
responses in dealing with identified
risks and their root causes, as well
as the effectiveness of the risk
management process.

May 11, 2014 80


* These definitions are taken from the Glossary of the Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK ® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013.

© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
3. Variance and trend analysis

A technique for determining the


cause and degree of difference
between the baseline and
actual performance. (Variance
Analysis)

An analytical technique that uses


mathematical models to forecast
future outcomes based on
historical results. (Trend Analysis)

May 11, 2014 81


* These definitions are taken from the Glossary of the Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK ® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013.

© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
4. Technical performance measurement

Technical performance
measurement compares technical
accomplishments during project
execution to the schedule of
technical achievement.

May 11, 2014 82


* These definitions are taken from the Glossary of the Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK ® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013.

© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
5. Reserve analysis

* An analytical technique to
determine the essential features
and relationships of components
in the project management plan
to establish a reserve for the
schedule duration, budget,
estimated cost, or funds for
a project.

May 11, 2014 83


* These definitions are taken from the Glossary of the Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK ® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013.

© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
6. Meetings

Project risk management should


be an agenda item at periodic
status meetings. The amount of
time required for that item will
vary, depending upon the risks
that have been identified, their
priority, and difficulty of
response.

May 11, 2014 84


* These definitions are taken from the Glossary of the Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK ® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013.

© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Control Risks: Outputs
1. Work performance information
2. Change requests
3. Project management plan updates
4. Project documents updates
5. Organizational process assets updates

May 11, 2014 85


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CHAPTER END
May 11, 2014 86
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