Project Risk Management Overview
Project Risk Management Overview
PMI, PMP, PMBOK and the PMI Registered Education Provider logo are registered marks of the Project Management Institute, Inc.
May 11, 2014 1
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
What is a Risk ?
4 Quality
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
What is Project Risk Management ?
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Risk, Uncertainty & Cost of changes
Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, Figure 2-9, Page 40.
May 11, 2014 4
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
• Identified, analyzed and
Known responses created. (proactive)
risks • Assign contingency reserve if it
can’t be managed proactively.
≠
May 11, 2014 6
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Risk attitude among organization and stakeholders
Risk appetite – the degree of Risk tolerance – the degree, Risk threshold – measures along
uncertainty an entity is willing amount or volume of risk that the level of uncertainty or the level
to take on in anticipation of a an organization or individual of impact at which a stakeholder
reward. will withstand. may have specific interest.
The organization is willing to accept The organization or stakeholder is The organization or stakeholder will
reasonable risk to the cost on this willing to accept risk of up to 8% NOT accept a risk that may increase the
project. increase in the project cost. project cost by more than 9%.
Project risk
Positive and negative risks are
could exist
commonly known as
from initiation
opportunities and threats.
till closing.
Plan Risk
Identify Risks
Responses
Control
Risks
Perform Perform
Quantitative Qualitative
Risk Analysis Risk Analysis
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Plan Risk Management Data Flow Diagram
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Why do we need these inputs?
• The project management plan provides current
scope, schedule, and cost baseline that can show
risk-affected areas.
• The project charter can provide information on
high-level risks, project descriptions, and
requirements.
• The stakeholder register, contains full details of
stakeholders which could be helpful to assign risk
management roles.
• Analytical techniques
– Analytical techniques are used to understand and
define the overall risk management context of the
project.
• Stakeholder risk analysis means identifying the
stakeholders, types of risks, extent of risks, levels of
stakeholder commitment, and degree of influence.
• Expert Judgment
– To ensure a comprehensive establishment of the
risk management plan, judgment, and expertise
should be considered from groups or individuals
with specialized training or knowledge on the
subject area.
Insignificant cost < 3% cost 3% - 5% cost 5%-10% cost > 10% cost
Cost increase increase increase increase increase
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Plan Risk Management: Outputs
• Risk Management Plan
– Probability and impact matrix
– Revised stakeholders’ tolerances
– Reporting formats
– Tracking
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Identify Risk Process
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Key Points
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
2. Delphi technique
1. An information gathering technique used
as a way to reach a consensus of experts
on a subject.
2. Experts on the subject participate in this
technique anonymously.
3. A facilitator uses a questionnaire to solicit
ideas about the important project points
related to the subject.
4. The responses are summarized and are
then re-circulated to the experts for
further comment.
5. Consensus may be reached in a few
rounds of this process.
6. The Delphi technique helps reduce bias in
the data and keeps any one person from
having undue influence on the outcome.
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
3. Interviewing
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
3. Checklist Analysis
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
5. Diagramming Techniques
• Cause and effect diagrams
– * A decomposition technique that helps trace an
undesirable effect back to its root causes .
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
6. SWOT Analysis
Analysis of strengths,
weaknesses, opportunities,
and threats of an organization,
project, or option.
Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, figure11-8, Page 328.
May 11, 2014 38
* These definitions are taken from the Glossary of the Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK ® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013.
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Things to know
It enables project
Assesses the priority of Focus on high-priority
managers to reduce the
identified risks risks.
level of uncertainty
Risk
Management Scope Baseline Risk Register
Plan
Organizational
EEF
Process Assets
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
May 11, 2014 44
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
3. Risk Data Quality Assessment
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
4. Risk Categorization
* Organization by
sources of risk (e.g.,
using the RBS), the area
of the project affected
(e.g., using the WBS), or
other useful category
(e.g., project phase) to
determine the areas of
the project most
exposed to the effects
of uncertainty.
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
5. Risk Urgency Assessment
Risks requiring near-term responses may
be considered more urgent to address.
Indicators of priority may include
probability of detecting the risk, time to
affect a risk response, symptoms and
warning signs, and the risk rating.
In some qualitative analyses, the
assessment of risk urgency is combined
with the risk ranking that is determined
from the probability and impact matrix to
give a final risk severity rating.
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
6. Expert Judgment
Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, figure11-11, Page 334.
May 11, 2014 50
* These definitions are taken from the Glossary of the Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK ® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013.
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis: Inputs
1. Sensitivity analysis
2. Expected monetary value analysis
3. Modeling and simulation
Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013, figure11-11, Page 334.
May 11, 2014 56
* These definitions are taken from the Glossary of the Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK ® Guide) - Fifth Edition, Project Management Institute, Inc., 2013.
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Expected monetary value analysis
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
3. Expert Judgment
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Plan Risk Responses: Inputs
Risk management
Risk register
plan
Follows of
Optimum risk qualitative and or
Realistic
response quantitative
analysis
Agreed upon
Cost-effective in meeting the
by all parties
challenge
involved
Trigger
Management
Fallback plans
Reserves
Risk Owner
Contingency
Residual risks
reserves
Secondary
risks
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Things to know
Contingency reserves for
Risk response owner
Project assumptions are cost or schedule should
reports periodically to the
still valid. be adjusted based on the
project manager
current risk assessment.
Analysis shows an
Risk management policies and assessed risk has
procedures are being followed changed or can be
retired.
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
2. Risk Audit
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
3. Variance and trend analysis
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
4. Technical performance measurement
Technical performance
measurement compares technical
accomplishments during project
execution to the schedule of
technical achievement.
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
5. Reserve analysis
* An analytical technique to
determine the essential features
and relationships of components
in the project management plan
to establish a reserve for the
schedule duration, budget,
estimated cost, or funds for
a project.
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
6. Meetings
© 2014 3FOLD Education Centre . All rights reserved . info@[Link] . [Link] . PMP® Exam Review . RMP® Exam Review
Control Risks: Outputs
1. Work performance information
2. Change requests
3. Project management plan updates
4. Project documents updates
5. Organizational process assets updates