W H A T IS C L I M A T E C HA N G E ?

WHAT IS CLIMATE
CHANGE?

C
limate change has emerged as the biggest developmental challenge
today. Climate deniers have had to eat humble pie in the face of
mounting scientific evidence. In the last 100 years, the Earth has
become hotter by 10C. A warming world has played havoc with global
climate systems causing unprecedented extreme weather events —droughts,
floods, cyclones, dust storms, crop loss and triggering new diseases. Significantly,
people living in poor and developing countries are the worst affected as they do
not have the capacities to grapple or cope with the changes.
There are many definitions of climate change. According to the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (unfccc), an international
treaty adopted in 1992: “Climate change is a change of climate which is attributed
directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global
atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over
comparable time periods.” The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(ipcc), a body of scientists set up by the World Meteorological Organization and
the United Nations Environment Programme (unep), defines climate change
as “a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (for example, by
using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or variability of its properties,
and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer”.

The greenhouse
effect
Solar
radiation powers
the climate
system
The blanket of
Some solar radiation greenhouse gases
is reflected by prevents some
the Earth and the of the heat
atmosphere radiated by Earth
from escaping
Atmosphere

Earth

More than half the solar Earth emits longwave

radiation is absorbed radiation to counter
by the Earth's surface the trapped
and warms it solar radiation
Source: Le Treut et al 2007, ‘Historical overview of climate change’, Climate Change 2007:
The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 115

10 CLIMATE CHANGE READER FOR UNIVERSITIES

[Link] 10 27/02/19 12:33 PM

 In its Fourth Assessment Report in 2007, ipcc says, “Climate change may
be due to internal processes and/or external forcings. Some external influences,
such as changes in solar radiation and volcanism, occur naturally and contribute
to the total natural variability of the climate system. Other external changes,
such as the change in composition of the atmosphere that began with the
industrial revolution, are the result of human activity.”
Though the Earth has been warming, or cooling through the ages, scientific
evidence suggests that the present heating is due to human activities—
the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation among others. Scientists have
documented three warming periods, the Holocene thermal maximum, which
occurred 5,000 to 9,000 years ago; the last interglacial, which occurred 116,000
to 129,000 years ago; and, the mid-Pliocene warm period, which occurred 3 to
3.3 million years ago (see ‘Lecture #1’, p16).
In the case of the first two periods, the climate changes were caused
by changes in the Earth’s orbit. The mid-Pliocene event was the result of
atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations that were at similar levels
to what they are today. But in each period, the planet had warmed at a much
slower rate than it is warming today, as a result of rising greenhouse gas (ghg)
emissions caused by humans.
Consider these tipping points: CO2 levels in the air are at their highest
in 650,000 years—409.33 parts per million (ppm) as of October 2018, says
the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (noaa) (see graph
‘Rise in CO2 level’, p12); 17 of the 18 warmest years in recorded history have
occurred since 2001; in 2012, Arctic summer sea ice shrunk to its lowest on
record; satellite data show that the Earth’s polar ice sheets are losing mass; and,
global average sea level has risen nearly 10-25 cm over the past 100 years, says
the Second Assessment Report of the ipcc.

CLIMATE SYSTEM
The Earth’s climate system is a complex, interactive system consisting of the
atmosphere, land surface, snow and ice, oceans and other bodies of water, and
living things (see ‘The Greenhouse Effect’ on p10). The atmospheric component
of the climate system most obviously characterises climate; hence climate is
generally defined as “average weather”.
As such, climate change and weather are intertwined. Observations can show
there have been changes in weather, and it is the statistics of changes in weather
over time that identify climate change. The climate system evolves in time under
the influence of its own internal dynamics. It can also evolve due to changes in
external factors that affect climate—these factors are called “forcings”. External
forcing includes natural phenomena, such as volcanic eruptions and solar
variations, as well as human-induced changes in the chemical composition of
the atmosphere.
So how does the Earth balance these energy fluctuations in the atmosphere?
Radiative energy from the Sun powers the climate system. About 30 per cent
of the sunlight that reaches the top of the atmosphere is reflected back to space.
Roughly two-thirds of this reflection are due to clouds and small particles in the

CLIMATE CHANGE READER FOR UNIVERSITIES 11

[Link] 11 27/02/19 12:33 PM

 W H A T IS C L I M A T E C HA N G E ?

atmosphere known as “aerosols”. Light-coloured areas of the Earth’s surface—

mainly snow, ice and deserts—reflect the remaining sunlight.
The energy not reflected back to space is absorbed by the Earth’s surface and
atmosphere, and amounts to approximately 240 Watts per square metre (W/sq
m). To balance the incoming energy, the Earth itself must radiate, on average,
the same amount of energy back to space. The Earth does this by emitting
outgoing long wave radiation. Everything on Earth emits long wave radiation
continuously. The warmer an object, the more heat energy it radiates.
To emit 240 W/sq m, a surface would have to have a temperature of –19°C.
This is much colder than actual conditions at the Earth’s surface. The requisite
–19°C is found about 5 km above the surface. This is where the greenhouse
effect comes into play.
The global mean surface temperature of Earth is about 14°C. This is due to
the presence of gases, known as greenhouse gases (ghg), which act as a partial
blanket for the long wave radiation coming from the surface. This blanketing is
known as the natural greenhouse effect.
The glass walls in a garden greenhouse reduce airflow and increase the
temperature of the air inside. Analogously, but through a different physical
process, the Earth’s greenhouse effect warms the surface of the planet. Without
the natural greenhouse effect, the average temperature at Earth’s surface would
be below the freezing point of water. Thus, Earth’s natural greenhouse effect
makes life as we know it possible.
The natural ghg effect exists only in theory. While many factors continue
to influence climate, scientists are now quite clear that human activities have
become the dominant force, and are responsible for most of the warming
observed over the past 50 years.
Human activities contribute to climate change by causing changes in Earth’s
atmosphere in the amounts of ghgs, aerosols (small particles), and cloudiness.
The largest known contribution to the enhanced ghg effect comes from the
burning of fossil fuels, which releases CO2 gas to the atmosphere.
There are about 61 gases, most of them human-invented, which can alter the
balance of the atmosphere. The concentration of 19 such gases is controlled by

400

Rise in CO2 level

CO2 emissions (in parts per million)

390
Global carbon dioxide levels have gone past the 380
safe limit of 350 parts per million (ppm) and 378.31
380 376.81
have been above 400 ppm since 2015 374.53
370.3 371.92
370 367.88 368.77
365.15
361.59 363.08
359.83
360 356.97 357.8

350
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: EM-DAT, CRED; NASA; UNFCCC

12 CLIMATE CHANGE READER FOR UNIVERSITIES

[Link] 12 27/02/19 12:33 PM

 the Montreal Protocol, a global treaty to ban substances that deplete the ozone
layer that the world adopted in 1987. Many other gases have so far escaped
regulation because their abundance, or lifetime, in the atmosphere is too
miniscule, or little.
The 1997 Kyoto Protocol of unfccc focuses on ghg not regulated under
the Montreal Protocol. Among them are CO2, methane (CH4), nitrous oxide
(N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (hfcs), perfluorocarbons (pfcs) and sulphur
hexafluoride (SF6).
The most abundant and important ghg in the atmosphere is water vapour
(H2O). Theoretically, human activities have only a small direct influence on the
amount of atmospheric water vapour. But such activities—say, burning fossil
fuels—have huge potential to indirectly affect water vapour concentrations, by
changing the concentration and abundance of the principal ghgs.
A warmer atmosphere contains more water vapour, creating conditions for
further warming. ghgs accumulate in the atmosphere, causing concentrations
to increase with time (see ‘The greenhouse effect’, p10). Global Warming Potential
or gwp is a metric, or a standard of measurement, used to put a quantifiable
figure to the impact of a ghg on climate change. It is not a stand-alone measure
(say, parts per million or gigatonne). Implicit to this metric is a comparison
with other gases with respect to their (relative) impact on climate forcing (see
‘Lecture #1’, p16).
In fact, the 20 warmest years on record have occurred in the last 22 years. This
trend also sits in perfectly with the emission rates of greenhouse gases (ghgs)
which were at a record high in 2018, according to the World Meteorological
Organisation (wmo). Another major indicator of the warming trend due to
climate change is ocean heat content (ohc). The year 2018 recorded a new high
in terms of ohc since observations began in 1940. There is more heat stored in
the Earth’s oceans today than at any time in the last 78 years. When ghgs trap
heat in the atmosphere some of it gets converted into surface temperature but
90 per cent of it gets assimilated into the oceans. Therefore ohc is a much better
indicator of climate change than surface temperatures.  409.33
407.06
405.59
402.61
399.67
395.04 397.59
392.66
390.79
388.23
380.9 384.83 386.41
382.64
378.31

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

CLIMATE CHANGE READER FOR UNIVERSITIES 13

[Link] 13 27/02/19 12:33 PM

 W H A T IS C L I M A T E C HA N G E ?

CASE STUDY #1

Dust bowel WD
How changing global Cyclonic circulations
weather patterns triggered In the build-up of the
massive storms in the
the dust storms in India beginning of May, five
in May 2018, separate cyclonic
considered to be May 9-10 circulations were
the worst one in observed across the
country
the last 40 years

May 9-10
May 2-3
May 9-10
May 2-3
May 13-14
May 2-3, 13-14, 16-17
Feb 11-12
May 13-14
April 6-10, 11-12
May 9-10 April 29-30
April 11-12 May 2-3 May 6
May 15-16 March 29-30
May 2-3
May 9-10 April 29
April 6-7
May 13-14

May 20

May 2-3
Feb 11-12
May 13-14
May 2

Feb 11-12 May 15-16

Feb 11-12

Unusually hot conditions

Temperatures over 400C observed May 2-3
in northwest, central, east and Feb 11-12
north peninsular India. Interaction
of hot air near the surface with April 3-5
April 15 May 2-3 March 26
colder winds from the Western May 13-14
May 9-10
Disturbances gives rise to intense
and widespread storms
May 13-14
Legends
Area under desertification
Storms (Hail, thunder, dust)
Wind direction
Prepared by Down To Earth-Centre for Science and Environment Data Centre
Infographics: Raj Kumar Singh; Analysis: Kiran Pandey and Rajit Sengupta
Data source: Desertification and Land Degradation, Atlas of India 2016 by Space
Applications Centre, ISRO, NDMA and UP State DMA and media reports. For more related
infographics refer to: [Link]/infographics

14 CLIMATE CHANGE READER FOR UNIVERSITIES

[Link] 14 27/02/19 12:33 PM

 Between February and May in 2018, India witnessed
Western Disturbances an unprecedented storm season—more than 44 storms
While Western Disturbances (WDs) normally in 16 states. This brings out the linkages of
peak between December and February, a geographically distant events related to climate change.
greater number of active WDs have been “Climatologically, these storms were anything but
observed in spring and summer months. Instead
typical. Initial analyses have revealed several reasons
of the normal 2-3 active WDs seen during the
months of April and May, over the past month for the stormy weather, including the activity of the
and a half, at least 10 separate active WDs have Western Disturbances (WDs), the low pressure over the
been observed. WDs carry high velocity winds Indo-Gangetic plains and the intense heating in west
that agitate the atmosphere and aggravate and northwest India,” said M Mohapatra of the India
storm conditions Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi.
As the Arctic warms, the difference in temperature
between the Arctic and the equator has reduced,
particularly during recent winters which have seen
highly anomalous heating around the North Pole. A
warmer Arctic has been correlated to the extended
winters punctuated with blasts of frigid weather in the
northern hemisphere. The weakening temperature
gradient is, in fact, causing the jet streams to meander
rather than take a straight course which, in turn,
affects the seasonality and movement of the WDs.
Additionally, steep increases in temperatures in the
Trough
Western Himalayan region and the Tibetan Plateau
A trough is an extended
area of low pressure have been linked to a further destabilisation of climatic
developed along the East- patterns in the region. Western Himalayas and the
West axis. This where Tibetan Plateau are considered to play a crucial role
moisture-laden winds from in maintaining the hydrological and weather cycles
March 25
May 7 the Bay of Bengal met hot over the Indian subcontinent. Rapid warming, which
and dry air from central and has caused temperatures to increase by up to 3.5°C
western India. These winds since 1951, have been linked with increased variability
also came in contact with in the distribution and direction of WDs and
April 17
the cold front that develops associated precipitation.
due to active WDs. The There are clear indications of how the general trend
confluence of these different
of warming is exacerbating stormy weather during the
winds culminated in intense
and widespread storms pre-monsoon season. The general physics behind storms
across the Indo-Gangetic unequivocally points at a higher incidence and intensity.
plain. Similarly a North- A review of the EM-DAT Disaster Database that
South trough was formed compiles information regarding disasters the world over
from Bihar to northern reveals a worrying trend. One has to go back 40 years
Tamil Nadu, along which to see the last time convective storms during this
stormy weather was season caused comparative loss of life. In 1978, storms
observed in Telangana, in March and April across North and East India caused
Andhra Pradesh and some the deaths of over 600 people. But large-scale
parts of Karnataka convective storms in the pre-monsoon season were few
and far between. Between 1980 and 2003, just nine
Easterly winds
deadly convective storms were recorded in India in the
Winds from the Bay of Bengal carry March-May period. However, a steep increase has been
moisture and are associated with
observed in the last 15 years. Between 2003 and 2017,
pre-monsoon thunder storms in the
eastern coast. Moving towards the 22 such storms were observed over the Indian region
troughs, these winds provided the accounting for nearly 700 fatalities compared to 640
moisture that further intensified the fatalities in the preceding 22-year period. In 2018, 423
convective storms people have died owing to extreme weather systems. 

CLIMATE CHANGE READER FOR UNIVERSITIES 15

[Link] 15 27/02/19 12:33 PM