Probability

Chapter Overview and Pacing

Year-long and two-year pacing: pages T20–T21.

PACING (days)
Regular Block
LESSON OBJECTIVES Basic/ Basic/
Average Advanced Average Advanced
Counting Outcomes (pp. 754–759) optional 1 optional 0.5
• Count outcomes using a tree diagram.
• Count outcomes using the Fundamental Counting Principle.
Follow-Up: Use finite graphs to determine whether a route is traceable.
Permutations and Combinations (pp. 760–767) optional 2 optional 1
• Determine probabilities using permutations.
• Determine probabilities using combinations.
Probability of Compound Events (pp. 769–776) optional 2 optional 1
• Find the probability of two independent events or dependent events.
• Find the probability of two mutually exclusive or inclusive events.
Probability Distributions (pp. 777–781) optional 2 optional 1
• Use random variables to compute probability.
• Use probability distributions to solve real-world problems.
Probability Simulations (pp. 782–788) optional 2 optional 1
• Use theoretical and experimental probability to represent and solve problems involving
uncertainty.
• Perform probability simulations to model real-world situations involving uncertainty.
Study Guide and Practice Test (pp. 789–793) optional 1 optional 0.5
Standardized Test Practice (pp. 794–795)
Chapter Assessment optional 1 optional 0.5
TOTAL 11 5.5

An electronic version of this chapter is available on StudentWorksTM. This backpack solution CD-ROM
allows students instant access to the Student Edition, lesson worksheet pages, and web resources.

752A Chapter 14 Probability

 Timesaving Tools
™

All-In-One Planner
and Resource Center
Chapter Resource Manager See pages T5 and T21.

CHAPTER 14 RESOURCE MASTERS

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831–832 833–834 835 836 107 14-1 14-1

837–838 839–840 841 842 875 SC 27 108 14-2 14-2

843–844 845–846 847 848 875, 877 47–48, SM 109–114 109 14-3 14-3 35
55–56,
67–70,
99–100
849–850 851–852 853 854 876 GCS 50 110 14-4 14-4

855–856 857–858 859 860 876 GCS 49, 111 14-5 14-5 die, graphing calculator
SC 28

861–874, 112
878–880

*Key to Abbreviations: GCS
Graphing Calculator and Spreadsheet Masters,

SC
School-to-Career Masters,
SM
Science and Mathematics Lab Manual

ELL Study Guide and Intervention, Skills Practice, Practice, and Parent
and Student Study Guide Workbooks are also available in Spanish.

Chapter 14 Probability 752B

 Mathematical Connections
and Background
Continuity of Instruction Counting Outcomes
Given a choice of three different sandwiches,
four different side dishes, and five different soft drinks,
how many lunch combinations are there? One can find
out by making a tree diagram of all possible outcomes.
Prior Knowledge In the first column, list all of the possibilities for one
In Chapter 2, students were shown how to choice. After each of those possibilities, list all the possi-
find the probability and odds of a simple bilities of another choice. Repeat for all the possibilities
event. While these techniques are great for for each choice that is to be made. The list of all possible
use with dice, spinners, and board games, outcomes is written in the last column. This is the sam-
ple space. Each item in the sample space is an event.
situations in the real world produce much Another method of counting outcomes uses the
more complex probability situations. Fundamental Counting Principle. This principle states
that given an event M that can occur m ways followed
by an event N that occurs n ways, then the event M
followed by event N can occur m  n ways. In other
words, number of choices  number of choices  number of
choices…, for each choice that is to be made.
A factorial is the product of a number and all the
positive integers between that number and zero.
Factorials can be used to determine the number of
This Chapter arrangements or orders for a set of data or events. They
are also used to determine permutations and combina-
In this chapter, students will go beyond sim- tions that are studied in the next lesson.
ple probability. They will learn to find prob-
abilities using the Fundamental Counting
Principle, and by using permutations and
combinations. Then students will move on to Permutations and Combinations
find probabilities of compound events, and A permutation is an arrangement or listing in
to use probability distributions and which order or placement is important. For example, if
simulations. three students are being picked for class president, vice-
president, and secretary, then the order in which they
are picked is important. Therefore, this is a permutation.
Tree diagrams can be used to show permutations. A
symbol for permutations is nPr , where n is the number
of items to choose from and r is the number of items
to be chosen. You find the number of permutations by
n!
using the formula  .
Future Connections (n  r)!
A combination is an arrangement in which order
Understanding probability can be an impor- or placement is not important. For example when pick-
tant decision-making tool. We are often asked ing two pizza toppings from a list of eight, the order in
to make decisions based on whether we which the toppings are picked is not important. So this
think an event will occur. Using probability is a combination. The symbol for a combination is nCr.
can take some of the guesswork out of The only way the formula for the number of combina-
these decisions. tions differs from the formula for the number of permu-
tations is that the denominator is multiplied by r!. The
n!
formula is  .
(n  r)!r!

752C Chapter 14 Probability

 Probability of Compound Probability Simulations
Events The probabilities studied so far have been
A simple event is a single event. A compound theoretical probabilities. These are probabilities that
event is two or more simple events. Predicting the are determined mathematically and describe what
probability of rain on two separate days is an example should happen. Experimental probability is the proba-
of finding the probability of a compound event. If bility of an event found by repeated experimentation.
two events occur separately and the outcome of one The experimentation is called a simulation. What
does not affect the outcome of the other, then the should happen and what actually does happen may
events are independent. However, if the outcome of differ. Given few trials, experimental probability may
one event does affect the outcome of the other event, differ greatly from the calculated theoretical probabil-
then the events are dependent. ity. However, the more trials conducted, the more
To find the compound probability of two closely experimental probability will be to theoretical
independent events, find the product of the probabili- probability. For example, tossing a die 18 times may
ties of each event: P(A)  P(B). To find the probability only result in one outcome of 1. However, theoretical
1
of two dependent events, multiply the probability of probability predicts a  probability. If you toss the die
6
the first event by the probability of the second event
200 times, however, the experimental probability will
following the first event: P(A)  P(B following A).
1
Mutually exclusive events are events that can- probably be very close to  .
6
not occur at the same time. An example is rolling an
even number and an odd number on a die. An even
and an odd number cannot be rolled at the same time
with one die. To find the probability of mutually
exclusive events, find the sum of the probabilities of
the two events: P(A) + P(B).
Inclusive events can occur at the same time.
For example, rolling an odd number or a 5 on a die.
Five is an odd number, so both can be rolled at the
same time. Use the formula P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
to find the probability of inclusive events.

Probability Distributions
A random variable is a variable whose value is
the numerical outcome of a random event. The prob-
ability of every possible value of the random variable
X is called a probability distribution. A probability
distribution can be represented in a table or in a
probability histogram. Quick Review
Math Handbook
Hot Words includes a glossary of
terms while Hot Topics consists of
explanations of key mathematical
concepts with exercises to test
comprehension. This valuable
resource can be used as a reference in
the classroom or for home study.

Lesson Hot Topics Section Lesson Hot Topics Section

14-1 4.5, 4.6 14-4 2.1, 4.6
14-2 2.3, 2.4, 4.5 14-5 4.6
14-3 2.9, 4.6

Additional mathematical information and teaching notes are available at [Link]/key_concepts.

Chapter 14 Probability 752D

 and Assessment
Key to Abbreviations:
TWE = Teacher Wraparound Edition; CRM = Chapter Resource Masters

Type Student Edition Teacher Resources Technology/Internet

Ongoing Prerequisite Skills, pp. 753, 758, 5-Minute Check Transparencies AlgePASS: Tutorial Plus, Lesson 35
INTERVENTION

767, 776, 781 Prerequisite Skills Workbook, pp. 47–48, 55–56, [Link]/self_check_quiz
Practice Quiz 1, p. 767 67–70, 99–100 [Link]/extra_examples
Practice Quiz 2, p. 781 Quizzes, CRM pp. 875–876
Mid-Chapter Test, CRM p. 877
Study Guide and Intervention, CRM pp. 831–832,
837–838, 843–844, 849–850, 855–856
Mixed pp. 758, 767, 776, 781, 788 Cumulative Review, CRM p. 878
Review
Error Find the Error, pp. 764, 773 Find the Error, TWE pp. 764, 773
Analysis Common Misconceptions, p. 760 Tips for New Teachers, TWE pp. 763, 779
Standardized pp. 758, 762, 764, 766, 776, TWE pp. 794–795 Standardized Test Practice
Test Practice 780, 787, 793, 794–795 Standardized Test Practice, CRM pp. 879–880 CD-ROM
[Link]/
standardized_test
Open-Ended Writing in Math, pp. 757, 766, Modeling: TWE pp. 758, 781, 788
Assessment 776, 780, 787 Speaking: TWE p. 767
Open Ended, pp. 756, 764, 772, Writing: TWE p. 776
ASSESSMENT

779, 785 Open-Ended Assessment, CRM p. 873

Standardized Test, p. 795
Chapter Study Guide, pp. 789–792 Multiple-Choice Tests (Forms 1, 2A, 2B), ExamView® Pro (see below)
Assessment Practice Test, p. 793 CRM pp. 861–866 MindJogger Videoquizzes
Free-Response Tests (Forms 2C, 2D, 3), [Link]/
CRM pp. 867–872 vocabulary_review
Vocabulary Test/Review, CRM p. 874 [Link]/chapter_test

For more information on

Yearly ProgressPro, see p. 704.
ExamView® Pro
Use the networkable ExamView® Pro to:
Algebra Lesson Yearly ProgressPro Skill Lesson
• Create multiple versions of tests.
14-1 Counting Outcomes • Create modified tests for Inclusion students.
14-2 Permutations and Combinations • Edit existing questions and add your own questions.
14-3 Probability of Compound Events • Use built-in state curriculum correlations to create
14-4 Probability Distributions tests aligned with state standards.
• Change English tests to Spanish and vice versa.
14-5 Probability Simulations

For more information on Intervention and Assessment, see pp. T8–T11.

752E Chapter 14 Probability
Reading and Writing in Mathematics
Glencoe Algebra 1 provides numerous opportunities to incorporate reading and writing
into the mathematics classroom.
Student Edition Additional Resources
• Foldables Study Organizer, p. 753 • Vocabulary Builder worksheets require students to
• Concept Check questions require students to verbalize define and give examples for key vocabulary terms as
and write about what they have learned in the lesson. they progress through the chapter. (Chapter 14 Resource
(pp. 756, 764, 772, 779, 785) Masters, pp. vii-viii)
• Reading Mathematics, p. 768 • Reading to Learn Mathematics master for each lesson
• Writing in Math questions in every lesson, pp. 757, 766, (Chapter 14 Resource Masters, pp. 835, 841, 847, 853,
776, 780, 787 859)
• Reading Study Tip, pp. 771, 777, 783 • Vocabulary PuzzleMaker software creates crossword,
• WebQuest, pp. 766, 788 jumble, and word search puzzles using vocabulary lists
that you can customize.
Teacher Wraparound Edition • Teaching Mathematics with Foldables provides
suggestions for promoting cognition and language.
• Foldables Study Organizer, pp. 753, 789 • Reading and Writing in the Mathematics Classroom
• Study Notebook suggestions, pp. 756, 759, 764, 768, • WebQuest and Project Resources
772, 779, 785 • Hot Words/Hot Topics Sections 2.1, 2.3, 2.4, 2.9, 4.5, 4.6
• Modeling activities, pp. 758, 781, 788
• Speaking activities, p. 767
• Writing activities, p. 776
• ELL Resources, pp. 752, 757, 766, 768, 774, 780,
787, 789

For more information on Reading and Writing in Mathematics, see pp. T6–T7.

Most students already

have some knowledge of the topics presented in
Chapter 14. Help them build on this knowledge
using a Know-Want to Learn-Learned (KWL) Compound Events
chart like the one at the right. Before starting
Know Want to Learn Learned
the chapter, draw the chart on an overhead
transparency. Name some topics covered in the The probability of What is the
chapter, such as permutations and probability of two independent probability of two
events A and B events that cannot
compound events. Have students tell what they
occurring is the occur at the same
already know about the topics as you record product of the time?
their ideas. Next, have them list what they probability of A and
would like to know about the topics. After the probability of B.
working through the chapter, again display the
chart and have students fill in the last column,
describing what they have learned.

Chapter 14 Probability 752F

 Notes
Probability
Have students read over the list
of objectives and make a list of
any words with which they are
not familiar. • Lesson 14-1 Count outcomes using the
Key Vocabulary
Fundamental Counting Principle. • permutation (p. 760)
• Lesson 14-2 Determine probabilities using • combination (p. 762)
permutations and combinations. • compound event (p. 769)
• Lesson 14-3 Find probabilities of compound • theoretical probability (p. 782)
events.
• experimental probability (p. 782)
Point out to students that this is • Lesson 14-4 Use probability distributions.
only one of many reasons why • Lesson 14-5 Use probability simulations.
each objective is important.
Others are provided in the
introduction to each lesson.
The United States Senate forms committees
to focus on different issues. These committees
are made up of senators from various states
and political parties. There are many ways
these committees could be formed. You will
learn how to find the number of possible committees in
Lesson 14-2.

NCTM Local
Lesson Standards Objectives
14-1 1, 5, 6, 8, 9,
10
14-1 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9,
Follow-Up 10
14-2 1, 5, 6, 8, 9,
10
14-3 1, 5, 6, 8, 9,
10
752 Chapter 14 Probability
14-4 1, 5, 6, 8, 9,
10
14-5 1, 5, 6, 8, 9,
10
Vocabulary Builder ELL

The Key Vocabulary list introduces students to some of the main vocabulary terms
Key to NCTM Standards: included in this chapter. For a more thorough vocabulary list with pronunciations of
1=Number & Operations, 2=Algebra, new words, give students the Vocabulary Builder worksheets found on pages vii and
3=Geometry, 4=Measurement, viii of the Chapter 14 Resource Masters. Encourage them to complete the definition
5=Data Analysis & Probability, 6=Problem of each term as they progress through the chapter. You may suggest that they add
Solving, 7=Reasoning & Proof, these sheets to their study notebooks for future reference when studying for the
8=Communication, 9=Connections, Chapter 14 test.
10=Representation
752 Chapter 14 Probability
Prerequisite Skills To be successful in this chapter, you’ll need to master This section provides a review of
these skills and be able to apply them in problem-solving situations. Review the basic concepts needed before
these skills before beginning Chapter 14.
beginning Chapter 14. Page
references are included for
For Lessons 14-2 through 14-5 Find Simple Probabilities
additional student help.
Determine the probability of each event if you randomly select a cube from a bag
containing 6 red cubes, 3 blue cubes, 4 yellow cubes, and 1 green cube. Additional review is provided in
(For review, see Lesson 2-6.) the Prerequisite Skills Workbook,
3 3 2 4 pp. 47–48, 55–56, 67–70, 99–100.
1. P(red)  2. P(blue)  3. P(yellow)  4. P(not red) 
7 14 7 7

For Lesson 14-2 Multiply Fractions Prerequisite Skills in the Getting

Find each product. (For review, see pages 800 and 801.) Ready for the Next Lesson section
4 3 3
5.    
5 6 5
6.    
7 4 7
7.     at the end of each exercise set
5 4 5 12 11 22 20 19 95 review a skill needed in the next
4 7 7 13 4 1 56 24 84
8.     9.     10.     lesson.
32 32 256 52 52 52 100 100 625

For Lesson 14-4 Write Decimals as Percents For Prerequisite

Write each decimal as a percent. (For review, see pages 804 and 805.) Lesson Skill
11. 0.725 72.5% 12. 0.148 14.8% 13. 0.4 40% 14. 0.0168 1.68% 14-2 Simple Probability (p. 758)
14-4 Expressing Fractions as
For Lesson 14-5 Write Fractions as Percents
Decimals (p. 776)
Write each fraction as a percent. Round to the nearest tenth. (For review, see pages 804 and 805.)
14-5 Writing Fractions as Percents
7 33 107 625
15.  87.5% 16.  41.3% 17.  85.6% 18.  61% (p. 781)
8 80 125 1024

Probability Make this Foldable to help you organize your notes. Begin with a
sheet of plain 821" by 11" paper.

Fold in Half Fold Again in Fourths

Fold in half lengthwise. Fold the top to the
bottom twice.

Cut Label
Open. Cut along the Label as shown.
folds to make four tabs.
Probability
Com-
Out- Permu- Combin- pound
comes tations ations Events

Reading and Writing As you read and study the chapter, write notes and examples for each concept
under the tabs.

Chapter 14 Probability 753

TM

Organization of Data with a Concept Map Begin with the

central chapter theme of Probability as the title and have students
record key words and phrases under the four tabs labeled
For more information outcomes, permutations, combinations, and compound events.
about Foldables, see Students use their Foldables to take notes, define terms, record
Teaching Mathematics concepts, and write examples. Foldable concept maps make great
with Foldables. study aids because students view main ideas, recall what they
know, and check their responses by looking under the tabs.

Chapter 14 Probability 753

 Lesson Counting Outcomes
Notes

• Count outcomes using a tree diagram.

1 Focus • Count outcomes using the Fundamental Counting Principle.

are possible win–loss records counted in football?

Vocabulary
5-Minute Check • tree diagram The championship in the Win–Loss
Transparency 14-1 Use as Game 1 Game 2 Game 3
• sample space Atlantic Coast Conference is Record
a quiz or review of Chapter 13. • event decided by the number of
win
win 3–0
• Fundamental Counting conference wins. If there is lose 2–1
a tie in conference wins, win
Mathematical Background notes Principle lose
win 2–1
then the team with more
are available for this lesson on • factorial lose 1–2
nonconference wins is
p. 752C. champion. If Florida State win
win 2–1
plays 3 nonconference games,
lose lose 1–2
are possible win-loss the diagram at the right win
shows the different records lose 1–2
records counted in lose 0–3
they could have for those
football? games.
Ask students:
• How many different ways can
the team end up with a 3–0
TREE DIAGRAMS One method used for counting the number of possible
record? one way outcomes is to draw a tree diagram. The last column of a tree diagram shows all of
• Why are there three different the possible outcomes. The list of all possible outcomes is called the sample space,
while any collection of one or more outcomes in the sample space is called an event.
ways the team could end up
with a 2–1 record? They could
win, win, lose; win, lose, win; or Example 1 Tree Diagram
lose, win, win. A football team uses red jerseys for road games, white jerseys for home
• Sports Only in the last few games, and gray jerseys for practice games. The team uses gray or black
pants, and black or white shoes. Use a tree diagram to determine the
years have college football number of possible uniforms.
teams been able to play over-
Jersey Pants Shoes Outcomes
time to break a tie score. Before
the overtime rule was Black RGB
Gray
White RGW
established, there were three Red
Black Black RBB
possible outcomes for a college White RBW
football game; win, lose, or tie.
How many different ways Gray Black WGB
could the teams record be White White WGW
Black WBB
determined in three games if Black
White WBW
ties were possible outcomes?
27 Gray
Black GGB
Gray White GGW
Black GBB
Black
White GBW

The tree diagram shows that there are 12 possible uniforms.

754 Chapter 14 Probability

Resource Manager
Workbook and Reproducible Masters Transparencies
Chapter 14 Resource Masters Parent and Student Study Guide 5-Minute Check Transparency 14-1
• Study Guide and Intervention, pp. 831–832 Workbook, p. 107 Answer Key Transparencies
• Skills Practice, p. 833
• Practice, p. 834 Technology
• Reading to Learn Mathematics, p. 835 Interactive Chalkboard
• Enrichment, p. 836
 THE FUNDAMENTAL COUNTING PRINCIPLE The number of possible
uniforms in Example 1 can also be found by multiplying the number of choices for
each item. If the team can choose from 3 different colored jerseys, 2 different colored
2 Teach
pants, and 2 different colored pairs of shoes, there are 3  2  2 or 12 possible
uniforms. This example illustrates the Fundamental Counting Principle. TREE DIAGRAMS
Fundamental Counting Principle In-Class Example Power
Point®
If an event M can occur in m ways and is followed by an event N that can occur
in n ways, then the event M followed by event N can occur in m  n ways. 1 At football games, a student
concession stand sells sand-
wiches on either wheat or rye
Example 2 Fundamental Counting Principle bread. The sandwiches come
The Uptown Deli offers a lunch special in which you can choose a sandwich, a with salami, turkey, or ham;
side dish, and a beverage. If there are 10 different sandwiches, 12 different side and either chips, a brownie, or
dishes, and 7 different beverages from which to choose, how many different
fruit. Use a tree diagram to
lunch specials can you order?
determine the number of pos-
Multiply to find the number of lunch specials.
sible sandwich combinations.
sandwich side dish beverage number of 18 possible combinations
choices choices choices specials
Bread Meat Side Item Outcomes
冦

冦
冦

冦
10  12  7
840 chips WSC
salami brownie WSB
The number of different lunch specials is 840. fruit WSF
chips WTC
wheat turkey brownie WTB
Example 3 Counting Arrangements fruit WTF
chips WHC
Mackenzie is setting up a display of the ten most popular video games from the ham brownie WHB
previous week. If she places the games side-by-side on a shelf, in how many fruit WHF
different ways can she arrange them? chips RSC
salami brownie RSB
The number of ways to arrange the games can be found by multiplying the
fruit RSF
number of choices for each position.
chips RTC
• Mackenzie has ten games from which to choose for the first position. rye turkey brownie RTB
• After choosing a game for the first position, there are nine games left from fruit RTF
which to choose for the second position. chips RHC
ham brownie RHB
• There are now eight choices for the third position. fruit RHF
• This process continues until there is only one choice left for the last position.

Let n represent the number of arrangements.

n
10  9  8  7  6  5  4  3  2  1 or 3,628,800
THE FUNDAMENTAL
COUNTING PRINCIPLE
There are 3,628,800 different ways to arrange the video games.
In-Class Examples Power
Point®
The expression n
10  9  8  7  6  5  4  3  2  1 used in Example 3 can be
written as 10! using a factorial. 2 The Too Cheap computer com-
pany sells custom made per-
Factorial sonal computers. Customers
• Words The expression n!, read n factorial, where n is greater than zero, have a choice of 11 different
is the product of all positive integers beginning with n and counting
backward to 1. hard drives, 6 different key-
• Symbols n!
n  (n  1)  (n  2)  …  3  2  1 boards, 4 different mice, and
• Example 5!
5  4  3  2  1 or 120
4 different monitors. How
many different custom
By definition, 0!
1.
computers can you order?
11
6
4
4  1056 different
[Link]/extra_examples Lesson 14-1 Counting Outcomes 755
custom computers
3 There are 8 students in the
Algebra Club at Central High
Differentiated Instruction School. The students want to
Logical Before you introduce the Fundamental Counting Principle, ask stand in a line for their year-
students to study Example 1 and make a conjecture about any book picture. How many
relationship between the number of possible jerseys, pants, and shoes different ways could the
and the number of outcomes. Guide students to see that the number 8 students stand for their
of outcomes is the product of the number of choices. picture?
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
40,320 ways they could stand

Lesson 14-1 Counting Outcomes 755

In-Class Examples Power Example 4 Factorial
Point®
Find the value of each expression.
4 Find the value of 9!. a. 6!
9!  9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1  6!
6  5  4  3  2  1 Definition of factorial
362,880
720 Simplify.

Teaching Tip Explain to stu- b. 10!

dents that in Part b of Example 5, 10!
10  9  8  7  6  5  4  3  2  1 Definition of factorial
even though Zach and Kurt only
3,628,800 Simplify.
get to ride 8 of the roller coasters,
there are still 12 to choose from Example 5 Use Factorials to Solve a Problem
when they ride the first one, 11
for the second one, 10 for the ROLLER COASTERS Zach and Kurt are going to an amusement park. They
cannot decide in which order to ride the 12 roller coasters in the park.
third one, and so on.
Roller Coasters a. How many different orders can they ride all of the roller coasters if they
5 OUTDOORS Jill and Miranda In 2000, there were ride each once?
646 roller coasters in
are going to a National Park the United States.
Use a factorial.
for their vacation. Near the 12!
12  11  10  9  8  7  6  5  4  3  2  1 Definition of factorial
campground where they are Type Number
479,001,600 Simplify.
staying, there are 8 hiking Wood 118
There are 479,001,600 ways in which Zach and Kurt can ride all 12 roller
trails. Steel 445 coasters.
Inverted 35
a. How many different ways b. If they only have time to ride 8 of the roller coasters, how many ways can
Stand Up 10
can they hike all the trails if they do this?
Suspended 11
they hike each trail only Use the Fundamental Counting Principle to find the sample space.
Wild Mouse 27
once? 40,320 s
12  11  10  9  8  7  6  5 Fundamental Counting Principle
Source: Roller Coaster Database
b. If they only have time to hike
19,958,400 Simplify.
on 5 of the trails, how many There are 19,958,400 ways for Zach and Kurt to ride 8 of the roller coasters.
ways can they do this? 6720

3 Practice/Apply Concept Check 1. OPEN ENDED Give an example of an event that has 7  6 or 42 outcomes.
Sample answer: choosing 2 books from 7 books on a shelf
2. See margin. 2. Draw a tree diagram to represent the outcomes of tossing a coin three times.
3. Explain what the notation 5! means. 5!
5 • 4 • 3 • 2 • 1
Study Notebook
Have students— Guided Practice For Exercises 4–6, suppose the spinner at the right is spun
three times.
• add the definitions/examples of
GUIDED PRACTICE KEY 4. Draw a tree diagram to show the sample space. See pp.
the vocabulary terms to their 795A–795B.
Exercises Examples 5. How many outcomes are possible? 64
Vocabulary Builder worksheets for
4–6 1–3
Chapter 14. 6. How many outcomes involve both green and blue? 18
7 4
• include any other item(s) that they 8 5
7. Find the value of 8!. 40,320
find helpful in mastering the skills
in this lesson. Application 8. SCHOOL In a science class, each student must choose a lab project from a
list of 15, write a paper on one of 6 topics, and give a presentation about one
of 8 subjects. How many different ways can students choose to do their
assignments? 720
756 Chapter 14 Probability

Answers
2. Toss 1 Toss 2 Toss 3 Outcomes 19. 7 407 20. Columbus in three games : C-C-C;
H
H HHH 0 8 408 Columbus in four games: C-C-D-C, C-D-C-C,
T HHT 4 9 409 D-C-C-C; Columbus in five games: C-C-D-D-C,
H
HTH 7 417
T H
1
C-D-C-D-C, C-D-D-C-C, D-C-C-D-C,
T HTT 8 418
9 419 D-C-D-C-C, D-D-C-C-C; D.C. in three games:
H H THH 7 507 D-D-D; D.C. in four games: C-D-D-D,
T THT 0
T 8 508 D-C-D-D, D-D-C-D; D.C. in five games:
H TTH 9 509
T
T TTT 5 C-C-D-D-D, C-D-C-D-D, C-D-D-C-D,
7 517
1 8 518 D-C-C-D-D, D-C-D-C-D, D-D-C-C-D
9 519
756 Chapter 14 Probability
★ indicates increased difficulty NAME ______________________________________________ DATE ____________ PERIOD _____

Practice and Apply Study

14-1 Guide
Study andIntervention
Guide and Intervention,
p. 831 (shown)
Counting Outcomes and p. 832
Tree Diagrams One method used for counting the number of possible outcomes of an
Draw a tree diagram to show the sample space for each event. Determine the event is to draw a tree diagram. The last column of the tree diagram shows all of the
possible outcomes. The list of all possible outcomes is called the sample space, and a
number of possible outcomes. 9 –10. See pp. 795A–795B for diagrams. specific outcome is called an event.

For See Example 1 Suppose you can set up a Example 2 A food stand offers
Exercises Examples 9. earning an A, B, or C in English, Math, and Science classes 27 stereo system with a choice of video, DVD, or ice cream cones in vanilla or
laser disk players, a choice of cassette or chocolate flavors. It also offers
9, 10, 19 1 10. buying a computer with a choice of a CD-ROM, a CD recorder, or a DVD drive, graphic equalizer audio components, and a fudge or caramel toppings, and it

Lesson 14-1
choice of single or dual speakers. Draw a tree uses sugar or cake cones. Use a
11–14 4 diagram to show the sample space. tree diagram to determine the
one of 2 monitors, and either a printer or a scanner 12 Player Audio Speaker Outcomes number of possible ice cream
15–18, 2, 3, 5 cassette
Single
Dual
VCS
VCD
cones.

20–22 video
graphic
equalizer
Single
Dual
VGS
VGD
Flavor Toppings
fudge
Cone
sugar
Outcomes
VFS
cake VFC
Single DCS vanilla

Extra Practice
Find the value of each expression. DVD
cassette

graphic
Dual
Single
DCD
DGS
caramel
sugar
cake
sugar
VCS
VCC
CFS
equalizer Dual DGD fudge
cake CFC
See page 851. 11. 4! 24 12. 7! 5040 13. 11! 39,916,800 14. 13! laser
disk
cassette

graphic
Single
Dual
Single
LCS
LCD
LGS
chocolate
caramel
sugar
cake
CCS
CCC

6,227,020,800 equalizer Dual

The tree diagram shows that there are 12 ways to

LGD
The tree diagram shows that there
are 8 possible ice cream cones.
set up the stereo system.
15. Three dice, one red, one white, and one blue are rolled. How many outcomes Exercises
are possible? 216 The spinner at the right is spun twice.
1. Draw a tree diagram to show the sample space. A B
A B C D
D C
A B C D A B C D A B C D A B C D
16. How many outfits are possible if you choose one each of 5 shirts, 3 pairs of AA AB AC AD BA BB BC BD CA CB CC CD DA DB DC DD

pants, 3 pairs of shoes, and 4 jackets? 180 2. How many outcomes are possible? 16
A pizza can be ordered with a choice of sausage, pepperoni, or mushrooms for
toppings, a choice of thin or pan for the crust, and a choice of medium or large
for the size. Toppings Crust Size Outcomes

17. TRAVEL Suppose four different airlines fly from Seattle to Denver. Those same 3. Draw a tree diagram to show the sample space.
sausage
thin
medium
large
medium
STM
STL
SPM

four airlines and two others fly from Denver to St. Louis. If there are no direct 4. How many pizzas are possible? 12
pan

thin
large
medium
SPL
PTM
large PTL
flights from Seattle to St. Louis, in how many ways can a traveler book a flight pepperoni
pan
medium
large
PPM
PPL

from Seattle to St. Louis? 24

medium MTM
thin
large MTL
mushrooms
medium MPM
pan
large MPL

NAME ______________________________________________ DATE ____________ PERIOD _____

★ COMMUNICATIONS For Exercises 18 and 19, use the following information. Skills
14-1 Practice,
Practice (Average)
p. 833 and
A new 3-digit area code is needed in a certain area to accommodate new telephone Practice, p. 834 (shown)
Counting Outcomes
numbers. Draw a tree diagram to show the sample space for each event. Determine the
number of possible outcomes.
1. dining at an Italian, Mexican, or French restaurant, for lunch, early bird (early dinner
18. If the first digit must be odd, the second digit must be a 0 or a 1, and the third special), or dinner, and with or without dessert 18
Style Time Dessert Outcomes
digit can be anything, how many area codes are possible? 100 lunch
dessert
no dessert
ILD
ILN
dessert IED
Italian early bird
19. Draw a tree diagram to show the different area codes using 4 or 5 for the first dinner
no dessert
dessert
IEN
IDD

digit, 0 or 1 for the second digit, and 7, 8, or 9 for the third digit. See margin. lunch
no dessert
dessert
IDN
MLD
no dessert MLN
dessert MED
Mexican early bird
no dessert MEN
dessert MDD
★ SOCCER For Exercises 20–22, use the following information. dinner

lunch
no dessert
dessert
MDN
FLD

The Columbus Crew are playing the D.C. United in a best three-out-of-five French early bird
no dessert
dessert
FLN
FED
no dessert FEN
championship soccer series. dinner
dessert
no dessert
FDD
FDN
There are 18 possible outcomes.
20. What are the possible outcomes of the series? See margin.
Find the value of each expression.

21. How many outcomes require exactly four games to determine the champion? 6 2. 5! 120 3. 8! 40,320 4. 10! 3,628,800 5. 12! 479,001,600
6. How many different vacation plans are possible when choosing one each of
22. How many ways can D.C. United win the championship? 10 12 destinations, 3 lengths of stay, 5 travel options, and 4 types of accommodations? 720
7. How many different ways can you arrange your work if you can choose from 7 weekly
schedules, 6 daily schedules, and one of 3 types of duties? 126
8. How many different ways can you treat a minor cut if you can choose from 3 methods of
23. CRITICAL THINKING To get to and from school, Tucker can walk, ride his bike, cleansing the cut, 5 antibiotic creams, 2 antibacterial sprays, and 6 types of bandages? 180
9. TESTING A teacher gives a quick quiz that has 4 true/false questions and 2 multiple
or get a ride with a friend. Suppose that one week he walked 60% of the time, choice questions, each of which has 5 answer choices. In how many ways can the quiz be
answered if one answer is given for each question? 400
rode his bike 20% of the time, and rode with his friend 20% of the time. How
CLASS RINGS Students at Pacific High can choose class rings in one each of
many outcomes represent this situation? Assume that he returns home the same 8 styles, 5 metals, 2 finishes, 14 stones, 7 cuts of stone, 4 tops, 3 printing styles, and
30 inscriptions.
way that he went to school. 20 10. How many different choices are there for a class ring? 2,822,400
11. If a student narrows the choice to 2 styles, 3 metals, 4 cuts of stone, and 5 inscriptions
(and has already made the remaining decisions), how many different choices for a ring
remain? 120
24. WRITING IN MATH Answer the question that was posed at the beginning of NAME ______________________________________________ DATE ____________ PERIOD _____

the lesson. See margin. Reading

14-1 Readingto
to Learn
Learn Mathematics
Mathematics, p. 835 ELL
How are possible win–loss records counted in football? Counting Outcomes
Pre-Activity How are possible win/loss football records counted?

Include the following in your answer: Read the introduction to Lesson 14-1 at the top of page 754 in your
textbook. Then complete the diagram.

• a few sentences describing how a tree diagram can be used to count the wins Game 1 Game 2 Game 3
win
Outcomes
win-win-win
win
and losses of a football team, and win
lose
win
win-win-lose
win-lose-win
lose

Lesson 14-1
lose win-lose-lose
• a demonstration of how to find the number of possible outcomes for a team win
win lose-win-win
lose lose-win-lose
that plays 4 home games. lose
lose
win lose-lose-win
lose lose-lose-lose

Reading the Lesson

[Link]/self_check_quiz Lesson 14-1 Counting Outcomes 757 Use the tree diagram above for Exercises 1–4.

1. What is the sample space?

win-win-win, win-win-lose, win-lose-win, win-lose-lose, lose-win-win,
lose-win-lose, lose-lose-win, lose-lose-lose
NAME ______________________________________________ DATE ____________ PERIOD _____
24. Sample answer: You can make a chart 2. Name two different outcomes.

Enrichment,
14-1 Enrichment p. 836 Sample answer: win-win-lose, win-lose-win

showing all possible outcomes to help 3. Three different outcomes result in a win/loss record of 2-1. What are they?

determine a football team’s record. Pascal’s Triangle

Pascal's Triangle is a pattern of numbers used
win-win-lose, win-lose-win, lose-win-win

Answers should include the following. at many levels of mathematics. It is named

for Blaise Pascal, a seventeenth-century
French mathematician who discovered several
4. Use the Fundamental Counting Principle to complete the chart.
Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Number of Outcomes
applications of the pattern. However, records

• a tree diagram or calculations to show of the triangle have been traced as far back as
twelfth-century China and Persia. In the year
1303, the Chinese mathematician Zhu –-Shìjié
Number of Choices 2
2
2  8

16 possible outcomes wrote The Precious Mirror of the Four Elements,

in which he described how the triangle could
be used to solve polynomial equations. The
Helping You Remember
5. Suppose you are training the new disc jockey for a school radio station. He has chosen
figure at the right is adapted from the original
10 selections to play from a new CD. How could you use factorials to explain to him the
Chinese manuscript. In the figure, some
circles are empty while others contain number of different ways the selections could be played?
Chinese symbols. Multiply the number of possible choices for each slot on the playlist.
There are 10 choices for the first song, nine choices for the second
song, and so on. So the selections can be played in
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1  3,628,800 ways.
At the right, a portion of Pascal’s Triangle is 1
shown using Hindu-Arabic numerals.
1 1

Lesson 14-1 Counting Outcomes 757

 Standardized 25. Evaluate 9!. A
About the Exercises… Test Practice A 362,880 B 40,320 C 36 D 8

Organization by Objective 26. A car manufacturer offers a sports car in 4 different models with 6 different
• Tree Diagrams: 9–10, 19 option packages. Each model is available in 12 different colors. How many
different possibilities are available for this car? C
• The Fundamental Counting
A 96 B 144 C 288 D 384
Principle: 15–17, 20–22
Odd/Even Assignments Maintain Your Skills
Exercises 9–16 are structured
so that students practice the Mixed Review For Exercises 27–30, use box-and-whisker plots A and B. (Lesson 13-5)
same concepts whether they
A
are assigned odd or even
problems. B

Assignment Guide 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Basic: 9–17 odd, 23–51 27. Determine the least value, greatest value, lower quartile, upper quartile, and
Average: 9–17 odd, 18, 19, median for each plot. A: 32, 88, 44, 85, 60; B: 38, 86, 48, 74, 64
23–51 28. Which set of data contains the least value? A
29. Which plot has the smaller interquartile range? B
Advanced: 10–16 even, 20–45
30. Which plot has the greater range? A
(optional: 46–51)

For Exercises 31–34, use the stem-and-leaf plot. Stem Leaf

(Lesson 13-4) 3 0 1 4 5
4 Assess 31. Find the range of the data. 79
32. What is the median? 57.5
4
5
4
6
4 8
9
33. Determine the upper quartile, lower quartile, and 6 6 8
Open-Ended Assessment
interquartile range of the data. 73.5; 39.5; 34.0 7 1 6
Modeling Have students use con- 34. Identify any outliers. none 8 0 1
struction paper to model sand- 9
wich ingedients, such as different 10 9 30
30
types of bread, meat, and vegeta- Find each sum or difference. (Lesson 12-7)
bles. Have students first calculate 2x  1 x  4 5x2  8x  6 4n 3 2n  3
35.     36.    
how many different sandwiches 3x  1 x  2 (3x  1)(x  2) 2n  6 n3 n3
3z  2 z  2 3z  1 mn 1 m2  2mn  n2  1
they could make. Then have them 37.      38.     
Study Tip 3z  6 z2  4 3z  6 mn m2  n2 m2  n2
make the sandwiches to confirm
their calculations. Deck of Cards
In this text, a standard deck Solve each equation. (Lesson 11-3)
of cards always means a 苶
39. 5兹2n2 苶
28
20 40. 兹苶
5x2  7苶
2x 兹7苶 41. 兹苶
x2
x4 7
Getting Ready for deck of 52 playing cards.
There are 4 suits—clubs 苶
兹22
Lesson 14-2 (black), diamonds (red),
hearts (red), and spades
Solve each equation by completing the square. Round to the nearest tenth if
PREREQUISITE SKILL Students necessary. (Lesson 10-3)
(black)—with 13 cards in
will learn about permutations each suit. 42. b2  6b  4
0 0.8, 5.2 43. n2  8n  5
0 8.6, 0.6
and combinations in Lesson 14-2 44. x2  11x  17
0 1.4, 12.4 45. 2p2  10p  3
0 4.7, 0.3
and use them to determine the
probability of a given event. Use Getting Ready for PREREQUISITE SKILL One card is drawn at random from a standard deck of
Exercises 46–51 to determine the Next Lesson cards. Find each probability. (To review simple probability, see Lesson 2-6.)
1 1 1
your students’ familiarity with 46. P(10)  47. P(ace)  48. P(red 5) 
13 1 13 5 26 2
simple probability. 49. P(queen of clubs)  50. P(even number)  51. P(3 or king) 
52 13 13
758 Chapter 14 Probability

Answers (page 759)

1. yes; sample answer: Front St., Main St., Second Ave., 7a. 8. Sample answer: If you follow the
State St., Elm St., First Ave., Town St. edges of a graph, you should cover
4. Yes; all nodes can be connected without retracing an edge. each edge only once.
5. No; all nodes cannot be connected without retracing an edge.
6. Yes; all nodes can be connected without retracing an edge.

758 Chapter 14 Probability

 Algebra
A Follow-Up of Lesson 14-1
Activity
A Follow-Up of Lesson 14-1
Finite Graphs Getting Started
The City Bus Company provides daily bus service Zoo
between City College and Southland Mall, City Objective Determine whether
College and downtown, downtown and Southland finite graphs are traceable.
Downtown edge
Mall, downtown and City Park, and City Park and node
the zoo. The daily routes can be represented using a Materials
finite graph like the one at the right. paper
City Park City College pencil
The graph is called a network, and each point on
the graph is called a node. The paths connecting
the nodes are called edges . A network is said to
be traceable if all of the nodes can be connected,
and each edge can be covered exactly once when
Southland Mall
Teach
the graph is used.
Alek’s • If blank transparencies are
Collect the Data
Home available, have students use
Town St.
The graph represents the streets on Alek’s newspaper route. First Ave.
the transparencies to trace the
State St.
To get his route completed as quickly as possible, Alek graphs.
would like to ride his bike down each street only once. Elm St. • It is important for students to
• Copy the graph onto your paper. compare their tracings of
• Beginning at Alek’s home, trace over his route without Second Ave. Alek’s route with those of their
Front St.
lifting your pencil. Remember to trace each edge only classmates to see that there is
once.
• Compare your graph with those of your classmates.
more than one possible route.
Main St.
• When students answer
Analyze the Data question 3, they will find that
1. Is Alek’s route traceable? If so, describe his route. See margin. there are only two possible
2. Is there more than one traceable route that begins at Alek’s house? If so, starting points on this graph;
how many? yes; 4 Alek’s house and the other end
3. Suppose it does not matter where Alek starts his route. How many traceable of State Street.
routes are possible now? 8
• Help students make the connec-
Determine whether each graph is traceable. Explain your reasoning. 4–6. See margin. tion between finding possible
4. 5. 6. routes on traceable graphs and
counting outcomes. When stu-
dents find that there are two
possible starting points, each
with four possible routes, they
7. The campus for Centerburgh High School has five buildings built around the
edge of a circular courtyard. There is a sidewalk between each pair of buildings.
can use the Fundamental
a. Draw a graph of the campus. See margin. Counting Principle to deter-
b. Is the graph traceable? yes
mine that there are eight total
routes.
c. Suppose that there is not a sidewalk between the pairs of adjacent buildings.
Is it possible to reach all five buildings without walking down any sidewalk
more than once? yes
8. Make a conjecture for a rule to determine whether a graph is traceable. See margin. Assess
Algebra Activity Finite Graphs 759
Work with students to formulate
a conjecture about when a graph
Resource Manager is traceable and when it is not.
Teaching Algebra with
Manipulatives
• p. 206 (student recording sheet)
Study Notebook
You may wish to have students
summarize this activity and what
they learned from it.

Algebra Activity Finite Graphs 759

 Lesson Permutations and
Notes Combinations
• Determine probabilities using permutations.

1 Focus • Determine probabilities using combinations.

Vocabulary can combinations be used to form committees?

5-Minute Check • permutation The United States Senate forms
Transparency 14-2 Use as • combination various committees by selecting Senate Health, Education, Labor,
a quiz or review of Lesson 14-1. senators from both political parties. and Pensions Committee
The Senate Health, Education,
Mathematical Background notes Labor, and Pensions Committee
46 Democrats
are available for this lesson on of the 106th Congress was made
up of 10 Republican senators and
p. 752C. 8 Democratic senators. How many
different ways could the committee
can combinations be have been selected? The members of
54 Republicans
used to form the committee were selected in no
committees? particular order. This is an example
of a combination.
Ask students:
• Suppose Senators Kennedy,
Jeffords, and Collins are three PERMUTATIONS An arrangement or listing in which order or placement is
of the members of the commit- important is called a permutation .
tee. Explain why the order in
which they are selected does Example 1 Tree Diagram Permutation
not matter. No matter how the EMPLOYMENT The manager of a coffee shop needs to hire two employees, one
three senators are selected, all to work at the counter and one to work at the drive-through window. Katie, Bob,
Alicia, and Jeremiah all applied for a job. How many possible ways are there for
three are still on the committee.
the manager to place the applicants?
• If there were more Democrats Study Tip Use a tree diagram to show the possible arrangements.
in the Senate than Republicans, Common Counter Drive-Through Outcomes
would the number of ways the Misconception
committee members could be When arranging two Bob KB
objects A and B using Katie (K)
selected be affected? Explain. a permutation, the
Alicia KA
No. There will still be 18 committee arrangement AB is Jeremiah KJ
members, which does not change different from the
Katie BK
arrangement BA.
the ways in which they could be Bob (B) Alicia BA
selected. Jeremiah BJ
Jeremiah AJ
Alicia (A) Katie AK
Bob AB
Katie JK
Jeremiah (J) Bob JB
Alicia JA

There are 12 different ways for the 4 applicants to hold the 2 positions.

760 Chapter 14 Probability

Resource Manager
Workbook and Reproducible Masters Transparencies
Chapter 14 Resource Masters Parent and Student Study Guide 5-Minute Check Transparency 14-2
• Study Guide and Intervention, pp. 837–838 Workbook, p. 108 Answer Key Transparencies
• Skills Practice, p. 839 School-to-Career Masters, p. 27
• Practice, p. 840 Technology
• Reading to Learn Mathematics, p. 841 Interactive Chalkboard
• Enrichment, p. 842
• Assessment, p. 875
 In Example 1, the positions are in a specific order, so each arrangement is unique.
The symbol 4P2 denotes the number of permutations when arranging 4 applicants
in 2 positions. You can also use the Fundamental Counting Principle to determine 2 Teach
the number of permutations.
ways to choose ways to choose PERMUTATIONS
first employee second employee

冦
冦


In-Class Examples Power
Point®
4P2 4 3
21 21

4  3  
21

1
21
Reading Tip Permutations of
n objects taken r at a time can
4321

 Multiply. also be written as P(n, r).
21
4!

 4  3  2  1
4!, 2  1
2! 1 Ms. Baraza asks pairs of stu-
2!
dents to go in front of her
In general, nPr is used to denote the number of permutations of n objects taken
r at a time. Spanish class to read state-
ments in Spanish, and then to
Permutation translate the statement into
• Words The number of permutations of n objects taken r at a time is the English. One student is the
quotient of n! and (n  r)!. Spanish speaker and one is
n!
• Symbols nPr

(n  r)!
the English speaker. If Ms.
Baraza has to choose between
Jeff, Kathy, Guillermo, Ana,
Example 2 Permutation and Patrice, how many dif-
Find 10P6. ferent ways can Ms. Baraza


n! pair the students? 20 ways
nPr (n  r)!
Definition of nPr

10P6

10!
 n
10, r
6 2 Find 8P4.
(10  6)!
There are 1680 permutations of
10!
10P6
4
!
Subtract. 8 objects taken 4 at a time.
1
10  9  8  7  6  5  4  3  2  1
10P6


4321
Definition of factorial Teaching Tip Point out to
1 students that the numbers 0, 3,
10P6
10  9  8  7  6  5 or 151,200 Simplify. and 8 are not possible choices.
There are 151,200 permutations of 10 objects taken 6 at a time. 3 Shaquille has a 5-digit pass
code to access his e-mail
Permutations are often used to find the probability of events occurring. account. The code is made up
Example 3 Permutation and Probability of the even digits 2, 4, 6, 8,
and 0. Each digit can be used
A word processing program requires a user to enter a 7-digit registration code
made up of the digits 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 9. Each number has to be used, and no
only once.
number can be used more than once. a. How many different pass
a. How many different registration codes are possible? codes could Shaquille have?
Study Tip Since the order of the numbers in the code is important, this situation is a 120
Permutations permutation of 7 digits taken 7 at a time.
The number of
b. What is the probability that
n!
permutations of n objects nPr
 Definition of permutation the first two digits of his
(n  r)!
taken n at a time is n!. code are both greater than 5?
7!
n Pn
n! 7P7
 
(7  7)!
n
7, r
7
1
 or 10%
7654321 10
7P7

 or 5040 Definition of factorial
1

There are 5040 possible codes with the digits 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 9.

[Link]/extra_examples Lesson 14-2 Permutations and Combinations 761

Differentiated Instruction
Visual/Spatial Have students write the digits 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 9 on
index cards. Have them rearrange the cards in different ways to help
them visualize how the permutation formula relates to the cards.
Compare their results with the calculations in Example 3.

Lesson 14-2 Permutations and Combinations 761

COMBINATIONS b. What is the probability that the first three digits of the code are even
numbers?
In-Class Example Power
Point®
Use the Fundamental Counting Principle to determine the number of ways
for the first three digits to be even.
Reading Tip Combinations of • There are 3 even digits and 4 odd digits.
n objects taken r at a time can • The number of choices for the first three digits, if they are even, is 3  2  1.
also be written C(n, r).
• The number of choices for the remaining odd digits is 4  3  2  1.
4 TEST ITEM Customers at • The number of favorable outcomes is 3  2  1  4  3  2  1 or 144. There are
Tony’s Pizzeria can choose 4 144 ways for this event to occur out of the 5040 possible permutations.
out of 12 toppings for each 144 ← number of favorable outcomes
P(first 3 digits even)
  
← number of possible outcomes
5040
pizza for no extra charge. 1
How many different combi-
 Simplify.
35
nations of pizza toppings can 1
The probability that the first three digits of the code are even is  or about 3%.
35
be chosen? A
A 495
B 792 COMBINATIONS An arrangement or listing in which order is not important
C 11,880 is called a combination. For example, if you are choosing 2 salad ingredients from
a list of 10, the order in which you choose the ingredients does not matter.
D 95,040

Combination
Teaching Tip After students learn
how to calculate combinations and • Words The number of combinations of n objects taken r at a time is the
quotient of n! and (n  r)!r!.
have worked Example 4, discuss the
n!
difference between combinations • Symbols nCr

(n  r)!r!
and permutations. In Example 4, the
order in which the students are
chosen does not matter because the
positions for which they are being Standardized Example 4 Combination
chosen are the same. They are all Test Practice Multiple-Choice Test Item
four going to be members of the stu-
dent council, with the same duties. The students of Mr. DeLuca’s homeroom had to choose 4 out of the 7 people
who were nominated to serve on the Student Council. How many different
However, if the homeroom was
groups of students could be selected?
choosing 4 out of 7 students to be
A 840 B 210
president, vice president, secretary,
and treasurer of the student council, C 35 D 24
then the order in which they are
chosen does matter. Read the Test Item
The order in which the students are chosen does not matter, so this situation
represents a combination of 7 people taken 4 at a time.
Test-Taking Tip Solve the Test Item
Read each question n!
carefully to determine nCr
 Definition of combination
(n  r)!r!
whether the situation
7!
involves a permutation 7C4
 n
7, r
4
or a combination. Often, (7  4)!4!
1
the answer choices include 7654321


3214321
Definition of factorial
examples of both.
1
765

 or 35 Simplify.
321
There are 35 different groups of students that could be selected. Choice C is correct.

762 Chapter 14 Probability

Standardized Example 4 Tell students to pay close attention

to the order in which the information is given in
Test Practice word problems. Because 4 is listed before 7 in
the problem, students might mistakenly think
that n
4 and r
7. Choice A is the correct number of permutations for
7 P4. However this problem involves combinations.

762 Chapter 14 Probability

 Combinations and the products of combinations can be used to determine
probabilities. In-Class Example Power
Point®

Teaching Tip Multi-part prob-

Example 5 Use Combinations lems such as Example 5 often
contain more information than is
SCHOOL A science teacher at Sunnydale High School needs to choose necessary to solve the first part
12 students out of 16 to serve as peer tutors. A group of 7 seniors, 5 juniors, of the problem. For example, to
and 4 sophomores have volunteered to be tutors.
solve part a, it is not necessary
a. How many different ways can the teacher choose 12 students? to know that the group of
The order in which the students are chosen does not matter, so we must students includes 7 seniors,
find the number of combinations of 16 students taken 12 at a time. 5 juniors, and 4 sophomores.


n! The only necessary information
nCr (n  r)!r!
Definition of combination
is that 12 students are to be
16!
16C12
 
(16  12)!12!
n
16, r
12 chosen out of a group of 16.
16!

 16  12
4 5 MONEY Diane has a bag full
4!12! 1
16  15  14  13  12! of coins. There are 10 pennies,

 4!  12!
Divide by the GCF, 12!.
6 nickels, 4 dimes, and
1
43,680

 or 1820 Simplify. 2 quarters in the bag.
24
a. How many different ways can
There are 1820 ways to choose 12 students out of 16.
Diane pull four coins out of
b. If the students are chosen randomly, what is the probability that 4 seniors,
the bag? There are 7315 ways
4 juniors, and 4 sophomores will be selected? to pull 4 coins out of a bag of 22.
There are three questions to consider. b. What is the probability that
• How many ways can 4 seniors be chosen from 7? she will pull two pennies and
• How many ways can 4 juniors be chosen from 5? two nickels out of the bag?
• How many ways can 4 sophomores be chosen from 4?
The probability that Diane will
select two pennies and two
Using the Fundamental Counting Principle, the answer can be determined 675
nickels is  , or about 9%.
with the product of the three combinations. 7315
ways to choose ways to choose ways to choose
4 seniors 4 juniors 4 sophomores
out of 7 out of 5 out of 4
冦
冦
冦

Study Tip
(7C4)  (5C4)  (4C4) Concept Check
7!
(7C4)(5C4)(4C4)
    
5! 4!
Definition of combination
Combinations Explain why you
Combinations (7  4)!4! (5  4)!4! (4  4)!4! would expect the number of com-
The number of 7! 5! 4!
combinations of n objects
     Simplify. binations of n items taken r at a
3!4! 1!4! 0!4!
taken n at a time is 1.
765 5 time to be less than the number
nCn
1
    Divide by the GCF, 4!.
3! 1 of permutations of n items taken

175 Simplify. r at a time. Sample answer: The
There are 175 ways to choose this particular combination out of 1820 possible number of combinations is less
combinations.
because order does not matter. For
P(4 seniors, 4 juniors, 4 sophomores)

175 ← number of favorable outcomes
  example, in a permutation, AB is
1820 ← number of possible outcomes
different from BA because order
5

 Simplify. matters. In a combination, AB and BA
52
are the same.
The probability that the science teacher will randomly select 4 seniors, 4 juniors,
5
and 4 sophomores is  or about 10%.
52

[Link]/extra_examples Lesson 14-2 Permutations and Combinations 763

The details in Example 5 might be confusing for

New some students. Consider representing the prob-
lem information on an overhead transparency.
Assign three different colors to represent
seniors, juniors, and sophomores. Then draw
groups of colored dots to represent the 16 students. In part b of
Example 5, show students how to focus on one group of
students at a time by examining only one color of dot.

Lesson 14-2 Permutations and Combinations 763

 3 Practice/Apply Concept Check 1. OPEN ENDED Describe the difference between a permutation and a
combination. Then give an example of each.
1–3. See margin.
2. Demonstrate and explain why nCr
1 whenever n
r. What does nPr always
Study Notebook equal when n
r?

Have students— 3. FIND THE ERROR Eric and Alisa are taking a trip to Washington, D.C. Their
tour bus stops at the Lincoln Memorial, the Jefferson Memorial, the Washington
• add the definitions/examples of Monument, the White House, the Capitol Building, the Supreme Court, and the
the vocabulary terms to their Pentagon. Both are finding the number of ways they can choose to visit 5 of
these 7 sites.
Vocabulary Builder worksheets for
Chapter 14. Eric Alisa
• include an example of how to find 7! 7!
7C5 = 2! or 2520 7C5 =  or 21
2! 5!
the number of permutations and
number of combinations of n Who is correct? Explain your reasoning.
items taken r at a time.
Guided Practice Determine whether each situation involves a permutation or combination. Explain
• include any other item(s) that they your reasoning. 4. Combination; order is not important.
find helpful in mastering the skills GUIDED PRACTICE KEY 4. choosing 6 books from a selection of 12 for summer reading
in this lesson. Exercises Examples 5. choosing digits for a personal identification number
4, 5, 10, 13 1, 4
Permutation; order is important.
6–9, 11, 12 2, 3, 5 Evaluate each expression.
6. 8P5 6720 7. 7C5 21 8. (10P5)(3P2) 9. (6C2)(4C3) 60
181,440
FIND THE ERROR For Exercises 10–12, use the following information.
The digits 0 through 9 are written on index cards. Three of the cards are randomly
First, students selected to form a 3-digit code.
must determine 10. Permutation; the 10. Does this situation represent a permutation or a combination? Explain.
whether Eric and Alisa need to order of the digits is 11. How many different codes are possible? 720
find the number of permutations important. 1
12. What is the probability that all 3 digits will be odd? 
or combinations. Since the order 12
in which the bus visits the sites Standardized 13. A diner offers a choice of two side items
does not matter, they need to find Test Practice from the list with each entrée. How many Side Items
the number of combinations. ways can two items be selected? B French fries mixed vegetables
baked potato rice pilaf
Next, students must examine A 15 B 28 cole slaw baked beans
small salad applesauce
whether Eric or Alisa used the C 30 D 56
correct procedure to find the
number of combinations.

Answers
Practice and Apply
1. Sample answer: Order is
important in a permutation but not Determine whether each situation involves a permutation or combination. Explain
your reasoning.
in a combination.
14. team captains for the soccer team Combination; order is not important.
Permutation: the finishing order of 15. three mannequins in a display window Permutation; order is important.
a race
16. a hand of 10 cards from a selection of 52 Combination; order is not important.
Combination: toppings on a pizza 17. the batting order of the New York Yankees Permutation; order is important.
n! n!
2. nCn     or 1, 764 Chapter 14 Probability
(n  n)!n! 0!n!
since 0!  1.
n! n!
nPn     or n!,
(n  n)! 0!
since 0!  1.
3. Alisa; both are correct in that the
situation is a combination, but
Alisa’s method correctly computes
the combination. Eric’s
calculations find the number of
permutations.

764 Chapter 14 Probability

 18. first place and runner-up winners for the table tennis tournament
For
Exercises
See
Examples
19. a selection of 5 DVDs from a group of eight Combination; order is not important. About the Exercises…
20. selection of 2 candy bars from six equally-sized bars
14–21, 34 1, 4 Organization by Objective
36, 40 21. the selection of 2 trombones, 3 clarinets, and 2 trumpets for a jazz combo
• Permutations: 14–21, 22–23,
22–33, 35, 2, 3, 5 Combination; order is not important.
37–39, 28–31
41–49 Evaluate each expression.
• Combinations: 14–21, 24–27,
Extra Practice 22. 12P3 1320 23. 4P1 4 24. 6C6 1
32
See page 851. 25. 7C3 35 26. 15C3 455 27. 20C8125,970
28. 2730 29. 524,160 30. (7P7)(7P1) 35,280 Odd/Even Assignments
18. Permutation; order 15P3 16P5
is important. 31. (20P2)(16P4) 16,598,400 32. (3C2)(7C4) 105 33. (8C5)(5P5) 6720 Exercises 14–33 are structured
20. Combination; so that students practice the
order is not important. SOFTBALL For Exercises 34 and 35, use the following information. same concepts whether they
The manager of a softball team needs to prepare a batting lineup using her nine are assigned odd or even
starting players.
problems.
34. Does this situation involve a permutation or a combination? permutation
35. How many different lineups can she make? 362,880
Assignment Guide
SCHOOL For Exercises 36–39, use the following information. Basic: 15–33 odd, 34–39, 50–51,
Mrs. Moyer’s class has to choose 4 out of 12 people to serve on an activity 55–77
committee.
36. Does the selection of the students involve a permutation or a combination?
Average: 15–33 odd, 36–44,
Explain. Combination; order does not matter. 50, 51, 55–77
37. How many different groups of students could be selected? 495 Advanced: 14–32 even, 43–71
38. Suppose the students are selected for the positions of chairperson, activities (optional: 72–77)
planner, activity leader, and treasurer. How many different groups of students
All: Practice Quiz 1 (1–5)
Softball could be selected? 11,880
The game of softball was 39. What is the probability that any one of the students is chosen to be the
developed in 1888 as an chairperson? 1
indoor sport for practicing 12
baseball during the winter GAMES For Exercises 40–42, use the following information.
months. In your turn of a certain game, you roll five different-colored dice.
Source: [Link]
40. Do the outcomes of rolling the five dice represent a permutation or a
combination? Explain. Permutation; order matters.
41. How many outcomes are possible? 7776
1
42. What is the probability that all five dice show the same number on one roll? 
1296
BUSINESS For Exercises 43 and 44, use the following information.
There are six positions available in the research department of a software company.
Of the applicants, 15 are men and 10 are women.
43. In how many ways could 4 men and 2 women be chosen if each were equally
qualified? 61,425
44. What is the probability that five women are selected if the positions are
randomly filled? 27
1265
TRACK For Exercises 45 and 46, use the following information.
Central High School is competing against West High School at a track meet. Each
team entered 4 girls to run the 1600-meter event. The top three finishers are awarded
medals.
45. How many different ways can the runners place first, second, and third? 336
46. If all eight runners have an equal chance of placing, what is the probability that
the first and second place finishers are from West and the third place finisher is
from Central? 1 ⬇ 14%
7
[Link]/self_check_quiz Lesson 14-2 Permutations and Combinations 765

Lesson 14-2 Permutations and Combinations 765

 NAME ______________________________________________ DATE ____________ PERIOD _____

Study Guide andIntervention

Intervention, DINING For Exercises 47–49, use the following information.
14-2 Study Guide and
p. 837 (shown) and p. 838 For lunch in the school cafeteria, you can select one item from each category to get
Permutations and Combinations
Permutations An arrangement or listing in which order or placement is important is
the daily combo.
called a permutation. For example the arrangement AB of choices A and B is different
from the arrangement BA of these same two choices.

n!
Permutations n Pr

(n  r)!

Entree
Example 1 Find 6 P2. Side Dish Beverage
Burger e
Lemonad
n!
n Pr

(n  r)!
Definition of n Pr
Sandwich Soup
6 P2

6!
n
6, r
2 Salad Milk
(6  2)! Taco


6!
4!
Simplify.
Pizza French Fries Soft Drink
654321

 Definition of factorial
4321

Lesson 14-2

6  5 or 30 Simplify.

There are 30 permutations of 6 objects taken 2 at a time.

Example 2 A specific program requires the user to enter a 5-digit password.

The digits cannot repeat and can be any five of the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, and 9.
a. How many different
passwords are possible?
b. What is the probability that the first two digits
are odd numbers with the other digits any of the
47. Find the number of possible meal combinations. 36
n! remaining numbers?
n Pr

(n  r)! number of favorable outcomes
P(first two digits odd)

48. If a side dish is chosen at random, what is the probability that a student will
choose soup? 1 or about 33%
7! number of possible outcomes
7 P5

(7  5)! Since there are 4 odd digits, the number of choices for


7654321
21
the first digit is 4, and the number of choices for the
second digit is 3. Then there are 5 choices left for the
3

7  6  5  4  3 or 2520 third digit, 4 for the fourth, and 3 for the fifth, so the 49. What is the probability that a student will randomly choose a sandwich and
number of favorable outcomes is 4  3  5  4  3, or 720.
There are 2520 ways to soup? 1
create a password.
720
The probability is 
28.6%.
2520 or about 8%
12
Exercises
Evaluate of each expression. CRITICAL THINKING For Exercises 50 and 51, use the following information.
1. 7 P4 840 2. 12 P7 3,991,680 3. ( 9 P9 )(16 P2) 87,091,200 Larisa is trying to solve a word puzzle. She needs to arrange the letters H, P, S, T, A,
4. A club with ten members wants to choose a president, vice-president, secretary, and
treasurer. Six of the members are women, and four are men.
E, and O into a two-word arrangement.
a. How many different sets of officers are possible? 5040
b. What is the probability that all officers will be women. 7.1%
50. How many different arrangements of the letters can she make? 30,240
NAME ______________________________________________ DATE ____________ PERIOD _____ 51. Assuming that each arrangement has an equal chance of occurring, what is the
Skills
14-2 Practice,
Practice (Average)
p. 839 and probability that she will form the words tap shoe on her first try? 1
Practice, p. and
Permutations 840 (shown)
Combinations 30,240
Determine whether each situation involves a permutation or combination. Explain You can use
your reasoning. Sample explanations are given. SWIMMING For Exercises 52–54, use the following information.
1. choosing two dogs from a litter of two males and three females Combination; The permutations and
order is not important in the choice of the two dogs. A swimming coach plans to pick four swimmers out of a group of 6 to form the
combinations to
2. a simple melody formed by playing the notes on 8 different piano keys Permutation;
400-meter freestyle relay team.
The sound of the melody depends on the order in which the notes are analyze data on
played.
U.S. schools. Visit 52. How many different teams can he form? 15
3. a selection of nine muffins from a shelf of twenty-three Combination; The order
does not matter in the selection of the muffins. [Link]/ 53. The coach must decide in which order the four swimmers should swim. He
4. the selection of a four-letter acronym (word formed from the initial letters of other webquest to continue timed the swimmers in each possible order and chose the best time. How many
words) in which two of the letters cannot be C or P Permutation; The letters of the
acronym must be arranged in a certain order. work on your relays did the four swimmers have to swim so that the coach could collect all of
5. choosing an alphanumeric password to access a website Permutation; The choice
of letters and numbers must be in an exact order for the password to
WebQuest project. the data necessary? 24
work.
54. If Tomás is chosen to be on the team, what is the probability that he will swim in
Evaluate each expression.

6. 11P3 990 7. 6 P3 120 8. 15 P3 2730

the third leg? 1  25%
9. 10C9 10 10. 12C9 220 11. 7C3 35
4
12. 7C4 35 13. 12C4 495 14. 13 P3 1716 55. WRITING IN MATH Answer the question that was posed at the beginning of
15. (8C4)(8C5) 3920 16. (17 C2)(8C6) 3808 17. (16C15)(16C1) 256
the lesson. See margin.
18. (8 P3)(8 P2) 18,816 19. (5 P4)(6 P5) 86,400 20. (13 P1)(15 P1) 195

21. (10C3)(10 P3) 86,400 22. (15 P4)(4C3) 131,040 23. (14C7)(15 P3) 9,369,360
How can combinations be used to form committees?
24. SPORT In how many orders can the top five finishers in a race finish? 120 Include the following in your answer:
JUDICIAL PROCEDURE The court system in a community needs to assign 3 out of
8 judges to a docket of criminal cases. Five of the judges are male and three are • a few sentences explaining why forming a Senate committee is a
female.

25. Does the selection of judges involve a permutation or a combination? combination

combination, and
26. In how many ways could three judges be chosen? 56 • an explanation of how to find the number of ways to select the committee
27. If the judges are chosen randomly, what is the probability that all 3 judges are male?
5
 , or about 18%
if committee positions are based upon seniority.
28

NAME ______________________________________________ DATE ____________ PERIOD _____

Reading
14-2 Readingto
to Learn
Learn Mathematics
Mathematics, p. 841 ELL Standardized 56. There are 12 songs on a CD. If 10 songs are played randomly and each song is
Permutations and Combinations
Pre-Activity How can combinations be used to form committees? Test Practice played once, how many arrangements are there? B
Read the introduction to Lesson 14-2 at the top of page 760 in your
textbook. A 479,001,600 B 239,500,800 C 66 D 1
What is meant by the term combination?
A group of objects not arranged in any particular order
57. Julie remembered that the 4 digits of her locker combination were 4, 9, 15, and
Reading the Lesson 22, but not their order. What is the maximum number of attempts Julie has to
Complete the chart. make to find the correct combination? C
Permutation or
Situation Explain Your Choice
Combination?
A 4 B 16 C 24 D 256
1. 3 of 7 students are chosen combination See students’ work.
to go to a job fair

766 Chapter 14 Probability

2. arrangement of student permutation See students’ work.
work for the school art show

NAME ______________________________________________ DATE ____________ PERIOD _____

3. 4-digit student I.D. numbers permutation See students’ work.

Enrichment,
14-2 Enrichment p. 842
Latin Squares
4. choosing 4 out of combination See students’ work.
12 possible pizza toppings In designing a statistical experiment, it is important to try to
randomize the variables. For example, suppose 4 different motor oils
are being compared to see which give the best gasoline mileage. An
experimenter might then choose 4 different drivers and four different
cars. To test-drive all the possible combinations, the experimenter
would need 64 test-drives.
Helping You Remember
To reduce the number of test drives, a statistician might use an D1 D2 D3 D4
5. To help you remember how the terms permutation and combination are different, think arrangement called a Latin Square.
of everyday words that start with the letters P and C and that illustrate the meaning of C1 A B C D
each word. Explain how the words illustrate the two terms. For this example, the four motor oils are labeled A, B, C, and D
and are arranged as shown. Each oil must appear exactly one C2 B A D C
Sample answer: P for phone number, since the order of the digits in a time in each row and column of the square.
phone number is important; C for club, since who is in a club is the C3 C D A B
important thing, not the order in which the names of the club members
The drivers are labeled D1, D2, D3, and D4; the cars are labeled
are listed C1, C2, C3, and C4.
C4 D C B A

Now, the number of test-drives is just 16, one for each cell of the
Latin Square.

766 Chapter 14 Probability

Maintain Your Skills
Mixed Review 58. The Sanchez family acts as a host family for a foreign exchange student during
4 Assess
each school year. It is equally likely that they will host a girl or a boy. How many
different ways can they host boys and girls over the next four years? (Lesson 14-1) Open Ended Assessment
16 Speaking Divide the class into
STATISTICS For Exercises
59–62, use the table at the right.
Highest Paying Occupations two groups. Have one group
in America explain what a permutation is
(Lesson 13-5)
Median
59. Make a box-and-whisker plot Occupation
Salary
while the other group explains
of the data. See margin. Physician $148,000 what a combination is. The
60. What is the range of the Dentist $93,000 groups should use their own
Lobbyist $91,300
data? $92,200 Management Consultant $61,900 members as examples. For
61. Identify the lower and upper Lawyer $60,500 instance, the group explaining
quartiles. $56,700, $91,300 Electrical Engineer $59,100
School Principal $57,300 permutations might show why
62. Name any outliers. $148,000 Aeronautical Engineer $56,700 order does matter when assign-
Airline Pilot $56,500
Civil Engineer $55,800 ing 4 different tasks to volun-
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics teers from a group. The group
explaining combinations can
Online Research Data Update For current data on the highest-paying
explain why order does not
occupations, visit: [Link]/data_update
matter when choosing 4 out of 6
Simplify each expression. (Lesson 12-2) group members to help carry a
x3 1 x2  49 x7 n2  n  20 n  5 heavy box.
63.    64.    65.   
x2  6x  9 x  3 x2  2x  35 x  5 n2  9n  20 n  5

Find the distance between each pair of points whose coordinates are given.
Express answers in simplest radical form and as decimal approximations rounded Getting Ready for
to the nearest hundredth if necessary. (Lesson 11-5) Lesson 14-3
66. (12, 20), (16, 34) 2兹53苶,67. (18, 7), (2, 15) 4兹29苶, 68. (2, 5), 12, 3 212, 2.5 BASIC SKILL Students will learn
14.56 21.54
Solve each equation by using the Quadratic Formula. Approximate irrational about finding the probability of
roots to the nearest hundredth. (Lesson 10-4) compound events in Lesson 14-3.
5
69. m2  4m  2
0 70. 2s2  s  15
0 , 3 71. 2n2  n
4 In calculating these probabilities,
2
0.59, 3.41 1.69, 1.19 students will be required to
Getting Ready for PREREQUISITE SKILL Find each sum or difference. multiply and add probabilities,
the Next Lesson (To review fractions, see pages 798 and 799.)
which are usually expressed as
72.    3 73.    2
5 7
74.      3
8 4 7 5 6 2
52 52 13 32 8 32 15 15 15 5 fractions. Use Exercises 72–77 to
3 1 determine your students’
76.      5 77.      69
15 11 2 15 1 16 3 1
75.      
24 24 4 3 3 36 4 6 25 10 4 100 familiarity with adding and
subracting fractions.
P ractice Quiz 1 Lessons 14-1 and 14-2
Find the number of outcomes for each event. (Lesson 14-1) Assessment Options
1. A die is rolled and two coins are tossed. 24 Practice Quiz 1 The quiz
2. A certain model of mountain bike comes in 5 sizes, 4 colors, with regular or provides students with a brief
off-road tires, and with a choice of 1 of 5 accessories. 200 review of the concepts and skills
Find each value. (Lesson 14-2)
in Lessons 14-1 and 14-2. Lesson
numbers are given to the right of
3. 13C8 1287 4. 9P6 60,480
the exercises or instruction lines
5. A flower bouquet has 5 carnations, 6 roses, and 3 lilies. If four flowers are selected so students can review concepts
at random, what is the probability of selecting two roses and two lilies? (Lesson 14-2) 45 not yet mastered.
1001
Quiz (Lessons 14-1 and 14-2) is
Lesson 14-2 Permutations and Combinations 767
available on p. 875 of the Chapter
14 Resource Masters.
Answers
55. Sample answer: Combinations can be used 59.
to find how many different ways a committee
can be formed by various members. Answers
50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120130140150
should include the following.
• Order of selection is not important.
• Order is important due to seniority, so you
need to find the number of permutations.

Lesson 14-2 Permutations and Combinations 767

Reading
Mathematics

Getting Started Mathematical Words and

Before you discuss the meanings
Related Words
of the mathematical words in this You may have noticed that many words used in mathematics contain roots of other
activity, ask students for examples words and are closely related to other English words. You can use the more familiar
of words that are easy to under- meanings of these related words to better understand mathematical meanings.
stand because of their roots. The table shows two mathematical terms along with related words and their
Examples include premature and meanings as well as additional notes.
postgraduate. Ask students to
explain these words based on the Mathematical Term Related Words and Notes
meanings of their roots. and Meaning Meanings
combination combine (n): a Combine originally
A combination is a harvesting machine meant to put just
Teach selection of distinct
objects from a group
that performs many
functions
two things together;
it now means to put
of objects, where the any number of
Connecting to Vocabulary Ask order in which they binary: a base-two things together.
students for other definitions of were selected does numerical system
not matter.
the words combine, binary, muta-
tion, and commute. Use students’ permutation mutation: a change
answers to explain the mathe- A permutation is in genes or other
matical meanings of combination an arrangement characteristics
of distinct objects
and permutation. from a group of commute: to change
objects, where the places; for example,
Students who are not from arrangement is in 25
52
farming communities may not be a certain order.
familiar with the definition of
combine that is given. Have
students define in their own Notice how the meanings of the related words can give an insight to the meanings
of the mathematical terms.
words the verb combine.
If students answer no for
Exercise 1, invite volunteers to
suggest mnemonics to help Reading to Learn 1–4. See pp. 795A– 795B.
remember the mathematical 1. Do the related words of combination and permutation help you to remember
meanings of the words their mathematical meanings? Explain.
combination and permutation. 2. What is a similarity and a difference between the mathematical meanings of
combination and permutation?

Assess 3. RESEARCH Use the Internet or other reference to find the mathematical
meaning of the word factorial and meanings of at least two related words.
How are these meanings connected?
4. RESEARCH Use the Internet or other reference to find the meanings of
Study Notebook the word probability and its Latin origins probus and probare. Compare the
three.
Ask students to suggest what they 768 Chapter 14 Probability
have learned about mathematical
words and their related words.

ELL English Language

Learners may benefit from
writing key concepts from this
activity in their Study Notebooks
in their native language and then
in English.
768 Chapter 14 Probability
 Probability of Lesson
Compound Events Notes

• Find the probability of two independent events or dependent events.

• Find the probability of two mutually exclusive or inclusive events.
1 Focus
Vocabulary are probabilities used Weekend Forecast:
Rain Likely
• simple event by meteorologists? 5-Minute Check
• compound event
The weather forecast for the weekend
Transparency 14-3 Use as
• independent events Saturday a quiz or review of Lesson 14-2.
calls for rain. By using the probabilities 40%
• dependent events for both days, we can find other
• complements probabilities for the weekend. What Mathematical Background notes
• mutually exclusive is the probability that it will rain on are available for this lesson on
Sunday
• inclusive both days? only on Saturday? Saturday
or Sunday?
80% p. 752D.

are probabilities used

by meteorologists?
INDEPENDENT AND DEPENDENT EVENTS A single event, like rain on Ask students:
Saturday, is called a simple event. Suppose you wanted to determine the probability • Suppose it does not rain on
that it will rain both Saturday and Sunday. This is an example of a compound event ,
which is made up of two or more simple events. The weather on Saturday does not Saturday. Does this affect
affect the weather on Sunday. These two events are called independent events whether it will rain on
because the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of the other. Sunday? No
• Think about the word indepen-
Probability of Independent Events dent. What does independent
• Words If two events, A and B, are • Model mean? free or unrelated
independent, then the • Could the word independent
probability of both events
occurring is the product of be used to describe the
the probability of A and weather on Saturday as related
the probability of B. A B
to the weather on Sunday?
• Symbols P(A and B)
P(A)  P(B) Explain. Yes. Because the
P (A and B) weather on Saturday does not
affect the weather on Sunday,
these events are independent of
each other.
• Meteorology If the weather on
Example 1 Independent Events
one day does not affect the
Refer to the application above. Find the probability that it will rain on Saturday weather on the next day, is there
and Sunday.
anything that does affect the
P(A and B)
P(A)  P(B) Definition of independent events
weather on any given day of
P(Saturday and Sunday)
P(Saturday)  P (Sunday) the year? Explain. The season



0.4  0.8 40%
0.4 and 80%
0.8 affects the weather. For example,

0.32 Multiply. the probability of having snow in
July in most parts of the country is
The probability that it will rain on Saturday and Sunday is 32%.
very low because the weather in
Lesson 14-3 Probability of Compound Events 769 July is too warm for snow.

Resource Manager
Workbook and Reproducible Masters Transparencies
Chapter 14 Resource Masters Parent and Student Study Guide 5-Minute Check Transparency 14-3
• Study Guide and Intervention, pp. 843–844 Workbook, p. 109 Real-World Transparency 14
• Skills Practice, p. 845 Prerequisite Skills Workbook, Answer Key Transparencies
• Practice, p. 846 pp. 47–48, 55–56, 67–70, 99–100
• Reading to Learn Mathematics, p. 847 Science and Mathematics Lab Manual, Technology
• Enrichment, p. 848 pp. 109–114 AlgePASS: Tutorial Plus, Lesson 35
• Assessment, pp. 875, 877 Interactive Chalkboard

Lesson x-x Lesson Title 769

 When the outcome of one event affects the outcome of another event, the events

2 Teach are dependent events. For example, drawing a card from a deck, not returning it,
then drawing a second card are dependent events because the drawing of the
second card is dependent on the drawing of the first card.
INDEPENDENT AND
DEPENDENT EVENTS Probability of Dependent Events
• Words If two events, A and B, are dependent, then the probability of both
In-Class Examples Power
Point®
events occurring is the product of the probability of A and the
probability of B after A occurs.

1 TRAVEL Roberta is flying • Symbols P(A and B)
P(A)  P(B following A)

from Birmingham to Chicago
to visit her grandmother. She Example 2 Dependent Events
has to fly from Birmingham A bag contains 8 red marbles, 12 blue marbles, 9 yellow marbles, and 11 green
to Houston on the first leg of marbles. Three marbles are randomly drawn from the bag and not replaced.
her trip. In Houston she Find each probability if the marbles are drawn in the order indicated.
changes planes and heads on a. P(red, blue, green)
to Chicago. The airline reports The selection of the first marble affects the selection of the next marble since
that the flight from Birming- there is one less marble from which to choose. So, the events are dependent.
ham to Houston has a 90% First marble:
8 1
P(red)
 or  ← number of red marbles
 
40 5 ← total number of marbles
on time record, and the flight
12 4 ← number of blue marbles
from Houston to Chicago has Second marble: P(blue)
 or   
← number of marbles remaining
39 13
a 50% on time record. What 11 ← number of green marbles
Third marble: P(green)
  
← number of marbles remaining
is the probability that both 38
flights will be on time? 45% P(red, blue, green)
P(red)  P(blue)  P(green)




1 4 11
2 At the school carnival, winners

5
 
13
 
38
Substitution
in the ring-toss game are 44 22

 or  Multiply.
randomly given a prize from a 2470 1235
bag that contains 4 sunglasses, The probability of drawing red, blue, and green marbles is .
22
1235
6 hairbrushes, and 5 key
Study Tip b. P(blue, yellow, yellow)
chains. Three prizes are
randomly drawn from the Notice that after selecting a yellow marble, not only is there one fewer marble
More Than Two from which to choose, there is also one fewer yellow marble.
bag and not replaced. Find Dependent Events
each probability. Notice that the formula P(blue, yellow, yellow)
P(blue)  P(yellow)  P(yellow)




for the probability of
12 9 8
a. P(sunglasses, hairbrush, dependent events can
 
40

39
 
38
Substitution
be applied to more than
4
key chain) 
91
two events. 864

 or 
18
Multiply.
59,280 1235
b. P(hairbrush, hairbrush, The probability of drawing a blue and then two yellow marbles is .
18
5 1235
key chain) 
91 c. P(red, yellow, not green)
c. P(sunglasses, hairbrush, Since the marble that is not green is selected after the first two marbles, there
are 29  2 or 27 marbles that are not green.
32
not key chain) 
455 P(red, yellow, not green)
P(red)  P(yellow)  P(not green)




8 9 27

    
40 39 38
1944 81

  or 
59,280 2470
81
The probability of drawing a red, a yellow, and not a green marble is .
2470

770 Chapter 14 Probability

Differentiated Instruction
Naturalist Bring a packet of raw sunflower seeds or other fast-sprouting
seeds to class. Ensure you have slightly more seeds than you do students.
Explain that each student will take a seed and plant it either on school
grounds or in a small plant pot. As students take a seed from the packet,
lead them to understand that the number of seeds from which they can
choose is a dependent event for all but the first student.

770 Chapter 14 Probability

 In part c of Example 2, the events for drawing a marble that is green and
for drawing a marble that is not green are called complements. Consider the
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
probabilities for drawing the third marble. AND INCLUSIVE EVENTS
Study Tip
Reading Math P(green) P(not green) sum of probabilities In-Class Example Power
Point®
A complement is one of
two parts that make up
a whole.
11 27
  
1 Teaching Tip Explain to stu-
38 38 dents that there are four suits or
This is always true for any two complementary events. types of cards in a standard card
deck: spades, hearts, diamonds,
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE AND INCLUSIVE EVENTS Events that cannot and clubs. There are 13 cards in
occur at the same time are called mutually exclusive. Suppose you want to find the each suit, for a total of 52 cards.
probability of rolling a 2 or a 4 on a die. Since a die cannot show both a 2 and a 4 at The cards in each suit are; ace,
the same time, the events are mutually exclusive. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, jack,
queen, and king. If possible,
Mutually Exclusive Events bring a deck of cards to school
for students to examine.
• Words If two events, A and B, are • Model
mutually exclusive, then
the probability that either 3 Alfred is going to the Lake-
A or B occurs is the sum shore Animal Shelter to pick
of their probabilities.
a new pet. Today, the shelter
• Symbols P(A or B)
P(A)  P(B) A B
has 8 dogs, 7 cats, and
5 rabbits available for
P (A or B) adoption. If Alfred randomly
picks an animal to adopt,
what is the probability that
the animal would be a cat or
Example 3 Mutually Exclusive Events a dog? The probability of ran-
During a magic trick, a magician randomly draws one card from a standard deck 3
of cards. What is the probability that the card drawn is a heart or a diamond? domly picking a cat or a dog is  .
4
Since a card cannot be both a heart and a diamond, the events are mutually
exclusive.
13 1 ← number of hearts
P(heart)
 or   
← total number of cards
52 4
13 1
P(diamond)
 or  ← number of diamonds
 
52 4 ← total number of cards

P(heart or diamond)
P(heart)  P(diamond) Definition of mutually exclusive events




1 1

   Substitution
4 4
2 1

 or  Add.
4 2
1
The probability of drawing a heart or a diamond is .
2

Suppose you wanted to find the

probability of randomly selecting an ace Aces Spades
or a spade from a standard deck of cards.
Since it is possible to draw a card that is A
2 3 4
both an ace and a spade, these events are 5 6 7
A A
not mutually exclusive. They are called 8 9 10
A
inclusive events. J Q K

[Link]/extra_examples Lesson 14-3 Probability of Compound Events 771

Lesson 14-3 Probability of Compound Events 771

 If the formula for the probability of mutually exclusive events is used, the
In-Class Example Power
Point® probability of drawing an ace of spades is counted twice, once for an ace and once
for a spade. To correct this, you must subtract the probability of drawing the ace of
4 A dog has just given birth to spades from the sum of the individual probabilities.
a litter of 9 puppies. There
are 3 brown females, 2 brown Probability of Inclusive Events
males, 1 mixed-color female,
• Words If two events, A and B, • Model
and 3 mixed-color males. If are inclusive, then the
you choose a puppy at ran- probability that either
dom from the litter, what is the A or B occurs is the sum
of their probabilities
probability that the puppy decreased by the A B
will be male or mixed-color? probability of both
occurring.
The probability of a puppy picked
P (A or B)
at random being male or mixed-
2
color is  or about 67%.
3 • Symbols P(A or B)
P(A)  P(B)  P(A and B)

Teaching Tip If students are

having trouble understanding
why they must subtract the
probability of A and B both
Example 4 Inclusive Events
occurring when finding the GAMES In the game of bingo, balls or tiles are numbered 1 through 75.
probability of inclusive events, These numbers correspond to columns on a bingo card. The numbers 1 through
15 can appear in the B column, 16 through 30 in the I column, 31 through 45
the additional example above
in the N column, 46 through 60 in the G column, and 61 through 75 in the O
should clarify the issue. For column. A number is selected at random. What is the probability that it is a
example, if you add the proba- multiple of 4 or is in the O column?
bility of picking a puppy that is
Since the numbers 64, 68, and 72 are multiples of 4 and they can be in the
 95 
male  to the probability of O column, these events are inclusive.
picking a puppy that is mixed- P(A or B)
P(A)  P(B)  P(A and B) Definition of inclusive events
 
4 9
color  , the sum is  , or 100%.
9 9 P(multiple of 4 or O column)
This is obviously incorrect

P(multiple of 4)  P(O column)  P(multiple of 4 and O column)
because not all the puppies are



male, nor are they all mixed-

18
 
15
 
3
 Substitution
color. However, when you sub- 75 75 75
tract the probability of picking a 18  15  3

 LCD is 75.
75
puppy that is male and mixed-
30 2

 or 
 93 
Simplify.
color  , you get the correct 75 5
2
2 The probability of a number being a multiple of 4 or in the O column is  or 40%.
probability of  . 5
3

3 Practice/Apply
Concept Check 1. Explain the difference between a simple event and a compound event.
1–3. See margin. 2. Find a counterexample for the following statement.
Study Notebook If two events are independent, then the probability of both events occurring is less than 1.
3. OPEN ENDED Explain how dependent events are different than independent
Have students— events. Give specific examples in your explanation.
• add the definitions/examples of 772 Chapter 14 Probability
the vocabulary terms to their
Vocabulary Builder worksheets for
Chapter 14. Answers
• include any other item(s) that they 1. A simple event is a single event, while a compound event involves
find helpful in mastering the skills two or more simple events.
in this lesson. 2. Sample answer: The probability of rolling a number less than or
equal to six on a number cube and tossing heads or tails on a coin.
3. Sample answer: With dependent events, a first object is selected
and not replaced. With independent events, a first object is
selected and replaced.

772 Chapter 14 Probability

 4. FIND THE ERROR On the school debate team, 6 of the 14 girls are seniors,
and 9 of the 20 boys are seniors. Chloe and Amber are both seniors on the team.
Each girl calculated the probability that either a girl or a senior would randomly
FIND THE ERROR
be selected to argue a position at a state debate. See margin. Both Chloe and
Amber are using the
Chloe Amber
correct procedure for finding
P(girl or senior) P(girl or senior) the probability of mutually inclu-
14 15 6 6 15 14 sive events. However, one of the
=  +  –  =  
34 34 34 34 + 34 – 34
girls is not adding and subtracting
23 7
= 
34 = 34 the correct probabilities. Suggest
that students decide for them-
Who is correct? Explain your reasoning. selves which probabilities to add,
and which one to subtract, and
Guided Practice A bin contains 8 blue chips, 5 red chips, 6 green chips, and 2 yellow chips. then compare their solutions to
Find each probability.
10 those of Amber and Chloe.
GUIDED PRACTICE KEY 5. drawing a red chip, replacing it, then drawing a green chip 
147
1
Exercises Examples 6. selecting two yellow chips without replacement 
210
80
5, 7, 13–15 1 7. choosing green, then blue, then red, replacing each chip after it is drawn  About the Exercises…
6, 8 2 3087
4
9, 11 3 8. choosing green, then blue, then red without replacing each chip  Organization by Objective
133
10, 12 4
• Independent and
A student is selected at random from a group of 12 male and 12 female students.
There are 3 male students and 3 female students from each of the 9th, 10th, 11th, Dependent Events: 16–23,
and 12th grades. Find each probability. 28–34, 36–40
1 5 • Mutually Exclusive and
9. P(9th or 12th grader)  10. P(10th grader or female) 
2 8
11. P(male or female) 1
7
12. P(male or not 11th grader) 
Inclusive Events: 24–27,
8 41–47
Application BUSINESS For Exercises 13–15, use the following information. Odd/Even Assignments
Mr. Salyer is a buyer for an electronics store. He received a shipment of 5 DVD
players in which one is defective. He randomly chose 3 of the DVD players to test.
Exercises 16–27 are structured
13. Determine whether choosing one DVD player after another indicates
so that students practice the
independent or dependent events. independent same concepts whether they
3
14. What is the probability that he selected the defective player? 
are assigned odd or even
5 problems.
15. Suppose the defective player is one of the three that Mr. Salyer tested. What is
the probability that the last one tested was the defective one? 1
3 Assignment Guide
★ indicates increased difficulty Basic: 17–27 odd, 28–35, 48–75
Practice and Apply Average: 17–27 odd, 35–40,
48–75
A bag contains 2 red, 6 blue, 7 yellow, and 3 orange marbles. Once a marble is
selected, it is not replaced. Find each probability. Advanced: 16–26 even, 38–66
For See 1 2
Exercises Examples 16. P(2 orange)  17. P(blue, then red)  (optional: 67–75)
51 51
16–19, 24, 2 7 7
25, 28–31 18. P(2 yellows in a row then orange)  19. P(blue, then yellow, then red) 
272 408
20–23, 1
32–34
A die is rolled and a spinner like the one at the right
26, 27, 41, 4
is spun. Find each probability.
Answer
44, 45 E A
1
36–40, 42, 3 20. P(3 and D)  4. Chloe; Sample answer: Since it is
43, 46, 47 30 D B
1 possible for the person chosen to
21. P(an odd number and a vowel) 
Extra Practice 5 C
See page 851. 22. P(a prime number and A) 
1 be a girl and a senior, the events
10 are inclusive. So, add the proba-
1
23. P(2 and A, B, or C) 
10 14
[Link]/self_check_quiz
bility that a girl is chosen,  ,
Lesson 14-3 Probability of Compound Events 773 34
and the probability that a senior is
15
chosen,  , then subtract the
34
probability that a senior girl is
6
chosen,  .
34

Lesson 14-3 Probability of Compound Events 773

 Study
NAME ______________________________________________ DATE

Guide andIntervention
Intervention,
____________ PERIOD _____
Raffle tickets numbered 1 through 30 are placed in a box. Tickets for a second
14-3 Study Guide and
p. 843 (shown) and p. 844 raffle numbered 21 to 48 are placed in another box. One ticket is randomly drawn
Probability of Compound Events
Independent and Dependent Events Compound events are made up of two or more
from each box. Find each probability.
24. Both tickets are even. 1
simple events. The events can be independent events or they can be dependent events.

Probability of Outcome of first event does P (A and B )
Example: rolling a 6 on a die and
Independent Events not affect outcome of second. P (A)  P (B) then rolling a 5 4
27
25. Both tickets are greater than 20 and less than 30. 
Example: without replacing the
Probability of Outcome of first event does P (A and B )

first card, choosing an ace and
Dependent Events affect outcome of second. P (A)  P (B following A)
then a king from a deck of cards 280
23
Example 1 Find the probability Example 2 A bag contains 3 red 26. The first ticket is greater than 10, and the second ticket is less than 40 or odd. 
that you will roll a six and then a marbles, 2 green marbles, and 4 blue 42
five when you roll a die twice. marbles. Two marbles are drawn randomly
By the definition of independent
events, P(A and B)
P(A)  P(B)
from the bag and not replaced. Find the
probability that both marbles are blue.
27. The first ticket is greater than 12 or prime, and the second ticket is a multiple
First roll: P(6)

1
6
By the definition of dependent events,
P(A and B)
P(A)  P(B following A)
of 6 or a multiple of 4. 69
Second roll: P(5)

1 First marble: P(blue)

4
9
280
6
3
P(6 and 5)
P(6)  P(5) Second marble: P(blue)

8
1 1

 4 3
P(blue, blue)
  
6
1
6 9 8
12
SAFETY For Exercises 28–31, use the following information.



36 72
A carbon monoxide detector system uses two sensors, A and B. If carbon monoxide is

Lesson 14-3
1
The probability that you will roll a six

and then roll a five is  .
1
36
6
present, there is a 96% chance that sensor A will detect it, a 92% chance that sensor
The probability of drawing two blue marbles
1
is  .
6
B will detect it, and a 90% chance that both sensors will detect it.
Exercises 28. Draw a Venn diagram that illustrates this situation. See margin.
A bag contains 3 red, 4 blue, and 6 yellow marbles. One marble is selected at a
time, and once a marble is selected, it is not replaced. Find each probability.

1. P(2 yellow) 
5
2. P(red, yellow) 
3
3. P(blue, red, yellow) 
6 29. If carbon monoxide is present, what is the probability that it will be detected?
26 26 143
98% or 0.98
4. George has two red socks and two white socks in a drawer. What is the probability of
picking a red sock and a white sock in that order if the first sock is not replaced? 1

Safety 30. What is the probability that carbon monoxide would go undetected? 2% or 0.02
3
5. Phyllis drops a penny in a pond, and then she drops a nickel in the pond. What is the
In the U.S., 60% of carbon
probability that both coins land with tails showing? 1

4 monoxide emissions come 31. Do sensors A and B operate independently of each other? Explain.
6. A die is rolled and a penny is dropped. Find the probability of rolling a two and
showing a tail. 1
from transportation no; P(A and B)  P(A)
P(B)

12 sources. The largest
NAME ______________________________________________ DATE ____________ PERIOD _____
contributor is highway BIOLOGY For Exercises 32–34, use the table and
Skills
14-3 Practice,
Practice (Average)
p. 845 and motor vehicles. In urban B b
Practice, following information.
Probabilityp. 846 (shown)
of Compound Events areas, motor vehicles can B BB Bb
A bag contains 5 red, 3 brown, 6 yellow, and 2 blue marbles. Once a marble is Each person carries two types of genes for eye color.
selected, it is not replaced. Find each probability. contribute more than 90%.
3 1 The gene for brown eyes (B) is dominant over the gene b Bb bb
1. P(brown, then yellow, then red) 
112
2. P(red, then red, then blue) 
84 Source: U.S. Environmental
3. P(yellow, then yellow, then not blue) 
3
4. P(brown, then brown, then not yellow) 
1
Protection Agency
for blue eyes (b). That is, if a person has one gene for
28 70
A die is rolled and a card is drawn from a standard deck of 52 cards. Find each
brown eyes and the other for blue, that person will have
probability.
1 1
brown eyes. The Punnett square at the right shows the
5. P(6 and king)  6. P(odd number and black) 
78
1
4
5
genes for two parents.
7. P(less than 3 and heart)  8. P(greater than 1 and black ace) 
12 156 1
32. What is the probability that any child will have blue eyes? 
One card is drawn from a standard deck of 52 cards. Find each probability.
10 3
4
11. P(spade or numbered card)  12. P(ace or red queen) 
9
33. What is the probability that the couple’s two children both have brown eyes? 
13 26
23 49
13. P(red or not face card) 
26
14. P(heart or not queen) 
52 16
7
Tiles numbered 1 through 25 are placed in a box. Tiles numbered 11 through 30
are placed in a second box. One tile is randomly drawn from each box. Find each 34. Find the probability that the first or the second child has blue eyes. 
probability. 16
4
17. P(both are greater than 15 and less than 20) 
125
51
18. The first tile is greater than 10 and the second tile is less than 25 or even. 
100
19. The first tile is a multiple of 3 or prime and the second tile is a multiple of 5. 
16
125
35. RESEARCH Use the Internet or other reference to investigate various blood
20. The first tile is less than 9 or odd and the second tile is a multiple of 4 or less than 21.
51
types. Use this information to determine the probability of a child having

125 blood type O if the father has blood type A(Ai) and the mother has blood
type B(Bi). 1
21. WEATHER The forecast predicts a 40% chance of rain on Tuesday and a 60% chance on
Wednesday. If these probabilities are independent, what is the chance that it will rain on
both days? 24%
4
FOOD Tomaso places favorite recipes in a bag for 4 pasta dishes, 5 casseroles,
3 types of chili, and 8 desserts.
22. If Tomaso chooses one recipe at random, what is the probability that he selects a pasta
9
dish or a casserole? 
20
TRANSPORTATION For Exercises 36 and 37, Commuting Method
23. If Tomaso chooses one recipe at random, what is the probability that he does not select a
use the graph and the following information. Lake County, IL
3
dessert? 
5
24. If Tomaso chooses two recipes at random without replacement, what is the probability that The U.S. Census Bureau conducted an American 0.3% 0.7% 3.7%
2
the first recipe he selects is a casserole and the second recipe he selects is a dessert?  Bicycle Other Work
19 Community Survey in Lake County, Illinois. The 4.9%
NAME ______________________________________________ DATE ____________ PERIOD _____
circle graph at the right shows the survey results Public at
Reading
14-3 Readingto
to Learn
Learn Mathematics Transportation Home
Mathematics, p. 847 ELL of how people commute to work.
Probability of Compound Events 1.5%
Pre-Activity How are probabilities used by meteorologists? 36. If a person from Lake County was chosen at Walk
Read the introduction to Lesson 14-3 at the top of page 769 in your
textbook. random, what is the probability that he or she
Is it more likely to rain or not rain on Saturday? on Sunday? Explain.
It is more likely not to rain on Saturday because the
uses public transportation or walks to work? 6.4% 88.9%
probability of rain is less than 50%; the reverse is true for Motor Vehicle
Sunday. 37. If offices are being built in Lake County to
Reading the Lesson accommodate 400 employees, what is the
1. Complete the chart. minimum number of parking spaces an Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Term

independent events Rolling two dice

Example Formula

P(A and B )
P(A)  P(B)

architect should plan for the parking lot? 356
dependent events Sample answer: Randomly P(A and B) 
choosing names from a hat P(A)
P(B following A) 774 Chapter 14 Probability
without replacement

mutually exclusive Sample answer: Getting a P(A or B)  P(A)  P(B)

events number less than 3 and
getting a number greater NAME ______________________________________________ DATE ____________ PERIOD _____
than 4 when rolling a die
Enrichment,
14-3 Enrichment p. 848
Answer
inclusive events Sample answer: Being born P(A or B) 
on Friday or on the 13th day P(A)  P(B)  P(A and B)
of the month
Conditional Probability 28.
The probability of an event given the occurrence of another event is
called conditional probability. The conditional probability of event
2. In probability, what is meant by the phrase with replacement? A given event B is denoted P(A)B).
After an item is chosen randomly, it is put back in and can be A B
chosen again. Example Suppose a pair of number cubes is rolled. It is

Helping You Remember

known that the sum is greater than seven. Find the probability
that the number cubes match. 0.06 0.90 0.02
There are 15 sums greater than seven and There are three matching pairs greater
3. Look up the following terms in a dictionary. Write the definitions that best relate to the
there are 36 possible pairs altogether. than seven, (4, 4), (5, 5), and (6, 6).
way these terms are used in probability. See students’ work.
15 3
P(B)
 P(A and B)

independent 36 36
P(A and B)
dependent P(A)B)

P(B)
exclusive 3

36 1

 or 
inclusive 15

36
5

1
0.02
The conditional probability is  .
5

774 Chapter 14 Probability

 ECONOMICS For Exercises 38–40, use the table below that compares the total
number of hourly workers who earned the minimum wage of $5.15 with those
making less than minimum wage.

Number of Hourly Workers (thousands)

Age (years) Total At $5.15 Below $5.15
16 – 24 15,793 1145 2080
25 55,287 970 2043
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

38. If an hourly worker was chosen at random, what is the probability that he or she
earned minimum wage? less than minimum wage? ⬇ 0.03; ⬇ 0.06
39. What is the probability that a randomly-chosen hourly worker earned less than
or equal to minimum wage? ⬇ 0.09
Economics
The first federal minimum 40. If you randomly chose an hourly worker from each age group, which would
wage was set in 1938 at you expect to have earned no more than minimum wage? Explain.
$0.25 per hour. That was A worker in the 16–24 age group; the probability is greater for that age group.
the equivalent of $3.05 GEOMETRY For Exercises 41–43, use the figure and
in 2000. the following information.
Source: U.S. Department of A
Two of the six non-straight angles in the figure are chosen
Labor
at random.
★ 41. What is the probability of choosing an angle inside
30˚ 50˚
䉭ABC or an obtuse angle? 1 C B
★ 42. What is the probability of selecting a straight angle
or a right angle inside 䉭ABC? 0
★ 43. Find the probability of picking a 20° angle or a 130° angle. 35

A dart is thrown at a dartboard like the one at the

right. If the dart can land anywhere on the board, find
5 in.
the probability that it lands in each of the following.
★ 44. a triangle or a red region 5
8
7
★ 45. a trapezoid or a blue region  5 in.
8
★ 46. a blue triangle or a red triangle 1
4
★ 47. a square or a hexagon 3 3 in. 6 in. 3 in.
4

CRITICAL THINKING For Exercises 48–51, use

the following information.
A sample of high school students were asked Event A Event B
if they:
36 38 8
A) drive a car to school,
B) are involved in after-school activities, or 2
25 5
C) have a part-time job.
The results of the survey are shown in the Venn
3
diagram.
Event C
48. How many students were surveyed? 120 3

49. How many students said that they drive

a car to school? 101
50. If a high school student is chosen at random, what is the probability that he or
she does all three? 1
60
51. What is the probability that a randomly-chosen student drives a car to school
or is involved in after-school activities or has a part-time job? 39
40
Lesson 14-3 Probability of Compound Events 775

Lesson 14-3 Probability of Compound Events 775

 52. WRITING IN MATH Answer the question that was posed at the beginning
4 Assess of the lesson. See margin.
How are probabilities used by meteorologists?
Open-Ended Assessment Include the following in your answer:
• a few sentences about how compound probabilities can be used to predict
Writing Have students write an the weather, and
example of how they could use a • assuming that the events are independent, the probability that it will rain
probability calculation in their either Saturday or Sunday if there is a 30% chance of rain on Saturday and
daily lives. The example should a 50% chance of rain Sunday. 80%
include both a description of
how the probability calculation Standardized 53. A bag contains 8 red marbles, 5 blue marbles, 4 green marbles, and 7 yellow
could be used, and a sample Test Practice marbles. Five marbles are randomly drawn from the bag and not replaced.
What is the probability that the first three marbles drawn are red? C
calculation with sample data. 1 28 7 7
A  B  C  D 
27 1771 253 288

Getting Ready for 54. Yolanda usually makes 80% of her free throws. What is the probability that she
will make at least one free throw in her next three attempts? A
Lesson 14-4 A 99.2% B 51.2% C 38.4% D 9.6%
PREREQUISITE SKILL Students
will learn about probability Maintain Your Skills
distributions in Lesson 14-4. In
probability distributions, the Mixed Review CIVICS For Exercises 55 and 56, use the following information.
The Stratford town council wants to form a 3-person parks committee. Five people
probabilities are most often
have applied to be on the committee. (Lesson 14-2)
expressed as decimals instead of
55. How many committees are possible? 10
fractions. Use Exercises 67–75 to
determine your students’ 56. What is the probability of any one person being selected if each has an equal
chance? 3
familiarity with expressing 5
fractions as decimals.
57. BUSINESS A real estate developer built a strip mall with seven different-sized
stores. Ten small businesses have shown interest in renting space in the mall.
Assessment Options The developer must decide which business would be best suited for each store.
Quiz (Lesson 14-3) is available How many different arrangements are possible? (Lesson 14-1) 604,800
on p. 875 of the Chapter 14
Resource Masters. Find each sum or difference. (Lesson 13-2)
2 4 1 2
Mid-Chapter Test (Lessons 14-1 58. 
1
3 6
2
  
1 5 0 冤 7 冥 59.
4 5
8 8
9 7
4 9    冤54 冥
2
1
through 14-3) is available on
2m2  7m  15 9m2  4 2m 
  3
p. 877 of the Chapter 14 Resource 60. Find the quotient of  and .
m5 3m  2
(Lesson 12-4)
3m  2
Masters.
Simplify. (Lesson 11-1)

Answer  3兹5苶
61. 45  8兹2苶
62. 128 63.  苶
40b4 2b 2兹10
苶 65. 37  62 18兹14
64.  2a兹30ab
120a3b 苶 3  6 
66. 3
52. Sample answer: Meteorologists
3  3兹2
苶
use probabilities to forecast the
weather. Answers should include
Getting Ready for PREREQUISITE SKILL Express each fraction as a decimal. Round to the nearest
the Next Lesson thousandth. (To review expressing fractions as decimals, see pages 804 and 805.)
the following. 9 2 63
67.  0.375 68.  0.133 69.  0.492
• You can use compound 24 15 128
5 8 11
probabilities to forecast the 70.  0.096 71.  0.222 72.  0.289
52 36 38
weather over an extended 81 18 128
73.  0.033 74.  0.015 75.  0.036
period of time. 2470 1235 3570

• 80% 776 Chapter 14 Probability

776 Chapter 14 Probability

 Probability Distributions Lesson
Notes

• Use random variables to compute probability.

• Use probability distributions to solve
real-world problems. Number
of Pets
Number of
Customers
1 Focus
Vocabulary 0
• random variable
can a pet store owner use 3
5-Minute Check
a probability distribution? 1 37
• probability distribution Transparency 14-4 Use as
2 33
• probability histogram The owner of a pet store asked customers a quiz or review of Lesson 14-3.
3 18
how many pets they owned. The results
4 9
of this survey are shown in the table. Mathematical Background notes
are available for this lesson on
p. 752D.
RANDOM VARIABLES AND PROBABILITY A random variable is a
variable whose value is the numerical outcome of a random event. In the situation can a pet store owner
above, we can let the random variable X represent the number of pets owned. Thus,
X can equal 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4.
use a probability
distribution?
Ask students:
Example 1 Random Variable
• How many customers were
Refer to the application above.
surveyed? 100
a. Find the probability that a randomly-chosen customer has 2 pets. • The pet owners surveyed own
Study Tip There is only one outcome in which there are 2 pets owned, and there are how many pets total? They own
100 survey results.
Reading Math 2 pets owned
193 pets.
The notation P(X
2) P(X
2)

customers surveyed • Pets Use a table similar to the
means the same as
P(2 pets), the probability of

33 one shown on this page to
100
a customer having 2 pets. survey the students in your
33
The probability that a randomly-chosen customer has 2 pets is  or 33%. classroom to find out how
100
many pets each student owns.
b. Find the probability that a randomly-chosen customer has at least 3 pets. What is the greatest number of
There are 18  9 or 27 outcomes in which a customer owns at least 3 pets. pets owned by a student in your
P(X  3)

27 class? Are there students who
100
have no pets? Answers depend
27
The probability that a randomly-chosen customer owns at least 3 pets is  on student responses to the survey.
100
or 27%.

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS The probability of every possible value of

the random variable X is called a probability distribution.

Properties of Probability Distributions

1. The probability of each value of X is greater than or equal to 0 and less than or
equal to 1.
2. The probabilities of all of the values of X add up to 1.

[Link]/extra_examples Lesson 14-4 Probability Distributions 777

Resource Manager
Workbook and Reproducible Masters Transparencies
Chapter 14 Resource Masters Graphing Calculator and 5-Minute Check Transparency 14-4
• Study Guide and Intervention, pp. 849–850 Spreadsheet Masters, p. 50 Answer Key Transparencies
• Skills Practice, p. 851 Parent and Student Study Guide
• Practice, p. 852 Workbook, p. 110 Technology
• Reading to Learn Mathematics, p. 853 Interactive Chalkboard
• Enrichment, p. 854
• Assessment, p. 876

Lesson x-x Lesson Title 777

 The probability distribution for a random variable can be given in a table or in a

2 Teach probability histogram. The probability distribution and a probability histogram for
the application at the beginning of the lesson are shown below.

RANDOM VARIABLES AND Probability Distribution Table Probability Histogram

PROBABILITY X  Number of Pets P(X)
0.50
0 0.03
In-Class Example Power
Point®
1 0.37 0.40
2 0.33
1 Use the data from Example 1 3 0.18 0.30

P(X)
in the Student Edition to 4 0.09
0.20
solve the following problems.
0.10
a. Find the probability that a
randomly chosen customer 0
0 1 2 3 4
has at most 2 pets. X  Number of Pets
73
P(X  2)   or 73%
100
Example 2 Probability Distribution
b. Find the probability that a
CARS The table shows the probability
randomly chosen customer distribution of the number of vehicles per
Vehicles per Household
has 2 or 3 pets. Columbus, OH
household for the Columbus, Ohio, area.
51 X  Number of
P(2  X  3)   or about 51% a. Show that the distribution is valid. Vehicles
Probability
100
Check to see that each property holds. 0 0.10
1. For each value of X, the probability is 1 0.42
greater than or equal to 0 and less than 2 0.36
PROBABILITY or equal to 1. 3 0.12
DISTRIBUTIONS 2. 0.10  0.42  0.36  0.12
1, so the Source: U.S. Census Bureau
probabilities add up to 1.
In-Class Example Power
Point®
b. What is the probability that a household has fewer than 2 vehicles?
2 The table below shows the Recall that the probability of a compound event is the sum of the probabilities
Cars of each individual event.
probability distribution of the In 1900, there were
number of students in each 8000 registered cars in The probability of a household having fewer than 2 vehicles is the sum of the
grade at Sunnybrook High the United States. By probability of 0 vehicles and the probability of 1 vehicle.
School. 2000, there were over P(X  2)
P(X
0)  P(X
1) Sum of individual probabilities
133 million registered

0.10  0.42 or 0.52 P(X
0)
0.10, P(X
1)
0.42
X  Grade P(X ) cars. This is an increase
of more than 1,662,400%.
9 0.29 Source: The World Almanac c. Make a probability histogram of the data.
Vehicles per Household
10 0.26 Draw and label the vertical and horizontal
axes. Remember to use equal intervals on 0.45
11 0.25 each axis. Include a title. 0.4
12 0.2 0.35
P(X) 0.3
a. If a student is chosen at 0.25
0.2
random, what is the 0.15
probability that he or she is 0.1
in grade 11 or above? 0.05
P(X  11)  P(X  12)  0.45 0
0 1 2 3
b. Make a probability histogram X  Number of Vehicles

of the data.
Students per Grade 778 Chapter 14 Probability
0.300
0.275
0.250
P(X )
0.225
Differentiated Instruction
0.200 Interpersonal Place students in small groups and have the groups
0 collect data for probability distribution tables and histograms. Students
9 10 11 12 could collect data such as the number of siblings of their classmates,
X  Grade the number of desks in the classrooms in your hallway, and so on.
Have groups share their distribution tables and histograms once they
have gathered their data.

778 Chapter 14 Probability

 Many students
Concept Check 1. List the conditions that must be satisfied to have a valid probability distribution. New are extremely
2. Explain why the probability of tossing a coin three times and getting 1 head and sensitive about
1 –3. See margin.
2 tails is the same as the probability of getting 1 tail and 2 heads. personal details
3. OPEN ENDED Describe a situation that could be displayed in a probability such as their
histogram. age, height, weight, or shoe
size. When creating histograms
Guided Practice For Exercises 4–6, use the table that shows the possible sums when rolling
based on student data, choose
two dice and the number of ways each sum can be found.
GUIDED PRACTICE KEY less sensitive data such as the
Exercises Examples Sum of
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
number of books students read
Two Dice this semester, the number of
4–6 1
7–9 2 Ways to trees in their yard, or the num-
1 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 1
Achieve Sum
1
5. P(X  4)  ,
ber of languages they expect
12 4. Draw a table to show the sample space of all possible outcomes. See pp. to speak fluently by the time
1 795A–795B.
P(X  5)  , 5. Find the probabilities for X
4, X
5, and X
6. they graduate from college.
9
5 6. What is the probability that the sum of two dice is greater than 6 on each of
P(X  6)   three separate rolls? 343
36 
1728
Application GRADES For Exercises 7–9, use
the table that shows a class’s
grade distribution, where A  4.0,
X  Grade 0 1.0 2.0 3.0
Probability 0.05 0.10 0.40 0.40 0.05
4.0 3 Practice/Apply
B  3.0, C  2.0, D  1.0, and F  0. 7. 0.05  0.10  0.40  0.40  0.05  1
7. Show that the probability distribution is valid.
8. What is the probability that a student passes the course? 0.95
Study Notebook
9. What is the probability that a student chosen at random from the class receives a Have students—
grade of B or better? 0.45
• add the definitions/examples of
the vocabulary terms to their
Practice and Apply Vocabulary Builder worksheets for
For Exercises 10–13, the spinner shown is spun three times. Chapter 14.
For See
10. Write the sample space with all possible outcomes. • include any other item(s) that they
Exercises Examples 11. Find the probability distribution X, where X represents find helpful in mastering the skills
10, 11, 1 the number of times the spinner lands on blue for X
0,
14, 18
X
1, X
2, and X
3.
in this lesson.
12, 13, 2
15–17, 12. Make a probability histogram.
19–22
13. Do all possible outcomes have an equal chance of occurring? Explain.
Extra Practice
See page 852.
SALES For Exercises 14–17, use the following information.
A music store manager takes an inventory of the top 10 CDs sold each week. After
10–13. See pp. several weeks, the manager has enough information to estimate sales and make a About the Exercises…
795A–795B. probability distribution table.
Organization by Objective
Number of Top 10 CDs • Random Variables and
0–100 101– 200 201– 300 301– 400 401– 500
Sold Each Week Probability: 10–15
Probability 0.10 0.15 0.40 0.25 0.10 • Probability Distributions:
14. Let X  number 16–22
14. Define a random variable and list its values.
of CDs; X  100, 200,
300, 400, 500. 15. Show that this is a valid probability distribution. Odd/Even Assignments
15. 0.10  0.15  16. In a given week, what is the probability that no more than 400 CDs sell? 0.90 Exercises 10–17 are structured
0.40  0.25  0.10  1 17. In a given week, what is the probability that more than 200 CDs sell? 0.75 so that students practice the
same concepts whether they
[Link]/self_check_quiz Lesson 14-4 Probability Distributions 779
are assigned odd or even
problems.
Answers
1. The probability of each event is versus getting a tail is the same. No matter
Assignment Guide
between 0 and 1 inclusive. The what is tossed, the same probability is Basic: 10–17, 23–48
probabilities for each value of the multiplied three times. Average: 10–17, 23–48
random variable add up to 1. 3. Sample answer: the number of possible correct Advanced: 18–42 (optional:
2. Sample answer: The probability of answers on a 5-question multiple choice quiz, 43–48)
tossing a coin and getting a head and the probability of each All: Practice Quiz 2 (1–5)

Lesson 14-4 Probability Distributions 779

 NAME ______________________________________________ DATE ____________ PERIOD _____

Study Guide andIntervention

Intervention, EDUCATION For Exercises 18–20, use X  Level of Education Probability
14-4 Study Guide and
p. 849 (shown) and p. 850 the table that shows the education level
Probability Distributions
of persons aged 25 and older in the Some High School 0.167
Random Variables and Probability Distributions A random variable X is a
variable whose value is the numerical outcome of a random event.
United States. 19–20. See pp. 795A–795B. High School Graduate 0.333
Example A teacher asked her students how many
siblings they have. The results are shown in the table at
Number of Number of
18. If a person was randomly selected, Some College 0.173
Siblings Students
the right.
0
1
1
15
what is the probability that he or she Associate’s Degree 0.075
a. Find the probability that a randomly selected student
has 2 siblings. 2 8 completed at most some college? 0.673 Bachelor’s Degree 0.170
The random variable X can equal 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4. In the table, 3 2
the value X
2 is paired with 8 outcomes, and there are
27 students surveyed.
4 1
19. Make a probability histogram of the Advanced Degree 0.082
P(X
2)

2 siblings
27 students surveyed data.


8 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
27
8
20. Explain how you can find the probability
The probability that a randomly selected student has 2 siblings is  , or 29.6%.
27
that a randomly selected person has earned at least a bachelor’s degree.
b. Find the probability that a randomly selected student has at least three siblings.
21
P(X  3)

27

The probability that a randomly selected student has at least 3 siblings is  , or 11.1%.
1 SPORTS For Exercises 21 and 22,
9

Exercises
use the graph that shows the sports USA TODAY Snapshots®
most watched by women on TV.
For Exercises 1–3, use the grade distribution
Women follow football on TV
X  Grade 5 4 3 2 1
shown at the right. A grade of A  5, B  4,
C  3, D  2, F  1. Number of
Students
6 9 5 4 1 21. Determine whether this is a
1. Find the probability that a randomly selected Lesson 14-4 valid probability distribution. Professional football gets better television ratings than
student in this class received a grade of C. 1 any other sport, probably because it appeals to both

5 Justify your answer. See pp. 795A– men and women. Top choices among women 12 and up
2. Find the probability that a randomly selected student in this class received a grade
lower than a C. 1 795B. who watch sports:

5 22. Based on the graph, in a group
3. What is the probability that a randomly selected student in this class passes the course,
that is, gets at least a D? 24
of 35 women how many would

25
you expect to say they watch National
4. The table shows the results of tossing 3 coins Football League 22.1%
50 times. What is the probability of getting
2 or 3 heads? 48%
X  Number of Heads
Number of Times
0
6
1
20 19
2 3
5
figure skating? 2 Major League
Baseball 13.6%
NAME ______________________________________________ DATE ____________ PERIOD _____
National Basketball
Skills
14-4 Practice,
Practice (Average)
p. 851 and 23. CRITICAL THINKING Suppose Association 12.6%
Practice,
Probabilityp. 852 (shown)
Distributions a married couple has children Figure skating 6.5%
For Exercises 1–3, the spinner shown is spun two times.
until they have a girl. Let the
4.3%
BLUE
1. Write the sample space with all possible outcomes. College football
BB, BW, BR, BY, BG, WB, WW, WR, WY, WG, RB, RW, GREEN YELLOW
random variable X represent
RR, RY, RG, YB, YW, YR, YY, YG, GB, GW, GR, GY, GG
2. Find the probability distribution X, where X represents the number
WHITE RED
the number of children in their
of times the spinner lands on blue for X
0, X
1, and X
2.
P (X  0)  0.64, P(X  1)  0.32, P(X  2)  0.04 family. a–b. See pp. 795A–795B.
3. Make a probability histogram. Spinner Probability

0.8
Distribution
a. Calculate the probabilities Source: ESPN Sports Poll By Ellen J. Horrow and Sam Ward, USA TODAY

for X
1, 2, 3, and 4.
0.6
P(X ) 0.4
0.2
0
0 1 2
X  Number of Times
Spinner Lands on Blue
b. Find the probability that the couple will have more than 4 children.
TELECOMMUNICATIONS For Exercises 4–6, X  Number
use the table that shows the probability 1 2 3 4 5
distribution of the number of telephones
of Telephones
Probability 0.01 0.16 0.34 0.39 0.10
24. WRITING IN MATH Answer the question that was posed at the beginning of
per student’s household at Wilson High.
4. Show that this is a valid probability distribution.
the lesson. See pp. 795A–795B.
0.01  0.16  0.34  0.39  0.10  1
5. If a student is chosen at random, what is the probability that there are more than
3 telephones at the student’s home? 0.49
How can a pet store owner use a probability distribution?
6. Make a probability histogram.
0.4
Wilson High Households
Include the following in your answer:
0.3
P(X ) 0.2
0.1
• a sentence or two describing how to create a probability distribution, and
0
1 2 3 4 5
X  Number of Telephones
• an explanation of how the store owner could use a probability distribution
per Household
to establish a frequent buyer program.
LANDSCAPING For Exercises 7–9, use the table Number
that shows the probability distribution of the 50 100 150 200 250
of Shrubs
number of shrubs (rounded to the nearest 50)
Probability 0.11 0.24 0.45 0.16 0.04
ordered by corporate clients of a landscaping
company over the past five years.
7. Define a random variable and list its values. Let X  the number of shrubs
Standardized 25. The table shows the probability distribution for the number of heads when four
ordered; X  50, 100, 150, 200, 250
8. Show that this is a valid probability distribution.
Test Practice coins are tossed. What is the probability that there are no more than two heads
0.11  0.24  0.45  0.16  0.04  1 showing on a random toss? A
9. What is the probability that a client’s (rounded) order was at least 150 shrubs? 0.65

NAME ______________________________________________ DATE ____________ PERIOD _____

Reading
14-4 Readingto
to Learn
Learn Mathematics
X  Number of Heads 0 1 2 3 4
Mathematics, p. 853 ELL
Probability Distributions Probability P(X) 0.0625 0.25 0.375 0.25 0.0625
Pre-Activity How can a pet store owner use a probability distribution?
Read the introduction to Lesson 14-4 at the top of page 777 in your
textbook. A 0.6875 B 0.375 C 0.875 D 0.3125
• How many customers did the store owner survey? 80 customers
• Based on the survey, it is most likely that a customer would have
1 pet(s) and least likely that they would have 4 pet(s).
26. On a random roll of two dice, what is the probability that the sum of the
numbers showing is less than 5? B
Reading the Lesson A 0.08 B 0.17 C 0.11 D 0.28
The table below shows the probability of Family Size (United States)
various family sizes in the United States.
X  Size of Family Probability
1. For each value of X, is the probability greater 2 0.42
than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 1? yes 3 0.23 780 Chapter 14 Probability
4 0.21
2. What is the sum of the probabilities? 1
5 0.10

3. Is the probability distribution valid? yes 6 0.03

7 0.01
4. Complete the probability histogram of the data. Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States
NAME ______________________________________________ DATE ____________ PERIOD _____
Title: Family Size (United States)
0.60
Enrichment,
14-4 Enrichment p. 854
0.50

0.40
Golden Rectangles
P(X ) 0.30
A golden rectangle has the property that its sides satisfy
0.20 the following proportion.
ab a
0.10 
 b
a b
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 Two quadratic equations can be written from the proportion.
X  Size of Family These are sometimes called golden quadratic equations.
a

1. In the proportion, let a
1. Use 2. Solve the equation in Exercise 1 for b.

Helping You Remember cross-multiplication to write a
1 
5

quadratic equation. b  
5. Use the outcomes of tossing a coin to describe how the probabilities of the possible 2
b2  b  1  0
outcomes add up to 1. P(heads)  0.5; P(tails)  0.5; 0.5  0.5  1

3. In the proportion, let b
1. Write 4. Solve the equation in Exercise 3 for a.

a quadratic equation in a.
1 
5

a 
a2  a  1  0 2

780 Chapter 14 Probability

Maintain Your Skills
Mixed Review A card is drawn from a standard deck of 52 cards. Find each probability.
4 Assess
(Lesson 14-3)
2
27. P(ace or 10) 
4
28. P(3 or diamond)  29. P(odd number or spade)
Open Ended Assessment
13 13 25
 Modeling Ask student volunteers
Evaluate. (Lesson 14-2) 52 to go to the chalkboard or over-
30. 10C7 120 31. 12C5 792 32. (6P3)(5P3) 7200 head projector. Give the students
sets of data to put into probabil-
Let A  15 47 and B  3
2 5
0
. (Lesson 13-2) ity distribution tables and histo-
33. Find A  B. 23 4
12  34. Find B  A. 4
7
4
2  grams. Have students model
how to determine whether the
Write an inverse variation equation that relates x and y. Assume that y varies given data fits the properties of
inversely as x. Then solve. (Lesson 12-1) probability distributions.
35. If y
2.4 when x
0.6, find y when x
1.8. xy  1.44; 0.8
4
36. If y
4 when x
1, find x when y
3. xy  4; 
3 Getting Ready for
Simplify each expression. (Lesson 11-2) Lesson 14-5

37. 38  72 13
2  4
3
38. 23  12  
7
39. 37  228 PREREQUISITE SKILL Students
will learn about probability
SAVINGS For Exercises 40–42, use the following information. simulations in Lesson 14-5.
Selena is investing her $900 tax refund in a certificate of deposit that matures in When calculating probability
4 years. The interest rate is 8.25% compounded quarterly. (Lesson 10-6)
from a simulation, the initial
40. Determine the balance in the account after 4 years. $1247.68 fraction may have a numerator
41. Her friend Monique invests the same amount of money at the same interest rate, and denominator that are very
but her bank compounds interest monthly. Determine how much she will have
after 4 years. $1250.46 large numbers. Students may
42. Which type of compounding appears more profitable? Explain.
then simplify those fractions or
Sample answer: Monthly; the interest earned is higher than quarterly. change them to a percent. Use
Getting Ready for PREREQUISITE SKILL Write each fraction as a percent rounded to the nearest Exercises 43–48 to determine
the Next Lesson whole number. (To review writing fractions as percents, see pages 804 and 805.) your students’ familiarity with
16
43.  20%
20
44.  38%
30
45.  26% changing fractions to percents.
80 52 114
57 72 54
46.  48% 47.  21% 48.  33% Assessment Options
120 340 162
Practice Quiz 2 The quiz
P ractice Quiz 2 Lessons 14-3 and 14-4 provides students with a brief
review of the concepts and skills
For Exercises 1–3, use the probability distribution for the number of American Households in Lesson 14-3 and 14-4. Lesson
people in a household. (Lesson 14-4)
X  Number
Probability
numbers are given to the right of
1. Show that the probability distribution is valid. of People the exercises or instruction lines
2. If a household is chosen at random, what is the probability that 4 or 1 0.25
more people live in it? 0.25 or 25%
so students can review concepts
2 0.32 not yet mastered.
3. Make a histogram of the data. See margin. 3 0.18
1. 0.25  0.32  0.18  0.15  0.07  0.02  0.01  1 Quiz (Lesson 14-4) is available
4 0.15
A ten-sided die, numbered 1 through 10, is rolled. Find each on p. 876 of the Chapter 14
5 0.07
probability. Resource Masters.
4 6 0.02
4. P(odd or greater than 4) 
5 1 7 0.01
5. P(less than 3 or greater than 7) 
2 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Answer
3. 0.35
Lesson 14-4 Probability Distributions 781
0.3

0.25
Online Lesson Plans 0.2
P(X )

USA TODAY Education’s Online site offers resources and 0.15

interactive features connected to each day’s newspaper.
0.1
Experience TODAY, USA TODAY’s daily lesson plan, is
available on the site and delivered daily to subscribers. 0.05
This plan provides instruction for integrating USA TODAY
0
graphics and key editorial features into your mathematics 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
classroom. Log on to [Link]. X  Number of People

Lesson 14-4 Probability Distributions 781

 Lesson Probability Simulations
Notes

• Use theoretical and experimental probability to represent and solve problems

1 Focus involving uncertainty.

• Perform probability simulations to model real-world situations involving
Vocabulary uncertainty.
5-Minute Check • theoretical probability
Transparency 14-5 Use as can probability simulations be used in health care?
• experimental probability
a quiz or review of Lesson 14-4. • relative frequency A pharmaceutical company is developing a new medication to treat a
• empirical study certain heart condition. Based on similar drugs, researchers at the company
Mathematical Background notes • simulation expect the new drug to work successfully in 70% of patients.
are available for this lesson on To test the drug’s effectiveness, the company performs three clinical studies.
p. 752D. Each study involves 100 volunteers who use the drug for six months. The
results of the studies are shown in the table.

Building on Prior
Knowledge
Study Of New Medication
In Lesson 2-6, students learned Result Study 1 Study 2 Study 3
to find the probability of simple Expected Success Rate 70% 70% 70%
Condition Improved 61% 74% 67%
events. In this lesson, students No Improvement 39% 25% 33%
will learn that the probabilities Condition Worsened 0% 1% 0%

they calculated in Lesson 2-6

were theoretical probabilities.
More About . . .
can probability THEORETICAL AND EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY The probability
simulations be used in we have used to describe events in previous lessons is theoretical probability.
health care? Theoretical probabilities are determined mathematically and describe what should
happen. In the situation above, the expected success rate of 70% is a theoretical
Ask students: probability.
• If researchers think the proba- A second type of probability we can use is experimental probability, which is
bility of success of their new determined using data from tests or experiments. Experimental probability is the
drug will be 70%, how many ratio of the number of times an outcome occurred to the total number of events or
patients out of 100 should see trials. This ratio is also known as the relative frequency .
Medical frequency of an outcome
an improvement in their Researcher experimental probability

total number of trials
condition? 70 Many medical researchers
• How did the expected success conduct research to
advance knowledge of
rate compare to the number of living organisms, including
Example 1 Experimental Probability
people who actually saw their viruses and bacteria. MEDICAL RESEARCH Refer to the application at the beginning of the lesson.
condition improve in the three What is the experimental probability that the drug was successful for a patient
Online Research in Study 1?
studies? Fewer than 70 improved For information about
in the first study, more than 70 a career as a medical In Study 1, the drug worked successfully in 61 of the 100 patients.
improved in the second study, and researcher, visit: 61 ← frequency of successes
[Link]/ experimental probability
  
← total number of patients
fewer than 70 improved in the third 100
careers 61
study. The experimental probability of Study 1 is  or 61%.
100

782 Chapter 14 Probability

Resource Manager
Workbook and Reproducible Masters Transparencies
Chapter 14 Resource Masters Graphing Calculator and 5-Minute Check Transparency 14-5
• Study Guide and Intervention, pp. 855–856 Spreadsheet Masters, p. 49 Answer Key Transparencies
• Skills Practice, p. 857 Parent and Student Study Guide
• Practice, p. 858 Workbook, p. 111 Technology
• Reading to Learn Mathematics, p. 859 School-to-Career Masters, p. 28 Interactive Chalkboard
• Enrichment, p. 860 Teaching Algebra With Manipulatives
• Assessment, p. 876 Masters, pp. 22, 209
 It is often useful to perform an experiment repeatedly, collect and combine the
data, and analyze the results. This is known as an empirical study.
2 Teach
Example 2 Empirical Study THEORETICAL AND
Refer to the application at the beginning of the lesson. What is the experimental EXPERIMENTAL
probability that the drug was successful for all three studies? PROBABILITY
The number of successful outcomes of the three studies was 61  74  67 or
202 out of the 300 total patients. In-Class Examples Power
Point®
202 101
experimental probability
 or 
300 150 1 Miguel shot 50 free throws in
101
The experimental probability of the three studies was  or about 67%. the gym and found that his
150
experimental probability of
making a free throw was 40%.
PERFORMING SIMULATIONS A method that is often used to find How many free throws did
experimental probability is a simulation. A simulation allows you to use objects Miguel make? Miguel made
to act out an event that would be difficult or impractical to perform. 20 free throws.

2 Refer to the application at the

4. Sample answer: beginning of the lesson. What
Simulations
the class’s probability is the experimental probabil-
since there are more Collect the Data ity that the drug would cause
trials a patient to show no improve-
• Roll a die 20 times. Record the value
5. Sample answer: on the die after each roll. ment for all three studies?
The class’s probability
• Determine the experimental 97
should be closer to the probability distribution for X, the  or about 32%
theoretical probability. 300
value on the die.
6. Sample answer: • Combine your results with the rest
The more times an of the class to find the experimental
experiment is probability distribution for X given
performed, the the new number of trials.
experimental (20  the number of students in your class)
probability is closer
to the theoretical Analyze the Data
1
probability. 1. Find the theoretical probability of rolling a 2. 6
1
2. Find the theoretical probability of rolling a 1 or a 6. 3
1
Study Tip 3. Find the theoretical probability of rolling a value less than 4. 2
Reading Math 4. Compare the experimental and theoretical probabilities. Which pair of
The Law of Large probabilities was closer to each other: your individual probabilities or your
Numbers states that class’s probabilities?
as the number of
trials increases, the
5. Suppose each person rolls the die 50 times. Explain how this would affect
experimental probability the experimental probabilities for the class.
gets closer to the
Make a Conjecture
theoretical probability.
6. What can you conclude about the relationship between the number of
experiments in a simulation and the experimental probability?

You can conduct simulations of the outcomes for many problems by using one or
more objects such as dice, coins, marbles, or spinners. The objects you choose should
have the same number of outcomes as the number of possible outcomes of the
problem, and all outcomes should be equally likely.

[Link]/extra_examples Lesson 14-5 Probability Simulations 783

Algebra Activity
Materials dice
• Have students create a probability distribution table to record the number of
times each number comes up.
• Suggest that students repeat the die tosses 100 times for experimental
results that will more closely resemble the theoretical probability.

Lesson 14-5 Probability Simulations 783

PERFORMING Example 3 Simulation
SIMULATIONS In one season, Malcolm made 75% of the field goals he attempted.
a. What could be used to simulate his kicking a field goal? Explain.
In-Class Examples Power
Point® You could use a spinner like the one at the right, where
75% of the spinner represents making a field goal.
3 In the last 30 school days,
Bobbie’s older brother has b. Describe a way to simulate his next 8 attempts.
given her a ride to school Spin the spinner once to simulate a kick. Record the
5 times. result, then repeat this 7 more times.
a. What could be used to
simulate whether Bobbie’s
brother will give her a ride to
school? Bobbie got a ride to Example 4 Theoretical and Experimental Probability
5 1
school on  or  days. You DOGS Ali raises purebred dogs. One of her dogs is expecting a litter of
30 6
four puppies, and Ali would like to figure out the most likely mix of male
could use one side of a die to 1
represent a ride to school. and female puppies. Assume that P(male)  P(female)  .
2

b. Describe a way to simulate a. What objects can be used to model the possible outcomes of the puppies?
whether Bobbie’s brother will Each puppy can be male or female, so there are 2  2  2  2 or 16 possible
Study Tip outcomes for the litter. Use a simulation that also has 2 outcomes for each of
give her a ride to school in 4 events. One possible simulation would be to toss four coins, one for each
Alternative
the next 20 school days. Let Simulation puppy, with heads representing female and tails representing male.
the 1-side of the die equal a ride You could also create a
spinner with two even
to school. Toss the die 20 times b. Find the theoretical probability that there will be two female and two male
parts and spin it 4 times
and record each result. puppies.
to simulate the outcomes
of the puppies. There are 16 possible outcomes, and the number of combinations that have two
Teaching Tip Point out to 6 3
female and two male puppies is 4C2 or 6. So the theoretical probability is  or .
students that this simulation is 16 8
only valid if Ali’s dog gives birth c. The results of a simulation Ali performed are shown in the table below.
to 4 puppies as expected. What is the experimental probability that there will be three male puppies?

4 Use the data in Example 4 to Outcomes Frequency

answer the following 4 female, 0 male 3
questions. 3 female, 1 male 13
a. What is an alternative to using 2 female, 2 male 18
4 coins that could model the 1 female, 3 male 12
possible combinations of the 0 female, 4 male 4
puppies? Sample answer: A
Ali performed 50 trials and 12 of those resulted in three males. So, the
spinner with 16 equal divisions. 12
experimental probability is  or 24%.
50
b. Find the theoretical probabil-
ity that there will be 4 female d. How does the experimental probability compare to the theoretical probability
puppies in a litter. The of a litter with three males?
1
theoretical probability is  . Theoretical probability
16
c. How does the theoretical C ← combinations with 3 male puppies
P(3 males)

4 3
  
← possible outcomes
16
probability that there will be
4
4 females compare with Ali’s
 or 25% Simplify.
16
results? The theoretical proba- The experimental probability, 24%, is very close to the theoretical probability.
bility is a little more than 6% and
the experimental probability is 784 Chapter 14 Probability
6% so they are very close.

Differentiated Instruction
Kinesthetic Allow students to design their own experiments to find
experimental probability, such as finding the probability of tossing a wad
of paper in a wastebasket, the probability of a student being able to do
more than 10 jumping jacks in 10 seconds, and so on.

784 Chapter 14 Probability

 Concept Check 1. Explain why it is useful to carry out an empirical study when calculating
3 Practice/Apply
experimental probabilities.
1 –3. See margin.
2. Analyze the relationship between the theoretical and experimental probability
of an event as the number of trials in a simulation increases.
Study Notebook
3. OPEN ENDED Describe a situation that could be represented by a simulation.
What objects would you use for this experiment? Have students—
4. Tell whether the theoretical probability and the experimental probability of an • complete the definitions/examples
event are sometimes, always, or never the same. sometimes for the remaining terms on their
Vocabulary Builder worksheets for
Guided Practice 5. So far this season, Rita has made 60% of her free throws. Describe a simulation
that could be used to predict the outcome of her next 25 free throws. See margin. Chapter 14.
GUIDED PRACTICE KEY • include any other item(s) that they
6 – 8. See students’ work.
Exercises Examples For Exercises 6–8, roll a die 25 times and record your results. find helpful in mastering the skills
5–7 3 6. Based on your results, what is the probability of rolling a 3?
8–12 4 in this lesson.
7. Based on your results, what is the probability of rolling a 5 or an odd number?
8. Compare your results to the theoretical probabilities.

Application ASTRONOMY For Exercises 9–12, use the following information.

Enrique is writing a report about meteorites and wants to determine the probability Answers
that a meteor reaching Earth’s surface hits land. He knows that 70% of Earth’s
surface is covered by water. He places 7 blue marbles and 3 brown marbles in a bag 1. An empirical study uses more data
to represent hitting water  and hitting land . He draws than a single study, and provides
7 3
10 10 Blue Brown
a marble from the bag, records the color, and then replaces the better calculations of probability.
56 19
marble. The table shows the results of his experiment. 2. As the number of trials increases,
9. See margin. 9. Did Enrique choose an appropriate simulation for his research? Explain. the experimental probabilities
10. What is the theoretical probability that a meteorite reaching Earth’s surface tend toward the theoretical
hits land? 30% probabilities.
11. Based on his results, what is the probability that a meteorite hits land? 3. Sample answer: a survey of
about 0.25 or 25% 100 people voting in a two-person
12. Using the experimental probability, how many of the next 500 meteorites that
strike Earth would you expect to hit land? 125 election where 50% of the people
favor each candidate; 100 coin
tosses
5. Sample answer: 5 marbles of two
Practice and Apply colors where three of the marbles
13. What could you use to simulate the outcome of guessing on 15 true-false are one color to represent making
questions? Sample answer: a coin tossed 15 times a free throw, and the other two
For See
Exercises Examples are a different color to represent
14. There are 12 cans of cola, 8 cans of diet cola, and 4 cans of root beer in a cooler.
13–16 3
What could be used for a simulation determining the probability of randomly missing a free throw. Randomly
17–21, 4
25–31 picking any one type of soft drink? See margin. pick one marble to simulate a free
22–24 1, 2 throw 25 times.
For Exercises 15 and 16, use the following information.
Extra Practice
Central City Mall is randomly giving each shopper one of 12 different gifts during 9. Yes; 70% of the marbles in the
See page 852.
the holidays. 15–16. See margin. bag represent water and 30%
15. What could be used to perform a simulation of this situation? Explain represent land.
your choice. 14. Sample answer: a spinner divided
1
16. How could you use this simulation to model the next 100 gifts handed out? into 3 sections where  represents
2
[Link]/self_check_quiz Lesson 14-5 Probability Simulations 785
1
cola,  represents diet cola, and
3
1
 represents root beer
6
Teacher to Teacher
Ruth Casey Anderson County H.S., Lawrenceburg, KY 15. Sample answer: a coin and a die
since there are 12 possible
“I like to do an activity similar to the one done in Exercises 9–12. I have my outcomes
students toss an inflated globe around the room. Students record whether 16. Sample answer: toss a coin and
the person catching the ball does so with his or her right thumb on land or roll a die 100 times each
on water.”

Lesson 14-5 Probability Simulations 785

 For Exercises 17 and 18, toss 3 coins, one at a time, 25 times and record
your results.
About the Exercises… 17. Based on your results, what is the probability that any two coins will
Organization by Objective show heads? See students’ work.
• Theoretical and Experi- 18. Based on your results, what is the probability that the first and third coins
mental Probability: 22–24 show tails? See students’ work.
19 – 20. See students’ work.
• Performing Simulations: For Exercises 19–21, roll two dice 50 times and record the sums.
13–21, 25–31 19. Based on your results, what is the probability that the sum is 8?
Odd/Even Assignments 20. Based on your results, what is the probability that the sum is 7, or the sum is
Exercises 13–21 are structured greater than 5?
so that students practice the 21. If you roll the dice 25 more times, which sum would you expect to see about
10% of the time? 4 or 9
same concepts whether they
are assigned odd or even CITY PLANNING For Exercises 22–24, use the following information.
problems. The Lewiston City Council sent surveys to randomly selected households to
determine current and future enrollment for the local school district. The results of
Alert! Exercises 36–38 require
the survey are shown in the table.
the use of a graphing
calculator. School Enrollment
(3 years and older enrolled in school)

Assignment Guide Presc Number Enrolled

Kin h
ool

School Level
Basic: 13–24, 32–35, 39–63 Elem dergar t 47
enta en
ry 46
Average: 13–27, 32–35, 39–63 Hig School
h Sc 378
(optional: 36–38) ho
Coll ol 201
ege
Advanced: 19–63 115

22. Find the experimental probability distribution for the number of people enrolled
at each level. See margin.
Answers
23. Based on the survey, what is the probability that a student chosen at random is
22. P(Preschool)  0.060 in elementary school or high school?  0.74 or 74%
P(Kindergarten)  0.058 24. Suppose the school district is expecting school enrollment to increase by 1800
P(Elementary)  0.480 over the next 5 years due to new buildings in the area. Of the new enrollment,
how many will most likely be in kindergarten? 105
P(High School)  0.255
P(College)  0.146 RESTAURANTS For Exercises 25–27, use the following information.
28. MMMMM, MMMMF, MMMFM, A family restaurant gives children a free toy with each children’s meal. There are
eight different toys that are randomly given. There is an equally likely chance of
MMMFF, MMFMM, MMFMF, getting each toy each time. 25. Sample answer: 3 coins 26. See students’ work.
MMFFM, MMFFF, MFMMM, 25. What objects could be used to perform a simulation of this situation?
MFMMF, MFMFM, MFMFF, Animals
Labrador retrievers are the 26. Conduct a simulation until you have one of each toy. Record your results.
MFFMM, MFFMF, MFFFM, MFFFF,
most popular breed of dog 27. Based on your results, how many meals must be purchased so that you get
FMMMM, FMMMF, FMMFM, in the United States. all 8 toys? See students’ work.
FMMFF, FMFMM, FMFMF, Source: American Kennel Club 29–31. See students’ work.
FMFFM, FMFFF, FFMMM, ANIMALS For Exercises 28–31, use the following information.
Refer to Example 4 on page 784. Suppose Ali’s dog is expecting a litter of 5 puppies.
FFMMF, FFMFM, FFMFF, FFFMM,
28. List the possible outcomes of the genders of the puppies. See margin.
FFFMF, FFFFM, FFFFF
29. Perform a simulation and list your results in a table.
32. No; there were 181 heads out of
30. Based on your results, what is the probability that there will be 3 females
the 300 tosses. The experimental and two males in the litter?
probability of heads is about 60%. 31. What is the experimental probability of the litter having at least three
33. Sample answer: Probability can be male puppies?
used to determine the likelihood 786 Chapter 14 Probability
that a medication or treatment will
be successful. Answers should
include the following.
• Experimental probability is
determining probability based
on trials or studies.
• To have the experimental more
closely resemble the theoretical
probability the researches
should perform more trials.

786 Chapter 14 Probability

 NAME ______________________________________________ DATE ____________ PERIOD _____
32. CRITICAL THINKING The captain of a Study Guide andIntervention
Intervention,
14-5 Study Guide and
football team believes that the coin the p. 855 (shown) and p. 856
Probability Simulations
referee uses for the opening coin toss Player 1 2 3 4 5 6 Theoretical and Experimental Probability The probability used to describe
gives an advantage to one team. The Heads
events mathematically is called theoretical probability. For example, the mathematical
1 1
38 31 29 27 26 30 probability of rolling a 4 with a number cube is  , or P(4)
 . Experimental probability
6 6
referee has players toss the coin 50 times is the ratio of the number of times an outcome occurs in an experiment to the total number
of events or trials, known as the relative frequency.
each and record their results. Based on Tails 12 19 21 23 24 20
frequency of an outcome
Experimental probability    
total number of trials
the results, do you think the coin is
fair? Explain your reasoning. See margin. Example 1 Matt recorded that it rained 8 times in November and snowed
3 times. The other days, it was sunny. There are 30 days in November. Suppose
Matt uses these results to predict November’s weather next year. What is the
probability that a day in November will be sunny?
frequency of outcome
Experimental Probability

33. WRITING IN MATH Answer the question that was posed at the beginning of total number of trials
(30  8  3)
the lesson. See margin.


19
30


63.3%
30
How can probability simulations be used in health care? The probability that it will be sunny on a day in November is 63.3%.

Example 2 A football team noticed that 9 of the last 20 coin tosses to choose
Include the following in your answer: which team would receive the ball first resulted in tails. What is the experimental
probability of the coin landing on tails? What is the theoretical probability?
• a few sentences explaining experimental probability, and Experimental Probability

frequency of outcome
total number of trials

• an explanation of why an experimental probability of 75% found in 400 trials


number of tails
total number of tosses

is more reliable than an experimental probability of 75% found in 50 trials. 9


45%
20
In this case, the experimental probability that a coin toss will be tails is 45%. If the coin is
fair, the mathematical probability is 50%

Standardized 34. Ramón tossed two coins and rolled a die. What is the probability that he tossed Exercises

Test Practice two tails and rolled a 3? D A math class decided to test whether a die is fair, that is, whether
the experimental probability equals the theoretical probability.
1: 1
3: 4
2: 15
4: 13
The results for 100 rolls are shown at the right. Use the 5: 15 6: 42
1 1 5 1 information for Exercises 1–3.
A  B  C  D 

Lesson 14-5
4 6 12 24 1. What is the theoretical probability of rolling a 6? 16.7%
2. What is the experimental probability of rolling a 6? 42%

35. If a coin is tossed three times, what is the probability that the results will be 3. Is the die fair? Explain your reasoning.
Probably not; theoretical probability  experimental probability.
heads exactly one time? B NAME ______________________________________________ DATE ____________ PERIOD _____

A
2
 B
3
 C
1
 D
1

Skills
14-5 Practice,
Practice (Average)
p. 857 and
3 8 5 8 Practice,
Probabilityp. 858 (shown)
Simulations
For Exercises 1–3, place 5 red, 4 yellow, and 7 green marbles in a box. Randomly
draw two marbles from the box, record each color, and then return the marbles to
Graphing SIMULATION For Exercises 36–38, use the following
PROGRAM: SIMULATE
the box. Repeat this procedure 50 times.

1. Based on your results, what is the experimental probability of selecting two yellow
Calculator information. marbles? Answers will vary. The theoretical probability is 0.05.
:Disp “ENTER THE NUMBER”
When you are performing an experiment that involves
:Disp “OF POSSIBLE” 2. Based on your results, what is the experimental probability of selecting a green marble
a large number of trials that cannot be simulated using and a yellow marble? Answers will vary. The theoretical probability is
:Disp “OUTCOMES” about 0.233.
an object like a coin or a spinner, you can use the
:Input P 3. Compare your results to the theoretical probabilities. The theoretical probability in
random number generator function on a graphing Exercise 1 is 0.05, and in Exercise 2 is about 0.233.
:Disp “ENTER THE NUMBER”
calculator. The TI-83 Plus program at the right will 4. Color blindness occurs in 4% of the male population. What could you use to simulate this
:Disp “OF TRIALS” situation? Sample answer: a deck of playing cards in which 1 card is red
perform T trials by generating random numbers and 24 are black
:Input T
between 1 and P, the number of possible outcomes. SCHOOL CURRICULUM For Exercises 5–8, use the following information.
:For(N, 1, T) Laurel Woods High randomly selected students
36–38. See students’ 36. Run the program to simulate 50 trials of an event :randInt(1, P)→S for a survey to determine the most important
school issues among the student body. The Issue
School Issues
Number Ranking

work. that has 15 outcomes. Record your results. :Disp S school wants to develop a curriculum that
addresses these issues. The survey results are Grades
Issue Most Important
37
shown in the table.
37. What is the experimental probability of displaying :Pause School Standards
Popularity
17
84
5. Find the experimental probability
the number 10? :End distribution of the importance of each issue. Dating 76

P(Grades)  0.119, Violence 68

P(School Standards)  0.055, Drugs, including tobacco 29
38. Repeat the experiment several times. Find the P(Popularity)  0.270,
P(Dating)  0.244, P(Violence)  0.219, P(Drugs)  0.093
experimental probability of displaying the number 10. 6. Based on the survey, what is the experimental probability that a student chosen at
Has the probability changed from the probability found random thinks the most important issue is grades or school standards? about 0.174

in Exercise 37? Explain why or why not. 7. The enrollment in the 9th and 10th grades at Laurel Woods High is 168. If their
opinions are reflective of those of the school as a whole, how many of them would you
expect to have chosen popularity as the most important issue? about 45

ENTERTAINMENT For Exercises 39–41, use the following information and the 8. Suppose the school develops a curriculum incorporating the top three issues. What is the
probability that a student selected at random will think the curriculum addresses the
most important issue at school? about 0.733
graphing calculator program above.
A CD changer contains 5 CDs with 14 songs each. When “Random” is selected, each NAME ______________________________________________ DATE ____________ PERIOD _____

CD is equally likely to be chosen as each song. 39–41. See students’ work. Reading
14-5 Readingto
to Learn
Learn Mathematics
Mathematics, p. 859 ELL
Probability Simulations
39. Use the program SIMULATE to perform a simulation of randomly playing 40 songs Pre-Activity How can probability simulations be used in health care?
from the 5 CDs. (Hint: Number the songs sequentially from 1, CD 1 track 1, to Read the introduction to Lesson 14-5 at the top of page 782 in your
textbook.
70, CD 5 track 14.) • What does success mean in this study?
condition improved
40. Do the experimental probabilities for your simulation support the statement that • Since there were 100 people in each study group, what does each number
in the chart represent?
each CD is equally likely to be chosen? Explain. percent of people in the study group

41. Based on your results, what is the probability that the first three songs played Reading the Lesson
are on the third disc? For each situation described below, choose the manipulative you would use to
simulate the problem. Explain your choice.

Situation Simulation method

Lesson 14-5 Probability Simulations 787
1. 58% of drivers (commercial and private • die
vehicles) have a cell phone in their car. • coins
Simulate whether or not the next • marbles
10 drivers you meet on the road will • spinner
have a cell phone. Sample answer: spinner; The spinner
could be in two parts, one using 58% of
NAME ______________________________________________ DATE ____________ PERIOD _____
the space, the other using 42%. The
spinner landing in the 58% region would
Enrichment,
14-5 Enrichment p. 860 indicate a cell-phone user.

2. A restaurant has six types of coloring • die

The Work Problem and Similar Right Triangles books to give away with children’s • coins
meals. Simulate finding which coloring • marbles
“The work problem” has been included in algebra books are given away with the next • spinner
textbooks for a very long time. In older books, 15 children’s meals that are ordered. Sample answer: number cube; Let each
the people in the problem always seemed to be number represent one type of coloring
digging ditches. book. Roll the cube 15 times, and record
x
If Olivia can dig a ditch in x hours and y the numbers that are rolled.
George can dig the same ditch in y hours, z
how long will it take them to dig the ditch
if they work together? m n

You have learned a way to solve this type of problem using rational equations. It can also be
solved using a geometric model that uses two overlapping right triangles. Helping You Remember
Lesson 14-5

In the drawing, the length x is Olivia’s time. The length y is George’s time. The answer to the 3. In your own words, explain the difference between theoretical probability and
problem is the length of the segment z. The distance m  n can be any convenient length. experimental probability.
Theoretical probability describes what should happen, and experimental
Solve each problem. probability describes what has been observed.
1. Solve the work problem for x
6 and y
3 by drawing a diagram and measuring.
1 h  0.5 cm z  2 hours
Students’ scales
ill

Lesson 14-5 Probability Simulations 787

 Maintain Your Skills
4 Assess Mixed Review For Exercises 42–44, use the probability distribution Computers per
for the random variable X, the number of computers
Open-Ended Assessment per household. (Lesson 14-4)
Household
X  Number
Modeling Place students in 42. 0.579  0.276  42. Show that the probability distribution is valid. of Computers
P(X)
groups and have them 0.107  0.038  1 43. If a household is chosen at random, what is the 0 0.579
brainstorm ways to simulate 8 probability that it has at least 2 computers? 0.145
1 0.276
possible outcomes in a 44. Determine the probability of randomly selecting 2 0.107
probability experiment. After a household with no more than one computer.
0.855 3 0.038
brainstorming, have students Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce
select a method and build the
actual simulator. For Exercises 45–47, use the following information.
A jar contains 18 nickels, 25 dimes, and 12 quarters. Three coins are randomly
selected. Find each probability. (Lesson 14-3)
Assessment Options 125
45. picking three dimes, replacing each after it is drawn 
Quiz (Lesson 14-5) is available 1331 20
46. a nickel, then a quarter, then a dime without replacing the coins 
on p. 876 of the Chapter 14 583 80
47. 2 dimes and a quarter, without replacing the coins, if order does not matter 
Resource Masters. 583

Solve each equation. (Lesson 12-9)

2a  3 12 r2 50 x2 x3 1
48.   2
 5 49.   
14 6, 8 50.   
 3
a3 a3 r7 7r x x6 x
2x  3 x x3 9 5n 1 1 a2 2 7
51.   
  52.   
5  53.   

7 2 14 4 n1 n 4 a2 a2 3
2
1, 
5
54. CONSTRUCTION To paint his house, Lonnie needs to purchase an extension
ladder that reaches at least 24 feet off the ground. Ladder manufacturers
recommend the angle formed by the ladder and the ground be no more than
75°. What is the shortest ladder he could buy to reach 24 feet safely? (Lesson 11-7)
at least 25 feet long
Determine whether the following side measures would form a right triangle.
(Lesson 11-4)
55. 5, 7, 9 no , 9, 15 yes
56. 334 57. 36, 86.4, 93.6 yes

Solve each equation. Check your solutions. (Lesson 9-6)

3
58. (x  6)2
4 4, 8 59. x2  121
22x 11 60. 4x2  12x  9
0 
2
61. 25x2  20x
4 62. 49x2  84x  36
0 63. 180x  100
81x2
2 6 10
  
5 7 9

America Counts!
It is time to complete your project. Use the information and data
you have gathered about populations to prepare a brochure or
Web page. Be sure to identify the state you have chosen for this
project. Include graphs, tables, and/or calculations in the
presentation.
[Link]/webquest

788 Chapter 14 Probability

788 Chapter 14 Probability

 Study Guide
and Review
Vocabulary and Concept Check
Vocabulary and
combination (p. 762 ) experimental probability (p. 782) mutually exclusive (p. 771) relative frequency (p. 782)
complements (p. 771) factorial (p. 755) network (p. 759) sample space (p. 754)
Concept Check
compound event (p. 769) finite graph (p. 759) node (p. 759) simple event (p. 769)
dependent events (p. 770) Fundamental Counting Principle permutation (p. 760) simulation (p. 783)
• This alphabetical list of
edge (p. 759) (p. 755) probability distribution (p. 777) theoretical probability (p. 782) vocabulary terms in Chapter 14
empirical study (p. 783) inclusive (p. 771) probability histogram (p. 778) traceable (p. 759) includes a page reference
event (p. 754) independent events (p. 769) random variable (p. 777) tree diagram (p. 754) where each term was
introduced.
Choose the word or term that best completes each sentence.
• Assessment A vocabulary
1. The arrangement or listing in which order is important is called a (combination,
permutation ).
test/review for Chapter 14 is
2. The notation 10! refers to a (prime factor, factorial ).
available on p. 874 of the
3. Rolling one die and then another die are (dependent, independent ) events.
Chapter 14 Resource Masters.
4. The sum of probabilities of complements equals (0, 1 ).
5. Randomly drawing a coin from a bag and then drawing another coin are dependent
events if the coins (are, are not ) replaced. Lesson-by-Lesson
6. Events that cannot occur at the same time are (inclusive, mutually exclusive ). Review
7. The sum of the probabilities in a probability distribution equals (0, 1 ).
8. (Experimental, Theoretical ) probabilities are precise and predictable.
For each lesson,
• the main ideas are
summarized,
• additional examples review
concepts, and
14-1 Counting Outcomes • practice exercises are provided.
See pages Concept Summary
754–758.
• Use a tree diagram to make a list of possible outcomes. Vocabulary
• If an event M can occur m ways and is followed by an event N that can PuzzleMaker
occur n ways, the event M followed by event N can occur m  n ways.
Example When Jerri packs her lunch, she can choose to make a turkey or roast beef sandwich ELL The Vocabulary PuzzleMaker
on French or sourdough bread. She also can pack an apple or an orange. Draw a tree software improves students’ mathematics
diagram to show the number of different ways Jerri can select these items. vocabulary using four puzzle formats—
Meat Bread Fruit Possible crossword, scramble, word search using a
Lunches word list, and word search using clues.
Apple TFA Students can work on a computer screen
French
Turkey Orange TFO or from a printed handout.
Apple TSA
Sourdough
Orange TSO
French Apple RFA MindJogger
Roast Beef Orange RFO Videoquizzes
Apple RSA
Sourdough
Orange RSO
ELL MindJogger Videoquizzes
There are 8 different ways for Jerri to select these items. provide an alternative review of concepts
presented in this chapter. Students work
[Link]/vocabulary_review Chapter 14 Study Guide and Review 789 in teams in a game show format to gain
points for correct answers. The questions
are presented in three rounds.
TM
Round 1 Concepts (5 questions)
Have students look through the chapter to make sure they have Round 2 Skills (4 questions)
included examples in their Foldables to illustrate outcomes, Round 3 Problem Solving (4 questions)
permutations, combinations, and compound events.
For more information
Encourage students to refer to their Foldables while completing
about Foldables, see
the Study Guide and Review and to use them in preparing for the
Teaching Mathematics
Chapter Test.
with Foldables.

Chapter 14 Study Guide and Review 789

Study Guide and Review Chapter 14 Study Guide and Review

Exercises Determine the number of outcomes for each event.

See Examples 1–3 on pages 754 and 755.
9. Samantha wants to watch 3 videos one rainy afternoon. She has a choice
of 3 comedies, 4 dramas, and 3 musicals. 720
10. Marquis buys 4 books, one from each category. He can choose from
12 mystery, 8 science fiction, 10 classics, and 5 biographies. 4800
11. The Jackson Jackals and the Westfield Tigers are going to play a best
three-out-of-five games baseball tournament. 20

14-2 Permutations and Combinations

See pages Concept Summary
760–767.
n!
• In a permutation, the order of objects is important. nPr

(n  r)!
n!
• In a combination, the order of objects is not important. nCr
 
(n  r)!r!
Examples 1 Find 12C8. 2 Find 9P4.
12! 9!
12C8

(12  8)!8! 9P4

(9  4)!
12! 9!



4!8! 5!
12  11  10  9 987654321



4! 54321

495
3024

Exercises Evaluate each expression. See Examples 1, 2, and 4 on pages 760–762.

12. 4P2 12 13. 8C3 56 14. 4C4 1
15. (7C1)(6C3) 140 16. (7P3)(7P2) 8820 17. (3C2)(4P1) 12

14-3 Probability of Compound Events

See pages Concept Summary
769–776.
• For independent events, use P(A and B)
P(A)  P(B).
• For dependent events, use P(A and B)
P(A)  P(B following A).
• For mutually exclusive events, use P(A or B)
P(A)  P(B).
• For inclusive events, use P(A or B)
P(A)  P(B)  P(A and B).
Example A box contains 8 red chips, 6 blue chips, and 12 white chips. Three chips are
randomly drawn from the box and not replaced. Find P(red, white, blue).
8 ← number of red chips
First chip: P(red)
  
← total number of chips
26
12 ← number of white chips
Second chip: P(white)
  
← number of chips remaining
25
6 ← number of blue chips
Third chip: P(blue)
  
← number of chips remaining
24
790 Chapter 14 Probability

790 Chapter 14 Probability

 Chapter 14 Study Guide and Review Study Guide and Review

P(red, white, blue)
P(red)  P(white)  P(blue)



Answer


8 12 6

    
26 25 24 26. Extracurricular Activities
576

 or 2
1
0.4
15,600 325

Probability
0.3
Exercises A bag of colored paper clips contains 30 red clips, 22 blue clips, and 0.2
22 green clips. Find each probability if three clips are drawn randomly from the 0.1
bag and are not replaced. See Example 2 on page 770.
605 0
18.  18. P(blue, red, green) 19. P(red, red, blue) 20. P(red, green, not blue) 0 1 2 3 4
16,206
X  Number of Activities
1595
19.  One card is randomly drawn from a standard deck of 52 cards. Find each
32,412 probability. See Examples 3 and 4 on pages 771 and 772.
1375 1 1 4
20.  21. P(diamond or club)  22. P(heart or red)  23. P(10 or spade) 
16,206 2 2 13

14-4 Probability Distributions

See pages Concept Summary
777–781.
Probability distributions have the following properties.
• For each value of X, 0 P(X) 1.
• The sum of the probabilities of each value of X is 1.
Example A local cable provider asked its subscribers how many televisions they had in
their homes. The results of their survey are shown in the probability distribution.
a. Show that the probability distribution is valid. Televisions per Household
For each value of X, the probability is greater than X  Number
or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 1. Probability
of Televisions
0.18  0.36  0.34  0.08  0.04
1, so the 1 0.18
probabilities add up to 1.
2 0.36
b. If a household is selected at random, what is the
3 0.34
probability that it has fewer than 4 televisions?
4 0.08
P(X  4)
P(X
1)  P(X
2)  P(X
3)

0.18  0.36  0.34 5 0.04

0.88
24. 0.04  0.12  0.37  0.30  0.17  1
Exercises The table shows the probability Extracurricular Activities
distribution for the number of extracurricular
X  Number
activities in which students at Boardwalk High Probability
of Activities
School participate. See Example 2 on page 778.
0 0.04
24. Show that the probability distribution is valid.
25. If a student is chosen at random, what is the 1 0.12
probability that the student participates in 2 0.37
1 to 3 activities? 0.79 or 79% 3 0.30
26. Make a probability histogram of the data.
4 0.17
See margin.

Chapter 14 Study Guide and Review 791

Chapter 14 Study Guide and Review 791

 • Extra Practice, see pages 851–852.
Study Guide and Review • Mixed Problem Solving, see page 866.

Answer (page 793) 14-5 Probability Simulations

See pages Concept Summary
782–788.
21. Four Coins Tossed • Theoretical probability describes expected outcomes, while experimental
probabilities describe tested outcomes.
x  Number
of Heads Probability • Simulations are used to perform experiments that would be difficult or
impossible to perform in real life.
0 0.0625
1 0.25 Example A group of 3 coins are tossed.
2 0.375
a. Find the theoretical probability that there will be 2 heads and 1 tail.
3 0.25 Each coin toss can be heads or tails, so there are 2  2  2 or 8 possible outcomes.
4 0.0625 There are 3 possible combinations of 2 heads and one tail, HHT, HTH, or THH. So,
the theoretical probability is 3.
8

b. The results of a simulation in which three Outcomes Frequency

coins are tossed ten times are shown in the
table. What is the experimental probability 3 heads, 0 tails 1
that there will be 1 head and 2 tails? 2 heads, 1 tail 4
Of the 10 trials, 3 resulted in 1 head and 2 tails, 1 head, 2 tails 3
3
so the experimental probability is  or 30%. 0 heads, 3 tails 2
10

c. Compare the theoretical probability of 2 heads

and 1 tail and the experimental probability of
2 heads and 1 tail.
3
The theoretical probability is 3 or 37.5%, while the experimental probability is 
8 10
or 30%. The probabilities are close.

Exercises While studying flower colors in

biology class, students are given the Punnett R r
square at the right. The Punnett square shows R RR Rr
that red parent plant flowers (Rr) produce red r Rr rr
flowers (RR and Rr) and pink flowers (rr).
See Examples 1, 3, and 4 on pages 782 and 784.
27. If 5 flowers are produced, find the theoretical probability that there will be 4 red
flowers and 1 pink flower. 39.6%
28. Sample 28. Describe items that the students could use to simulate the colors of 5 flowers.
answer: 29. The results of a simulation of flowers are Outcomes Frequency
There are shown in the table. What is the experimental
6 possible probability that there will be 3 red flowers 5 red, 0 pink 15
outcomes. and 2 pink flowers? 28.8% 4 red, 1 pink 30
So, you could
3 red, 2 pink 23
use a die.
2 red, 3 pink 7
1 red, 4 pink 4
0 red, 5 pink 1

792 Chapter 14 Probability

792 Chapter 14 Probability

 Practice Test

Vocabulary and Concepts

Assessment Options
1. Seven students lining up to buy tickets for a school play is an example of a
(permutation, combination). Vocabulary Test A vocabulary
test/review for Chapter 14 can be
2. Rolling a die and recording the result 25 times would be used to find
(theoretical, experimental ) probability.
found on p. 874 of the Chapter 14
Resource Masters.
3. A ( random variable , probability distribution) is the numerical outcome of an event.
Chapter Tests There are six
Chapter 14 Tests and an Open-
Skills and Applications Ended Assessment task available
There are two roads from Ashville to Bakersville, four roads from Bakersville to in the Chapter 14 Resource Masters.
Clifton, and two roads from Clifton to Derry.
4. Draw a tree diagram showing the possible routes from Ashville to Derry. See pp. 795A–795B. Chapter 14 Tests
5. How many different routes are there from Ashville to Derry? 16 Form Type Level Pages
Determine whether each situation involves a permutation or a combination. Then 1 MC basic 861–862
determine the number of possible arrangements. 2A MC average 863–864
6. Six students in a class meet in a room that has nine chairs. combination; 84
2B MC average 865–866
7. The top four finishers in a race with ten participants. permutation; 5040
2C FR average 867–868
8. A class has 15 girls and 19 boys. A committee is formed with two girls and two
boys, each with a separate responsibility. permutation; 71,820 2D FR average 869–870
A bag contains 4 red, 6 blue, 4 yellow, and 2 green marbles. Once a marble is 3 FR advanced 871–872
selected, it is not replaced. Find each probability. MC = multiple-choice questions
1 1
9. P(blue, green)  10. P(yellow, yellow)  FR = free-response questions
20 1 20 3
11. P(red, blue, yellow)  12. P(blue, red, not green) 
35 35 Open-Ended Assessment
The spinner is spun, and a die is rolled. Find each probability. Performance tasks for Chapter 14
1 1
13. P(yellow, 4)  14. P(red, even)  can be found on p. 873 of the
48 1 8
15. P(purple or white, not prime)  16. P(green, even or less than 5) 5 Chapter 14 Resource Masters. A
8 48
During a magic trick, a magician randomly selects a card from a standard sample scoring rubric for these
deck of 52 cards. Without replacing it, the magician has a member of the tasks appears on p. A22.
audience randomly select a card. Find each probability.
13 1 Unit 5 Test A unit test/review
17. P(club, heart)  18. P(black 7, diamond) 
204 7 102 8
19. P(queen or red, jack of spades)  20. P(black 10, ace or heart)  can be found on pp. 881–882 of
663 663
the Chapter 14 Resource Masters.
The table shows the number of ways four coins can land heads up when Four Coins Tossed
they are tossed at the same time. End-of-Year Tests A Second
Number of Possible
21. Set up a probability distribution of the possible outcomes. See margin. Heads Outcomes Semester Test for Chapters 7–14
22. Find the probability that there will be no heads. 6.25% and a Final Test for Chapters 1–14
0 1
23. Find the probability that there will be at least two heads. 68.75% can be found on pp. 883–892 of
1 4
24. Find the probability that there will be two tails. 37.5% the Chapter 14 Resource Masters.
2 6
25. STANDARDIZED TEST PRACTICE Two numbers a and b can be arranged 3 4
in two different orders, a, b and b, a. In how many ways can three numbers
be arranged? D 4 1
ExamView® Pro
A 3 B 4 C 5 D 6
Use the networkable
[Link]/chapter_test Chapter 14 Practice Test 793 ExamView® Pro to:
• Create multiple versions
of tests.
• Create modified tests for
Portfolio Suggestion
Inclusion students.
Introduction There are countless applications for probabilities outside • Edit existing questions and
the classroom. Some that have been discussed in this chapter include add your own questions.
predicting the weather, predicting the sex of puppies, and so on. • Use built-in state curriculum
Ask Students Find an example of a way that probabilities are used correlations to create tests
outside the classroom. Describe how the probability is calculated, and aligned with state standards.
what it is used to predict. Place your descriptions in your portfolio. • Change English tests to
Spanish and vice versa.
Chapter 14 Practice Test 793
 Standardized
Test Practice

These two pages contain practice 5. If a child is equally likely to be born a boy or
Part 1 Multiple Choice a girl, what is the probability that a family of
questions in the various formats 3 children will contain exactly one boy?
that can be found on the most Record your answers on the answer sheet (Lesson 7-5) C
frequently given standardized provided by your teacher or on a sheet of
1 1
paper. A  B 
tests. 8 4
3 1
1. If the average of a and b is 20, and the average C  D 
8 2
A practice answer sheet for these of a, b, and c is 25, then what is the value of c?
two pages can be found on p. A1 (Prerequisite Skill) D
6. What is the value of 52? (Lesson 8-2) C
of the Chapter 14 Resource Masters. A 10 B 15 1
A 25 B 
C D 25
NAME DATE PERIOD 25 35 1
Standardized
14 TestPractice
Standardized Test Practice C 
25
D 
5
Student Recording
Student Record Sheet,
Sheet (Use with pages 794–795 of p. A1Edition.)
the Student

Part 1 Multiple Choice

Select the best answer from the choices given and fill in the corresponding oval.
2. The volume of a cube is 27 cubic inches. 7. What are the solutions of x2  x
20?
1 A B C D 4 A B C D 7 A B C D Its total surface area, in square inches, is (Lesson 9-4) D
2 A B C D 5 A B C D 8 A B C D (Lesson 3-8) D
A 4, 5 B 2, 10
63.
3 A B C D 6 A B C D 9 A B C D

A 9. B
Answers

C 2, 10 D 4, 5
Part 2 Short Response/Grid In
C 183. D 54.
Solve the problem and write your answer in the blank.
For Questions 13–15, also enter your answer by writing each number or symbol in
a box. Then fill in the corresponding oval for that number or symbol. 8. Two airplanes are flying at the same altitude.
10 13 14 15 One plane is two miles west and two miles
11 .
/
.
0
/
.
0
.
0
.
/
.
0
/
.
0
.
0
.
/
.
0
/
.
0
.
0
3. A truck travels 50 miles from Oakton to north of an airport. The other plane is seven
12
1
2
3
1
2
3
1
2
3
1
2
3
1
2
3
1
2
3
1
2
3
1
2
3
1
2
3
1
2
3
1
2
3
1
2
3
Newton in exactly 1 hour. When the truck is miles west and eight miles north of the same
13 (grid in)
4
5
6
4
5
6
4
5
6
4
5
6
4
5
6
4
5
6
4
5
6
4
5
6
4
5
6
4
5
6
4
5
6
4
5
6
halfway between Oakton and Newton, a car airport. How many miles apart are the
leaves Oakton and travels at 60 miles per hour.
7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

airplanes? (Lesson 11-4) B

8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
14 (grid in) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

15 (grid in) How many miles has the car traveled when
the truck reaches Newton? (Lesson 3-8) B A 2.8 B 7.8
Part 3 Extended Response
Record your answers for Questions 16–17 on the back of this paper. A 25 B 30 C 10.6 D 11.0
C 50 D 60
9. A certain password consists of three
characters, and each character is a letter of
the alphabet. Each letter can be used more
4. Which equation would best represent the
than once. How many different passwords
graphed data? (Lesson 5-7) A
are possible? (Lesson 14-1) D
Table-Tennis Ball Bounce
A 78 B 2600
Bounce Height (cm)

60
Additional Practice 50
C 15,600 D 17,576
See pp. 879–880 in the Chapter 14 40
Resource Masters for additional 30
20
standardized test practice.
10 Test-Taking Tip
0 20 40 60 80
Drop Height (cm) If you are allowed to write in your test booklet, underline
key words, do calculations, sketch diagrams, cross out
1 answer choices as you eliminate them, and mark any
A y
x  15 B y
2x  15 questions that you skip. But do not make any marks on
2
1
C y
2x D y
x the answer sheet except your answers.
2
794 Chapter 14 Probability

ExamView® Pro
Special banks of standardized test
questions similar to those on the SAT,
ACT, TIMSS 8, NAEP 8, and Algebra 1
End-of-Course tests can be found on
this CD-ROM.

794 Chapter 14 Probability

 Preparing for Standardized Tests
For test-taking strategies and more
practice, see pages 867– 884.

15. An eight-sided die numbered 1–8 is rolled Evaluating Extended

Part 2 Short Response/Grid In 50 times during the span of a board game. If
a 7 is rolled twelve times, what is the Response Questions
Record your answers on the answer sheet theoretical probability of rolling a number
provided by your teacher or on a sheet of
Extended Response questions
other than 7? (Lesson 14-5) 7/8
paper. are graded by using a multilevel
rubric that guides you in
10. What are the coordinates of the point of Part 3 Extended Response assessing a student’s knowledge
intersection of the lines represented by the
equations x  4y
0 and 2x  3y
11?
of a particular concept.
Record your answers on a sheet of paper.
(Lesson 7-2) (4, 1) Show your work. Goal: Count outcomes and find
1 2 16. The histogram shows the number of sales a probability.
 
11. Is 4 x    1
4x2  4x true for all values
2 DVD World has made during one weekend
of x, some values of x, or no values of x? of business. (Lesson 13-3) Sample Scoring Rubric: The
(Lesson 8-8) all following rubric is a sample
Sales at DVD World
80
scoring device. You may wish to
12. Triangle ABC has sides of length a
5, add more detail to this sample to
70 65
b
7, and c
74 . What is the measure, 60 58
meet your individual scoring
in degrees, of the angle opposite side c?
Frequency

50
(Lesson 11-4) 90° 40 needs.
40
30 25
13. All seven-digit telephone numbers in a town 20 16 Score Criteria
13
begin with the same three digits. Of the last 10 4 A correct solution that is supported
four digits in any given phone number, 0
by well-developed, accurate

0+
10

0
neither the first nor the last digit can be 0.
$2

$3

$4

$5

$5
explanations
-$

0–

0–

0–

0–
$0

How many telephone numbers are available

$1

$2

$3

$4
in this town? (Lesson 14-2) 8100 Sales 3 A generally correct solution, but
a. What was the total number of sales may contain minor flaws in
14. In the board game shown below, you move during the weekend? 217 reasoning or computation
your game piece along the arrows from 2 A partially correct interpretation
square to square. To determine which b. In what measurement class does the
median occur? $20-$30 and/or solution to the problem
direction to move your game piece, you roll a
number cube with sides numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, c. Describe the distribution of the data. 1 A correct solution with no
5, and 6. If you roll 1 or 2, you move your See margin. supporting evidence or explanation
game piece one space to the left. If you roll 3, 17. At WackyWorld Pizza, the Random Special
4, 5, or 6, you move your game piece one
0 An incorrect solution indicating no
is a random selection of two different
square to the right. What is the probability toppings on a large cheese pizza. The
mathematical understanding of
that you will reach the goal within two turns? available toppings are pepperoni, sausage, the concept or task, or no solution
(Lesson 14-3) 4/9 onion, mushrooms, and green peppers. is given
(Lessons 14-2 and 14-3)
Goal
a. How many different Random Specials Answer
are possible? Show how you found your
Lose Lose
answer. See margin. 17a. 10 Random Specials are
Turn Turn
possible.
b. If you order the Random Special, what
is the probability that it will have You can list all of the combina-
mushrooms? 2 tions, using letters for each
5
c. If you order the Random Special, what is topping.
Your Game Piece the probabililty that it will have neither
onion nor green peppers? 3 PS PO PM PG
10 SO SM SG
[Link]/standardized_test Chapter 14 Standardized Test Practice 795
OM OG
MG
Answers There are 10 possible
combinations.
16c. Sample answer: Sales at DVD World were mostly between $10 and $40 with the majority
coming in the $20–$30 range. The data are somewhat symmetrical with a spike in the
$50+ range and there are no gaps.

Chapter 14 Standardized Test Practice 795

 Pages 756–758, Lesson 14-1 9. English Math Science Outcomes
4. Spin 1 Spin 2 Spin 3 Outcomes A AAA
A B AAB
R RRR C AAC
B RRB A
R ABA
Y RRY B B
A ABB
G RRG C ABC
R RBR
B RBB A ACA
B C B ACB
Y RBY
G RBG C ACC
R
R RYR A BAA
B RYB A B BAB
Y
Y RYY C BAC
G RYG A BBA
R RGR B B B BBB
B RGB C BBC
G
Y RGY
A BCA
G RGG C B
R BRR BCB
C BCC
B BRB
R A
Y BRY CAA
G BRG A B CAB
R BBR C CAC
B BBB A CBA
B
Y BBY C B B CBB
B G BBG C CBC
R BYR A
BYB CCA
B C B
Additional Answers for Chapter 14

Y CCB
Y BYY C CCC
G BYG
R BGR 10.
B BGB Printer CD-M1-P
G Monitor 1
Y BGY CD-ROM Scanner CD-M1-S
G BGG Printer CD-M2-P
R YRR Monitor 2
Scanner CD-M2-S
B YRB Printer CDR-M1-P
R Monitor 1
Y YRY
CD recorder Scanner CDR-M1-S
G YRG
R Printer CDR-M2-P
YBR Monitor 2
B YBB Scanner CDR-M2-S
B Printer DVD-M1-P
Y YBY Monitor 1
G YBG Scanner DVD-M1-S
Y DVD
R YYR Printer DVD-M2-P
Monitor 2
Y B YYB Scanner DVD-M2-S
Y YYY
G YYG
R YGR Page 768, Reading Mathematics
B YGB
G
Y YGY 1. Sample answer: Yes; Combine can mean placing
G YGG many things together, as you do in a combination. A
R GRR mutation is a change in genes and the order in which
B GRB
R they appear as in a permutation.
Y GRY
G GRG 2. Sample answer: Both permutations and combinations
R GBR
B GBB involve selecting items. However, a permutation
B considers the order of the selected items.
Y GBY
G G GBG
R GYR 3. Sample answer:
Y B GYB factorial—the product of all the positive integers from 1
Y GYY
G GYG to n—symbol n!
R GGR factor—any of the numbers or symbols in mathematics
B GGB
G
Y GGY that when multiplied together form a product
G GGG factorization—the operation of resolving a quantity into
factors
The meanings all involve products.
4. probability—the quality or state of being probable;
something (as an event or circumstance) that is
probable
probus—upright, liberal, generous
probare—to test, approve, prove
Sample answer: The words all involve something
being true or approved.
795A Chapter 14 Additional Answers
Pages 779–781, Lesson 14-4 19. 0.35
4. 1 2 3 4 5 6 0.3
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0.25
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0.2

P(X )
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0.15
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0.1
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
0.05
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0
10. RRR, RRB, RBR, RBB, BRR, BRB, BBR, BBB

Hi

Ad lor’s egre
Ba
As
So

So
gh i g h

ch
so
me

me o o l ool

va
1 9 27

e
c i a e ge
11. P(X
0)
 , P (X
1)
 , P(X
2)
 ,

nc D e g
S
H

Co
ch S c h

ed
t e’
64 64 64

ll

sD

De e
27
P (X
3)


gr
64

re
ee
e
12. 32
64 20. Sample answer: Add the values for the bars
27
24 64 representing bachelor’s and advanced degrees.
P(X )

64
16
21. No; 0.221  0.043  0.136  0.126  0.065
0.591.
64 The sum of the probabilities does not equal 1.
8 3
1 1 1 1

Additional Answers for Chapter 14

64
64 64 23a. P(X
1)
 , P(X
2)
 , P (X
3)
 ,
2 4 8
1
0 1 2 3 P(X
4)

X = Blue 16
1
13. No; it is more probable to spin blue than red. 23b. 
16
24. Sample answer: A pet store owner could use
probability distributions to plan sales and special
events. Answers should include the following.
• Determine the probability of each outcome of an
event and list them in a table.
• The owner could look at the probability of a customer
owning more than one pet and create special
discounts for larger purchases.

Page 793, Practice Test

4. Derry–1 A-B1-C1-D1
Clifton-1
Derry–2 A-B1-C1-D2
Derry–1 A-B1-C2-D1
Clifton-2
Derry–2 A-B1-C2-D2
Bakersville-1 Derry–1 A-B1-C3-D1
Clifton-3 Derry–2 A-B1-C3-D2
Derry–1 A-B1-C4-D1
Clifton-4
Derry–2 A-B1-C4-D2
Ashville
Clifton-1 Derry–1 A-B2-C1-D1
Derry–2 A-B2-C1-D2
Clifton-2 Derry–1 A-B2-C2-D1
Bakersville-2 Derry–2 A-B2-C2-D2
Clifton-3 Derry–1 A-B2-C3-D1
Derry–2 A-B2-C3-D2
Clifton-4 Derry–1 A-B2-C4-D1
Derry–2 A-B2-C4-D2

Chapter 14 Additional Answers 795B