5/6/2024

Probability &
By: Dr. Farrokh Jaleel (IIU)

Counting Rules
Bluman Chapter 4

Dr. Farrokh Jaleel

Probability &
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Counting Rules
Table of Contents Summarize data

Sample Spaces & Addition Rules for

01 02
Probability Probability
Probability of compound events,
using addition rules

Multiplication Rules &

03 Conditional Probability 04 Counting Rules

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Basic Concepts
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Outcome
Result of a 4
single trial of a Event
probability Set of outcomes
experiment of a probability

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experiment

Probability
Experiment
A chance process
leading to well-

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defined results
called ‘outcomes’

Sample Space
Set of all possible
outcomes of a
probability
experiment

Classical Probability
Uses sample spaces to determine the numerical
probability that an event will happen

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Intro
1. The first type of probability
2. Studied formally by mathematicians in 17th-18th centuries
3. Experiment: not actually performed to determine the probability
4. Assumes: all outcomes in sample space equally likely to occur

5. Example: when a single die is rolled, each outcome has same probability of
occurring
6. Since there are six outcomes, each outcome has a probability of 1/6

Equally likely events: events having same probability of occurring

1. Probabilities expressed: fractions, decimals, percentages

2. Example: “What is the probability of getting a head when a coin is

tossed?” Responses can be:

a. One-half

b. Point five

c. Fifty percent

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Card Facts

13 cards of
each type

Example 4-2. Find sample space for drawing one card from an ordinary deck of cards

There are 4 suits (hearts, clubs, diamonds, spades), 13 cards for each suit (ace through
king), Total: 52 outcomes in sample space.

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EXAMPLE - Drawing Cards

Find the probability of getting a red face card (jack, queen, king)
when randomly drawing a card from an ordinary deck

Solution:
- Total cards in an ordinary deck of cards = 52
- Red face cards (JQK of hearts and JQK of diamonds) = 6

-> Probability of getting a red face card:

=

EXAMPLE – Gender of Children

If a family has three children, find the

probability that exactly two of the three

children are girls

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Solution
Sample space for gender of children for a family with three children
has eight outcomes: BBB, BBG, BGB, GBB, GGG, GGB, GBG, BGG.

Three ways to have two girls: GGB, GBG, BGG:

Hence,
P(two girls) = 3/8

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‘And’ vs ‘Or’

If asked to find the probability of getting a queen and a heart when

drawing a single card from a deck = queen of hearts

‘and’ = at the same time

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Contd…
1. ‘or’ has two meanings

2. If asked to find the probability of selecting a queen or a heart

when one card is selected from a deck = one of the 4 queens or
one of the 13 hearts
3. Hence, queen of hearts would be included in both cases and
counted twice
4. So, there would be 4 + 13 - 1 = 16 possibilities

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‘Inclusive or’ Vs ‘Exclusive or’

Inclusive or = both events can occur at the same time

If asked to find the probability of getting a queen or a king, there are 4

queens or one of the 4 kings. Hence, there would be 4 + 4 = 8
possibilities

Exclusive or = both events cannot occur at the same time

e.g. last slide example

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EXAMPLE - Drawing Cards

A card is drawn from an ordinary deck. Find the probability of
getting:

a) A king
b) The 4 of spades
c) A face card (jack, queen, or king)
d) A red card

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Solution
a) There are 4 kings in event E, hence:

b) Since there is only one 4 of spades:

c) There are 3 face cards for each suit, 4 suits (hearts, clubs,
diamonds, spades) -> 12 face cards:

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Contd…
d) 26 red cards: 13 diamonds, 13 hearts.

e) 13 clubs -> probability of selecting a club is:

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Rules of
Probability

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Four Rules
1. Probability of any event E is a number (fraction/decimal)

denoted by 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1

2. Sum of probabilities of all the outcomes in a sample space is 1

3. If an event E cannot occur (event contains no members in

sample space), its probability is 0

4. If an event E is certain, probability of E is 1

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Range of Probability
Rule 1

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EXAMPLE – Rolling a Die

When a single die is rolled, find the probability of getting a 9?

Solution: Rule 3
Sample space is: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, it is impossible to get a 9.

-> Probability: P(9) = 0/6 = 0

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Complementary Events
• Set of outcomes in sample space that are not included in outcomes of
event E
• Denoted by 𝑬 (“E bar”)

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Example - Finding Complements

a. Selecting a month that has 31 days
Answer: Jan, March, May, July, Aug, -> 5/12
b. Selecting a day of the week that begins with the letter T
Answer = 5/7
c. Rolling two dice and getting a sum that is an odd number
Answer = 1/2
d. Selecting an alphabet that is used as a vowel or consonant
21 consonants, 5 vowels -> Answer = 0
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Example - Favorite Ice Cream Flavors

In a study, it was found that 23% people liked vanilla flavor of

ice cream. If a person is selected at random, find the

probability that the person’s favorite flavor of ice cream is not

vanilla.

Answer: P(not vanilla) = 1 – P(vanilla) = 1 - .23 = .77

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Empirical
Probability
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Empirical vs Classical Probability

Empirical Classical
Relies on actual Assumes that
experience to certain
determine the outcomes are
likelihood of equally likely
outcomes

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Example - Distribution of Blood Types

In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had type A, 5 had type B,
and 2 had type AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the
following probabilities.

Solution:
Total = 50 people

a. A person has type O blood: = 21/50

b. A person has type A or type B blood: =27/50
c. A person has neither type A nor type O blood: 7/50
d. A person does not have type AB blood: = 1 – 2/50 = 1 – 1/25 = 24/25

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Example - Hospital Stays

Hospital records indicated that knee replacement patients stayed
in the hospital for the number of days shown in the distribution:

1. A patient stayed exactly 5 days = 56/127

Number of Freq.
days stayed
2. A patient stayed fewer than 6 days = 103/127 3 15

4 32
3. A patient stayed at most 4 days = 47/127
5 56
4. A patient stayed at least 5 days = 80/127 6 19

7 5

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Law of Large Numbers

As the number of trials
increases, proportion of
outcomes to total
number of trials will
approach to maximum
likelihood

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Subjective Probability
Based on an educated

guess/estimate,

employing

opinions and inexact

information

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