GRADE 12 GEOGRAPHY - TASK 3: INTEGRATED QUESTION

Theme: Floods in SA – KZN 2022

(Climate, rivers, settlement, GIS and economic)

Time: 1 hour 30 minutes

Marks: 100

 Read through the source material provided.

 Answer all questions clearly and concisely according to the mark allocation.
 You will be required to integrate, synthesize, analyse and evaluate.

QUESTION 1:

QUESTION 1:

Read through the information carefully below, as well as in the Resource Book and
answer the questions that follow.

Fact File 1.

CUT-OFF LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR #KZNFLOODING HAS DEVELOPED

INTO SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ISSA, PACKING 150KM/H GUSTS!!!
RARE FOR SUCH SYSTEM TO FORM MORE THAN 30 DEGREES FROM
THE EQUATOR!!! [Source: [Link]]

Tuesday, April 12 2022

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Heavy rainfall continues falling over eastern South Africa, particularly over the
Province of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), since April 10, causing floods and landslides.

On April 12, authorities reported at least 45 fatalities across the city of Durban. An
unknown number of people are missing and the death toll is expected to rise.

 The city of Durban and KZN’s south-eastern parts have been put under orange alert
level 8 (Figure 1.1) by the South African Weather Service.
 The system responsible for the heavy rain continued to intensify and RSMC La
Reunion named it Subtropical Depression “Issa” at 12:00 UTC on April 12.
 Residents are advised to stay clear of flooded roads and bridges and avoid travel if
possible. People living in low-lying areas are urged to move to higher ground; those
who fear their homes may collapse should seek shelter in community halls.

Figure 1.1: Orange Level 8 Warning

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At 18:00 UTC on April 12, the center of Subtropical Depression “Issa” was located about
155km SSE of Durban and 85km east of Margate, South Africa. Issa had a maximum
average wind speed of 150km/h and a central pressure of 994hPa.

It was moving SW – away from the coast – at 13km/h in an environment favorable for
further intensification.

Heavy local rains are still possible in the next 12 hours on the southeast coast of South
Africa already affected by heavy accumulations before a progressive improvement. Sea is
still very rough offshore but it’s decreasing gradually.

In 24 hours to April 11, Durban recorded 91mm of rain and more than 300mm in 24 hours
to April 12.

On April 12, authorities reported at least 45 people died in floods and landslides caused by
days of heavy rain in KZN. Many people are still missing and emergency services are
searching for survivors. “It’s an absolute nightmare: lots of mudslides, casualties, collapsed
buildings,” Garrith Jamieson, a rescue worker, told AFP.

“Disaster management teams have been evacuating people in areas that have
experienced mudslides, flooding, and structural collapses of buildings and roads,”
Senzelwe Mzila of the Department of Cooperative Governance said.

“The heavy rains have affected power lines in many municipalities with technical teams
working around the clock to restore power.

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More heavy rainfall is forecast over northern and eastern South Africa, with very heavy
rainfall over the whole KwaZulu-Natal Province over the next 24 hours.
[Source: [Link]]

1.1.1 Why is it strange that Issa is situated at a latitude of 30º south of the equator? (1)
1.1.2 Account for the stage of development that Issa is in. Include an appropriate
annotated drawing. (6)
1.1.3 Refer to Figure 1.1 and name TWO environmental and TWO infrastructural
impacts of an Orange Level 8 Warning. (4)

1.1.4 Issa developed out of a cut-off low that was situated on the coast of Kwazulu-
Natal. Explain the formation of a cut-off low. Remember to take the current
season into account. (5)

FACT FILE 1:
Local knowledge adds value to mapping flood risk in
South Africa’s informal settlements Published: April 13, 2022 8.21pm
The current flooding in South Africa’s coastal city of Durban is dire and
reports indicate that hundreds of people have died and thousands directly
affected. Several months’ worth of rainfall has fallen in a day, and the
effects have been catastrophic.

The problem of floods in Durban is not new. Between 1980 and 2010, there
were over 77 disastrous flood events in KwaZulu-Natal province. The flood
events can be categorised as disastrous when lives are lost, people are
displaced and property is destroyed.

Floods have over the years become increasingly problematic, especially in the
global south, because of:
 high population density
 land-use change
 increased artificial surfaces
 poor solid waste management
 settlement of people in flood plains and wetlands.

The advent of climate change has also led to an increase in the intensity and
frequency of rainfall and flooding in many cities. Flooding is arguably even more
problematic in informal settlements because of the lack of planning.

Floods usually destroy infrastructure, houses and property, cause

displacements and loss of life and pose risks to the health and livelihoods of

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people. This, in turn, increases poverty.

Since floods are not usually predicted well in advance in South Africa,
resources meant for other important city services such as healthcare and
sanitation tend to be channeled to provide relief to flood victims as well as
rescue operations. This in turn affects overall service provision and
development in the city.

A geographical information system (GIS) creates, analyses and maps all types
of data. This includes data on floods and areas vulnerable to flooding. It can
be drawn on when engaging stakeholders and educating the public about
how human and environmental systems interact. But a geographical
information system on its own is not able to explain the human factors that
cause flood vulnerability.
Hence the need for local or indigenous knowledge. Indigenous knowledge is
strongly linked to local culture and past experiences, and therefore it can be
a source of resilience to flooding and other natural disasters.

As in other sub-Saharan cities, the poorer communities in Durban mainly live

in informal settlements.
This is because the local planning authorities are unable to keep up with the
increasing demand for accommodation as people move to the city. According
to city reports, between 2016 and 2019, the local authority managed to build
only an average of 4,000 houses a year. This means the city has a backlog of
more than 440,000 houses. It could take decades to clear.

The informal settlements are unfortunately often located in environmentally

fragile areas like steep slopes, wetlands and flood plains. This is land that is
available precisely because it is unsuitable for building. People living in these
informal settlements are adversely affected by floods because their homes
have poor drainage infrastructure and are built with poor materials. The
residents also arguably have low coping and adaptive capacity. They tend not
to receive flood early warning information in ways that would be helpful.

This points to the need for bottom-up approaches in dealing with potential
flood disaster management in informal settlement areas. Knowledge based on
familiarity with the place offers a number of advantages:

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  it provides a culturally appropriate
response.
 is socially inclusive.
 is cost-effective
 is a participatory way of reducing flood vulnerability, especially in informal settlements.
 promotes community members’ participation in finding solutions that work where they
live ..
 provides city planners with information on the spatial pattern as well as locally specific
factors that cause flooding and damage in particular geographical areas.

Mapping with the use of geographic information systems and levels of flood vulnerability can
identify the people who need the most help. This can assist local government and other
stakeholders to formulate policies and strategies that reduce the impact of floods on people.

1.1 “The problem of floods in Durban is not new.”

1.1.1 How many flooding events have occurred in KwaZulu-Natal province

Between 1980 and 2010? (1)

1.1.2 What is the difference in years between 1980 and 2010?

(1)

1.2 Explain when floods are categorized as disastrous. (3)

1.3 Discuss TWO human factors that contributed to flooding, which has become
more problematic over the years. (4)

1.4 1.4.1 Define the term informal settlement. (1)

1.4.2 Explain why informal settlements are common in cities, such as

Durban. (2)

1.4.3 Discuss the environment where informal settlements are most likely to
develop. (2)

1.5 Explain how climate change has increased flooding. (2)

1.6 According to the fact file, name TWO economic impacts of flooding. (2)

1.7 Discuss how having local knowledge of the local area would help in dealing with
flood disaster management in an informal settlement. (4)
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QUESTION 2: GIS

Refer to Figure 1 showing the photographs of Before and After the floods.

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2.1 Provide ONE reason why each of the following GIS formats would
have been effective for the eThekweni Disaster Management teams:

2.1.1 Vector maps. (2)

2.1.2 Raster maps. (2)

2.2 Define the term “buffer zone”. (2)

2.3 The riparian zone is a strip of vegetation that borders the river on either
side, commonly known as a buffer zone.

2.3.1 Discuss the role the riparian zone has in flood control. (2)

2.3.2 Analyse TWO negative impacts that human activities can have on
the uMlazi River riparian zone. (4)

2.4 GIS is useful in disaster management.

Explain how it would have assisted the local authorities with planning after
the floods. (4)

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 QUESTION 3: GENERAL FLUVIAL

Refer to Resource Sheet 1.

3.1 Select the correct word(s) from the underlined list for each
statement. Write down the answer next to the question number in
your Answer Book.

3.1.1 The river shows typical upper / middle / lower course features. (1)

3.1.2 The gradient of the river course is vertical / gentle / steep. (1)

3.2 Draw an annotated transverse profile between A and B on the

photograph “before the floods”. (5)

3.2.1 Which slope, A or B would be better off to survive in the flood? (1)

3.2.2 Give a reason for your answer in question 3.2.1. (2)

3.3 Describe and Account for the difference in colour of the uMlazi river
“before the floods”and “after the floods”.
Refer to the river flow and types of transportation. (4)

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 QUESTION 4: Climate

Fact File 2: Durban floods 2022

 On 12 April 2022, the slow-moving storm Issa brought long periods of heavy rain
to KwaZulu-Natal which caused flooding and mudslides in Durban and the
surrounding areas, affecting over 40,000 people.
 Mudslides as well as swollen rivers were responsible for many deaths.
 A strong low-pressure weather system off the east coast of southern Africa was
strengthened by moist air from the Indian ocean.
 Durban received more than four times the average monthly rainfall in 24 hours.
 The region is expected to see increased likelihood and intensity of rainfall caused
by human-induced climate change and the effects of La Niña.
[Source: [Link] ]

Image 1: Satellite image of rainfall Image 2: Satellite image of cloud over

` 12 April 2022 Durban 12 Aril 2022

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Figure 2: Synoptic weather map 12/04/2022

Durban
A

[Source: [Link]

Refer to Fact File 2: Durban floods 2022; Image 1: Satellite image of rainfall; Image 2:
satellite image of cloud cover over Durban and Figure 2: Synoptic weather map
12/04/2022

4.1 (a) Determine the approximate amount of precipitation that occurred over
Durban on the 12 April 2022. (2)

(b) Examine Image 1: Satellite image of rainfall; Image 2:

satellite image of cloud cover over Durban.
Explain the difference in how the data was acquired. (3)

4.2 Refer to Figure 2: Synoptic weather map 12/04/2022

4.2.1 Identify the type of pressure cell indicated by the letter A. (1)

4.2.2 Describe the weather associated with pressure cell A. (2)

4.2.3 Name the atmospheric pressure feature formed between X-Y. (1)

4.2.4 Account for the position of the sub-tropical high-pressure belt to the
South of South Africa in Figure 2. (4)

4.2.5 Describe how the movement of air from the high-pressure cell over
the South Indian ocean to the low-pressure cell over Durban
created the conditions that led to the flooding. (4)

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4.3 Using data from all the resources, compile a probable weather station model
showing the conditions for Durban for 12 April 2022.
(Include Cloud cover, wind direction, wind speed and precipitation). (4)

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]

QUESTION 5: ECONOMIC IMPACT

KZN Floods: Economic impact update

22 Apr 2022 - by Lyse Comins

Debris washed up on a beach in Durban during the KwaZulu-Natal floods. Source:

Sandile Ndlovu.
Durban will lose around 1.8% of annual GDP and it will take around three months to get
the city and its businesses back to where the economy was operating before the flood
disaster struck last week.

eThekwini Municipality mayor Mxolisi Kaunda highlighted the preliminary estimates of

the more-than R700 million in operational losses – excluding the cost to repair damaged
infrastructure and properties – in a special online mayoral meeting with business
leaders on Friday.

“The economic impact of these floods has been severe as many industries had to cease
operations. Preliminary estimates indicate that the loss to the eThekwini GDP since 14
April 2022 is R737m.

“This loss was occasioned by the fact that the city has 1 152 businesses located within
eThekwini’s floodplain, and the majority of them were impacted by the flooding,” Kaunda
said.

A total of 38% of these businesses are within the manufacturing sector, 32% in
wholesale and retail trade, and a further 11% are in the government sector.

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“The floods occurred in April, outside our normal rain, and insurers were refusing to
insure businesses because of flooding in those areas, so this is a major concern for the
government and how we support those businesses that are not insured,” he said.

“The city will take about three months to get back to pre-flood levels and it should
reduce the city’s annual GDP by about 1.8 %.”

The port lost just under two days of operations.

“The damage to Bayhead Road has reduced the flow of trucks into the port. A backlog
of about 8 000 to 9 000 containers will take about a week to clear,” Maharaj said.

SA economy shrank in second quarter, hit by KZN floods, load shedding

(May, 2022)

South Africa’s economy shrank by 0.7% in the second quarter of 2022, Statistics SA
said on Tuesday.

This is slightly better than expected. The median expectation among economists polled
by a Bloomberg survey was for a contraction of 0.8% in the second quarter.

Economic activity in the manufacturing industry shrank by 5.9%, in part due to the
impact of flooding in KwaZulu-Natal, which killed more than 400 people and wrecked
infrastructure in April. Manufacturing is the largest industry in KwaZulu-Natal,
accounting for a fifth of national manufacturing production, Statistics SA reported.

The agriculture industry decreased by 7.7% in the second quarter, while the mining and
quarrying industry shrank by 3.5%.

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Source: Statistics SA

Real GDP for the first half of 2022 was 1.4% larger than in the same period in 2021.

Last year, the South African economy grew by 4.9% as it started to recover from a 6.4%
slump in 2020 due to pandemic-related lockdowns. The economy reaches its pre-
pandemic size in the first quarter of 2022 – a year earlier than most expectations.

But this recovery was short-lived. The 0.7% decline in the second quarter dragged GDP
back below pre-pandemic levels.

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Source: Statistics SA

5.1 What percentage of GDP contribution have Durban and SA lose due to the
impact of the floods? (2)
5.2 More than R700 million will have to be set aside for what? (2)
5.3 What does the R700 million exclude? (2)
5.4 Account for industries having to cease operations during the flood. (2)
5.5 State the economic sectors that were most affected by shut down. (2)
5.6 Discuss the effect of the Port being shut down on general economic
activities in the area. (4)
5.7 Describe the loss of GDP contribution by primary activities in the area due
to the floods. (4)
5.8 In a short paragraph, compare and contrast the economic impact of the 2022
KZN floods and the 2020 Covid pandemic. (9)

(27)
Total: 100

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