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Portfolio Variance Calculation for 3 Assets

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
122 views4 pages

Portfolio Variance Calculation for 3 Assets

Uploaded by

Ayush Mahajan
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Portfolio Variance for Three Stocks: Worked

Example (Step-by-Step)

1. Introduction
For a portfolio containing three assets (stocks), the variance measures the
total risk based on the individual asset variances and the covariances between
them. If we let:

• w = (w1 , w2 , w3 )⊤ be the vector of portfolio weights,

• Σ be the 3 × 3 variance–covariance matrix of asset returns,

then the portfolio variance is calculated as:

σp2 = w⊤ Σ w.

2. Variance–Covariance Matrix
The variance–covariance matrix Σ for three assets A, B, and C is:
 
σA2 Cov(A, B) Cov(A, C)
Σ = Cov(B, A) σB2 Cov(B, C)
Cov(C, A) Cov(C, B) σC2

where:

• σA2 , σB2 , σC2 are the variances of the assets,

• Cov(X, Y ) is the covariance between assets X and Y .

1
3. Portfolio Variance Formula
 
wA
Given w = wB , the formula expands to:
wC
 2
 
σ A Cov(A, B) Cov(A, C) wA
σp2 = wA wB wC Cov(B, A)
 
σB2 Cov(B, C) wB  .
Cov(C, A) Cov(C, B) σC2 wC

4. Step-by-Step Calculation
Step 1: Multiply the covariance matrix by the weight
vector
 
σA2 wA + Cov(A, B)wB + Cov(A, C)wC
Σw = Cov(B, A)wA + σB2 wB + Cov(B, C)wC  .
Cov(C, A)wA + Cov(C, B)wB + σC2 wC

Step 2: Multiply the result by the transpose of the


weight vector
σp2 = wA · (σA2 wA + Cov(A, B)wB + Cov(A, C)wC ) +
wB · (Cov(B, A)wA + σB2 wB + Cov(B, C)wC ) +
wC · (Cov(C, A)wA + Cov(C, B)wB + σC2 wC ).

5. Expanded Scalar Form


In scalar form, the portfolio variance is:
σp2 = wA
2 2 2 2
σA +wB σB +wC2 σC2 +2wA wB Cov(A, B)+2wA wC Cov(A, C)+2wB wC Cov(B, C).

Setup
For a 3-asset portfolio with weight vector w = (wA , wB , wC )⊤ and variance–
covariance matrix Σ, the portfolio variance is
σp2 = w⊤ Σw.

2
We will compute this in two ways:

1. Matrix multiplication: σp2 = w⊤ (Σw),

2. Fully expanded scalar form.

Numbers for the Example


   
0.40 0.040 0.006 0.012
w = 0.35 , Σ = 0.006 0.090 0.018 .
0.25 0.012 0.018 0.025
Units are in variance/covariance of returns.

Method 1: Matrix Multiplication (Step-by-Step)


Step 1: Compute Σw
   
0.040 · 0.40 + 0.006 · 0.35 + 0.012 · 0.25 0.02110
Σw = 0.006 · 0.40 + 0.090 · 0.35 + 0.018 · 0.25 = 0.03840 .
0.012 · 0.40 + 0.018 · 0.35 + 0.025 · 0.25 0.01735

Step 2: Left-multiply by w⊤
 
0.02110
σp2 = w⊤ (Σw) = 0.40 0.35 0.25 0.03840 .
 

0.01735
= 0.40(0.02110) + 0.35(0.03840) + 0.25(0.01735).
= 0.00844 + 0.01344 + 0.00434 = 0.02622 .
Hence the portfolio standard deviation is

σp = 0.02622 ≈ 0.1620 (16.20%).

3
Method 2: Scalar Expansion (Check)
Formula:
2 2
σp2 = wA 2 2
σA +wB σB +wC2 σC2 +2wA wB Cov(A, B)+2wA wC Cov(A, C)+2wB wC Cov(B, C).

Substitute:
2 2
wA σA = (0.40)2 (0.040) = 0.00640,
2 2
wB σB = (0.35)2 (0.090) = 0.011025,
wC2 σC2 = (0.25)2 (0.025) = 0.0015625,
2wA wB Cov(A, B) = 0.00168, 2wA wC Cov(A, C) = 0.00240, 2wB wC Cov(B, C) = 0.00315.
Add variance terms:

0.00640 + 0.011025 + 0.0015625 = 0.0189875.

Add covariance terms:

0.00168 + 0.00240 + 0.00315 = 0.00723.

Total:
σp2 = 0.0189875 + 0.00723 = 0.02622 , σp ≈ 16.20%.
Same result as Method 1.

Key Idea
The matrix form w⊤ Σw automatically incorporates both variances and co-
variances. The scalar form is useful for intuition, showing how each piece
contributes to total risk.

Common questions

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Both the matrix multiplication method and the scalar expansion method yield the same result for portfolio variance, demonstrating their equivalence. The matrix method uses the formula σ²_p = w⊤Σw, while the scalar method expands to w²_Aσ²_A + w²_Bσ²_B + w²_Cσ²_C + 2w_Aw_BCov(A, B) + 2w_Aw_CCov(A, C) + 2w_Bw_CCov(B, C). In the given example with weights [0.40, 0.35, 0.25] and variance-covariance matrix, both methods result in σ²_p = 0.02622, giving a standard deviation of approximately 16.20%. The matrix approach integrates both variances and covariances and can be more efficient computationally, while the scalar form is useful for understanding how each component contributes to total risk .

The scalar expansion of the portfolio variance formula provides insights into portfolio risk management by highlighting the contributions of individual asset risks and inter-asset correlations to overall portfolio risk. Each term in the expanded form reveals how an asset's variance or covariance affects total risk, allowing portfolio managers to identify critical components for risk mitigation. It emphasizes the importance of selecting assets not only based on individual risk but also on how they interact within the portfolio. This understanding can guide decisions on asset allocation, diversification strategies, and targeting substitutions to optimize risk-return profiles .

Using both matrix and scalar methods for confirming portfolio variance calculations is significant for validation and clarity of financial analysis. The matrix method is compact and computationally efficient, suitable for complex portfolios with numerous assets. Meanwhile, the scalar method provides more intuitive insight by breaking down contributions from individual variances and covariances, helping portfolio managers understand sources of risk. Cross-verifying results from both methods ensures accuracy and enhances confidence in the results. This dual approach is crucial for identifying any discrepancies and providing a robust framework to support portfolio strategy to mitigate risk effectively .

Covariances in the variance-covariance matrix measure how two asset returns move relative to each other and play a critical role in calculating portfolio variance. They influence the total portfolio risk by accounting for the interactions between asset returns, either mitigating or amplifying risk depending on whether assets are positively or negatively correlated. In the portfolio variance formula σ²_p = w⊤Σw, the covariance terms are represented as 2w_iw_jCov(A_i, A_j). They contribute to the portfolio variance based on the correlation structure between assets, illustrating that diversification effects depend not just on individual asset risks, but also on how asset returns co-move .

Understanding the variance-covariance matrix is essential for constructing an optimized investment portfolio because it encompasses critical data on how assets individually and collectively contribute to portfolio risk. By analyzing both variances and covariances, investors can make informed decisions on asset allocation by identifying those combinations that minimize risk through diversification. The matrix is a foundational tool for constructing portfolios that balance risk and return according to specific investment goals, enabling optimization techniques like Markowitz's efficient frontier approach. Proper understanding of this matrix facilitates strategic diversification, revealing risk reduction opportunities through asset correlations .

The portfolio standard deviation is the square root of the portfolio variance. In the given example, once the portfolio variance σ²_p is calculated to be 0.02622 using either the matrix or scalar method, the standard deviation σ_p is derived by taking the square root of 0.02622, which approximates to 0.1620, or 16.20% .

The variance-covariance matrix enables the comparison of risk levels between different portfolio compositions by quantifying how individual asset variances and covariances interact within each portfolio scenario. By applying the portfolio variance formula σ²_p = w⊤Σw with different weight vectors for varying portfolios, investors can compute and compare the resultant portfolio variances. This allows for assessing which portfolio composition offers the best balance of risk versus expected return. Analyzing changes in the variance-covariance matrix across different portfolio weights highlights the impact of altering asset allocations, guiding strategic decisions to achieve preferred risk profiles .

Portfolio variance measures the total risk of a three-asset portfolio based on the individual asset variances and the covariances between them. It is calculated using the variance-covariance matrix (Σ) and the vector of portfolio weights (w). The portfolio variance is calculated as σ²_p = w⊤Σw. The variance-covariance matrix for assets A, B, and C includes their variances and covariances, represented as Σ = [[σ²_A, Cov(A, B), Cov(A, C)], [Cov(B, A), σ²_B, Cov(B, C)], [Cov(C, A), Cov(C, B), σ²_C]]. If w = [w_A, w_B, w_C]⊤, then the expanded form is w²_Aσ²_A + w²_Bσ²_B + w²_Cσ²_C + 2w_Aw_BCov(A, B) + 2w_Aw_CCov(A, C) + 2w_Bw_CCov(B, C).

Asset weights significantly influence the calculated portfolio variance as they determine the extent to which each asset's variance and covariance contribute to the total risk. In the formula σ²_p = w⊤Σw, the portfolio weights w_A, w_B, and w_C multiply the individual variances σ²_A, σ²_B, σ²_C, and the covariances between assets. Changes in weights can alter the contribution of each asset to the portfolio's risk profile. For example, a higher weight on an asset with low variance might reduce overall risk, while a higher weight on an asset with high variance or high positive covariance with other assets can increase total risk .

The variance-covariance matrix structure efficiently captures correlations between assets by encompassing both the variances and covariances in a symmetrical matrix format. Each diagonal element represents the variance of an asset, while off-diagonal elements represent covariances between asset pairs, reflecting how their returns move together. The matrix allows for systematic calculation of how each pair of assets contributes to overall portfolio risk through interactions, thus enabling precise estimation of risk influenced by correlations. This structure is crucial for integrating asset interactions in portfolio variance calculations, providing a comprehensive view of potential diversification benefits or risks .

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