Climate Change Effects on Agriculture Productivity
Climate Change Effects on Agriculture Productivity
DOI: 10.1002/pa.1960
ACADEMIC PAPER
J Public Affairs. 2019;e1960. [Link]/journal/pa © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 1 of 15
[Link]
2 of 15 PRAVEEN AND SHARMA
maladministration of the land. In turn, CC impact becomes more danger- precipitation, and other conditions (Van Vuuren et al., 2009). Agricul-
ous in developing countries because of its massive dependence on agri- ture represents less than 2% of GDP in developed or high‐income
culture. For instance, an African country that is Ethiopia, agriculture countries and 2.9% for the world as a whole. It is more concern and
supports the livelihoods of the great mass of people by providing 80% important for developing or low‐income countries, contributing large
of employment, and it contributes 43% of the GDP (Narasimham & GDP (Ackerman & Stanton, 2012). Mainly, African countries like Ethi-
Subbarao, 2017) This might be an exponential example of the impact opia which contributes about 43% GDP (Narasimham & Subbarao,
of CC on the vulnerable rural communities in the developing world. 2017; Figures 1–4).
On the other way, agricultural has a large potential to mitigate CC affects agriculture in many ways such as variations in rainfall,
and adapt CC. According to IPCC (2007), mitigation is an interfer- average temperatures, and climate extremes with an important impact
ence to reduce the emissions sources or enhance the GHGs sinks, on soil erosion (i.e., floods and drought): changes in diseases and
whereas adaptation is the adjustment in natural or human systems pests, changes in carbon dioxide, changes in food quality that is nutri-
in response to actual or expected climatic change or their effects tion, changes in growing season, and changes in sea level (World Bank,
to reduce harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. Organic agricul- 2008). Crop yield shows a strong correlation with temperature change
tural and sustainable systems can help reduce agricultural GHG and with the duration of warm or cold waves and differs on the basis
emissions through energy conservation, lower levels of carbon‐based of plant maturity stages during extreme weather events (Hoffmann,
inputs, lower use of synthetic fertilizer and other features that min- 2013). Variation in rainfall patterns will increase water scarcity and
imize GHG emissions, and sequester carbon in the soil. During miti- associated drought problems for crops and alteration in irrigation plan-
gation and adaptation of CC through different agricultural activities, ning. They also reduce the predictability of rainfall for farmers' and
there might be many challenges or barriers such as financial, policy their respective planning. In an indirect way, a change in moisture
making, and its implementation. In general, the agricultural activity and temperature levels can alter the absorption rate of fertilizers and
could be a source of GHGs as well as a sink, notably through the minerals, which determine yield output. In short, the rise in tempera-
storage of carbon in the soil organic matter and in biomass and influ- ture along with the reduction in rainfall reduces agricultural productiv-
enced by CC (Narasimham & Subbarao, 2017). ity if both are beyond the threshold (suitable for crop production;
Tirado & Cotter, 2010). According to Ignaciuk and Mason‐D'Croz
(Ludi, Stevens, Peskett, & Cabral, 2007), this study revealed and
2 | REVIEW OF LITERATURE reported that CC which reduces yields of rice, maize, wheat, potatoes,
and vegetables currently and will continue to reduce extremely by the
2.1 | CC and its impacts on agriculture year 2050 on a global basis.
CC is a major concern in every sector such as livestock, which also
Agriculture is an economic activity that is largely dependent upon affects CC in the quality and quantity of feed. Literature as mentioned
weather and climate in order to produce the food, fiber, and other in Hoffmann (2013) deals with CC impacts on livestock and its vulner-
necessary things to sustain human life. Agriculture, being the back- able effect to climate variation.
bone for every country, economic activity is expected to be vulnerable CCs have been a worldwide natural threat to all sectors such as
to climate variability and its change. It involves natural processes that trade, industry, and particularly the agricultural field (Yohannes,
frequently requires fixed proportions of nutrients, temperatures, 2016). The agriculture sector is on the higher rank for any country's
FIGURE 1 Changes in wheat production predicted by agroecological zones under global circulation model climate change scenarios versus CO2
concentration. Current cultivated land (right), future climates (left). Results are expressed against an index of climate change (=100 in 1990), a
proxy for a time from 1990 to 2080. Source: Fischer, Shah, Tubiello, and Van Velhuizen (2005)
PRAVEEN AND SHARMA 3 of 15
FIGURE 3 Source: Recent Climate and Air Pollution Impacts on Indian Agriculture by Jennier Burney and V. Ramathan (2014)
economy and rural livelihood as CCs are very important from the per- carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrite oxide, which mainly affect the cli-
spective of agriculture field. One study explained that Pakistan mostly mate (Ali et al., 2017).
faced CCs out of which, the intensity of high rainfall and floods, these Regional CC impacts are likely to variable and substantial, there are
natural disasters have caused huge damages to the crops and property some areas benefiting from an altered climate while other zones will
of the farmers. This is possible that the abovementioned situation will be adversely affected. Generally, food production is likely to reduce
be raised as a function of CC. In the developing countries as well as in in most critical regions that are tropical areas and subtropical, whereas
Pakistan, rural and associated urban populated areas are mostly agriculture in high‐income or developed countries may actually posi-
dependent on agriculture. Agricultural activities and climate behavior tive at which the development of technology is adequate with the
changes are affected due to the direct dependence on climatic factors, application of appropriate adaptive adjustments. In relation, crop pro-
in low temperature with high‐latitude areas, increased temperature ductivity is projected to increase slightly at mid to high latitudes for
due to CC could allow for the longer growing season. Many types of local mean temperature increases of up to 1–3°C depending on the
gasses emerge from the agriculture sector, mainly GHGs such as crop and then decrease beyond that in some regions. At lower
4 of 15 PRAVEEN AND SHARMA
latitudes, especially seasonally dry and tropical regions, crop produc- It is, also, said that Ethiopia's vulnerability to the impacts of CC will
tivity is projected to decrease for even small enhancement in mean become worsen (Gebreegziabher, Zenebe, Stage, Mekonnen, & Alemu,
local temperature (1–2°C), which would increase the risk of hunger. 2011). According to Gebreegziabher, Mekonnen, Deribie, Abera, and
Warmer weather was expected to bring longer growing seasons in Kassahun (2014), Iqbal, Ping, Abid, Kazmi, and Rizwan (2016)
northern areas, and plants everywhere were expected to benefit from explained that Nile basin of Ethiopia, temperature and rainfall pattern,
carbon fertilization. is changing due to CC and affecting as stated sectors such as agricul-
Agriculture is major to the livelihood of millions of people in vari- ture,foodcrop and livestock are changing due to climatic variation.
ous low‐income or developing countries such as Africa and part of According to Afar National Regional State 2010 (Weldesilassie,
Asia. It is the main portal that provides livelihood and employment in Assefa, & Hagos, 2015) Report, all pastoral regions in Ethiopia are
developing countries (Solomon et al., 2007). The impact of CC on highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of CC, whereas the problem
the agriculture sector has its significant results on food production, is more prevalent in the north‐eastern lowlands of the country mainly
livelihoods, and the overall economy of countries, especially Afar region. Various studied done in different part of Ethiopia reported
agriculture‐based economies in the developing countries. Agriculture that CC has a huge impact on livestock resources (Biru et al., 2010).
contributing 29% of developing countries' gross domestic product Conversely, many reports showed that present agricultural activi-
and 65% depend on agriculture contribute 29% GDP in developing ties are an important source of GHGs that make worse climate inter-
count (Campbell, Mann, & Meléndez‐Ortiz, 2011). As Lobell et al. ruption. Mostly developing countries produced GHG from agriculture
(Padgham, 2009) studied in twelve food insecure regions of the world field and a large number of farm animals and inadequate fertilizer man-
and reported that CC could significantly impact agricultural productiv- agement, improper use of agrochemicals and mismanagement of the
ity and food security up to 2030 especially for African and South Asian land. Impact of CCs becomes more severe in developing countries
countries. The main reason for such degrading yields changes in aver- because they are mostly depending on the agriculture field. In the agri-
age temperature and rainfall and increased in the variability associated cultural field, the major potential to mitigate and adapt CC is vital.
with both. Nigeria by Okoloye et al. (Lobell et al., 2008) reported that IPCC reports show that alleviation is an involvement to reduce the
in recent years the climate is extremely changed and resulted flood emissions sources or enhance the GHGs go under the surface,
and drought frequency are increasing. According to Guiteras (Okoloye, whereas adaptation is the modification in natural or human systems
Aisiokuebo, Ukeje, Anuforom, & Nnodu, 2013), CC is assumed to in response to actual or expected climatic change or their effects to
impose significant costs on the Indian economy by affecting crop yield. reduce damage or make use of advantageous opportunities. Normally,
CC is a major concern as already explained by many researchers in the farming activity may be a good source of GHGs in addition to a
African and Asian countries due to its poor adaptive capacity, lack of sink, particularly through the carbon storage in the soil organic matter
technology (Guiteras, 2009). Gebreegziabher et al. (Evangelista, and in biomass influenced by climate changing.
Young, & Burnett, 2013) reported that geographic location, topogra- The CCs are mainly attributed to the continuous increase in
phy, and low adaptive capacity make the country highly susceptible GHGs, including carbon dioxide, fluorinated gasses, methane, nitrous
to the severe impacts of CC. Mostly, the population in developing oxide, and many other gasses, which bring changes in rain pattern,
countries depends on the climate‐sensitive sector for their survival. temperature, and add negative effects on water and land resources,
PRAVEEN AND SHARMA 5 of 15
floods, and droughts. CCs are considered to be a global occurrence; 2013). Agricultural productivity can be affected by CC and changes
on the other hand, its impacts are more widely felt in the developing in soil health (physical, chemical, and biological), infestation by
countries, due to their greater vulnerabilities and minor ability to insects/pests. Soil assessment and crop process through WTGROWS,
alleviate the effects of CCs. As developing countries, namely, India, IFOCROP, and DSSAT models expose the differential response of
Pakistan, Africa, and other low‐income countries mainly have reduced crop yield to a rising temperature at different locations. Sim-
agriculture‐based economies. In the developing continent (such as ulation using WTGROWS model indicated that climate impact in crops
Asia and Africa), the latest work has been progressively considered was more pronounced in warmer regions, which became highly
the impacts of CC on agricultural production. adverse in limited water and nutrient. Using WTGROWS and DSSAT,
In general, CC has been minor effects on global food production, the impact of aerosol was evaluated on rice; wheat sugarcane and
but these effects are unevenly distributed geographically. Arid and radiation reduction were compensated with the enhancement in the
subhumid regions are engaged in subsistence agriculture and are not duration of crops. In INFOCROP, insect‐pest subroutine has been
technically sound or financially strong enough to abate the negative addressed and successfully used for CC studies. The author recom-
impacts of CC as they have almost no potential for adaptation. These mends a further need to evolve a methodology for integrating rela-
adversely affect the people in these countries because of their depen- tional layers of biophysics and socioeconomic inputs under the
dence on agriculture for their livelihood. According to estimates of the impact of crop simulation tools for region‐wise estimates of the
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the global numbers of impacts on agriculture.
undernourished people are almost 795 million. These shows turn The research papers show that CCs and carbon dioxide concentra-
down of nearly 200 million over the last 20 years. South Asia and tion is a big issue, and many research for assessing the climatic impact
sub‐Saharan continental part of Africa constitute one of the most of on agriculture and crop growth has been increased. Genetic diversity
the world's hungry population region. The most vulnerable region to in crops provides a platform to identify the sustainability of crop pro-
CC in South Asia, more than 70% of the people (approximately 1.1 bil- ductivity. The extent of inter and intraannual variability in climate hap-
lion) are alive in rural regions dominated by agriculture, and almost pens to be large in the region and crop respond differentially to such
75% of these people are poor. Prominently, nearly 18% of the region's changes. The author suggests that suitable agronomic management
GDP is composed of agriculture, and the industry employs more than practices and mitigation to sustain agricultural production (Ackerman
50% of the population. In addition, CC can be intimidation to agricul- & Stanton, 2012).
ture and food security due to temporal and spatial variation in rainfall Aggarwal (2008) described the exploration of the impacts of Indian
water availability, land, capital, biodiversity, and terrestrial resources. agriculture on climate and the future repercussions. Agriculture con-
Due to changes in agricultural production, it could potentially cause tributes 28% of GHG emissions primarily due to methane emission
food uncertainty for 9 billion people by the year 2050. Study reports for rice, centric fermentation in ruminant animals and nitrogen oxide
say that regional and global water supplies can be altered due to CC from soil manures and fertilizers. The climate boundaries have been
and can trigger a shortage of water for agricultural purposes. results in floods, cyclones, droughts, and glaciations, which would be
Several studies revealed that increasing temperature and the lead to instability in food production. The projected data shows that
changing pattern of rainfall system have been a strong impact on food states 4 to 5 million tones loss of wheat with every rise of 1°C temper-
productivity (Kirby et al., 2016; Janjua, Samad, Khan, & Nasir, 2010; ature. Potential approaches to reduce emissions include N‐use effi-
Mahmood, Ahmad, Hassan, & Bakhsh, 2012). Research says that pro- ciency and soil carbon, improving livestock diet, development of
duction of wheat in South Asia will decline by wheat 50% up to the adverse climate tolerant genotypes, and others. One study finds that
year 2050, it will be equal to almost 7% of the global crop production temperature has larger impacts on crop production than a variation
(de Fraiture et al., 2007). Below diagrams shows the CC impact on of rainfall system (Ochieng, Kirimi, & Mathenge, 2016).
wheat production in Indian agriculture. Precipitation and temperature are the two most important vari-
According to Peterson Institute states that agricultural production ables in the fields of climate studies for agriculture and hydrology
in developing countries will have been further fall between 10% and (Wijngaard, Klein Tank, & Können, 2003). The rainfall system is a crit-
25%, and global warming will decrease the agricultural capability of ical component in relationships of rainfall, which brings flood and
India by 40% if it continues unabated. Hence, CC which increases drought valuation as well as all mitigation measures. The implications
many serious threats to food security, there are studies tells that neg- of changes in precipitation and temperature make it crucial for water
ative impacts on the productivity of different crops, the food supply, resource planners to accurately assess their behavior and impacts on
and the cost of adoption of climate. related hydrological planning/variables. Temperature plays a vital and
well‐known role in evaporation, transpiration water demand and thus
significantly affects both water requirements and strategies to assure
3 | REVIEW OF LITERATURE its availability. There are many studies done in this CC and agriculture
based on various crop models.
A remarked that need to delineate vulnerable regions and identify Observation of climate system globally reveals remarkable alter-
suitable adaptations and mitigation strategies to sustain agriculture ations to regional and globally averaged precipitation and air temper-
problems under global CC (Kalra, Suneja, Mendiratta, & Gupta, ature, and these alterations will probably have associated impacts on
6 of 15 PRAVEEN AND SHARMA
groundwater and underground water recharge. A study was done Economically, it will be very tough and burden on the government to
and projected that the variation in precipitation pattern, flows of pay for the compensation. Crop productivity is affected by CC, with
the river, and the rise of sea levels (globally) will be affected because serious implications for food safety. Global warming has been hypoth-
of CC in coming next century. The notable alteration in the climatic esized to boost yields, as increasing atmospheric carbon acts as a fer-
system can adversely affect agricultural productivity over the next tilizer effect, but the impacts are probably negative overall for poor or
coming years. developing countries. For instance, there will be a reduction in food
The increase of CC is recognized as a global anomaly with poten- production in countries in tropical areas due to global warming.
tially long‐lasting implications, corresponding with more frequent Extended droughts or floods may cause food shortages in African
extreme weather system. Only 10% of annual global CO2 is emitted countries. There will be more poverty and other social troubles in
by developing countries, and yet they are the most susceptible to cli- the Pacific Islands and Indonesia, as these countries are more depen-
mate changing pattern system due to the lack of mitigation and adap- dent on imports. A recent study by the International Water Manage-
tive capacity. Such climatic alterations are assumed to affect people ment Institute forecasts that wheat production in South Asia will
residing in agricultural communities in developing countries. The large decline by 50% by 2050.
population in South Asian countries is dependent on rural economies The agriculture field is highly dependent on alterations in climatic
based on agriculture; hence, these areas are especially affected by conditions and environment, thus making it a dangerous activity. The
CCs. This causes serious threats to their social, economic, and ecolog- changes in climate condition are a major risk for agriculture and food
ical systems. The World Bank's South Asia Climate Change Strategy systems. The increasing severity and frequency of extreme weather
announced that the poorest people in the region will be affected the have extensively flawed agriculture. The farmers are forever facing
most by CC due to limited assets, unfavorable geography, and greater natural disasters, unpredictable rain, and pests, for example, the
dependence on climate‐sensitive sources of income. Extreme weather farmers are encountered with heavy rains, floods, pests and diseases,
events at high frequency in the region of recent years (flash floods in droughts, and market price variations. According to a report on pro-
Asian countries, viz., Pakistan and India) are thought to be directly duction, marketing, financial, legal, environmental, and human
associated with CC and are likely to keep the poor in a perennial pov- resources are major sources of risk factors in the agriculture field.
erty trap. The variability in CC presents a major challenge to agricul- There are five most important risk factors of agriculture field, as
tural production and rural livelihoods, which affects approximately follows:
2.5 billion people who are totally or partially dependent on the agricul-
ture field. The agricultural fields well depended on alterations in cli- • Production risks linked to changes in crop yields and livestock from
matic conditions, thus making it a dangerous activity in this sector. many sources (i.e., unpredictable weather conditions, disease inci-
Worldwide agricultural production depends on CC and affects dif- dence, and pests).
ferent crops and regions. But it is generally expected that agricultural • There are economic risks, such as a farmer's capacity to pay their
productivity will decline. According to calculation, CC resulted in the
bills to sustain farming and avoid liquidation.
reduction of global maize yield by 3.8% between 1980 and 2010. Eco-
• Marketing risks, which involve variations in the prices of agricul-
nomic losses from extreme weather events are increasing due to CC. It
tural products.
is projected that the average temperature will increase and patterns of
rainfall will change. Consequently, it is likely that more intense • There are legal and environmental risks.
weather events and floods will occur in the coming decades. This will • Finally, there are narrow human resources (i.e., a lack of family
greatly affect the community in terms of rescue operations, loss of members to play the role of labour and farm management).
human life, damage to assets, and disruption of business. Crop produc- As a consequence, there is a negative impact on production, lead-
tivity is affected by CC, with serious implications for food security. ing to huge production losses. It is therefore important for farmers
Global warming has been hypothesized to boost yields, as increasing to perceive and regulate production risks appropriately.
atmospheric carbon acts as a fertilizer effect, but the impacts are prob-
ably negative overall for poor countries. For instance, there will be a The research shows that more than 50% of farmers were risk
reduction in food production in tropical countries due to global hostile in nature, and they had high perceptions about floods. In
warming. There will be extended droughts and food shortages, espe- the case of economic defeat, flooding is the most natural disaster.
cially in African countries. There will be more poverty and other social The deep studies exposed that farmers were affected in terms of
troubles in the Pacific Islands and Indonesia, as these countries are damages to crops, irrigation systems, water pollution, livestock, and
more dependent on imports. Economic losses from extreme weather other agricultural operations. Furthermore, losses in farm give in
conditions are increasing due to CC. It is projected that the average and security increased due to the harmful impacts of floods on agri-
temperature will increase and patterns of rainfall will change. Conse- cultural systems.
quently, it is likely that more intense extreme weather hazardous The high‐risk perception of farmers resulted in a high peril adverse
events and floods or droughts will occur in the coming decades. This approach in farmers. Tremendous losses to agriculture production in
will be greatly affected the community in terms of rescue operations, 2010, 2011, and 2014, farmers considered floods and heavy rains to
loss of human life, damage to assets, and disruption of business. carry much greater risk than other natural disasters. The literature says
PRAVEEN AND SHARMA 7 of 15
that the majority of farmers in their studies were risk averse in nature. It also exposed that there was peril aversion in farmers with high‐
The education was crucial among socioeconomic factors because it risk perception as compared with those with minor awareness. Hazard
affected by the risk aversion behavior of farmers. Knowledgeable perception is a crucial warning sign in the disasters literature. Individ-
farmers may be capable of successful perceptions and adoption to ual and community responses to natural disasters can be illustrated,
minimize or avoid risk because of their understanding and knowledge. and a positive link is found between public response and adaptation
These conclusions for the link of education with peril aversion are cor- to natural hazards. This means that when the hazard perception of
related with the following findings: farmers directly affects the peril aversion of farmers and they have
According to the analysis, most of the educated farmers in the to adopt risk‐minimizing strategies. For example, farmers having a
Philippines were peril averse in nature compared with uneducated high‐risk perception of floods prefer to cultivate off‐land and to prac-
farmers. The similar findings for education and hazard attitudes of tice diversification as agricultural flood‐risk management tools. Other
farmers were also reported in findings showed that there is more hand, farmers may be used diversification in income, precautionary
peril aversion in highly experienced farmers as compared with those savings, and diversification in crops and many other farm hazard man-
having less experience. The experienced farmers are not as much agement tools before and after disaster situations.
probable to confront natural disasters because of their indigenous The big farmers have more land and larger diversification of
knowledge about the prevailing environment and weather condi- income and crops. So the dummy for the farmer class reveals that
tions. These conclusions are also related to the findings of others large subsistence farmers have less peril aversion as compared with
and their consequences show that there is more risk aversion in the small subsistence farmers. Therefore, farmers' socioeconomic fac-
highly experienced farmers as compared with less‐experienced tors and other calamity related factors play basic roles in determining
farmers. Precise forecasting has a strong positive influence on agri- their risk attitude. After the 2005 earthquake and major floods in
culture productivity thereby reducing damages and alert farmers to 2010, Pakistan (as developing countries pertains to Asian zones) still
cope‐up with weather hazards. Benefits of forecasting are men- has poor disaster management, preparedness alleviation, and institu-
tioned below: tionalized coping strategies. It is important that disaster hazard reduc-
tion and preparedness should be in a national priority. In addition, it is
• No urea topdressing before expected heavy rainfall and no top-
required that the disaster‐prone areas should be included under gov-
dressing after storm either. This will save urea from being lost in ernment support programs. The interests of the farming community
the environment and later will help in managing bacterial diseases.
can be secured by policies initiated by the government.
• If forecasting indicates knocking flash flood, better to harvest crop Agriculture and food security can be affected by the change in
even if 60–75% crop is matured. It will help in averting a total loss. climate for many reasons, such as the rainfall distribution, tempera-
• Forecasting about the commencement of rainy season helps the ture variation and the availability of capital, water, biodiversity, land,
farmers to sow crop at the right time. and global resources. This may increase uncertainties in the food
chain ranging from farm to fork and result in trade dynamics and
• All the factors mentioned above improve agricultural
eventually affect the global economy, food security, and the capabil-
productivity/production.
ity to nourish 9 billion people by 2050. According to the Interna-
• Spreading of fungal pathogens, which carried by wind, can be given
tional Institute for Applied System Analysis showed that irrigation
the pretreatment of crops to avoid massive losses.
requirements at the regional or global level have an effect affect
• Wheat Rust and Downy Mildew have forecasting models and pre- the climatic conditions, agricultural water withdrawals, and future
dictions based on scouting for the disease and weather patterns. socioeconomics. In studies, that irrigation requirement may be
• Farmers can determine the best time to treat a crop to get the best increased by up to 45% by 2080. Even there is an improved irriga-
outcome to manage pest and diseases as well as manage irrigation tion system overall, there may be an increase in water withdrawals
and fertilizer use. by 20% in the agricultural field. The worldwide irrigation system
increase with the change in the climate system will be boost by
• Help to find out dry/wet spells of rainy seasons so that irrigation
20% above the reference base case scenario (exclusive of the
planning can be done.
climate‐changing method). CC has been a modest impact on global
• Enables the farmers to manage the whole value chains such as land
food production, but its geographic distribution is not smooth. Such
preparation, planting, sowing, irrigation, application of fertilizers,
as that there are more losses in Africa and South Asia representing
step against frost, transportation and storage of food grains, plug-
the arid and subarid region and specifically in poor countries with
ging harrowing hoeing, protection of livestock, management of
a reduced amount of ability to adapt and mitigate to CC.
crops, and harvesting time under appropriate and optimum condi-
In the Pakistan, dry hot summers and freezing cold winters pre-
tions for increasing productivity of the crops.
vail. The geographical characteristics of the country are divergent;
• Farmers can manage their crops properly and improve their the country has high mountains chain, plateaus in the center, plains,
productivity. deserts, and a lengthy coastline in the southwest. Every geographic
• Seed and fodder quality and all other postharvest activities can be location has characterized by different climatic conditions; some
carried out in time. regions are very cold and some are very hot, whereas some of them
8 of 15 PRAVEEN AND SHARMA
remain moderate all year. On the other hand, the historical data It is, also, predicted that CC will have an adverse effect on the econ-
show that there is a reduced amount of rainfall in this region as omy of Pakistan, as extreme weather events are already occurring,
compared with adjacent areas. This country has a rich of the river such as changes in rainfall patterns, droughts, and floods. Pakistan is
water system, and these rivers are the major sources for agricultural especially vulnerable to change in climate due to its high dependence
field and water requirement. The main role of agriculture is very on natural resources. Therefore, appropriate adaptation measures are
important in ensuring food safety and decreasing poverty. Tempera- needed to be explored by this country on a priority basis.
ture increase can affect agriculture through an effect on the According to several definitions of climate adaptation, it is defined
cropping season, the increase in irrigation, increase in evapotranspi- by the IPCC as “The adjustment in natural or human systems in
ration, and the increasing effect of high‐temperature stress on crops. response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which
The short term of crop varieties, cultivation, and variation in crop moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.” The preceding
sowing time may reduce the negative impact of the aforementioned journalism shows that a certain level of drought and improper use of
climatic threats. So disparate of climatic conditions and atmospheric land capacity have an impact on the local agriculture field and whereas
effect, the susceptibility index of CC in Pakistan is very high as com- the losses due to disaster can be reduced by the rational management
pared with several countries around the world. of land use. In the China country, it is showed that the government
In present times, the many countries have faced climatic changes tried to the control of CCs over the past decade by starting country-
condition and also including enhanced temperature, variations in rain- wide projects of reforestation, which provides substantial environ-
fall system, weather shift, floods, earthquakes, and others. In the Paki- mental benefits.
stan country, though not a major contributor to emissions that have The author describes that the negative impacts of CC such as an
resulted in creating the CC situation, this country has a high vulnera- increase in temperature and variation in precipitation are predictable
bility index and needs for its adaptation to new changes in future. In to lower the benefits for the production of the agricultural field (Lasco
view of the fact that in 2010, the agricultural sector in Pakistan has et al., 2009). Midwestern U.S. Corn Belt contributes substantially to
been faced three gigantic floods that had overwhelming effects on this system through the production of more than one third of the
the whole economy, and predominantly the agriculture sector. The world's source of corn. The agriculture field of the United States is
flood ruined standing crops of rice, vegetables, pulses and sugar cane, contributing substantially to GHG emissions, and it is vulnerable to
cotton, sorghum, and livestock, along with heavy losses of lives in change in patterns of weather, diseases, and pests.
2011. For example, around 115,500 livestock were killed; about 5 mil- Adaptation to CC is taken to decrease the negative impact of CC
lion livestock survived, but they were also obliquely affected through and the furthermore adaptation could be classified into spatial both
disease and dislocation. The maximum damage about US$1.84 billion localized and widespread and may also be in the form of behavioral,
happened in the agricultural sector, predominantly to livestock and technological, institutional, informational, and financial adaptations.
fisheries. The total damage of US$3.7 billion has been estimated due The adaptation has been explained in terms of vulnerability to CC.
to floods in 2011. More than 2.5 million people were affected by The perception of an individual depends on experience, knowledge,
heavy rainfall and floods, and 367 persons died in the current floods and the observed impact of CC. For example, when there was a
in September 2014. Moreover, 250,000 farmers, 129,880 houses, change in temperature in 11 African countries, the farmers changed
and more than 1 million acres of cultivated land were affected. These crop varieties, increased conservation of water, and switched to non-
statistics demonstrate that agriculture has the sector most affected by farm activities, on the other hand, when there was a change in rainfall,
floods in Pakistan. then changed to plantation system accordingly. Though, it was
Pakistan is also deemed to be one of the highly vulnerable coun- observed that farmers who did not adopt any adaptation strategy
tries to CC. Pakistan was ranked 21st by the Global Climate Risk Index revealed that lacking credit, not have of information and access to land
in terms of exposure to extreme weather conditions for the period were the major factors which obstructed them from adapting to per-
from 1993 to 2012. The Pakistan economy is based on agriculture ceived change in climate.
field, and it contributes 19.8% to the GDP and employs about 42.3%
of the labour force. It is providing livelihood opportunities for approx-
imately 62% of the rural population. This country is facing serious 4 | THE CONTRIBUTION OF
challenges from changes in climate, such as a rise in temperature, AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES TO CC
droughts, floods, and losses in yields the country of Pakistan is
experiencing excessive climate events including high temperatures, Thornton and Lipper described that (Gebreegziabher et al., 2014) the
floods, shortage of water, droughts field, and increased attack of dis- agriculture field are contributing 30% to 40% of anthropogenic GHG
eases and pests. The ranking of Pakistan with respect to CC vulnera- emissions. In developing countries, the three quarters of agricultural
bility is bad, as it stood at 29th in the list of most susceptible GHG emissions occur, and this share may rise above 80% by 2050
countries during the year 2009–2010 and ranked 16th in 2010– (Figure 5). FAO report shows that the developing countries there is
2011 by the Global Climate Change Vulnerability Index. The strong a significant increase in GHG emission from 2001 to 2011 (14%),
floods starting from 2010 to 2014 and droughts ranging from 1999 the increase occurred, due to the total growth of agricultural outputs.
to 2003 are among the few examples related to CC events of Pakistan. Eighty percent of GHG emission from agriculture field in the Ethiopia
PRAVEEN AND SHARMA 9 of 15
side effect of fertilizers and all of these, agriculture is the most impor-
tant human source of nitrous oxide emissions. The nation of Ethiopia,
GHG emissions in 2010 from fertilizer use and N2O emission from
crop residues reintroduced into the soil are about 10 Mt CO2 equiva-
lent emissions and 3 Mt CO2 equivalent emissions in that order.
5 | D R A W B A C K S I N T HE S T U DI E S
TABLE 1 A general idea of agricultural greenhouse gasses with the trends as currently predicted.
Gasses
poverty line, apart from this, the population is increasing rapidly over issues. The role of civil societies and NGOs are also very limited
time, so that in the future along with Pakistan many other countries in creating awareness and generating pressure upon the govern-
may also face food security problem. All the government need to ment to act. As such, neither the political parties nor the govern-
come together to take action to overcome the problems of food secu- ment in power is interested in dealing with the issue on priority
rity, adequate food system, and CC (Ali et al., 2017). basis. The recently completed election in the world's largest
Impact of CC is very serious in developing countries due to their democracy, India is a burning example where CC has not been an
incomplete adaptive ability and need of technology, and also, they electoral issue at all. On the other hand, in the 2008–2009 U.S.
are the main emitter of noncarbon GHGs from their farm animals election, the civil society, NGO, media, and political groups were
and farm management mainly from the use of synesthetic compost. vehemently critical of President Bush's lackadaisical approach in
Indirect emitters such as land use change; from runoff and leaching fighting global warming.
of fertilizers; use of fossil fuels for automation; transport and agro- 4. Thorough vulnerability analysis and impact assessment for
chemical and compost production (Ali et al., 2017). enabling appropriate design and implementation of adaptation
PRAVEEN AND SHARMA 11 of 15
measures are lacking in almost all underdeveloped countries. emission means. As a result, the management activities are corre-
Countries are required to report on vulnerability analysis and lated and help us to adapt and mitigate CC. Agricultural activities
impact assessment along with related issues as a part of National are a relatively affordable form of mitigation option, for which many
Communications under UN‐FCCC. Although a majority of the technical options are already readily available (De Pinto, Magalhaes,
developed nations have submitted a third report to UNFCC and & Ringler, 2010).
done considerable progress in assessment, underdeveloped coun- Adoption of organic farming has the potential to sequester up to
tries are lagging far behind in this respect. the equivalent of 32% of all current man‐made GHGs emissions glob-
5. The developed world or regions have better technology for reduc- ally (De Pinto et al., 2010) Organic agriculture mainly a production sys-
ing GHG emissions. The developing or low‐income countries lack tem that sustains the health of soils people, and ecosystems. In
in such technology. Clean Development Mechanism under the organic farming or agriculture, the fertility of soil maintained mainly
Kyoto Protocol allows technological investment by industries of by farm internal inputs (production of legume, organic manures, rota-
the developed world, but unfortunately not many developing tions of crop widely, etc.) Energy demanding synthetic fertilizers and
countries could take advantage of it. Initiatives need to be taken plant protection agents are rejected; and there is less or no use of fos-
for the transfer of clean technology to developing countries at a sil fuel (Antwi‐Agyei, Dougill, Agyekum, & Stringer, 2017). In relation,
cheaper rate. we can improve the management of cropland including (minimum
use of synthetic fertilizers, reduced tillage practice, etc.). Reducing
6. The underdeveloped countries have a negligible contribution to
industrial livestock production and improving feeding and grazing land
environmental pollution in comparison with developed countries.
management, restoration of organic soils and degraded lands to
It is, however, not by mere choice but by economic compulsions
increase soil carbon sinks, improved water and rice management, land
too. It is therefore feared that with improvement in economic
use change and agroforestry, increasing efficiency in fertilizer produc-
well‐being in developing countries, their emissions are likely to
tion, and behavioral changes of food consumers (reducing the meat
increase manifold. In fact, the emission growth rate of some of
content) could also be main CC mitigation measures in agriculture sec-
the developing nations is one of the highest in the world. For
tor (Jordan, Müller, & Oudes, 2009).
example, between 1990 and 2004, emissions increased by 97%
Carbon sequestration in soils: organic agriculture removes polluted
in India which is one of the fastest rates of increase in the world
air and sequester carbon dioxide and does not compromise with yield.
(HDR, 2007–2008). Hence, the thrust of policy measures in such
In drought years, it increases yield because additional CO2 stored in
countries should be to check the rapid growth rate of emissions,
soil holds more water. During the wet season, additional organic mat-
unlike checking the absolute amount of emissions in developed
ter present in the soil wicks water away from plant root which restricts
countries. Seventh, developed countries, in particular, are incurring
erosion and plant stays in place. Thus, CC attributes benefits to adapt
huge infrastructure investment to account for future CC. This is
to higher highs (and lower lows).
particularly the case for long‐lived infrastructure that may be
Agricultural has both negative and positive ways; through emis-
exposed to CC impacts over its lifespan, or where business‐as‐
sions produced by GHGs but it has the best solution to reduce CC
usual activities would irreversibly constrain future adaptation to
impacts too including some technique and management practices.
the impacts of CC. Such schemes, though necessary in underdevel-
CC mitigation potential through reductions of GHG emissions and
oped countries, are rare (Mani et al. 2008).
the enhancement of agricultural confiscation (Jones & Carabine,
2013). Generally, when we implement adaptation measure, we
enhance the mitigation capacity of particular areas such as practising
8 AG RI CULT URE CO U LD BE A SO LUT ION
| different land use management such as soil and water management
FOR CC measure, manure and fertilizer management and others, the
agricultural field will help us to sequester a substantial amount of car-
The agricultural sector is very important which could be a solution to bon in the field and reduce emission of methane and nitrous oxide
reduce GHGs emissions and holds significant CC mitigation to raise which are the main GHG emission income. Agricultural activities are
of agricultural sequestration (Padgham, 2009). Additionally, it also a relatively affordable form of mitigation option, for which many tech-
plays a significant role to adopt climate variation or change. Adapta- nical options are already readily available (Enete & Amusa, 2010).
tion is not sufficient alone to complete the effects of CC and thus CC adaptation is a continuous process requiring a location‐specific
still need to be supplemented by congenial, mitigation efforts (van response. Adaptation should enable agricultural systems to be more
Vuuren et al., 2009). Generally, when we want to implement adapta- resilient to the consequences of CC. Farming systems and farmers will
tion measure, we improve mitigation capacity of an area for example differ enormously in their capacities to respond to CC. These adaptation
land use practice and its management in different way (fertilizer and measures could include in particular the choice and change of species
manure management, water and soil conservation measure). Agricul- and varieties, the adaptation of the field works to the calendar (more
tural sector it will help us to sequester a substantial amount of car- flexibility), the adaptation of plant production practices (i.e., fertilization,
bon in the field of agriculture and decrease emission of GHGs such plant protection, and irrigation), or the adoption of plant production
as nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide, and methane, which are the major practices that increase the soil organic matter content or the soil
12 of 15 PRAVEEN AND SHARMA
coverage by plants, manure management, and agroforestry practices. 8.5 | Livestock management
Some of them discussed how these practices serve as adaptation
means: It related to domestic animals and their waste management. Particu-
larly to adapt CC farmers from central Africa implement different
adaptation strategies such as breeding locally adapted livestock spe-
8.1 | Change crop variety
cies, diversifying livestock types, proper resource management prac-
Changes in crop variety is also a solution to reduce the emission of tices, and alternative feed production technologies. Mostly, uses of
green gas houses which resulted in CC in this method it exchanges agricultural by‐products or household and industrial waste products
or we can say switching from one crop variety to another in response are needed to produce feed.
to climatic stresses and changes. Studied and explained by Komba and The domestic animals waste management, manure should be col-
Muchapondwa (Ayal, Woldetisadik, Kassa, Tilahun, & Filho, 2017). lected as quickly as possible to limit GHG emission and to reach high
African country that is Tanzania, Tanzania's farmers try to adapt CC energy potential from manure. In South Asia and China, some live-
by using drought‐resistant crops. Introducing Avena species (Ingedo) stock producers are coming up with innovative ways of storing and
species in Ethiopia as a fodder crop and through time it replaces the removing animal waste and produce biogas and the device break
dominant stable crop, that is, barely in the highland and serve as one down biosolids in underground fermentation units which produce
means to adopt CC (Menon et al., 2007). gas for cooking, lighting, and energy for on‐farm activities.
Changes in cropping pattern could be the best technique to reduce Agroforestry is important to practice in agriculture sector where trees on
impacts of CC, we can use in crop cycle within a season. Researchers farms enhance the capacity of coping of small or poor farmers to CC risk
reported that many farmers in drought‐prone areas which are semiarid by crop and income diversification, water and soil conservation and effi-
climatic region of Brazil have realized several varieties of a single crop cient nutrient cycling conservation (Aid, 2008). Various researches are
species can occupy a common land area, incorporating several bean done on agroforestry in the West African country related to CC, and they
varieties, maize, and sorghum, among others, to increase harvest focused on its carbon sequestration potential and effect on soil fertility
potential arid climate stresses (Komba & Muchapondwa, 2012) simi- (Lipper, Dutilly‐Diane, & McCarthy, 2010). In the same manner, most
larly, Ethiopia country where farmers try to adapt CC by planting central Africa countries reported that significant crop yield increases such
diversifies crops (homestead maize and other crops). as sorghum, maize, millet, cotton, and groundnut when grown in proxim-
ity to Faidherbia albida tree (Müller, 2009). Agroforestry plays a signifi-
cant role to reduce greenhouse emission and present an opportunity to
8.3 | Change in cropping calendar counter the bad impacts of CC through joint action of adaption and mit-
igation (Steinfeld, Gerber, Wassenaar, Castel, & de Haan, 2006).
Changes in cropping calendar could be another common adaptation to
CC at the farm level, which largely involves altering the timing of farm
activities to suit climatic variations or changes. In the Philippines,
9 | D R A W B A C K S I N E X I S TI N G L I T E R A T U R E
farmers adapt to the early onset of the rainy season through the early
cultivation of upland farms, which results in high agricultural produc-
• Existing literature reported that this is in fact agriculture is also a
tion for the season and higher household income from farm activities.
cause of CC and land/environment degradation but study avoids
Changing planting dates of crops helps greatly for the farmers live in
this.
East Gojam (Choke Mountain in Ethiopia) and East Hararghe for cli-
• Literature tells that we already know that CC resulting floods,
mate changing adaptation, respectively. Another study explained that
drought, fog, cyclone, earthquake, and crop disease which had a
one African country that is Tanzania, where farmers also used planting
negative and significant impact on agriculture productivity, the vul-
date changing practice to adapt CC (62).
nerability of the poor in terms of loss of livelihood and food secu-
rity but we could not include this natural disaster information
8.4 | Farm management practices (Yohannes, 2016).
by Smith et al. (Takimoto, Nair, & Nair, 2008). And there are many con- On the contrary, with the help of the farming methods in the right
ditions considered as the main barrier to mitigate CC; it needs long way could be the major solution for climate variation or change by
time (15–60 years) to obtain maximum storage that is carbon seques- mitigation and adaption response. CC mitigation is not ample so
tration in soils or terrestrial biomass, depending on management prac- long‐term solution but it is very important to combine CC adaption
tice, management history, and the system being modified. Costs that in the agriculture sector. For instance, agroforestry, organic farming,
are related to measurement and monitoring and transaction cost manure management and so on.
(incentive‐based system) also another barrier: When there is lack of The important relationship between the agriculture sector and CC
clear ownership about the land results in less incentive to implement become widely known. In recently, even if the emphasis is not ade-
different land management activities become another problem. On quate, the significant relation of CC and agriculture sector becomes
the other hand, according to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, acknowledged. These all conventions, agreements internationally play
there are often technological and financial limits that prevent the scale an important role in research attention.
of adaptation that we would need. Agriculture is an important sector for livelihood and employment
The other barriers mentioned by FAO2011 are funding and imple- particularly in developing countries, it has significant repentance for
mentation barriers. Nhemachena and Hassan (Smith et al., 2007) iden- CC disruption to improve the condition in this sector attention should
tify the important determinants of adaptation in South Africa, Zambia, give more but presently attention in this situation is very slow. It is
and Zimbabwe as access to credit and extension and also awareness. very important to spread more awareness and research in this sector.
Ishaya and Abaje (Nhemachena & Hassan, 2007) also found that lack It is very clear that CC has a significant negative role especially for
of awareness and knowledge about CC and adaptation strategies, lack low‐income or underdeveloped countries farmers. So proper mitiga-
of capital and improved seeds, and lack of water for irrigation played tion and adaptation measure implementation should be extensively
an important role in hindering adaptation in Nigeria. Similarly, Okolo used in this field.
et al. (Ishaya & Abaje, 2008) study finding revealed that policy barrier There are various convections and international agreement about
such as lack of local context and little attention to the local situation, climate variation or change and agriculture responsible for to spread
limited capacity to implement the policy, and lack of coordination hin- information extensively over globe still need more concern on this
der farmers' to practice different adaptation activities. Bryan et al. nexus as they distress about Carbon dioxide emission and assistant
(Okolo, Twyman, Ampaire, & Acosta, 2015) study in Ethiopia and which should start from local farmers is very important.
South Africa access to credit is the main barrier that affects CC adap-
tation by farmers. Another study done by Amdu, in Ethiopia, reported ORCID
that lack of knowledge, improper policy and lack of land use policy Bushra Praveen [Link]
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Seo, S. N., & Mendelsohn, R. (2008). An analysis of crop choice: Adapting Brushra Praveen is full‐time PhD scholar at the school of Human-
to climate change in South American farms. Ecological Economics, ities and Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT)
67(1), 109–116. Indore. Her research interest covers climate change and its
Smith, P., Martino, D., Cai, Z., Gwary, D., Janzen, H., Kumar, P., … Rice, C. impacts on agriculture and future forecasting in India.
(2007). Policy and technological constraints to implementation of
greenhouse gas mitigation options in agriculture. Agriculture, Ecosys-
tems & Environment, 118(1–4), 6–28. [Link] Pritee Sharma is working with IIT Indore as the dean (administra-
agee.2006.06.006 tion) and an associate professor (economics). She received her
Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., … PhD from the IIT Bombay (India). She has published several
Miller, H. L. (2007). Contribution of working group I to the fourth assess- research papers in reputed international journal related to WTO,
ment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, 2007. agricultural productivity, rural development, and land policies.
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
She has expertise in rural poverty, climate change, agricultural pro-
Steinfeld, H., Gerber, P., Wassenaar, T., Castel, V., & de Haan, C. (Eds).
ductivity, land development policies, food security, and energy‐
(2006). Livestock's long shadow: Environmental issues and options. Rome:
FAO. related issues.
Takimoto, A., Nair, P. K., & Nair, V. D. (2008). Carbon stock and sequestra-
tion potential of traditional and improved agroforestry systems in the
West African Sahel. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 125(1‐4),
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culture. Greenpeace Research Laboratories, University of Exeter, United
Kingdom.
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literature on climate change and its impacts on agriculture
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