Amazon.com Inc. Valuation Analysis
Amazon.com Inc. Valuation Analysis
Valuation Model
AMZN
Notes
[Link], Inc. Average Implied Value: $3,685
Valuation Date: 3/20/2021 Recommendation: Buy
Historical and Forecast Financial Performance (US$ Billions) Valuation Summary - Equity Value per Share ($)
Total Revenue Net Earnings & EBITDA Revenue Composition (2020A) Average Implied
$140,000 Value: $3,735
$1,200,000 Net Earnings
$120,000 EBITDA (Excluding SBC) Current Share Price:
$1,000,000 $3,075
6% Online Stores
$100,000
12% Physical Stores
$800,000
Retail Third-Party
$80,000 Seller Services
7%
$600,000 Subscription Services
$60,000 51%
AWS
$400,000 Other
$40,000 21%
$200,000 $20,000 4% SOTP $525 $1,846$2,456 $3,375
$2,119 $3,700$3,531 $5,200 $6,163 $7,472
$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000
$0 $0
2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A
Implied Value Summary
All Amounts Denominated in US$MM Unless Otherwise Stated
Enterprise Value
Low Mid High
Total Revenues
$2,500,000 Base Case Bull Case Bear Case
$2,000,000
$1,500,000
$1,000,000
$500,000
$0
2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
$0
2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E
$0
2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E
2020A 2031E
6%
18%
Online Stores 12%
Physical Stores 33%
Retail Third-Party Seller 7%
Services 51% 15%
Subscription Services
AWS 21%
Other 9% 1%
24%
4%
Inputs and Assumptions (Control Panel)
All Amounts Denominated in US$MM Unless Otherwise Stated
General Assumptions Income Statement Assumptions Toggles and Controls (DO NOT DELETE)
Scenario Base Revenue Forecast Assumptions Scenario Selection Toggle
Base Based on Base Estimates and Demonstrated Historical Growth 1
Input Defined Name Base Case Annual Growth Taper 20.0% Bull Base (+) 25%. 2
Subject Company [Link], Inc. _CompanyName Bull Case Growth (+ Base %) 25.0% Bear Base (-) 25%. 3
Valuation Date 2021/03/20 _Vdate Bear Case Growth (- Base %) -25.0% Other No Growth (Flat) 4
Base Based on Base Estimates and Demonstrated Historical Growth 1
Last Fiscal Year End Before Valuation Date 2020/12/31 Expense Forecast Assumptions
Next Fiscal Year End After Valuation Date 2021/12/31 _YEdate_After Cost of Sales 61.4% Terminal Value Methodology Toggle
Terminal Value: Exit Multiple 1
Rounding 1,000 _RoundBillions Fulfillment 14.3% Terminal Value: Perpetual Growth 2
Marketing 10.9% Terminal Value: Average 3
Technology and Content 7.2% Terminal Value: Average 3
Valuation Assumptions General and Administrative 1.9%
Other Operating Expense (Net) 0.1% Sensitivities Control
5-Year Average Tax Rate 32.2% _TaxRate Defined Name Input
Interest Rate 3.0% Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) (% of SG&A) 6.8% WACC _WACC 8.0%
Terminal Value EBITDA Multiple 25.0x
DCF Assumptions Base Case Annual Growth Taper 20%
Terminal Value Methodology Terminal Value: Average Balance Sheet Forecast Assumptions Cost of Sales (% Revenue) 61%
Terminal Value EBITDA Multiple 25.0x
Long-Term Growth Rate 4.0% _LTGrowth Current Asset & Liabilities
WACC 8.0% Accounts Accounts
Recivable Payables Inventory
WACC Assumptions Low High Days Outstanding 25 85 45
Risk Free Rate 2.4% 2.4%
Equity Risk Premium 4.6% 4.6% Accrued Expenses (% of Revenue) 10.7%
Country Risk Premium 0.0% 0.0% Unearned Revenue (% of Revenue) 2.9%
Size Premium 0.0% 0.0% Annual Growth in Marketable Securities 4.0%
Company Specific Risk Premium 1.0% 2.0%
Target Capital Structure (% Debt) 5.0% 10.0%
Property & Equipment
Target Price Thresholds (Versus Current Price) Cash Capex (% of Revenue) 5.8%
Sell -15.0% Asset Average Useful Life 10 years
Hold 0.0%
Buy 15.0%
Operating & Finance Leases
Financial Forecast
All Amounts Denominated in US$MM Unless Otherwise Stated
2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E
Time Periods
BOP 1/1/2016 1/1/2017 1/1/2018 1/1/2019 1/1/2020 1/1/2021 1/1/2022 1/1/2023 1/1/2024 1/1/2025 1/1/2026 1/1/2027 1/1/2028 1/1/2029 1/1/2030 1/1/2031
EOP 12/31/2016 12/31/2017 12/31/2018 12/31/2019 12/31/2020 12/31/2021 12/31/2022 12/31/2023 12/31/2024 12/31/2025 12/31/2026 12/31/2027 12/31/2028 12/31/2029 12/31/2030 12/31/2031
Days 366 365 365 365 366 365 365 365 366 365 365 365 366 365 365 365
Historical Analysis and Projections
Segmented Revenue Growth
Online Stores 18.5% 13.5% 14.8% 39.7% 21.6% 17.3% 13.9% 11.1% 8.9% 7.1% 5.7% 4.5% 3.6% 2.9% 2.3%
Physical Stores na 197.1% -0.2% -5.6% 5.0% 4.0% 3.2% 2.6% 2.0% 1.6% 1.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5%
Retail Third-Party Seller Services 38.7% 34.1% 25.8% 49.7% 37.0% 29.6% 23.7% 19.0% 15.2% 12.1% 9.7% 7.8% 6.2% 5.0% 4.0%
Retail Subscription Services 52.0% 45.7% 35.6% 31.2% 41.1% 32.9% 26.3% 21.1% 16.9% 13.5% 10.8% 8.6% 6.9% 5.5% 4.4%
AWS 42.9% 46.9% 36.5% 29.5% 39.0% 31.2% 24.9% 20.0% 16.0% 12.8% 10.2% 8.2% 6.5% 5.2% 4.2%
Other 57.7% 117.2% 39.3% 52.3% 66.7% 53.3% 42.7% 34.1% 27.3% 21.8% 17.5% 14.0% 11.2% 8.9% 7.2%
Total Net Sales 30.8% 30.9% 20.5% 37.6% 30.0% 25.0% 20.7% 17.1% 14.0% 11.5% 9.4% 7.6% 6.2% 5.0% 4.0%
Income Statement
2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E
Segmented Revenue
Online Stores $91,431 $108,354 $122,987 $141,247 $197,346 $240,061 $281,628 $320,641 $356,174 $387,751 $415,252 $438,813 $458,732 $475,390 $489,200 $500,570 1P
Physical Stores - $5,798 $17,224 $17,192 $16,227 $17,038 $17,720 $18,287 $18,755 $19,139 $19,453 $19,708 $19,914 $20,081 $20,216 $20,325 1P
Retail Third-Party Seller Services $22,993 $31,881 $42,745 $53,762 $80,461 $110,265 $142,941 $176,827 $210,363 $242,280 $271,688 $298,069 $321,224 $341,187 $358,150 $372,394 3P
Subscription Services $6,394 $9,721 $14,168 $19,210 $25,207 $35,579 $47,290 $59,743 $72,329 $84,519 $95,915 $106,261 $115,430 $123,398 $130,213 $135,966 Subs
AWS $12,219 $17,459 $25,655 $35,026 $45,370 $63,052 $82,709 $103,339 $123,959 $143,746 $162,103 $178,664 $193,266 $205,903 $216,673 $225,740 Cloud
Other $2,950 $4,653 $10,108 $14,085 $21,453 $35,753 $54,817 $78,202 $104,890 $133,528 $162,692 $191,120 $217,836 $242,196 $263,864 $282,749 Advertising
Total Net Sales $135,987 $177,866 $232,887 $280,522 $386,064 $501,747 $627,106 $757,039 $886,471 $1,010,964 $1,127,103 $1,232,635 $1,326,402 $1,408,155 $1,478,316 $1,537,743
Operating Expenses:
Cost of Sales $88,265 $111,934 $139,156 $165,536 $233,307 $308,106 $385,085 $464,873 $544,352 $620,799 $692,116 $756,920 $814,499 $864,701 $907,784 $944,277
Fulfillment $17,619 $23,049 $30,627 $36,563 $53,498 $66,422 $82,491 $98,834 $114,735 $129,579 $142,911 $154,449 $164,071 $171,785 $177,694 $181,959
Operating Lease Expense - $2,200 $3,400 $3,669 $5,019 $5,089 $6,887 $9,062 $11,609 $14,508 $17,728 $21,231 $24,973 $28,911 $33,002 $37,206
Marketing $7,233 $22,620 $28,837 $35,931 $42,740 $54,488 $68,101 $82,212 $96,267 $109,787 $122,399 $133,859 $144,042 $152,920 $160,539 $166,993
Technology and Content $16,085 $10,069 $13,814 $18,878 $22,008 $35,976 $44,965 $54,281 $63,562 $72,488 $80,816 $88,383 $95,106 $100,968 $105,999 $110,260
General and Administrative $2,432 $3,674 $4,336 $5,203 $6,668 $9,330 $11,661 $14,078 $16,484 $18,799 $20,959 $22,922 $24,665 $26,185 $27,490 $28,595
Other Operating Expense, net $167 $214 $296 $201 ($75) $424 $530 $640 $749 $854 $952 $1,041 $1,121 $1,190 $1,249 $1,299
Total Operating Expenses $131,801 $173,760 $220,466 $265,981 $363,165 $479,835 $599,720 $723,979 $847,758 $966,814 $1,077,882 $1,178,805 $1,268,478 $1,346,661 $1,413,757 $1,470,589
Operating Income $4,186 $4,106 $12,421 $14,541 $22,899 $21,911 $27,386 $33,060 $38,712 $44,149 $49,221 $53,830 $57,924 $61,495 $64,558 $67,154
Interest Income $100 $202 $440 $832 $555 $1,270 $1,733 $2,709 $3,811 $5,021 $6,414 $7,913 $9,522 $11,293 $13,266 $15,455
Interest Expense ($484) ($848) ($1,417) ($1,600) ($1,647) ($1,316) ($1,631) ($1,988) ($2,369) ($2,788) ($3,224) ($3,639) ($4,088) ($4,512) ($4,882) ($5,200)
Other Income (Expense), net $90 $346 ($183) $203 $2,371 $1,691 $1,759 $1,829 $1,902 $1,978 $2,057 $2,140 $2,225 $2,314 $2,407 $2,503
Total Non-Operating Income (Expense) ($294) ($300) ($1,160) ($565) $1,279 $1,646 $1,861 $2,550 $3,344 $4,211 $5,248 $6,413 $7,659 $9,094 $10,791 $12,758
Income Before Income Taxes $3,892 $3,806 $11,261 $13,976 $24,178 $23,557 $29,246 $35,611 $42,056 $48,360 $54,469 $60,242 $65,584 $70,589 $75,349 $79,911
Provision for Income Taxes ($1,425) ($769) ($1,197) ($2,374) ($2,863) ($7,585) ($9,417) ($11,467) ($13,542) ($15,572) ($17,539) ($19,398) ($21,118) ($22,730) ($24,263) ($25,731)
Equity-Method Investment Activity, net of tax ($96) ($4) $9 ($14) $16
Net Income $2,371 $3,033 $10,073 $11,588 $21,331 $15,972 $19,829 $24,144 $28,514 $32,788 $36,930 $40,844 $44,466 $47,859 $51,087 $54,180
Basic Earnings per Share 5.00 6.32 20.68 23.46 42.66 31.94 39.66 48.29 57.03 65.58 73.86 81.69 88.93 95.72 102.17 108.36
Diluted Earnings per Share 4.90 6.15 20.15 22.99 41.83 31.32 38.88 47.34 55.91 64.29 72.41 80.09 87.19 93.84 100.17 106.24
Weighted-Average Shares used in Computation of Earnings per Share:
Basic 474 480 487 494 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500
Diluted 484 493 500 504 510 510 510 510 510 510 510 510 510 510 510 510
Balance Sheet
2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E
Current Assets:
Cash and Cash Equivalents $19,334 $20,522 $31,750 $36,092 $42,122 $57,570 $90,143 $126,893 $167,282 $213,758 $263,743 $317,439 $376,516 $442,371 $515,395 $586,723
Restricted Cash $265 $1,334 $423 $318 $255 $255 $255 $255 $255 $255 $255 $255 $255 $255 $255 $255
Marketable Securities $6,647 $10,464 $9,500 $18,929 $42,274 $43,965 $45,724 $47,553 $49,455 $51,433 $53,490 $55,630 $57,855 $60,169 $62,576 $65,079
Inventories $11,461 $16,047 $17,174 $20,497 $23,795 $38,355 $47,938 $57,871 $67,580 $77,282 $86,160 $94,227 $101,118 $107,644 $113,008 $117,550
Accounts Receivable, net and other $8,074 $11,835 $16,259 $20,540 $24,309 $34,359 $43,002 $51,960 $60,716 $69,466 $77,473 $84,749 $90,964 $96,850 $101,687 $105,784
Total Current Assets $45,781 $60,202 $75,106 $96,376 $132,755 $174,504 $227,062 $284,531 $345,288 $412,194 $481,121 $552,299 $626,708 $707,289 $792,920 $875,391
Property And Equipment, net $29,114 $48,866 $61,797 $72,705 $113,114 $146,049 $185,391 $230,279 $279,338 $330,790 $382,593 $436,659 $487,770 $532,840 $569,966 $610,726
Operating leases - - - $25,141 $37,553 $50,903 $67,181 $86,242 $107,766 $131,291 $156,252 $182,031 $207,998 $233,539 $258,086 $281,123
Goodwill $3,784 $13,350 $14,548 $14,754 $15,017 $15,017 $15,017 $15,017 $15,017 $15,017 $15,017 $15,017 $15,017 $15,017 $15,017 $15,017
Other Assets $4,723 $8,892 $11,197 $16,272 $22,756 $22,756 $22,756 $22,756 $22,756 $22,756 $22,756 $22,756 $22,756 $22,756 $22,756 $22,756
Total Assets $83,402 $131,310 $162,648 $225,248 $321,195 $409,229 $517,406 $638,825 $770,165 $912,048 $1,057,738 $1,208,763 $1,360,248 $1,511,441 $1,658,745 $1,805,014
Check 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cash Flow Statement
2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E
Cash, Cash Equivalents, And Restricted Cash, Beginning Of Period $15,890 $19,934 $21,856 $32,173 $36,410 $42,377 $57,825 $90,398 $127,148 $167,537 $214,013 $263,998 $317,694 $376,771 $442,626 $515,650
Operating Activities:
Net Income $2,371 $3,033 $10,073 $11,588 $21,331 $15,972 $19,829 $24,144 $28,514 $32,788 $36,930 $40,844 $44,466 $47,859 $51,087 $54,180
Adjustments to Reconcile Net Income to Net Cash from Operating Activities:
Depreciation and Amortization $8,116 $11,478 $15,341 $21,789 $25,251 $18,380 $24,793 $32,535 $41,602 $51,941 $63,468 $71,997 $84,543 $98,944 $114,063 $116,507
Stock-Based Compensation $2,975 $4,215 $5,418 $6,864 $9,208 $11,760 $14,698 $17,743 $20,776 $23,694 $26,416 $28,890 $31,087 $33,003 $34,648 $36,041
Other Non-Cash Expense, net ($106) ($119) $934 $711 ($3,207) ($1,691) ($1,759) ($1,829) ($1,902) ($1,978) ($2,057) ($2,140) ($2,225) ($2,314) ($2,407) ($2,503)
Investing Activities:
Purchases of Property and Equipment, Including Internal-Use Software and Websi ($7,804) ($11,955) ($13,427) ($16,861) ($40,140) ($29,173) ($36,462) ($44,017) ($51,542) ($58,781) ($65,533) ($71,669) ($77,121) ($81,875) ($85,954) ($89,409)
Proceeds from Property and Equipment Incentives $1,067 $1,897 $2,104 $4,172 $5,096
Acquisitions, net of cash acquired, and other ($116) ($13,972) ($2,186) ($2,461) ($2,325)
Sales (Purchases) of Marketable Securities, net ($3,023) ($3,054) $1,140 ($9,131) ($22,242)
Net Cash Provided by (used in) Investing Activities ($9,876) ($27,084) ($12,369) ($24,281) ($59,611) ($29,173) ($36,462) ($44,017) ($51,542) ($58,781) ($65,533) ($71,669) ($77,121) ($81,875) ($85,954) ($89,409)
Financing Activities:
Proceeds (Repayments) from Long-Term Debt and Other $267 $14,927 $100 ($411) $9,591 ($1,155) ($1,629) ($2,283) ($3,355) ($2,251) ($3,750) ($3,750) ($3,750) ($3,750) ($3,750) ($2,393)
Principal repayments of Finance Leases ($4,007) ($4,799) ($7,449) ($9,628) ($10,642) ($5,127) ($7,894) ($11,235) ($15,147) ($19,608) ($24,582) ($27,691) ($32,962) ($39,175) ($45,699) ($50,271)
Principal repayments of Financing Obligations - ($200) ($337) ($27) ($53)
Proceeds from Issuing Equity (Common, Treasury, Paid-in, etc) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Payment of Dividends - - - - -
Net Cash Provided by (used in) Financing Activities ($3,740) $9,928 ($7,686) ($10,066) ($1,104) ($6,282) ($9,523) ($13,518) ($18,502) ($21,859) ($28,332) ($31,441) ($36,712) ($42,925) ($49,449) ($52,664)
Foreign currency effect on cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash ($212) $713 ($351) $70 $618
Net Increase (Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents $3,444 $1,922 $10,317 $4,237 $5,967 $15,448 $32,573 $36,750 $40,389 $46,476 $49,984 $53,696 $59,078 $65,854 $73,024 $71,328
Cash, Cash Equivalents, And Restricted Cash, End Of Period $19,334 $21,856 $32,173 $36,410 $42,377 $57,825 $90,398 $127,148 $167,537 $214,013 $263,998 $317,694 $376,771 $442,626 $515,650 $586,978
Supporting Schedules
2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E
Restricted Cash and equivalents
Cash and Cash Equivalents $19,334 $20,522 $31,750 $36,092 $42,122 $57,570 $90,143 $126,893 $167,282 $213,758 $263,743 $317,439 $376,516 $442,371 $515,395 $586,723
Restricted Cash Included In Accounts Receivable, Net and Other $265 $1,329 $418 $276 $233 $233 $233 $233 $233 $233 $233 $233 $233 $233 $233 $233
Restricted Cash Included in Other Assets - $5 $5 $42 $22 $22 $22 $22 $22 $22 $22 $22 $22 $22 $22 $22
Total cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash shown in the consolidated $19,599 $21,856 $32,173 $36,410 $42,377 $57,825 $90,398 $127,148 $167,537 $214,013 $263,998 $317,694 $376,771 $442,626 $515,650 $586,978
PP&E Schedule
PP&E Opening Balance, Net $13,437 $18,075 $31,101 $39,097 $45,305 $81,514 $99,618 $121,365 $146,266 $173,537 $202,169 $231,000 $258,800 $284,340 $306,446 $324,036
Plus: Capex $6,737 $10,058 $11,323 $12,689 $35,044 $29,173 $36,462 $44,017 $51,542 $58,781 $65,533 $71,669 $77,121 $81,875 $85,954 $89,409
Plus: Other Net Additions $2,217 $9,046 $4,714 $5,208 $17,916
Depreciation on Existing PP&E ($8,151) ($8,151) ($8,151) ($8,151) ($8,151) ($8,151) ($8,151) ($8,151) ($8,151) ($8,151) -
Less: Total Depreciation Expense ($4,316) ($6,078) ($8,041) ($11,689) ($16,751) ($11,069) ($14,715) ($19,117) ($24,271) ($30,149) ($36,702) ($43,869) ($51,581) ($59,769) ($68,364) ($66,236)
PP&E Closing Balance, Net, Not Including Capital/Finance Leases $18,075 $31,101 $39,097 $45,305 $81,514 $99,618 $121,365 $146,266 $173,537 $202,169 $231,000 $258,800 $284,340 $306,446 $324,036 $347,209
Depreciation on Existing ROU Assets ($5,097) ($5,097) ($5,097) ($5,097) ($5,097) ($5,097) ($1,019) - - - -
Less: Total Depreciation Expense ($3,800) ($5,400) ($7,300) ($10,100) ($8,500) ($7,311) ($10,078) ($13,419) ($17,331) ($21,792) ($26,766) ($28,128) ($32,962) ($39,175) ($45,699) ($50,271)
Right-of-use Asset Ending Balance $11,039 $17,765 $22,700 $27,400 $31,600 $46,430 $64,025 $84,013 $105,801 $128,621 $151,593 $177,859 $203,430 $226,394 $245,930 $263,518
Total Property And Equipment, net $29,114 $48,866 $61,797 $72,705 $113,114 $146,049 $185,391 $230,279 $279,338 $330,790 $382,593 $436,659 $487,770 $532,840 $569,966 $610,726
Less: Lease Payments on New Lease Liabilities $2,214 $5,400 $9,217 $13,656 $18,682 $24,242 $30,270 $36,697 $43,447 $50,453 $55,435
Ending Balance, New Lease Liabilities - - - - - $19,927 $42,619 $67,704 $94,588 $122,505 $150,573 $177,859 $203,430 $226,394 $245,930 $263,518
Ending Balance, Long-term Finance Lease Liabilities $11,660 $19,304 $24,423 $26,979 $28,434 $35,074 $54,853 $77,025 $100,996 $126,001 $151,156 $177,859 $203,430 $226,394 $245,930 $263,518
Less: Current Portion of Finance Leases ($4,111) ($6,121) ($8,131) ($9,884) ($10,374)
Ending Balance, Long-Term Finance Lease Liabilities $7,549 $13,183 $16,292 $17,095 $18,060 $35,074 $54,853 $77,025 $100,996 $126,001 $151,156 $177,859 $203,430 $226,394 $245,930 $263,518
Finance Leases - Total Interest Expense $379 $737 $1,152 $1,618 $2,121 $2,646 $3,174 $3,735 $4,272 $4,754 $5,165
Finance Leases - Total Principal Repayments $5,127 $7,894 $11,235 $15,147 $19,608 $24,582 $27,691 $32,962 $39,175 $45,699 $50,271
Amortization on Existing ROU Assets ($3,054) ($3,054) ($3,054) ($3,054) ($3,054) ($3,054) ($3,054) ($3,054) ($3,054) ($3,054) ($3,054)
Amortization on New ROU Assets ($1,172) ($2,636) ($4,404) ($6,474) ($8,835) ($11,468) ($14,346) ($17,444) ($20,732) ($24,185) ($27,776)
Less: Total Amortization Expense ($3,805) ($4,226) ($5,691) ($7,458) ($9,529) ($11,890) ($14,522) ($17,401) ($20,498) ($23,787) ($27,239) ($30,830)
Right-of-use Asset Ending Balance - - - $25,141 $37,553 $50,903 $67,181 $86,242 $107,766 $131,291 $156,252 $182,031 $207,998 $233,539 $258,086 $281,123
Operating Lease Liability
Existing Lease Liabilities
Beginning Balance, Existing Lease Liability $34,513 $31,459 $28,405 $25,350 $22,296 $19,242 $16,188 $13,133 $10,079 $7,025 $3,971
Plus: Interest $863 $786 $710 $634 $557 $481 $405 $328 $252 $176 $99
Less: Lease Payments on Existing Lease Liability ($3,917) ($3,841) ($3,764) ($3,688) ($3,612) ($3,535) ($3,459) ($3,383) ($3,306) ($3,230) ($3,154)
Ending Balance, Existing Lease Liability - - - - - $31,459 $28,405 $25,350 $22,296 $19,242 $16,188 $13,133 $10,079 $7,025 $3,971 $916
Less: Lease Payments on New Lease Liabilities - - - - - $1,172 $3,046 $5,298 $7,921 $10,896 $14,193 $17,772 $21,590 $25,604 $29,772 $34,053
Ending Balance, New Lease Liabilities - - - - - $16,405 $35,736 $57,851 $82,430 $109,009 $137,025 $165,858 $194,879 $223,474 $251,075 $277,167
Ending Balance, Total Operating Lease Liabilities $20,865 $25,835 $39,099 $47,863 $64,141 $83,202 $104,726 $128,251 $153,212 $178,991 $204,958 $230,499 $255,046 $278,083
Less: Current Portion of Operating Lease Liabilities ($3,139) ($4,586)
Ending Balance, Long-Term Operating Lease Liabilities - - $20,865 $22,696 $34,513 $47,863 $64,141 $83,202 $104,726 $128,251 $153,212 $178,991 $204,958 $230,499 $255,046 $278,083
Total Operating Lease Expense $2,200 $3,400 $3,669 $5,089 $6,887 $9,062 $11,609 $14,508 $17,728 $21,231 $24,973 $28,911 $33,002 $37,206
Interest Expense on Long-Term Debt $484 $848 $1,417 $1,600 $1,647 $936 $895 $836 $751 $667 $577 $465 $353 $240 $128 $36
Interest Rate on Long-Term Debt 2.68% 3.08% 3.25% 2.98%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) $2,975 $4,215 $5,418 $6,864 $9,208 $11,760 $14,698 $17,743 $20,776 $23,694 $26,416 $28,890 $31,087 $33,003 $34,648 $36,041
EBITDA (Excluding SBC) $15,277 $19,799 $33,180 $43,194 $57,358 $52,051 $66,877 $83,339 $101,091 $119,784 $139,105 $154,716 $173,554 $193,442 $213,269 $219,701
2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E
Time Periods
BOP 1/1/2016 1/1/2017 1/1/2018 1/1/2019 1/1/2020 1/1/2021 1/1/2022 1/1/2023 1/1/2024 1/1/2025 1/1/2026 1/1/2027 1/1/2028
EOP 12/31/2016 12/31/2017 12/31/2018 12/31/2019 12/31/2020 12/31/2021 12/31/2022 12/31/2023 12/31/2024 12/31/2025 12/31/2026 12/31/2027 12/31/2028
Days 366 365 365 365 366 365 365 365 366 365 365 365 366
LIVE CASE
Segmented Revenue Growth
Online Stores 21.6% 17.3% 13.9% 11.1% 8.9% 7.1% 5.7% 4.5%
Physical Stores 5.0% 4.0% 3.2% 2.6% 2.0% 1.6% 1.3% 1.0%
Retail Third-Party Seller Services 37.0% 29.6% 23.7% 19.0% 15.2% 12.1% 9.7% 7.8%
Retail Subscription Services 41.1% 32.9% 26.3% 21.1% 16.9% 13.5% 10.8% 8.6%
AWS 39.0% 31.2% 24.9% 20.0% 16.0% 12.8% 10.2% 8.2%
Other 66.7% 53.3% 42.7% 34.1% 27.3% 21.8% 17.5% 14.0%
Total Net Sales 30.0% 25.0% 20.7% 17.1% 14.0% 11.5% 9.4% 7.6%
Base CASE
Segmented Revenue Growth
Online Stores 21.6% 17.3% 13.9% 11.1% 8.9% 7.1% 5.7% 4.5%
Physical Stores 5.0% 4.0% 3.2% 2.6% 2.0% 1.6% 1.3% 1.0%
Retail Third-Party Seller Services 37.0% 29.6% 23.7% 19.0% 15.2% 12.1% 9.7% 7.8%
Retail Subscription Services 41.1% 32.9% 26.3% 21.1% 16.9% 13.5% 10.8% 8.6%
AWS 39.0% 31.2% 24.9% 20.0% 16.0% 12.8% 10.2% 8.2%
Other 66.7% 53.3% 42.7% 34.1% 27.3% 21.8% 17.5% 14.0%
Total Net Sales
BULL CASE
Segmented Revenue Growth
Online Stores 27.1% 21.6% 17.3% 13.9% 11.1% 8.9% 7.1% 5.7%
Physical Stores 6.3% 5.0% 4.0% 3.2% 2.6% 2.0% 1.6% 1.3%
Retail Third-Party Seller Services 46.3% 37.0% 29.6% 23.7% 19.0% 15.2% 12.1% 9.7%
Retail Subscription Services 51.4% 41.1% 32.9% 26.3% 21.1% 16.9% 13.5% 10.8%
AWS 48.7% 39.0% 31.2% 24.9% 20.0% 16.0% 12.8% 10.2%
Other 83.3% 66.7% 53.3% 42.7% 34.1% 27.3% 21.8% 17.5%
Total Net Sales
BEAR CASE
Segmented Revenue Growth
Online Stores 16.2% 13.0% 10.4% 8.3% 6.6% 5.3% 4.3% 3.4%
Physical Stores 3.8% 3.0% 2.4% 1.9% 1.5% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8%
Retail Third-Party Seller Services 27.8% 22.2% 17.8% 14.2% 11.4% 9.1% 7.3% 5.8%
Retail Subscription Services 30.9% 24.7% 19.8% 15.8% 12.6% 10.1% 8.1% 6.5%
AWS 29.2% 23.4% 18.7% 15.0% 12.0% 9.6% 7.7% 6.1%
Other 50.0% 40.0% 32.0% 25.6% 20.5% 16.4% 13.1% 10.5%
Total Net Sales
OTHER CASE
Segmented Revenue Growth
Online Stores 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Physical Stores 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Retail Third-Party Seller Services 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Retail Subscription Services 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AWS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Other 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Total Net Sales
2029E 2030E 2031E
2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Time Periods
Valuation Date / Fiscal Year-End 3/20/2021 12/31/2021 12/31/2022 12/31/2023 12/31/2024 12/31/2025 12/31/2026 12/31/2027 12/31/2028 12/31/2029 12/31/2030 12/31/2031
Date for NPV Calculation 3/20/2021 8/10/2021 7/1/2022 7/1/2023 7/1/2024 7/1/2025 7/1/2026 7/1/2027 7/1/2028 7/1/2029 7/1/2030 7/1/2031
Year Fraction 0.78 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
EBITDA (Excluding SBC) $52,051 $66,877 $83,339 $101,091 $119,784 $139,105 $154,716 $173,554 $193,442 $213,269 $219,701
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) $20,614 $40,835 $48,539 $56,624 $65,480 $74,758 $80,789 $90,596 $102,614 $115,157 $115,342
Terminal Value
Terminal Value: Exit Multiple $5,492,532
Terminal Value: Perpetual Growth $2,998,884
Terminal Value: Average $4,245,708
Amazon 3P
Retail Third-Party Seller Services $110,265
Total Amazon 3P $110,265 4.2x 7.9x 13.7x $458,344 $872,558 $1,512,537
Advertising
Other $35,753
Total Amazon Advertising $35,753 6.3x 8.8x 12.3x $224,697 $315,965 $440,556
Cloud
AWS $63,052
Total Amazon Cloud $63,052 4.9x 6.5x 9.7x $307,406 $412,328 $611,332
Subscription
Subscription Services $35,579
Total Amazon Subscription Services $35,579 4.1x 9.0x 19.2x $145,028 $321,056 $682,557
Total Amazon Implied Enterprise Value $501,747 2.7x 4.6x 7.8x $1,331,709 $2,324,449 $3,931,324
Less: Net Debt ($59,107) ($59,107) ($59,107)
Total Amazon Implied Equity Value $1,272,602 $2,265,342 $3,872,217
Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding (MM) 518.2 518.2 518.2
Total Amazon Implied Equity Value per Share ($/sh.) $2,456 $4,372 $7,472
Weighted-Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
All Amounts Denominated in US$MM Unless Otherwise Stated
[Link], Inc. $3,075 518 $1,593,444 $101,229 $42,122 $59,107 $1,652,551 $472,903 $557,294 $72,596 $90,110 $24,841 $35,107 $71,886 $89,038 3.5x 3.0x
1P Comps
Walmart Inc. $132 2,850 $375,499 $63,702 $17,741 $45,961 $421,460 $552,181 $549,417 $35,135 $34,222 $18,622 $15,512 $30,037 $26,305 0.8x 0.8x
The Home Depot, Inc. $289 1,077 $311,425 $43,422 $7,895 $35,527 $346,952 $130,346 $135,502 $20,628 $21,810 $12,803 $13,494 $16,602 $16,512 2.7x 2.6x
Lowe's Companies, Inc. $179 735 $131,996 $26,211 $4,690 $21,521 $153,517 $88,607 $86,709 $11,134 $11,559 $6,025 $6,737 $9,679 $8,934 1.7x 1.8x
Target Corporation $188 511 $95,746 $15,109 $8,511 $6,598 $102,344 $92,600 $89,626 $8,873 $8,463 $4,417 $4,389 $7,645 $6,808 1.1x 1.1x
Average: 1P Comps 1.6x 1.6x
Median: 1P Comps 1.4x 1.5x
Low: 1P Comps 0.8x 0.8x
High: 1P Comps 2.7x 2.6x
3P Comps
Alibaba Group Holding Limited $240 2,780 $666,541 $22,676 $47,811 ($25,134) $641,406 $109,347 $142,802 $31,910 $39,825 $26,265 $26,231 $40,282 $44,890 5.9x 4.5x
eBay Inc. $60 714 $42,647 $8,317 $1,428 $6,889 $49,536 $11,917 $12,740 $4,204 $4,596 $2,285 $2,605 $3,662 $3,978 4.2x 3.9x
Etsy, Inc. $215 145 $31,156 ($206) $1,244 ($1,450) $29,705 $2,166 $2,579 $650 $786 $443 $548 $621 $731 13.7x 11.5x
Average: 3P Comps 7.9x 6.6x
Median: 3P Comps 5.9x 4.5x
Low: 3P Comps 4.2x 3.9x
High: 3P Comps 13.7x 11.5x
Advertising Comps
Alphabet Inc. $2,027 698 $1,415,764 $27,872 $26,465 $1,407 $1,417,171 $225,493 $263,227 $83,040 $97,895 $47,115 $54,859 $78,172 $90,194 6.3x 5.4x
Facebook, Inc. $290 2,955 $857,350 $11,177 $17,576 ($6,399) $850,951 $107,641 $128,587 $54,306 $65,212 $32,704 $39,219 $51,471 $59,560 7.9x 6.6x
Twitter, Inc. $66 885 $58,621 $2,644 $17,576 $656 $59,277 $4,810 $5,808 $1,462 $1,874 $194 $399 $1,281 $1,788 12.3x 10.2x
Average: Advertising Comps 8.8x 7.4x
Median: Advertising Comps 7.9x 6.6x
Low: Advertising Comps 6.3x 5.4x
High: Advertising Comps 12.3x 10.2x
Cloud Comps
[Link], inc. $212 964 $204,522 $6,413 $6,195 $218 $204,740 $21,117 $25,702 $6,337 $7,651 $3,854 $135 $4,851 $5,466 9.7x 8.0x
Oracle Corporation $66 2,917 $193,280 $69,299 $6,195 $46,978 $240,258 $40,012 $41,014 $20,307 $20,591 $10,369 $10,795 $14,198 $14,954 6.0x 5.9x
SAP SE $123 1,197 $147,559 $18,915 $6,497 $12,418 $159,978 $32,813 $34,043 $11,490 $11,756 $4,984 $5,376 $6,957 $7,754 4.9x 4.7x
VMware, Inc. $146 440 $64,160 $5,878 $4,692 $1,186 $65,346 $11,706 $12,729 $4,617 $4,414 $1,700 $1,596 $3,755 $3,921 5.6x 5.1x
Average: Cloud Comps 6.5x 5.9x
Median: Cloud Comps 5.8x 5.5x
Low: Cloud Comps 4.9x 4.7x
High: Cloud Comps 9.7x 8.0x
Subscription Comps
Netflix, Inc. $512 456 $233,754 $18,511 $8,206 $10,305 $244,059 $30,009 $34,701 $6,669 $8,404 $4,514 $5,882 $501 $1,538 8.1x 7.0x
Spotify Technology S.A. $272 198 $53,986 $744 $1,408 ($664) $53,322 $11,341 $13,580 ($70) $149 ($343) ($182) $418 $820 4.7x 3.9x
Roku, Inc. $348 142 $49,188 $438 $1,093 ($654) $48,533 $2,530 $3,502 $175 $334 ($31) $79 $182 $371 19.2x 13.9x
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. $6 4,173 $25,373 $8,968 $71 $8,897 $34,270 $8,407 $8,808 $2,578 $2,754 $1,125 $1,251 $1,972 $2,047 4.1x 3.9x
Average: Subscription Comps 9.0x 7.2x
Median: Subscription Comps 6.4x 5.5x
Low: Subscription Comps 4.1x 3.9x
High: Subscription Comps 19.2x 13.9x
Notes:
Source: Company filings
1. Fully diluted (treasury stock method)
2. Market capitalization plus long term debt net of working capital as at the most recently disclosed quarter, adjusted for subsequent acquisitions and financings
3. Based on Consensus research estimates
Current Trading Multiples3 Leverage Multiples
EV/EBITDA P/E P/CF Debt /
FY+1 FY+2 FY+1 FY+2 FY+1 FY+2 Equity Book Cap.
[x] [x] [x] [x] [x] [x] [x] [%]
Announced Transaction Transaction Current Implied Implied Transaction Multiples (LTM) Target LTM Financials
# Date Acquirer Target Type Value Net Debt Equity Value EV/Revenue EV/EBITDA P/E P/CF Revenue EBITDA Earnings Cash Flow Comments
[$MM] [$MM] [$MM] [x] [x] [x] [x] [$MM] [$MM] [$MM] [$MM]
1 13-Nov-19 Apollo Global Management, Inc. (NYSE:APO) Tech Data Corporation Merger/Acquisition $5,951 $680 $5,271 0.2x 7.3x 15.4x 13.9x $37,082 $819 $342 $380 Acquisition of Equity Stake (100%)
2 18-Dec-17 The Hershey Company (NYSE:HSY) Amplify Snack Brands, Inc. Merger/Acquisition $1,527 $582 $945 4.1x 18.5x 86.7x 52.5x $372 $82 $11 $18 Acquisition of Equity Stake (100%)
3 10-Dec-18 Tivity Health, Inc. (NasdaqGS:TVTY) Nutrisystem, Inc. Merger/Acquisition $1,341 -$93 $1,433 1.9x 15.2x 25.9x 17.9x $693 $88 $55 $80 Acquisition of Equity Stake (100%)
4 26-Jul-19 HGGC, LLC Monotype Imaging Holdings Inc. Merger/Acquisition $858 $33 $825 3.5x 14.4x 33.6x 22.5x $244 $59 $25 $37 Acquisition of Equity Stake (100%)
5 7-Jun-19 Elliott Management Corporation Barnes & Noble, Inc. Merger/Acquisition $685 $194 $490 0.2x 6.1x 133.6x 4.6x $3,553 $113 $4 $106 Acquisition of Equity Stake (100%)
6 26-Mar-18 JD Sports Fashion plc (LSE:JD.) The Finish Line, Inc. Merger/Acquisition $464 -$93 $558 0.3x 5.8x 38.6x 7.2x $1,839 $80 $14 $78 Acquisition of Equity Stake (100%)
7 22-Jul-19 The Catalyst Capital Group Inc. Hudson's Bay Company Merger/Acquisition $8,455 $6,594 $1,861 0.9x 20.2x -3.3x -3.9x $9,377 $419 -$571 -$475 Acquisition of Equity Stake (100%)
8 17-Jul-18 Alliance Santé Participations S.A. Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (NasdaqGS:WBA) Merger/Acquisition $77,396 $13,227 $64,169 0.6x 9.1x 14.9x 7.8x $128,244 $8,466 $4,314 $8,263 Acquisition of Equity Stake (0.17%)
9 26-Feb-18 Digital Entertainment Holdings LLC RLJ Entertainment, Inc. Merger/Acquisition $228 $51 $176 2.4x 16.7x -21.0x -32.0x $94 $14 -$8 -$6 Acquisition of Equity Stake (26%)
10 9-Jun-20 JANA Partners LLC Callaway Golf Company (NYSE:ELY) Merger/Acquisition $2,326 $857 $1,470 1.4x 12.8x 24.6x 12.6x $1,627 $182 $60 $117 Acquisition of Equity Stake (6.34%)
Average 1.6x 12.6x 34.9x 10.3x
Median 1.2x 13.6x 25.2x 10.2x
Low 0.2x 5.8x -21.0x -32.0x
High 4.1x 20.2x 133.6x 52.5x
Market Size
All Amounts Denominated in US$MM Unless Otherwise Stated
2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
US Market Size
Ecommerce 325 373 426 472 519 592 620 671 723 776 831 888 949 1,014 1,083 1,157
Advertising 293 302 312 332 349 278 313 336 350 360 368 376 391 405 421 437
Cloud 143 147 162 176 181 167 167 179 195 205 217 228 239 251 263 276
Physical Stores 637 640 652 652 653 656 658 660 665 670 675 680 685 690 695 700
Source:
IBISWorld Industy Research
US Market Size
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200
$0
2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
Macroeconomic Analysis
All Amounts Denominated in US$MM Unless Otherwise Stated
Sources:
[Link]
[Link]
[Link]
Equity Analyst Coverage
All Amounts Denominated in US$ Unless Otherwise Stated
Mean
Median
Mode
Low
High
© Corporate Finance Institute. All rights reserved.
Share Price Chart
All Amounts Denominated in US$ Unless Otherwise Stated
Operating Expenses:
Cost of Sales $88,265 $111,934 $139,156 $165,536 $233,307
Fulfillment $17,619 $25,249 $34,027 $40,232 $58,517
Marketing $7,233 $22,620 $28,837 $35,931 $42,740
Technology and Content $16,085 $10,069 $13,814 $18,878 $22,008
General and Administrative $2,432 $3,674 $4,336 $5,203 $6,668
Other Operating Expense, net $167 $214 $296 $201 ($75)
Total Operating Expenses $131,801 $173,760 $220,466 $265,981 $363,165
Operating Income $4,186 $4,106 $12,421 $14,541 $22,899
Interest Income $100 $202 $440 $832 $555
Interest Expense ($484) ($848) ($1,417) ($1,600) ($1,647)
Other Income (Expense), net $90 $346 ($183) $203 $2,371
Total Non-Operating Income (Expense) ($294) ($300) ($1,160) ($565) $1,279
Income Before Income Taxes $3,892 $3,806 $11,261 $13,976 $24,178
Provision for Income Taxes ($1,425) ($769) ($1,197) ($2,374) ($2,863)
Equity-Method Investment Activity, net of tax ($96) ($4) $9 ($14) $16
Net Income $2,371 $3,033 $10,073 $11,588 $21,331
Basic Earnings per Share 5.01 6.32 20.68 23.46 42.64
Diluted Earnings per Share 4.9 6.15 20.14 23.01 41.83
Weighted-Average Shares used in Computation of Earnings per Share:
Basic 474 480 487 494 500
Diluted 484 493 500 504 510
Purchases of Property and Equipment, Including Internal-Use Software and ($7,804) ($11,955) ($13,427) ($16,861) ($40,140)
Proceeds from Property and Equipment Incentives $1,067 $1,897 $2,104 $4,172 $5,096
Acquisitions, net of cash acquired, and other ($116) ($13,972) ($2,186) ($2,461) ($2,325)
Sales and Maturities of Marketable Securities $4,733 $9,677 $8,240 $22,681 $50,237
Purchases of Marketable Securities ($7,756) ($12,731) ($7,100) ($31,812) ($72,479)
Net Cash Provided by (used in) Investing Activities ($9,876) ($27,084) ($12,369) ($24,281) ($59,611)
Proceeds from Long-Term Debt and Other $621 $16,228 $768 $2,273 $17,321
Repayments of Long-Term Debt and Other ($354) ($1,301) ($668) ($2,684) ($7,730)
Principal repayments of Capital Lease Obligations ($3,860) - - - -
Principal repayments of Finance Leases ($147) ($4,799) ($7,449) ($9,628) ($10,642)
Principal repayments of Financing Obligations - ($200) ($337) ($27) ($53)
Net Cash Provided by (used in) Financing Activities ($3,740) $9,928 ($7,686) ($10,066) ($1,104)
Foreign currency effect on cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash ($212) $713 ($351) $70 $618
Net Increase (Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents $3,444 $1,922 $10,317 $4,237 $5,967
Cash, Cash Equivalents, and Restricted Cash, End of Period $19,334 $21,856 $32,173 $36,410 $42,377
Cash paid for interest on long-term debt $290 $328 $854 $875 $916
Cash paid for operating leases - - - $3,361 $4,475
Cash paid for interest on capital and finance lease obligations $206 $200 $381 $647 $612
Cash paid for interest on financing obligations - $119 $194 $39 $102
Cash paid for income taxes, net of refunds $412 $957 $1,184 $881 $1,713
Assets acquired under operating leases - - - $7,870 $16,217
Property and equipment acquired under capital and finance leases $5,704 $9,637 $10,615 $13,723 $11,588
Property and equipment acquired under build-to-suit arrangements $1,209 $3,541 $3,641 $1,362 $2,267
Lease Liability
Annual Report Closing Balance $11,660 $19,304 $24,423 $26,979 $28,434
Annual Report Opening Balance $9,074 $11,660 $19,304 $24,423 $26,979
Current Portion Closing Balance $4,111 $6,121 $8,131 $9,884 $10,374