GLOBAL
CONSILIENT
RESEARCH
Using
HOW TO IDENTIFY A GLOBAL
CONSILIENT
RESEARCH
MULTIBAGGER?
Identifying multi-baggers is more like an art &
not much science, because it requires a lot of
subjectivity and judgement!
So, understand that your judgement of sound
fundamentals & market’s mood and momentum
will play a key role in finding multibaggers
-Global Consilient Research’s Market Intelligence Lab!
LET’S UNDERSTAND GLOBAL
CONSILIENT
RESEARCH
VALUATION FIRST
To earn multi-bagger returns in the market, you
obviously need to understand valuation first
Now I will not be explaining each and every ratio
or DCF methods in this video!
But here’s the catch, when you expect a stock to
give you manifold returns, you will need to buy it
when it is highly undervalued!
NOW LET’S UNDERSTAND GLOBAL
CONSILIENT
RESEARCH
THE MAIN METRIC
A lot of investors buy low P/E cheap looking
stocks, but what they miss is the “Growth” factor
in the earnings as well as “P/E”
Buying cheap looking stocks isn’t value investing
if we ignore growth altogether from a business
So, make sure you look for signs of growth in a
business before buying it cheap!
MULTIBAGGER GLOBAL
CONSILIENT
RESEARCH
FORMULA
How do we calculate the P/E ratio?
P/E is simply a function of Price/Earnings per
share
So, doing 8th class algebra, we get this equation
for stock price:
PRICE = EPS X P/E
SIGNS OF A GLOBAL
CONSILIENT
RESEARCH
MULTIBAGGER
It simply means that the stock price is the function of both EPS & P/E ratio. EPS is
calculated as a company’s profits divided by the no of shares
Therefore understand this: Mere growth in earnings is not sufficient enough to
create a multibagger stock
There can be “n” no of stocks with high earnings growth that do not translate into
multi-baggers!
EXAMPLES OF GLOBAL
CONSILIENT
RESEARCH
HIGH EARNINGS GROWTH BUT...
As I already told you that high earnings are only a
Growth in
part of the equation and not the whole equation! Earnings
Here are the examples:
ITC from 2017 to 2019 & 2020-2021
Dilip Buildcon from 2018-2019
Price to
Earnings
Whether the stock is a large cap, midcap, smallcap
or microcap! The story remains the same:
P/E x EPS
THE COMPLETE GLOBAL
CONSILIENT
RESEARCH
EQUATION
Study any multibagger, the equation will be the same: High
earnings growth & P/E expansion!
Without expansion in the P/E multiple, the stock would never be a
multibagger
Both earnings expansion & P/E expansion are a must to grab the
multibaggers!
LIFECYCLE OF A GLOBAL
CONSILIENT
RESEARCH
MULTIBAGGER
We have studied economic cycles, corporate life cycles & now
let’s study the Multi-bagger Lifecycle!
Almost all multibagger stocks that I have studied/earned,
follows a similar lifecycle pattern!
Beginning Phase
Advancement Phase
Maturity/decline Phase
BEGINNING GLOBAL
CONSILIENT
RESEARCH
PHASE OF A MULTI-BAGGER
Here’s what to look for:
In the initial/beginning phase, the stock should have a low
market cap! How low? It should be below ₹500 crores
This phase may be quite boring and may require a lot of in-
depth research from the analyst/investor
But finding a high earnings growth stock in this phase can be
really beneficial!
The risk reward ratio will remain high in this phase! GLOBAL
CONSILIENT
RESEARCH
Your investment might or might not pay off in this stage as most
investors are really impatient & do not understand that temperament
still plays a role in investment returns
It is vital to understand the phase a stock is in, so identify clearly in
which phase the stock is currently trading in!
Some signs of a beginning phase:
S OF AN
Low liquidity
SIGN ITIAL
No analyst coverage IN GER
No holdings by FII & DII
ULT IB AG
Lower valuations M
ADVANCMENT PHASE GLOBAL
CONSILIENT
RESEARCH
After the initial/beginning phase, the stock usually enters the advancement phase, the
market cap (Price) soared and valuations expand in this phase a lot
For most investors, this is the phase where they build their positions and it is not too
late to build further positions
Here are the points that reflect the phase:
Liquidity is higher
The market cap has almost doubled from the last phase
Big names start appearing in the holders list
P/E expansion is still possible here
Media coverage begins and it starts appearing in social media handles too
Any potential multi-bagger stock in this phase sees the maximum P/E GLOBAL
CONSILIENT
RESEARCH
expansion and in many cases the valuation goes into the stratosphere
The right judgement during this phase is critical & only taking a leap of
faith can help you in gaining wisdom during such phase
This phase can even turn out to be fatal as many investors lose money
investing in high P/E stocks!
So, understand that it’s more about judgement in picking mutibagger
stocks
MATURE PHASE GLOBAL
CONSILIENT
RESEARCH
This is the nirvana of any microcap investor
His/her microcap holding moving from micro to mid
This is the phase where it is almost impossible to get the multi-bagger
juice out of the company’s stock
Here are the qualities:
High liquidity
Credit rating agencies coverage
Analyst coverage
Stock is in the media
Stabel growth in top line & bottom line
It is usually very hard to find bargains in this stocks which are in GLOBAL
CONSILIENT
RESEARCH
maturity phase as the scope of P/E expansion is limited or next to
none!
So, focus on the beginning & advancement phase stocks!
GLOBAL
CONSILIENT
RESEARCH
As equity investors we need to understand what triggers the stock
price so much that it doubles & triples in value!
So, in this section we will look for the triggers that you need to be
aware of to find the potential multi-bagger opportunities!
So, let’s see a few triggers
Trigger #1 GLOBAL
CONSILIENT
MARGIN EXPANSION
RESEARCH
Margin expansion is probably the most important trigger that you
need to be aware of when looking for multibagger stocks
Both the EBITDA & PAT margins are super important when analysing
a potential multibagger
Because both earnings growth & P/E expansion depend on the
margin expansion of any stock!
Trigger #2 GLOBAL
CONSILIENT
DEBT REDUCTION
RESEARCH
If the company had taken a lot of debt in the past and it repays it,
then the chances of stock price shooting up are really high! But why?
It’s because the co doesn’t need to pay the interest on loan and can
now improve both its margins & earnings which results in improved
expectations by the market & hence the P/E expands along with
earnings!
Trigger #3 GLOBAL
CONSILIENT
CAPACITY EXPANSION
RESEARCH
How do we know that the capacity expansion is a multi-bagger
trigger?
It’s simply because whenever a company expands its size of
operations, the probable increase in revenues & earings both gets
discounted by the market really quickly
And that’s the reason we see the market react positively when a
capacity expansion new is announced by any Co.
Trigger #4 GLOBAL
CONSILIENT
HUGE TAM
RESEARCH
For any microcap investment to payoff, the company must have a
strong total addressable market in front of it & it must capitalize on
the opportunity
Because once a huge opportunity is capitalised then the probability of
making manifold returns are higher by any investor
So, look for those companies that have a huge market base in front
of them and are at a low base level
Trigger #5 GLOBAL
CONSILIENT
LOW BASE EFFECT
RESEARCH
I have already touched upon this one & it is vitally important to look
for co’s which have a small base right now and can grow with leaps
& bounds
So, understand that as an investor looking for multibagger returns,
the place to look for is in the microcap space & not in the large cap
space
STUDY MATERIAL GLOBAL
CONSILIENT
RESEARCH
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