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Religion Data of Census 2011: IV
The case of Bihar continued
In the previous post, we gave details of how in Bihar, the Hindu growth rate has
surpassed that of Muslims in several districts and the overall gap between the growth
rates of the two communities has narrowed. In this post, we explain why this
narrowing of the gap should not be read as the beginning of the ‘demographic
transition’ that the demographers generally talk about. What is happening in Bihar is
a sociological, and perhaps political, response of the society to the persistent
imbalance in the growth of different communities and not any routine demographic
phenomenon. It is important to see it in this light to draw the right conclusions and
lessons from it. In the later part of this post, we give further details of the religious
profile of Bihar. We shall continue the story of the emerging restoration of balance in
the next post, where we discuss the case of Jharkhand.
What is happening in Bihar is not ‘demographic transition’
We have noticed that in Bihar the gap between the growth of Muslims and Hindus has
narrowed considerably during 2001-11. However, this narrowing of the gap in Bihar,
as also in some other parts of the country, is not a consequence of the ‘demographic
transition’ that the demographers are fond of talking about. The phenomenon seems a
sociological, or political, response to the imbalance in growth and skewing of the
shares of different communities that has been happening for several decades. It cannot
possibly represent the ‘usual’ slowing down of the demographic expansion of all
communities at a certain stage of ‘development’ because:
One, Bihar has hardly reached the stage of demographic stabilisation yet. During
2001-11, population of the State has grown by 25.4 percent, which is far above the
national average of 17.7 percent and is the highest among the major States of India.
Assam and West Bengal seem to be much farther on the path of demographic
stabilisation; but in those two States, the gap between the growth of Hindus and
Muslims has only widened during 2000-11, as we shall see in due course. Kerala is
perhaps the farthest on the demographic transition curve; growth rate of the total
population there has declined from 9.42 percent in 1991-2001 to 4.91 percent in 2001-
11. Yet the gap between the growth rate of Muslims and Hindus has widened from
115 percent in 1991-2001 to 475 percent in 2001-11. Bihar also continues to be the
least literate and the least urbanised State of India and therefore an unlikely candidate
for demographic transition.
Two, the narrowing of the gap is not a uniform phenomenon spread across the districts
of the State; it is not as if the growth rates of the Muslims and the Hindus have come
nearer each other everywhere. What has happened in fact is that in some districts the
Hindu growth rate has surpassed that of the Muslims; this has brought down the
overall gap between the Muslim and Hindu growth rates. But in many of the districts,
the gap between the Muslim and Hindu growth rates can be very wide in either
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direction. Thus in Sheikhpura, Jehanabad and Nalanda, the gap between the Hindu
and Muslim growth rates is as high as 101, 49 and 45 percent, respectively, in favour
of Hindus, while in Katihar, Araria and Purnia the gap is 45, 38 and 34 percent,
respectively, in favour of Muslims (See, Map A of the previous post).
From the above, it seems certain that the phenomenon of the narrowing of the gap in
growth between the Muslims and Hindus in Bihar is not a consequence of the normal
progression of population through different stages of growth and decline that the
demographers talk about. It seems to be the result of a contention between the two
communities for demographic space. As a result, where Hindus dominate the
population, they have established a growth ascendance over the Muslims, and where
Muslims have a substantial share in the population they have registered substantially
higher growth than the Hindus. There is, of course, nothing new in the Muslim growth
surpassing that of others, especially in regions where they already have a strong
presence, but the Hindu growth beginning to surpass that of Muslims in districts
where they dominate is a new phenomenon.
It is perhaps not entirely appropriate to look upon the growth rates of different
communities in terms of a contention between them for demographic space. But, an
objective reading of the available data leaves one with the distinct impression of such
a contention happening from district to district, and sub-district to sub-district in Bihar
and in several other States. The impression becomes even stronger when we look at
the religious demographic data of Jharkhand, which we would be presenting in the
next post. The situation in Jharkhand seems even more contentious, because unlike in
Bihar, where mainly the Hindus and Muslims are in competition in most districts, in
Jharkhand, Hindus, Muslims, Christians and ORPs all seem to be vying for
demographic space.
Muslims and Christians have been expanding their presence in different parts of the
country for several decades; such expansion can be seen in the religious tables of all
the decennial Censuses since 1881. But, all those earlier Censuses do not convey the
impression of different communities competing for space, because there was no
competition. It was a one-sided game, with the share of Hindus declining everywhere
and the Muslims and Christians occupying the additional space. The Census of 2011,
however, reveals a new trend of Hindus approaching and even surpassing the growth
of Muslims (and Christians) in certain districts and sub-districts. This is why the
census numbers have begun to look like a fascinating drama of a historic contention
between different communities for demographic ascendance.
It would be interesting to speculate on the causes of the religious demographic change
in India taking this new turn. We shall do so after looking at the profile of several
other States and delineating the contours of the phenomenon in detail. But before we
proceed to Jharkhand, the next State in our list, let us look into some of the remaining
significant features of the religious demography of Bihar.
Christians and Others in Bihar
In the Table here, we give the numbers for the current and the previous Censuses for
all the eight religious groups for which the Census of India counts the numbers.
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Hindus and Muslims Hindus, Sikhs, Jains, Buddhists, ORPs and RNS, 2001-2011
constitute almost the Population in Decadal
entire population of thousands Share in Percent Growth %
Bihar. Of the total of 2011 2001 2011 2001 2001-2011
10.41 crore people Total 1,04,099 82,999 100.00 100.00 25.42
counted in 2011, 10.36 Hindus 86,079 69,077 82.69 83.23 24.61
crore are either Hindus Muslims 17,558 13,722 16.87 16.53 27.95
or Muslims. We have Christians 129 53 0.12 0.06 143.23
discussed the relative Sikhs 24 21 0.02 0.03 14.43
share and growth of Buddhists 25 19 0.02 0.02 35.26
Hindus and Muslims in
Jains 19 16 0.02 0.02 17.59
the previous post; that
covers the most ORPs 13 53 0.01 0.06 -74.60
significant aspects of the RNS 252 38 0.24 0.05 566.70
religious demography of the State.
Christians
Of the remaining about 4.6 lakh people of the State, who are counted in the other 6
religious categories, 1.29 lakh are Christians. Their number in 2001 was 53 thousand
and only 31 thousand in 1991. During 2001-2011, the share of Christians in the
population of Bihar, though still low, has doubled from 0.06 percent to 0.12 percent.
The increase has been much more pronounced in the rural areas, where their numbers
have increased from 30 thousand in 2001 to 97.6 thousand in 2011; in the urban areas
there has been only a modest rise from 23 to 32 thousand.
The small number of Christians in the State is distributed across all districts, but their
share in the population is the highest in Jamui (0.48 percent) and the neighbouring
Banka (0.30 percent). Besides these two, their presence is relatively high in Purnia
(0.24%), Katihar (0.28%) and Kishanganj (0.34%); in Pashchim Champaran (0.22%)
and in Patna (0.21%). Except for these six, there is no other district, where Christian
share is above 0.20 percent. But during 2001-2011, they have shown substantial
growth in every district of the State, except Sheikhpura, where their numbers have
declined from 375 in 2001 to 313 in 2011. We have come across Sheikhpura earlier as
the district where the Hindu growth has been substantially higher than Muslims. In
fact, both Muslims and Christians, and also Buddhists, have recorded negative growth
in this district.
Sikhs
There are only 24 thousand Sikhs in the State; their number has increased slightly
from 21 thousand in 2001. The number of Sikhs in the urban areas of the State has
actually declined from 12,743 in 2001 to 11,761 in 2011; their number in the rural
areas, however, has increased from 8,037 to 12,018. This decline of Sikhs in the urban
areas of Bihar is surprising; but the numbers of Sikhs have undergone more
substantial changes in several other States of the country.
Jains
Like the Sikhs, the Jains also have witnessed a decline in their numbers in the urban
areas of Bihar from 12,903 to 11,339; their number in the rural areas has, however,
increased from 3,182 to 7,575. The total number of Jains has increased marginally
from 16,085 to 18,914.
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Buddhists
Buddhists in Bihar have increased from 18,818 in 2001 to 25,453 in 2011, recording
somewhat higher growth than the total population. Their numbers in the urban areas
have declined from 2,873 to 1,898; but in the rural areas, they have grown
substantially from 15,945 to 23,555.
The Buddhists in Bihar is concentrated particularly in Buxar and Kaimur (Bhabua);
somewhat more than half of the Buddhists in the State are counted in these two
districts.
Other Religions and Persuasions (ORPs)
The number of persons counted under the Census category of ORPs in Bihar has
declined from 52,905 in 2001 to 13,437 in 2011. In 1991, however, there were only
about 4.3 thousand ORPs counted in the State. Thus the sudden spurt of 1991-2001 in
the ORPs has now been reversed to a large extent.
The share of ORPs is significant only in Jamui; the total of 3,438 ORPs counted in the
district form 0.2 percent of the population. In all other districts, their share is far less
than 0.1 percent.
Detailed data for the religions included under ORPs has not been released yet for
2011; but, in Census 2001, the ORPs of Bihar were mainly Sarnas.
Religion Not Stated (RNS)
The number of persons counted under this category in Bihar has sharply risen from
37,817 in 2001 to 2,52,127 in 2011. Of these, 2,11,872 are in the rural areas and
40,255 in the towns and cities of the State. The share of RNS in the population is the
highest in Sheohar at 0.53 percent and Gaya at 0.44 percent. But in most of the
districts RNS now form more than 0.20 percent of the population.
Since the increase in the RNS is spread across both the rural and urban areas and
across almost all districts, it is difficult to imagine it as a spurt in atheistic sentiments
among some sections of the population. What could then this sudden increase in the
RNS numbers in Bihar, as well as in the country as a whole, represent?
We have given these details about the religious profile of the population of Bihar to
indicate the vastness of the sociological information that the religion tables of the
Census hold within them. Indian society is in ferment; equations between different
communities and the sentiments and commitments of people are changing in different
ways. The religion data of the Census offers one way of looking at and understanding
the changes that the Indian society is going through.
Dr. J. K. Bajaj
Centre for Policy Studies
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November 3, 2015
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