13

Discrete
random
variables

VCE coverage
Area of study
Units 3 & 4 • Statistics and
probability

In this chapter
13A Probability revision
13B Discrete random
variables
13C Expected value of discrete
random distributions
13D Variance and standard
deviation of discrete
random distributions
632 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

Probability revision
To introduce this chapter we shall revise important concepts and skills that were
covered in chapters 11 and 12.

Terminology
The circular spinner at right is divided into 8 equal sectors. 1 2
When the spinner is spun, the possible outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4,
8 3
5, 6, 7, 8. These outcomes may be listed as the elements of a
set. The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment is called
the sample space (or the universal set) and is denoted by ε, and 7 4
each possible outcome is called a sample point. Therefore,
6 5
spinning the spinner gives ε = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8}.
A subset of the sample space is known as an event. For the example above, if event
A is defined as ‘an odd number when the spinner is spun’, then A = {1, 3, 5, 7}. If event
B is defined as ‘a number less than 5 when the spinner is spun’, then B = {1, 2, 3, 4}.
The union (symbol ∪) of the two events A and B above implies a combined event,
that is, either event A or event B or both occurring. Therefore the set A ∪ B = {1, 2, 3,
4, 5, 7}. (Note: Common elements are written only once.)
The intersection (symbol ∩) of the two events A and B above is represented by the
common sample points of the two events. Therefore the set A ∩ B = {1, 3}.

Venn diagrams
Venn diagrams involve drawing a rectangle that represents the sample space and a series
of circles that represent subsets of the sample space. They provide a visual representation
of the information at hand and clearly display the relationships between sets.
The Venn diagrams below illustrate an alternative way of presenting information
regarding the circular spinner above.

ε ε ε
A B A B A B
5 1 2 5 1 2 5 1 2
7 3 4 7 3 7 3
6 4 6 4 6
8 8 8

A∪B A∩B A

Note: Sample points not belonging to either set are placed outside the circles but
remain inside the rectangle.
Venn diagrams can also assist in determining whether or not two sets are equal, that
is, whether they contain the same elements. As the examples below show, the equality
of two sets may not be obvious from the set notation but is often easier to see in a
diagram.

A B A B

A′ ∩ B′ = (A ∪ B)′ A′ ∪ B′ = (A ∩ B)′
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 633
Probability
Probability deals with the likelihood or chance of some event occurring. The prob-
ability of a specific event, say A, occurring is defined by the rule:

Number of favourable ˙ outcomes

Pr ( A ) = ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- .
Total number of possible outcomes
Its probability lies within the restricted interval 0 ≤ Pr(A) ≤ 1. A probability of zero
implies that the event cannot occur, while a probability of 1 implies that the event will
most certainly occur.
The individual probabilities of a particular experiment will sum to a value of 1 and
can be denoted as follows.

∑ p( x) = 1
If A is defined as the probability of an event occurring, then its complement, A′, is
defined as the probability of an event not occurring.
Therefore, it can be stated that Pr(A) + Pr(A′) = 1
which can be transposed to Pr(A′) = 1 − Pr(A).

WORKED Example 1
Two fair dice are rolled simultaneously and the sum of the two numbers appearing
uppermost is recorded as shown below.
(1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)
(2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)
(3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)
(4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)
(5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)
(6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)

Find the probability that the sum will be:

a 6 b 10 c a number less than 5
d at least 9 e an odd number.

THINK WRITE

a 1 List all the possible outcomes. a (5, 1) (4, 2) (3, 3) (2, 4) (1, 5)
2 Define the event. Let A = the sum of 6.
Number of favourable outcomes
3 Substitute the values into the Pr ( A ) = ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total number of possible outcomes
probability rule.
5
= ------
36
Continued over page
634 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

THINK WRITE
b 1 List all the possible outcomes. b (6, 4) (5, 5) (4, 6)
2 Define the event. Let A = the sum of 10.
Number of favourable outcomes
3 Substitute the values into the Pr ( A ) = ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total number of possible outcomes
probability rule.
3
= ------
36
1
4 Simplify. = ------
12

c 1 List all the possible outcomes. c (1, 1) (2, 1) (3, 1) (1, 2) (2, 2) (1, 3)
2 Define the event. Let A = a number less than 5.
Number of favourable outcomes
3 Substitute the values into the Pr ( A ) = ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total number of possible outcomes
probability rule.
6
= ------
36
1
4 Simplify. = ---
6

d 1 List all the possible outcomes. d (6, 3) (5, 4) (6, 4) (4, 5) (5, 5)
(6, 5) (3, 6) (4, 6) (5, 6) (6, 6)
2 Define the event. Let A = at least 9.
Number of favourable outcomes
3 Substitute the values into the Pr ( A ) = ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total number of possible outcomes
probability rule.
10
= ------
36
5
4 Simplify. = ------
18

e 1 List all the possible outcomes. e (2, 1) (4, 1) (6, 1) (1, 2) (3, 2) (5, 2)
(2, 3) (4, 3) (6, 3) (1, 4) (3, 4) (5, 4)
(2, 5) (4, 5) (6, 5) (1, 6) (3, 6) (5, 6)
2 Define the event. Let A = an odd number.
Number of favourable outcomes
3 Substitute the values into the Pr ( A ) = ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total number of possible outcomes
probability rule.
18
= ------
36
4 Simplify. 1
= ---
2
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 635
WORKED Example 2
A bag contains 15 marbles comprising 5 black, 3 red, 4 blue, 2 white and 1 green. One
marble is drawn randomly from the bag.
a Determine the probability of each of the coloured marbles being drawn:
i black ii red iii blue iv white v green.
b Show that the probabilities sum to 1.
c What is the probability that the marble drawn is:
i not black? ii either black or white? iii neither blue nor green?

THINK WRITE
a i 1 Define the event. a i Let B = a black marble.
Number of favourable outcomes
2 Substitute the values into the Pr ( B ) = ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total number of possible outcomes
probability rule.
5
= ------
15
1
3 Simplify. = ---
3

ii 1 Define the event. ii Let R = a red marble.

Number of favourable outcomes
2 Substitute the values into the Pr ( R ) = ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total number of possible outcomes
probability rule.
3
= -----
-
15
1
3 Simplify. = ---
5

iii 1 Define the event. iii Let Bl = a blue marble.

Number of favourable outcomes
2 Substitute the values into the Pr ( Bl ) = ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total number of possible outcomes
probability rule.
4
= ------
15

iv 1 Define the event. iv Let W = a white marble.

Number of favourable outcomes
2 Substitute the values into the Pr ( W ) = ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total number of possible outcomes
probability rule.
2
= ------
15

v 1 Define the event. v Let G = a green marble.

Number of favourable outcomes
2 Substitute the values into the Pr ( G ) = ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total number of possible outcomes
probability rule.
1
= ------
15
Continued over page
636 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

THINK WRITE
b Add each of the probabilities. b Sum of probabilities = 1--- + 1
--- + 4
------ + 2
------ + 1
------
3 5 15 15 15
=1

c i 1 Write the appropriate rule: c i Pr(B′) = 1 − Pr(B)

Pr(A′) = 1 − Pr(A).
2 Substitute the known values =1− 1
---
3
into the rule.
3 Evaluate. = 2
---
3
ii 1 Add each of the probabilities ii Pr(B ∪ W) = Pr(B) + Pr(W)
together.
2 Substitute the known values = 1
--- + 2
------
3 15
into the rule.
3 Evaluate. = 7
------
15

iii 1 Write the appropriate rule. iii Pr(Bl′ ∪ G′) = 1 − (Pr(Bl) + Pr(G))
2 Substitute the known values = 1 –  -----
15
4
- + ------
1
15
into the rule.
3 Evaluate. =1− 5
------
15
= 10
------
15

4 Simplify. = 2
---
3

The addition rule of probability

The addition rule of probability states that Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) − Pr(A ∩ B).

WORKED Example 3
a If Pr(A) = 0.4, Pr(B) = 0.7 and Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.2, find Pr(A ∪ B).
b If Pr(A) = 0.6, Pr(B) = 0.8 and Pr(A ∪ B) = 0.9, find Pr(A ∩ B).
THINK WRITE
a 1 Write the addition rule. a Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) − Pr(A ∩ B)
2 Substitute the known values into the rule. = 0.4 + 0.7 − 0.2
3 Evaluate. = 1.1 − 0.2
= 0.9
b 1 Write the addition rule. b Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) − Pr(A ∩ B)
2 Substitute the known values into the rule. 0.9 = 0.6 + 0.8 − Pr(A ∩ B)
0.9 = 1.4 − Pr(A ∩ B)
3 Transpose the equation to make Pr(A ∩ B) = 1.4 − 0.9
Pr(A ∩ B) the subject.
4 Evaluate. = 0.5
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 637
Venn diagrams may also be used to display the probabilities rather than just the out-
comes, as shown in the diagram below.

ε
A B
Pr
Pr (A∩B′) (A∩B) Pr (A′∩B)

Note: Pr(A ∪ B) is represented by the shaded section.

The probabilities given and calculated in worked example 3(a) and 3(b) can be dis-
played as follows.

ε
A B
Worked example 3(a) 0.2 0.2 0.5

0.1

ε
A B
Worked example 3(b) 0.1 0.5 0.3

0.1

Mutually exclusive events

If two or more events cannot occur simultaneously, they are said to be mutually exclu-
sive or disjoint; that is, they have nothing in common. In set notation this may be
expressed as Pr(A ∩ B) = { } or Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.

Therefore for mutually exclusive events the addition rule becomes:

Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B)

Independent events
Two events A and B are independent if one event does not influence the other event
from occurring. The mathematical definition of independence is given by:

Pr(A ∩ B) = Pr(A) × Pr(B)

638 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

WORKED Example 4
Two fair dice are rolled with S representing the probability of obtaining a number less
than 4 on the first die and T the probability of obtaining a number greater than 4 on the
second die. Find:
a Pr(S)
b Pr(T)
c if events S and T are mutually exclusive
d if events S and T are independent.

THINK WRITE
a 1 Refer to the dice results recorded in a
the question in worked example 1.
2 Define the event. Let S = obtaining a number less than 4 on
the first die.

3 Determine the probability. Pr(S) = 18

------
36

4 Simplify. = 1
---
2

b 1 Define the event. b Let T = obtaining a number greater than 4 on

the first die.

2 Determine the probability. Pr(T) = 12

------
36

3 Simplify. = 1
---
3

c Answer the question with reasoning. c Events S and T are not mutually exclusive
since they have common points; that is,
(1, 5) (1, 6) (2, 5) (2, 6) (3, 5) (3, 6).

d 1 Answer the question using the dice d From the dice results recorded in the
results in worked example 1. question in worked example 1,
Pr(S ∩ T) = -----
6
-
36
= 1
---
6

2 Check with answer obtained using Using the rule Pr(S ∩ T) = Pr(S) × Pr(T)
the rule.
= 1
--- × 1
---
2 3

= 1
---
6
Since both methods give the same answer,
S and T are independent events.
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 639
WORKED Example 5
Two fair dice are rolled with U representing the probability of obtaining a 5 on the first die
and V the probability of the sum of numbers on the two dice exceeding 10. Find:
a Pr(U) b Pr(V)
c if events U and V are independent.

THINK WRITE
a 1 Refer to the dice results recorded in a
the question in worked example 1.
2 Define the event. Let U = obtaining a 5 on the first die.

3 Determine the probability. Pr(U) = 6

------
36

4 Simplify. = 1
---
6

b 1 Define the event. b Let V = the sum of the numbers on the two
dice exceeds 10.

2 Determine the probability. Pr(V) = 3

------
36

3 Simplify. = 1
------
12

c 1 Answer the question using the dice c From the dice results, Pr(U ∩ V) = 1
------
36
results.
2 Check with answer obtained using Using rule Pr(U ∩ V) = Pr(U) × Pr(V)
the rule. = 1
--- × 1
------
6 12

= 1
------
72
Since the two methods do not give the same
answer, U and V are not independent events.

Karnaugh maps and probability tables

Karnaugh maps and probability tables summarise all combinations of two events (for
example A and B) and their complements (for example A′ and B′).

B B′ B B′

A A∩B A ∩ B′ A Pr(A ∩ B) Pr(A ∩ B′) Pr(A)

A′ A′ ∩ B A′ ∩ B′ A′ Pr(A′ ∩ B) Pr(A′ ∩ B′) Pr(A′)

Pr(B) Pr(B′) 1

Karnaugh map Probability table

640 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

WORKED Example 6
For the probability table shown, A is the Column 1 Column 2 Column 3
event ‘not more than 17 years of age’ and
B is the event ‘has a learner permit’. B B′
a Complete the probability table at right. Row 1 A 0.12
b What do the following probabilities Row 2 A′ 0.5
represent?
Row 3 0.63 1
i Pr(A ∩ B) ii Pr(A′ ∩ B′)
c What is the probability that:
iii a person over the age of 17 does not have a learner permit?
iii a person has a learner permit and is older than 17?
iii a person over the age of 17 has a learner permit or a person at or under
iii the age of 17 does not have a learner permit?

THINK WRITE
a 1 Calculate the values of the cells in a Pr(A) = 1 − Pr(A′) Pr(B) = 1 − Pr(B′)
row 1, column 3 and row 3, = 1 − 0.5 = 1 − 0.63
column 1. = 0.5 = 0.37

2 Enter the values into the

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3
appropriate cells.
B B′
Row 1 A 0.12 0.5
Row 2 A′ 0.5
Row 3 0.37 0.63 1

3 Calculate the value of the cell in Pr(A ∩ B′) = Pr(A) − Pr(A ∩ B)

row 1, column 2. = 0.5 − 0.12
= 0.38

ii 4 Enter the value into the appropriate

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3
cell.
B B′
Row 1 A 0.12 0.38 0.5
Row 2 A′ 0.5
Row 3 0.37 0.63 1

5 Calculate the value of the cell in Pr(A′ ∩ B) = Pr(B) − Pr(A ∩ B)

row 2, column 1. = 0.37 − 0.12
= 0.25
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 641

THINK WRITE

6 Enter the value into the appropriate

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3
cell.
B B′
Row 1 A 0.12 0.38 0.5
Row 2 A′ 0.25 0.5
Row 3 0.37 0.63 1

iii 7 Calculate the value of the cell in iii Pr(A′ ∩ B′) = Pr(B′) − Pr(A ∩ B′)
row 2, column 2. = 0.63 − 0.38
= 0.25
8 Enter the value into the appropriate Column 1 Column 2 Column 3
cell.
B B′
Row 1 A 0.12 0.38 0.5
Row 2 A′ 0.25 0.25 0.5
Row 3 0.37 0.63 1

b ii Explain what Pr(A ∩ B) b iii Pr(A ∩ B) represents the probability of a

represents in this example. person at or under the age of 17 having a
learner permit. In this case the probability
of the given event occurring is 0.12.
ii Explain what Pr(A′ ∩ B′) iiii Pr(A′ ∩ B′) represents the probability of a
represents in this example. person over the age of 17 not having a
learner permit. In this case the probability
of the given event occurring is 0.25.

c i State the appropriate probability c iii Pr(A′ ∩ B′) = 0.25

from the table.
ii State the appropriate probability iii Pr(A′ ∩ B) = 0.25
from the table.
iii State the appropriate probabilities iii Pr(A′ ∩ B) + Pr(A ∩ B′) = 0.25 + 0.38
from the table and evaluate. = 0.63

Conditional probability
Conditional probability deals with an event which has previously occurred and has an
effect on an event we are interested in. Due to the initial condition (or restriction)
imposed, the number of possible events is reduced. Conditional probability is defined
Pr ( A ∩ B )
by the rule Pr ( A B ) = ------------------------- , where Pr(B) ≠ 0, and can be transposed to
Pr ( B )
Pr(A ∩ B) = Pr(A | B) × Pr(B). The latter is called the multiplication rule.
Pr(A | B) is read as ‘the probability of A given B’.
642 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

WORKED Example 7
If Pr(A) = 1--- , Pr(B) = 1
------ and Pr(A ∩ B) = 1
------ , find:
5 10 20
a Pr(A ∪ B)
b Pr(A | B)
c Pr(B | A)
d if events A and B are mutually exclusive
e if events A and B are independent.

THINK WRITE
a 1 Write the addition rule. a Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) − Pr(A ∩ B)
2 Substitute the known values into the = 1
--- + 1
------ − 1
------
5 10 20
rule.
3 Evaluate. = 5
------
20

4 Simplify. = 1
---
4

Pr ( A ∩ B )
b 1 Write the appropriate rule. b Pr(A | B) = -------------------------
Pr ( B )
1
------
2 Substitute the known values into the = 20
----
1
rule. ------
10

3 Evaluate. = 1
------ ÷ 1
------
20 10

= 1
------ × 10
------
20 1

= 10
------
20

4 Simplify. = 1
---
2

Pr ( B ∩ A )
c 1 Write the appropriate rule. c Pr(B | A) = -------------------------
Pr ( A )
1
------
2 Substitute the known values into the = ---
20
1
-
rule. ---
5
3 Evaluate. = 1
------ ÷ 1
---
20 5

= 1
------ × 5
---
20 1

= 5
------
20

4 Simplify. = 1
---
4

d State the answer, showing reasoning. d Events A and B are not mutually exclusive
since they have common events, that is,
Pr(A ∩ B) = 1
------ .
20
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 643

THINK WRITE

e Compare the given value with the answer e Pr(A ∩ B) = 1

------
20
obtained using the rule. Using rule Pr(A ∩ B) = Pr(A) × Pr(B)
= 1
--- × 1
------
5 10

= 1
------
50
Since the two methods do not give the
same answer, A and B are not independent
events.

From worked example 7(b) and 7(c) it can be seen that Pr(A | B) ≠ Pr(B | A).

Tree diagrams
Tree diagrams are a useful tool in solving probability tasks as they display each of the
possible outcomes along with their respective probabilities.

WORKED Example 8
Nadia knows that if her car starts, she has an 80%
chance of getting to work on time. However, if her car
doesn’t start, her chance of arriving on time is 50%.
If Nadia’s car starts only 70% of the time, what is the
probability that:
a her car starts and she gets to work on time?
b she arrives at work late?
c she arrives at work on time?
d her car starts, given that she arrives at work on
time?

THINK WRITE
a 1 Define the events. a Let C = car starts
Let C′ = car doesn’t start
Let O = Nadia arrives at work on time
Let L = Nadia arrives at work late

Continued over page

644 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

THINK WRITE

2 Assign probabilities to each event. Pr ( C ) = 70

---------
100
7
= ------
10

Pr ( C′ ) = 3
------
10

If car starts, Pr(O) = 80

---------
100

= 4
---
5

If car starts, Pr(L) = 1

---
5

If car doesn’t start, Pr(O) = 50

---------
100

= 1
---
2

If car doesn’t start, Pr(L) = 1

---
2
3 Draw a tree diagram with each branch 4–
assigned the appropriate probability. 5 O
7– C
10
1– L
5 1–
2 O
3–
10 C'
1– L
2

4 Calculate the required probability. Pr(CO) = 7

------ × 4
---
10 5

= 28
------
50

5 Simplify. = 14
------
25

b Calculate the required probability. b Pr(L) = Pr(CL) + Pr(C′L)

= 7
------ × 1
--- + 3
------ × 1
---
10 5 10 2

= 7
------ + 3
------
50 20

= 14
--------- + 15
---------
100 100

= 29
---------
100

c Calculate the required probability. c Pr(O) = Pr(CO) + Pr(C′O)

= 7
------ × 4
--- + 3
------ × 1
---
10 5 10 2

= 28
------ + 3
------
50 20

= 56
--------- + 15
---------
100 100

= 71
---------
100
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 645

THINK WRITE
Pr ( CO )
d 1 Write the appropriate rule. d Pr(C|O) = -------------------
Pr ( O )
Note: ‘Given’ implies conditional
probability. 14
------
2 Substitute the known values into the = 25
---------
71
rule. ---------
100
3 Evaluate and simplify. = 14 71
------ ÷ ---------
25 100

= 14 100
------ × ---------
25 71

= 56
------
71

WORKED Example 9
A fair coin is tossed three times. Find the probability of obtaining two heads given the first
toss resulted in a tail.
THINK WRITE
1 Draw a tree diagram and list all of the H
possible outcomes. H
T
H
H
T
T

H H
T
T
H
T
T
HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT
Pr ( 2H ∩ tail first toss )
2 Write the appropriate rule. Pr(2H | tail first toss) = -------------------------------------------------------
Pr ( tail first toss )
3 Calculate the probability of each event. Pr(2H ∩ tail first toss) = 1
---
8
4
Pr(tail first toss) = ---
8
1
= ---
2
1
---
4 Substitute the known values into the Pr(2H | tail first toss) = -8
1
rule. ---
2

5 Evaluate. = 1
--- ÷ 1
---
8 2
= 1
--- × 2
---
8 1
= 2
---
8

6 Simplify. = 1
---
4
646 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

Combinations
In mathematics, a combination deals with the number of ways items may be selected
from a set of elements where the order is not important. For example, in how many
ways can 3 numbers be selected from the set {1, 2, 3, 4}, taking into account that order
is not important?
The following selections can be made:
1, 2, 3 1, 2, 4 2, 3, 4 3, 4, 1
Hence 4 selections could be made.
If order was important, there would be a greater number of possibilities since each of
the above selections could be arranged in 6 ways. For example, the selection (1, 2, 3)
could be arranged as:
1, 2, 3 2, 1, 3 2, 3, 1 3, 1, 2 3, 2, 1 1, 3, 2.
A combination is also referred to as a selection or choice, and is defined by the rule nCr .
n
Cr = the number of selections of n different objects taken r at a time
n!
= -----------------------
( n – r )!r!
n
Cr may also be expressed as  n and is read as ‘n over (above) r’.
 r

WORKED Example 10
A drawer contains 7 T-shirts of which 3 are white and the rest are black. If 2 T-shirts are
randomly selected from the drawer simultaneously, find the probability that they are:
a both black b both white
c different colours d the same colour.

THINK WRITE
a 1 Calculate the number of selections a 4C2 = 6; that is, there are 6 ways of selecting
of taking 2 black T-shirts from a 2 black T-shirts from a total of 4.
total of 4.
2 Calculate the number of selections 7
C2 = 21; that is, there are 21 ways of
of taking 2 T-shirts from a total of 7. selecting 2 T-shirts from a total of 7.
2 black T-shirts from 4
3 Calculate the probability using the Pr(both black) = -------------------------------------------------------
2 T-shirts from 7
rule.
4 Substitute the known values into the 6
= ------
rule. 21
2
5 Simplify. = ---
7

b 1 Calculate the number of selections b 3C2 = 3; that is, there are 3 ways of selecting
of taking 2 white T-shirts from a 2 white T-shirts from a total of 3.
total of 3.
2 Calculate the number of selections 7
C2 = 21; that is, there are 21 ways of
of taking 2 T-shirts from a total of 7. selecting 2 T-shirts from a total of 7.
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 647

THINK WRITE
2 white T-shirts from 3
3 Calculate the probability using the Pr(both white) = -------------------------------------------------------
rule. 2 T-shirts from 7
4 Substitute the known values into the 3
= ------
rule. 21
1
5 Simplify. = ---
7

c 1 Calculate the number of selections c 4

C1 = 4; that is, there are 4 ways of selecting
of taking 1 black T-shirt from a total 1 black T-shirt from a total of 4.
of 4.
2 Calculate the number of selections of
3
C1 = 3; that is, there are 3 ways of selecting
taking 1 white T-shirt from a total of 3. 1 white T-shirt from a total of 3.
3 Calculate the number of selections 7
C2 = 21; that is, there are 21 ways of
of taking 2 T-shirts from a total of 7. selecting 2 T-shirts from a total of 7.
1 black × 1 white
4 Calculate the probability using the Pr(different colours) = -----------------------------------------
rule. 2 T-shirts from 7
5 Substitute the known values into the 4×3
= ------------
rule. 21
12
6 Evaluate. = ------
21
4
7 Simplify. = ---
7

d 1 Calculate the probability using the d Pr(same colours) = Pr(both black) +

rule. Pr(both white)
2 Substitute the known values into the = 2
--- + 1
---
rule. 7 7

3 Evaluate. = 3
---
7

remember
remember
1. Outcomes are results of experiments.
2. The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment is called the sample space
and is denoted by ε, and each possible outcome is called a sample point.
3. A subset of the sample space is known as an event.
4. The union (symbol ∪) of two events A and B implies a combined event, that
is, either event A or event B or both occurring. Common elements are written
only once.
5. The intersection (symbol ∩) of two events is represented by the common
sample points of the two events.
(Continued)
648 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

6. Venn diagrams involve drawing a rectangle that represents the sample space
and a series of circles that represent subsets of the sample space. They
provide a visual representation of the information at hand and clearly display
the relationship between sets.
7. The probability of an event occurring is defined by the rule
Number of favourable outcomes
Pr(A) = -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total number of possible outcomes
8. The probability of an event occurring lies within the restricted interval
0 ≤ Pr(A) ≤ 1
9. The individual probabilities of a particular experiment will sum to 1; that is,
∑ p( x) = 1
10. The addition rule of probability is defined by the rule
Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) − Pr(A ∩ B)
11. If two events, A and B, are mutually exclusive then Pr(A ∩ B) = 0, and
therefore the addition rule becomes Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B).
12. If two events, A and B, are independent then Pr(A ∩ B) = Pr(A) × Pr(B).
13. Karnaugh maps and probability tables summarise all combinations of two
events (for example A and B) and their complements (for example A′ and B′).
Pr ( A ∩ B )
14. Conditional probability is defined by the rule Pr(A|B) = ------------------------- , where
Pr ( B )
Pr(B) ≠ 0. This can be transposed to Pr(A ∩ B) = Pr(A|B) × Pr(B).
15. Tree diagrams are useful tools in solving probability tasks because they
display each of the possible outcomes along with their respective
probabilities.
16. A combination is defined by nCr ; that is, the number of selections of n
different objects taken r at a time.

13A Probability revision

WORKED 1 Two fair dice are rolled simultaneously and the sum of the two numbers appearing
Example
1
uppermost is recorded. Find the probability that the sum will be:
a 3
b 12
c 7
d greater than 4
e at least 7
f an even number
g a prime number.
WORKED 2 A bag contains 12 marbles comprising 3 black, 5 red and 4 green. One marble is
Example
2
drawn randomly from the bag.
a Determine the probability of each of the coloured marbles being drawn:
i black ii red iii green.
b Show that the probabilities sum to 1.
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 649
c What is the probability that the marble drawn is:
i not green
ii either black or red
iii neither red nor green
iv either black, red or green?

3 A fair coin is tossed three times. Find the probability of obtaining:

a three heads
b two heads
c one head
d no heads
e at least two heads.
1 1
4 A circular spinner is divided into 8 equal sectors and 1 2
numbered as shown in the diagram at right. If the spinner
is spun once, find the probability of obtaining:
5 2
a a one b a two c a three or a four or a five
d a one or a two. 4 3

WORKED 5 If Pr(A) = 0.3, Pr(B) = 0.6 and Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.2, find Pr(A ∪ B).
Example
3a

WORKED 6 If Pr(A) = 0.5, Pr(B) = 0.4 and Pr(A ∪ B) = 0.8, find Pr(A ∩ B).
Example
3b

7 If Pr(A) = 4 Pr(B), Pr(A ∪ B) = 0.8 and Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.2, find: a Pr(B) b Pr(A).

8 Of the 200 students studying VCE at Merlynston Secondary College, 80 study Maths
Methods, while there are 65 Physics students. If there are 85 students who don’t take
either Maths Methods or Physics, find the probability that a randomly selected
student:
a studies Maths Methods
b studies Physics
c studies neither Maths Methods nor Physics
d studies Maths Methods and Physics
e studies Physics, given that the student studies Maths Methods.

WORKED 9 Two fair dice are rolled, with F representing the probability of obtaining a number
Example
4
greater than 4 on the first die and G the probability of obtaining an even number on
the second. Find:
WORKED a Pr(F) b Pr(G)
Example
5
c if events F and G are mutually exclusive
d if events F and G are independent.

10 For two events P and Q, Pr(P) = 0.72, Pr(Q) = 0.25 and Pr(P ∪ Q) = 0.91. Are P and
Q mutually exclusive events?

11 For two events X and Y, Pr(X) = 0.4, Pr(Y) = 0.5 and Pr(X ∩ Y) = 0.2. Are X and Y
independent events?
650 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

WORKED 12 For the probability table shown, A is the event ‘is unfit’ and B is the event ‘is a
Example
smoker’.
6
a Complete the probability table at right.
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3

B B′
Row 1 A 0.22
Row 2 A′ 0.60 0.68
Row 3 1

b What do the following probabilities represent? i Pr(A ∩ B) ii Pr(A′ ∩ B′)

c What is the probability that:
i a person is unfit and a non-smoker?
ii a person is a smoker and fit?
iii a person is unfit and a smoker or is unfit and a non-smoker?
iv a person is a non-smoker?

WORKED 13 If Pr(A) = 1--- , Pr(B) = 1

--- and Pr(A ∩ B) = 1
--- find:
Example 2 3 6
7 a Pr(A ∪ B) b Pr(A | B) c Pr(B | A)
d if events A and B are mutually exclusive
e if events A and B are independent.

14 If Pr(A) = 0.4, Pr(B) = 0.5 and Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.2 find:

a Pr(A ∪ B) b Pr(A | B) c Pr(B | A).

WORKED 15 A recent study has shown that 60% of people who don’t wear glasses get regular
Example
8
headaches, while only 30% of people who wear glasses are headache sufferers. If
35% of people wear glasses, find the probability that a randomly selected person:
a wears glasses and gets headaches
b does not wear glasses and suffers from headaches
c suffers from headaches
d wears glasses, given that the person suffers from headaches.
16 Dale knows that if his alarm goes off, he
has a 90% chance of getting to school on
time. However, if the alarm does not ring,
his chance of arriving on time is only
40%. If Dale’s alarm clock works only
60% of the time, what is the probability
that:
a he gets to school on time
b he arrives late to school
c his alarm rang, given that he arrived on
time.

17 A bag contains 5 red marbles and 3 green marbles. A marble is selected at random, its
colour is observed and it is then replaced. A second selection is then made. Find the
probability that the two marbles chosen were:
a both red b both green
c different colours d the same colour.
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 651
18 multiple choice
Two fair dice are rolled. The probability of the numbers showing uppermost on both
dice being the same is:
1 1 1 1 1
A ------ B ------ C --- D --- E ---
36 18 6 3 2

19 multiple choice
If Pr(S) = 0.2, Pr(T) = 0.5 and Pr(S ∪ T) = 0.6, which one of the following is not true?
A Pr(S ∩ T) = 0.1 B Pr(S | T) = 0.2 C Pr(T | S) = 0.5
D S and T are mutually exclusive. E S and T are independent.

20 multiple choice
The probability of picking a red picture card from a standard pack of playing cards is:
1 3 2 3 1
A --- B ------ C ------ D ------ E ------
2 13 13 26 26

21 multiple choice
If Pr(M) = 0.3, Pr(N) = 0.4 and Pr(M | N) = 0.5 then Pr(M ∩ N) is equal to:
A 0.15 B 0.2 C 0.6 D 0.75 E 0.8
WORKED 22 A fair coin is tossed three times. Find the probability of obtaining three tails, given
Example
9
that the first toss resulted in a tail.

23 If Pr(A) = 0.6, Pr(B) = 0.5 and Pr(A ∩ B) = 0.36, find:

a Pr(A′) b Pr(B′) c Pr(A ∪ B)
d Pr(A′ ∩ B′) e Pr(A′ ∪ B) f Pr(A | B)
g Pr(B | A) h Pr(A | B′) i Pr(B | A′).
WORKED 24 A drawer contains six T-shirts, of which two are white and the rest are black. If two
Example
10
T-shirts are randomly selected from the drawer simultaneously, find the probability
that they are:
a both black b both white c different colours d the same colour.

25 A box contains one dozen chocolates, of which 4 are strawberry creams, 3 are orange
creams and 5 are peppermint creams. Two chocolates are selected at random. Find the
probability that they are both the same type if:
a the first chocolate is replaced before the second is drawn
b the first chocolate is not replaced before the second is drawn.

26 multiple choice
A fair die has its 4-spot changed to a 5-spot and its 2-spot changed to a 3-spot. The
probability of getting an even number when the altered die is rolled is:
1 1 1 2 5
A --- B --- C --- D --- E ---
6 3 2 3 6

27 multiple choice
A box contains 3 red balls and 2 green balls. Two balls are chosen simultaneously.
The probability that they are the same colour is:
8 2 13 3 13
A ------ B --- C ------ D --- E ------
25 5 25 5 20
652 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

28 A bag contains 5 red cubes and 3 black cubes. Three cubes are chosen at random.
Find the probability of at least 2 reds being chosen, given that the first cube was red:
a if the cubes are replaced after each draw
b if the cubes are not replaced after each draw.

29 Jo-anne knows that her chance of winning each tennis match she plays is 0.8. A
knockout tournament requires players to win five matches to win the championship.
What is the probability that Jo-anne:
a wins the tournament?
b wins the tournament given that she wins her first three matches?

30 In a particular suburb the chances of a woman owning her own home is 0.4, while the
probability of a woman owning her own home and being employed is 0.2. Find the
probability that a woman who owns her own home is also employed.

31 The probability of Vanessa’s car starting on a cold morning is 0.6, while on a normal
morning the chance of it starting is 0.9. The probability of any morning being a cold
one is 0.3. If Vanessa’s car starts tomorrow morning, find the probability that the
morning will be cold.

32 The Roosters know that they will win 80% of their home matches and 40% of their
away matches. This season’s fixture has the Roosters playing 55% of their games at
home. Given that the Roosters won their last game, what was the probability that it
was played at home?

33 Tatiana is trying out for a place on the high jump team. In order to qualify she must
clear three of the four heights. She knows that she has a 70% chance of clearing the
first height and a 65% chance of clearing any subsequent height. What is the prob-
ability that Tatiana:
a clears the first, third and fourth heights only?
b clears three heights?
c clears three heights, given she did not clear the first height?

Discrete random variables

A random variable is one whose value cannot be predicted but is determined by the out-
come of an experiment. For example, two dice are rolled simultaneously a number of
times. The sum of the numbers appearing uppermost is recorded. The possible out-
comes we could expect are {2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12}. Since the possible out-
comes may vary each time the dice are rolled, the sum of the numbers appearing
uppermost is a random variable.
Random variables are expressed as capital letters, usually from the end of the
alphabet (for example, X, Y, Z) and the value they can take on is represented by lower-
case letters (for example, x, y, z respectively).
The above situation illustrates an example of a discrete random variable since the
possible outcomes were able to be counted. Discrete random variables generally deal
with number or size.
A random variable which can take on any value is defined as a continuous random
variable. Continuous random variables generally deal with quantities which can be
measured, such as mass, height or time.
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 653
WORKED Example 11
Which of the following represent discrete random variables?
a The number of goals scored at a football match
b The height of students in a Maths Methods class
c Shoe sizes
d The number of girls in a five-child family
e The time taken to run a distance of 10 kilometres in minutes
THINK WRITE
Determine whether the variable can be
counted or needs to be measured.
a Goals can be counted. a Discrete
b Height must be measured. b Continuous
c The number of shoe sizes can be counted. c Discrete
d The number of girls can be counted. d Discrete
e Time must be measured. e Continuous

Discrete probability distributions

When dealing with random variables, the probabilities associated with them are often
required.

WORKED Example 12
Let X represent the number of tails obtained in three tosses. Draw up a table which displays
the values the discrete random variable can assume and the corresponding probabilities.
THINK WRITE
1 Draw a tree diagram and list all of the H
possible outcomes. H
T
H
H
T
T

H H
T
T
H
T
T
HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT
2 Draw a table with two columns: one
labelled number of tails, the other Number of tails Probability
probability. (x) Pr(x)
1
0 ---
3 Enter the information into the table. 8
3
1 ---
8
3
2 ---
8
1
3 ---
8
654 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

The table on the previous page displays the probability distribution of the total number
of tails obtained in three tosses of a fair coin. Since the variable in this case is discrete,
the table displays a discrete probability distribution.
In worked example 12, X denoted the random variable and x the value which the
random variable could take. Thus the probability can be denoted by p(x) or Pr (X = x).
Hence the table in worked example 12 could be presented as shown below.

x 0 1 2 3

Pr(X = x) 1
---
8
3
---
8
3
---
8
1
---
8

Close inspection of this table shows important characteristics which satisfy all discrete
probability distributions.
1. Each probability lies in a restricted interval 0 ≤ Pr(X = x) ≤ 1.
2. The probabilities of a particular experiment sum to 1, that is,
Σ Pr(X = x) = 1
If these two characteristics are not satisfied, then there is no discrete probability
distribution.

WORKED Example 13
Draw a probability distribution graph of the outcomes in worked example 12.

THINK WRITE
1 Draw a set of axes in the first quadrant Pr(X = x)
only. Label the horizontal axis x and the
vertical axis Pr(X = x). 3–
8

2 Mark graduations evenly along the 2–

8
horizontal and vertical axes, and label 1–
with appropriate values. 8

3 Draw a straight line from each x-value 0 1 2 3 x

to its corresponding probability.

Note: The probability distribution graph may also be drawn as follows.

Pr(X = x) Pr(X = x)

3– 3–
8 8
2– 2–
8 8
1– 1–
8 8

0 1 2 3 x 0 1 2 3 x
A column graph A dot graph
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 655
WORKED Example 14
Which of the following tables represent a discrete probability distribution?

a x 0 1 2 3 b x 0 2 4 6
Pr(X = x) 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 Pr(X = x) 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1

c x −1 0 1 2 d x −2 0 5 7
Pr(X = x) 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 Pr(X = x) −0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4

THINK WRITE

a 1 Check whether each of the probabilities lie a All probabilities lie between
within the restricted interval 0 ≤ Pr(X = x) ≤ 1. 0 and 1 inclusive.

2 Check that the probabilities sum to 1. 0.2 + 0.5 + 0.2 + 0.1 = 1

3 Answer the question. Yes, this is a discrete probability
distribution since both requirements
have been met.

b 1 Check whether each of the probabilities lie b All probabilities lie between 0 and 1
within the restricted interval 0 ≤ Pr(X = x) ≤ 1. inclusive.
2 Check that the probabilities sum to 1. 0.5 + 0.3 + 0.1 + 0.1 = 1
3 Answer the question. Yes, this is a discrete probability
distribution since both requirements
have been met.

c 1 Check whether each of the probabilities lie c All probabilities lie between 0 and 1
within the restricted interval 0 ≤ Pr(X = x) ≤ 1. inclusive.
2 Check that the probabilities sum to 1. 0.2 + 0.1 + 0.3 + 0.3 ≠ 1 (totals to 0.9)
3 Answer the question. No, this is not a discrete probability
distribution since both requirements
have not been met.

d 1 Check whether each of the probabilities lie d The first probability is a negative value, so
within the restricted interval 0 ≤ Pr(X = x) ≤ 1. not all probabilities lie between 0 and 1
inclusive.
2 Check that the probabilities sum to 1. −0.2 + 0.3 + 0.5 + 0.4 = 1
3 Answer the question. No, this is not a discrete
probability distribution since both
requirements have not been met.
656 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

WORKED Example 15
Find the value of k for each of the following discrete probability distributions.

a x 1 3 5 7 9
Pr(X = x) 0.2 k 0.2 0.3 0.1

b x 0 1 2 3 4
Pr(X = x) 5k 6k 4k 3k 2k

THINK WRITE
a 1 Add up each of the given probabilities. a Σ Pr ( X = x ) = 1
They should sum to 1. 0.2 + k + 0.2 + 0.3 + 0.1 = 1
2 Simplify. 0.8 + k = 1
3 Solve to find k. k = 1 − 0.8
= 0.2
b 1 Add up each of the given probabilities. b
They should sum to 1. 5k + 6k + 4k + 3k + 2k = 1
2 Simplify. 20k = 1
3 Solve to find k. k= 1
------
20

WORKED Example 16
a Show that the function p(x) = 1
------ (5x
42
+ 3), where x = 0, 1, 2, 3 is a probability function.

b Show that the function p(x) = 1

--------- x2
100
(6 − x), where x = 2, 3, 4, 5 is a probability function.

THINK WRITE

a 1 Substitute each of the x-values into the a When x = 0, p(x) = 3

------
42
equation and obtain the corresponding
probability. = 1
------
14

2 Simplify where possible. When x = 1, p(x) = 8

------
42

= 4
------
21

When x = 2, p(x) = 13
------
42

When x = 3, p(x) = 18
------
42

= 3
---
7
3 Check whether each of the probabilities lie All probabilities lie between 0 and 1
within the restricted interval 0 ≤ Pr(X = x) ≤ 1. inclusive.
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 657

THINK WRITE

4 Check whether the probabilities sum to 1.

1
------ + 4
------ + 13
------ + 3
--- =1
14 21 42 7

5 State whether the function is a Yes, this is a probability function since

probability function. both requirements have been met.

b 1 Substitute each of the x-values into the b When x = 2, p(x) = 16

---------
100
equation and obtain the corresponding
= 4
------
probability. 25

2 Simplify where possible. When x = 3, p(x) = 27

---------
100
When x = 4, p(x) = 32
---------
100
= 8
------
25
When x = 5, p(x) = 25
---------
100
= 1
---
4
3 Check whether each of the probabilities lie All probabilities lie between 0 and 1
within the restricted interval 0 ≤ Pr(X = x) ≤ 1. inclusive.
4 Check whether the probabilities sum to 1.
4
------ + 27
--------- + 8
------ + 1
--- =1
25 100 25 4

5 State whether the function is a Yes, this is a probability function since

probability function. both requirements have been met.

WORKED Example 17
Three balls are selected from a box containing 6 blue balls and 4 yellow balls. If the ball
chosen after each selection is replaced before the next selection, find:
a the probability distribution for the number of blue balls drawn:
i 0 blue balls ii 1 blue ball iii 2 blue balls iv 3 blue balls
b the probability that 2 blue balls are chosen, given that at least one ball was blue.
THINK WRITE/DRAW
a i 1 Draw a tree diagram and list all the 6 Outcomes Probability
— 6 =
possible outcomes with their 6
10 B BBB —6
10
×—6
×—
10 10
216
–––
— B 1000
respective probabilities. 10
—4 Y BBY —6
×—6
×—
4 = 144
–––
10 10 10 10 1000
6 B 6
—
10
—
10 B BYB —6
10
×—4
×—
6
10 10
= 144
–––
—4 1000
Y 96
10
—4 Y BYY —6
10
×—4
×—
4
10 10
= ––
10 —6 1000
6 10 B YBB —4
×—6
×—
6 = 144
–––
—
10 B 10 10 10 1000
4 4 Y YBY = –––
96
—
10
—
10
—4
10
×—6
×—
4
10 10
Y 6
1000
96
4
—
10 B YYB —4
10
×—4
×—
6
10 10
= –––
— Y 1000
10
—4 Y YYY —4
10
×—4
×—
4
10 10
= –––
64
10 1000

Continued over page

658 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

THINK WRITE/DRAW

64
2 Obtain the probability required. Pr(0 blue balls) = ------------ (or 0.064)
1000

ii 1 List the required probabilities ii Pr(1 blue ball) = Pr(BYY) + Pr(YBY)

from the tree diagram obtained + Pr(YYB)
in part i.
Note: Three outcomes correspond
to 1 blue ball.
96
2 Evaluate and simplify. = 3 × ------------
1000
288
= ------------ (or 0.288)
1000

iii 1 List the required probabilities iii Pr(2 blue balls) = Pr(BBY) + Pr(BYB)
from the tree diagram obtained + Pr(YBB)
in part i.
Note: Three outcomes correspond
to 2 blue balls.
144
2 Evaluate and simplify. = 3 × ------------
1000
432
= ------------ (or 0.432)
1000

216
iv 1 Obtain the probability required. iv Pr(3 blue balls) = ------------ (or 0.216)
1000
2 Place all of the information in
a table. x 0 1 2 3
Pr (X = x) 0.064 0.288 0.432 0.216

3 Check that the probabilities Σ Pr(X = x) = 0.064 + 0.288 + 0.432 + 0.216

sum to 1. Σ Pr(X = x) = 1

b Define the rule. Pr ( X = 3 ∩ X > 1 )

b Pr ( X = 3 X > 1 ) = ---------------------------------------------
1 -
Pr ( X > 1 )
2 Determine each of the probabilities. Pr ( X = 3 ∩ X > 1 ) = Pr (X = 3 ) = 0.216

Pr ( X > 1 ) = 0.432 + 0.216

= 0.648
0.216
3 Substitute values into the rule. Pr(X = 3 | X > 1) = -------------
0.648
4 Evaluate and simplify. 1
= --- (or 0.3333)
3
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 659
remember
remember
1. Discrete random variables generally deal with number or size and are able to be
counted.
2. A discrete probability distribution exists only if the following two
characteristics are satisfied.
(a) Each probability lies in a restricted interval 0 ≤ Pr(X = x) ≤ 1.
(b) The probabilities of a particular experiment sum to 1, that is, Σ Pr(X = x) = 1.

13B Discrete random variables

WORKED 1 Which of the following represent discrete random variables?
Example
11
a The number of people at a tennis match
b The time taken to read this question
c The length of the left arms of students in your class
d The shoe sizes of twenty people
e The weights of babies at a maternity ward
f The number of grains in ten 250-gram packets of rice
g The height of jockeys competing in a certain race
h The number of books in Melbourne libraries
WORKED 2 a If X represents the number of heads obtained in two tosses of a coin, draw up a
Example
12, 13
table which displays the values that the discrete random variable can assume and
the corresponding probabilities.
b Draw a probability distribution graph of the outcomes in part a.

3 A fair coin is tossed three times and a note is taken of the number of tails.
a List the possible outcomes.
b List the possible values of the random variable X, representing the number of
tails obtained in the three tosses.
c Find the probability distribution of X.
d Find Pr(X ≤ 2).

4 Draw graphs for each of the following probability distributions.

a x 1 2 3 4 5
Pr(X = x) 0.05 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.05

b x 5 10 15 20
Pr(X = x) 0.5 0.3 0.15 0.05

c x 2 4 6 8 10
Pr(X = x) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1

d x 1 2 3 4
Pr(X = x) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
660 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

WORKED 5 Which of the following tables represent a discrete probability distribution?

Example
14 a x 1 3 5 7 9
Pr(X = x) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1

b x 1 2 3 4 5
Pr(X = x) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
c x 3 6 9 12 15
Pr(X = x) 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 − 0.1

d x −4 −3 −1 1 2
Pr(X = x) 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2
WORKED 6 Find the value of k for each of the following discrete probability distributions.
Example
15 a x 1 2 3 4 5
Pr(X = x) 0.3 0.2 0.2 k 0.1

b x 2 4 6 8 10
Pr(X = x) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 k

c x 0 1 2 3 4
Pr(X = x) k 2k 3k 4k k

d x −2 −1 0 1 2
Pr(X = x) k 0.2 3k 0.3 0.1
7 Find the value of k for the following discrete probability distribution.
a x 1 2 3 4 5
2 2
3k k 5k – 4 k 7
Pr(X = x) ------ ------ --------------- ------ ------
13 13 13 13 13
b Explain why one of the values of k had to be discarded.
8 Two fair dice are rolled simultaneously, and X, the sum of the two numbers appearing
uppermost, is recorded.
a Draw up a table which displays the probability distribution of X, and find:
b Pr(X > 9)
c Pr(X < 6)
d Pr(4 ≤ X < 6)
e Pr(3 ≤ X ≤ 9)
f Pr(X < 12)
g Pr(6 ≤ X < 10).
9 A spinner is numbered from 1 to 5, with each number being equally likely to come
up. If X is the random variable representing the number showing on the spinner, find:
a the probability distribution of X
b the probability of getting an even number
c Pr(X > 2).
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 661
10 A fair die is rolled and X is the square of the number appearing uppermost.
a Draw up a table which displays the probability distribution of X, and find:
b Pr(X < 30)
c Pr(X > 10).
11 A fair die is altered so that the 1 is changed to a 5. If X is the random variable repre-
senting the number uppermost on the die, find:
a the probability distribution of X
b the probability of a number bigger than 2 appearing uppermost
c Pr(X = 5 | X > 2).

WORKED 12 Show that the function p(x) = 1

------ (8x + 2), where x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 is a probability
Example 90
16a
function.

WORKED 13 Show that the function p(x) = 1 2

--------- x (x + 2), where x = 1, 2, 3, 4 is a probability
Example 160
16b
function.

WORKED 14 Three balls are selected from a box containing 4 red balls and 5 blue balls. If the ball
Example
17
chosen after each selection is replaced before the next selection, find:
a the probability distribution for the number of red balls drawn:
i 0 red balls ii 1 red ball iii 2 red balls iv 3 red balls
b the probability that three reds are chosen, given that at least one ball is red.
15 A circular spinner, divided into five equal sectors numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, is spun
twice, and the sum of the numbers the pointer lands on is recorded. The following
events are then defined.
A = ‘an odd number on the first spin’
B = ‘an even number on the second spin’
C = ‘the sum of the two numbers is odd’
D = ‘the sum of the two numbers is at most 7’
a List each of the possible outcomes.
b Find:
i Pr(A) ii Pr(B) iii Pr(C) iv Pr(D)
c Find:
i Pr(A | B) ii Pr(B | C) iii Pr(C | D)

16 A biased coin is tossed twice. If the probability of obtaining a head is 3--- :

5
a find the probability distribution of the number of heads in 2 tosses
b show that the sum of the probabilities is 1.

17 A discrete random variable has the following probability distribution:

x 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Pr(X = x) 0.2 0.11 0.15 0.09 0.17 0.13 0.15
Find:
a Pr(X > 3) b Pr(X ≤ 4)
c Pr(3 ≤ X ≤ 6) d Pr(2 < X < 5)
e Pr(X < 3 | X < 5) f {x: Pr(X < x) = 0.46}
g {x: Pr(X ≥ x) = 0.54}
662 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

18 multiple choice
Which one of the following random variables is not discrete?
A The price, in cents, of a loaf of bread at the local supermarket
B The number of runs scored by a batsman in each innings over a season
C The weight of a baby as he grows over a one-year period
D The number of houses sold by a real estate agent each month for a year
E The number of newspapers recycled by a family each month.
19 multiple choice
What is the value of k which will make this table a probability distribution table?
x 1 2 3 4
Pr(X = x) 2k 3k 4k k
A 0 B 1 C 0.1 D 1
--- E −0.1
9

20 multiple choice
Examine the following probability distribution table.
x 4 9 16 25 36
Pr(X = x) 0.16 0.21 0.35 0.08 0.2
Pr(X ≥ 10) is equal to:
A 0.38 B 0.84 C 0.35 D 0.28 E 0.63

21 multiple choice
The following table represents a discrete probability distribution for a random variable, Y.
x 4 7 10 13
Pr(X = x) d 4d 5d 2d
The value of d is:
A 1--- B 1
------ C 1
------ D 1
------ E 1
------
9 10 11 12 13

22 multiple choice
A coin is biased so that the probability of obtaining a head is --3- . If the coin is tossed 3
7
times the probability of obtaining exactly 2 heads is:
27
A --------
- B 108--------- C 144--------- D 135
---------
64
E --------
-
343 343 343 343 343

23 multiple choice
Which of the following is a probability function?
A p(x) = 0.1, 0.3, 0.4, 0.2, 0.1, x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4
B p(x) = 1
------ (3x + 7), x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4
66

C p(x) = 1
------ (5x − 1), x = 1, 2, 3, 4
40

D p(x) = 1 2
------ x (4 − x), x = 1, 2, 3
20

x2
E p(x) = ------ (3x − 1), x = 1, 2, 3
20
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 663
24 If the random variable X represents the number of boys in a four-child family:
a write the values that X may take
b assuming that the Pr(boy) = 1--- , find the probability distribution of X.
2

25 A School Committee of 4 people is to be selected from a group of 6 students and 3

staff. If the random variable, Y, represents the number of students on the committee,
find the probability distribution of Y.

Expected value of discrete random

distributions
The expected value of a discrete random variable, X, is the average value of X. It is also
referred to as the mean of X or the expectation.

The expected value of a discrete random variable, X, is denoted by E(X) or the

symbol µ (mu). It is defined as the sum of each value of X multiplied by its
respective probability; that is,
E(X) = x1Pr(X = x1) + x2Pr(X = x2) + x3Pr(X = x3) + . . . + xnPr(X = xn)
= ∑ x Pr(X = x)
alllx

Note: The expected value will not always assume a discrete value.

WORKED Example 18
Find the expected value of a random variable which has the following probability
distribution.

x 1 2 3 4 5

Pr(X = x) 2
---
5 10
1
------
3
------
10
1
------
10
1
------
10

THINK WRITE

1 Write the rule for the expected value. E(X) = ∑ x Pr ( X = x )

alllx

2 Substitute the values into the rule. E(X) = 1 × 2

--- +2× 1
------ +3× 3
------ +4× 1
------ +5× 1
------
5 10 10 10 10

3 Evaluate. = 2
--- + 2
------ + 9
------ + 4
------ + 5
------
5 10 10 10 10

= 2 2---
5

The probability distribution table can also be used to determine the mode, that is, the
variable with the largest probability. In worked example 18, the mode is 1.
664 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

WORKED Example 19
Find the unknown probability, a, and hence determine the expected value of a random
variable which has the following probability distribution.

x 2 4 6 8 10

Pr(X = x) 0.2 0.4 a 0.1 0.1

THINK WRITE
1 Determine the unknown value of a 0.2 + 0.4 + a + 0.1 + 0.1 = 1
using the knowledge that the sum 0.8 + a = 1
of the probabilities must total 1.
a = 1 − 0.8
= 0.2

2 Write the rule for the expected E(X) = ∑ x Pr ( X = x )

alllx
value.
3 Substitute the values into the rule. E(X) = 2 × 0.2 + 4 × 0.4 + 6 × 0.2 + 8 × 0.1 + 10 × 0.1
4 Evaluate. = 0.4 + 1.6 + 1.2 + 0.8 + 1
=5

WORKED Example 20
Find the values of a and b of the following probability distribution if E(X) = 4.29.
x 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Pr(X = x) 0.1 0.1 a 0.3 0.2 b 0.2

THINK WRITE
1 Write an equation for the values of 0.1 + 0.1 + a + 0.3 + 0.2 + b + 0.2 = 1
a and b using the knowledge that 0.9 + a + b = 1
the sum of the probabilities must a + b = 1 − 0.9
total 1. Call this equation [1]. a + b = 0.1 [1]
2 Write the rule for the expected E(X) = ∑ x Pr ( X = x )
alllx
value.
3 Substitute the values into the rule. 4.29 = 1 × 0.1 + 2 × 0.1 + 3 × a + 4 × 0.3 + 5 × 0.2
+ 6 × b + 7 × 0.2
4 Evaluate and call this equation [2]. = 0.1 + 0.2 + 3a + 1.2 + 1 + 6b + 1.4
4.29 − 3.9 = 3a + 6b
3a + 6b = 0.39 [2]
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 665

THINK WRITE
5 Solve the equations a + b = 0.1 [1]
simultaneously. 3a + 6b = 0.39 [2]
3 × (a + b = 0.1)
Multiply equation [1] by 3 and call 3a + 3b = 0.3 [3]
it equation [3]. [2] − [3]: 3b = 0.09
Subtract equation [3] from b = 0.03
equation [2]. Solve for b.
Substitute b = 0.03 into equation a + 0.03 = 0.1
[1]. Solve for a. a = 0.1 − 0.03
= 0.07

6 Answer the question. a = 0.07 and b = 0.03

WORKED Example 21
Niki and Melanie devise a gambling game based on tossing three coins simultaneously. If
three heads or three tails are obtained, the player wins $20. Otherwise the player loses $5.
In order to make a profit they charge each person two dollars to play.
a What is the expected gain to the player? b Do Niki and Melanie make a profit?
c Is this a fair game?

THINK WRITE
a 1 List the possible outcomes and a S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT,
place all of the information in TTH, TTT}
a table.
x 0 1 2 3
Pr(X = x) 1
---
8
3
---
8
3
---
8
1
---
8

Gain ($) 20 −5 −5 20

2 Write the rule for the expected E(X) = ∑ x Pr ( X = x )

value. alllx

3 Substitute the values into the rule. = 20 × 1

--- + −5 × 3
--- + −5 × 3
--- + 20 × 1
---
8 8 8 8

4 Evaluate. = 20
------ − 15
------ − 15
------ + 20
------
8 8 8 8

= 10
------
8
= $1.25
5 Answer the question. The player’s expected gain per game is $1.25;
however, as each game incurs a cost of $2, the
player in fact loses 75c per game.
Continued over page
666 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

THINK WRITE
b Answer the question using the results b The girls make a profit of 75c per game.
from a.

c Answer the question using the results c No, this is not a fair game, since the cost to play
from a. each game does not equal the expected gain of
Note: In a fair game E(X) = 0. each game.

It is important to understand that the expected value signifies the average outcome of an
experiment and can be used to determine the feasibility of a situation. The worked
example above illustrates that, in the long run, the player will lose on average 75 cents
per game; it does not mean the player will lose 75 cents each time the game is played.

Expectation theorems

WORKED Example 22
A random variable has the following probability distribution.

x 1 2 3 4
Pr(X = x) 0.25 0.26 0.14 0.35

Find: a E(X) b E(3X)

c E(2X − 4) d E(X2).

THINK WRITE

a 1 Write the rule for the expected value. a E(X) = ∑ x Pr ( X = x )

alllx

2 Substitute the values into the rule. E(X) = 1 × 0.25 + 2 × 0.26 + 3 × 0.14
+ 4 × 0.35
3 Evaluate. = 0.25 + 0.52 + 0.42 + 1.4
= 2.59

b 1 Write the rule for the expected value. b E(3X) = ∑ 3x Pr ( X = x )

alllx

2 Substitute the values into the rule. E(3X) = (3 × 1) × 0.25 + (3 × 2) × 0.26

+ (3 × 3) × 0.14 + (3 × 4) × 0.35
3 Evaluate. = 3 × 0.25 + 6 × 0.26
Note: 1. The probability remains the + 9 × 0.14 + 12 × 0.35
same. = 0.75 + 1.56 + 1.26 + 4.2
2. Each x-value is multiplied by 3 = 7.77
because of the new function, 3x.
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 667
THINK WRITE

c 1 Write the rule for the expected value. c E(2X − 4) = ∑ ( 2x – 4 )Pr ( X = x )

alllx
2 Substitute the values into the rule. = (2 × 1 − 4) × 0.25 +
(2 × 2 − 4) × 0.26 +
(2 × 3 − 4) × 0.14 +
(2 × 4 − 4) × 0.35
3 Evaluate. = −2 × 0.25 + 0 × 0.26 +
Note: 1. The probability remains the same. 2 × 0.14 + 4 × 0.35
2. Each x-value is multiplied by 2 = −0.5 + 0 + 0.28 + 1.4
and then 4 is subtracted from the = 1.18
result, because of the new
function, 2x − 4.
d 1 Write the rule for the expected value. d E(X 2) = ∑ x 2 Pr ( X = x )
alllx

2 Substitute the values into the rule. = (12) × 0.25 + (22) × 0.26 +
(32) × 0.14 + (42) × 0.35
3 Evaluate. = 1 × 0.25 + 4 × 0.26 +
Note: 1. The probability remains the same. 9 × 0.14 + 16 × 0.35
2. Each x-value is squared because of = 0.25 + 1.04 + 1.26 + 5.6
the new function, x2. = 8.15

The above worked example displays some important points that shall be investigated.
For this example, E(X) = 2.59
from part (b) E(3X) = 7.77
note that 3E(X) = 3 × 2.59
= 7.77
from part (c) E(2X − 4) = 1.18
note that 2E(X) − 4 = 2 × 2.59 − 4
= 1.18
Hence if X is a random variable and a is a constant, its expected value is defined by
E(aX) = aE(X). Furthermore, if X is a random variable where a and b are constants,
then the expected value of a linear function in the form f (X) = aX + b is defined by
E(aX + b) = aE(X) + b
If a = 0 then E(aX + b) = aE(X) + b
becomes E(0X + b) = 0E(X) + b
=b
These rules are called expectation theorems and are summarised below.
E(aX) = aE(X) where X is a random variable and a is a constant.
E(aX + b) = aE(X) + b where X is a random variable and a and b are constants.
E(b) = b where b is a constant.
E(X + Y) = E(X) + E(Y) where X and Y are both random variables.
These theorems make it easier to calculate the expected values.
Finally, from part (d) of the above example it can be seen that
E(X2) ≠ [E(X)]2
668 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

WORKED Example 23
Casey decides to apply for a job selling mobile phones. She receives a base salary of $200
per month and $15 for every mobile phone sold. The following table shows the probability
of a particular number of mobile phones, x, being sold per month. What would be the
expected salary Casey would receive each month?

x 50 100 150 200 250

Pr(X = x) 0.48 0.32 0.1 0.06 0.04

THINK WRITE
Method 1
1 Define a random variable. Let X = the number of mobile phones sold by Casey
in a month.
2 Write the rule for the expected E(15X + 200) = ∑ ( 15x + 200 )Pr ( X = x )
salary. alllx

3 Substitute the values into the rule. = (15 × 50 + 200) × 0.48 +

(15 × 100 + 200) × 0.32 +
(15 × 150 + 200) × 0.1 +
(15 × 200 + 200) × 0.06 +
(15 × 250 + 200) × 0.04
4 Evaluate. = 950 × 0.48 + 1700 × 0.32 +
2450 × 0.1 + 3200 × 0.06 +
3950 × 0.04
= 456 + 544 + 245 + 192 + 158
= 1595
5 Answer the question. The expected salary Casey would receive each
month would be $1595.
Method 2
Using the expectation theorem:
1 Write the rule for the expected E(X) = ∑ xPr ( X = x )
alllx
salary.
2 Substitute the values into the rule. = 50 × 0.48 + 100 × 0.32 + 150 × 0.1 +
200 × 0.06 + 250 × 0.04
3 Evaluate. = 24 + 32 + 15 + 12 + 10
= 93
4 Using the fact that E(aX + b) = E(15X + 200) = 15E(X) + 200
aE(X) + b find E(15X + 200). = 15 × 93 + 200
= 1595

Note: Using the expectation theorem is quicker because it is easier to evaluate

aE(X) + b than E(aX + b).
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 669
remember
remember
1. The expected value of a discrete random variable, X, is defined by the rule
E(X) = ∑ x Pr(X = x). Also E(X2) = ∑ x2 Pr(X = x).
all x all x
2. A game is considered fair if the cost to play the game is equal to the expected
gain.
3. A fair game is one in which E(X) = 0.
4. The expected value of a linear function can be calculated using the expectation
theorems:
E(aX) = aE(X)
E(aX + b) = aE(X) + b
E(b) = b
E(X + Y) = E(X) + E(Y)
5. E(X2) ≠ [E(X)]2

Expected value of discrete

13C random distributions
WORKED 1 Find the expected value of a random variable which has the following probability
Example
18
distribution.
x 0 3 6 9 12
Pr(X = x) 0.21 0.08 0.19 0.17 0.35

2 Find the expected value of a random variable which has the following probability
distribution.
x −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4
Pr(X = x) 18
1
------
1
---
3 18
1
------
2
---
9
1
---
6
1
------
18
1
---
9

WORKED 3 Find the unknown probability, a, and hence determine the expected value of a random
Example
19
variable which has the following probability distribution.
x 1 3 5 7 9 11
Pr(X = x) 0.11 0.3 0.15 0.25 a 0.1
4 Find the unknown probability, a, and hence determine the expected value of a random
variable which has the following probability distribution.
x −2 1 4 7 10 13
Pr(X = x) 18
5
------ a 1
---
9
5
------
18
1
------
18
2
---
9

5 Find the unknown probability, b, and hence determine the expected value of a random
variable which has the following probability distribution.
x 0 1 2 3 4 5
Pr(X = x) b 0.2 0.02 3b 0.1 0.08
670 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

6 Find the value of k, and hence determine the expected value of a random variable
which has the following probability distribution.
x 4 8 12 16 20
Pr(X = x) 6k 2k k 3k 8k

7 If X represents the outcome of a fair die being rolled, find:

a the probability distribution of each outcome b E(X).

8 Two fair dice are rolled simultaneously. If X represents the sum of the two numbers
appearing uppermost, find:
a the probability distribution of each outcome b E(X).
9 A fair coin is tossed 4 times. If X represents the number of tails obtained, find:
a the probability distribution of each outcome b E(X).
WORKED 10 Find the values of a and b of the following distribution if E(X) = 1.91.
Example
20 x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Pr(X = x) 0.2 0.32 a 0.18 b 0.05 0.05

11 Find the values of a and b of the following distribution if E(X) = 2.41.

x 0 1 2 3 4 5
Pr(X = x) 0.2 a 0.23 0.15 b 0.12
WORKED 12 Lucas contemplates playing a new game which involves tossing three coins simul-
Example
21
taneously. He will receive $15 if he obtains 3 heads, $10 if he obtains 2 heads and $5
if he obtains 1 head. However, if he obtains no heads he must pay $30. He must also
pay $5 for each game he plays.
a What is Lucas’s expected gain? b Should he play the game? Why?
c Is this a fair game? Why?
13 Angie plays a game based on tossing three coins simultaneously. She will receive $10
if she obtains 3 tails, $5 if she obtains 2 heads and $5 if she obtains 1 tail. However,
if she obtains no tails she must pay $40.
a What is Angie’s expected gain?
b Should she play the game? Why?
c Is this a fair game? Why?
14 X is a discrete random variable with the following probability distribution.
x 2 4 7 k
Pr(X = x) 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1
Find the value of k if the mean is 5.3.
15 X is a discrete random variable with the following probability distribution.
x −2 3 8 10 14 k
Pr(X = x) 0.1 0.08 0.07 0.27 0.16 0.32
Find the value of k if the mean is 10.98.
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 671
16 A coin is biased such that the probability of obtaining a tail is 0.6. If X represents the
number of tails in three tosses of the coin, find:
a the probability distribution of X b E(X) c the mode.
WORKED 17 A random variable has the following probability distribution.
Example
22 x 1 2 3 4
2 7 1 1
Pr(X = x) ------
15
------
15
---
3
------
15
Find:
a E(X) b E(4X) c E(2X + 1) d E(X2).
18 A random variable has the following probability distribution.
x 1 2 3 4
Pr(X = x) 0.33 0.25 0.27 0.15
Find:
a E(X) b E(4X − 6)
c E(X2 + 1) d E(3X2).

WORKED 19 Christian decides to apply for a job selling mobile

Example
23
phones. He receives a base salary of $180 per month and
$12 for every mobile phone sold. The following table
shows the probability of a particular number of mobile
phones, x, being sold per month. What would be the
expected salary Christian would receive each month?

x 50 100 150 200 250

Pr(X = x) 0.32 0.38 0.2 0.06 0.04

Variance and standard deviation of

discrete random distributions
Variance
Variance is an important feature of probability distributions as it provides information
about the spread of the distribution with respect to the mean. If the variance is large, it
implies that the possible values are spread (or deviate) quite a distance from the mean.
A small variance implies that the possible values are close to the mean. Variance is also
called a measure of spread or dispersion.
The variance is written as Var(X) and denoted by the symbol σ 2 (sigma squared). It is
defined as the expected value (or average) of the squares of the spreads (deviations)
from the mean.
The rule for variance is given by: Var(X) = E(X − µ)2
= ∑ (X − µ)Pr(X = x)
Although this rule clearly demonstrates how to obtain the variance, performing the cal-
culation is quite a lengthy process. Hence an alternative rule is used for calculating the
variance:
672 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

Var(X) = E(X − µ)2

= E(X2 − 2µX + µ2)
= E(X2) − E(2µX) + E(µ2)
= E(X2) − 2µE(X) + E(µ2)
= E(X2) − 2µ2 + µ2 since E(X) = µ (the mean)
= E(X2) − µ2
= E(X2) − [E(X)]2

WORKED Example 24
Find the expected value and variance of the following probability distribution table.
x 1 2 3 4 5
Pr(X = x) 0.15 0.12 0.24 0.37 0.12

THINK WRITE
1 Write the rule for the expected E(X) = ∑ xPr ( X = x )
value. alllx
2 Substitute the values into the rule. = 1 × 0.15 + 2 × 0.12 + 3 × 0.24 + 4 × 0.37 +
5 × 0.12
3 Evaluate. = 0.15 + 0.24 + 0.72 + 1.48 + 0.6
= 3.19
4 Calculate E(X2). E(X2) = ∑ x 2 Pr ( X = x )
alllx
= (12) × 0.15 + (22) × 0.12 + (32) × 0.24 +
(42) × 0.37 + (52) × 0.12
= 1 × 0.15 + 4 × 0.12 + 9 × 0.24 + 16 × 0.37 +
25 × 0.12
= 0.15 + 0.48 + 2.16 + 5.92 + 3
= 11.71
5 Calculate [E(X)]2. [E(X)]2 = 3.192
= 10.1761
6 Calculate Var(X) using the rule for Var(X) = E(X2) − [E(X)]2
variance. = 11.71 − 10.1761
= 1.5339

WORKED Example 25
Find the variance of 2Y + 1 for the following probability distribution table.
y 0 1 2 3
Pr(Y = y) 0.25 0.35 0.2 0.2

THINK WRITE

1 Write the rule for the expected E(2Y + 1) = ∑ ( 2y + 1 )Pr ( Y = y )

alllx
value.
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 673

THINK WRITE

2 Substitute the values into the = (2 × 0 + 1) × 0.25 + (2 × 1 + 1) × 0.35 +

rule. (2 × 2 + 1) × 0.2 + (2 × 3 + 1) × 0.2
3 Evaluate. = 1 × 0.25 + 3 × 0.35 + 5 × 0.2 + 7 × 0.2
= 0.25 + 1.05 + 1 + 1.4
= 3.7
4 Calculate [E(2Y + 1)]2. [E(2Y + 1)]2 = 3.72
= 13.69
5 Calculate E(2Y + 1)2. E(2Y + 1)2 = 12 × 0.25 + 32 × 0.35 + 52 × 0.2 + 72 × 0.2
= 0.25 + 3.15 + 5 + 9.8
= 18.2
6 Calculate Var(2Y + 1) using the Var(2Y + 1) = E(2Y + 1)2 − [E(2Y + 1)]2
rule. = 18.2 − 13.69
= 4.51

The variance of a linear function can also be calculated by the following rule:

Var (aX + b) = a2Var (X)

For worked example 25, given that Var(Y) = 1.1275, Var(2Y + 1) can be determined
using the above rule:
Var(2Y + 1) = 22Var(Y)
= 4 × 1.1275
= 4.51 as before.

WORKED Example 26
X is a discrete random variable with the following probability distribution.

x 3 4 6 k
Pr(X = x) 0.15 0.3 0.45 0.1
Find the value of k, a positive integer, if the variance is 1.7475.

THINK WRITE

1 Write the rule for the expected E(X) = ∑ x Pr ( X = x )

value. alllx

2 Substitute the values into the = 3 × 0.15 + 4 × 0.3 + 6 × 0.45 + k × 0.1

rule.
3 Evaluate. = 0.45 + 1.2 + 2.7 + 0.1k
= 4.35 + 0.1k
Continued over page
674 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

THINK WRITE

4 Calculate E(X2). E(X2) = ∑ x 2 Pr ( X = x )

alllx
= (32) × 0.15 + (42) × 0.3 + (62) × 0.45 + (k2) × 0.1
= 9 × 0.15 + 16 × 0.3 + 36 × 0.45 + k2 × 0.1
= 1.35 + 4.8 + 16.2 + 0.1k2
= 22.35 + 0.1k2
5
2
Calculate [E(X)] . [E(X)]2 = (4.35 + 0.1k)2
= 0.01k2 + 0.87k + 18.9225
6 Calculate Var(X) using the rule Var(X) = E(X2) − [E(X)]2
and equate it to the given value of 1.7475 = 22.35 + 0.1k2 − (0.01k2 + 0.87k + 18.9225)
the variance; that is, σ 2 = 1.7475. 1.7475 = 0.09k2 − 0.87k + 3.4275
7 Solve for k. 0.09k2 − 0.87k + 3.4275 − 1.7475 = 0
0.09k2 − 0.87k + 1.68 = 0
(9k − 24)(k − 7) = 0
k = ------ (or 2 --- ) or k = 7
24 2
9 3
8 Answer the question. k = 7. Reject the other value of k since the variable is
discrete.

Standard deviation
Another important measure of spread is the standard deviation. It is written as SD(X) or
denoted by the symbol σ (sigma). The standard deviation is the positive square root of
the variance. It is defined by the rule:
SD(X) = Var ( X )
= σ2
=σ
Variation and standard deviation are used extensively in many real-life applications
involving statistics.
Analysis of data would be useless without any information about the spread of the data.

WORKED Example 27
A random variable has the following probability distribution.
x 0 1 2 3
1 3 1 1
Pr(X = x) ---
4
---
8
---
8
---
4
Calculate the expected value, the variance and the standard deviation.
THINK WRITE

1 Calculate the expected value. E(X) = 0 × 1

--- +1× 3
--- +2× 1
--- +3× 1
---
4 8 8 4
=0+ 3
--- + 2
--- + 3
---
8 8 4
= 1 3---
8
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 675

THINK WRITE

2 Calculate [E(X)]2. [E(X)]2 = (1 3--- )2

8

= 1 57
------ (≈ 1.890 625)
64

3 Calculate E(X2). E(X2) = 02 × 1

--- + 12 × 3
--- + 22 × 1
--- + 32 × 1
---
4 8 8 4

=0+ 3
--- + 4
--- + 9
---
8 8 4

= 3 1---
8

4 Calculate Var(X). Var(X) = E(X2) − [E(X)]2

= 3 1--- − 1 57
------
8 64

= 1 15
------ (≈ 1.234375)
64

5 Calculate the standard SD(X) = 1.234 375

deviation.
6 Round the answer to 4 decimal = 1.1110
places.

WORKED Example 28
In order to encourage car pooling, a new toll is to be introduced on the Eastgate Bridge. If
the car has no passengers, a toll of $2 applies. Cars with one passenger pay a $1.50 toll,
cars with two passengers pay a $1 toll and cars with 3 or more passengers pay no toll.
Long-term statistics show that the number of passengers (X) follows the probability
distribution given below.

x (no. of passengers) 0 1 2 ≥3

Pr(X = x) 0.4 0.35 0.2 0.05

a Construct a probability distribution of the toll paid.

b Find the mean toll paid per car.
c Find the standard deviation of tolls paid.

THINK WRITE
a Construct a table of values of toll a Let Y = toll to be paid.
information.
Probabilities remain the same. y 2 1.5 1 0

Pr(Y = y) 0.4 0.35 0.2 0.05

Continued over page

676 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

THINK WRITE

b 1 Write the rule for the expected b E(Y) = ∑ y Pr ( Y = y )

allly
value.
2 Substitute the values into the = 2 × 0.4 + 1.5 × 0.35 + 1 × 0.2 + 0 × 0.05
rule.
3 Evaluate. = 0.8 + 0.525 + 0.2 + 0
= 1.525
4 Round the answer to 2 decimal = 1.53
places.
5 Answer the question. The mean toll is $1.53.
c 1 Calculate E(Y2). c E(Y2) = ∑ y 2 Pr (Y= y)
allly
= (2 ) × 0.4 + (1.52) × 0.35 + (12) × 0.2
2

= + (02) × 0.05
= 4 × 0.4 + 2.25 × 0.35 + 1 × 0.2 + 0
= 1.6 + 0.7875 + 0.2
= 2.5875
2 Calculate [E(Y)]2. [E(Y)]2 = 1.5252
= 2.325 625
3 Calculate Var(Y). Var(Y) = E(Y 2) − [E(Y)]2
= 2.5875 − 2.325 625
= 0.261 875
4 Calculate the standard deviation. SD(Y) = 0.261 875
5 Round the answer to 2 decimal = 0.51
places.
6 Answer the question. The standard deviation of tolls paid is $0.51.

WORKED Example 29
The table below represents the probability distribution of the number of accidents per
week in a factory.

x 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Pr(X = x) 0.02 0.22 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.07 0.13 0.03 0.05

Given that µ = 4.36 and σ = 2.105 find Pr(µ − 2σ ≤ X ≤ µ + 2σ).

THINK WRITE
1 Calculate µ − 2σ. µ − 2σ = 4.36 − 2 × 2.105
= 4.36 − 4.21
= 0.15
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 677

THINK WRITE

2 Calculate µ + 2σ. µ + 2σ = 4.36 + 2 × 2.105

= 4.36 + 4.21
= 8.57
3 Substitute the values obtained in Pr(µ − 2σ ≤ X ≤ µ + 2σ) = Pr(0.15 ≤ X ≤ 8.57)
steps 1 and 2 into the given = Pr(1 ≤ X ≤ 8)
interval. = Pr(X = 1) + Pr(X = 2) +
Since X represents discrete Pr(X = 3) + Pr(X = 4) +
values, Pr(0.15 ≤ X ≤ 8.57) Pr(X = 5) + Pr(X = 6) +
becomes Pr(1 ≤ X ≤ 8). Pr(X = 7) + Pr(X = 8)
Note: In this example,
= 1 − Pr(X = 9)
Pr(1 ≤ X ≤ 8) = 1 − Pr(X = 9).
= 1 − 0.05
= 0.95

Interpreting the standard deviation

A characteristic of many distributions is that approximately 95% of the spread or
distribution lies between 2 standard deviations of the mean; that is,

Pr(µ − 2σ ≤ X ≤ µ + 2σ) = 0.95

It is important to note that when calculating the Pr(µ − 2σ ≤ X ≤ µ + 2σ) for a

specific distribution an exact value of 0.95 will not always be achieved, but should be
close to it.

For many random variables, approximately 95% of the spread of the population
lies between 2 standard deviations of the mean, that is,

Pr(µ − 2σ ≤ X ≤ µ + 2σ) = 0.95.

This is also referred to as the 95% confidence interval.

WORKED Example 30
The probability distribution of X is given by the formula:
x2
Pr(X = x) = ------ where x = 2, 3, 4, 5.
54
Find:
a the probability distribution of X as a table
b the expected value of X
c the standard deviation of X
d Pr(µ − 2σ ≤ X ≤ µ + 2σ).
Continued over page
678 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

THINK WRITE
a 1 Substitute each of the x-values a When x = 2, p(x) = 4
------
54
into the equation and obtain the
corresponding probability. = 2
------
27

When x = 3, p(x) = 9
------
54

= 1
---
6

When x = 4, p(x) = 16
------
54

= 8
------
27

When x = 5, p(x) = 25
------
54

2 Enter the information into a table. x 2 3 4 5

Pr(X = x) 27
2
------
1
---
6
8
------
27
25
------
54

b Calculate the expected value. b E(X) = 2 × 2

------ +3× 1
--- +4× 8
------ +5× 25
------
27 6 27 54

= 4
------ + 3
--- + 32
------ + 125
---------
27 6 27 54

= 4 -----
4
- (≈ 4.1481)
27

c 1 Calculate [E(X)]2. c [E(X)]2 = (4 -----

4 2
-)
27

= 17 151
--------- (≈ 17.2071)
729

2 Calculate E(X2). E(X2) = 22 × 2

------ + 32 × 1
--- + 42 × 8
------ + 52 × 25
------
27 6 27 54

= 8
------ + 9
--- + 128
--------- + 625
---------
27 6 27 54

= 18 1--- (≈ 18.1111)
9

3 Calculate Var(X). Var(X) = E(X2) − [E(X)]2

= 18 1--- − 17 151
---------
9 729

= 659
--------- (≈ 0.9040)
729

4 Calculate the standard deviation. SD(X) = 0.9040

= 0.950 777 6039
5 Round the answer to 4 decimal = 0.9508
places.
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 679
THINK WRITE
d 1 Calculate µ − 2σ. d µ − 2σ = 4.1481 − 2 × 0.9508
= 4.1481 − 1.9016
= 2.2465
2 Calculate µ + 2σ. µ + 2σ = 4.1481 + 2 × 0.9508
= 4.1481 + 1.9016
= 6.0497
3 Substitute the values obtained in steps 1 Pr(µ − 2σ ≤ X ≤ µ + 2σ)
and 2 into the given interval. Since X = Pr(2.2465 ≤ X ≤ 6.0497)
represents discrete values, Pr(2.2465 ≤ = Pr(3 ≤ X ≤ 6)
X ≤ 6.0497) becomes Pr(3 ≤ X ≤ 6). = 1 − Pr(X = 2)
=1− 2
------
27

= 25
------ (≈ 0.926)
27

Career profile
K E L L I E WA L K E R D E N
as information technology problems and
overseeing general resourcing requirements.
In order to increase overall customer
satisfaction, acquisition and retention I design
and implement project-specific strategies,
work practices, procedures and incentives. By
designing and implementing branch specific
marketing plans we maximise revenue from
the existing customer base.
In this job I need to analyse and predict the
This text is not available expected
in this digital edition
number of call responses for different
mail-out types. I also calculate the average
length of each call in our call centre weighted
by the call type. This assists with future
Name: Kellie Walkerden
planning, particularly staffing requirements.
Profession: Customer Service Manager
My knowledge of fractions, percentages,
Qualifications: No formal qualifications
proportions and probability have certainly
Employer: United Customer Management
been put to use in my chosen career.
Solutions (South Melbourne)
Internet address: Questions
[Link] 1. How does Kellie’s analysis of call
responses assist in her role as a
Customer Service Manager?
As a Customer Service Manager, I spend time 2. What does United Customer Management
assessing the performance of the Call centre, Solutions do? Find out more by visiting the
planning and addressing different issues such company website.
680 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

remember
remember
1. The variance, Var(X) or σ 2 is defined by the rule:
Var(X) = E(X2) − [E(X)]2
2. The variance of a linear function can also be calculated by the following rule:
Var (aX + b) = a2Var (X).
3. The standard deviation, SD(X) or σ, is defined by the rule:
SD(X) = Var ( X )
= σ2
4. Approximately 95% of the spread of the population in many distributions lies
between 2 standard deviations of the mean; that is, Pr (µ − 2σ ≤ x ≤ µ + 2σ) = 0.95.
This is also referred to as the 95% confidence interval.

Variance and standard

13D deviation of discrete
random distributions
WORKED 1 Find the expected value and variance of the following probability distribution table.
Example
24 x 1 2 3 4
Pr(X = x) 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1
2 A random variable has the following probability distribution.
x −1 0 1 2 3
Pr(X = x) 0.2 0.17 0.1 0.3 0.23
Find:
a the expected value, E(X)
b the variance of X, Var(X).
3 A random variable has the following probability distribution.
x 2 4 6 8
Pr(X = x) 1
---
8
3
------
16
9
------
16
1
---
8
Find:
a the expected value, E(X)
b the variance of X, Var(X).
4 The cost of a loaf of bread is known to vary on any day according to the following
probability distribution.
y $1.20 $1.25 $1.30 $1.35 $1.60
Pr(Y = y) 0.05 0.2 0.1 0.25 0.4
Find:
a the expected cost of a loaf of bread
b the variance of the cost.
WORKED 5 Find the variance of 2Y − 1 for the following probability distribution table.
Example
25 y 0 1 2 3
Pr(Y = y) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 681
6 A random variable has the following probability distribution.
x 2 4 6 8
Pr(X = x) 0.15 0.3 0.42 0.13
Find:
a Var(X) b Var(2X) c Var(3X + 1) d Var(−5X + 7).
7 A random variable has the following probability distribution.
x 0 1 3 5 7
Pr(X = x) 0.27 0.15 0.13 0.1 0.35
Find:
a Var(X) b Var(3X) c Var(10X − 5) d Var(5X − 2).
WORKED 8 Let X be a discrete random variable with the following probability distribution.
Example
26 x 2 4 6 k
Pr(X = x) 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.1
Find the value of k, a positive integer, if the variance is 5.8.
9 Let X be a discrete random variable with the following probability distribution.
x 1 k 7 10
Pr(X = x) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
Find the value of k, a positive integer, if the variance is 7.96.
WORKED 10 A random variable has the following probability distribution.
Example
27 x 1 2 3 4
Pr(X = x) 1
---
4
1
---
3
1
---
4
1
---
6

Calculate the expected value, the variance and the standard deviation.
11 A random variable has the following probability distribution.
x 6 7 10 12
Pr(X = x) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Find:
a the expected value, E(X)
b the variance of X, Var(X)
c the standard deviation of X, SD(X).
12 A random variable has the following probability distribution.
x 3 5 8 11
Pr(X = x) 1
---
5
1
------
10
1
---
4
9
------
20

Find:
a the expected value, E(X)
b the variance of X, Var(X)
c the standard deviation of X, SD(X).
682 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

13 For a random variable, X, E(X) = 12 and E(X2) = 340.

Find the standard deviation of X.

14 For a random variable, X, E(X) = 20 and E(X2) = 529.

Find the standard deviation of X.

15 For a random variable, X, E(X) = 13 and E(X2) = 481.

Find the standard deviation of X.

WORKED 16 In order to encourage car pooling, a new toll is to be

Example
28
introduced on the International Gateway. If the car has
no passengers, a toll of $2 applies. Cars with one pas-
senger pay a $1.50 toll, cars with two passengers pay a
$1 toll and cars with 3 or more passengers pay no toll.
Long-term statistics show that the number of passengers
follows the probability distribution given below.
x 0 1 2 ≥3
Pr(X = x) 0.5 0.3 0.15 0.05
a Construct a probability distribution of the toll paid.
b Find the mean toll paid per car.
c Find the standard deviation of tolls paid.
WORKED 17 The table below represents the probability distribution
Example
29
of the number of accidents per week in a factory.
x 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Pr(X = x) 0.03 0.21 0.16 0.18 0.14 0.07 0.15 0.01 0.05
Given that µ = 4.35 and σ = 2.08, find Pr(µ − 2σ ≤ X ≤ µ + 2σ).
x2
WORKED 18 The probability distribution of X is given by the formula, Pr(X = x) = ------ where
Example
x = 1, 3, 5. Find: 35
30
a the probability distribution of X as a table b the expected value of X
c the standard deviation of X d Pr(µ − 2σ ≤ X ≤ µ + 2σ).
x2 – 1
19 The probability distribution of X is given by the formula, Pr(X = x) = -------------- where
x = 2, 3, 4, 5. Find: 50
a the probability distribution of X as a table b the expected value of X
c the standard deviation of X d Pr(µ − 2σ ≤ X ≤ µ + 2σ).

20 A random variable has the following probability distribution.

x 1 2 3 4
Pr(X = x) 0.4 0.2 0.2 k
Find:
a the value of the constant k b the most likely value of X
c E(X), the mean of X d Var(X), the variance of X
e SD(X), the standard deviation of X f Pr(µ − 2σ ≤ X ≤ µ + 2σ).
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 683
21 Calculate the 95% confidence interval for random variables for which:
a µ = 4, σ = 2 b µ = 10, σ = 3 c µ = 35, σ = 7
d µ = 21.6, σ = 5.2 e µ = 9.7, σ = 0.7 f µ = 17 --1- , σ = 2 --1- .
2 3
22 A recent survey completed on the number of people, N, living in each of 12 houses in
a certain court showed the following.
n 1 2 3 4 5
Pr(N = n) 0.0833 0.2500 0.3333 0.2500 0.0833
Find:
a µ, the mean number of people per house
b σ 2, the variance
c σ, the standard deviation
d the 95% confidence interval for n.
23 Two fair dice are rolled and the outcomes are noted. If X represents the sum of the two
numbers showing, find:
a the expected value of X b the variance of X
c Pr(µ − 2σ ≤ X ≤ µ + 2σ).
24 For the spinner shown, X represents the number obtained. 2 3
Find:
1 4
a the probability distribution of X
b the expected value of X
1 2
c the standard deviation of X
d the probability that the number is 4, given that it is not 1. 2 3

25 multiple choice
The following table represents a discrete probability distribution for a random
variable, X.
x 0 1 2 3
Pr(X = x) k 2k 3k 4k
The standard deviation of x is:
A 1.0 B 1.2 C 1.8 D 2.0 E 2.2

Questions 26 and 27 refer to the following information. The probability distribution of

X is given in the table below.
x 0 3 6 9
Pr(X = x) 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2

26 multiple choice
The variance and standard deviation of X, respectively, are:
A 3.9, 15.21 B 26.1, 3.3 C 26.1, 3.9 D 26.1, 5.11 E 11.61, 3.41
27 multiple choice
Var (6X − 3) is equal to:
A 91.26 B 541.56 C 417.96 D 939.6 E 140.4
684 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

summary
Probability revision
• Outcomes are results of experiments.
• The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment is called the sample space and is
denoted by ε, and each possible outcome is called a sample point.
• A subset of the sample space is known as an event.
• The union (symbol ∪) of two events A and B implies a combined event, that is,
either event A or event B or both occurring. Common elements are written only
once.
• The intersection (symbol ∩) of two events A and B is represented by the common
sample points of the two events.
• Venn diagrams involve drawing a rectangle that represents the sample space and a
series of circles that represent subsets of the sample space. They provide a visual
representation of the information at hand and clearly display the relationships
between sets.
• The probability of an event occurring is defined by the rule

Number of favourable ˙ outcomes

Pr ( A ) = ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- .
Total number of possible outcomes
• The probability of an event occurring lies within the restricted interval
0 ≤ Pr(A) ≤ 1.
• The individual probabilities of a particular experiment will sum to 1; that is,
Σ p(x) = 1.
• The addition rule of probability is defined by the rule
Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) − Pr (A ∩ B).
• If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, then Pr(A ∩ B) = 0 and therefore the
addition rule becomes Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B).
• If two events A and B are independent, then Pr (A ∩ B) = Pr(A) × Pr(B).
• Karnaugh maps and probability tables summarise all combinations of two events
(for example A and B) and their complements (for example A′ and B′).
Pr ( A ∩ B )
• Conditional probability is defined by the rule Pr(AB) = ------------------------- , where
Pr ( B )
Pr(B) ≠ 0. This can be transposed to Pr(A ∩ B) = Pr (AB) × Pr(B).
• Tree diagrams are useful tools in solving probability tasks as they display each of
the possible outcomes along with their respective probabilities.
• A combination is defined by nCr , that is, the number of selections of n different
objects taken r at a time.

Discrete random variables

• A random variable is one whose value is determined by the outcome of an
experiment.
• Discrete random variables generally deal with number or size and are able to be
counted.
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 685
• Two important characteristics satisfy all discrete probability distributions:
1. Each probability lies in a restricted interval 0 ≤ Pr(X = x) ≤ 1.
2. The probabilities of a particular experiment sum to 1; that is,

∑ Pr ( X = x ) = 1
If these two characteristics are not satisfied, then there is no discrete probability
distribution.

Expected value of discrete random distributions

• The expected value of a discrete random variable, X, is denoted by E(X) or the
symbol µ (mu). It is defined by the rule:
E(X) = ∑ x Pr ( X = x )
all x
• A fair game is one in which E(X) = 0.
• The expected value of a linear function can be calculated using the expectation
theorems:
E(aX) = aE(X)
E(aX + b) = aE(X) + b
E(b) = b
E(X + Y) = E(X) + E(Y)
Note: E(X2) ≠ [E(X)]2

Variance and standard deviation of discrete random distributions

• The variance is denoted by Var(X) or the symbol σ 2 (sigma squared).
• It is defined by the rule:
Var(X) = E(X2) − [E(X)]2.
• The variance of a linear function can also be calculated by the following rule:
Var(aX + b) = a2Var(X)
• The standard deviation is written as SD(X) or denoted by the symbol σ.
• It is defined by the rule:

SD(X) = Var ( X )

= σ2
• Approximately 95% of the spread of the population in many distributions lies
between 2 standard deviations of the mean, that is,
Pr(µ − 2σ ≤ X ≤ µ + 2σ) = 0.95
This is also referred to as the 95% confidence interval.
 686 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

CHAPTER
review
Multiple choice
1 If Pr(A) = 0.65, Pr(B) = 0.37 and Pr (A ∩ B) = 0.28, then Pr(A ∪ B) is equal to:
13A A 0.93 B 0.56 C 0.09 D 0.74 E 1.02

2 If Pr(A) = 0.47, Pr(B) = 0.27 and Pr (A ∩ B) = 0.19, then Pr(AB) is equal to:
13A A 0.57 B 0.40 C 0.70 D 0.43 E 0.30

3 The probability that Fiona attends an aerobics class is 0.60, and the probability that Kath
13A attends an aerobics class is 0.85. If these two events are independent, the probability of one
of these two people attending an aerobics class is:
A 0.60 B 0.85 C 0.51 D 0.34 E 0.43

4 Which of the following random variables is discrete:

13B A The number of runs scored by Sir Donald Bradman in his cricketing career?
B The weight of people in an elevator?
C The life span of a fly?
D The volume, in litres, of water in the Yarra River?
E The time, in hours, for a student to complete a Mathematical Methods test?

5 Which of the following does not represent a probability distribution?

13B
A x 2 4 6 8 10
Pr(X = x) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1

B x 1 2 3 4 5
Pr(X = x) 0.1 0.24 0.03 0.56 0.07

C x 3 6 9 12 15
Pr(X = x) 0.36 0.12 0.4 0.02 0.1

D x −4 −3 −1 1 1
Pr(X = x) −0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3

E x −7 −5 −3 −1 1
Pr(X = x) 0.09 0.12 0.41 0.18 0.2

6 X is a discrete random variable with the following probability distribution.

13B
x 0 1 2 3 4 5
Pr(X = x) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 687
The probability that the variable is an odd number, given that it is less than 4 is:
1 7 4 3 1
A --- B ------ C --- D --- E ---
2 10 5 7 3

7 The value of k for the following probability distribution is:

13B
x 1 2 3 4 5

Pr(X = x) 0.3 5k 0.2 3k 0.1

A 0.15 B 0.05 C 0.25 D 0.4 E 1

8 A die is biased so that Pr(X = 1) = Pr(X = 2) = 0.1 and Pr(X = 3) = Pr(X = 4) = Pr(X = 5) =
Pr(X = 6) = 0.2. A game is played where a player rolls the die. The player receives $5 if a 13C
number greater than 4 is obtained but must pay $2 if a number less than or equal to 4 comes
up. The expected result for the player for each roll is:
A a loss of 80c B a loss of $1.40 C a win of 80c
D a loss of $1.40 E a win of $1.20

9 Gertrude’s Gambling House offers patrons a card game which uses a deck comprising four
aces, three kings, two queens and one jack. A player draws a card at random. If a jack is 13C
drawn the player wins $5, while a queen results in a win of $2. However, if the player draws
an ace, a loss of $1 is incurred. On average, Gertrude’s Gambling House wins 40c each time
the game is played. If a king is drawn, a player must pay:
A $1.00 B $3.00 C $1.50 D $2.00 E $2.50

10 Sam’s chance of getting a bullseye while playing darts is 0.1 and his chance of missing the
board altogether is 0.2. Sam collects $2 for a bullseye or 20c for hitting any other part of the 13C
board. If the game is to be fair, missing the board altogether means Sam must pay:
A $1.70 B $2.70 C $2.20 D $1.50 E $1.85

11 The toll for a new freeway is $2 per car and 50c per occupant. Long-term surveys show that
X, the number of occupants per car, is distributed as follows. 13C
x 1 2 3 4 5

Pr(X = x) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1

The expected toll for each car is:
A $3.20 B $3 C $3.50 D $2.95 E $3.65

Questions 12 and 13 refer to the following probability distribution.

x 1 2 3 4 5

Pr(X = x) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1

12 E(X) is equal to:

A 2.5 B 3.1 C 5.2 D 2.4 E 2.6 13C
13 E(5X − 8) is equal to:
A 18 B 4.5 C 4 D 7.5 E 5 13C
 688 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

Questions 14, 15 and 16 refer to the following probability distribution.

x −2 −1 0 1 2
Pr(X = x) 0.1 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.3

14 E(X) is equal to:

13C A 1.2 B 0.5 C 1.4 D 1.5 E 0.3
15 Var(X) is equal to:
13D A 2 B 1.7 C 1.91 D 0.61 E 2.11
16 Var(3X + 2) is equal to:
13D A 8 B 17.19 C 7.73 D 15.3 E 2.7

17 Let X be a discrete random variable with the following probability distribution.

13D
x 3 6 9 12
Pr(X = x) 0.21 0.35 0.17 0.27
The mean and standard deviation are:
A µ = 6 and σ = 3.3 B µ = 7.5 and σ = 10.89
C µ = 7.6 and σ = 3.3 D µ = 7.5 and σ = 3.3
E µ = 6 and σ = 10.89
18 Let X be a random variable with the following probability distribution.
13D
x 1 2 3 4
Pr(X = x) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2
The 95% confidence interval for the discrete random variable X is:
A (1, 3) B (1, 4) C (2, 4) D (1, 2) E (2, 3)

Short answer
1 The Santaroos have 4 soccer teams, A, B, C and D, entered in the interschool
13A championships. Each team is entered in a separate division. The probability of each team
winning their particular final is given as follows:
Pr(Team A wins) = 0.35 Pr(Team B wins) = 0.4
Pr(Team C wins) = 0.45 Pr(Team D wins) = 0.3.
Find the probability that:
a none of the Santaroos teams win
b one of the Santaroos teams wins
c two of the Santaroos teams win
d three of the Santaroos teams win
e each of the Santaroos teams win their particular final.

2 Thirty students were required to complete a logic puzzle. The time taken to complete the
13B puzzle was recorded in the table below.
Time taken (whole number of minutes) 3 4 5 6 7
Number of students 4 8 10 2 6
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 689
For the information given:
a what proportion of students completed the puzzle in less than 5 minutes?
b what proportion of students took more than 5 minutes to complete the puzzle?
c calculate the mean time taken for students to complete the logic puzzle (correct to one
decimal place).
3 The probability distribution for the service time at a bakery is given below.
13B
Service time (whole number of minutes) 1 2 3 4 5
Probability 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1
a What is the probability that the service time for a customer is:
i 2 minutes?
ii 2 minutes or less?
iii more than 2 minutes?
iv not more than 4 minutes, given it is more than 1 minute?
b What is the expected value for the service time?
c If 50 customers were served at the bakery in a morning, how many of these would you
expect to take 4 minutes to be served?
x2
4 The probability distribution of X is given by the formula, Pr(X = x) = ------ , where x = 1, 2,
3, 4. Find: 30 13BCD
a the probability distribution of X as a table
b the expected value of X
c the standard deviation of X
d Pr(µ − 2σ ≤ X ≤ µ + 2σ).
5 A player rolls a fair die. If the player gets a 1 on the first roll, she rolls again and her score
is the sum of the two results, otherwise her score is the result of the first roll. The die cannot 13BC
be thrown more than twice. Find:
a the probability distribution
b the expected score
c Pr(X < µ).
6 A game is played where two dice are rolled and the sum of the two numbers showing
uppermost is recorded. If players get a sum of 7, they win $10. If they get a sum of 2 or 12, 13C
they win $5. For any other sum, they must pay $2.50. Is it a fair game?
7 A card game involves the selection of one card from a standard pack. If an ace is selected
the player wins $5, while a picture card results in a $2 win. How much should a player pay 13C
if any other card is selected in order for the game to be fair?
8 A game of ‘three-up’ is played where three coins are tossed simultaneously. A player must pay
$2 to play the game. If three heads come up, the player collects $6. 2 points
13C
If two heads come up, the player collects $3. Is it a fair game? 30 cm

9 Kylie is about to compete in her club’s archery finals. If she is

equally likely to hit any point on the board and never misses
5 points

10 cm
13C
the target, find: 11 points
a her expected score from
20 cm
i 1 shot at the target shown
ii 5 shots at the target shown
b her probability of getting five points on every one of her 5 shots.
 690 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

10 A door-to-door vacuum cleaner salesman has recorded his day-by-day sales figures over a
13C long period of time. He knows that his probabilities of selling X vacuum cleaners on any one
day follow the probability distribution shown in the table.
x 0 1 2 3 4 5 >5
Pr(X = x) 0.125 0.25 0.315 0.2 0.1 0.01 0
a Find the probability that he sells more than three vacuum cleaners on any one day.
b Find the number of vacuum cleaners he can expect to sell each day.
c If the salesman receives a commission of $20 per vacuum cleaner sold and a bonus of
$100 if he sells five or more vacuum cleaners on one day, find his expected daily
earnings from commissions and bonuses.
d Given that the salesman will sell at least two vacuum cleaners tomorrow, find the
probability that he will get his $100 bonus.
e What is the mode?
11 At Fast Eddy’s Drive-In Theatre the cost is $10 per car, plus $3 per occupant. The variable
13C,D X represents the number of people in any car and is known to follow the probability
distribution below.
x 2 3 4 5
Pr(X = x) 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1
Find:
a the expected cost per car
b Fast Eddy’s expected profit if 100 cars enter and costs for wages, electricity, etc. are $500
c the mode.
12 Let X be a discrete random variable with the following probability distribution.
13D x 1 3 5 n
Pr(X = x) 0.1 0.25 0.35 0.3
Find the value of n if the mean is 4.7.
13 Maria works at a car wash from 4.00 pm to 5.00 pm each afternoon after school, for which
13D she is paid $15 an hour. She knows that, on average, drivers give her a tip of 50c per car.
The number of cars through the car wash at this time each afternoon follows the probability
distribution below.
x 0 1 2 3 4 5
Pr(X = x) 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.05
Find:
a the amount of money Maria can expect to earn in tips each afternoon
b the total amount of money Maria can expect to earn each afternoon
c the total amount of money Maria can expect to earn each week.
14 Five thousand ‘scratch-and-match’ tickets are to be sold for $2 each. The tickets offer the
13D following prizes:
1 prize of $5000 2 prizes of $500 20 prizes of $50 100 prizes of $10.
Find:
a the expected loss per ticket
b the profit made by organisers, that is, the house
c the house percentage.
 Chapter 13 Discrete random variables 691
15 A raffle is to be drawn from 500 tickets. Each ticket was purchased for $1, with first prize
being $200, second prize $150 and third prize $100. Find: 13D
a the expected loss per ticket
b the profit made by organisers, that is, the house
c the house percentage.
16 A new toll system is used on the Eastgate Bridge, according to the number of passengers in
each car. If the car has no passengers, a toll of $1.50 applies. Cars with 1 passenger pay a $1 13D
toll, cars with 2 passengers pay a 50c toll and cars with 3 or more passengers pay no toll.
Statistics show that the number of passengers follows the following probability distribution.
x 0 1 2 ≥3
Pr(X = x) 0.3 0.3 0.25 0.15
a Construct a probability distribution for the toll paid.
b Find the mean toll paid per car.
c Find the standard deviation of tolls paid.
17 Let X be a discrete random variable with the following probability distribution.
13D
x 2 4 7 n
Pr(X = x) 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1
Find the value of n if the variance is 4.44 and n > 0.
x( x + 1)
18 Pr(X = x) = -------------------- for 0 ≤ x ≤ n
40 13D
a Find the value of n.
b Find the probability distribution for X as a table.
c Find the expected value of X.

Analysis
1 Bob’s Bakery makes four different types of doughnut, each at a different price, depending on
the ingredients used. A school canteen buys all its doughnuts from Bob and is currently
estimating budgets for the upcoming financial year. Types of doughnut and their prices are
listed below, along with their popularity (expressed as a probability).
Doughnut type Cost per box (2 dozen) Probability
1
Jam $14.40 ---
4
1
Iced $15.60 ---
4
3
Cinnamon $12.00 ------
10
1
Iced jam $18.00 ---
5
Find:
a the mean price per box
b the standard deviation per box
c the average price per doughnut.
The canteen wants to make a 14% profit on costs. Find:
d the cost of a doughnut at the canteen, if all doughnuts are to be sold for the same amount
e the average profit per box.
692 M a t h s Q u e s t F o u n d a t i o n Ye a r M a t h e m a t i c s

2 Amina plays roulette, a game where a wheel containing 37

3 26 0 32 15 1
slots numbered 0–36 is spun and the winning number is the 12
35 9
4

28
one in which a ball lodges when the wheel stops spinning.

21
7
Amina plays three different games:

2 2
1 9 22 18 29

5 17 34 6 27 1
a First she bets $20 on her favourite number coming up at
Casino-nominated odds of 35:1 against.
i How much would Amina collect if her number came up?

14 3
ii Find her expected win or loss for the game.

20

33
6
1
11
iii Is this game fair?
3 3
0 8 63
23 10 5 24 1
b In the second game Amina bets $20 on an even number
coming up at Casino-nominated odds of 1:1 (even money chance).
i How much would Amina collect if an even number came up?
ii Find her expected win or loss for the game.
iii Is this game fair?
c In game number three, Amina bets $20 on a line of 12; that is, if numbers 1–12 come up,
she wins. The casino-nominated odds for this game are 2:1 against.
i How much would Amina collect if one of her numbers came up?
ii Find her expected win or loss for the game.
iii Is this game fair?
d What is the house percentage for these games?

3 A door-to-door telecommunications representative has recorded her day-by-day sales figures

over a period of time. She knows that her probability of selling X packages on any one day
follows the probability distribution shown in the table.
x 0 1 2 3 4 5 >5
Pr(X = x) 2t2 3t 2t2 2t 4t2 + t t 0
a Find the value of t.
b Find the probability that she sells at least 2 packages on any one day.
c Find the probability that she sells at most 4 packages on any one day.
d Find the number of packages she can expect to sell each day.
e Calculate the Var(X) and standard deviation of X.
f Find Pr(µ − 2σ ≤ X ≤ µ + 2σ).
g If the representative receives a commission of $25 per package sold and a bonus of $200
if she sells 4 or more packages in one day, find her expected daily earnings from
commissions and bonuses.
h Given that the representative will sell at least two packages tomorrow, find the probability
that she will get her $200 bonus.