Inferential
Statistics
MATH 314 – Statistical Theory
Mr. John Laurence U. Candido
Recall
❑ Population
- Consists of an entire collection of events of
interest
❑ Samples
- a smaller part (or subset) of the population
Inferential Statistics
❑ are statistical procedures that use samples to
make generalizations about populations
❑ are extremely useful because they allow us to
draw conclusions about populations based on
limited information
❑ enables us to make estimates of population
values called parameters and to make
statements about computed statistics acceptable
to some degree of confidence
Hypothesis
❑ A research hypothesis is a statement that
predicts a relationship between variables. It is
usually formulated as a specific statement that
can be tested through research, and it is often
used in scientific research to guide the design of
experiments.
❑ a claim or statement about the population
parameter.
❑ It may or may not be true.
Types of Hypothesis
❑ Null Hypothesis (𝑯𝒐 )
- states that there is no difference between a
parameter and a specific value, or that there is
no difference between two parameters
❑ Alternative Hypothesis (𝑯𝒂 )
- states the existence of a difference between a
parameter and a specific value, or states that
there is a difference between two parameters.
Types of Hypothesis
Example 1:
A psychologist feels that playing soft music during a test
will change the results of the test. The psychologist is not sure
whether the grades will be higher or lower. In the past, the mean of
the scores was 73.
Null Hypothesis: The mean of the score of a test while playing soft
music is 73.
𝐻𝑜 : µ = 73
Alternative Hypothesis: The mean of the score of a test while
playing soft music is not equal to 73.
𝐻𝑎 : µ ≠73
Types of Hypothesis
Example 2:
A researcher thinks that if expectant mothers use vitamin
pills, the birth weight of the babies will increase. The average birth
weight of the population is 8.6 pounds.
Null Hypothesis: The average birth weight of babies whose
mothers takes vitamin pills is 8.6 pounds.
𝑯𝒐 : µ = 8.6
Alternative Hypothesis: The average birth weight of babies whose
mothers takes vitamin pills is 8.6 pounds.
𝑯𝒂 : µ > 8.6
Types of Hypothesis
Try this!
Write the null, and alternative hypothesis.
An engineer hypothesizes that the mean number
of defects can be decreased in a manufacturing process
of compact disks by using robots instead of humans for
certain tasks. The mean number of defective disks per
1000 is 18 with a confidence level of 90%.
𝐻𝑜 : 𝜇 = 18, 𝐻𝑎 : 𝜇 < 18
Types of Tests
❑ Non-Directional (≠)
▪ Two-Tailed Test – used when a treatment is
evaluated to see whether it has an impact in
either direction (to see if scores are higher or
lower)
❑ Directional (< ; >)
▪ One-Tailed Test – used when the intent is to
investigate only a single direction (only higher or
only lower)
Types of Tests
Example 1:
A psychologist feels that playing soft music during a test
will change the results of the test. The psychologist is not sure
whether the grades will be higher or lower. In the past, the mean of
the scores was 73.
Null Hypothesis: The mean of the score of a test while playing soft
music is 73.
𝐻𝑜 : µ = 73
Alternative Hypothesis: The mean of the score of a test while
playing soft music is not equal to 73.
𝐻𝑎 : µ ≠73
Types of Tests
Example 2:
A researcher thinks that if expectant mothers use vitamin
pills, the birth weight of the babies will increase. The average birth
weight of the population is 8.6 pounds.
Null Hypothesis: The average birth weight of babies whose
mothers takes vitamin pills is 8.6 pounds.
𝑯𝒐 : µ = 8.6
Alternative Hypothesis: The average birth weight of babies whose
mothers takes vitamin pills is 8.6 pounds.
𝑯𝒂 : µ > 8.6
Types of Tests
Try this!
Determine whether it is a one-tailed or two-tailed.
An engineer hypothesizes that the mean number
of defects can be decreased in a manufacturing process
of compact disks by using robots instead of humans for
certain tasks. The mean number of defective disks per
1000 is 18 with a confidence level of 90%.
Types of Errors
❑ Type I Error
▪ Occurs if you reject the null hypothesis when it is
true.
❑ Type II Error
▪ Occurs if you do not reject the null hypothesis
when it is false.
𝐻𝑜 is true 𝐻𝑜 is false
Reject the 𝐻𝑜 Type I Error Correct Decision
Do not reject the 𝐻𝑜 Correct Decision Type II Error
Test of Significance
• A test of significance is a problem of deciding
between the null and the alternative hypotheses
on the basis of the information contained in a
random sample.
• The goal will be to reject 𝐻𝑜 in favor of 𝐻𝑎 ,
because the alternative is the hypothesis is that
the researcher believes to be true. If we are
successful in rejecting 𝐻𝑜 , we then declare the
results to be “significant”.
Level of Significance
The fixed probability of wrong elimination of null
hypothesis when in fact, it is true. The level of significance is stated
to be the probability of type I error and is preset by the researcher
with the outcomes of error.
The level of significance is denoted by the Greek
symbol α (alpha).
Alpha (α) Level of Significance
0.01 1%
0.05 5%
0.1 10%
Confidence Level
The probability with which the estimation of a
statistical parameter in a sample survey is also true for
the population.
Alpha (α) Level of Significance Confidence Level
0.01 1% 99%
0.05 5% 95%
0.1 10% 90%
p-value
Indicates the exact probability of obtaining the specific
results (or even more extreme) if the null hypothesis is true.
❑ Process of evaluating the p-value:
▪ If the p-value is less than or equal to .05 (alpha), the null
hypothesis is rejected
▪ If the p-value is greater than .05 (alpha), the null hypothesis
is not rejected
p – value (reported as “sig.” in SPSS Decision
If p ≤ .05 Reject the null hypothesis
If p > .05 Do not reject the null hypothesis
Summary of the Steps
in Hypothesis Testing
1. State the null and alternative hypotheses.
2. Decide on a level of significance, Determine the
direction of the test.
3. Decide on the type of data to be collected and choose
an appropriate test statistic and testing procedure.
4. State the decision rule.
5. Collect the data and do the test of significance.
6. Determine the p-value. If p-value is less than or equal
to alpha, reject 𝐻𝑜 .
7. Write the conclusion and interpret the results.
THANK YOU!
KEEP SAFE!
GOD BLESS!
HYPOTHESIS TESTING
FOR
ONE POPULATION CASE
Hypothesis Testing for
One Population Case
Steps in Hypothesis Testing Using Critical value
1. State the null and alternative hypotheses.
2. Decide on a level of significance, Determine the direction of the
test.
3. Decide on the type of data to be collected and choose an
appropriate test statistic and testing procedure.
4. State the decision rule.
5. Compute for the test statistic and compare with the critical
value.
6. State the decision base on the resulting computed value when
compared to the critical value.
7. Write the conclusion for the given problem.
Hypothesis Testing for
One Population Case
Summary of the Tests Concerning the Population Mean
Hypothesis Testing for
One Population Case
One Sample 𝒁-test
❑ A one-sample z-test is used to test whether a
population parameter is significantly different from
some hypothesized value assuming that the entries
are normally distributed and the variance is
known.
𝑿ഥ − 𝝁𝒐
𝒁𝒄 =
𝝈/ 𝒏
One Sample 𝒁-test
Example:
A random sample of 100 students enrolled in
Statistics under Professor J shows that the average
grade in the midterm examination is 85%. Professor J
claims that the average grade of the students in the
midterm examination is greater than 80% with
standard deviation of 16%. Is there an evidence to say
that the claim of the professor is correct at 5% level of
significance?
One Sample 𝒁-test
Solution:
1. 𝐻𝑜 : The average grade of Professor J’s students is equal to 80%
𝐻𝑜 : 𝜇 = 80%
𝐻𝑎 : The average grade of Professor J’s students is greater than 80%
𝐻𝑎 : 𝜇 > 80%
2. 𝛼 = 0.05, right tailed test
ഥ −𝝁𝒐
𝑿
3. 𝑍c = ,𝑍 = 1.645
𝝈/ 𝒏 0.05
One Sample 𝒁-test
Solution:
4. Reject 𝐻𝑜 , if 𝑍𝑐 > 𝑍𝛼 . Otherwise, we fail to reject the null hypothesis.
85−80
5. 𝑍𝑐 = = 3.125
16/ 100
6. Since 𝑍𝑐 = 3.125 > 𝑍0.05 = 1.645, reject the null hypothesis in favor of
the alternative hypothesis.
7. Thus we conclude that the claim of professor J the average grade of
his students is greater than 80% at 5% level of significance.
Hypothesis Testing for
One Population Case
One Sample 𝒕-test
❑ A one-sample t-test is used to test whether a
population parameter is significantly different from
some hypothesized value assuming that the entries
are normally distributed and the variance is
unknown.
ഥ − 𝝁𝒐
𝑿
𝒕𝒄 =
𝒔/ 𝒏
One Sample 𝑡-test
Example:
A random sample of 25 female high school
students shows that their average body mass index
(BMI) is about 18 points with a standard deviation of
4.5 points. Test the hypothesis that the average BMI of
the female high school students is lower than 19 points
at 5% level of significance.
One Sample 𝑡-test
Solution:
1. 𝐻𝑂 : The average BMI of the female high school students is equal to 19
points.
𝐻𝑜 : 𝜇 = 19
𝐻𝑎 : The average BMI of the female high school students is lower than
19 points.
𝐻𝑎 : 𝜇 < 19
2. 𝛼 = 0.05, left tailed test
ഥ −𝝁𝒐
𝑿
3. 𝑡c = ,𝑡 = 1.711
𝒔/ 𝒏 (0.05, 24)
One Sample 𝑡-test
Solution:
4. Reject 𝐻𝑜 , if 𝑡𝑐 < −𝑡(0.05,24) . Otherwise, we fail to reject the null
hypothesis.
18−19
5.𝑡𝑐 = = −1.11
4.5/ 25
6. Since 𝑡𝑐 = −1.11 > −𝑡 0.05,24 = −1.711, We fail to reject the null
hypothesis
7. Thus we conclude that the average BMI of the female high school
students is about 19 points.
Example:
The mean weight of the sample of 100 persons
from the Honolulu Heart Study is 63 kg. If the ideal
weight is known to be 60 kg, is the group significantly
overweight? Assume 𝜎=10𝑘𝑔 and 𝛼=0.05
Solution:
1. 𝐻𝑂 : The mean weight of the sample of 100 persons from the Honolulu
Heart Study is equal to 60kg.
𝐻𝑜 : 𝜇 = 60kg
𝐻𝑎 : The mean weight of the sample of 100 persons from the Honolulu
Heart Study is greater than 60kg.
𝐻𝑎 : 𝜇 > 60kg
2. 𝛼 = 0.05, right tailed test
ഥ −𝝁𝒐
𝑿
3. 𝑍c = ,𝑍 = 1.645
𝝈/ 𝒏 0.05
4. Reject 𝐻𝑜 , if 𝑍𝑐 > 𝑍𝛼 . Otherwise, we fail to reject the null hypothesis.
Solution:
63−60
5.𝑍𝑐 = =3
10/ 100
6. Since 𝑍𝑐 = 3 > 𝑍0.05 = 1.645, reject the null hypothesis in favor of the
alternative hypothesis
7. Thus we conclude that the mean weight of the sample of 100 persons
from the Honolulu Heart Study is greater than 60kg at 5% level of
significance.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH!
KEEP SAFE!
GOD BLESS!