Unit-1 : Probability

[Link] the terms:

(i) Sample space and sample point (ii) Mutually exclusive events (iii) Classical
definition of probability

2. Define Axiomatic definition of probability. Show that (i) p ( )  0 (ii) p( A)  1  p( A)

3. Show that (i) p( A  B)  p( A)  P( A  B) (ii) p( A  B)  p( B)  P( A  B)

4. If B  A then show that (i) p ( A  B )  p ( A)  P( B) (ii) p( B)  p( A)

5. State and prove addition theorem for two events

6. Assume that in a nuclear accident 30% of the workers are exposed to LD50 and die; 40% of
the workers die; and 68% are exposed to LD50 or die. What is the probability that a randomly
selected worker is exposed to the LD50 ? Use a Venn diagram to find the probability that a
randomly selected worker is exposed to the LD50 but does not die. Find the probability that a
randomly selected worker is not exposed to the LD50 but dies.

7. Assume that the engine component of a spacecraft consists of two engines in parallel. If the
main engine is 95% reliable, the backup is 80% reliable and the engine component as a whole
is 99% reliable, what is the probability that both engines will be operable? Use a Venn diagram
to find the probability that the main engine will be fail but backup will be operable. Find the
probability that the backup engine will fail but the main engine will be operable. What is the
probability that the engine component will fail?

8. Assume that in a particular military exercise involving two units, Red and Blue, there is a
60% chance that the Red unit will successfully meet its objectives and a 70% chance that the
blue unit will do so. There is an 18% chance that only the Red unit will be successful.
What is the probability that both units will meet their objectives?
What is the probability that only blue unit will meet the objectives?
What is the probability that red or blue unit will meet the objectives?

9. When a computer goes down, there is a 75%chance that it is due to an overload and a 15%
chance that is due to software problem. There is an 85% chance that it is due to an overload or
a software problem. What is the probability that both of these problems are at fault? What is
the probability that there is a software problem but no overload?

10. Define Conditional probability. State and prove multiplication rule.

11. In studying the causes of power failures, these data have been gathered: 5% are due to
transformer damage, 80% are due to line damage, 1% involves both problems. Based on these
percentages, approximate the probability that a given power failure involves
(i) Line damage given that there is a transformer damage
(ii) Transformer damage given that there is line damage
(iii) Transformer damage but not line damage
(iv) Transformer damage given that there is no line damage
 (v) Transformer damage or line damage

12. In a study of waters near power plants and other industrial plants that release waste water
into the water system it was found that 5% showed signs of chemical and thermal pollution,
40% showed signs of chemical pollution, and 35% showed evidence of thermal pollution.
Assume that the results of the study accurately reflect the general situation. What is the
probability that a stream that shows some thermal pollution will also show signs of chemical
pollution? What is the probability that a stream showing chemical pollution will not show signs
of thermal pollution?

13. Assume that in a nuclear accident 30% of the workers are exposed to LD50 and die; 40%
of the workers die; and 68% are exposed to LD50 or die. What is the probability that a randomly
selected worker is exposed to the LD50 ? Use a Venn diagram to find the probability that a
randomly selected worker is exposed to the LD50 but does not die. Find the probability that a
randomly selected worker is not exposed to the LD50 but dies. (i) What is the probability that
a randomly selected worker will die given that he exposed to LD50 (ii) what is the probability
that a randomly selected worker will not die given that he is exposed to LD50 ? (iii) What is the
probability that a randomly selected worker will die given that he is not exposed to the LD50 ?

14. Define the Independence of two events. Consider the experiment of drawing a card from a
well-shuffled deck of 52 cards. The event A denote drawing a spade card and the event B
denote an honor (10, J, Q, K, A). Are the events A and B are independent.

15. Let A and B be events such that p( A)  0.5 , p( B)  0.7 what must be p( A  B) equal for
A and B to be independent?

16. Let A and B be events such that p( A)  0.6 , p( B)  0.4 and p( A  B)  0.8 . Are A and B
to be independent?

17. The probability that a unit of blood was donated by a paid donor is 0.67. If the donor was
paid, the probability of contracting serum hepatitis from the unit is 0.0144. If the donor was
not paid this probability is 0.0012. A patient receives a unit of blood. What is the probability
of the patient’s contracting serum hepatitis from this source?

18. Assume that there is a 50% chance of hard drive damage if a power line to which a computer
is connected is hit during an electrical storm. There is a 5% chance that an electrical storm will
occur on any given summer day in a given area. If there is a 0.1% chance that the line will be
hit during a storm, what is the probability that the line will be hit and there will be hard drive
damage during the next electrical storm in this area?

19. A foundry is producing cast iron parts to be used in the automatic transmissions of trucks.
There are two crucial dimensions to the part, A and B. Assume that if the part meets
specifications on dimension A then there is a 98% chance that it will also meet specifications
on dimension B. There is a 95% chance that it will also meet specifications on dimension A
and a 97% chance that it will meet specifications on dimension B. A part is randomly selected
and inspected. What is the probability that it will meet specifications on both dimensions?
20. The use of plant appearance in prospecting for ore deposits is called geobotanical
prospecting. One indicator of copper is a small mint with a mauve-colored flower. Suppose
that, for a given region, there is a 30% chance that the soil has a high copper content and 23%
chance that the mint will be present there. If the copper content is high, there is a 70% chance
that the mint will be present.
(i) Find the probability that the copper content will be high and the mint will be present
(ii) Find the probability that the copper content will be high given that the mint is
present.

Problems on Bayes theorem:

21. The blood type distributions in the United States are 41% of type A, 9% of type B, 4% of
type AB and 46% of type O. It is estimated that during World War-II, 4% of inductees with
type O blood were typed as A; 88% of those with type A were correctly typed; 4% with type
B blood were typed as A; 10% with type AB were typed as A. A soldier was wounded and
brought to surgery. He was typed as having type A blood. What is the probability that I his true
blood type?

22. A computer center has three printers A, B, and C, which print at different speeds. Programs
are routed to the first available printer. The probability that a program is routed to printers A,
B and C are 0.6, 0.3 and 0.1 respectively. Occasionally a printer will jam and destroy the
printout. The probability that printers A, B and C will jam are 0.01, 0.05 and 0.04 respectively.
Your program is destroyed when a printer jams. What is the probability that printer A is
involved? Printer B involved? Printer C involved?

[Link] a bolt factory machines M1 , M 2 , M 3 manufacture 25%, 35% and 40% of the total. Of
their output 5%, 4% and 2% are defective bolts. A bolt is drawn at random from the product
and is found to be defective. What are the probabilities that it was manufactured by machines
A, B, C ?

24. A manufacturer firm produces steel pipes in three plants with daily production figure of
500,1000 and 2000 units respectively. According to past experience it is known that fraction
of defectives by these plants are respectively 3%, 7% and 5% respectively. If a pipe is selected
from day’s production and found to be defective, find out the probability that it came from
(i) Plant I (ii) Plant II.

25. Companies P,Q,R produce 30%,45% and 25% of the computer chips respectively. It is
known that 2%,3% and 1% of the computer chips produced from P,Q,R are defective.
(a) what is the probability that the chip purchased is defective?
(b) If car purchased is defective what is the probability that this car is produced by company
Q?

26. Define a discrete random variable and discrete density function? State necessary and
sufficient conditions for a function to be a discrete density.

27. Define distribution function or cumulative distribution in discrete case and its properties?
28. Let density for X , the number of grafts that fail in a series of five trials, is given the
following table:
x 0 1 2 3 4 5
p( x ) 0.7 0.2 0.05 0.03 0.01 p(5)

(i) Find p(5)

(ii) Find the table for F
(iii) Use F to find the probability that at most three grafts fail; that at least two grafts
fail.
(iv) Use F to verify the probability of exactly three failures is 0.03.

29. Let X denote, the number of holes that for can be drilled per bit. The density for X is
given the following table:
x 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
p( x ) 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.07 p(8)

(i) Find p(8)

(ii) Find the table for F
(iii) Use F to find the probability that a randomly selected bit can be used to drill
between three and five holes inclusive.
(iv) Find p ( X  4) and p ( X  4) . Are these probabilities the same?

30. Let X denote, the number of attempts that must be made to gain access to the computer.
The distribution function of X is given the following table:
x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
F ( x) 0.05 0.15 0.35 0.65 0.85 0.95 1.00

(i) Find the probability density function

(ii) Find probabilities for at most three attempts and at least three attempts to gain access
to the computer

31. (i) Define expectation and variance of a discrete random variable. (ii) A drug is used to
maintain a steady heart rate in patients who have suffered a mild heart attack. Let X denotes
the number of heart beats per minute obtained per patient
x 40 60 68 70 72 80 100
p( x ) 0.01 0.04 0.05 0.80 0.05 0.04 0.01

Find the average heart beat of the patients and also find the variance of heart beats

32. Let X and Y be the independent random variables with E ( X )  3 , E (Y )  10 E ( X 2 )  25

, E (Y 2 )  164 then find

E (3 X  Y  8),
E (2 X  3Y  7),
V ( X )andV (Y ),
V (3 X  Y  8),
V (2 X  3Y  7)
33. a) A random variable X is defined as the maximum of the two numbers on the faces when
two dice are thrown. Find the mean and variance.

b) A continuous random variable X has the probability density function,

cx(2  x), if 0  x  2
f ( x)  
0, otherwise Where C is a constant.

Find mean and variance.

34. . (a) Let X denote the minimum of two numbers that appear when a pair of fair dice is
thrown once. Determine
i) Probability distribution ii) Expectation iii) Variance
x
(b) If p.d.f of a random variable is f ( x)  ce ,   x   . Find i) c value
ii) mean iii) variance.