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Table of Content
1. Introduction…………………………………………………. 2
2. RSI , MFI and MACD……...………………………………...5
3. Trend Analysis…………….………………………………….8
4. Bolinger Band & Moving Average………………………….11
5. Key Candles, Support & Resistance…………………...13
6. Fundamental Issue………………………………….……….15
7. Conclusion……………………………………………………15
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Technical Analysis of Progressive Life Insurance
Company Ltd. & Provati Insurance Company Ltd
[Link]
❖ 1.1 Definition of Technical Analysis:
Technical analysis is a method used to evaluate and predict the
future price movements of financial assets—such as stocks,
currencies, or commodities—by studying historical market data,
particularly price and trading volume. Unlike fundamental analysis,
which focuses on a company’s financial health, earnings, and
economic indicators, technical analysis centers on what is happening
in the market rather than why it is happening.
It relies on the idea that all relevant information is already reflected
in the asset's price and that prices tend to move in identifiable trends
and patterns over time. Analysts use various tools such as price
charts, trend lines, and technical indicators like Moving Averages,
Relative Strength Index (RSI), and MACD to recognize trading
signals and potential market reversals.
The underlying principle of technical analysis is that market
behavior repeats itself, often in predictable patterns, due to collective
investor psychology. This method is commonly used by traders and
investors for short- to medium-term decision-making in highly liquid
markets.
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❖ 1.2 Purpose of Technical Analysis:
The purpose of technical analysis is to help traders and investors
make informed decisions about buying, selling, or holding financial
assets by analyzing historical price and volume data.
It aims to identify trends, patterns, and market signals that indicate
the likely future direction of an asset’s price. By studying charts and
using technical indicators, analysts seek to determine the optimal
entry and exit points for trades.
Technical analysis is particularly useful in short- to medium-term
trading, where understanding price momentum and market
psychology plays a critical role. Ultimately, its goal is to minimize
risk and maximize potential returns by anticipating market
movements based on past behavior.
❖ 1.3 Common Indicator of Technical Analysis:
Here are some of the most common indicators used in technical
analysis, each serving a specific purpose to help traders analyze price
trends, momentum, and market strength:
➢ Moving Averages (MA)
• Purpose: Smooth out price data to identify trends.
• Types:
[Link] Moving Average (SMA) – average over a fixed period.
[Link] Moving Average (EMA) – gives more weight to recent
prices.
• Usage: Helps determine trend direction and support/resistance
levels.
➢ Relative Strength Index (RSI)
• Purpose: Measures the speed and change of price movements.
• Range: 0 to 100
Above 70 = Overbought
Below 30 = Oversold
• Usage: Indicates potential reversal points or trend strength.
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➢ Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
• Purpose: Shows the relationship between two EMAs (typically 12-
day and 26-day).
• Components: MACD line, Signal line, Histogram
• Usage: Identifies trend changes and momentum.
➢ Bollinger Bands
• Purpose: Measures market volatility.
• Structure: A moving average with upper and lower bands (usually
±2 standard deviations).
• Usage: Price touching the bands may indicate overbought/oversold
conditions or breakout potential.
➢ Stochastic Oscillator
• Purpose: Compares a stock’s closing price to its price range over a
certain period.
• Range: 0 to 100
Above 80 = Overbought
Below 20 = Oversold
• Usage: Predicts trend reversals based on momentum.
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2. RSI , MFI , MACD
❖ 2.1Progressive Life Insurance Company Limited
(PLICL):
• RSI (Relative Strength Index):
RSI of 70 indicate overbought situation and 30 indicate oversold
situation. The RSI of Progressive Life Insurance Company Ltd is 46,
indicating neutral momentum with slight bearish pressure,
suggesting the stock is neither overbought nor oversold at present.
• MFI (Money Flow Index):
MFI of 80 indicate overbought situation and 20 indicate oversold
situation. . The MFI of Progressive Life Insurance Company Ltd is 78.42,
which is indicate overbought situation .In the month of February 2025,
MFI of the company was below 20. The jump in MFI from below 20 to
over 78 is a clear sign of increased investor interest and capital inflow into
Progressive Life Insurance Company.
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• MACD (Moving Average Convergence
Divergence) :
The MACD (12, 26, 9) indicator shows a MACD line value of 2.2980, a
signal line value of -2.4237, and a histogram reading of -[Link]
negative histogram suggests that the MACD line is currently below the
signal line, indicating bearish momentum.
❖ 2.2 Provati Insurance Company Limited:
• RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 33.48, indicating
that the stock is approaching oversold territory, but not quite there
yet.
Since RSI levels below 30 typically suggest an oversold condition, a
value of 33.48 means that the stock is experiencing weak
momentum, and bearish pressure may be present.
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However, it also implies a potential buying opportunity if the stock
finds support and reverses direction.
• MFI (Money Flow Index):
The MFI is close to the oversold threshold, but not quite there yet.
A value of 25.88 indicates weak money inflow, meaning more selling
pressure than buying interest currently. While, it is not officially
"oversold," it signals caution and suggests the stock may be nearing a
potential buying zone.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) :
The MACD indicator (12, 26, close 9) shows a MACD line of -0.2151, a
signal line of -0.9906, and a histogram value of -[Link] all
values are in negative territory, the MACD line is currently above the
signal line, indicating a bullish [Link] suggests that the recent
downward momentum is weakening, and a potential trend reversal may be
underway.
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3. Trend Analysis
❖ 3.1Progressive Life Insurance Company Limited
(PLICL):
• Daily, Weekly and Monthly Trend
Daily Trend
After reviewing the daily trend of PLICL from January to May 2025, it is
observed that the trend was initially downward. This was followed by an
upward movement, then a decline again. In the final phase, however, the
trend showed an upward trajectory.
Weekly Trend
After analyzing the weekly trend of PLICL from January to May 2025, it
is observed that the trend was initially downward. Gradually, it began to
move upward. In the middle phase, there was a slight downward
movement, but in the final phase, the trend turned upward again .
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Monthly Trend
After analyzing the monthly trend of PLICL from January to May 2025, it
is observed that the trend was initially downward. Gradually, it started to
move upward. At one point, the upward movement became significantly
strong. This was followed by a slight downward correction. In the final
phase, the trend has started to rise again.
❖ 3.2 Provati Insurance Company Limited:
• Daily, Weekly and Monthly Trend:
Daily Trend
After analyzing the daily trend of Provati Insurance Company Ltd. from
January to May 2025, it is observed that the company's trend showed both
upward and downward movements. However, the downward trend was
more dominant during the mid-period. In the final phase, the trend remains
downward.
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Weekly Trend
After analyzing the weekly trend of Provati Insurance Company Ltd. from
January to May 2025, it is observed that the company's trend showed both
upward and downward movements. However, the downward trend was
more dominant during the mid-period. In the final phase, the trend remains
downward.
Monthly Trend
After analyzing the monthly trend of Provati Insurance Company Ltd.
from January to May 2025, it is observed that the trend was mostly
downward. Although there was a brief upward movement in the middle, it
soon resumed its downward trajectory.
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4. Bollinger Band & Moving Average
❖ 4.1Progressive Life Insurance Company Limited
(PLICL):
• Bolinger Band:
• Moving Average:
➢ Findings:
✓ The stock showed high volatility during the rally, corrected
sharply, found support at the lower Bollinger Band, and is now
rebounding toward the middle band, suggesting a possible
reversal.
✓ The price crossed above the 60-day moving average after a
downtrend, indicating a potential bullish reversal or recovery.
Volume also increased, supporting possible upward momentum
continuation.
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❖ 4.2 Provati Insurance Company Limited:
• Bolinger Band:
• Moving Average:
➢ Findings:
✓ Price touched the lower band with increasing volume, suggesting
potential short-term reversal or bounce-back; overall trend still
remains bearish.
✓ The price trend of is downward with consistent lower highs; the
moving average confirms bearish momentum with limited signs of
reversal.
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[Link] Candles, Support and Resistance
❖5. 1Progressive Life Insurance Company Limited
(PLICL):
❖ Red Candel or Bearish Candel: A red candle in a candlestick chart
represents a decline in price during a specific time period.
❖ Green Candel or Bullish Candel: A green candle represents a price
increase over the time period.
❖ Support:
✓ Around 50: This level has acted as support multiple times, indicated
by the price bouncing up from this area.
✓ Around 30: The most recent low point indicates a potential support
level around this price.
• Resistance:
✓ Around 57: This level has also acted as a resistance point, with
prices failing to sustain a move above it.
✓ Around 50: The price has struggled to break above this level several
times, indicating a strong resistance zone.
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❖ 5.2 Provati Insurance Company Limited:
❖ Red Candel or Bearish Candel: A red candle in a candlestick chart
represents a decline in price during a specific time period.
❖ Green Candel or Bullish Candel: A green candle represents a price
increase over the time period.
❖ Support:
✓ Around 38: This level has acted as support multiple times, indicated
by the price bouncing up from this area.
✓ Around 27: The most recent low point indicates a potential support
level around this price.
• Resistance:
✓ Around 39: This level has also acted as a resistance point, with
prices failing to sustain a move above it.
✓ Around 30: The price has struggled to break above this level several
times, indicating a strong resistance zone.
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6. Fundamental Issue
Name of Iteams
Company Dividend
High Dividend Sales/ Debt- Return on
Cap/ Yield earning Equity and Earning Equity
Low growth Ratio Consistency.
Cap
PLICL High 10% (3.25%) 0 0.23 2685.19%
Cap
Provati Low 12.50% 0 0 11.42 12.19%
Insurance Cap
Company
Limited
[Link]
After carefully analyzing the financial statements of Progressive Life
Insurance Company and Provati Insurance Company, I have reached
the following conclusion:
✓ Progressive Life Insurance Company Limited (PLICL):
As of May 29, 2025, the latest available trading data indicates that
PLICL shares were priced at BDT 32.90, reflecting a 0.92% increase
over the previous day. The stock has experienced a significant
decline over the past year, with a 52-week range between BDT 30.50
and BDT 77.30. Financially, the company reported a net loss of
BDT 3.21 million over the trailing twelve months, resulting in a
negative earnings per share (EPS) of BDT -0.19. Given these factors,
investors might consider purchasing shares if the price approaches
the lower end of the 52-week range, around BDT 30–35, anticipating
a potential rebound. Conversely, if the stock price nears its recent
high of BDT 57.80 without significant improvements in financial
performance, it may be prudent to consider selling to capitalize on
potential gains.
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✓ Provati Insurance Company Limited (PROVATIINS):
As of May 29, 2025, PROVATIINS shares were trading at BDT
34.80, marking a 0.87% increase from the previous trading session.
The company's 52-week trading range is between BDT 24.70 and
BDT 61.30. With a positive EPS of BDT 2.20 and a price-to-
earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.50, the stock appears to be reasonably
valued. Additionally, a consistent dividend yield of approximately
3.55% strengthens its appeal for income-focused investors. Given
these metrics, investors might consider buying shares if the price
dips to the BDT 27–30 range, which is closer to the 52-week low. If
the stock price ascends towards the BDT 45–50 range, it could
present an opportunity to sell and realize gains, assuming no
significant changes in the company's financial outlook.
THE END