IPCC Chair Jim Skea at the opening of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

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Copenhagen, Denmark, 21 March 2024 Add a link
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Most scientists say passing 1.5C is inevitable. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
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Politics is getting in the way, new IPCC report says. We have the knowledge, money, technology
and affordable clean energy that we need to cut our carbon emissions in half by 2030. . . . 2
Promises without funding commitments do not constitute planning. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
The majority of carbon capture schemes have either failed entirely or captured much less CO2
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Excellencies, distinguished colleagues, ladies and gentlemen.
First, a thank you to our Danish hosts for their welcome and for inviting a scientific contribution to
the Copenhagen Climate Ministerial.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approved the final report of its Sixth Cycle,
the Synthesis Report, almost exactly a year ago in Interlaken Switzerland. As IPCC Chair for the
seventh assessment cycle I must stress that while the findings of that report stand the test of time,
our climate has moved on.
As confirmed by WMO, 2023 was the hottest year on record, with particularly startling extremes in
ocean temperatures. Extreme weather events and wildfires ceased to be just part of future projections.
They were evident on our television screens and, for far too many of us, were a present reality. And
sea levels continue to rise relentlessly with consequences for small island states and low-lying coastal
communities. And all this, as we have demonstrated, is down to more than a century of human
activities, including burning fossil fuels, and unequal and unsustainable patterns of energy and land
use.
Our latest report showed that with every increment of warming the world will become more and more
dangerous. Beyond 1.5°C warming,
Most scientists say passing 1.5C is inevitable.

we will see new risks will emerge associated with sea level rise, permafrost degradation, biodiversity
loss, water scarcity, more extreme weather, food insecurity.
But, on the policy front, obviously there are encouraging signs of progress. COP28 and the UAE Bad form to
consensus made a start on the challenge of transitioning away from fossil fuels, established a new start a para-
framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation and operationalised the loss and damage fund. graph with
“But”...
IPCC findings need to be interpreted in the light of all that’s happened in the last 12 months. And
that is what I’ll do in the next few minutes. I’ll do so with reference to the three goals of the Paris
Agreement and, indeed, the sessions at this Ministerial event.
First, on mitigation ambition and warming of 1.5°C. In IPCC we have been saying for more than five
years now that only immediate and deep emission reductions will allow global warming to be limited

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to 1.5°C. We can’t go on saying that forever. Indeed, the last UNEP Gap Report was entitled “broken
record”. I looked back at the media release on the Special Report on 1.5°C five years ago, I said that Add
“Limiting warming to 1.5ºC is possible within the laws of chemistry and physics”. I stand by that, link/reference
noting that this refers to a long-run average level of warming, not a single year like the one we have
just seen.
But it is clear what would need to happen. Once emitted, carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere for Paragraphs
centuries. It is the accumulation of emissions that matters. In the middle of the range of scenarios shoujld not
that we have assessed, GHG emissions peak before 2025, fall by 43 per cent by 2030, 60 per cent by start with
2035, 69 per cent by 2040 and reach net zero mid century. We can’t just pick a single year, we have to “But...”
follow the pathway. If we do not act now, we close the option of limiting warming to 1.5°C as we will
have used up the available carbon budget around the end of this decade, even with the current set of
nationally determined contributions.

Missing
figure A picture speaks 1000
words

And we have also shown that it is possible. In literally hundreds of pages we have set out specifically
what can be done in terms of energy supply, energy demand, transportation, agriculture, forestry and
other land use, through both technology and patterns of human behaviour. Most of these actions also
yield wider co-benefits. They can make positive contributions to the Sustainable Development Goals.
And we have the tools. We have shown that carbon pricing, regulations and other interventions have Politics is
already resulted in gigatonnes of avoided emissions. More can be achieved if policies and measures are getting in
scaled up and deployed more widely. the way, new
Second, let me turn to adaptation and resilience. Adaptation action has increased but progress is IPCC re-
uneven. We are not adapting fast enough. Most observed adaptation is fragmented, small in scale, port says.
incremental, sector-specific, and focused more on planning rather than implementation. Hard limits We have the
to adaptation, as well as soft limits caused by lack of resources and institutional capacity, are being knowledge,
reached in some sectors and regions. Maladaptation actions, which bring short-term gains but are money, tech-
detrimental in the long run, are also increasing and are disproportionately affecting vulnerable groups. nology and
The increasing gaps between adaptation action taken and what’s needed are largest among lower affordable
income populations. At the current rate of planning and implementation, adaptation gaps can only clean energy
continue to grow. that we need
to cut our
Third, on finance and means of implementation. There are manifest gaps between tracked climate carbon emis-
finance and what is needed to put us on low emissions and climate resilient development pathways. Only sions in half
between 4 and 8 per cent of tracked climate finance is allocated to adaptation and more than 90 percent by 2030.
of adaptation finance comes from public sources. Adaptation finance gaps constrain implementation
of adaptation options especially in developing countries. Increasing public and private finance flows Promises
by billions of dollars per year, increasing direct access to multilateral funds, strengthening project without
pipeline development and shifting finance from readiness activities to project implementation can funding
enhance adaptation. Projects that yield joint mitigation and adaptation benefits are a potential source commit-
of private finance. ments do
Meanwhile, though the gaps are narrower, tracked climate finance for mitigation is still a factor of not consti-
three to six below what would be required to put us on 1.5°C or 2°C pathways. The gaps are actually tute plan-
least for energy supply, notably electricity generation, but greater for energy efficiency, transport and ning.

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land-use measures. And for mitigation, reducing risks and leveraging private flows through public
guarantees, local capital market development, and building greater trust in international cooperation
processes all have role to play.
Now finally, what can be expected from IPCC during the Seventh assessment cycle which began eight
months ago? Due to our rigorous processes and scientific scrutiny, it will be some time before new
reports are available. The Panel met in January and thanks to our Turkish hosts agreed on the content
of our Programme of Work, though the detailed timeline needs further discussion.
By early 2027, we should release a Special Report on Cities and Climate Change. This work is already
underway. By the end of 2027, we should have a methodology report on carbon dioxide removal
technologies and carbon capture utilization and storage
The majority of carbon capture schemes have either failed entirely or captured much less CO2
than expected

which will inform the submission of national inventories. And during 2028, the Working Groups’
Co-Chairs hope to have finalized the three Working Group Reports. There will also be an update
and revision of Technical Guidelines on impacts and adaptation, last produced in 1994. Published
alongside the Working Group II report, and the updated guidelines will cover adaptation indicators,
metrics and methodologies. This may help underpin greater financial flows for adaptation.
To sum up, the scale and pace of climate change poses unprecedented challenges for humanity. But
IPCC’s recent work has shown that we have the means and the tools to address these challenges, if we
choose to use them. And just to say, the newly elected scientific leadership of IPCC stands ready to
play its part in supporting a move from problems to solutions, from analysis to action.
Thank you.