Safeti Training
Module 16 – Risk Data Input
V8.7
Contents
• Introduction to Risk Data Input
• Release Cases and Frequencies
• Weather Directions and Probabilities
• Population Sources
• Ignition Sources
• Risk Ranking Points
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Introduction to Risk Data Input
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Introduction: Risk Data Input
• Safeti requires the following Risk Inputs:
• Release cases & frequencies
• Weather probabilities
• Population
• Ignition sources
• Risk Ranking points
• Plant Boundary (optional)
• In Safeti it is also possible to enter the risk
specific models:
• Route
• Pipeline Risk
• In addition, there are many predefined risk input parameters such as event tree probabilities,
vulnerabilities, risk grid, etc. which can be modified
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Release Cases and Frequencies
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Release Case and Frequency
Additional Risk-specific inputs on Risk tab for each Scenario:
• Event frequency: How often an event is likely to happen
• Type of risk effects to model (Material Tab):
Toxic only; Flammable only; or Toxic and Flammable
• Non-ignition probabilities
• Immediate ignition probabilities
• Use event trees
• Specify directly
• Stationary – use material reactivity
• Transport (Road tanker/Tank wagon)
• UKOOA/CLA
• Delayed ignition probabilities
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Weather Directions and Probabilities
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Weather Directions and Probabilities
• The probability data for weather conditions and directions
are used in the risk calculations
• The program performs risk calculations for each weather
condition and wind direction, and applies the appropriate
probability for that combination of condition and direction
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Editing Weather Probabilities
• Weather probabilities are defined for each weather folder
and each weather condition in the Study Tree
• Safeti allows 4, 8, 12, 16 or 18 weather directions to be
specified
• The matrix of weather category and direction allows
specification of:
• relative physical condition probability
• relative directional probability
• The values can be normalised automatically
• 0 (or 360) degrees represents wind from North
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Population Sources
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Population Sources
• Population sources data is used for the Societal Risk
calculations
• Populations are entered on the Risk tab of the study tree
in Population Folders:
• Categories can be used for different population sources
• Can supply Population number or density
• Indoor or Outdoor (affects vulnerability)
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Population Shapes
• Population locations are directly put on the Map
• A variety of shapes can be inserted:
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Population Categories
• You can choose a category for each population source in
Safeti
• You can change the colour and pattern for any Category,
and change the list of categories, adding, renaming or
deleting categories
• Safeti will calculate the societal risk results separately for
the populations within each Category, and report the
Category PLL risk results for each population Category
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Ignition Sources
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Ignition Sources
• Ignition sources are entered on the Risk tab of the study tree in Ignition
Folders
• Used in calculating delayed ignition probability and location
• Delayed Ignition sources are directly added on the Map
• A variety of ignition sources can be inserted for:
• General ignition sources
• Electrical sources of ignition
• Traffic/Transportation
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Ignition
• For general and electrical ignition sources provide:
• Ignition probability
• In time period
• Operating probability
• For transportation sources provide:
• Ignition probability
• In time period
• Traffic density (vehicles/hr)
• Average speed
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Ignition
• Delayed ignition probability due to each source is then calculated based on:
• Presence factor (fi)
• Ignition effectiveness factor (ωi)
• In time period (t)
𝑃𝑖,𝑡 = 1 − 𝑒 −𝑓𝑖𝜔𝑖𝑡
• Graph shows fi = 0.8 and 1, Pi,t = 0.5 in 30 seconds
• Curve gives ii = 0.0228 for the probability after 1 second, and ωi = 0.0231.
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Risk Ranking Points
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Risk Ranking Points
• Risk Ranking points (RRP), are entered on the Risk tab
of the study tree
• Located directly on the map
• Generates Individual Risk Ranking results which
contain detailed break down of risk contributors to that
location
• Any number of points can be used
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Risk Ranking Points: Results
• When using Risk Ranking Points, Safeti will generate
Individual Risk Grid results which contains a detailed
breakdown of risk contributors to that location
• More details about Risk Ranking Grid will be provided in
the “Risk Results” module
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Safeti Training
V8.7
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