Safeti Training
Module 20 – Risk Results
V8.7
Contents
• Combination Factors
• Individual Risk Results
• Societal Risk results
• Risk Results Wizard and Results Selections
• Risk Results Analysis
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Combination Factors
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Combination Factors
• Combination factors are used to combine the risk results from different Run Rows to obtain total
risk results for all times, effect types, locations etc.
• Located in the Combinations tab
• Can use up to 20 combinations
• Combinations can be renamed or duplicated
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Individual Risk Results
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Individual Risk Results in Safeti
• Individual risk results
available:
• Individual risk contours:
• Multi-Row
• Multi-Level
• Multi-Vulnerability
• Individual risk tables:
• Individual Risk Ranking With Detailed Calculations
Grid
• Individual Risk Ranking
Details
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With Default Calculation
Individual Risk Contours
• Individual risk contours show the likelihood of fatality at every geographical position in the
analysed area
• Individual risk contours show the likelihood of fatality at every geographical position in the
analysed area
• It is location-specific and assumes a
24/7 presence for a full year
• Individual Risk Contours available:
• Multi-Row
• Multi-Level
• Multi-Vulnerability
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Individual Risk Contours: Multi-Row
• Multi-Row:
• Multiple Run Rows/Combinations – Single Risk
Level – Single Vulnerability type
• The Risk results Wizard will help the user
choose the correct inputs for the results:
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Individual Risk Contours: Multi-Level
• Multi-Level:
• Multiple Risk Levels – Single Run
Row/Combination – Single Vulnerability type
• The Risk results Wizard will help the user
choose the correct inputs for the results:
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Individual Risk Contours: Multi-Vulnerability
• Multi-Vulnerability:
• Multiple Vulnerability types – Single Risk Levels –
Single Run Row/Combination
• The Risk results Wizard will help the user
choose the correct inputs for the results:
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Individual Risk Ranking Grid
• Individual Risk Grid provides detailed risk results for each Risk Ranking Point:
• Total Risk (/year):
• This is the likelihood of death per year caused by each
release/effect type at the location of the risk ranking point.
• Percentage Risk:
• This is the Risk divided by the Total Risk from all releases.
This shows an easy reference of relative contribution of the
level of Risk from each release/effect type
• Risk Per Outcome:
• This is the individual risk at the location of the risk ranking
point, divided by the release’s event frequency. This tells us
the magnitude of the event independent of its potential for
happening. i.e. if it does happen, how bad is it?
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Individual Risk Ranking Grid
• When generating the Individual Risk Ranking Grid, Risk results Wizard enables you to customize
the results view by choosing which items are to be included in the table:
1. Run Row/Combination
2. Scenarios
3. Outcome Type
4. Risk Ranking points
5. Vulnerability Type
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Individual Risk Ranking Details
• The Individual Risk Details table lists all of the individual outcomes that contribute to the
individual risk for the Risk Ranking Points
• When generating the Individual Risk Details view, Risk results Wizard enables the user to
customize the table by choosing which items are to be included in the results:
1. Run Row/Combination
2. Scenarios
3. Outcome Type
4. Risk Ranking points
5. Vulnerability Type
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Societal Risk Results
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Societal Risk Results in Safeti
Societal Risk results available:
• Societal Risk graphs (FN Curves):
• Smooth FN curves
• Raw FN curves
• Societal Risk tables:
• Societal Risk Ranking Grid
• Category PLL With Detailed Calculations
• FN Totals
• FN Details
With Default Calculation
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FN Curves
• FN curves show the cumulative frequency of outcomes that cause N or more fatalities.
• FN curves can be compared against the Min. or
Max. allowable risk limits (ALARP region)
• Can be generated for both Runrows &
Combinations
• 2 types of FN curves are available:
• Smooth FN
• Raw FN
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Societal Risk: Smoothed FN Curves
• Safeti will draw a smoothed FN curve using pre-defined ranges of fatality numbers, e.g. 1-2, 2-10,
10-100, 100-1000, etc.
• Smoothed FN is based on totalled results for the
Run Row/combination without any details recorded
about which Models, Weathers or types of effect
contributed to the risk-level in a given range of N
• It is not possible to filter or customize the Smoothed FN
curve to show specific scenarios, weathers, effect types,
etc.
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Societal Risk: Raw FN Curves
• Raw FN curve contains details of the societal risk results for each individual outcome that is
modelled, i.e. the frequency and number of fatalities for each combination of Model, Weather,
Direction, effect-type and ignition time
• The Raw RN results give the exact number of fatalities rather
than a set of pre-defined ranges
• For Raw FN curves, the Risk results Wizard enables the user
customize the curve by choosing which items are to be
included in the results for Raw FN:
• Run Row/Combination
• Scenarios
• Outcome Type
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Societal Risk: Societal Risk Ranking Grid
• Risk Integral:
• This is the number of people potentially killed by the release
scenario per average year
• Average Outcome:
• This is the total rate of death divided by the event frequency
for the release scenario.
• This shows the magnitude of the event independent of its
potential for happening (frequency). i.e. if it does happen,
how bad is it?
• Frequency of fatalities in the Range:
• This is the sum of the frequencies for the outcomes that
cause the number of fatalities specified by a specific range.
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Societal Risk: Category PLL
• The Category PLL results give societal risk results in terms of Potential Loss of Life (Frequency F
x Fatalities N) for each population category
• The results are available at several different levels, allowing drilldown to investigate relative
contributions from different scenarios and outcomes
• The various levels are:
• Level 1: Group (Run Row/Combination)
• Level 2: Area
• Level 3: Building (Indoor/Outdoor)
• Level 4: Models/Scenario
• Level 5: Type of Outcome
• Level 6: Detailed Individual Outcomes
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Societal Risk: FN Totals
• The FN Totals table lists all of the individual outcomes that contribute to the societal risk, giving
the risk in terms of the total number of fatalities caused by the outcome, across all populations
• The rows can be grouped by dragging the column header for the column you want to group by
into the Grouping area at the top of the View
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Societal Risk: FN Details
• The FN details table lists all of the individual outcomes that contribute to the societal risk
• There will be a separate entry for the outcome for each combination of Building and Population
Category for which the outcome causes fatalities.
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Risk Results Wizard and Results Selections
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Risk Results Wizard
• Risk results Wizard enables the user customize the Risk results by choosing which items are to
be included in the results
• Depending on the results type you want to see the results wizard will step by step let you choose
which of these items are to be included
in the results view:
• Run Row/Combination
• Scenarios
• Outcome Type
• Risk Ranking points
• Vulnerability type
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Risk Results Selections
• Once you have chosen all the items you want to include in your Risk results view, the Selection
can be given a name and saved in the Programme:
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Risk Results Selections
• The created selections are all saved on the Results tab,
for easy and quick access
• The selections can also be renamed, deleted, duplicated,
or edited
• More risk results can be generated and viewed from the
created selections
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Risk Results Analysis
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Which Releases are Contributing to the Risk?
• Once the level of risk is known it is important to know which release cases are contributing to that
level of risk
• Risk Ranking Points can be placed on the map
• For each location specified details of contributions to risk at that point from individual releases is
reported in an individual risk ranking report
• These Risk Ranking Reports allow you to identify the high risk contributors, the critical items on
your site which largely influence the risk at those specific locations
• By knowing which equipment items and release scenarios pose the largest level of risk, the risks
can be managed
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Analysing the Risk Results
• To answer the question “What is the Overall level of risk?” we can look at Individual Risk
Contours and/or FN Curves showing societal risk results
• To see which events are contributing to risks at specific locations we can use Risk Ranking Point
results (Individual Risk ranking grid)
• To see which events are contributing most to the number of fatalities predicted from all the events
we can look at the Societal Risk Ranking Report
• To see which population groups are more exposed to risk and also which event are causing more
risk to different population categories we can look at the Category PLL results
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