Safeti Training
Module 18 – Risk Models
V8.7
Contents
• Transportation Route Model
• Pipeline Risk Model
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Transportation Route Model
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Route Model
• Designed to calculate the risk of transportation
activities e.g. crude oil by rail or chemicals by
road
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Route Modelling Schematic
Route
Effect Zone
Village
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Route Model
• The Route Model allows you to define a transportation
route and to model representative scenarios (failures) at
pre-defined intervals along it
• It consist of two parts:
• Route segments
Represents a transportation route along which failures may
occur
• Scenario groups
Scenario groups: A set of consequence models which
represent the accidents that could occur along the route
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Route Model – Route Segments
• Route segments are defined directly on the GIS as a polyline
• Key Inputs:
• Scenario group selection
• Spacing of events
• Failure frequency (/year)
• Geometry tab details:
• Coordinates
• Overall Length
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Route Model – Scenario Groups
• Works with all equipment item types except pipeline polyline
model
• Event probabilities defined per scenario
• Upper limit of 1 for each individual scenario (if >1, error given)
• Cumulative total for all scenarios can exceed 1 (if>1, warning given)
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Pipeline Risk Model
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Pipeline Risk Model
• Able to calculate discharge and
risk results along a pipeline from:
• Breaches at specific user-specified
locations
• Releases from automatically
calculated section/sub-section
breach points
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Pipeline Risk Modelling Capabilities in Safeti
• Draw directly on GIS
• Specify valves locations and their properties
• Define sections of the pipeline which may have various:
• Elevation
• Pipe wall thickness
• Diameter differences
• Safeti creates a complete pipeline definition containing segments to be modelled
• Create breaches of interest (small, medium, large, full bore rupture etc.) which will be modelled
for all sections along the pipeline
• In addition to the systematic breaches you can produce detailed results from a breach at a
location of interest along the pipeline
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Pipeline Risk Model
• Every release location will have different consequences:
Pipeline
Village
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Multiple Pipeline Sections with Variations from Default
• Multiple sections can be defined for the Pipeline by using valves
• Different sections can have variations from the default settings in:
• Internal diameter
• Wall thickness
• Section height
Local wall thickness Pipeline
ESD Valves
Culverted section
Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4
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Automatically Sub-sectioning the pipeline
• Sections are automatically divided to sub-sections based on length and pressure drop through
the pipeline • Δ pressure drop <20%
• Length > 500m
• Length < 20% of total
Sub section 4
Sub section 1
Sub section 2
Sub section 3
Sub section 5
Sub section 6
Sub section 7
Sub section 8
Section 1 Section 2 Section 3 Section 4 Section 5
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Pipeline Model Reports
• Auto Sectioning Report • Section Breach Discharge Report
• Sub-section distances • Number of release scenarios modelled
(accounting for safety systems)
• Sub-section pressures
• Number of rationalised release scenarios
• Sub-section failure frequencies
• Discharge attributes
• Locations (x,y)
• Discharge release data (rates, temperatures etc.)
• Flammable release data (fireball/explosive mass)
• Event probabilities
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Pipeline Model Graph Results
• Pressure vs Distance at subsection midpoints
• Shows pressure used for discharge calculations
• Average release duration versus breach
distance
• Average release rate versus breach distance
• Risk contours along the pipeline
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Safeti Training
V8.7
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