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Monthly Forecasting Error Analysis

The document presents a monthly forecast analysis including actual values, moving averages, exponential smoothing, regression forecasts, and error metrics. It tracks the performance of the forecasts through absolute and squared errors, as well as cumulative errors and tracking signals. The data spans from January to May of two consecutive years, highlighting trends and forecasting accuracy.

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rakib.fin.du
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15 views2 pages

Monthly Forecasting Error Analysis

The document presents a monthly forecast analysis including actual values, moving averages, exponential smoothing, regression forecasts, and error metrics. It tracks the performance of the forecasts through absolute and squared errors, as well as cumulative errors and tracking signals. The data spans from January to May of two consecutive years, highlighting trends and forecasting accuracy.

Uploaded by

rakib.fin.du
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Month Actual t 2_Period_MA 3_Period_MA Exp_Smooth_0.

3 Regression_Forecast Error Abs_Error Squared_Error


Jan 265 1 #N/A #N/A 268.039215686275 -3.03921568627 3.03921568627 9.2368319877
Feb 275 2 #N/A #N/A 265.00 274.497549019608 0.50245098039 0.50245098039 0.2524569877
Mar 285 3 270 #N/A 268.00 280.955882352941 4.04411764706 4.04411764706 16.3548875433
Apr 280 4 280 275.00 273.10 287.414215686275 -7.41421568627 7.41421568627 54.9705942426
May 295 5 282.5 280.00 275.17 293.872549019608 1.12745098039 1.12745098039 1.27114571319
Jun 310 6 287.5 286.67 281.12 300.330882352941 9.66911764706 9.66911764706 93.4918360727
Jul 300 7 302.5 295.00 289.78 306.789215686275 -6.78921568627 6.78921568627 46.0934496348
Aug 315 8 305 301.67 292.85 313.247549019608 1.75245098039 1.75245098039 3.07108443868
Sep 325 9 307.5 308.33 299.49 319.705882352941 5.29411764706 5.29411764706 28.0276816609
Oct 320 10 320 313.33 307.15 326.164215686275 -6.16421568627 6.16421568627 37.9975550269
Nov 340 11 322.5 320.00 311.00 332.622549019608 7.37745098039 7.37745098039 54.4267829681
Dec 330 12 330 328.33 319.70 339.080882352941 -9.08088235294 9.08088235294 82.462424308
Jan 345 13 335 330.00 322.79 345.539215686275 -0.53921568627 0.53921568627 0.29075355632
Feb 355 14 337.5 338.33 329.45 351.997549019608 3.00245098039 3.00245098039 9.01471188966
Mar 365 15 350 343.33 337.12 358.455882352941 6.54411764706 6.54411764706 42.8254757785
Apr 360 16 360 355.00 345.48 364.914215686275 -4.91421568627 4.91421568627 24.1495158112
May 370 17 362.5 360.00 349.84 371.372549019608 -1.37254901961 1.37254901961 1.88389081123
Abs_Percent_Error Cum_Error Tracking_Signal
1.14687384387716 3.0392156863 0.329032258065
0.182709447415329 3.5416666667 0.746455646119
1.41898864809082 7.5857843137 0.880560188279
2.64793417366946 15 0.742438534872
0.38218677301429 16.12745098 0.982351886478
3.11907020872866 25.796568627 0.881543416061
2.26307189542482 32.585784314 1.029003713387
0.556333644568938 34.338235294 1.22231506355
1.6289592760181 39.632352941 1.411129569291
1.92631740196077 45.796568627 1.57502351385
2.16983852364475 53.174019608 1.694449198759
2.75178253119429 62.254901961 1.746865581909
0.156294401818688 62.794117647 1.90753202125
0.845760839547086 65.796568627 2.108081589558
1.79290894439968 72.340686275 2.261646886479
1.36505991285402 77.254901961 2.452842262366
0.370959194488607 78.62745098 2.642568140521

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