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bq_stats Extension Load Error

The document contains a log of an IPython session where an error occurred while loading the 'bq_stats' extension due to a missing module. It also details the installation of the 'yfinance' package and its dependencies, along with warnings related to NumPy and convergence issues in a SARIMAX model. Additionally, it includes information about the conversion of a Jupyter notebook to HTML format.

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akunminingbagus1
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17 views4 pages

bq_stats Extension Load Error

The document contains a log of an IPython session where an error occurred while loading the 'bq_stats' extension due to a missing module. It also details the installation of the 'yfinance' package and its dependencies, along with warnings related to NumPy and convergence issues in a SARIMAX model. Additionally, it includes information about the conversion of a Jupyter notebook to HTML format.

Uploaded by

akunminingbagus1
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as TXT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

12.

8s 1 [IPKernelApp] WARNING | Error in loading extension: bq_stats


12.8s 2 Check your config files in /root/.ipython/profile_default
12.8s 3 Traceback (most recent call last):
12.8s 4 File "/opt/conda/lib/python3.10/site-packages/IPython/core/[Link]",
line 282, in init_extensions
12.8s 5 [Link].extension_manager.load_extension(ext)
12.8s 6 File "/opt/conda/lib/python3.10/site-packages/IPython/core/[Link]",
line 76, in load_extension
12.8s 7 return self._load_extension(module_str)
12.8s 8 File "/opt/conda/lib/python3.10/site-packages/IPython/core/[Link]",
line 91, in _load_extension
12.8s 9 mod = import_module(module_str)
12.8s 10 File "/opt/conda/lib/python3.10/importlib/__init__.py", line 126, in
import_module
12.8s 11 return _bootstrap._gcd_import(name[level:], package, level)
12.8s 12 File "<frozen importlib._bootstrap>", line 1050, in _gcd_import
12.8s 13 File "<frozen importlib._bootstrap>", line 1027, in _find_and_load
12.8s 14 File "<frozen importlib._bootstrap>", line 1004, in
_find_and_load_unlocked
12.8s 15 ModuleNotFoundError: No module named 'bq_stats'
16.5s 16 Collecting yfinance
16.5s 17 Downloading [Link] (65 kB)
16.5s 18 #[?25l #[90m━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━#[0m
#[32m0.0/65.3 kB#[0m #[31m?#[0m eta #[36m-:--:--#[0m
#[2K #[90m━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━#[0m #[32m65.3/65.3 kB#[0m
#[31m3.0 MB/s#[0m eta #[36m0:00:00#[0m
16.6s 19 #[?25hRequirement already satisfied: pandas>=1.3.0 in
/opt/conda/lib/python3.10/site-packages (from yfinance) (1.5.3)
16.6s 20 Requirement already satisfied: numpy>=1.16.5 in
/opt/conda/lib/python3.10/site-packages (from yfinance) (1.23.5)
16.6s 21 Requirement already satisfied: requests>=2.31 in
/opt/conda/lib/python3.10/site-packages (from yfinance) (2.31.0)
16.6s 22 Collecting multitasking>=0.0.7 (from yfinance)
16.6s 23 Downloading [Link] (8.5 kB)
16.6s 24 Requirement already satisfied: lxml>=4.9.1 in
/opt/conda/lib/python3.10/site-packages (from yfinance) (4.9.3)
16.6s 25 Requirement already satisfied: appdirs>=1.4.4 in
/opt/conda/lib/python3.10/site-packages (from yfinance) (1.4.4)
16.6s 26 Requirement already satisfied: pytz>=2022.5 in
/opt/conda/lib/python3.10/site-packages (from yfinance) (2023.3)
16.6s 27 Requirement already satisfied: frozendict>=2.3.4 in
/opt/conda/lib/python3.10/site-packages (from yfinance) (2.3.8)
16.6s 28 Requirement already satisfied: beautifulsoup4>=4.11.1 in
/opt/conda/lib/python3.10/site-packages (from yfinance) (4.12.2)
16.6s 29 Requirement already satisfied: html5lib>=1.1 in
/opt/conda/lib/python3.10/site-packages (from yfinance) (1.1)
16.6s 30 Requirement already satisfied: soupsieve>1.2 in
/opt/conda/lib/python3.10/site-packages (from beautifulsoup4>=4.11.1->yfinance)
(2.3.2.post1)
16.7s 31 Requirement already satisfied: six>=1.9 in /opt/conda/lib/python3.10/site-
packages (from html5lib>=1.1->yfinance) (1.16.0)
16.7s 32 Requirement already satisfied: webencodings in
/opt/conda/lib/python3.10/site-packages (from html5lib>=1.1->yfinance) (0.5.1)
16.7s 33 Requirement already satisfied: python-dateutil>=2.8.1 in
/opt/conda/lib/python3.10/site-packages (from pandas>=1.3.0->yfinance) (2.8.2)
16.7s 34 Requirement already satisfied: charset-normalizer<4,>=2 in
/opt/conda/lib/python3.10/site-packages (from requests>=2.31->yfinance) (3.1.0)
16.7s 35 Requirement already satisfied: idna<4,>=2.5 in
/opt/conda/lib/python3.10/site-packages (from requests>=2.31->yfinance) (3.4)
16.7s 36 Requirement already satisfied: urllib3<3,>=1.21.1 in
/opt/conda/lib/python3.10/site-packages (from requests>=2.31->yfinance) (1.26.15)
16.7s 37 Requirement already satisfied: certifi>=2017.4.17 in
/opt/conda/lib/python3.10/site-packages (from requests>=2.31->yfinance) (2023.5.7)
28.5s 38 Installing collected packages: multitasking, yfinance
28.8s 39 Successfully installed multitasking-0.0.11 yfinance-0.2.28
30.1s 40 /opt/conda/lib/python3.10/site-packages/scipy/__init__.py:146:
UserWarning: A NumPy version >=1.16.5 and <1.23.0 is required for this version of
SciPy (detected version 1.23.5
30.1s 41 [Link](f"A NumPy version >={np_minversion} and <{np_maxversion}"
31.7s 42 <class '[Link]'>
31.7s 43 RangeIndex: 144 entries, 0 to 143
31.7s 44 Data columns (total 2 columns):
31.7s 45 # Column Non-Null Count Dtype
31.7s 46 --- ------ -------------- -----
31.7s 47 0 Month 144 non-null object
31.7s 48 1 #Passengers 144 non-null int64
31.7s 49 dtypes: int64(1), object(1)
31.7s 50 memory usage: 2.4+ KB
31.7s 51 Month #Passengers
31.7s 52 0 1949-01 112
31.7s 53 1 1949-02 118
31.7s 54 2 1949-03 132
31.7s 55 3 1949-04 129
31.7s 56 4 1949-05 121
32.3s 57 P Value: 2.7328918500142026e-29 Number of differencing needed: 2
34.3s 58 /opt/conda/lib/python3.10/site-packages/statsmodels/tsa/statespace/
[Link]: UserWarning: Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters
found. Using zeros as starting parameters.
34.3s 59 warn('Non-stationary starting autoregressive parameters'
36.1s 60 SARIMAX Results
36.1s 61
==============================================================================
36.1s 62 Dep. Variable: y No. Observations:
144
36.1s 63 Model: ARIMA(11, 2, 1) Log Likelihood -
557.654
36.1s 64 Date: Sat, 19 Aug 2023 AIC
1141.307
36.1s 65 Time: 14:05:24 BIC
1179.733
36.1s 66 Sample: 0 HQIC
1156.922
36.1s 67 - 144
36.1s 68 Covariance Type: opg
36.1s 69
==============================================================================
36.1s 70 coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
36.1s 71
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
36.1s 72 ar.L1 -0.8716 0.069 -12.659 0.000 -1.007 -
0.737
36.1s 73 ar.L2 -0.9382 0.044 -21.325 0.000 -1.024 -
0.852
36.1s 74 ar.L3 -0.9009 0.070 -12.909 0.000 -1.038 -
0.764
36.1s 75 ar.L4 -0.9439 0.042 -22.740 0.000 -1.025 -
0.863
36.1s 76 ar.L5 -0.8746 0.067 -13.007 0.000 -1.006 -
0.743
36.1s 77 ar.L6 -0.9192 0.031 -29.705 0.000 -0.980 -
0.859
36.1s 78 ar.L7 -0.8734 0.067 -13.039 0.000 -1.005 -
0.742
36.1s 79 ar.L8 -0.9724 0.044 -22.278 0.000 -1.058 -
0.887
36.1s 80 ar.L9 -0.8701 0.054 -16.249 0.000 -0.975 -
0.765
36.1s 81 ar.L10 -0.9473 0.040 -23.830 0.000 -1.025 -
0.869
36.1s 82 ar.L11 -0.8499 0.064 -13.370 0.000 -0.974 -
0.725
36.1s 83 ma.L1 -0.3858 0.101 -3.839 0.000 -0.583 -
0.189
36.1s 84 sigma2 139.1212 19.763 7.040 0.000 100.387
177.856
36.1s 85
===================================================================================
36.1s 86 Ljung-Box (L1) (Q): 0.02 Jarque-Bera (JB):
5.41
36.1s 87 Prob(Q): 0.89 Prob(JB):
0.07
36.1s 88 Heteroskedasticity (H): 3.55 Skew:
0.19
36.1s 89 Prob(H) (two-sided): 0.00 Kurtosis:
3.88
36.1s 90
===================================================================================
36.1s 91
36.1s 92 Warnings:
36.1s 93 [1] Covariance matrix calculated using the outer product of gradients
(complex-step).
36.1s 94 /opt/conda/lib/python3.10/site-packages/statsmodels/base/[Link]:
ConvergenceWarning: Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to converge. Check
mle_retvals
36.1s 95 [Link]("Maximum Likelihood optimization failed to "
37.1s 96 0
37.1s 97 143
42.0s 98 /opt/conda/lib/python3.10/site-packages/traitlets/[Link]:
FutureWarning: --
[Link]=["remove_papermill_header.RemovePapermillHeader"] for
containers is deprecated in traitlets 5.0. You can pass `--[Link]
item` ... multiple times to add items to a list.
42.0s 99 warn(
42.0s 100 [NbConvertApp] WARNING | Config option `kernel_spec_manager_class` not
recognized by `NbConvertApp`.
42.0s 101 [NbConvertApp] Converting notebook __notebook__.ipynb to notebook
42.6s 102 [NbConvertApp] Writing 465079 bytes to __notebook__.ipynb
44.7s 103 /opt/conda/lib/python3.10/site-packages/traitlets/[Link]:
FutureWarning: --
[Link]=["[Link]"] for
containers is deprecated in traitlets 5.0. You can pass `--[Link]
item` ... multiple times to add items to a list.
44.7s 104 warn(
44.7s 105 [NbConvertApp] WARNING | Config option `kernel_spec_manager_class` not
recognized by `NbConvertApp`.
44.8s 106 [NbConvertApp] Converting notebook __notebook__.ipynb to html
46.0s 107 [NbConvertApp] Support files will be in __results___files/
46.0s 108 [NbConvertApp] Making directory __results___files
46.0s 109 [NbConvertApp] Making directory __results___files
46.0s 110 [NbConvertApp] Making directory __results___files
46.0s 111 [NbConvertApp] Making directory __results___files
46.0s 112 [NbConvertApp] Making directory __results___files
46.0s 113 [NbConvertApp] Making directory __results___files
46.0s 114 [NbConvertApp] Making directory __results___files
46.0s 115 [NbConvertApp] Making directory __results___files
46.0s 116 [NbConvertApp] Writing 311092 bytes to __results__.html

Common questions

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The error 'ModuleNotFoundError: No module named 'bq_stats'' occurred, indicating that the 'bq_stats' module is not installed in the Python environment. This suggests that the environment setup is incomplete and the required module is missing, which is necessary for the extension to function correctly .

The warning about non-stationary starting parameters suggests that initial parameter estimates might be unsuitable for convergence, prompting the use of zeros instead. The failure in maximum likelihood optimization indicates that the model fitting process did not complete successfully, affecting the reliability of the model's results. Both warnings signal potential issues in model stability and accuracy, requiring further investigation .

The use of an ARIMA(11, 2, 1) model suggests significant complexity, reflecting a dependence on extensive historical data to accurately capture underlying patterns and handle autocorrelation. This complexity indicates the model's aim to incorporate multiple past lagged terms, requiring a rich historical dataset for precise parameter estimation and forecasting .

In the SARIMAX results, the standard error of the lag coefficients (e.g., ar.L1 to ar.L11) provides a measure of the precision of the coefficient estimates. Smaller standard errors indicate more precise estimates, which suggests greater confidence in the reliability of the model's predictions. The consistent significance (p < 0.05) confirms the statistical relevance of the coefficients .

The 'Ljung-Box (L1)' statistic tests the null hypothesis of no autocorrelation in residuals at lag 1. The reported Prob(Q) of 0.89 suggests failing to reject the null hypothesis, indicating no significant autocorrelation present, validating the SARIMAX model's assumptions. Thus, it supports the model's adequacy in capturing patterns necessary for accurate predictions .

The reported P-value of 2.7328918500142026e-29 is far below common significance level thresholds (e.g., 0.05), indicating a strong rejection of the null hypothesis of a unit root. This implies that the data, after differencing, exhibits significant stationarity, which is crucial for accurate modeling in time series analysis .

Using 'zeros' as starting parameters in the SARIMAX model setup implies default or neutral starting values due to non-stationarity issues. This can impede proper parameter convergence and lead to imprecise model estimation, highlighting potential inadequacies in the initial model configuration that might require optimization or re-specification .

The SARIMAX model's AIC (1141.307) and BIC (1179.733) values provide evaluative criteria for model fit and complexity. Lower AIC or BIC values among models suggest a preferable balance between goodness of fit and model simplicity. These criteria help in selecting a model with optimal predictive performance by penalizing overfitting .

The ARIMA model used in the SARIMAX results applies differencing as evidenced by 'ARIMA(11, 2, 1)', where '2' refers to the order of differencing. Differencing is a transformation applied to make a time series stationary by removing trends, which is critical for the model's assumptions and to improve the forecasting ability .

The 'yfinance' package requires dependencies such as pandas, numpy, requests, and lxml, among others. These dependencies ensure compatibility and functionality by providing necessary capabilities for data manipulation, HTTP requests, and XML parsing, which are critical for retrieving and processing financial data efficiently .

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