IMF Statistical Appendix Overview
IMF Statistical Appendix Overview
T
he Statistical Appendix presents histori- Established policies of national authorities are
cal data as well as projections. It comprises assumed to be maintained. The more specific policy
seven sections: Assumptions, What’s New, assumptions underlying the projections for selected
Data and Conventions, Country Notes, economies are described in Box A1.
Classification of Countries, Key Data Documentation, With regard to interest rates, it is assumed that the
and Statistical Tables. London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on six-month
The assumptions underlying the estimates and pro- US dollar deposits will average 2.3 percent in 2019
jections for 2019–20 and the medium-term scenario and 2.0 percent in 2020, that three-month euro depos-
for 2021–24 are summarized in the first section. The its will average –0.4 percent in 2019 and –0.6 percent
second section presents a brief description of the in 2020, and that six-month yen deposits will average
changes to the database and statistical tables since the 0.0 percent in 2019 and –0.1 percent in 2020.
April 2019 World Economic Outlook (WEO). The third As a reminder, in regard to the introduction of the
section provides a general description of the data and euro, on December 31, 1998, the Council of the
the conventions used for calculating country group European Union decided that, effective January 1, 1999,
composites. The fourth section summarizes selected the irrevocably fixed conversion rates between the euro
key information for each country. The fifth section and currencies of the member countries adopting the
summarizes the classification of countries in the vari- euro are as described in Box 5.4 of the October 1998
ous groups presented in the WEO. The sixth section WEO. See Box 5.4 of the October 1998 WEO for
provides information on methods and reporting stan- details on how the conversion rates were established.
dards for the member countries’ national account and
government finance indicators included in the report. 1 euro = 13.7603 Austrian schillings
The last, and main, section comprises the statistical = 40.3399 Belgian francs
tables. (Statistical Appendix A is included here; = 0.585274 Cyprus pound1
Statistical Appendix B is available online at [Link] = 1.95583 Deutsche marks
.org/en/Publications/WEO.) = 15.6466 Estonian krooni2
Data in these tables have been compiled on the basis = 5.94573 Finnish markkaa
of information available through September 30, 2019. = 6.55957 French francs
The figures for 2019 and beyond are shown with the = 340.750 Greek drachmas3
same degree of precision as the historical figures solely = 0.787564 Irish pound
for convenience; because they are projections, the same = 1,936.27 Italian lire
degree of accuracy is not to be inferred. = 0.702804 Latvian lat4
= 3.45280 Lithuanian litas5
= 40.3399 Luxembourg francs
Assumptions = 0.42930 Maltese lira1
= 2.20371 Netherlands guilders
Real effective exchange rates for the advanced economies
= 200.482 Portuguese escudos
are assumed to remain constant at their average levels
= 30.1260 Slovak koruna6
measured during the period July 26 to August 23, 2019.
= 239.640 Slovenian tolars7
For 2019 and 2020, these assumptions imply average
= 166.386 Spanish pesetas
US dollar–special drawing right (SDR) conversion rates 1Established on January 1, 2008.
of 1.382 and 1.377, US dollar–euro conversion rates of 2Established on January 1, 2011.
1.123 and 1.120, and yen–US dollar conversion rates of 3Established on January 1, 2001.
4Established on January 1, 2014.
108.2 and 104.5, respectively. 5Established on January 1, 2015.
It is assumed that the price of oil will average $61.78 6Established on January 1, 2009.
including analytical frameworks, concepts, definitions, System of National and Regional Accounts (ESA) 2010, and a
classifications, and valuation procedures used in the few countries use versions of the SNA older than that from 1993.
A similar adoption pattern is expected for the BPM6 and GFSM
production of economic statistics. The WEO database 2014. Please refer to Table G, which lists the statistical standards
reflects information from both national source agencies adhered to by each country.
and international organizations. 2 Averages for real GDP and its components, employment,
for all data for the emerging market and developing percent changes for individual countries weighted by
economies group—except data on inflation and money the US dollar value of exports or imports as a share
growth, for which geometric averages are used. The of total world or group exports or imports (in the
following conventions apply: preceding year).
Country group composites for exchange rates, Unless noted otherwise, group composites are
interest rates, and growth rates of monetary aggregates computed if 90 percent or more of the share of group
are weighted by GDP converted to US dollars at market weights is represented.
exchange rates (averaged over the preceding three years) Data refer to calendar years, except in the case of
as a share of group GDP. a few countries that use fiscal years; Table F lists the
Composites for other data relating to the domestic economies with exceptional reporting periods for
economy, whether growth rates or ratios, are weighted national accounts and government finance data for
by GDP valued at purchasing power parity as a share each country.
of total world or group GDP.3 Annual inflation rates For some countries, the figures for 2018 and earlier
are simple percentage changes from the previous are based on estimates rather than actual outturns;
years, except in the case of emerging market and Table G lists the latest actual outturns for the indicators
developing economies, for which the rates are based on in the national accounts, prices, government finance,
logarithmic differences. and balance of payments indicators for each country.
Composites for real GDP per capita in purchasing
power parity terms are sums of individual country
data after conversion to the international dollar in the
Country Notes
years indicated. The consumer price data for Argentina before
Unless noted otherwise, composites for all sectors December 2013 reflect the consumer price index (CPI)
for the euro area are corrected for reporting discrepan- for the Greater Buenos Aires Area (CPI-GBA), while
cies in intra-area transactions. Unadjusted annual GDP from December 2013 to October 2015 the data reflect
data are used for the euro area and for the majority the national CPI (IPCNu). The government that took
of individual countries, except for Cyprus, Ireland, office in December 2015 discontinued the IPCNu,
Portugal, and Spain, which report calendar-adjusted stating that it was flawed, and released a new CPI for
data. For data prior to 1999, data aggregations apply the Greater Buenos Aires Area on June 15, 2016 (a new
1995 European currency unit exchange rates. national CPI has been disseminated starting in June
Composites for fiscal data are sums of individual 2017). At its November 9, 2016, meeting, the IMF
country data after conversion to US dollars at the Executive Board considered the new CPI series to be in
average market exchange rates in the years indicated. line with international standards and lifted the declara-
Composite unemployment rates and employment tion of censure issued in 2013. Given the differences in
growth are weighted by labor force as a share of group geographical coverage, weights, sampling, and method-
labor force. ology of these series, the average CPI inflation for 2014,
Composites relating to external sector statistics 2015, and 2016 and end-of-period inflation for 2015
are sums of individual country data after conversion and 2016 are not reported in the October 2019 WEO.
to US dollars at the average market exchange rates Argentina’s authorities discontinued the publication
in the years indicated for balance of payments data of labor market data in December 2015 and released
and at end-of-year market exchange rates for debt new series starting in the second quarter of 2016.
denominated in currencies other than US dollars. The fiscal series for the Dominican Republic have the
Composites of changes in foreign trade volumes following coverage: public debt, debt service, and the
and prices, however, are arithmetic averages of cyclically adjusted/structural balances are for the con-
solidated public sector (which includes central govern-
3 See “Revised Purchasing Power Parity Weights” in the July 2014
Against the backdrop of a civil war and weak capacity, developments as the basis for the projections,
the reliability of Libya’s data, especially medium-term is complicated by the lack of discussions with the
projections, is low. authorities (the last Article IV consultation took place
Data for Syria are excluded from 2011 onward in 2004), incomplete understanding of the reported
because of the uncertain political situation. data, and difficulties in interpreting certain reported
Trinidad and Tobago’s growth estimates for 2018 economic indicators given economic developments.
are based on full-year energy sector data from the The fiscal accounts include the budgetary central
Ministry of Energy and Ministry of Finance, prelimi- government; social security; FOGADE (insurance
nary national accounts data for the first three quarters deposit institution); and a sample of public enterprises,
of the year from the Central Statistical Office, and including Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA); and
staff projections for fourth-quarter nonenergy output data for 2018 are IMF staff estimates. The effects of
based on available information. Growth projections hyperinflation and the paucity of reported data mean
from 2019 are unchanged from the April 2019 WEO that the IMF staff’s estimated macroeconomic indica-
in the absence of updates to published national tors need to be interpreted with caution. For example,
accounts data. nominal GDP is estimated assuming the GDP deflator
Ukraine’s revised national accounts data are available rises in line with the IMF staff’s estimated average
beginning in 2000 and exclude Crimea and Sevastopol inflation. Public external debt in relation to GDP is
from 2010. estimated using the IMF staff’s estimate of the average
Starting from October 2018 Uruguay’s public pen- exchange rate for the year. Wide uncertainty surrounds
sion system has been receiving transfers in the context these projections. Venezuela’s consumer prices are
of a new law that compensates persons affected by the excluded from all WEO group composites.
creation of the mixed pension system. These funds are
recorded as revenues, consistent with the IMF’s meth-
odology. Therefore, data and projections for 2018–22 Classification of Countries
are affected by these transfers, which amounted to Summary of the Country Classification
1.3 percent of GDP in 2018 and are projected to be The country classification in the WEO divides the
1.2 percent of GDP in 2019, 0.9 percent of GDP in world into two major groups: advanced economies
2020, 0.4 percent of GDP in 2021, 0.2 percent of GDP and emerging market and developing economies.4
in 2022, and zero percent of GDP thereafter. Please This classification is not based on strict criteria,
see IMF Country Report 19/64 for further details. The economic or otherwise, and it has evolved over time.
disclaimer about the public pension system applies only The objective is to facilitate analysis by providing
to the revenues and net lending/borrowing series. a reasonably meaningful method of organizing
The coverage of the fiscal data for Uruguay was data. Table A provides an overview of the country
changed from consolidated public sector (CPS) to classification, showing the number of countries in each
nonfinancial public sector (NFPS) with the October group by region and summarizing some key indicators
2019 WEO. In Uruguay, NFPS coverage includes of their relative size (GDP valued at purchasing
central government, local government, social power parity, total exports of goods and services, and
security funds, nonfinancial public corporations, population).
and Banco de Seguros del Estado. Historical data were Some countries remain outside the country
also revised accordingly. Under this narrower fiscal classification and therefore are not included in the
perimeter—which excludes the central bank—assets analysis. Cuba and the Democratic People’s Republic
and liabilities held by the NFPS where the counterpart of Korea are examples of countries that are not IMF
is the central bank are not netted out in debt figures. members, and their economies therefore are not
In this context, capitalization bonds issued in the past monitored by the IMF.
by the government to the central bank are now part of
the NFPS debt. Gross and net debt estimates for the 4 As used here, the terms “country” and “economy” do not always
period 2008–11 are preliminary. refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by interna-
tional law and practice. Some territorial entities included here are
Projecting the economic outlook in Venezuela, not states, although their statistical data are maintained on a separate
including assessing past and current economic and independent basis.
General Features and Composition of Groups in The analytical criterion source of export earnings dis-
the World Economic Outlook Classification tinguishes between the categories fuel (Standard Inter-
national Trade Classification [SITC] 3) and nonfuel
Advanced Economies
and then focuses on nonfuel primary products (SITCs
The 39 advanced economies are listed in Table B. 0, 1, 2, 4, and 68). Economies are categorized into one
The seven largest in terms of GDP based on market of these groups if their main source of export earn-
exchange rates—the United States, Japan, Germany, ings exceeded 50 percent of total exports on average
France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada— between 2014 and 2018.
constitute the subgroup of major advanced econo- The financial criteria focus on net creditor economies,
mies, often referred to as the Group of Seven (G7). net debtor economies, heavily indebted poor countries
The members of the euro area are also distinguished (HIPCs), and low-income developing countries (LIDCs).
as a subgroup. Composite data shown in the tables Economies are categorized as net debtors when their
for the euro area cover the current members for all latest net international investment position, where
years, even though the membership has increased over available, was less than zero or their current account
time. balance accumulations from 1972 (or earliest available
Table C lists the member countries of the European data) to 2018 were negative. Net debtor economies are
Union, not all of which are classified as advanced further differentiated on the basis of experience with
economies in the WEO. debt servicing.5
The HIPC group comprises the countries that are or
have been considered by the IMF and the World Bank
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
for participation in their debt initiative known as the
The group of emerging market and developing econ- HIPC Initiative, which aims to reduce the external debt
omies (155) includes all those that are not classified as burdens of all the eligible HIPCs to a “sustainable” level
advanced economies. in a reasonably short period of time.6 Many of these
The regional breakdowns of emerging market and countries have already benefited from debt relief and
developing economies are emerging and developing have graduated from the initiative.
Asia; emerging and developing Europe (sometimes The LIDCs are countries that have per capita
also referred to as “central and eastern Europe”); Latin income levels below a certain threshold (set at $2,700
America and the Caribbean (LAC); Middle East and in 2016 as measured by the World Bank’s Atlas
Central Asia (MECA, which comprises the regional method), structural features consistent with limited
subgroups Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, development and structural transformation, and
and Pakistan; and Caucasus and Central Asia); and external financial linkages insufficiently close for them
sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). to be widely seen as emerging market economies.
Emerging market and developing economies
are also classified according to analytical criteria.
5 During 2014–18, 25 economies incurred external
The analytical criteria reflect the composition of
payments arrears or entered into official or commercial bank
export earnings and a distinction between net creditor debt-rescheduling agreements. This group is referred to as economies
and net debtor economies. The detailed composition with arrears and/or rescheduling during 2014–18.
6 See David Andrews, Anthony R. Boote, Syed S. Rizavi,
of emerging market and developing economies
and Sukwinder Singh, “Debt Relief for Low-Income Countries:
in the regional and analytical groups is shown in The Enhanced HIPC Initiative,” IMF Pamphlet Series 51
Tables D and E. (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, November 1999).
Table A. Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods
and Services, and Population, 20181
(Percent of total for group or world)
Exports of Goods
GDP and Services Population
Number of Advanced Advanced Advanced
Economies Economies World Economies World Economies World
Advanced Economies 39 100.0 40.8 100.0 63.0 100.0 14.3
United States 37.2 15.2 16.0 10.1 30.6 4.4
Euro Area 19 27.9 11.4 42.0 26.5 31.7 4.5
Germany 7.9 3.2 11.9 7.5 7.8 1.1
France 5.4 2.2 5.8 3.6 6.1 0.9
Italy 4.3 1.8 4.2 2.7 5.7 0.8
Spain 3.4 1.4 3.1 2.0 4.3 0.6
Japan 10.1 4.1 5.9 3.7 11.8 1.7
United Kingdom 5.5 2.2 5.4 3.4 6.2 0.9
Canada 3.3 1.4 3.5 2.2 3.5 0.5
Other Advanced Economies 16 15.9 6.5 27.2 17.1 16.1 2.3
Memorandum
Major Advanced Economies 7 73.7 30.1 52.7 33.2 71.6 10.2
Emerging Emerging Emerging
Market and Market and Market and
Developing Developing Developing
Economies World Economies World Economies World
Emerging Market and Developing Economies 155 100.0 59.2 100.0 37.0 100.0 85.7
Regional Groups
Emerging and Developing Asia 30 56.2 33.2 48.6 18.0 56.3 48.2
China 31.5 18.7 28.8 10.7 21.8 18.7
India 13.1 7.7 5.9 2.2 20.8 17.9
ASEAN-5 5 9.4 5.5 12.3 4.6 8.8 7.6
Emerging and Developing Europe 16 12.1 7.2 16.5 6.1 5.9 5.1
Russia 5.3 3.1 5.5 2.0 2.3 2.0
Latin America and the Caribbean 33 12.6 7.5 13.7 5.1 9.7 8.4
Brazil 4.2 2.5 3.0 1.1 3.3 2.8
Mexico 3.2 1.9 5.2 1.9 1.9 1.7
Middle East and Central Asia 31 13.9 8.2 16.6 6.2 12.3 10.6
Saudi Arabia 2.3 1.4 3.4 1.3 0.5 0.4
Sub-Saharan Africa 45 5.2 3.0 4.6 1.7 15.7 13.5
Nigeria 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.3 3.1 2.6
South Africa 1.0 0.6 1.2 0.4 0.9 0.8
Analytical Groups2
By Source of Export Earnings
Fuel 27 17.1 10.1 22.1 8.2 11.6 10.0
Nonfuel 127 82.9 49.0 77.9 28.8 88.4 75.7
Of Which, Primary Products 35 5.1 3.0 5.2 1.9 9.0 7.7
By External Financing Source
Net Debtor Economies 122 51.7 30.6 49.7 18.4 68.4 58.6
Net Debtor Economies by Debt-
Servicing Experience
Economies with Arrears and/or
Rescheduling during 2014–18 25 3.4 2.0 2.8 1.0 5.8 4.9
Other Groups
Heavily Indebted Poor Countries 39 2.5 1.5 2.0 0.7 11.8 10.1
Low-Income Developing Countries 59 7.3 4.3 7.0 2.6 23.0 19.8
1The GDP shares are based on the purchasing-power-parity valuation of economies’ GDP. The number of economies comprising each group reflects those
insufficient data.
Table D. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings
Fuel Nonfuel Primary Products
Emerging and Developing Asia
Brunei Darussalam Kiribati
Timor-Leste Lao P.D.R.
Marshall Islands
Papua New Guinea
Solomon Islands
Tuvalu
Emerging and Developing Europe
Russia
Latin America and the Caribbean
Ecuador Argentina
Trinidad and Tobago Bolivia
Venezuela Chile
Guyana
Paraguay
Peru
Suriname
Uruguay
Middle East and Central Asia
Algeria Afghanistan
Azerbaijan Mauritania
Bahrain Somalia
Iran Sudan
Iraq Tajikistan
Kazakhstan Uzbekistan
Kuwait
Libya
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Turkmenistan
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
Sub-Saharan Africa
Angola Burkina Faso
Chad Burundi
Republic of Congo Central African Republic
Equatorial Guinea Democratic Republic of the Congo
Gabon Côte d’Ivoire
Nigeria Eritrea
South Sudan Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Liberia
Malawi
Mali
Sierra Leone
South Africa
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Table E. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position, and Status as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries
and Low-Income Developing Countries
Low-Income Low-Income
Net External Heavily Indebted Developing Net External Heavily Indebted Developing
Position1 Poor Countries2 Countries Position1 Poor Countries2 Countries
Emerging and Developing Asia North Macedonia *
Bangladesh * * Poland *
Bhutan * * Romania *
Brunei Darussalam • Russia •
Cambodia * * Serbia *
China • Turkey *
Fiji * Ukraine *
India * Latin America and the Caribbean
Indonesia * Antigua and Barbuda *
Kiribati • * Argentina •
Lao P.D.R. * * Aruba *
Malaysia * The Bahamas *
Maldives * Barbados *
Marshall Islands * Belize *
Micronesia • Bolivia * •
Mongolia * Brazil *
Myanmar * * Chile *
Nauru * Colombia *
Nepal • * Costa Rica *
Palau • Dominica •
Papua New Guinea * * Dominican Republic *
Philippines * Ecuador *
Samoa * El Salvador *
Solomon Islands * * Grenada *
Sri Lanka * Guatemala *
Thailand * Guyana * •
Timor-Leste • * Haiti * • *
Tonga * Honduras * • *
Tuvalu • Jamaica *
Vanuatu * Mexico *
Vietnam * * Nicaragua * • *
Emerging and Developing Europe Panama *
Albania * Paraguay *
Belarus * Peru *
Bosnia and Herzegovina * St. Kitts and Nevis *
Bulgaria * St. Lucia *
Croatia * St. Vincent and the
Hungary * Grenadines *
Kosovo * Suriname *
Moldova * * Trinidad and Tobago •
Montenegro * Uruguay *
Venezuela •
Table E. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position, and Status as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries
and Low-Income Developing Countries (continued)
Low-Income Low-Income
Net External Heavily Indebted Developing Net External Heavily Indebted Developing
Position1 Poor Countries2 Countries Position1 Poor Countries2 Countries
Middle East and Central Asia Cameroon * • *
Afghanistan • • * Central African Republic * • *
Algeria • Chad * • *
Armenia * Comoros * • *
Azerbaijan • Democratic Republic of
Bahrain • the Congo * • *
Djibouti * * Republic of Congo * • *
Egypt * Côte d’Ivoire * • *
Georgia * Equatorial Guinea •
Iran • Eritrea * * *
Iraq • Eswatini •
Jordan * Ethiopia * • *
Kazakhstan * Gabon •
Kuwait • The Gambia * • *
Kyrgyz Republic * * Ghana * • *
Lebanon * Guinea * • *
Libya • Guinea-Bissau * • *
Mauritania * • * Kenya * *
Morocco * Lesotho * *
Oman * Liberia * • *
Pakistan * Madagascar * • *
Qatar • Malawi * • *
Saudi Arabia • Mali * • *
Somalia * * * Mauritius •
Sudan * * * Mozambique * • *
Syria3 ... Namibia *
Tajikistan * * Niger * • *
Tunisia * Nigeria * *
Turkmenistan * Rwanda * • *
United Arab Emirates • São Tomé and Príncipe * • *
Uzbekistan • * Senegal * • *
Yemen * * Seychelles *
Sub-Saharan Africa Sierra Leone * • *
Angola * South Africa •
Benin * • * South Sudan3 ... *
Botswana • Tanzania * • *
Burkina Faso * • * Togo * • *
Burundi * • * Uganda * • *
Cabo Verde * Zambia * • *
Zimbabwe * *
1Dot (star) indicates that the country is a net creditor (net debtor).
2Dot instead of star indicates that the country has reached the completion point, which allows it to receive the full debt relief committed to at the decision point.
3South Sudan and Syria are omitted from the net external position group composite for lack of a fully developed database.
Commerce, and/or Development; MoF = Ministry of Finance and/or Treasury; NSO = National Statistics Office; PFTAC = Pacific Financial Technical Assistance Centre.
2National accounts base year is the period with which other periods are compared and the period for which prices appear in the denominators of the price relationships used to
that average volume components using weights from a year in the moderately distant past.
4BCG = budgetary central government; CG = central government; EUA = extrabudgetary units/accounts; LG = local government; MPC = monetary public corporation, including central
bank; NFPC = nonfinancial public corporation; NMPC = nonmonetary financial public corporation; SG = state government; SS = social security fund; TG = territorial governments.
5Accounting standard: A = accrual accounting; C = cash accounting; CB = commitments basis accounting; Mixed = combination of accrual and cash accounting.
6Base year is not equal to 100 because the nominal GDP is not measured in the same way as real GDP or the data are seasonally adjusted.
Box A1. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies
Fiscal Policy Assumptions on the authorities’ fiscal plans, with adjustments for
The short-term fiscal policy assumptions used in the IMF staff’s assumptions.
the World Economic Outlook (WEO) are normally Brazil: Fiscal projections for 2019 take into account
based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for the deficit target approved in the budget law.
differences between the national authorities and the Canada: Projections use the baseline forecasts in the
IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions and 2019 federal budget and the latest provincial budget
projected fiscal outturns. When no official budget has updates as available. The IMF staff makes some adjust-
been announced, projections incorporate policy mea- ments to these forecasts, including for differences in
sures that are judged likely to be implemented. The macroeconomic projections. The IMF staff’s forecast
medium-term fiscal projections are similarly based on also incorporates the most recent data releases from Sta-
a judgment about the most likely path of policies. For tistics Canada’s Canadian System of National Economic
cases in which the IMF staff has insufficient informa- Accounts, including federal, provincial, and territorial
tion to assess the authorities’ budget intentions and budgetary outturns through the first quarter of 2019.
prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged Chile: Projections are based on the authorities’
structural primary balance is assumed unless indicated budget projections, adjusted to reflect the IMF staff’s
otherwise. Specific assumptions used in regard to some projections for GDP and copper prices.
of the advanced economies follow. (See also Tables B5 China: Fiscal expansion is expected for 2019 due
to B9 in the online section of the Statistical Appendix to a series of tax reforms and expenditure measures in
for data on fiscal net lending/borrowing and structural response to the economic slowdown.
balances.)1 Denmark: Estimates for 2018 are aligned with the
Argentina: Fiscal projections are based on the avail- latest official budget numbers, adjusted where appro-
able information regarding budget outturn and budget priate for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic assumptions.
plans for the federal and provincial governments, fiscal For 2019, the projections incorporate key features
measures announced by the authorities, and the IMF of the medium-term fiscal plan as embodied in the
staff’s macroeconomic projections. authorities’ Convergence Programme 2019 submitted
Australia: Fiscal projections are based on data from to the European Union.
the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the fiscal year France: Projections for 2019 and beyond are based
2019/20 budgets of the commonwealth and states, on the measures of the 2018 budget law, the multiyear
and the IMF staff’s estimates and projections. law for 2018–22, and the 2019 budget law, adjusted
Austria: Fiscal projections are based on data from for differences in assumptions on macroeconomic and
Statistics Austria, the authorities’ projections, and the financial variables, and revenue projections. Historical
IMF staff’s estimates and projections. fiscal data reflect the May 2019 revisions and update
Belgium: Projections are based on the 2019–22 of the historical fiscal accounts, debt data, and
Stability Programme and other available information national accounts.
Germany: The IMF staff’s projections for 2019
1 The output gap is actual minus potential output, as a
and beyond are based on the 2019 Stability Program
percentage of potential output. Structural balances are expressed
and data updates from the national statistical agency,
as a percentage of potential output. The structural balance is the adjusted for the differences in the IMF staff’s mac-
actual net lending/borrowing minus the effects of cyclical output roeconomic framework and assumptions concerning
from potential output, corrected for one-time and other factors, revenue elasticities. The estimate of gross debt includes
such as asset and commodity prices and output composition portfolios of impaired assets and noncore business
effects. Changes in the structural balance consequently include
effects of temporary fiscal measures, the impact of fluctuations
transferred to institutions that are winding up, as well
in interest rates and debt-service costs, and other noncyclical as other financial sector and EU support operations.
fluctuations in net lending/borrowing. The computations of Greece: Greece’s general government primary balance
structural balances are based on the IMF staff’s estimates of estimate for 2018 is based on the April 2019 Excessive
potential GDP and revenue and expenditure elasticities. (See Deficit Procedure release by Eurostat. Historical data
Annex I of the October 1993 WEO.) Net debt is calculated as
gross debt minus financial assets corresponding to debt instru-
since 2010 reflect adjustments in line with the primary
ments. Estimates of the output gap and of the structural balance balance definition under the enhanced surveillance
are subject to significant margins of uncertainty. framework for Greece.
Box A1 (continued)
Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Projections macroeconomic assumptions are adjusted for. Histori-
are based on the authorities’ medium-term fiscal projec- cal data were revised following the June 2014 Central
tions on expenditures. Bureau of Statistics release of revised macro data
Hungary: Fiscal projections include the IMF staff’s because of the adoption of the European System of
projections of the macroeconomic framework and of National and Regional Accounts (ESA 2010) and the
the impact of recent legislative measures, as well as fis- revisions of data sources.
cal policy plans announced in the 2018 budget. New Zealand: Fiscal projections are based on the fis-
India: Historical data are based on budgetary execu- cal year 2019/20 budget and the IMF staff’s estimates.
tion data. Projections are based on available information Portugal: The projections for the current year are
on the authorities’ fiscal plans, with adjustments for the based on the authorities’ approved budget, adjusted
IMF staff’s assumptions. Subnational data are incorpo- to reflect the IMF staff’s macroeconomic forecast.
rated with a lag of up to one year; general government Projections thereafter are based on the assumption of
data are thus finalized well after central government unchanged policies.
data. IMF and Indian presentations differ, particularly Puerto Rico: Fiscal projections are based on the
regarding disinvestment and license-auction proceeds, Puerto Rico Fiscal and Economic Growth Plans
net versus gross recording of revenues in certain minor (FEGPs), which were prepared in October 2018, and
categories, and some public-sector lending. are certified by the Oversight Board. In line with this
Indonesia: IMF projections are based on moderate plan’s assumptions, IMF projections assume federal aid
tax policy and administration reforms and a gradual for rebuilding after Hurricane Maria, which devastated
increase in social and capital spending over the the island in September 2017. The projections also
medium term in line with fiscal space. assume revenue losses from the following: elimination
Ireland: Fiscal projections are based on the country’s of federal funding for the Affordable Care Act start-
Budget 2019. ing in 2020 for Puerto Rico; elimination of federal
Israel: Historical data are based on government tax incentives starting in 2018 that had neutralized
finance statistics data prepared by the Central Bureau the effects of Puerto Rico’s Act 154 on foreign firms;
of Statistics. The medium-term fiscal projections are and the effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which
not in line with medium-term fiscal targets, consistent reduce the tax advantage of US firms producing in
with long experience of revisions to those targets. Puerto Rico. Given sizable policy uncertainty, some
Italy: The IMF staff’s estimates and projections are FEGP and IMF assumptions may differ, in particu-
informed by the fiscal plans included in the govern- lar those relating to the effects of the corporate tax
ment’s 2019 budget and April 2019 Economic and reform, tax compliance, and tax adjustments (fees and
Financial Document. The IMF staff assumes that the rates); reduction of subsidies and expenses, freez-
automatic value-added tax hikes for future years will ing of payroll operational costs, and improvement of
be canceled. mobility; reduction of expenses; and increased health
Japan: The projections reflect the consumption tax care efficiency. On the expenditure side, measures
rate increase in October 2019, the mitigating measures include extension of Act 66, which freezes much
included in the FY2019 budget and tax reform, government spending, through 2020; reduction of
and other fiscal measures already announced by the operating costs; decreases in government subsidies;
government. and spending cuts in education. Although IMF policy
Korea: The medium-term forecast incorporates the assumptions are similar to those in the FEGP scenario
medium-term path for public spending announced by with full measures, the IMF’s projections of fiscal
the government. revenues, expenditures, and balance are different from
Mexico: Fiscal projections for 2019 are broadly in the FEGPs’. This stems from two main differences in
line with the approved budget; projections for 2020 methodologies: first, while IMF projections are on an
onward assume compliance with rules established in accrual basis, the FEGPs’ are on a cash basis. Second,
the Fiscal Responsibility Law. the IMF and FEGPs make very different macroeco-
Netherlands: Fiscal projections for 2019–24 are nomic assumptions.
based on the authorities’ Bureau for Economic Policy Russia: Projections for 2019–24 are based on the
Analysis budget projections, after differences in new oil price rule, with adjustments by the IMF staff.
Box A1 (continued)
Saudi Arabia: The IMF staff baseline projections United Kingdom: Fiscal projections are based on
of total government revenues, except exported oil the UK’s Spring Statement 2019, with expenditure
revenues, are based on IMF staff understanding of projections based on the budgeted nominal values, but
government policies as announced in the 2019 Budget adjusted to account for the Spending Round 2019,
and Fiscal Balance Program 2019 Update. Exported and with revenue projections adjusted for differences
oil revenues are based on WEO baseline oil prices and between the IMF staff’s forecasts of macroeconomic vari-
the assumption that Saudi Arabia will overperform ables (such as GDP growth and inflation) and the fore-
the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries+ casts of these variables assumed in the authorities’ fiscal
agreement. Expenditure projections take the 2019 projections. The IMF staff’s data exclude public sector
budget and the Fiscal Balance Program 2019 Update banks and the effect of transferring assets from the Royal
as a starting point and reflect IMF staff estimates Mail Pension Plan to the public sector in April 2012.
of the latest changes in policies and economic Real government consumption and investment are part
developments. of the real GDP path, which, according to the IMF
Singapore: For fiscal year 2019, projections are based staff, may or may not be the same as projected by the
on budget numbers. For the rest of the projection UK Office for Budget Responsibility. Fiscal year GDP is
period, the IMF staff assumes unchanged policies. different from current year GDP. The fiscal accounts are
South Africa: Fiscal assumptions are based on the presented in terms of fiscal year. Projections do not take
2019 Budget Review and the special appropriation into account revisions to the accounting (including on
of July 2019 for Eskom. Nontax revenue excludes student loans) implemented on September 24, 2019.
transactions in financial assets and liabilities, as they United States: Fiscal projections are based on the
involve primarily revenues associated with realized August 2019 Congressional Budget Office baseline,
exchange rate valuation gains from the holding of for- adjusted for the IMF staff’s policy and macroeconomic
eign currency deposits, sale of assets, and conceptually assumptions. Projections incorporate the effects of tax
similar items. reform (the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, signed into law at the
Spain: For 2019, projections assume expenditures end of 2017), the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 passed
under the 2018 budget extension scenario and already in February 2018, and the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019
legislated measures, including pension and public wage passed in July 2019. Finally, fiscal projections are adjusted
increases, and the IMF staff’s projection of revenues. to reflect the IMF staff’s forecasts for key macroeconomic
For 2020 and beyond, fiscal projections are IMF staff and financial variables and different accounting treatment
projections, which assume an unchanged structural of financial sector support and of defined-benefit pension
primary balance. plans and are converted to a general government basis.
Sweden: Fiscal projections take into account the Data is compiled using SNA 2008; when translated into
authorities’ projections based on the 2019 Spring Bud- government finance statistics, this is in accordance with
get. The impact of cyclical developments on the fiscal the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014. Because
accounts is calculated using the 2014 Organisation for of data limitations, most series begin in 2001.
Economic Co-operation and Development’s elasticity
to take into account output and employment gaps.
Switzerland: The projections assume that fiscal Monetary Policy Assumptions
policy is adjusted as necessary to keep fiscal balances in Monetary policy assumptions are based on the
line with the requirements of Switzerland’s fiscal rules. established policy framework in each country. In
Turkey: The fiscal projections assume a more nega- most cases, this implies a nonaccommodative stance
tive primary and overall balance than envisaged in over the business cycle: official interest rates will
the authorities’ New Economic Program 2019–21, increase when economic indicators suggest that infla-
based partly on recent weak growth and fiscal out- tion will rise above its acceptable rate or range; they
turns and partly on definitional differences: the basis will decrease when indicators suggest inflation will
for the projections in the WEO and Fiscal Monitor is not exceed the acceptable rate or range, that output
the IMF-defined fiscal balance, which excludes some growth is below its potential rate, and that the margin
revenue and expenditure items that are included in the of slack in the economy is significant. On this basis,
authorities’ headline balance. the London interbank offered rate on six-month US
Box A1 (continued)
dollar deposits is assumed to average 2.3 percent in Indonesia: Monetary policy assumptions are in line
2019 and 2.0 percent in 2020 (see Table 1.1). The rate with the maintenance of inflation within the central
on three-month euro deposits is assumed to average bank’s targeted band.
–0.4 percent in 2019 and –0.6 percent in 2020. Japan: Monetary policy assumptions are in line with
The interest rate on six-month Japanese yen depos- market expectations.
its is assumed to average 0.0 percent in 2019 and Korea: The projections assume no change in the
–0.1 percent in 2020. policy rate in 2019–20.
Argentina: Monetary policy assumptions are con- Mexico: Monetary policy assumptions are consistent
sistent with the current monetary policy framework, with attaining the inflation target.
which targets zero base money growth in seasonally Russia: Monetary projections assume that the
adjusted terms. Central Bank of Russia is moving toward a neutral
Australia: Monetary policy assumptions are in line monetary policy stance.
with market expectations. Saudi Arabia: Monetary policy projections are based
Brazil: Monetary policy assumptions are consistent on the continuation of the exchange rate peg to the
with gradual convergence of inflation toward the US dollar.
middle of the target range. Singapore: Broad money is projected to grow in line
Canada: Monetary policy assumptions are based on with the projected growth in nominal GDP.
the IMF staff’s analysis. South Africa: Monetary policy will be moderately
China: Monetary policy is expected to remain on accommodative.
hold. Sweden: Monetary projections are in line with
Denmark: Monetary policy is to maintain the peg to Riksbank projections.
the euro. Switzerland: The projections assume no change in
Euro area: Monetary policy assumptions for euro the policy rate in 2019–20.
area member countries are in line with market Turkey: The outlook for monetary and financial con-
expectations. ditions assumes further monetary policy easing in 2019.
Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: The IMF United Kingdom: The short-term interest rate path is
staff assumes that the currency board system will based on market interest rate expectations.
remain intact. United States: The IMF staff expects the Federal
India: Monetary policy projections are consistent Open Market Committee to continue to adjust the
with achieving the Reserve Bank of India’s inflation federal funds target rate in line with the broader
target over the medium term. macroeconomic outlook.
List of Tables
Output
A1. Summary of World Output
A2. Advanced Economies: Real GDP and Total Domestic Demand
A3. Advanced Economies: Components of Real GDP
A4. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Real GDP
Inflation
A5. Summary of Inflation
A6. Advanced Economies: Consumer Prices
A7. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices
Financial Policies
A8. Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt
Foreign Trade
A9. Summary of World Trade Volumes and Prices
Flow of Funds
A14. Summary of Net Lending and Borrowing