FOREWORD

CLIMATE CHANGE IS ONE OF THE DEFINING ISSUES OF OUR TIME. It is now more certain than ever, based on
many lines of evidence, that humans are changing Earth's climate. The atmosphere and oceans have warmed,
which has been accompanied by sea level rise, a strong decline in Arctic sea ice, and other climate-related
changes. The impacts of climate change on people and nature are increasingly [Link] flooding,
heat waves, and wildfires have cost billions in damages. Habitats are undergoing rapid shifts in response to
changing temperatures and precipitation patterns.
The Royal Society and the US National Academy of Sciences, with their similar missions to

promote the use of science to benefit society and to inform critical policy debates,produced the

original Climate Change: Evidence and Causes in 2014. It was written and reviewed by a UK-US

team of leading climate scientists. This new edition, prepared by the same author team,has been

updated with the most recent climate data and scientific analyses, all of which reinforce our

understanding of human-caused climate change.

The evidence is clear. However, due to the nature of science, not every detail is ever totally settled

or certain. Nor has every pertinent question yet been answered. Scientific evidence continues to

be gathered around the world. Some things have become clearer and new insights have emerged.

For example,the period of slower warming during the 20o0s and early 201os has ended with a

dramatic jump to warmer temperatures between 2014 and 2015. Antarctic sea ice extent, which

had been increasing, began to decline in 2014, reaching a record low in 2017 that has persisted.

These and other recent observations havebeen woven into the discussions of the questions

addressed in this booklet.

Calls for action are getting louder. The 2020 Global Risks Perception Survey from the World Economic Forum
ranked climate change and related environmental issues as the top five global risks likely to occur within the next
ten [Link],the internaional community still has far to go in showing increased ambition on mitigation,
adaptation, and other ways to tackle climate change.
Scientific information is a vital component for society to make informed decisions about how to

reduce the magnitude of climate change and how to adapt to its impacts. This booklet serves as a

key reference document for decision makers, policy makers, educators, and others seeking

authoritative answers about the current state of climate-change science.

We are grateful that sixyears ago, under the leadership of Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone, former President of the National
Academy of Sciences, and Sir Paul Nurse, former President of the Royal Society,these two organizations partnered
to produce a high-level overview of climate change [Link] current Presidents of these organizations, we are
pleased to offer an update to this key reference,supported by the generosity of the Cicerone Family.

Marcia McNutt Venki Ramakrishnan

President, National Academy of Sciences President,Royal Society

FOR FURTHER READING

For more detailed discussion of the topics addressed in this

document (including references to the underlying original
research), see: NRC, 2013:Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change:
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2019:Special Report Anticipating Surprises
on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [[Link]
[[Link]
NRC,2011:Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions,
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM),
2019: Negative Emissions Technologies and Reliable Sequestration:A
Concentrations,and Impacts Over Decades to Millennia
Research Agenda [[Link] [[Link]
Royal Society 201o: Climate Change:A Summary of the Science
Royal Society, 2018:Greenhouse gas removal
[[Link]
[[Link]
change-summary-science]
[Link] Change Research Program (USGCRP), 2018:Fourth National
NRC,2010:America's Climate Choices: Advancing the
Climate Assessment Volume Il: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the
United States[[Link]
Science of Climate Change
IPCC, 2018:Global Warming of 1.5℃[[Link]
[[Link]

USGCRP,2017: Fourth National Climate Assessment Volume I:Climate Much of the original data underlying the scientific findings
Science Special Reports[[Link] discussed here are available at:
NASEM, 2016: Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of
[Link]
Climate Change[[Link]
IPCC, 2013: Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Working Group [Link]
[Link] Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis
[Link]
[[Link]
[Link]

[Link]

[Link]

[Link]

[Link]

THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES (NAS) was established to advise the United States on
scientific and technical issues when President Lincoln signed a Congressional charter in
[Link] National Research Council,the operating arm of the National Academy of Sciences
and the National Academy of Engineering, has issued numerous reports on the causes of and
potential responses to climate change. Climate change resources from the National Research
Council are availableat [Link]/climate.

THE ROYAL SOCIETY is a self-governing Fellowship of many ofthe world's most distinguished
scientists. Its members are drawn from all areas of science, engineering,and medicine. It is
the national academy of founding Charters of the 166os, is to recognise, promote, and support excellence in science,
science in the UK. The and to encourage the development and use of science for the benefit of [Link]
Society's fundamental information on the Society's climate change work is available at
purpose, reflected in its [Link]/policy/climate-change
Content

SUMMARY 2
 CLIMATE CHANGE Q&A

1 Is the climate warming? 3

2 How do scientists know that recent climate change is largely caused by human activities?......5

3 CO2is alreadyin the atmosphere naturally, so why are emissions from human activity significant?. .....6

4 What role has the Sun played in climate change in recent decades?..........7

5 What do changes in the vertical structure of atmospheric temperature-from the surface up to the stratosphere-tell us abou the causes
of recent climate change?.........8

6 Climate is always changing. Why is climate change of concern now?..9

7 Is the current level of atmospheric CO, concentration unprecedented in Earth's history?.......9

8 Is there a point at which adding more CO2 will not cause further warming?1.

9 Does the rate of warming vary from one decade to another? .11

10 Did the slowdown of warming during the 2000s to early 2010s

mean that climate change is no longer happening?. .12

THE BASICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ......B1-B8

CLIMATE CHANGE Q&A (continued)

11 If the world is warming, why are some winters and summers still very cold..13

12 Why is Arctic sea ice decreasing while Antarctic sea ice has changed little?....14

13 How does climate change affect the strength and frequency of floods, droughts, hurricanes, and tornadoes? ...15

14 How fast is sea level rising? ...16

15 What is ocean acidification and why does it matter? ..17

16 How confident are scientists that Earth will warm further over the coming century?.18

17 Are climate changes of a few degrees a cause for concern?. ..19

18 What are scientists doing to address key uncertainties in our understanding of the climate system? ........19
19 Are disaster scenarios about tipping points like "turning off the Gulf Stream"and release of methane from the Arctic a cause for
concern? 21

20 If emissions of greenhouse gases were stopped, would the climate return

to the conditions of 200 years ago? ····· 22

CONCLUSION ...23
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ....24

1
EVIDENCE & CAUSES 2020
Summary

GREENHOUSE GASES such as carbon dioxide (CO2) absorb heat (infrared radiation)

emitted from Earth's surface. Increases in the atmospheric concentrations of these

gases cause Earth to warm by trapping more of this heat. Human activities-especially

the burning of fossil fuels since the start of the Industrial Revolution-have increased

atmospheric CO2concentrations by more than 40%, with over half the increase occurring

since 1970. Since 1900, the global average surface temperature has increased by about

1℃ (1.8 °℉). This has been accompanied by warming of the ocean, a rise in sea level, a

strong decline in Arctic sea ice, widespread increases in the frequency and intensity

of heatwaves, and many other associated climate effects. Much of this warming has

occurred in the last five decades. Detailed analyses have shown that the warming

during this period is mainly a result of the increased concentrations of CO, and other

greenhouse gases. Continued emissions of these gases will cause further climate change,

including substantial increases in global average surface temperature and important

changes in regional climate. The magnitude and timing ofthese changes will depend on

many factors,and slowdowns and accelerations in warming lasting a decade or more will

continue to occur. However, long-term climate change over many decades will depend

mainly on the total amount of CO2 and other greenhouse gases emitted as a result of

human activities.

CLIMATE CHANGE

EVIDENCE & CAUSES 2020

3
 1

IS THE CLIMATE WARMING?

Yes. Earth's average surface air temperature has increased by about 1 ℃ (1.8° ℉) since 1900,
with over half of the increase occurring since the mid-1970s [Figure 1a].A wide range of other
observations (such as reduced Arctic sea ice extent and increased ocean heat content) and
indications from the natural world (such as poleward shifts of temperature-sensitive species of
fish, mammals, insects, etc.) together provide incontrovertible evidence of planetary-scale
warming.
The clearest evidence for surface warming comes from widespread thermometer records that, in some places,
extend back to the late 1gth century. Today, temperatures are monitored at many thousands of locations, over
both the land and ocean surface. Indirect estimates of temperature change from such sources as tree rings and ice
cores help to place recent temperature changes in the context of the [Link] terms of the average surface
temperature of Earth, these indirect estimates show that 1989 to 2019 was very likely the warmest 30-year period
in more than 8oo years; the most recent decade, 2010-2019,is the warmest decade in the instrumental record so
far (since 1850).

A wide range of other observations provides a more comprehensive picture of warming throughout the climate
system. For example, the lower atmosphere and the upper layers of the ocean have also warmed,snow and ice
cover are decreasing in the Northern Hemisphere, the Greenland ice sheet is shrinking, and sea level is rising [Figure
FIGURE [Link]'s global average 1b]. These measurements are made with a variety of land-, ocean-, and space-based monitoring systems, which
surface temperature has risen as gives added confidence in the reality of global-scale warming of Earth's climate.
shown in this plot of combined land
and ocean measurements from 1850
to 2019,derived from three Annual global surface temperature (1850-2019)
independent analyses of the available
data sets. The temperature changes
are relative to the global average
surface temperature of 1961-
[Link]:NOAA [Link]; data
from UK Met Office Hadley
Centre(maroon),US National
Aeronautics and Space Administration
Goddard Institue for Space Studies
(red),and US National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration National
Centers for Environmental
Information (orange).

CLIMATE CHANGE

4
FIGURE 1B.A large amount of Arctic sea ice extent in winter and summer (1979-2019)
observational evidence besides
surface temperature records shows
that Earth's climate is [Link] Northern Hemisphere June snow cover (1967-2019)
example,additional evidence of a
warming trend can be found in the
dramatic decrease in the extent of
Upper ocean heat content (1955-2019)
Arctic sea ice at its summer
minimum (which occurs in
September),the decrease in June
snow cover in the Northern
Hemisphere, the increases in the
global average upper ocean (upper
7o0 m or 2300 feet) heat content
(shown relative to the 1955-
2006average),and the rise in global
sea [Link]:NOAA [Link]

Global sea level (1955-2019)

Data: Church & White 2011,UHSLC

2
HOW DO SCIENTISTS KNOW THAT RECENT CLIMATE
CHANGE IS LARGELY CAUSED BY HUMAN ACTIVITIES?

Since the mid-18oos, scientists have known that CO, is one of the main greenhouse gases ofimportance to
Earth's energy balance. Direct measurements of CO2 in the atmosphere and in air trapped in ice show that
atmospheric CO2 increased by more than 40% from 1800 to 2019. Measurements of different forms of
carbon (isotopes, see Question 3) reveal that this increase is due to human activities. Other greenhouse
gases (notably methane and nitrous oxide) are also increasing as a consequence of human activities. The
observed global surface temperature rise since 1900 is consistent with detailed calculations of the impacts
of the observed increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases (and other human-induced changes) on Earth's
energy balance.
Different influences on climate have different signatures in climate records. These unique fingerprints are
easier to see by probing beyond a single number (such as the average temperature of Earth's surface), and
by looking instead at the geographical and seasonal patterns of climate change. The observed patterns of
surface warming, temperature changes through the atmosphere, increases in ocean heat content,increases
in atmospheric moisture,sea level rise, and increased melting of land and sea ice also match the patterns
scientists expect to see due to human activities (see Question 5).
The expected changes in climate are based on our understanding of how greenhouse gases trap heat. Both
this fundamental understanding of the physics of greenhouse gases and pattern-based fingerprint studies
show that natural causes alone are inadequate to explain the recent observed changes in climate. Natural
causes include variations in the Sun's output and in Earth's orbit around the Sun, volcanic eruptions, and
internal fluctuations in the climate system (such as El Niño and La Niña). Calculations using climate models
(see infobox, p. 20) have been used to simulate what would have happened to global temperatures if only
natural factors were influencing the climate [Link] simulations yield little surface warming, or even
a slight cooling, over the 20th century and into the 21st. Only when models include human influences on
the composition of the atmosphere are the resulting temperature changes consistent with observed
changes.

EVIDENCE & CAUSES 2020

5
 CO2 IS ALREADY IN THE ATMOSPHERE NATURALLY, SO
WHY ARE EMISSIONS FROM HUMAN ACTIVITY
3 SIGNIFICANT?

In nature, CO2 is exchanged continually between the atmosphere, plants, and animals through photosynthesis,
respiration, and decomposition, and between the atmosphere and ocean through gas exchange. A very small
amount of CO2 (roughly 1% of the emission rate from fossil fuel combustion) is also emitted in volcanic eruptions.
This is balanced by an equivalent amount that is removed by chemical weathering of rocks.

The CO2 level in 2019 was more than 40% higher than it was in the 19th century. Most of this CO2 increase

has taken place since 1970, about the time when global energy consumption accelerated. Measured

decreases in the fraction of other forms of carbon (the isotopes '4C and '3C) and a small decrease in

atmospheric oxygen concentration (observations of which have been available since 1990) show that

the rise in CO2 is largely from combustion of fossil fuels (which have low '3C fractions and no
'4C).
Deforestation and other land use changes have also released carbon from the biosphere (living world)

where it normally resides for decades to centuries. The additional CO2 from fossil fuel burning and

deforestation has disturbed the balance of the carbon cycle, because the natural processes that could

restore the balance are too slow compared to the rates at which human activities are adding CO2 to the

atmosphere. As a result, a substantial fraction of the CO2 emitted from human activities accumulates

in the atmosphere, where some of it will remain not just for decades or centuries, but for thousands of

[Link] with the CO, levels measured in air extracted from ice cores indicates that the current

concentrations are substantially higher than they have been in at least 8o0,ooo years (see
Question 6).

CLIMATE CHANGE

6
 4
WHAT ROLE HAS THE SUN PLAYED IN CLIMATE CHANGE IN
RECENT DECADES?
The Sun provides the primary source of energy driving Earth's climate system, but its
variations have played very little role in the climate changes observed in recent
[Link] satellite measurements since the late 1970s show no net increase in the
Sun's out-put, while at the same time global surface temperatures have increased
[FIGURE 2].

For periods before the onset of satellite measurements, knowledge about solar changes is less certain because the
changes are inferred from indirect sources-including the number of sunspots and the abundance of certain forms
(isotopes) of carbon or beryllium atoms, whose production rates in Earth's atmosphere are influenced by variations in
the Sun. There is evidence that the 11-year solar cycle, during which the Sun's energy output varies by roughly o.1%,
can influence ozone concentrations, temperatures,and winds in the stratosphere (the layer in the atmosphere above
the troposphere, typically from 12 to 5okm above earth's surface, depending on latitude and season). These
stratospheric changes may have a small effect on surface climate over the 11-year cycle. However, the available
evidence does not indicate pronounced long-term changes in the Sun's output over the past century, during which
time human-induced increases in CO2 concentrations have been the dominant influence on the long-term global
surface temperature increase. Further evidence that current warming is not a result of solar changes can be found in
the temperature trends at different altitudes in the atmosphere (see Question 5).

FIGURE [Link] of the Sun's

energy incident on Earth show no net
increase in solar forcing during the
past 40 years,and therefore this
cannot be responsible for warming
during that [Link] data show
only small periodic amplitude
variations associated with the Sun's
11-year [Link]:TSI data from
Physikalisch-Meteorologisches
Observatorium Davos,Switzerland,on
the new VIRGO scale from 1978to
mid-2018; temperature data for same
time period from the
HadCRUT4dataset,UK Met
Office,Hadley Centre.

CLIMATE CHANGE

8
 5

WHAT DO CHANGES IN THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE -FROM THE SURFACE UP TO THE
STRATOSPHERE-TELL US ABOUT THE CAUSES OF RECENT
CLIMATE CHANGE?

In the early 196os, results from mathematical/physical models of the climate system first
showed that

human-induced increases in CO2 would be expected to lead to gradual warming of the lower
atmosphere

(the troposphere) and cooling of higher levels of the atmosphere (the stratosphere). In
contrast, increases
in the Sun's output would warm both the troposphere and the full vertical extent of the stratosphere. At

that time, there was insufficient observational data to test this prediction, but temperature measurements

from weather balloons and satelites have since confirmed these early forecasts. It is now known that the

observed pattern of tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling over the past 40 years is broadly

consistent with computer model simulations that include increases in CO, and decreases in
stratospheric
ozone, each caused by human activities. The observed pattern is not consistent with purely natural changes

in the Sun's energy output, volcanic activity, or natural climate variations such as El Niño and
La Niña.
Despite this agreement between the global-scale patterns of modelled and observed atmospheric temperature change, there are still
some differences. The most noticeable differences are in the tropics,where models currently show more warming in the troposphere
than has been observed, and in the Arctic,where the observed warming of the troposphere is greater than in most models.

CLIMATE CHANGE

8
6
CLIMATE IS ALWAYS CHANGING. WHY IS CLIMATE CHANGE
OF CONCERN NOW?
All major climate changes, including natural ones, are disruptive. Past climate changes led to extinction of
many species, population migrations, and pronounced changes in the land surface and ocean circulation.
The speed of the current climate change is faster than most of the past events, making it more difficult for
human societies and the natural world to adapt.

The largest global-scale climate variations in Earth's recent geological past are the ice age cycles (see
infobox,p.B4), which are cold glacial periods followed by shorter warm periods [FIGURE 3]. The last few of
these natural cycles have recurred roughly every 100,ooo years. They are mainly paced by slow changes in
Earth's orbit, which alter the way the Sun's energy is distributed with latitude and by season on Earth.
These orbital changes are very small over the last several hundred years, and alone are not sufficient to
cause the observed magnitude of change in temperature since the Industrial Revolution, nor to act on the
whole [Link] ice-age timescales, these gradual orbital variations have led to changes in the extent ofice

7 sheets and in the abundance of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, which in turn have amplified the initial
temperature change.
Recent estimates of the increase in global average temperature since the end of the last ice age are 4 to
5℃ (7 to 9°℉). That change occurred over a period of about 7,000 years, starting 18,ooo years ago.
CO2has risen more than 40% in just the past 200 years, much of this since the 1970s, contributing to
human alteration of the planet's energy budget that has so far warmed Earth by about 1 ℃ (1.8 ° ℉). If the
rise in CO2continues unchecked, warming of the same magnitude as the increase out of the ice age can be
expected by the end of this century or soon after. Thisspeed of warming is more than ten times that at the
end of an ice age, the fastest known natural sustained change on a global scale.

IS THE CURRENT LEVEL OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2

CONCENTRATION UNPRECEDENTED IN EARTH'S HISTORY?
The present level of atmospheric CO2 concentration is almost certainly unprecedented in the past
million years, during which time modern humans evolved and societies [Link] atmospheric
CO2 concentration was however higher in Earth's more distant past (many millions of years ago), at
which time palaeoclimatic and geological data indicate that temperatures and sea levels were also
higher than they are today.

Measurements of air in ice cores show that for the past 800,0oo years up until the 2oth century, the atmospheric
CO2concentration stayed within the range 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm), making the recent rapid rise to more than 400
ppm over 200 years particularly remarkable [FIGURE 3]. During the glacial cycles of the past 8oo,ooo years both CO2 and
methane have acted as important amplifiers of the climate changes triggered by variations in Earth's orbit around the Sun.
As Earth warmed from the last ice age, temperature

continued
 EVIDENCE & CAUSES 2020

9
FIGURE 3. Data from ice cores have
been used to reconstruct Antarctic
temperatures and atmospheric and CO2 started to rise at approximately the same time and continued to rise in tandem from about 18,000to
CO2concentrations over the past 11,ooo years ago. Changes in ocean temperature, circulation, chemistry, and biology caused CO2to be released to
8oo,ooo years. Temperature is based the atmosphere, which combined wih other feedbacks to push Earth into an even warmer state.
on measurements of the isotopic
content of water in the Dome C ice For earlier geological times, CO2 concentrations and temperatures have been inferred from less
core. CO, is measured in air trapped direct methods. Those suggest that the concentration of CO2 last approached 400 ppm about 3
in ice, and is a composite ofthe Dome to 5 million years ago, a period when global average surface temperature is estimated to have
C and Vostok ice [Link] current been about 2 to 3.5℃higher than in the pre-industrial period. At 50 million years ago, CO2 may
CO2concentration (blue dot) is from have reached 1000 ppm, and global average temperature was probably about 10C warmer than
atmospheric measurements. The
today. Under those conditions, Earth had ittle ice, and sea level was at least 6o metres higher
cyclical pattern of temperature
variations constitutes the ice than current levels.
age/interglacial [Link] these
cycles,changes in CO2 concentrations
(in blue) track closely with changes in
temperature (in orange).As the
record shows,the recent increase in
atmospheric CO2 concentration is
unprecedented in the past 8oo,ooo
[Link] CO2concentration
surpassed 400 ppm in 2016,and the
average concentration in 2019 was
more than 411 [Link]:Based
on figure by Jeremy Shakun,data from

Lüthi et al.,2008 and Jouzel et

al.,2007.

IS THERE A POINT AT WHICH ADDING MORE CO2 WILL

8 NOT CAUSE FURTHER WARMING?

Our understanding of the physics by which CO2 affects Earth's energy balance is confirmed
by laboratory measurements,as well as by detailed satellite and surface observations of the
emission and absorption ofinfrared energy by the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases absorb
someof the infrared energy that Earth emits in so-called bands of stronger absorption that
occur at certain wavelengths. Different gases absorb energy at different wavelengths. CO,
has its strongest heat-trapping band centred at a wavelength of 15micrometres (millionths
of a metre), with absorption that spreads out a few micrometres on either [Link] are
also many weaker absorption bands. As CO2 concentrations increase, the absorption at the
cen-tre of the strong band is already so intense that it plays little role in causing additional
[Link],more energy is absorbed in the weaker bands and away from the centre

EVIDENCE & CAUSES 2020

11
of the strong band, causing the surface and lower atmosphere to warm further.

EVIDENCE & CAUSES 2020

11
 DOES THE RATE OF WARMING VARY FROM ONE DECADE TO
9 ANOTHER?
Yes. The observed warming rate has varied from year to year, decade to decade, and place to
place, as is expected from our understanding of the climate system. These shorter-term
variations are mostly due to natural causes, and do not contradict our fundamental
understanding that the long-term warming trend is primarily due to human-induced changes in
the atmospheric levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

Even as CO2 is rising steadily in the atmosphere, leading to gradual warming of Earth's surface, many natural factors
are modulating this long-term warming. Large vocanic eruptions increase the number of small particles in the
stratosphere. These particles reflect sunlight, leading to short-term surface cooling lasting typically two to three years,
followed by a slow recovery. Ocean circulation and mixing vary naturally on many time scales, causing variations in sea
surface temperatures as well as changes in the rate at which heat is transported to greater depths. For example, the
tropical Pacific swings between warm El Niño and cooler La Niña events on timescales of two to seven years. Scientists
study many different types of climate variations,such as those on decadal and multi-decadal timescales in the Pacific
and North Atlantic [Link] type of variation has its own unique characteristics. These oceanicvariations are
associated with significant regional and global shifts in temperature and rainfall patterns that are evident in the
observations.

Warming from decade to decade can also be affected by human factors such as variations in emissions of greenhouse
gases and aerosols (airborne particles that can have both warming and cooling effects) from coal-fired power plants
and other pollution sources.

These variations in the temperature trend are clearly evident in the observed temperature record [FIGURE 4]. Short-
term natural climate variations could also affect the long-term human-induced climate change signal and vice-versa,
FIGURE [Link] climate system varies
naturally from year to year and from because climate variations on different space and timescales can interact with one another. It is partly for this reason
decade to [Link] make reliable that climate change projections are made using climate models (see infobox, p.20) that can account for many different
inferences about human-induced
climate change,multi-decadal and types of climate variations and their interactions. Reliable inferences about human-induced climate change must be
longer records are typically made with a longer view,using records that cover many decades.
[Link] a "running
average"over these longer timescales
allows one to more easily see long-
term [Link] the global average
temperature for the period 1850-2019
(using the data from the UK Met Office
Hadley Centre relative to the 1961-
90average) the plots show (top) the
average and range of uncertainty for
annually averaged data;(2nd plot)the
annual average temperature for the
ten years centred on any given date;
(3rd plot) the equivalent picture for
30-year;and(4th plot)the 60-year
[Link]:Met Office Hadley
Centre,based on the HadCRUT4
dataset from the Met Office and
Climatic Research Unit(Morice et
al.,2012).

EVIDENCE & CAUSES 2020

11
10

DID THE SLOWDOWN OF WARMING DURING THE 2000S TO

EARLY 2010S MEAN THAT CLIMATE CHANGE IS NO LONGER
HAPPENING?
No. After the very warm year 1998 that followed the strong 1997-98 El Niño, the increase in
average surface temperature slowed relative to the previous decade of rapid temperature
increases. Despite the slower rate of warming, the 2000s were warmer than the 199os. The
limited period of slower warming ended with a dramatic jump to warmer temperatures
between 2014 and 2015, with all the years from 2015-2019 warmer than any preceding year
in the instrumentaI record. A short-term slowdown in the warming of Earth's surface does not
invalidate our understanding of long-term changes in global temperature arising from human-
induced changes in greenhouse gases.

Decades of slow warming as well as decades of accelerated warming occur naturally in the
climate [Link] that are cold or warm compared to the long-term trend are seen in
the observations of the past 150 years and are also captured by climate models. Because the
atmosphere stores very little heat, surface temperatures can be rapidly affected by heat
uptake elsewhere in the climate system and by changes in external influences on climate (such
as particles formed from material lofted high into the atmosphere from volcanic eruptions).

More than 90% of the heat added to the Earth system in recent decades has been absorbed
by the oceans and penetrates only slowly into deep water. A faster rate of heat penetration
into the deeper ocean will slow the warming seen at the surface and in the atmosphere, but
by itself it will not change the long-term warming that will occur from a given amount of CO2.
For example, recent studies show that some heat comes out ofthe ocean into the atmosphere
during warm El Niño events, and more heat penetrates to ocean depths in cold La Niñas. Such
changes occur repeatedly over timescales of decades and [Link] example is the major El
Niño event in 1997-98 when the globally averaged air temperature soared to the highest level
in the 20th century as the ocean lost heat to the atmosphere, mainly by evaporation.
Even during the slowdown in the rise of average surface temperature, a longer-term warming trend was still
evident (see Figure 4). Over that period,fr example, record heatwaves were documented in Europe (summer
2003), in Russia (summer 2010), in the USA (July 2012), and in Australia (January 2013).Each of the last four
decades was warmer than any previous decade since widespread thermometer measurements were
introduced in the 185os. The continuing effects of the warming climate are seen in the increasing trends in
ocean heat content and sea level, as well as in the continued melting of Arctic sea ice,glaciers and the
Greenland ice sheet.
 THE BASICS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE
Greenhouse gases affect Earth's energy balance and climate.
The Sun serves as the primary energy source for Earth's climate. Some of the incoming sunlight is
reflected directly back into space, especially by bright surfaces such as ice and clouds, and the
rest is absorbed by the surface and the atmosphere. Much of this absorbed solar energy is re-
emitted as heat (longwave or infrared radiation). The atmosphere in turn absorbs and re-radiates
heat, some of which escapes to space. Any disturbance to this balance of incoming and outgoing
energy will affect the climate. For example, small changes in the output of energy from the Sun
will affect this balance directly.
If all heat energy emitted from the surface passed through the atmosphere directly into space,
Earth's average surface temperature would be tens of degrees colder than [Link]
gases in the atmosphere, including water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane,and nitrous oxide, act
to make the surface much warmer than this because they absorb and emit heat energy in all
directions (including downwards) keeping Earth's surface and lower atmosphere warm [FIGURE
B1]. Without this greenhouse effect, life as we know it could not have evolved on our planet.
Adding more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere makes it even more effective at preventing
heat from escaping into space. When the energy leaving is less than the energy entering, Earth
warms until a new balance is established.

FIGURE B1. Greenhouse gases in the

atmosphere,including water vapour,
carbon dioxide,methane,and nitrous
oxide,absorb heat energy and emit it
in all directions (including
downwards),keeping Earth's surface
and lower atmo-sphere [Link]
more green-house gases to the
atmosphere enhances the
effect,making Earth's surface and
lower atmosphere even
[Link] based on a figure from
US Environmental Protection Agency.

EVIDENCE & CAUSES 2020

B1
BASICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

FIGURE B2. Measurements of

atmospheric CO2since 1958 from
the Mauna Loa Observatory in
Hawaii (black) and from the South
Pole (red) show a steady annual
increase in atmospheric
CO2concentration. The Greenhouse gases emitted by human activities alter Earth's energy balance and thus its climate.
measurements are made at remote
places like these because they are
Humans also affect climate by changing the nature of the land surfaces (for example by clearing
not greatly influenced by local forests for farming) and through the emission of pollutants that affect the amount and type of
processes,so therefore they are particles in the atmosphere.
representative of the background
[Link] small up-and- Scientists have determined that, when all human and natural factors are considered,Earth's
down saw-tooth pattern reflects climate balance has been altered towards warming, with the biggest contributor being increases
seasonal changes in the release and
in CO2.
uptake of CO2by [Link]:
Scripps CO, Program

Human activities have added greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.

The atmospheric concentrations of recorded at numerous other stations worldwide. Since preindustrial times, the atmospheric
carbon dioxide, methane, and concentration of CO2 has increased by over 40%, methane has increased by more than 150%,
nitrous oxide have increased and nitrous oxide has increased by roughly 20%. More than half of the increase in CO2has
significantly since the Industrial occurred since 1970. Increases in all three gases contribute to warming of Earth,with the
Revolution began. In the case of increase in CO2 playing the largest role. See page B3 to learn about the sources of human
carbon dioxide,the average emitted greenhouse gases.
concentration measured at the Scientists have examined greenhouse gases in the context of the past. Analysis ofair trapped
Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii inside ice that has been accumulating over time in Antarctica shows that the CO2
has risen from 316 parts per million
(ppm)' in 1959 (the first full year of
1 that is,for every million molecules in the air, 316 of them were CO:
data available) to more than 411
ppm in 2019 [FIGURE B2]. The same
rates of increase have since been Year

CLIMATE CHANGE

B2
 BASICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

concentration began to increase significantly in the 19th century [FIGURE B3],after staying in
the range of 260 to 280 ppm for the previous 10,000 years. Ice core records extending back
800,000 years show that during that time,CO2concentrations remained within the range of
170 to 300 ppm throughout many "ice age" cycles-see infobox, pg. B4 to learn about the ice
ages-and no concentration above 300 ppm is seen in ice core records until the past 200
years.

FIGURE B3. CO2variations during the

past 1,0oo years,obtained from analysis
of air trapped in an ice core extracted
from Antarctica (red squares),show a
sharp rise in atmospheric CO2 starting in
the late 19th century. Modern
atmospheric measurements from Mauna
Loa are superimposed in gray. Source:
figure by Eric Wolff,data from Etheridge
et al.,1996;MacFarling Meure et al.,
2006;Scripps CO2 Program.

Learn about the sources of human-emitted greenhouse gases:

Carbon dioxide (CO,) has both natural

Methane (CH,) has both human and natural Halocarbons, including chloro-
and human sources, but CO,levels are
sources, and levels have risen significantly fluorocarbons (CFCs), are chem-icals used
increasing primarily because of the
since pre-industrial times due to human as refrigerants and fire retardants. In
combustion of fossil fuels, cement
activities such as raising livestock,growing addition to being potent greenhouse
production,defor-estation (which
paddy rice, filling landfills,and using natural gases,CFCs also damage the ozone
reduces the CO2taken up by trees and
gas (which is mostly CH ,some of which may [Link] production of most CFCs has now
increases the CO, released by
be released when it is been banned,so their impact is starting to
decomposition of the detritus), and
extracted,transported, and used). decline. However,many CFC replacements
other land use [Link] in
Nitrous oxide (N2O) concentra-tions have are also potent greenhouse gases and their
CO,are the single largest contributor to
risen primarily because of agricultural concen-trations and the concentrations of
global warming.
activities such as the use of nitrogen- other halocarbons continue to increase.

based fertilisers and land use changes.

BASICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Measurements of the forms (isotopes) of carbon in the modern atmosphere show a clear

fingerprint of the addition of "old" carbon (depleted in natural radioactive '4C) coming

from the combustion of fossil fuels (as opposed to “newer" carbon coming from living

systems). In addition, it is known that human activities (excluding land use changes)

currently emit an estimated 10 billion tonnes of carbon each year, mostly by burning fossil

fuels,which is more than enough to explain the observed increase in concentration.

These and other lines of evidence point conclusively to the fact that the elevated CO2concentration in our atmosphere is the
result of human activities.

Climate records show a warming trend.

Estimating global average surface air temperature increase requires careful analysis of

millions of measurements from around the world, including fromland stations, ships,

and satellites. Despite the many complications of synthesising such data, multiple

independent teams have concluded separately and unanimously that global average surface

air temperature has risen by about 1℃ (1.8 °℉) since 1900 [FIGURE B4]. Although the

record shows several pauses and accelerations in the increasing trend, each of the last four

decades has been warmer than any other decade in the instrumental record since 1850.
Going further back in time before accurate thermometers were widely available,temperatures can be reconstructed using
climate-sensitive indicators “proxies”

Learn about the ice ages:

Detailed analyses of ocean sediments,ice
Through a combination of theory,observations, changes in global temperature.
cores, and other data show that for at
and modelling, scientists have deduced that the
least the last 2.6 million years, Earth has The average global temperature change
ice ages* are triggered by recurring variations in
gone through extended periods when during an ice-age cycle is estimated as 5℃
Earth's orbit that primarily alter the regional
temperatures were much lower than ±1℃(9°℉±2°℉).
and seasonal distribution of solar energy
today and thick blankets of ice covered
reaching Earth. These relatively small changes in *Note that in geological terms Earth has
large areas of the Northern been in an ice age ever since the Antarctic
solar energy are reinforced over thousands of
[Link] long cold spells, lasting Ice Sheet last formed about 36 million
years by gradual changes in Earth's ice cover years ago. However, in this document we
in the most recent cycles for around have used the term in its more colloquial
(the cryosphere), especially over the Northern
100,000years,were interrupted by shorter usage indicating the regular occurrence of
Hemisphere, and in atmospheric extensive ice sheets over North America
warm 'interglacial'periods, including the
composition,eventually leading to large and northern Eurasia.
past 10,000 years.
CLIMATE CHANGE

B4
 BASICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

in materials such as tree rings, ice cores, and marine sediments. Comparisons of the
thermometer record with these proxy measurements suggest that the time since the early
198os has been the warmest 40-year period in at least eight centuries,and that global
temperature is rising towards peak temperatures last seen 5,000 to 10,000 years ago in the
warmest part of our current interglacial period.

Many other impacts associated with the warming trend have become evident in recent years.
Arctic summer sea ice cover has [Link] heat content of the ocean has
increased. Global average sea level has risen by approximately 16 cm (6 inches) since 1901, due
both to the expansion of warmer ocean water and to the addition of melt waters from glaciers
and ice sheets on land. Warming and precipitation changes are alteringthe geographical ranges
of many plant and animal species and the timing of their life [Link] addition to the effects on
climate, some of the excess CO2 in the atmosphere is being taken up by the ocean, changing its
chemical composition (causing ocean acidification).

FIGURE B4. Earth's global average

surface temperature has risen,as shown
in this plot of combined land and ocean
measurements from 1850 to 2019
derived from three independent
analyses of the avail able data [Link]
top panel shows annual average values
from the three analyses,and the bottom
panel shows decadal average
values,including the uncertainty range
(grey bars) for the maroon (HadCRUT4)
dataset. The tem-perature changes are
relative to the g obal average surface
temperature,averaged from 1961-1990.
Source:NOAA [Link],based on
IPCC [Link] from UK Met Office
Hadley Centre (maroon),US National
Aeronautics and Space Administration
Goddard Institute for Space Studies
(red), and US National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration National
Centers for Environmental [Link]
(orange).

EVIDENCE & CAUSES 2020 B5

BASICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Many complex processes shape our climate.

Based just on the physics of the amount of energy that CO2 absorbs and emits, a doubling of
atmospheric CO, concentration from pre-industrial levels (up to about 560 ppm) would by itself
cause a global average temperature increase of about 1 ℃ (1.8 ° ℉). In the overall climate
system,however,things are more complex; warming leads to further effects (feedbacks) that
either amplify or diminish the initial warming.

The most important feedbacks involve various forms of water. A warmer atmosphere generally
contains more water vapour. Water vapour is a potent greenhouse gas,thus causing more
warming; its short lifetime in the atmosphere keeps its increase largely in step with
[Link], water vapour is treated as an amplifier, and not a driver, of climate change.
Higher temperatures in the polar regions melt sea ice and reduce seasonal snow cover, exposing
a darker ocean and land surface that can absorb more heat, causing further [Link]
important but uncertain feedback concerns changes in clouds. Warming and increases in water
vapour together may cause cloud cover to increase or decrease which can either amplify or
dampen temperature change depending on the changes in the horizontal extent, altitude, and
properties of clouds. The latest assessment of the science indicates that the overall net global
effect of cloud changes is likely to be to amplify warming.

The ocean moderates climate change. The ocean is a huge heat reservoir, but it is difficult to
heat its full depth because warm water tends to stay near the surface. The rate at which eat is
transferred to the deep ocean is therefore slow; it varies from year to year and from decade to
decade, and it helps to determine the pace of warming at the surface. Observations of the sub-
surface ocean are limited prior to about 1970, but since then, warming of te upper 700 m (2,300
feet) is readily apparent, and deeper warming is also clearly observed since about 1990.

Surface temperatures and rainfall in most regions vary greatly from the global average because
of geographical location, in particular latitude and continental position. Both the average values
of temperature, rainfall, and their extremes (which generally have the largest impacts on natural
systems and human infrastructure), are also strongly affected by local patterns of winds.

Estimating the effects of feedback processes, the pace of the warming, and regional climate
change requires the use of mathematical models of the atmosphere, ocean, land, and ice (the
cryosphere) built upon established laws of physics and the latest understanding of the physical,
chemical and biological processes affecting climate, and run on powerful [Link] vary
in their projections of how much additional warming to expect (depending on the type of model
and on assumptions used in simulating certain climate processes, particularly cloud formation
 and ocean mixing),
but all such models
agree that the overall
net effect of
feedbacks is to
amplify warming.

B6
CLIMA
TE
CHAN
GE
 BASICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
BASICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Human activities are changing the climate.

Rigorous analysis of all data and lines of evidence shows that most of the observed global warming
over the past 50 years or so cannot be explained by natural causes and instead requires a significant
role for the influence of human activities.
In order todiscern the human influence on climate, scientists must consider many natural variations
that affect temperature, precipitation, and other aspects of climate from local to global scale, on
timescales from days to decades and longer. One natural variation is the El Niño Southern Oscillation
(ENSO), an irregular alternation between warming and cooling (lasting about two to seven years) in
the equatorial Pacific Ocean that causes significant year-to-year regional and global shifts in
temperature and rainfall patterns. Volcanic eruptions also alter climate, in part incrasing the amount
of small (aerosol) particles in the stratosphere that reflect or absorb sunlight, leading to a short-term
surface cooling lasting typically about two to three years. Over hundreds of thousands of years, slow,
recurring variations in Earth's orbit around the Sun, which alter the distribution of solar energy
received by Earth, have been enough to trigger the ice age cycles of the past 8o0,oo0 years.

Fingerprinting is a powerful way of studying the causes of climate change. Different influences on
climate lead to different patterns seen in climate records. This becomes obvious when scientists
probe beyond changes in the average temperature of the planet and look more closely at
geographical and temporal patterns of climate change. For example, an increase in the Sun's energy
output will lead to a very different pattern of temperature change (across Earth's surface and
vertically in the atmosphere) compared to that induced by an increase in CO2concentration.
Observed atmospheric temperature changes show a fingerprint much

continued

Learn more about other human causes of climate change:

In addition to emitting greenhouse
Earth's surfaces (affecting how much reflecting sunlight back to space.
gases,human activities have also altered
sunlight is sent back into space) and Some aerosols also affect the
Earth's energy balance through,for
by changing how wet a region is. formation of clouds,which can
example:
have a warming or cooling effect
Emissions of pollutants (otherthan
Changes in land use. Changes in the way people depending on their type and
greenhouse gases). Some industrial
use land-for example,for forests,farms, or cities- location. Black carbon particles
and agricultural processes emit
can lead to both warming and cooling effects (or "soot") produced when fossil
pollutants that produce aerosols
locally by changing the reflectivity of fuels or vegetation are burned
(small droplets or particles suspended
generally have a warming effect
in the atmosphere).Most aerosols
because they absorb incoming
cool Earth by
solar radiation.

EVIDENCE & CAUSES 2020 B7

EVIDENCE & CAUSES 2020

B7
BASICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

FIGURE B5. The amount and rate of

warming expected for the 21st cen-
tury depends on thetotal amount of
greenhouse gases that humankind
[Link] project the tempera-
ture increase for a business-as-usual Global average surface temperature change
emissions scenario (in red) and closer to that of a long-term CO2 increase than to that of a fluctuating Sun alone. Scientists
aggressive emission e
reductions,falling close to zero 50
routinely
f test whether purely natural changes in the Sun, volcanic activity, or internal
years from now (in blue). Black is the climate
e variability could plausibly explain the patterns of change they have observed in
modelled estimate of past many different aspects of the climate system. These analyses have shown that the
J
[Link] solid line represents
the average of different model runs
observed
e climate changes of the past severaldecades cannot be explained just by natural
using the same emissions scenario, e
factors.
and the shaded areas provide a
measure of the spread (one u
standard deviation)between the How
O will climate change in the future?
temperature changes projected by
the different [Link] data are 4
Scientists have made major advances in the observations, theory, and modelling of Earth's
relative to a reference period (set to
climate system, and these advances have enabled them to project future climate change
zero) of [Link]: Based on
IPCC AR5 with increasing confidence. Nevertheless, several major issues make it impossible to give
precise estimates of how global or regional temperature trends will evolve decade by
decade into the future. Firstly, we cannot predict how much CO2 human activities will emit,
as this depends on factors such as particular scenario of CO2 emissions. Finally, over timescales of a decade or so, natural
how the global economy develops variability can modulate the effects of an underlying trend in temperature. Taken together,
and how society's production and all model projections indicate that Earth will continue to warm considerably more over the
consumption of energy changes in next few decades to centuries. If there were no technological or policy changes to reduce
the coming decades. Secondly,with emission trends from their current trajectory, then further globally-averaged warming of
current understanding of the 2.6 to 4.8℃ (4.7 to 8.6 °℉) in addition to that wich has already occurred would be
complexities of how climate expected during the 21st century [FIGURE B5].Projecting what those ranges will mean for
feedbacks operate, there is a range of the climate experienced at any particular location is a challenging scientific problem, but
possible outcomes, even for a estimates are continuing to improve as regional and local-scale models advance.
CLIMATE CHANGE
 11

IF THE WORLD IS WARMING,WHY ARE SOME WINTERS AND

SUMMERS STILL VERY COLD?
Global warming is a long-term trend, but that does not mean that every year will be warmer
than the previous one. Day-to-day and year-to-year changes in weather patterns will continue
to produce some unusually cold days and nights and winters and summers,even as the climate
warms.

Climate change means not only changes in globally averaged surface temperature, but also changes in atmospheric
circulation, in the size and patterns of natural climate variations, and in local weather. La Niña events shift weather
patterns so that some regions are made wetter, and wet summers are generally cooler. Stronger winds from polar
regions can contribute to an occasional colder winter. In a similar way,the persistence of one phase of an atmospheric
circulation patter known as the North Atlantic Oscilla-tion has contributed to several recent cold winters in Europe,
eastern North America, and northern Asia.

Atmospheric and ocean circulation patterns will evolve as Earth warms and will influence storm tracks and many other
aspects of the weather. Global warming tilts the odds in favour of more warm days and seasons and fewer cold days and
seasons. For example, across the continental United States in the 196os there were more daily record low temperatures
than record highs, but in the 2ooos there were more than twice as many record highs as record [Link] important
example of tilting the odds is that over recent decades heatwaves have increased in frequency in large parts of Europe,
Asia, South America, and Australia. Marine heat waves are also increasing.
12
WHY IS ARCTIC SEA ICE DECREASING WHILE ANTARCTIC SEA ICE HAS CHANGED LITTLE?
Sea ice extent is affected by winds and ocean currents as well as temperature. Sea ice in the partly-enclosed Arctic Ocean
seems to be responding directly to warming, while changes in winds and in the ocean seem to be dominating the patterns of
climate and sea ice change in the ocean around Antarctica.

Some differences in seasonal sea ice extent between the Arctic and Antarctic are due to basic
geography
and its influence on atmospheric and oceanic circulation. The Arctic is an ocean basin
surrounded largely
by mountainous continental land masses, and Antarctica is a continent surrounded by ocean. In
the
Arctic, sea ice extent is limited by the surrounding land masses. In the Southern Ocean
winter,sea ice can
expand freely into the surrounding ocean, with its southern boundary set by the coastline of
Antarctica.
Because Antarctic sea ice forms at latitudes further from the South Pole (and closer to the
equator), less
ice survives the summer. Sea ice extent in both poles changes seasonally; however, longer-term
variability
in summer and winter ice extent is different in each hemisphere, due in part to these basic
geographical
differences.

Sea ice in the Arctic has decreased dramatically since the late 1970s, particularly in summer
and autumn.
Since the satellite record began in 1978, the yearly minimum Arctic sea ice extent (which occurs in

September) has decreased by about 40% [FIGURE 5]. Ice cover expands again each Arctic
winter, but
the ice is thinner than it used to be. Estimates of past sea ice extent suggest that this decline
may be
unprecedented in at least the past 1,450 years. Because sea ice is highly reflective, warming is amplified as

the ice decreases and more sunshine is absorbed by the darker underlying ocean surface.
Sea ice in the Antarctic showed a slight increase in overall extent from 1979 to 2014,although some areas, such as that to the west of the
Antarctic Peninsula experienced a decrease. Short-term trends in

FIGURE 5. The Arctic summer sea ice

extent in 2012,(measured in
September) was a record low,shown
(in white) compared to the median
summer sea ice extent for 1979 to
2000 (in orange outline). In
2013,Arctic summer sea ice extent
rebounded somewhat, but was still
the sixth smallest extent on [Link]
2019,sea ice extent effectively tied
for the second lowest minimum in
the satellite record,along with 2007
and 2016-behind only 2012,which is
still the record [Link] 13
lowest ice extents in the satelliteera
have all occurred in the ast 13
[Link]:National Snow and Ice
Data Center
 the Southern Ocean, such as those observed,

can readily occur from natural variability of the

atmosphere, ocean and sea ice system. Changes in
surface wind patterns around the continent
contributed to the Antarctic pattern of sea ice
change; ocean factors such as the addition of cool
fresh water from melting ice shelves may also have
played a role. However, after 2014, Antarctic ice
extent began to decline, reaching a record low
(within the 40 years of satellite data) in 2017, and
remaining low in the following two years.

CLIMATE CHANGE

14
13
HOW DOES CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT THE STRENGTH AND
FREQUENCY OF FLOODS,DROUGHTS, HURRICANES,AND
TORNADOES?
Earth's lower atmosphere is becoming warmer and moister as a result of human-caused greenhouse gas
emissions. This gives the potential for more energy for storms and certain extreme weather events. Consistent
with theoretical expectations, the types of events most closely related to temperature, such as heatwaves and
extremely hot days,are becoming more likely. Heavy rainfall and snowfall events (which increase the risk of
flooding) are also generallybecoming more frequent.

As Earth's climate has warmed, more frequent and more intense weather events have both been observed

around the world. Scientists typically identify these weather events as “extreme" if they are unlike 90% or 95%

of similar weather events that happened before in the same region. Many factors contribute to any individual

extreme weather event-including patterns of natural climate variability, such as El Niño and La Niña-

making it challenging to attribute any particular extreme event to human-caused climate change. However,

studies can show whether the warming climate made an event more severe or more likely to happen.

A warming climate can contribute to the intensity of heat waves by increasing the chances of very hot days and

nights. Climate warming also increases evaporation on land, which can worsen drought and create conditions

more prone to wildfire and a longer wildfire season. A warming atmosphere is also associated with heavier

precipitation events (rain and snowstorms) through increases in the air's capacity to hold moisture. El Niño

events favour drought in many tropical and subtropical land areas, while La Niña events promote wetter

conditions in many places. These short-term and regional variations are expected to become more extreme in

a warming climate.

Earth's warmer and moister atmosphere and warmer oceans make it likely that the strongest hurricanes

will be more intense, produce more rainfall, affect new areas, and possibly be larger and [Link]

is supported by available observational evidence in the North Atlantic. In addition, sea level rise (see

Question 14) increases the amount of seawater that is pushed on to shore during coastal storms, which,

along with more rainfall produced by the storms, can result in more destructive storm surges and flooding.

While global warming is likely making hurricanes more intense, the change in the number of hurricanes

each year is quite uncertain. This remains a subject of ongoing research.

Some conditions favourable for strong thunderstorms that spawn tornadoes are expected to increase with warming, but
uncertainty exists in other factors that affect tornado formation, such as changes in the vertical and horizontal variations of
winds.

EVIDENCE & CAUSES 2020 15

 14

HOW FAST IS SEA LEVEL RISING?

Long-term measurements of tide gauges and recent satellite data show that global sea
level is rising, with the best estimate of the rate of global-average rise over the last decade
being 3.6 mm per year (0.14 inches per year). The rate of sea level rise has increased since
measurements using altimetry from space were started in 1992; the dominant factor in
global-average sea level rise since 1970 is human-caused warming. The overall observed
rise since 1902 is about 16 cm (6 inches) [FIGURE 6].

This sea level rise has been driven by expansion of water volume as the ocean warms,
melting of mountain glaciers in all regions of the world, and mass losses from the
Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. All of these result from a warming climate. Fluctuations
in sea level also occur due to changes in the amounts of water stored on land. The amount
of sea level change experienced at any given location also depends on a variety of other
factors, including whether regional geological processes and rebound of the land weighted
down by previous ice sheets are causing the land itself to rise or sink, and whether changes
in winds and currents are piling ocean water against some coasts or moving water away.
The effects of rising sea level are felt most acutely in the increased frequency and intensity of occasional storm
[Link] CO2 and other greenhouse gases continue to increase on their current trajectories, it is projected that
sea level may rise, at minimum, by a further 0.4 to 0.8 m (1.3 to 2.6 feet) by 2100,although future ice sheet
melt could make these values considerably higher. Moreover, rising sea levels will not stop in 2100; sea levels
will be much higher in the following centuries as the sea continues to take up heat and glaciers continue to
retreat. It remains difficult to predict the details of how the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets will respond to
FIGURE [Link] show that the continued warming, but it is thought that Greenland and perhaps West Antarctica will continue to lose mass,
global average sea level has risen by
whereas the colder parts of Antarctica could gain mass as they receive more snowfall from warmer air that
about 16 cm (6 inches)since the late 19th
contains more moisture. Sea level in the last interglacial (warm) period around 125,000 years ago peaked at
[Link] level is rising faster in recent
decades;measurements from tide gauges probably 5 to 10 m above the present level. During this period,the polar regions were warmer than they are
(blue) and satellites (red) indicate that today. This suggests that, over millennia, long periods of increased warmth will lead to very significant loss of
the best estimate for the average sea parts of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets and to consequent sea level rise.
level rise over the last decade is centred
on 3.6 mm per year(0.14 inches per
year).The shaded area represents the sea
level uncertainty,which has decreased as
the number of gauge sites used in
calculating the global averages and the
number of data points have increased.
Source:Shum and Kuo (2011)
 15
WHAT IS OCEAN ACIDIFICATION AND WHY DOES IT
MATTER?
Direct observations of ocean chemistry have shown that the chemicaI balance of seawater has shifted to
a more acidic state (lower pH) [FIGURE 7]. Some marine organisms (such as corals and some shellfish)
have shells composed of calcium carbonate, which dissolves more readily in acid. As the acidity of sea
water increases, it becomes more difficult for these organisms to form or maintain their shells.

CO2 dissolves in water to form a weak acid, and the oceans have absorbed about a third of the CO2
resulting from human activities, leading to a steady decrease in ocean pH levels. With increasing
atmospheric CO2,this chemical balance will change even more during the next century. Laboratory and
other experiments show that under high CO2 and in more acidic waters, some marine species have
misshapen shells and lower growth rates, although the effect varies among species. Acidification also
alters the cycling of nutrients and many other elements and compounds in the ocean, and it is likely to
shift the competitive advantage among species, with as-yet-to-be-determined impacts on marine
ecosystems and the food web.

FIGURE 7. As CO2 in the airhas

increased,there has been an increase
in the CO2 content of the surface
ocean (upperbox),and a decrease in
the seawater pH (lower
box).Source:adapted from Dore et al.
(2009) and Bates et al. (2012).
EVIDENCE & CAUSES 2020

1
7
 16

HOW CONFIDENT ARE SCIENTISTS THAT EARTH WILL

WARM FURTHER OVER THE COMING CENTURY?

Warming due to the addition of large amounts of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere can be
together absorb about half of the CO2emitted
understood
in terms of very basic properties of greenhouse gases. It will in turn lead to many changes
from human activities, but the capacities of
climate
in naturalprocesses, with a net effect of amplifyingthe [Link] size of the warming
land and ocean to store additional carbon are
that will be depends largely on the amount of greenhouse gases accumulating in the
experienced
expected to decrease with additional warming,
atmosphere
hence on theandtrajectory of emissions. If the total cumulative emissions since 1875 are kept
leading to faster increases in atmospheric
below
9o0 about (9oo billion tonnes) of carbon, then there is a two-thirds chance of keeping
gigatonnes
CO2and faster [Link] vary in their
the riseaverage
global in temperature since the pre-industrial period below 2 ℃ (3.6° ℉). However,two-
projections of how much additional warming
thirds of has
amount thisalready been emitted. A target of keeping global average temperature rise below
FIGURE 8. Ifemissions continue to expect, but all such models agree thatthe
on their present
1.5℃ (2.7°
would ℉)for even less total cumulative emissions
allow overall net effect of feedbacks is to amplify
trajectory,without
either technological or since 1875.
the warming.
regulatory
abatement,then the best Based just on the established physics of the amount of heat CO2 absorbs and emits, a doubling of
estimate
is that global average atmospheric CO2 concentration from preindustrial levels (up to about 560 ppm) would by
temperature
will warm a further 2.6 to itself,without
amplification by any other effects, cause a global average temperature increase of about 1 ℃ (1.8 °
4.8℃
(4.7 to 8.6 °℉) by the end of ℉ ).
However,the total amount of warming from a given amount of emissions depends on chains of effects
the
century(right).Land areas are
(feedbacks) that can individually either amplify or diminish the initial
projected to warm more than
warming.
ocean
areas and hence more than
The most important amplifying feedback is caused by water vapour, which is a potent
global [Link] figure on the left
the
shows projected warming with
greenhouse
CO2 [Link]
increases and warms the atmosphere, the warmer air can hold more moisture and trap
very
aggressive emissions more
the heatatmosphere.
lower in Also, as Arctic sea ice and glaciers melt, more sunlight is absorbed into
reductions.
The figures represent multi- the darker
underlying land and ocean surfaces, causing further warming and further melting of ice and
model
estimates of temperature [Link]
biggest uncertainty in our understanding of feedbacks relates to clouds (which can have both
averages
for 2081-2100 compared positive and
negative feedbacks), and how the properties of clouds will change in response to
to
[Link]:IPCC
climate change.
AR5 Other important feedbacks involve the
Change in average surface temperature (1986-2005 to 2081-2100) carbon cycle. Currently the land and oceans

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 345 7 9 11

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18
 17
ARE CLIMATE CHANGES OF A FEW DEGREES A CAUSE FOR
18 CONCERN?
Yes. Even though an increase of a few degrees in global average temperature does not
sound like much, global average temperature during the last ice age was only about 4 to
5℃(7 to 9°℉) colder than now. Global warming of just a few degrees will be associated
with widespread changes in regional and local temperature and precipitation as well as
with increases in some types of extreme weather events. These and other changes (such as
sea level rise and storm surge) will have serious impacts on human societies and the
natural world.

Both theory and direct observations have confirmed that global warming is associated with greater warming over land
than oceans, moistening of the atmosphere, shifts in regional precipitation patterns, increases in extreme weather
events, ocean acidification, melting glaciers, and rising sea levels (which increases the risk of coastal inundation and storm
surge). Already, record high temperatures are on average significantly outpacing record low temperatures, wet areas are
becoming wetter as dry areas are becoming drier, heavy rainstorms have become heavier, and snowpacks (an important
source offreshwater for many regions) are decreasing.
These impacts are expected to increase with greater warming and will threaten food production,freshwater
supplies,coastal infrastructure, and especially the welfare of the huge population currently living in low-lying [Link]
though certain regions may realise some local benefit from the warming, the long-term consequences overall will be
disruptive.

It is not only an increase of a few degrees in global average temperature that is cause for concern-the pace at which this
warming occurs is also important (see Question 6). Rapid human-caused climate changes mean that less time is availble
to allow for adaptation measures to be put in place or for ecosystems to adapt, posing greater risks in areas vulnerable to
more intense extreme weather events and rising sea levels.

WHAT ARE SCIENTISTS DOING TO ADDRESS KEY

UNCERTAINTIES IN OUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE CLIMATE
SYSTEM?
Science is a continual process of observation, understanding, modelling, testing, and
[Link] prediction of a long-term trend in global warming from increasing
greenhouse gases is robust and has been confirmed by a growing body of
[Link], understanding of certain aspects of climate change remains
[Link] include natural climate variations on decadal-to-centennial
timescales and regional-to-local spatial scales and cloud responses to climate change,
which are all areas of active research.

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20
 c EVIDENCE & CAUSES 2020
ontinued
19

CLIMATE CHANGE

20
Why are computer models used to study
climate change?
The future evolution of Earth's climate as it responds to the Comparisons of model predictions with observations identify
present rapid rate of increasing atmospheric CO2 has no precise what is well-understood and,at the same time, reveal
analogues in the past, nor can it be properly understood through uncertainties or gaps in our understanding. This helps to set
laboratory experiments. As we are also unable to carry out priorities for new research. Vigilant monitoring of the entire
deliberate controlled experiments on Earth itself, computer climate system-the atmosphere,oceans,land, and ice-is
models are among the most important tools used to study Earth's therefore critical, as the climate system may be full of surprises.
climate system.
Together, field and laboratory data and theoretical understanding are used
Climate models are based on mathematical equations that to advance models of Earth's climate system and to improve
represent the best understanding of the basic laws of physics, representation of key processes in them, especially those associated with
chemistry, and biology that govern the behaviour of the clouds, aerosols,and transport of heat into the oceans. This is critical for
atmosphere, ocean,land surface,ice,and other parts of the accurately simulating climate change and associated changes in severe
climate system, as well asthe interactions among them. The weather, especially at the regional and local scales important for policy
most comprehensive climate models, Earth-System Models, decisions.
are designed to simulate Earth's climate system with as much
Simulating how clouds will change with warming and in turn may affect
detail as is permitted by our understanding and by available
warming remains one of the major challenges for global climate models,in
supercomputers.
part because different cloud types have different impacts on climate,and
The capability of climate models has improvedsteadily since the many cloud processes occur on scales smaller than most current
the [Link] physics-based equations, the models can be models can resolve. Greater computer power is already allowing for some
tested and are successful in simulating a broad range of of these processes to be resolved in the new generation of models.
weather and climate variations, for example from individual
Dozens of groups and research institutions work on climate models,and
storms, jet stream meanders,El Niño events, and the climate of
scientists are now able to analyse results from essentially all of the world's
the last [Link] projections of the most prominent
major Earth-System Models and compare them with each other and with
features of the long-term human-induced climate change signal
observations. Such opportunities are of tremendous benefit in bringing out
have remained robust, as generations of increasingly complex
the strengths and weaknesses of various models and diagnosing the
models yield richer details of the change. They are also
causes of differences among models, so that research can focus on the
used to perform experiments to relevant processes. Differences among models allow estimates to be made
of the uncertainties in projections of future climate change.
isolate specific causes of climate change and to explore the
Additionally,large archives ofresults from many different models help
consequences of different scenarios of future greenhouse gas
scientists to identify aspects of climate change projections that are robust
emissions and other influences on climate.
and that can be interpreted in terms of known physical mechanisms.

Studying how climate responded to major changes in the past is another

way of checking that we understand how different processes work and
that models are capable of performing reliably under a wide range of
conditions.

EVIDENCE & CAUSES 2020

21
 19
ARE DISASTER SCENARIOS ABOUT TIPPING POINTS
LIKE "TURNING OFF THE GULF STREAM" AND
RELEASE OF METHANE FROM THE ARCTIC A CAUSE
FOR CONCERN?
Results from the best available climate models do not predict an abrupt change in (or collapse
of) the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which includes the Gulf Stream, in the near
future. However, this and other potential high-risk abrupt changes, like the release of methane
and carbon dioxide from thawing permafrost, remain active areas of scientific research. Some
abrupt changes are already underway, such as the decrease in Arctic sea ice extent (see
Question 12), and as warming increases, the possibility of other major abrupt changes cannot be
ruled out.

The composition of the atmosphere is changing towards conditions that have not been
experienced for millions of years, so we are headed for unknown territory, and uncertainty is
large. The climate system involves many competing processes that could switch the climate into
a different state once a threshold has been exceeded.

A well-known example is the south-north ocean overturning circulation, which is maintained by

cold salty water sinking in the North Atlantic and involves the transport of extra heat to the
North Atlantic via the Gulf Stream. During the last ice age, pulses of freshwater from the melting
ice sheet over North America led to slowing down of this overturning circulation. This in turn
caused widespread changes in climate around the Northern Hemisphere. Freshening of the
North Atlantic from the melting of the Greenland ice sheet is gradual, however, and hence is not
expected to cause abrupt changes.
Another concern relates to the Arctic, where substantial warming could destabilise methane (a greenhouse gas)
trapped in ocean sediments and permafrost, potentially leading to a rapid release of a large amount of methane. If
such a rapid release occurred, then major, fast climate changes would ensue. Such high-risk changes are considered
unliely in this century, but are by definition hard to [Link] are therefore continuing to study the possibility
of exceeding such tipping points, beyond which we risk large and abrupt changes.

In addition to abrupt changes in the climate system itself, steady climate change can cross
thresholds that trigger abrupt changes in other systems. In human systems, for example,
infrastructure has typically been built to accommodate the climate variability at the time of
construction. Gradual climate changes can cause abrupt changes in the utility of the
infrastructure-such as when rising sea levels suddenly surpass sea walls, or when thawing
permafrost causes the sudden collapse of pipelines, buildings, or roads. In natural systems, as air
and water temperatures rise, some species-such as the mountain pika and many ocean corals-

CLIMATE CHANGE

22
will no longer be able to rapidly adapt. Other species may fare better in the new conditions, causing abrupt shifts in the
survive in their current balance of ecosystems; for example, warmer temperatures have allowed more bark beetles to
habitats and will be forced to survive over winter in some regions, where beetle outbreaks have destroyed forests.
relocate (if possible) or

CLIMATE CHANGE

22
 20

IF EMISSIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES WERE

STOPPED,WOULD THE CLIMATE RETURN TO THE
CONDITIONS OF 200 YEARS AGO?

If emissions of CO2 stopped altogether, it would take many thousands of years for atmospheric
CO2to return to “pre-industrial” levels due to its very slow transfer to the deep ocean and ultimate
burial in ocean [Link] temperatures would stay elevated for at least a thousand years,
implying a long-term commitment to a warmer planet due to past and current emissions. Sea level
would likely continue to rise for many centuries even after temperature stopped increasing[FIGURE
9]. Significant cooling would be required to reverse melting of glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet,
which formed during past cold climates. The current CO2-induced warming of Earth is therefore
essentially irreversible on human timescales. The amount and rate of further warming will depend
almost entirely on how much more CO2humankind emits.

Scenarios of future climate change increasingly assume the use of technologies that can remove
green-house gases from the atmosphere. In such "negative emissions" scenarios, it assumed that at
some point

FIGURE 9. Ifglobal emissions were to

suddenly stop,it would take a long in the future,widespread effort
time for surfaceair temperatures and
the ocean to begin to cool because
will be undertaken that utilises
the excess CO2in the atmosphere
such technologies to remove
would remain there for a long time
and would continue to exert a CO2 from the atmosphere and
warming [Link] projections
show how atmospheric lower its atmospheric concentra-
CO2concentration (a), surface air
temperature(b),and ocean thermal tion, thereby starting to reverse
expansion(c)would respond following
a scenario of business-as-usual CO2-driven warming on longer
emissions ceasing in 2300 (red),a Year
scenario of aggressive emission
[Link] of such
reductions,falling close to zero 5o
technologies at scale would
years from now (orange),and two
intermediate emissions scenarios require large decreases in their
(green and blue).The small downward
tick in temperature at 2300 is caused costs. Even if such technological
by the elimination of emissions of
short-lived greenhouse fixes were practical, substantial
gases,including
[Link]:Zickfeld et al., 2013 reductions in CO2emissions

would still be essential.

CLIMATE CHANGE

22
Conclusion
This document explains that there are well-understood physical mechanisms by which changes
in the amounts of greenhouse gases cause climate changes. It discusses the evidence that the
concentrations of these gases in the atmosphere have increased and are still increasing rapidly,
that climate change is occurring, and that most of the recent change is almost certainly due to
emissions of greenhouse gases caused by human activities. Further climate change is inevitable;
if emissions of greenhouse gases continue unabated, future changes will substantially exceed
those that have occurred so [Link] remains a range of estimates of the magnitude and
regional expression of future change,but increases in the extremes of climate that can
adversely affect natural ecosystems and human activities and infrastructure are expected.

Citizens and governments can choose among several options (or a mixture of those

options) in response to this information: they can change their pattern of energy

production and usage in order to limit emissions of greenhouse gases and hence the

magnitude of climate changes; they can wait for changes to occur and accept the losses,

damage, and suffering that arise; they can adapt to actual and expected changes as much

as possible; or they can seek as yet unproven “geoengineering” solutions to counteract

some of the climate changes that would otherwise occur. Each of these options has

risks, attractions and costs, and what is actually done may be a mixture of these different

options. Different nations and communities will vary in their vulnerability and their

capacity to adapt. There is an important debate to be had about choices among these

options, to decide what is best for each group or nation, and most importantly for the

global population as a whole. The options have to be discussed at a global scale because

in many cases those communities that are most vulnerable control few of the emissions,

either past or future. Our description of the science of climate change, with both its facts

and its uncertainties, is offered as a basis to inform that policy debate.

2
3
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 EVIDENCE & CAUSES 2020

CLIMATE CHANGE

24
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Authors
The following individuals served as the primary writing team for the 2014 and 2020 editions of this document:

Eric Wolff FRS, (UK lead), University of Cambridge

John Shepherd FRS, University of
Inez Fung (NAS, US lead), University of
Southampton
California, Berkeley
Brian Hoskins FRS, Grantham Institute for Climate Keith Shine FRS, University of Reading.
Change
Susan Solomon (NAS), Massachusetts
John F.B. Mitchell FRS, UK Met Office
Institute of Technology

Kevin Trenberth,National Center for

Atmospheric Research
Tim Palmer FRS, University of Oxford John Walsh, University of Alaska, Fairbanks

Benjamin Santer (NAS), Lawrence Livermore

Don Wuebbles,University of Illinois
National Laboratory

Staff support for the 2020 revision was provided by Richard Walker,Amanda Purcell, Nancy
Huddleston,and Michael Hudson. We offer special thanks to Rebecca Lindsey and NOAA
[Link] for providing data and figure updates.

Reviewers
The following individuals served as reviewers of the 2014 document in accordance with
procedures approved by the Royal Society and the National Academy of Sciences:

Richard Alley (NAS), Department of

Jerry Meehl, Senior Scientist, National Center for
Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University
Atmospheric Research
Alec Broers FRS, Former President of the Royal
Academy of Engineering John Pendry FRS,Imperial College London

Harry Elderfield FRS, Department of Earth John Pyle FRS, Department of Chemistry,University of
Sciences, University of Cambridge Cambridge
Joanna Haigh FRS, Professor of Atmospheric Gavin Schmidt, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Physics, Imperial College London
Emily Shuckburgh, British Antarctic Survey
Isaac Held (NAS), NOAA Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory Gabrielle Walker,Journalist

John Kutzbach (NAS),Center for Climatic Andrew Watson FRS, University of East
Research, University of Wisconsin Anglia

Support
The Support for the 2014 Edition was provided by NAS Endowment Funds. We offer
sincere thanks to the Ralph [Link] Carol M. Cicerone Endowment for NAS Missions for
supporting the production of this 2020 Edition.

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