Training sets used in artificial intelligence, machine learning, genetic programming, intelligent

systems, and statistics.

In all these fields, a training set has much the same role and often used in conjunction with a test
set.
Testing set
A test set is a set of data used in various areas of information science to assess the strength and
utility of a predictive relationship.
Moreover, Test sets are used in artificial intelligence, machine learning, genetic programming,
and statistics. In all these fields, a test set has much the same role.
Accuracy of classifier: Supervised learning
In the fields of science, engineering, industry, and statistics. The accuracy of a measurement
system is the degree of closeness of measurements of a quantity to that quantity’s actual (true)
value.
Sensitivity analysis: Supervised learning
Similarly, Local Sensitivity as correlation coefficients and partial derivatives can only use, if the
correlation between input and output is linear.
Regression: Supervised learning
In statistics, regression analysis is a statistical process for estimating the relationships among
variables.
Moreover, It includes many techniques for modeling and analyzing several variables. When the
focus on the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables.
More specifically, regression analysis helps one understand how the typical value of the
dependent variable (or ‘criterion variable’) changes when any one of the independent variables
varied. Moreover, While the other independent variables held fixed.

Expert systems:
Expert system = knowledge + problem-solving methods. ... A knowledge base that captures
the domain-specific knowledge and an inference engine that consists of algorithms for
manipulating the knowledge represented in the knowledge base to solve a problem presented to
the system.
Expert systems (ES) are one of the prominent research domains of AI. It is introduced by the
researchers at Stanford University, Computer Science Department.

What are Expert Systems?

The expert systems are the computer applications developed to solve complex problems in a
particular domain, at the level of extra-ordinary human intelligence and expertise.

Characteristics of Expert Systems

 High performance
 Understandable
 Reliable
 Highly responsive

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Capabilities of Expert Systems
The expert systems are capable of −
 Advising
 Instructing and assisting human in decision making
 Demonstrating
 Deriving a solution
 Diagnosing
 Explaining
 Interpreting input
 Predicting results
 Justifying the conclusion
 Suggesting alternative options to a problem
They are incapable of −
 Substituting human decision makers
 Possessing human capabilities
 Producing accurate output for inadequate knowledge base
 Refining their own knowledge
Components of Expert Systems
The components of ES include −
 Knowledge Base
 Inference Engine
 User Interface
Let us see them one by one briefly −

Knowledge Base
It contains domain-specific and high-quality knowledge. Knowledge is required to exhibit
intelligence. The success of any ES majorly depends upon the collection of highly accurate and
precise knowledge.

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What is Knowledge?
The data is collection of facts. The information is organized as data and facts about the task
domain. Data, information, and past experience combined together are termed as knowledge.
Components of Knowledge Base
The knowledge base of an ES is a store of both, factual and heuristic knowledge.
 Factual Knowledge − It is the information widely accepted by the Knowledge Engineers
and scholars in the task domain.
 Heuristic Knowledge − It is about practice, accurate judgement, one’s ability of
evaluation, and guessing.
Knowledge representation
It is the method used to organize and formalize the knowledge in the knowledge base. It is in the
form of IF-THEN-ELSE rules.
Knowledge Acquisition
The success of any expert system majorly depends on the quality, completeness, and accuracy of
the information stored in the knowledge base.
The knowledge base is formed by readings from various experts, scholars, and the Knowledge
Engineers. The knowledge engineer is a person with the qualities of empathy, quick learning,
and case analyzing skills.
He acquires information from subject expert by recording, interviewing, and observing him at
work, etc. He then categorizes and organizes the information in a meaningful way, in the form of
IF-THEN-ELSE rules, to be used by interference machine. The knowledge engineer also
monitors the development of the ES.
Inference Engine
Use of efficient procedures and rules by the Inference Engine is essential in deducting a correct,
flawless solution.
In case of knowledge-based ES, the Inference Engine acquires and manipulates the knowledge
from the knowledge base to arrive at a particular solution.
In case of rule based ES, it −
 Applies rules repeatedly to the facts, which are obtained from earlier rule application.
 Adds new knowledge into the knowledge base if required.
 Resolves rules conflict when multiple rules are applicable to a particular case.
To recommend a solution, the Inference Engine uses the following strategies −
 Forward Chaining
 Backward Chaining
Forward Chaining
It is a strategy of an expert system to answer the question, “What can happen next?”
Here, the Inference Engine follows the chain of conditions and derivations and finally deduces
the outcome. It considers all the facts and rules, and sorts them before concluding to a solution.
This strategy is followed for working on conclusion, result, or effect. For example, prediction of
share market status as an effect of changes in interest rates.

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Backward Chaining
With this strategy, an expert system finds out the answer to the question, “Why this happened?”
On the basis of what has already happened, the Inference Engine tries to find out which
conditions could have happened in the past for this result. This strategy is followed for finding
out cause or reason. For example, diagnosis of blood cancer in humans.

User Interface
User interface provides interaction between user of the ES and the ES itself. It is generally
Natural Language Processing so as to be used by the user who is well-versed in the task domain.
The user of the ES need not be necessarily an expert in Artificial Intelligence.
It explains how the ES has arrived at a particular recommendation. The explanation may appear
in the following forms −
 Natural language displayed on screen.
 Verbal narrations in natural language.
 Listing of rule numbers displayed on the screen.
The user interface makes it easy to trace the credibility of the deductions.
Requirements of Efficient ES User Interface
 It should help users to accomplish their goals in shortest possible way.
 It should be designed to work for user’s existing or desired work practices.
 Its technology should be adaptable to user’s requirements; not the other way round.
 It should make efficient use of user input.
Expert Systems Limitations
No technology can offer easy and complete solution. Large systems are costly, require
significant development time, and computer resources. ESs have their limitations which include
−
 Limitations of the technology

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  Difficult knowledge acquisition
 ES are difficult to maintain
 High development costs
Applications of Expert System
The following table shows where ES can be applied.
Application Description

Design Domain Camera lens design, automobile design.

Diagnosis Systems to deduce cause of disease from observed

Medical Domain
data, conduction medical operations on humans.

Comparing data continuously with observed system or with

Monitoring Systems prescribed behavior such as leakage monitoring in long
petroleum pipeline.

Process Control Systems Controlling a physical process based on monitoring.

Knowledge Domain Finding out faults in vehicles, computers.

Detection of possible fraud, suspicious transactions, stock

Finance/Commerce
market trading, Airline scheduling, cargo scheduling.
Expert System Technology
There are several levels of ES technologies available. Expert systems technologies include −
 Expert System Development Environment − The ES development environment includes
hardware and tools. They are −
o Workstations, minicomputers, mainframes.
o High level Symbolic Programming Languages such as LISt Programming (LISP)
and PROgrammation en LOGique (PROLOG).
o Large databases.
 Tools − They reduce the effort and cost involved in developing an expert system to large
extent.
o Powerful editors and debugging tools with multi-windows.
o They provide rapid prototyping
o Have Inbuilt definitions of model, knowledge representation, and inference
design.
 Shells − A shell is nothing but an expert system without knowledge base. A shell
provides the developers with knowledge acquisition, inference engine, user interface, and
explanation facility. For example, few shells are given below −
o Java Expert System Shell (JESS) that provides fully developed Java API for
creating an expert system.
o Vidwan, a shell developed at the National Centre for Software Technology,
Mumbai in 1993. It enables knowledge encoding in the form of IF-THEN rules.
Development of Expert Systems: General Steps
The process of ES development is iterative. Steps in developing the ES include −
Identify Problem Domain

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  The problem must be suitable for an expert system to solve it.
 Find the experts in task domain for the ES project.
 Establish cost-effectiveness of the system.
Design the System
 Identify the ES Technology
 Know and establish the degree of integration with the other systems and databases.
 Realize how the concepts can represent the domain knowledge best.
Develop the Prototype
From Knowledge Base: The knowledge engineer works to −
 Acquire domain knowledge from the expert.
 Represent it in the form of If-THEN-ELSE rules.
Test and Refine the Prototype
 The knowledge engineer uses sample cases to test the prototype for any deficiencies in
performance.
 End users test the prototypes of the ES.
Develop and Complete the ES
 Test and ensure the interaction of the ES with all elements of its environment, including
end users, databases, and other information systems.
 Document the ES project well.
 Train the user to use ES.
Maintain the ES
 Keep the knowledge base up-to-date by regular review and update.
 Cater for new interfaces with other information systems, as those systems evolve.
Benefits of Expert Systems
 Availability − They are easily available due to mass production of software.
 Less Production Cost − Production cost is reasonable. This makes them affordable.
 Speed − They offer great speed. They reduce the amount of work an individual puts in.
 Less Error Rate − Error rate is low as compared to human errors.
 Reducing Risk − They can work in the environment dangerous to humans.
 Steady response − They work steadily without getting motional, tensed or fatigued.

Expert System.

DEFINITION - An expert system is a computer program that simulates the judgement and
behavior of a human or an organization that has expert knowledge and experience in a particular
field. Typically, such a system contains a knowledge base containing accumulated experience
and a set of rules for applying the knowledge base to each particular situation that is described to
the program. Sophisticated expert systems can be enhanced with additions to the knowledge base
or to the set of rules.

Among the best-known expert systems have been those that play chess and that assist in medical
diagnosis.

An expert system is software that attempts to provide an answer to a problem, or clarify

uncertainties where normally one or more human experts would need to be consulted. Expert
systems are most common in a specific problem domain, and is a traditional application and/or

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subfield of artificial intelligence (AI). A wide variety of methods can be used to simulate the
performance of the expert; however, common to most or all are: 1) the creation of a knowledge
base which uses some knowledge representation structure to capture the knowledge of
the Subject Matter Expert (SME); 2) a process of gathering that knowledge from the SME and
codifying it according to the structure, which is called knowledge engineering; and 3) once the
system is developed, it is placed in the same real world problem solving situation as the human
SME, typically as an aid to human workers or as a supplement to some information system.
Expert systems may or may not have learning components.

factors

The MYCIN rule-based expert system introduced a quasi-probabilistic approach called certainty
factors, whose rationale is explained below.

A human, when reasoning, does not always make statements with 100% confidence: he might
venture, "If Fritz is green, then he is probably a frog" (after all, he might be a chameleon). This
type of reasoning can be imitated using numeric values called confidences. For example, if it is
known that Fritz is green, it might be concluded with 0.85 confidence that he is a frog; or, if it is
known that he is a frog, it might be concluded with 0.95 confidence that he hops. These certainty
factor (CF) numbers quantify uncertainty in the degree to which the available evidence supports
a hypothesis. They represent a degree of confirmation, and are not probabilities in a Bayesian
sense. The CF calculus, developed by Shortliffe & Buchanan, increases or decreases the CF
associated with a hypothesis as each new piece of evidence becomes available. It can be mapped
to a probability update, although degrees of confirmation are not expected to obey the laws of
probability. It is important to note, for example, that evidence for hypothesis H may have nothing
to contribute to the degree to which Not_h is confirmed or disconfirmed (e.g., although a fever
lends some support to a diagnosis of infection, fever does not disconfirm alternative hypotheses)
and that the sum of CFs of many competing hypotheses may be greater than one (i.e., many
hypotheses may be well confirmed based on available evidence).

The CF approach to a rule-based expert system design does not have a widespread following, in
part because of the difficulty of meaningfully assigning CFs a priori. (The above example of
green creatures being likely to be frogs is excessively naive.) Alternative approaches to quasi-
probabilistic reasoning in expert systems involve fuzzy logic, which has a firmer mathematical
foundation. Also, rule-engine shells such as Drools and Jess do not support probability
manipulation: they use an alternative mechanism called salience, which is used to prioritize the
order of evaluation of activated rules.

In certain areas, as in the tax-advice scenarios discussed below, probabilistic approaches are not
acceptable. For instance, a 95% probability of being correct means a 5% probability of being
wrong. The rules that are defined in such systems have no exceptions: they are only a means of
achieving software flexibility when external circumstances change frequently. Because rules are
stored as data, the core software does not need to be rebuilt each time changes to federal and
state tax codes are announced.

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Chaining

Two methods of reasoning when using inference rules are forward chaining and backward
chaining.

Forward chaining starts with the data available and uses the inference rules to extract more data
until a desired goal is reached. An inference engine using forward chaining searches the
inference rules until it finds one in which the if clause is known to be true. It then concludes the
then clause and adds this information to its data. It continues to do this until a goal is reached.
Because the data available determines which inference rules are used, this method is also
classified as data driven.

Backward chaining starts with a list of goals and works backwards to see if there is data which
will allow it to conclude any of these goals. An inference engine using backward chaining would
search the inference rules until it finds one which has a then clause that matches a desired goal. If
the if clause of that inference rule is not known to be true, then it is added to the list of goals.

SW Architecture.

The following general points about expert systems and their architecture have been outlined:

1. The sequence of steps taken to reach a conclusion is dynamically synthesized with each new
case. The sequence is not explicitly programmed at the time that the system is built.

2. Expert systems can process multiple values for any problem parameter. This permits more
than one line of reasoning to be pursued and the results of incomplete (not fully determined)
reasoning to be presented.

3. Problem solving is accomplished by applying specific knowledge rather than specific

technique. This is a key idea in expert systems technology. It reflects the belief that human
experts do not process their knowledge differently from others, but they do possess different
knowledge. With this philosophy, when one finds that their expert system does not produce the
desired results, work begins to expand the knowledge base, not to re-program the procedures.

End user

There are two styles of user-interface design followed by expert systems. In the original style of
user interaction, the software takes the end-user through an interactive dialog. In the following
example, a backward-chaining system seeks to determine a set of restaurants to recommend:

Q. Do you know which restaurant you want to go to?

A. No

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Q. Is there any kind of food you would particularly like?

A. No

Q. Do you like spicy food?

A. No

Q. Do you usually drink wine with meals?

A. Yes

Q. When you drink wine, is it French wine?

A. Yes

Participants

There are generally three individuals having an interaction in an expert system. Primary among
these is the end-user, the individual who uses the system for its problem solving assistance. In
the construction and maintenance of the system there are two other roles: the problem domain
expert who builds the system and supplies the knowledge base, and a knowledge engineer who
assists the experts in determining the representation of their knowledge, enters this knowledge
into an explanation module and who defines the inference technique required to solve the
problem. Usually the knowledge engineer will represent the problem solving activity in the form
of rules. When these rules are created from domain expertise, the knowledge base stores the rules
of the expert system.

Inference rule

An understanding of the "inference rule" concept is important to understand expert systems. An

inference rule is a conditional statement with two parts: an if clause and a then clause. This rule
is what gives expert systems the ability to find solutions to diagnostic and prescriptive problems.
An example of an inference rule is:

If the restaurant choice includes French and the occasion is romantic,

Then the restaurant choice is definitely Paul Bocuse.

Procedure node interface

The function of the procedure node interface is to receive information from the procedures
coordinator and create the appropriate procedure call. The ability to call a procedure and receive
information from that procedure can be viewed as simply a generalization of input from the
external world. In some earlier expert systems external information could only be obtained in a

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predetermined manner, which only allowed certain information to be acquired. Through the
knowledge base, this expert system disclosed in the cross-referenced application can invoke any
procedure allowed on its host system. This makes the expert system useful in a much wider class
of knowledge domains than if it had no external access or only limited external access.

In the area of machine diagnostics using expert systems, particularly self-diagnostic applications,
it is not possible to conclude the current state of "health" of a machine without some information.
The best source of information is the machine itself, for it contains much detailed information
that could not reasonably be provided by the operator.

The knowledge that is represented in the system appears in the rulebase. In the rulebase
described in the cross-referenced applications, there are basically four different types of objects,
with the associated information:

1. Classes: Questions asked to the user.

2. Parameters: Place holders for character strings which may be variables that can be inserted
into a class question at the point in the question where the parameter is positioned.

3. Procedures: Definitions of calls to external procedures.

3. Rule nodes: Inferences in the system are made by a tree structure which indicates the
rules or logic mimicking human reasoning. The nodes of these trees are called rule nodes.
There are several different types of rule nodes.

Expert Systems/Shells. The E.S shell simplifies the process of creating a knowledge base. It is
the shell that actually processes the information entered by a user relates it to the concepts
contained in the knowledge base and provides an assessment or solution for a particular problem.

Knowledge Acquisition
Knowledge acquisition is the process used to define the rules and ontologies required for
a knowledge-based system. The phrase was first used in conjunction with expert systems to
describe the initial tasks associated with developing an expert system, namely finding and
interviewing domain experts and capturing their knowledge via rules, objects, and frame-
based ontologies.

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Expert systems were one of the first successful applications of artificial intelligence technology
to real world business problems. Researchers at Stanford and other AI laboratories worked with
doctors and other highly skilled experts to develop systems that could automate complex tasks
such as medical diagnosis. Until this point computers had mostly been used to automate highly
data intensive tasks but not for complex reasoning. Technologies such as inference
engines allowed developers for the first time to tackle more complex problems.
As expert systems scaled up from demonstration prototypes to industrial strength applications it
was soon realized that the acquisition of domain expert knowledge was one of if not the most
critical task in the knowledge engineering process. This knowledge acquisition process became
an intense area of research on its own. One of the earlier works on the topic used Batesonian
theories of learning to guide the process.
One approach to knowledge acquisition investigated was to use natural language parsing and
generation to facilitate knowledge acquisition. Natural language parsing could be performed on
manuals and other expert documents and an initial first pass at the rules and objects could be
developed automatically. Text generation was also extremely useful in generating explanations
for system behavior. This greatly facilitated the development and maintenance of expert systems.
A more recent approach to knowledge acquisition is a re-use based approach. Knowledge can be
developed in ontologies that conform to standards such as the Web Ontology Language
(OWL). In this way knowledge can be standardized and shared across a broad community of
knowledge workers. One example domain where this approach has been successful
is bioinformatics.

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Refferences
1. Elaine Rich, Kevin Knight, & Shivashankar B Nair, Artificial Intelligence, McGraw Hill, 3rd ed.,2009

References:

1) Introduction to Artificial Intelligence & Expert Systems, Dan W Patterson, PHI.,2010

2) S Kaushik, Artificial Intelligence, Cengage Learning, 1st ed.2011

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