ON THE PROGRESSION OF NATURAL DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 1

Report

ON THE PROGRESSION
OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND
THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES
2 ON THE PROGRESSION OF NATURAL
CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

ON THE PROGRESSION
OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND
THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

Report
ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC
NATURAL DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 3

CONTENTS

Part 1. Exponential Growth of Natural Disasters 4

Seismic Activity Increase 5
Increase in Deep-Focus Earthquakes 10
Activation of Volcanoes 12
Intensification of Hurricanes, Storms, and Tornadoes 20
Increase in the Number of Floods and Droughts 25
Increase in the Number of Wildfires 27
World Ocean Heating 30
Anomalous Glacial Melting in Antarctica and Greenland 35
Warming of Lower Layers of the Atmosphere 42
Changes in Upper Layers of the Atmosphere 44

Part 2. Causes of the Global Catastrophe 46

Planetary-Scale Changes in 1995 48
Displacement of the Earth’s Core in 1998 52
Interconnections Between Geodynamic and Climatic Processes 55
Changes on Other Planets of the Solar System 57
Astronomical Processes and Their Cyclicity 68
Abnormal Heating of Siberia 71
Last Cycle of the Planet Earth 73
Tectonophysical and Mathematical Modeling
of the Earth’s Demise in 2036 77

Part 3. Solution is Possible 80

Ocean Restoration 81

Conclusions 85

Appendix 1 86

References 88

Изменения на других планетах солнечной системы

Астрономические процессы и их цикличность
Аномальный нагрев Сибири
Последний цикл планеты Земля
4 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

Part 1

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH OF
NATURAL DISASTERS
According to the latest scientific research, have occurred in the last ten years, they were
there is a probability that by 2036, the isolated events. Currently, natural disasters
viability of Earth’s biosphere could be exhibit a steady upward trend, synchronous
threatened. This assumption is based on nature, and expanding geographical impact.
rigorous mathematical models and factual This report presents an analysis of the
data that indicate a possible critical state progression of increasing climatic and
of the planet. The anthropogenic factor – geodynamic changes on Earth over the
human activities that lead to an increase in past 30 years, as well as their relationship
the concentration of greenhouse gases in the with additional anthropogenic factors that
atmosphere – play a significant role in climate significantly exacerbate the climate situation
change. Besides anthropogenic impact, on the planet. The report also presents a
there are other, often underestimated factors forecast of exponential growth of cataclysms,
that significantly influence climate changes. indicating the high vulnerability of the
These include natural cycles in geodynamics, United States of America and the Russian
as well as astronomical processes, including Federation, as well as the entire world, to
solar activity and Earth’s orbital variations. the growing number and strength of extreme
These factors play a key role in long-term natural disasters. All of the analysis presented
climate cycles and can either amplify or is based on publicly available scientific data.
mitigate the anthropogenic impact on Earth’s Before addressing the new anthropogenic
climate system. factors in detail, a thorough analysis of the
In recent years, there has been a geodynamic changes affecting our planet’s
rapid increase in the number of climatic lithosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere,
catastrophes across the planet. Their and magnetosphere is necessary. Such an
momentum is characterized by exponential approach will not only outline the overall
growth. Cataclysms occur suddenly and in picture of current climatic changes but also
places where they have never happened precisely determine how human activities
before, while causing massive damages affect these complex and interrelated
and loss of human lives. Though climate processes.
and geophysical disasters on a larger scale
 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 5

Seismic Activity Increase

The Earth is experiencing an abnormal increase According to data from the International
in seismic activity: the magnitude, frequency, and Seismological Centre (ISC), there has been a
energy release of earthquakes are increasing. consistent increase in earthquake energy around
This trend is noticeable both on continents and the planet since 1990 (Figure 1).
on the ocean floor.

Figure 1
The graphs depict the earthquake energy from 1990 to 2019, based on ISC data. The author of the graphs is Dr. A. Yu. Reteyum, a
professor at the Faculty of Geography of Lomonosov Moscow State University, 2020. Source of graphs: [Link]
[Link]

Arthur Viterito, a professor at the University of with temperature lagging behind by two years.
Maryland, has observed an increase in the number Seismic and volcanic activity along mid-ocean
of earthquakes on the ocean floor along mid-ocean spreading zones leads to an increase in the rates
spreading zones since 19951 (Figure 2). Moreover, of hydrothermal vent emissions and heating of
with a correlation coefficient of 0.7, this graph the water, which, in turn, leads to the release of
corresponds to the rise in global temperatures greenhouse gases and warming of the atmosphere.

Figure 2
The simultaneous increase in the number of ocean floor earthquakes with magnitudes of 4-6 and global atmospheric temperatures.
Viterito, A. (2022) 1995: An Important Inflection Point in Recent Geophysical History. International Journal of Environmental Sciences
& Natural Resources, 29(5). [Link]
The map displays the geothermal heating of Mid-Ocean Ridges, Davies & Davies, 2010.

1
Viterito, A. (2022). 1995: An important inflection point in recent geophysical history. International Journal of Environmental Sciences & Natural Resources, 29(5). [Link]
6 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

In the modern period, in contrast to historical 2000s, there were only one or two destructive
data, an unprecedented exponential increase earthquakes with a magnitude of 6 and above per
in the frequency of significant earthquakes is year, whereas today, their number has increased
observed. Data analysis from the US Geological by eight times (Figure 3).
Survey (USGS) indicates that before the
Increase in the number of significant earthquakes
globally with magnitudes M6.0 and above

Figure 3
The number of significant earthquakes of M6 and above globally. The selection of earthquakes was carried out based on a significance
criterion of 1,000+, considering magnitude, intensity, perceptibility, and damage to identify events with significant consequences, while
excluding minor and insignificant cases.
Data source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)

The number of earthquakes is increasing in coverage of seismic events – they now extend
regions previously not known for high seismic beyond the boundaries of lithospheric plates and
activity. The maps presented in Figure 4 clearly occur within stable platforms.
demonstrate the expansion of the geographical

M4+ Earthquakes Globally during 1980-1994 M4+ Earthquakes Globally during 2009-2023

Figure 4
The map displays all earthquakes with a magnitude of 4.0 and above for two identical time periods: 1980–1994 and 2009–2023.
The maps were created considering all unique earthquakes recorded in seismic databases such as IRIS, ISC, USGS, EMCS, and
VolcanoDiscovery.
 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 7

Some people believe that the increase in the fact, since the 1970s, there have been enough
number of earthquakes is due to the expansion of seismic sensors in place to record all earthquakes
the seismic sensor network rather than an actual with a magnitude of 4.0 or higher (see Figure
increase in the number of events. Over time, the 5). Therefore, the observed trend of increasing
number and sensitivity of seismic sensors have earthquakes since 1995 is not due to technological
indeed increased. However, this has only led advancements but reflects real changes. Over
to more detailed recording of small-magnitude the last 25 years, seismic activity has indeed
earthquakes that were previously unnoticed. In increased dramatically and continues to rise.

Seismic event density chart dependent on magnitude globally

Figure 5
Magnitude

The black dots on the graph represent earthquakes of

varying magnitude in different years. Before 1964, only
earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 and higher were
1964 recorded. Since 1964 (with the installation of more sensitive
detectors), earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 and higher have
been recorded. Since 1972, earthquakes with a magnitude
1972
of 4.0 and higher have been recorded, regardless of their
location.
Year

The map in Figure 6 displays the spatial magnitude of 4.0–4.9 were already recorded
distribution of earthquakes with a magnitude worldwide before 1995, indicating the presence
of 4.0–4.9 that occurred in different regions of of seismic sensors in these areas. Since 1995,
the Earth. These maps account for all unique there has been an observed increase in the
earthquakes recorded in the seismic databases number and area of regions with high seismic
of IRIS, ISC, USGS, EMCS, and VolcanoDiscovery. activity, as well as the emergence of new regions
The map shows that the seismic events with a with a significant number of earthquakes.

M 4.0–4.9 Earthquakes Globally during 1980-1994 M4.0–4.9 Earthquakes Globally during 2009-2023

Figure 6
Earthquakes with a magnitude of 4.0-4.9 worldwide for 1980-1994 and 2009-2023. These maps account for all unique earthquakes
recorded in the seismic databases of IRIS, ISC, USGS, EMCS, and VolcanoDiscovery.
8 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

The increase in earthquakes with a magnitude

of 5.0 or higher is also reflected in the graph
depicting the number of seismic events according
to the International Seismological Centre
database (Figure 7).

Figure 7
Earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.0 and higher according to
the ISC database. The significant increase in the number of
earthquakes in 1995 is clearly visible.

According to the VolcanoDiscovery database The increase in the number of small-magnitude

([Link] in the 1980s, earthquakes suggests that the number of
there were around 10,000 earthquakes with a high-magnitude earthquakes will likely rise in the
magnitude of 3.0 or higher each year. However, future, according to Gutenberg-Richter’s Law. This
starting from 2021, there have been over 60,000 law expresses a logarithmic relationship between
earthquakes of this magnitude annually (see the number of earthquakes and their magnitude,
Figure 8). Notably, this database includes a i.e. if the number of small-magnitude earthquakes
significant set of seismic events not present in increases, then the number of large-magnitude
other databases. earthquakes is also expected to increase.

M3-M9 earthquakes globally during 1979-2023

Figure 8
The graph displays the increase in the number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 3.0 or higher worldwide, based on data from the
VolcanoDiscovery seismological database. The graph illustrates an exponential trend.
 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 9

It is important to note that no global seismic started to differ not only in quantity (see Figure 9)
databases can provide a complete and precise but also in uniqueness (see Figure 10). That means
representation of seismic activity worldwide due that there are events that are present in one or
to their differences in technical, scientific, and more databases but are absent in others. Although
practical aspects of their operations. Figure 9 the earthquake datasets should reflect the same
presents a graph of the number of earthquakes reality.
with a magnitude of at least 3.0 recorded by To obtain a more comprehensive and objective
various international seismological services since picture of seismic activity worldwide, it is essential
1979. to compare and reconcile data from different
When comparing all the events presented in sources, taking into account their peculiarities
these seismic databases, it becomes apparent and limitations.
that since 2014, the sets of seismic events have

Comparison of the number of M3+ earthquakes from

1979 to 2022 based on data from various seismic databases
Number of events

Figure 9

The graph depicts the number of earthquakes with

a magnitude of at least 3.0 recorded by various
international seismological services over a specific
period. The blue curve represents the summation of
all unique events gathered from each database. The
selection methodology is detailed in Appendix 1.

Number of M3+ unique seismic events during Number of M4+ unique seismic events during
1979-2023 reported only by indicated agencies 1979-2023 reported only by indicated agencies

Figure 10
Graphs depicting the number of unique seismic events with a magnitude of 3.0 and above (left) and with a magnitude of 4.0 and above
(right) simultaneously present only in the specified seismic services from 1979 to 2023.
10 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

Increase in Deep-Focus Earthquakes

Deep-focus earthquakes are seismic events The current increase in earthquakes is not
that occur at depths below 300 km and, in some attributed solely to the stress in the Earth’s crust
cases, reaching depths of up to 750 km beneath but rather caused by a rise in global magmatic
the Earth’s surface. Deep-focus earthquakes activity deep within the Earth. This is indicated by
occur under high pressure and temperature the exponential trend of increasing deep-focus
conditions, where the mantle material is expected earthquakes (Figure 11-12). The graph shows the
to deform plastically rather than be brittle and, exponential progression of the increasing number
therefore, should not generate earthquakes. of earthquakes at depths exceeding 300 km in
Nevertheless, such events are regularly recorded, the upper mantle of the Earth. A significant jump
and the mechanisms of their occurrence remain can be observed in 1995, similar to jumps in many
the subject of scientific discussions. other geodynamic anomalies.

M1+ deep-focus earthquakes globally during 1970-2023

DEPTH RANGES
Earthquakes count (M1+)

Year

Figure 11
Exponential increase in the number of deep-focus M1+ earthquakes globally since 1970. ISC database.
 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 11

Year

Figure 12
Heat map of deep-focus earthquakes with a magnitude of 3.0 and above. The vertical scale represents the depths of the hypocenters,
while the horizontal scale represents the years. ISC database. A notable jump in the number of events can be observed in 1995.
The highest number of deep-focus earthquakes occurs at depths within the 500-600 km range.

According to the model described in this report, The growing seismic activity in the mantle is of
deep-focus earthquakes represent explosions particular concern due to the fact that deep-focus
equivalent in power to a massive number of atomic earthquakes often trigger powerful earthquakes
bombs simultaneously detonating deep within within the Earth’s crust2.
the Earth’s mantle. The exponential growth in
the number of deep-focus earthquakes indicates
extraordinary magmatic activity of our planet.

2
Mikhaylova R.S. (2014). Strong earthquakes in the mantle and their impact in the near and far zone. Geophysical Service of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
[Link]

Mikhailova, R. S., Ulubieva, T. R., & Petrova N. V. (2021). The Hindu Kush Earthquake of October 26, 2015, with Mw=7.5, I0~7: Preceding Seismicity and Aftershock Sequence. Earthquakes of Northern
Eurasia, 24, 324–339. DOI: 10.35540/1818-6254.2021.24.31
12 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

Activation of Volcanoes

Many large cities are situated near or even is supported by the rising number of earthquakes
within volcanic calderas. For example, Kagoshima in the vicinity of volcanoes and supervolcanoes,
in Japan is located within the Aira Caldera. Naples such as Campi Flegrei in Italy (see Figure 13), Taupo
and Pozzuoli are near the Campi Flegrei caldera in New Zealand (see Figure 14), Yellowstone in the
in Italy. Furthermore, Germany hosts a massive USA (see Figure 15), Mauna Loa in Hawaii (see
supervolcano called Laacher See, which has Figure 16), Trident in Alaska (see Figure 17), and
started to show signs of activity in recent years. Sakurajima volcano within the caldera of the Aira
The increasing magma activity in the Earth’s supervolcano in Japan (see Figure 18).
depths is the primary cause of recent changes. This

Campi Flegrei Supervolcano Taupo Supervolcano

Figure 13 Figure 14
Trend in the frequency of seismic events since 2005, as reported Annual number of earthquakes in the vicinity of the Taupo
in the Campi Flegrei Bulletin by the Vesuvius Observatory INGV supervolcano. Data from the GeoNet Volcanic Alert Bulletin.
for April 2023. (Source: [Link] (Retrieved February 14, 2024, from URL [Link]
pi-flegrei-675-terremoti-aprile-2023/) nz/vabs/7tu66lDztDnIaYDG0LYSgl)

Yellowstone Supervolcano Mauna Loa Volcano

Figure 16
Figure 15
Data on earthquakes and deformations from 2010-2016 in
Increase in the annual number of earthquakes in the Yellowstone the vicinity of Mauna Loa volcano. Data provided by USGS.
supervolcano area. Graph based on USGS data. (Source: [Link]
quake-and-deformation-data-2010-2016)
 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 13

Trident Volcano Sakurajima Volcano

Figure 17 Figure 18
Earthquakes beneath the Trident volcano, Alaska, from January 1, Increase in the number of eruptions indicating rising magma
2003, to February 21, 2023. The histogram displays the number activity at Sakurajima volcano, Japan, within the caldera of
of earthquakes recorded per month. Data source: USGS/AVO, the Aira supervolcano. (Source: [Link]
Aaron Wech. (Source: [Link] features/h00194/)
increased-seismic-activity-under-trident-volcano-alaska/)

The increasing seismic activity near volcanoes deep mantle layers, which is presented in the
indicates activation of magma processes, following infographic.
suggesting that the volcanic magma chambers The maps display anomalies in the chemical
are becoming filled and are likely preparing for composition or physical properties of lava erupted
a potential eruption. Given the current atypical by various volcanoes over the past 10 years. This
magma activity within our planet’s depths, an data is based on research conducted by scientists
eruption of one supervolcano could trigger a from different countries worldwide.
chain reaction of volcanic explosions, leading to
a global catastrophe.
Volcanologists have also noticed another
anomaly: the lava ejected by volcanoes has an
atypical composition resembling magma from
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20 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

In the last decade, there has been an the ascent of magma from a depth of 10 km was
acceleration in the rise of magma from the depths accompanied by 85,000 earthquakes3. The crust
of the Earth’s crust in many volcanic regions, such thickness in this area is approximately 15 km, and
as Iceland, Italy, Mayotte Island in the Indian the seismic localization indicated that 10 km of the
Ocean, La Palma Island (Canary Islands), and crust had already been eroded by active magma,
others. This indicates an increase in volcanic leaving only 5 km before it would breach to the
activity on a global scale. surface.
Volcanologists are very concerned about The rapid ascent of magma from significant
the rapid increase in the rate at which magma depths indicates the occurrence of dangerous
is rising from the depths of the Earth. A process and unprecedented processes within the Earth.
that used to take hundreds or even thousands of The activation of volcanoes suggests that a vast
years is now happening in as little as six months amount of energy has been accumulating deep
in some regions. This dramatic acceleration was within the planet’s interior, seeking to erupt
observed in the Bransfield Strait in 2021, where outward.

Intensification of Hurricanes, Storms, and Tornadoes

In 2023, for the first time in history, a Category the ocean from 1975 to 2020. Since 1995, both
5 tropical cyclone, the highest category in terms of indicators have shown a consistent increase,
strength, formed in all oceanic basins. Almost every signaling the warming of the global ocean and
hurricane in this category set records for strength, the atmosphere above it. However, before 1995,
duration, and rapid intensification compared to both indicators were decreasing. It is worth noting
hurricanes in the previous years4. that since 1995, significant geodynamic processes
For example, Hurricane “Otis,” which have also been observed in the Earth’s interior,
transformed from a regular tropical storm into the including the changes, such as: a 3.5-fold increase
most destructive Category 5 hurricane in just 12 in the speed of north magnetic pole drift, the shift
hours. Such a disastrous increase in hurricane wind in the planet’s axis of rotation, and an increase in
speed is attributed to the anomalous warming of the planet’s rotation speed, as well as an increase
the ocean and the anthropogenic factor, which will in the number and strength of earthquakes on
be described below. Due to this ocean heating, the ocean floor and deep-focus earthquakes (to
more moisture is released into the atmosphere. be covered in more details). Thus, the increase
A significant increase in atmospheric moisture in ocean water temperature and evaporation are
content over the ocean has been recorded since related both to the anthropogenic factor and to
1995 (Figure 19). The graph indicates the changes the rise of magma from the mantle, influencing the
in ocean evaporation and air temperature over temperature and circulation of water in the ocean.
3
Cesca, S., Sugan, M., Rudzinski, Ł., Vajedian, S., Niemz, P., Plank, S., Petersen, G., Deng, Z., Rivalta, E., Vuan, A., Plasencia Linares, M. P., Heimann, S., & Dahm, T. (2022). Massive earthquake swarm
driven by magmatic intrusion at the Bransfield Strait, Antarctica. Communications Earth & Environment, 3(1). [Link]
4
Mersereau, D. (2023, September 9). The Weather Network, A world first, every tropical ocean saw a Category 5 storm in 2023. [Link]
world-first-every-tropical-ocean-saw-a-category-5-hurricane-cyclone-in-2023
ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 21

Atmospheric moisture content

Figure 19
The interannual variation of atmospheric
moisture content (1) in kg/m2 and air temperature
(2) in °C over the World Ocean from 1979 to 2019.

(Source: Malinin V. N. & Vaynovsky P. A. (2021).

Trends of moisture exchange components in
the ocean-atmosphere system under global
warming conditions”, Reanalysis-2. Sovremennye
problemy distancionnogo zondirovaniâ Zemli iz
kosmosa [Current problems in remote sensing
of the Earth from space] 18(3), 9-25.
DOI: 10.21046/2070–7401–2021–18–3–9–25)

The increase in air humidity due to ocean There is a significant rise in the number of
evaporation leads to an intensification of tornadoes: from approximately 45 tornadoes per
hydrometeorological events, such as tropical year in the 1970s to more than 800 per year from
hurricanes, storms, tornadoes, abnormal 2014 to 2023. This means that Europe’s average
temperatures, precipitation, and floods. number of tornadoes per year has increased
In Europe, there is an increasing trend in the 18-fold. Tornadoes and hurricanes are occurring
number of tornadoes from 1970 to 2023, as in regions where they have never happened
depicted in Figure 20, based on data from the before, resulting in significant economic losses.
European Severe Weather Database (ESWD).

Increase in the number of tornadoes in Europe

Figure 20
Graph depicting the annual number of tornadoes in Europe. Data source: European Severe Weather Database (ESWD)
22 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

In the last decade, convective storms 21, shows exponential growth in the number of
accompanied by tornadoes, hail, heavy rainfall, billion-dollar storms in the United States from 1981
and thunderstorms have become a predominant to 2023. From 1981 to 1990, there were 2 or less
phenomenon and caused significant damages in of such storms per year. However, there has been
North America and Australia. a sharp increase in recent years, with 19 such
An analysis of NOAA data, presented in Figure storms occurring in 2023 alone.

U.S. Billion-Dollar Severe Storms

Figure 21
Graph depicting the number of severe storms causing damages exceeding one billion dollars in the United States. Data source: NOAA

The damage from convective storms has

become comparable to that from the tropical
hurricanes (Figure 22). The main trend visible on
the graph is the increase in insurance losses for
both categories. This indicates that the cost of
these disasters continues to rise.
According to the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), over the
span of 10 years starting from 1990, convective
storms have caused about $40 billion in damage
to the United States. However, in the last decade,
the total losses increased sixfold, surpassing
$240 billion (Figure 23), and in 2023 alone, the
storm-related losses set a new record, amounting Figure 22
to $54B. The dynamics of losses from convective storms and tropical
hurricanes in the United States from 2001 to 2021. The graph
displays two lines: the orange line represents tropical hurricanes,
and the blue line represents severe convective storms.
Data source: Aon (Catastrophe Insight)
ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 23

Figure 23
Increase in losses from severe storms exceeding one billion dollars in the United States.
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters. (2024).
([Link] DOI: 10.25921/stkw-7w73

The graph displays lines of various colors, each representing a specific year. The year 2023, indicated by the red line,
experienced the highest damage from severe storms, exceeding 50 billion dollars. The graph covers the period from
1980 to 2023 and is adjusted for inflation (CPI). The graph was last updated on January 9, 2024.
24 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

According to AON’s report 5 on climate Global severe convective

disasters, the most significant economic losses storm losses 5-year periods 2013-2022
in Europe over the past 10 years were caused
by severe convective storms. These storms
turned out to be more destructive than winter
storms, which were traditionally considered as
the primary threat to the region.
According to the Swiss Re Institute’s research6,
severe convective storms have recently become
the largest source of economic losses among the
secondary hazards (high-frequency events with
damage ranging from low to medium severity,
such as hailstorms, flash floods, tornadoes,
landslides, droughts, and wildfires). From 2018 Figure 24
to 2022, economic losses worldwide from severe Comparison of global economic losses from convective storms
for two five-year periods: 2013-2017 and 2018-2022. Based on
convective storms amounted to 177 billion USD, Swiss Re Institute data
representing a 60% increase compared to the
previous five years (Figure 24). This indicates
a growing frequency and impact from these
disasters.

5
Weather, Climate and Catastrophe Insight. (2023). (Source: [Link] p.42)
6
Swiss Re Institute. Natural catastrophes in focus: Tornados, hail and thunderstorms. (Source: [Link]
 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 25

Increase in the Number of Floods and Droughts

There has also been a significant increase in increased to 1,500, which means there were 6
the number of severe floods around the world times as many floods. The data indicate that the
(Figure 25). Severe floods are defined as those frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation
that cause significant harm to both people and events are increasing, which is one of the leading
infrastructure. While in the 1970s, there were only causes of flooding.
260 severe floods over a period of 10 years, the
number of floods between 2014 and 2023 had

Total number of large-scale floods globally

Figure 25
Number of large-scale floods globally from 1960 to 2022. Data source: The International Disaster Database (EM-DAT)

Total number of countries affected by floods

Moreover, the number of territories
suffering from floods has increased
significantly (Figure 26). While
approximately 20 countries were
annually affected by floods in the
1970s, the situation has drastically
changed since the 2000s, with over
80 countries facing the impacts of
floods each year – a fourfold increase.

Figure 26
Number of countries affected by floods since 1960. Data source: The International
Disaster Database (EM-DAT)
26 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

The frequency of abnormal precipitation 2019 and 2023 (Figure 27). This means that
events and record-breaking downpours is also anomalous precipitation has become 44 times
increasing worldwide. According to the European more common. Abnormal precipitation is an event
Severe Weather Database (ESWD), there were that exceeds the norm in intensity, duration, or
661 cases of abnormal precipitation in Europe frequency.
between 2000 and 2004, but 29,031 between

Abnormal precipitation events in Europe

2000-2004 2019-2023

Figure 27
Abnormal precipitation events in Europe: a) 2000-2004, b) 2019-2023.
Data source: European Severe Weather Database (ESWD)
The map shows the distribution of abnormal precipitation in Europe over two five-year periods: 2000-2004 and 2019-2023. On the
map of Europe, blue dots mark the locations where these events occurred. The more dots in a region, the more abnormal precipitation
events have occurred there.

The number of droughts is also growing at In 2023, many countries experienced

record levels. According to the UN7, the number catastrophic droughts that caused enormous
of droughts globally has increased by 29% over economic losses.
the past 20 years. The UN report says that in
2022 and 2023, 1.84 billion people worldwide, or
nearly a quarter of the world’s population, were
living under drought conditions. A record-high
258 million people are already facing ‘severe
hunger’ due to the drought, and some are on
the brink of starvation.

7
UN data [Link]
 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 27

Increase in the Number of Wildfires

Lately, extinguishing natural wildfires has escape from the depths (see Figures 28-29).
become increasingly challenging, even with As a result, these fires are extremely difficult
modern firefighting equipment. According to the to extinguish. Settlements and entire cities are
scientist Petr Vladimirovich Lyushvin8, these fires engulfed in flames. Fires break out even in the
occur in the fault zones of the Earth’s crust where northern region that are covered with snow.
hydrogen, methane, and other flammable gasses

Figure 28 Figure 29
Coincidence of the locations of wildfires, earthquakes, crustal Coincidence of the locations of wildfires, earthquakes, crustal
faults, and magnetic anomalies in the Ural region. faults, and magnetic anomalies in Southern Siberia.
(a) - Wildfires in the summer of 2009; (a) - Wildfires in the summer of 2009;
(b) - Wildfires in the summer of 2010; (b) - Wildfires in the summer of 2010;
(c) - Major faults in the Earth’s crust and the main directions of (c) - Earthquake epicenters from 1991 to 2017;
fold structures; (d) - Magnetic field anomalies (blue shades indicate positive, red
(d) - Earthquake epicenters from 1995 to 2013; shades indicate negative deviations);
(e) - Magnetic field anomalies (blue shades indicate positive, red (e) - Major faults and the main directions of fold structures;
shades indicate negative deviations). (f ) - Wildfires in the Baikal region, arrows indicating the
Source: [Link] localization of fires near faults in the Earth’s crust.
Source: [Link]

8
Reference:
Lushvin, P. (2018). Natural Plain Fires and How to Minimize Them. Presentation at the 26th meeting of the All-Russian Interdisciplinary Seminar-Conference of the Geological and Geographical
Faculties of Moscow State University “Planet Earth System,” January 30 — February 2, 2018.
Lushvin, P., Buyanova, M. (2021). Development of Ice Cover in Water Areas during Methane. International Journal of Geosciences, 12(9), 927-940.
[Link]
Lushvin, P., Buyanova, M. (2021). History of Observations of Seismogenic Phenomena in the Atmosphere and Formalization of Their Decryption. International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic
Sciences, 5(1), 13-19. [Link]
28 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

The area affected by extreme wildfires has sharply increased in various countries. Over the past 3
years, there has been unprecedented growth in the wildfire-affected areas in Canada, Australia, Spain,
the United States, and Europe (see Figures 30-34).

Figure 30 Figure 31
Annual Area Burned in Canada. Loss of tree cover due to wildfires in Spain from 2001 to 2022.
Source: Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (CIFFC) Source: Global Forest Watch

Figure 32
Area of burned forest ecosystems due to wildfires in New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory (dark blue), Victoria (red), Queensland (light
blue), South Australia (black), Western Australia (purple), and Tasmania (green) for fire-prone years from 1930 to 2019.
Source: Canadell, J., Meyer, C., Cook, G., Dowdy, A., Briggs, P., Knauer, J., Pepler, A. & Haverd, V. (2021). Multi-decadal increase of forest burned area
in Australia is linked to climate change. Nature Communications, 12, 6921 (2021). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-27225-4.
 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 29

Figure 33
Total acres burned by fires in California. In
2020, the state set a record with over 3.1 million
acres burned.
Source: California Department of Forestry and
Fire Protection (CAL FIRE)

Figure 34
Cumulative area burnt in Europe by wildfires in 2022
(red) and annual average burnt between 2006-2021
(blue).
Source: European Forest Fire Information System

Another important factor contributing to the of water has decreased in more than 50% of large
spread of fires is droughts caused by the escape natural lakes and reservoirs9. This phenomenon
of water along cracks and faults, which take place is particularly paradoxical given the disastrous
everywhere due to the deformation of the Earth’s increase in the number of severe flooding, unless
crust caused by the increased seismic activity as the hydrodynamic changes in the upper parts of
well the change in the equatorial and poleward the Earth’s crust caused by tectonic activities are
diameters of the planet. According to satellite taken into account.
observations and climatic and hydrological
models, over the past three decades, the volume

9
Yao, F., Livneh, B., Rajagopalan, B., Wang, J., Jean-François Crétaux, Wada, Y., & Berge-Nguyen, M. (2023). Satellites reveal widespread decline in global lake water storage. Science, 380(6646),
743–749. [Link]
30 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

World Ocean Heating

Ocean heating leads to an increase According to scientists’ estimates, to achieve

in the frequency and scale of extreme the current rate of ocean warming would require
hydrometeorological events, including record as much energy as it would be released if 7 atomic
floods, typhoons, and abnormal precipitation. bombs, like those dropped on Hiroshima, were
As of 2020, ocean warming has increased released every second for a year. This fact raises
by 450% over the past 30 years (see Figure 35). the following rational question: “What is the source
Research shows that while oceans were steadily of such a significant amount of energy?”
warming from 1955 to 1986, in the recent decades,
the warming has rapidly accelerated.

Global ocean content change in the upper 2,000 m

Figure 35
Changes in heat content in the upper 2000 meters of the World Ocean.
Source: Cheng, L., Abraham, J., Zhu, J., Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J., Boyer, T., Locarnini, R., Zhang, B., Yu, F., Wan, L., Chen, X., Song,
X., Liu, Y., & Mann, M. E. (2020). Record-Setting Ocean Warmth Continued in 2019. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 37(2), 137–142.
[Link]

The anomalous ocean heating is caused both by warming at depth. A group of researchers from the
the anthropogenic factor and by the impact of magma, United States found that over the last 60 years,
the ascent of which has been intensified since 1995. the average ocean depths have warmed 15 times
The oceanic crust, which is thinner than the continental faster than in the previous 10,000 years10. And this
crust, allows magma to heat the ocean floor more progression is accelerating each year. A vast amount
effectively, consequently warming the ocean itself. of energy is required to raise temperatures at such
There are several indications that the ocean is depths where sunlight does not penetrate.

Rosenthal, Y., Linsley, B. K., & Oppo, D. W. (2013). Pacific Ocean Heat Content During the Past 10,000 Years. Science, 342(6158), 617–621. [Link]
10

Oppo, D. (2013, October 31). Is Global Heating Hiding Out in the Oceans? [Link]
 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 31

One of the factors contributing to the heating The data showing increase in temperature at
of ocean waters is the release of methane. Huge the ocean’s deep layers indicate that the ocean
methane reserves in the form of gas hydrates is heating both from the top and from below.
(clathrates) are found on the seabed of the Significant warming trends are observed in two
seas of the Arctic Ocean. Under the influence deep areas of the Argentine Basin12 at depths
of geothermal heating, these accumulations are greater than 4,500 meters: 0.02°C ± 0.01°C per
melting, releasing methane in gaseous form. Such decade between 2009 and 2019.
methane releases occur in bursts and are called A temperature increase of 0.02°C ± 0.01°C
methane plumes or mega-bursts. An anomalous represents a colossal amount of energy required
methane burst in the Arctic region was detected to heat such a volume of cold water at the ocean
in the atmosphere by NOAA satellites in April floor.
201411 . According to the geological structure An all-time historical record for ocean surface
of the seabed, areas with elevated methane temperatures was broken in 2023 (Figure 36).
concentrations match the fault lines of the Arctic The year 2024 has already surpassed all the
mid-ocean ridges. Earthquakes indicate the records set in 2023, and it appears that the trend
activity of faults, shifts in magma chambers, and of subsequent changes may exceed the ranges
the release of heat fluxes. presented on the graph.

Figure 36
Highest Ocean Temperatures on Record, Daily Average Sea Surface Temperature, 1981-2024.
Data source: Dataset NOAA OISST V2.1 | Image Credit: [Link], Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Dataset.
NOAA OISS

11
Yurganov, L. N., Leifer, I., & Sunil Vadakkepuliyambatta. (2017). Evidences of accelerating the increase in the concentration of methane in the atmosphere after 2014: satellite data for the Arctic.
Sovremennye problemy distancionnogo zondirovaniâ Zemli iz kosmosa [Current problems in remote sensing of the Earth from Space] 14(5), 248–258.
[Link]
12
Meinen, C. S., Perez, R. C., Dong, S., Piola, A. R., & Campos, E. (2020). Observed Ocean Bottom Temperature Variability at Four Sites in the Northwestern Argentine Basin: Evidence of Decadal
Deep/Abyssal Warming Amidst Hourly to Interannual Variability During 2009–2019. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(18). [Link]
32 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

Another evidence for the heating of the more than 4,000,000 square kilometers (larger
world’s ocean waters is the occurrence of ocean than the size of India) and the water temperatures
heatwaves, which are localized, long-lasting areas were 5-6 degrees Celsius above average in some
of heated ocean water. A particular example of places (Figure 37). The blob traveled across the
these are blobs, which cover huge areas of surface ocean from Alaska to Mexico for three years until
water and have unusually high temperatures. 2016 (Figure 38). This phenomenon negatively
Since 1995, the number of blobs has increased affected the marine ecosystem and climate in the
significantly 13, and they have become more region.
common in different parts of the world’s ocean, One of the theories behind the origin of this
including those off the coasts of New Zealand, blob is most likely the active volcanism off the
South West Africa, and the southern Indian Ocean. coast of Alaska and the Cobb14 magma plume,
One of the most well-known and largest blobs which heated the water at the bottom of the ocean
was formed in the Gulf of Alaska in 2013 and spread and forced this huge volume of heated water to
rapidly across the Pacific. It covered an area of rise to the surface.

Figure 37
Map shows position of sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly,
aka The Blob, in the northeast Pacific Ocean in March 2014.
(Image provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division
at Boulder, Colorado)

Figure 38
Map shows how the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly
had moved and spread along the West Coast by March 2015.
(Image provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division
at Boulder, Colorado)

Laufkötter, C., Zscheischler, J., & Frölicher, T. L. (2020). Science, 369(6511), 1621–1625. [Link]
13

Chadwick, J., Keller, R., Kamenov, G., Yogodzinski, G., & Lupton, J. (2014). The Cobb hot spot: HIMU-DMM mixing and melting controlled by a progressively thinning lithospheric lid. Geochemistry,
14

Geophysics, Geosystems, 15(8), 3107–3122. [Link]

 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 33

In December 2019, a blob appeared east School of Geography, Environment and Earth
of New Zealand in the South Pacific, with Sciences at Victoria University in Wellington,
temperatures 6°C above average on certain said: “It’s the biggest patch of above average
days. The blob covered an area of more than warming on the planet right now. Normally the
one million square kilometers, which is nearly 1.5 temperatures there are about 15 °C, but at the
times the size of Texas, or four times larger than moment, they are about 20 °C”15.
New Zealand (Figure 39). It was reported to be The cause of this blob formation was likely
the largest blob in the world ocean at the time. It the activity of an ancient volcanic plateau off the
was also the second largest event ever recorded coast of New Zealand16.
in the region. James Renwick, the head of the

Figure 39
Sea surface temperature anomaly in the South Pacific on December 25, 2019.
Source: Morton, A. (2019, December 27). Hot blob: vast patch of warm water off New Zealand coast puzzles scientists. The Guardian.
[Link]
scientists

15
Morton, A. (2019, December 27). Hot blob: vast patch of warm water off New Zealand coast puzzles scientists. The Guardian. [Link]
unusual-patch-of-warm-water-off-new-zealand-coast-puzzles-scientists
16
Gase, A., Bangs, N. L., Saffer, D. M., Han, S., Miller, P., Bell, R., Arai, R., Henrys, S. A., Shiraishi, K., Davy, R., Frahm, L., & Barker, D. (2023). Subducting volcaniclastic-rich upper crust supplies fluids
for shallow megathrust and slow slip. Science Advances, 9(33). [Link]
34 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

The theory that the emergence of marine and destruction of ecosystems. As magmatic activity
heatwaves and oceanic blobs is caused by the heating increases, the number and size of such ocean
of deep waters at the ocean floor is aligned with new heatwaves will increase.
research conducted by scientists from the Ocean One of the significant effects from marine
University of China17. They have shown that a third heatwaves is changes in the parameters of ocean
of marine heatwaves do not manifest themselves in currents, for example, slowing down of the Gulf Stream
any way at the ocean surface, and about half do not from May to August 2010. According to geologist
manifest themselves at all stages of their life cycle. The James Kamis, the rise of magma, which caused the
annual number of these subsurface marine heatwaves volcanic eruption, likely heated the water on the
has significantly increased due to ocean warming over ocean floor.18 As a result, according to observations,
the past three decades. The fact that a significant in May 2010, a massive volume of hot water surfaced
fraction of marine heatwaves is not even observed at above the tectonic zone beneath Greenland, which is
the ocean surface probably indicates that they cannot believed to have blocked the path of the Gulf Stream
be caused by warmth from the atmosphere. for some time (Figure 40). This led to a temporary
Therefore, in addition to the anthropogenic factor, change in weather patterns in Europe and North
the cause of the formation of marine heatwaves, America. A more considerable weakening or stopping
including blobs, is the underwater volcanic activity of the Gulf Stream could lead to major changes in the
and magma rising from the Earth’s interior to the climate, ecosystems, and economies of Europe and
oceanic crust, which began in 1995. This leads to the North America.
heating of deep water layers that rise vertically from At present, due to the anthropogenic factor and
the ocean floor to the surface, forming anomalously increased magmatic activity that contributes to the
heated areas of the ocean. Blobs in the ocean lead heating of the deep ocean layers, the Gulf Stream
to changes in atmospheric pressure, anomalies in is in danger of weakening, halting or disappearing
winds and currents, general heating of the ocean completely.

Figure 40
The map of ocean surface temperatures for May 2010, illustrating
the 2009-2010 marine heatwave in the North Atlantic Ocean
(shown in red).
Source: Kamis, J. E. (n.d.). Geologically Induced Northern
Atlantic Ocean “Warm Blob” Melting Southern Greenland Ice
Sheet. Plate Climatology. [Link]
geologically-induced-northern-atlantic-ocean-warm-blob-melt-
ing-southern-greenland-ice-sheet?rq=Alaska

17
Sun, D., Li, F., Jing, Z., Hu, S., & Zhang, B. (2023). Frequent marine heatwaves hidden below the surface of the global ocean. Nature Geoscience, 16(12), 1099–1104. [Link]
s41561-023-01325-w
18
Kamis, J. E. (n.d.). Geologically Induced Northern Atlantic Ocean “Warm Blob” Melting Southern Greenland Ice Sheet. Plate Climatology. [Link]
duced-northern-atlantic-ocean-warm-blob-melting-southern-greenland-ice-sheet?rq=Alaska
 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 35

Anomalous Glacial Melting in Antarctica and Greenland

Over the past 29 years, the loss of ice on major 86% of all ice losses in Antarctica occur in
ice sheets has accelerated. The rate of ice loss in West Antarctica, where there is rapid retreat and
Greenland is now 400% higher, while in Antarctica thinning of the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers
it is 25% higher than in the early 1990s19. (Rignot et al. 2014; Shepherd et al. 2002) (Figures
Let’s consider the example of Antarctica. 41-43).
Studies show that since 1992, Antarctica has The surprising fact is that glaciers are melting
lost nearly three trillion tons of ice20, which is predominantly in the western part of the continent
equivalent to 1.2 billion Olympic-size swimming only.
pools. The Pine Island Glacier, which is considered
Antarctica’s most vulnerable point, loses about 45
billion tons of ice each year21. Antarctica’s second
most prominent glacier is the Thwaites Glacier
giant ice shelf.

Intense melting of Antarctica’s glaciers since 1995

Figure 41

Ice mass and sea level changes in Antarctica during 1992-2017. Purple curve is the average rate of ice loss in Antarctica. Green curve
is the rate of ice loss in West Antarctica. Yellow curve is the positive trend, that is, ice gain in East Antarctica.
Source: The IMBIE Team. (2018). Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017. Nature, 558, 219–222.
[Link]

19
Otosaka, I. N., Horwath, M., Mottram, R. & Nowicki, S. (2023). Mass Balances of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets Monitored from Space. Surveys in Geophysics, 44:1615–1652.
DOI: 10.1007/s10712-023-09795-8
20
The IMBIE Team. (2018). Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017. Nature, 558, 219–222. [Link]
21
Seroussi, H., Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Larour, E., Schodlok, M., & Khazendar, A. (2014). Sensitivity of the Dynamics of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, to climate forcing for the
next 50 years. The Cryosphere, 8(5), 1699–1710. [Link]
36 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

Figure 42 Figure 43
The NASA map illustrates significant surface warming of the West The map depicts the amount of ice accumulated or lost by
Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Antarctic Peninsula. The warming is Antarctica from 2003 to 2019. Purple and dark red colors indicate
considerably more intense than previously reported, exceeding high and moderate rates of ice loss along the Antarctic coast,
0.1 degrees Celsius in a decade, with the most significant impact respectively, while blue colors indicate rates of ice growth inland.
observed during winter and spring. The image incorporates Source: Smith, B., Fricker, H. A., Gardner, A. S., Medley, B., Nilsson,
temperature data collected over a 50-year period from 1957 to J., Paolo, F. S., Holschuh, N., Adusumilli, S., Brunt, K., Csatho, B.,
2006 (NASA/GSFC Scientific Visualization Studio 2008) Harbeck, K., Markus, T., Neumann, T., Siegfried, M. R., & Zwally, H.
[Link] J. (2020). Pervasive ice sheet mass loss reflects competing ocean
tic-warming-trends and atmosphere processes. Science, 368(6496), 1239–1242.
[Link]

It is interesting to note that West Antarctica

is one of the largest volcanic regions on Earth,
where more than 140 volcanoes have been found
under ice (Figure 44).
Based on the aeromagnetic observations,
scientists from Germany and the British Antarctic
Survey have created a map of the geothermal
heat flow in West Antarctica and discovered a
zone of inflow of large amounts of geothermal
heat from the Earth’s interior under the Thwaites
Glacier 22,23. The geothermal flow under West
Figure 44
Antarctica corresponds to zones of increased
Map of “active” (currently erupting) or “dormant” (potentially
glacial melting. active) volcanoes on the Antarctic continent located along the
extensive West Antarctic Rift System. This active fault zone
breaks up the continent and allows suboceanic hot magma to
flow up the faults, thus feeding the volcanoes.
[Link]
ing-from-deep-earth-geological-heat-flow-not-global-warming

22
Damiani, T. M., Jordan, T. A., Ferraccioli, F., Young, D. A., & Blankenship, D. D. (2014). Variable crustal thickness beneath Thwaites Glacier revealed from airborne gravimetry, possible implications
for geothermal heat flux in West Antarctica. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 407, 109–122. [Link]
23
Dziadek, R., Ferraccioli, F., & Gohl, K. (2021). High geothermal heat flow beneath Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica inferred from aeromagnetic data. Communications Earth & Environment,2(16).
[Link]
 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 37

A team of scientists from the University of Antarctica characterized by high volcanic activity.
Rhode Island and the University of East Anglia The volcanism in Marie Byrd is attributed to a
discovered a new factor in the rapid melting of hotspot where a mantle plume (a stream of hot
the Pine Island Glacier in Antarctica: a previously magma rising from deep within the Earth’s mantle)
unknown active volcano buried deep under the reaches the Earth’s crust and causes volcanic
ice24. The scientists discovered volcanic activity activity. According to scientists’ calculations,
beneath the ice sheet, showing 25 times more the heat from the mantle plume is heating the
thermal energy than that of a dormant volcano. rock and ice layers above it with almost as much
NASA scientists have identified a massive energy as the Yellowstone supervolcano, which
magma plume called Marie Byrd25 beneath is 150 mW per square meter and reaches 180 mW
West Antarctica, with an area of almost one per square meter in the fault zones. That’s about
million square kilometers (Figure 45). Marie three times as much heat as in the neighboring
Byrd Land Volcanic Province is a region in West rock layers.

The Marie Byrd magma plume in West Antarctica

Figure 45
Presence of a hot mantle plume beneath the Marie Byrd region, West Antarctica, indicated by seismic tomography. (Helene Seroussi
et al./JGR Solid Earth; Business Insider)
Source: Seroussi, H., Ivins, E. R., Wiens, D. A., & Bondzio, J. (2017). Influence of a West Antarctic mantle plume on ice sheet basal
conditions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 122(9), 7127–7155. [Link]

24
Loose, B., Naveira Garabato, A. C., Schlosser, P., Jenkins, W. J., Vaughan, D., & Heywood, K. J. (2018). Evidence of an active volcanic heat source beneath the Pine Island Glacier. Nature
Communications, 9(2431). [Link]
25
Seroussi, H., Ivins, E. R., Wiens, D. A., & Bondzio, J. (2017). Influence of a West Antarctic mantle plume on ice sheet basal conditions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 122(9), 7127–7155.
[Link]
38 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

Scientists from the University of Bremen, the It is evident that compared to the previous
German Institute for Polar and Marine Research, studies in 2019 (left map), significant changes
and the British Antarctic Survey, have confirmed occurred in 2021 (right map), and the geothermal
that the melting of major glaciers occurs in areas heat flow has increased. This indicates an increase
with elevated heat flow from the Earth’s interior in the heat flow coming from magma plumes in
(Figure 46). the Earth’s interior.
2019 2021

Figure 46
Distribution of geothermal heat flow in 2019 (left) and 2021 (right).
Source: Dziadek, R., Ferraccioli, F., & Gohl, K. (2021). High geothermal heat flow beneath Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica inferred
from aeromagnetic data. Communications Earth & Environment, 2(16). [Link]

A new international study has revealed that the heat from volcanic and magmatic activity, which has
Earth’s crust is rising in some parts of West Antarctica significantly increased since 1995 and continues to
at one of the fastest rates ever recorded. The uplift rate rise.
in the Amundsen Sea opposite the Pine Island Glacier Directly off the coast of West Antarctica, there is
is 41 millimeters per year, which is three times faster anomalous heating of the deep waters of the Weddell
than in other areas26. Even in places like Iceland and Sea27. While the upper 700 meters of water show little
Alaska, where rapid uplift is observed, the typical uplift warming, there is a consistent increase in temperature
is around 20-30 millimeters per year. Thus, scientists in deeper regions. On one side, the Weddell Sea
have concluded that the mantle beneath West borders the West Antarctic Rift, and on the other side,
Antarctica is hotter and more fluid than previously it is adjacent to an underwater volcanic ridge with the
expected. South Sandwich Islands. It is worth noting that the
Therefore, the intense melting of the Antarctic ice region of the South Sandwich Islands is one of the
sheet is attributed both to the water heating due to most seismically active areas on Earth. Here, seismic
the anthropogenic factor as well as the geothermal activity is rapidly increasing, indicating magma uplift.
26
Barletta, V. R., Bevis, M., Smith, B. E., Wilson, T., Brown, A., Bordoni, A., Willis, M., Khan, S. A., Rovira-Navarro, M., Dalziel, I., Smalley, R., Kendrick, E., Konfal, S., Caccamise, D. J., Aster, R. C.,
Nyblade, A., & Wiens, D. A. (2018). Observed rapid bedrock uplift in Amundsen Sea Embayment promotes ice-sheet stability. Science, 360(6395), 1335–1339. [Link]
27
Strass, V. H., Rohardt, G., Kanzow, T., Hoppema, M., & Boebel, O. (2020). Multidecadal warming and density loss in the Deep Weddell Sea, Antarctica. Journal of Climate, 33(22), 9863–9881.
[Link]
 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 39

Let us examine the melting of the Greenland accounted for nearly half of the total loss. Despite
ice sheet. Currently, the ice in Greenland is colder atmospheric conditions in the Greenland
melting faster than at any time over the last region, the rate of ice loss remained high after
12,000 years28. Figure 47 shows a graph depicting this period. In July 2019 alone, Greenland’s ice
an exponential increase in Greenland’s ice loss sheet lost 197 billion metric tons of ice, roughly
from 1992 to 2018. Greenland’s ice loss started equivalent to about 80 million Olympic-size
in the 1990s, but the period from 2006 to 2012 swimming pools.

Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Figure 47
Total cumulative Greenland ice sheet mass change, partitioned into two components: surface and dynamic (the portion of the glacier
mass loss caused by its movement and iceberg calving). Change relative to 1992.
Data source: IMBIE (Shepherd et al., 2020), Credit: IMBIE/ESA/NASA.

Rivers are flowing and lakes are appearing known reason for the formation of these lakes is
on the surface of the Greenland ice sheet, but geothermal heat and meltwater flowing through
surprisingly, rivers and lakes have also been the cracks. These lakes form because the ice
discovered beneath the ice sheet, which is about sheet is now melting from both the top and the
1.5 kilometers thick. Around 60 subglacial lakes bottom.
have been discovered to date29. The commonly

28
Briner, J. P., Cuzzone, J. K., Badgeley, J. A., Young, N. E., Steig, E. J., Morlighem, M., Schlegel, N.-J., Hakim, G. J., Schaefer, J. M., Johnson, J. V., Lesnek, A. J., Thomas, E. K., Allan, E., Bennike,
O., Cluett, A. A., Csatho, B., de Vernal, A., Downs, J., Larour, E., & Nowicki, S. (2020). Rate of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet will exceed Holocene values this century. Nature, 586(7827),
70–74. [Link]
29
Bowling, J. S., Livingstone, S. J., Sole, A. J., & Chu, W. (2019). Distribution and dynamics of Greenland subglacial lakes. Nature Communications, 10(2810). [Link]
40 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

A group of American scientists, led by Professor tomography data, researchers discovered a mantle
Ralph von Frese from Ohio State University, used plume in Greenland’s interior.
gravitational research to estimate the thickness of The magma flow rises from the core-mantle
the crust beneath Greenland. They discovered that boundary, approaching the Earth’s surface
the most significant glacier melting occurs in the directly under the central part of the island. This
northern part of the island, where the Earth’s crust is phenomenon is likely to serve as an additional
thinnest. In this region, an elevated geothermal heat factor contributing to ice melt. It is in this area that
flow is observed due to the rising mantle plume30. the largest number of subglacial lakes are located
Furthermore, a group of scientists led by (Figures 48-49).
researchers from the Schmidt Institute of Physics
of the Earth, Irina Rogozhina and Alexey Petrunin31,
reached the same conclusion. Based on seismic

Figure 49
Illustration by Ivan Kulakov, Russian geophysicist, expert in
geophysics and geodynamics, corresponding member of the
Russian Academy of Sciences.
Source: [Link]
id=1444325

Figure 48
Seismic tomography of Greenland at 150 km depth. Low-velocity areas corresponding to regions of increased temperature are
highlighted in red. The dotted line represents one of the potential plume ‘track’ reconstructions with age indicated in millions of years.
Blue dots are areas where radar survey results showed that water is present under the glacier.
Source: Rogozhina, I., Petrunin, A. G., Vaughan, A. P. M., Steinberger, B., Johnson, J. V., Kaban, M. K., Calov, R., Rickers, F., Thomas,
M., & Koulakov, I. (2016). Melting at the base of the Greenland ice sheet explained by Iceland hotspot history. Nature Geoscience, 9,
366–369. [Link]

30
van der Veen, C. J., Leftwich, T., von Frese, R., Csatho, B. M., & Li, J. (2007). Subglacial topography and geothermal heat flux: Potential interactions with drainage of the Greenland ice sheet.
Geophysical Research Letters, 34(12). [Link]
31
Rogozhina, I., Petrunin, A. G., Vaughan, A. P. M., Steinberger, B., Johnson, J. V., Kaban, M. K., Calov, R., Rickers, F., Thomas, M., & Koulakov, I. (2016). Melting at the base of the Greenland ice sheet
explained by Iceland hotspot history. Nature Geoscience, 9, 366–369. [Link]
 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 41

The scientists have calculated the theoretical obtained similar results later. Studies by scientists
heat flow from this magma plume and found that this from Tohoku University in Japan provided further
heat is enough to warm the base of the glacier to the insight into the structure of the magma plume
point of melting the ice. Many researchers, including beneath Greenland34 (Figures 50-51).
those utilizing machine learning techniques32,33,

Magmatic plume beneath Greenland, model

Figure 50
Comparison of the seismic velocity structure and the geothermal heat flux. Blue and red colors indicate high and low velocities of
longitudinal waves, respectively. Red shows low-velocity zones that are associated with molten flows from the magma plume.
Source: Toyokuni, G., Matsuno, T., & Zhao, D. (2020). P Wave Tomography Beneath Greenland and Surrounding Regions: 1. Crust and
Upper Mantle. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 125(12). [Link]

Figure 51
Diagram of the main tectonic features and magmatic plumes beneath
Greenland and its surroundings. The Greenland plume has two branches
that supply heat to the active zones of Iceland, Jan Mayen, and the
geothermal zone of Svalbard. Molten rocks rise from the core-mantle
boundary, accelerating ice melting in central Greenland and raising
sea levels.
Data source: Toyokuni, G., Matsuno, T., & Zhao, D. (2020).
[Link]

32
Rezvanbehbahani, S., Stearns, L. A., Kadivar, A., Walker, J. D., & van der Veen, C. J. (2017). Predicting the Geothermal Heat Flux in Greenland: A Machine Learning Approach. Geophysical Research
Letters, 44(24), 12,271-12,279. [Link]
33
Rysgaard, S., Bendtsen, J., Mortensen, J., & Sejr, M. K. (2018). High geothermal heat flux in close proximity to the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream. Scientific Reports, 8(1344). [Link]
s41598-018-19244-x
34
Toyokuni, G., Matsuno, T., & Zhao, D. (2020). P Wave Tomography Beneath Greenland and Surrounding Regions: 1. Crust and Upper Mantle. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 125(12).
[Link]
42 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

Thus, according to the studies by Japanese, plumes have been active under West Antarctica
Russian, and German scientists, in Greenland, and Central Greenland since 1995.
same as in Antarctica, a magma plume is also The purpose of providing this information
located in the central part, which is a possible is to draw attention to the abnormal amount
cause of the accelerated sliding of Greenland’s of accumulated energy inside the planet. The
glaciers in recent decades. energy level is so high that it has activated magma
It is likely that the world’s two largest glacial plumes, which have begun to melt glaciers at an
regions, Antarctica and Greenland, are melting exponential rate. This process is accelerating,
not only due to the anthropogenic factor but also which indicates a rise in planetary magmatic
additionally due to an increase in geothermal activity, which could pose an additional serious
heat from the Earth’s interior, and the heat is threat to human life.
intensifying, indicated by the exponential trends
in glacier melting. This suggests that magma

Warming of Lower Layers of the Atmosphere

Unprecedented warming of the lower layers of 2023, a new historical temperature record was
the atmosphere is a consequence of the world set. According to Samantha Burgess, the Deputy
ocean heating. Figure 52 presents a graph Director of the Copernicus Climate Change
illustrating the unprecedented rise in average Service (CCCS), 2023 became the hottest year,
temperatures worldwide from 1850 to 2023. In in at least the past 100,000 years35.

Figure 52
Global surface temperature increase versus the average during the 1850-1900 pre-industrial period (°C)
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF

35
Source: [Link]
 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 43

NASA’s top climatologist, Gavin Schmidt, between the incoming solar radiation and the
expressed concern about the record-high outgoing radiation from Earth (Figure 53). The
temperatures in 2023. According to Gavin, these graph indicates that the Earth’s atmosphere is
temperatures not only surpassed the previous accumulating energy exponentially. This is due
records, but also indicated the presence of to increased heat from greenhouse gas emissions
unknown heating processes that exceeded typical and, additionally, from the rise of magma from the
long-term trends of previous models. He stated, depths, as well as due to a decrease in the function
“The long term trends we understand, and it’s being of the ocean and atmosphere to effectively release
driven by the greenhouse gases, it’s being driven heat from the Earth’s surface into space. As of
by anthropogenic effects... But what happened in March 2023, the annual Earth Energy Imbalance
2023 was that, and then plus something. And that (EEI) was measured at 1.61 watts per square meter,
‘plus something’ is much larger than we expect, the energy of which is equal to about 13 atomic
or as yet can explain.”36 bombs (those that were detonated in Hiroshima)
Moreover, there is a growing imbalance being dropped on the planet every second.

Figure 53
Exponential growth of the Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI), indicating the difference between the incoming solar radiation and the outgoing
radiation from all sources. © Leon Simons
Data source: NASA CERES EBAF-TOA All-sky Ed4.2 Net flux, 2000/03-2023/05.

36
Source: [Link]
44 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

Changes in Upper Layers of the Atmosphere

It is important to note that the changes are

occuring not only in the lower layers of the
atmosphere (troposphere), but also in its middle
and upper layers. Figure 54 provides a general
graphical representation of the atmospheric
structure.
The thermosphere, one of the uppermost
layers of the atmosphere, has experienced
a record decrease in density37. Since 2007,
scientists have observed an inexplicable
reduction in thermospheric density at an altitude
of 400 km by 1.7 to 7.4 % over 10 years38. This
is confirmed by data from over 10,000 satellite
orbits that traverse the thermosphere. If the
reduction in thermospheric density continues,
the risk of satellite collisions or failures can
become very high. Moreover, the thermosphere
undergoes significant density variations during
geomagnetic storms triggered by solar flares.
If the thinning of the thermosphere continues
at the same rate, combined with a strong solar
flare, it could lead to a complete disruption of Figure 54
all navigation and satellite networks, including Atmospheric Layers

the Internet.
Changes have also occurred in the established based on observations using various
mesosphere39 (at altitudes from 50 to 90 km) methods40. According to data from the years
and the stratosphere (at altitudes from 18 to 50 1980 to 2018, the thickness of the stratosphere
km), which have significantly cooled over the decreased by an average of 400 meters41.
past 30 years (Figures 55-56). The decrease in
temperature in the middle atmosphere has been

37
Emmert, J. T., Lean, J. L., & Picone, J. M. (2010). Record-low thermospheric density during the 2008 solar minimum. Geophysical Research Letters, 37(12). [Link]
38
Danilov, A.D., Konstantinova, A.V. (2020). Long-Term Variations in the Parameters of the Middle and Upper Atmosphere and Ionosphere (Review). Geomagnetizm i Aeronomija [Geomagnetism
and Aeronomy], 60; 397–420. [Link]
39
Lübken, F.-J., Berger, U., & Baumgarten, G. (2013). Temperature trends in the midlatitude summer mesosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118(24), 13,347–13,360. https://
[Link]/10.1002/2013jd020576
40
Danilov, A.D., Konstantinova, A.V. (2020). Long-Term Variations in the Parameters of the Middle and Upper Atmosphere and Ionosphere (Review). Geomagnetizm i Aeronomija [Geomagnetism
and Aeronomy], 60; 397–420. [Link]
41
Pisoft, P., Sacha, P., Polvani, L. M., Añel, J. A., de la Torre, L., Eichinger, R., Foelsche, U., Huszar, P., Jacobi, C., Karlicky, J., Kuchar, A., Miksovsky, J., Zak, M., & Rieder, H. E. (2021). Stratospheric
contraction caused by increasing greenhouse gases. Environmental Research Letters, 16, 064038. [Link]
 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 45

Simultaneously with the decrease in density to 60%. At an altitude of 130 km in mid-latitudes,

and temperature, a change in the chemical the concentration of O2 (molecular oxygen)
composition of the atmosphere has been recorded, has decreased by 2-4 times42,43. In addition, a
notably a decrease in the concentration of oxygen decrease in the concentration of atomic oxygen
in the upper atmosphere (thermosphere) by up in the upper atmosphere is also observed44.

Figure 55
Temperature anomalies in the mesosphere. The
temperature in the mesosphere have dropped by
approximately 5–7 K on pressure altitudes and even
more (up to 10–12 K) on geometrical altitudes.
Source: Lübken, F.-J., Berger, U., & Baumgarten, G.
(2013). Temperature trends in the midlatitude summer
mesosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research:
Atmospheres, 118(24), 13,347–13,360.
[Link]

Figure 56
Annual global temperature anomalies
in the stratosphere. UAH temperature
anomalies (with respect to 1981 - 2010)
from NOAA polar orbiting satellites
adjusted according to Fu et al. (2004).
Source: [Link]

All changes in the middle and upper atmosphere indicate processes of global changes within the
Earth’s system.

42
Givishvili, G. V. & Leshchenko, L. N. (2022). Long-term trend of the ionospheric E-layer response to solar flares. Solnechno-Zemnaya Fizika [Solar-Terrestrial Physics], 8(1): 51−57.
[Link]
43
Givishvili, G. V. & Leshchenko, L. N. (2022). On the causes of cooling and settling of the middle and upper atmosphere. Izvestija. RAN. Fizika atmosfery i okeana. [News. Russian Academy of
Sciences. Atmospheric and Ocean Physics], 58(5), 601-614. [Link]
44
Danilov, A. D., & Konstantinova, A. V. (2014). Reduction of the atomic oxygen content in the upper atmosphere. Geomagnetizm i Aeronomija. [Geomagnetism and Aeronomy], 54(2), 224–229.
[Link]
46 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

Part 2

CAUSES OF THE GLOBAL

CATASTROPHE

Such a rapid and sudden increase in climate,

atmospheric, and geodynamic catastrophes worldwide
suggests that, in conjunction with the anthropogenic
factor, there is a tremendous amount of additional
energy inside our planet. Beneath the Earth’s crust,
there is a complex thermodynamic system that has been
functioning for billions of years. Thanks to its stability,
life on Earth is possible. However, any changes in one
of the underground layers affect the entire system,
including the surface layer, where humans live.
ON
ONTHE
THEPROGRESSION
PROGRESSIONOF
OFNATURAL
CLIMATICDISASTERS
DISASTERSON
ONEARTH
EARTHAND
ANDTHEIR
THEIRCATASTROPHIC
CATASTROPHICCONSEQUENCES
CONSEQUENCES 47

THE STRUCTURE OF THE EARTH

48 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

Planetary-Scale Changes in 1995

Let’s consider changes in the geophysical per year, suddenly increased its speed to 55 km
and geodynamic parameters of the Earth that and changed its trajectory towards the Taymyr
have occurred since 1995. In that year, scientific Peninsula in Siberia (Figures 57-58)45. Currently,
laboratories worldwide independently discovered the north magnetic pole has shifted over a
alarming planetary anomalies. thousand kilometers in the direction of Siberia.
For example, the north magnetic pole, which Such a rapid movement of the magnetic pole has
had previously been constantly drifting at 10 km not been recorded in the last 10,000 years46.

The North Magnetic Pole Velocity (km/yr)

1995

Figure 57
The drift speed of the North Magnetic Pole, km/year.
NOAA data on the position of the North magnetic pole: [Link]

Dyachenko, A. I. (2003). Magnetic Poles of the Earth. Moscow: MCCME. 48 p.

45

Androsova, N. K., Baranova, T. I., & Semykina D.V. (2020). Geological past and present of the Earth’s magnetic poles. EARTH SCIENCES/ “Colloquium-journal”, 5(57).
46

DOI:10.24411/2520-6990-2020-11388
 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 49

In 1995, a disruption in the Earth’s rotation was

recorded: the direction of the planet’s rotation axis
changed, and its speed of movement increased 17
times. According to research, “the breakpoint of
polar drift in the residual is set in October 1995”47.
In addition, while scientists had noted the
Earth’s rotation slowing down before 1995, the
acceleration of its rotation jumped abruptly in
1995 and 2016, unprecedented in the history
of observations (Figure 59). According to data
from the Earth Orientation Center of the Paris
Observatory, in 1995 and 2016, the length of
day started to decrease by several milliseconds,
Figure 58
indicating that the Earth was rotating faster than
Locations of geomagnetic poles and magnetic poles based on
IGRF-13 from 1900 to 2015 by 5 years and at 2020 (red) and usual. Note that the length of day is defined as a
2025 (prediction). time it takes the Earth to complete one rotation
Source: World Data Center for Geomagnetism, Kyoto
around its axis.

Deviation in length of day for period from 1962 to 2023

Figure 59
Deviation in the length of day in milliseconds from 1962 to 2023. The red lines on the graph represent trend lines, showing the rate
at which days are getting shorter. For instance, the left line is less steep, while the right line, representing acceleration from 2016, is
nearly vertical, meaning that days are getting significantly shorter, indicating a faster planet rotation.
Data source: IERS Earth Orientation Center of the Paris Observatory.
Length of day — Earth Orientation Parameters:
[Link]

Deng, S., Liu, S., Mo, X., Jiang, L., & Bauer-Gottwein, P. (2021). Polar Drift in the 1990s Explained by Terrestrial Water Storage Changes. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(7).
47

[Link]
50 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

Thus, in 1995, a sudden and simultaneous cosmic and solar radiation, is also associated with
change occurred in three geophysical parameters these changes in the Earth’s core. Scientists are
of the Earth: concerned about the changes occurring in the
• the acceleration of the drift of the North geomagnetic field: in the last 50 years, there has
Magnetic Pole been a sharp drop in its intensity48, meaning it is
• the change in the direction and acceleration weakening, and according to the forecast, this trend
of Earth’s axis of rotation will continue (Figure 60). Over the past century,
• the acceleration of the planet’s rotation the magnetic field intensity decreased by 10-15%,
Each of these parameters are interrelated with and in recent years this process has noticeably
the state of the Earth’s core, i.e. the magnetic accelerated. Moreover, the issue is about the
field is created by the geodynamo in the Earth’s largest weakening over the last 12,000-13,000
core, and the planet’s rotation speed and axis are years. Weakening of the magnetic field occurs
dependent on the Earth’s center of mass (inner unevenly on the planet. There are zones where
core). From this, it can be concluded that in 1995, the magnetic field has weakened by 30% – this
significant and anomalous changes began in occurs in the southern part of the Atlantic Ocean
the Earth’s core, the process of which requires and in South America, in the area called the South
enormous energy. Atlantic Anomaly.
Weakening of the planet’s magnetic field,
which protects all living species from deadly
Dipole and axial dipole moment time series

Figure 60

The magnitude of the Earth’s dipole magnetic moment from 1900 to 2020. The graph shows how the strength of the Earth’s dipole
magnetic field has decreased since 1900 and how it is predicted to decrease further. The red color indicates that this decreasing trend
has continued through 2020 and is expected to continue into 2025.
Source: Alken, P., Thébault, E., Beggan, C.D. et al. (2021). International Geomagnetic Reference Field: the thirteenth generation. Earth
Planets Space 73, 49. [Link]

48
Tarasov, L. V. (2012) Earth magnetism: A textbook. Dolgoprudny: Intellect Publishing House, 184 p.
Channell, J. E. T., & Vigliotti, L. (2019). The role of geomagnetic field intensity in Late Quaternary evolution of humans and large mammals. Reviews of Geophysics, 57
[Link]
Channell, J. E. T., & Vigliotti, L. (2019). The role of geomagnetic field intensity in Late Quaternary evolution of humans and large mammals. Reviews of Geophysics, 57
[Link]
 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 51

Danish scientists came to similar conclusions An anomalous manifestation of the

after analyzing the results of observations of the consequences of the weakening of the magnetic
Earth’s magnetic field obtained from the Danish field has been observed in the last few years.
satellite Oersted. In the southern part of the Red auroras are recorded in uncharacteristic
Atlantic Ocean and in the Arctic, they found zones regions of the Earth and even in places where
with anomalously low intensity of the magnetic they have never been before, especially actively
field, which they called “magnetic holes”. Scientists since 2023.
believe that the presence of such “holes” pose According to the current theory, the flows
risks to the operation of navigation equipment on of molten iron moving around the solid core of
satellites, airplanes, and ships, disruption of radio the planet are responsible for the formation of
communications, loss of orientation by migrating the magnetic field. In 2013, scientists from the
birds, and many other problems, even more University of Leeds found that all these changes
terrible and unpredictable - up to an increase in in the magnetic field began to occur due to the
cancer, because in the zones of “magnetic holes” acceleration of the flow of liquid iron in the Earth’s
the Earth and everything that lives on it become outer core49 (Figure 61), which likely began in
unprotected from cosmic radiation. 1995.

Figure 61
Analysis of ESA Swarm satellite data has revealed the presence of a jet stream in the liquid iron part of the Earth’s core at a depth of
3000 km below the surface, and also that this jet stream is accelerating. Source: ESA
Livermore, P. W., Hollerbach, R., & Finlay, C. C. (2017). An accelerating high-latitude jet in Earth’s core. Nature Geoscience, 10, 62–68.
[Link]

Livermore, P. W., Hollerbach, R., & Finlay, C. C. (2017). An accelerating high-latitude jet in Earth’s core. Nature Geoscience, 10, 62–68.
49

[Link]
52 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

Displacement of the Earth’s Core in 1998

In 1997-1998, by studying the Earth’s center Sciences registered a displacement in the Earth’s
of mass via satellite, scientists recorded an center of mass in 199851 (Figure 63). During the
unparalleled phenomenon — a displacement of same period, the International Earth Rotation
the Earth’s inner core50. As a result, the planet’s Service (IERS) recorded a sharp acceleration
core shifted northward, along the line from West of the planet’s rotation (Figure 64). At the same
Antarctica to Western Siberia, towards the Taimyr time, at the Medicina station in Italy, scientists
Peninsula, Russia (Figure 62). recorded a sudden shift in gravity52 (Figure 65).
At the same time, four different research Simultaneously, a sharp change in the Earth’s
teams independently recorded abnormal shape53 was observed (Figure 66), registered
changes in various geophysical parameters using a laser rangefinder system from US
of the Earth, evidencing this event. According satellites. The planet began to expand abnormally
to the satellite data, a team of authors from in the equator area, although before, the trend
Moscow State University and the Institute of was the opposite.
Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of

Yu. V. Barkin, 2012

Figure 62
Displacement of the Core in 1997-1998 and Thermal Waves in Magma Caused by the Core Shift. (Barkin, Yu. V.)
The map depicts the displacement vector of the inner core from West Antarctica to Western Siberia, towards the Taimyr Peninsula.
The scheme is overlaid on a map of atmospheric thermal anomalies.
Source: Geophysical implications of relative displacements and oscillations of the Earth’s core and mantle. Presentation by Yu.V.
Barkin, Moscow, IFZ, OMTS. September 16, 2014.

50
Barkin, Y. V. (2011). Sinhronnye skachki aktivnosti prirodnyh planetarnyh processov v 1997-1998 gg. i ih edinyj mekhanizm [Synchronous spikes in the activity of natural planetary processes in
1997-1998 and their unified mechanism]. in Geologiya morej i okeanov: Materialy XIX Mezhdunarodnoj nauchnoj konferencii po morskoj geologii [Geology of Seas and Oceans: Materials of the XIX
International Scientific Conference on Marine Geology]. Moscow: GEOS, 5, 28-32
Smolkov, G. Ya. (2018). Exposure of the solar system and the earth to external influences. Physics & Astronomy International Journal, 2(4), 310–321. [Link]
51
Zotov, L. V., Barkin, Y. V. & Lyubushin, A. A. (2009). Dvizhenie geocentra i ego geodinamika [The motion of the geocenter and its geodynamics]. In 3rd. conf.
Space geodynamics and modeling of global geodynamic processes, Novosibirsk, September 22-26, 2009, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. (pp. 98-101). Novosibirsk: Geo.
52
Romagnoli, C., Zerbini, S., Lago, L., Richter, B., Simon, D., Domenichini, F., Elmi, C., & Ghirotti, M. (2003). Influence of soil consolidation and thermal expansion effects on height and gravity
variations. Journal of Geodynamics 35(4-5), 521–539. [Link]
53
Cox, C., & Chao, B. F. (2002). Detection of a large-scale mass redistribution in the terrestrial system since 1998. Science, 297(5582), 831–833. [Link]
 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 53

Figure 63
The internal structure of the Earth; the
direction of the secular drift of the Earth’s
center of mass and the trajectory of its pole
across the Earth’s surface in 1990-2010
with an almost 90 degrees turn in
1997-1998 towards the Taimyr Peninsula
(Barkin Yu.V., Klige R.K., 2012)

Figure 64
In 1998, the International Earth Rotation
and Reference Systems Service (IERS)
recorded a sharp acceleration in Earth’s
rotation.
Data source: Earth Orientation Center,
Paris Observatory. Length of day - Earth
Orientation Parameters: [Link]
[Link]/[Link]?plotname=EOP-
C04_14_62-NOW_IAU1980-LOD&id=223

Figure 65

The gravimetric station in Medicina, Italy, recorded a sudden jump

in Earth’s gravity in 1997-1998.
Source: Romagnoli, C., Zerbini, S., Lago, L., Richter, B., Simon, D.,
Domenichini, F., Elmi, C., & Ghirotti, M. (2003). Influence of soil
consolidation and thermal expansion effects on height and gravity
variations. Journal of Geodynamics, 35(4-5), 521–539.
[Link]
54 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

Figure 66
In 1998, according to the data obtained by the laser rangefinder system Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by
Satellite (DORIS), France, a sharp change in the Earth’s shape was observed: it expanded in volume.
Source: Cox, C., & Chao, B. F. (2002). Detection of a large-scale mass redistribution in the terrestrial system since 1998. Science,
297(5582), 831–833. [Link]

According to the Doctor of Physical and displacement of the core resulted in changes in
Mathematical Sciences, Professor Yuri Barkin, all the Earth’s shells.
Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor Gennadi A considerable displacement of the Earth’s
Smolkov54, Doctor of Geographical Sciences, core, which is comparable in size to the Moon,
Professor Mikhail Arushanov55, Academician of raises a question about the nature and scale of
the Russian Academy of Sciences and Honored the influence or the forces capable of causing
Professor of Lomonosov Moscow State University, such changes in the internal structure of the
Doctor of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences planet.
Victor Khain56, and many other researchers, the

54
Barkin, Yu. V. & Smolkov, G. Ya. (2013). Abrupt changes in the trends of geodynamic and geophysical phenomena in 1997-1998. In All-Russian Conf. on Solar-Terrestrial Physics, dedicated to the
100th anniversary of the birth of a corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Stepanov V.E. (September 16-21, 2013, Irkutsk), Irkutsk, 2013.
55
Arushanov, M. L. (2023). Causes of Earth climate change, as a result of space impact, dispelling the myth about anthropogenic global warming. Deutsche Internationale Zeitschrift Für Zeitgenössische
Wissenschaft, 53, 4–14. [Link]
56
Khalilov, E. (Ed.). (2010). Global changes of the environment: Threatening the progress of civilization. GEOCHANGE: Problems of Global Changes of the Geological Environment, 1, London, ISSN
2218-5798.
ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 55

Interconnections Between Geodynamic and

Climatic Processes

Summarizing the above facts, it can be stated that in the last few decades,
the following anomalous changes have started occurring in various shells
of the Earth:
1. Change in the planet’s geophysical parameters
Abnormal acceleration of the Earth’s rotation since 1995.
Sharp displacement and acceleration of the drift of the planet’s rotation
axis in 1995.
2. Change in geomagnetic parameters of the Earth’s core
Sudden acceleration of the north magnetic pole drift in 1995.
Decrease in magnetic field intensity; increase in the area of magnetic
anomalies.
3. Core
Acceleration of the liquid iron flow in the outer core since 1995.
In 1997-1998, a sharp shift of the inner core along the line from West
Antarctica to Western Siberia, towards the Taimyr Peninsula.
4. Mantle
Drastic increase in deep-focus earthquakes at depths between 300 and
750 km since 1995.
5. Lithosphere
Increase in seismic activity since 1995; emergence of earthquakes in
regions where they have never been recorded before.
Abnormal volcanic and magmatic activity; changes in the composition
of erupting lavas.
Accelerated melting of glaciers from the bottom up due to increased
heat coming from the interior, above magma plumes since 1995.
6. Ocean
Unprecedented increase in ocean surface temperatures and ocean
water evaporation.
7. Atmosphere
Cooling of the stratosphere and mesosphere; thinning of the thermosphere;
decrease in concentrations of atomic and molecular oxygen in different
layers of the atmosphere. Increase in global air temperatures in the
troposphere.
Extreme increase in the power and number of hurricanes, floods, wildfires,
droughts, and tornadoes.
56 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

This report presents a model illustrating the susceptible to the pressure from rising magma.
interplay between geodynamic and climatic Presumably, magma is penetrating everywhere
processes. The model was developed to throughout the ocean floor. The thermal content
elucidate the concurrent disruption of equilibrium of ocean waters is growing, and anomalous
across all layers of the Earth and the emergence areas with increased water temperature appear
of anomalies in the planet’s geodynamics. This in the ocean. Presumably, it is the rising magma
phenomenon is accompanied by a heightened that results in an increase of geothermal flow
frequency of extreme climatic events on the from the planet’s interior and a rise of magma
Earth’s surface. An essential aspect of the model plumes under the glaciers of West Antarctica
underscores the linkage of these processes with and central Greenland, accelerating the melting
the threat posed by anthropogenic activities. of glaciers from the bottom up, in conjunction
Apparently, the core is currently experiencing with greenhouse gas emissions. Groundwater
an imbalance and is heating up, which was temperatures are rising in Western Siberia and
manifested in an acceleration of the liquid iron other regions with thin Earth’s crust. It is clear that
flow in the outer core in 1995 and a displacement the rise of magma is causing activation of volcanic,
of the inner core in 1998. This acceleration of the seismic, and tectonic processes, and it also likely
liquid iron flow in the outer core was the very increases the frequency and scale of catastrophic
reason why the north magnetic pole began to climatic events such as abnormal precipitation,
shift much faster. increased frequency of hurricanes, floods and
According to the hypothesis, the core’s wildfires. According to the model, as a result
displacement causes acceleration of the of the changes in the core, the magnetic field
planet’s rotation; the planet’s centrifugal force has been intensively weakening, which causes
and deformation along the equator is increasing. changes in the upper layers of the atmosphere, its
Due to the increase in centrifugal force, magma thinning and cooling, and a decrease in oxygen
begins to sharply rise in the mantle, towards concentrations due to more intense penetration
the Earth’s surface, eroding and heating the of the solar wind. These factors, in turn, likely
lithosphere from the inside more than usual. manifest themselves in abnormal and atypical
The oceanic crust is thinner; therefore, it is more auroras.
ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 57

Changes on Other Planets of the Solar System

According to observations, on other planets outer core. This energy likely began to enter the
of the solar system, even on “dead” planets, the Earth’s system in significant amounts in 1995.
same processes in their interiors began to occur Thus, synchronous changes on other planets
synchronously with the Earth: there has been an of the solar system suggest that there is some
emergence of volcanic activity, seismic activity external cosmic influence affecting the cores of
as well as magnetic anomalies. According to the planets.
the hypothesis described in this report, this can The infographic images below show the
only happen in the case of similar changes in the synchronous changes that have occurred on the
cores of the planets of the solar system just as it solar system planets and their satellites in recent
happens on the Earth. decades. Links to relevant scientific sources
As noted earlier, colossal volumes of additional are provided to confirm and supplement this
energy are required to alter the position of the information.
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 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 67

Assumptions that such phenomena in our Solar Cycle Variations

solar system are caused by solar activity are not
supported by facts. Abnormal changes on the
solar system planets and their satellites began

Solar Irradiance (W/m2)

during the solar minimum period in 1995, that
is, when the solar activity was at its minimum. A
diagram of solar activity cycles in Figure 67 shows
that in 1995 the Sun was at its minimum activity,
so it could not have caused all these changes.
Therefore, the Sun could not have had such
an impact on other planets. Moreover, of the
Figure 67
entire solar system, the Sun reacted to cosmic
Solar Activity Variations over the Last 30 Years
influences last, most likely due to its immense This figure shows three solar cycles between 1975-2005,
mass. Since changes occur synchronously on measured by solar radiation, the number of sunspots, solar flare
activity, and a 10.7 cm radio flux. The graph clearly indicates
all planets of the solar system as well as on the that in 1995 the Sun was at its minimum activity, hence it could
not be the cause of changes in the Earth’s core and the cores
Sun, it is logical to assume that there is a certain of other planets in 1995.
factor from near or deep space that triggers Source: Image created by Robert A. Rohde based on published
data.
the emergence of a vast amount of energy Data source: [Link]
within the planets. This energy arises within the solar-physics/tsi-composite/

planetary systems, concentrating around the

core and bypassing other layers of the planets.
As a result, according to the hypothesis, hypothesis has been developed suggesting that
planetary cores are heated and displaced. None this influence operates on unexplored physical
of the known scientific influences - gravitational, principles. Modern science is encountering
electromagnetic, acoustic, cosmic radiation - such a phenomenon for the first time. It is a
evade our measuring instruments while directly phenomenon that is not officially registered, but
impacting the core. Therefore, according to the its manifestations can be observed. This energy
theory, none of the influences listed above can is hypothesized to revive even the dead planets
cause the changes currently observed on all where seismic and magmatic activity is starting to
planets in the solar system. grow. This is confirmed by Mars where seismic57
Based on the facts outlined above, a and magmatic58 activity has started to increase.

Dahmen, N., Clinton, J. F., Meier, M., Stähler, S., Ceylan, S., Kim, D., Stott, A. E., & Giardini, D. (2022). MarsQuakeNet: A more complete marsquake catalog obtained by deep learning techniques.
57

Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets, 127(11). [Link]

Sun, W., & Tkalčić, H. (2022). Repetitive marsquakes in Martian upper mantle. Nature Communications, 13, 1695. [Link]
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R. D., Ojha, L., Perrin, C., S. Piqueux, & Stähler, S. C. … Banerdt, W. B. (2023). A tectonic origin for the largest marsquake observed by InSight. Geophysical Research Letters, 50(20).
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[Link]
68 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

Astronomical Processes and Their Cyclicity

According to the hypothesis, this influence, mathematical models, this trend is expected to
which consists of a certain type of energy, interacts continue to escalate. It is important to note that
directly and solely with the Earth’s inner core, Earth is not encountering this type of influence
without affecting any other shells of the planet. for the first time. The geological history of our
This type of interaction may be attributed to the planet indicates that the Earth has repeatedly
fact that the inner core has an extremely high experienced similar phases of global climate
density, and its structure likely differs from the change and geodynamics of a similar synchronous
generally accepted iron-nickel theory. According character.
to the hypothesis by Dr. I.M. Belozerov, Doctor Based on geochronological studies of
of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, the inner Quaternary sediments and examination of ice
core has a completely different structure, close to cores and traces of large-scale extinctions,
the structure of a neutron star59. Whereas, the including extinctions of human species, it may
outer core most likely consists of nickel, iron, and be concluded that in the past, the Earth faced a
other metal alloys. According to the assumptions, drastic increase in large-scale climatic cataclysms
the cores of other planets of the solar system, approximately every 12,000 years60. And every
even the gas giants, have a similar structure. 24,000 years, planetary disasters likely were
The hypothesis proposed in this report many times more powerful, as evidenced by
considers the nature of this influence on Earth in examinations of ash layers of volcanic eruptions
an associative example of a flashlight beam in the in ice cores and other geochronological
darkness. Let’s imagine a concentrated beam of studies.61 M. Arushanov, V. Bubnenkov, A.
light surrounded by scattered illumination. Based Baturin62, V. Bushuev63, I. Kopylov64, N. Petrov65,
on a comprehensive analysis of all the data, Ye. Smotrin66, Douglas Vogt67, and many other
only the scattered part of the light is currently researchers68,69,70,71 have come to understand
reaching Earth. According to observations of the cyclical nature of global cataclysms on Earth
ongoing processes, the concentrated beam has with a period of approximately 12-13 thousand
not yet touched Earth, but there is already a years, and now, according to the comprehensive
rapid increase in the frequency and intensity of analysis of the data, humankind is entering the
cataclysms on Earth. Furthermore, according to active phase of this cycle.

59
Belozerov, I. M. (2008). Nature as viewed by a physicist. International Scientific Journal for Alternative Energy and Ecology, 12(68).
[Link]
Hruzdov, V. I. (October 2021). Nejtronnaja Vselennaja, Gl. 10. Raschjot nejtronnogo jadra Zemli [Neutron Universe. Ch. 10. Calculation of the Earth’s neutron core]. Moscow: Libmonster Russia.
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60
Arushanov, M. L. (2023). Causes of Earth climate change, as a result of space impact, dispelling the myth about anthropogenic global warming. Deutsche Internationale Zeitschrift Für Zeitgenössische
Wissenschaft, 53, 4–14. [Link]
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61
Sawyer, D. E., Urgeles, R., & Lo Iacono, C. (2023). 50,000 yr of recurrent volcaniclastic megabed deposition in the Marsili Basin, Tyrrhenian Sea. Geology, 51(11), 1001–1006. [Link]
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Baturin, A. M. (2001). Periodichnost globalnykh katastrof - 12166 let. [Periodicity of Global Catastrophes - 12166 years”] Monograph. Kursk CSTI.
63
Bushuev, E. V., & Kopylov, I. P. (2005). Kosmos i Zemlja. Elektromekhanicheskie vzaimodejstvija. [Space and Earth. Electromechanical Interactions]. Monograph. Moscow: Energy.
64
Kopylov, I. (2001, November 1) Elektromekhanika Solnechnoj sistemy [Electromechanics of the solar system]. NVO.
65
Petrov, N. V. (2015). The Climate of the Earth: The solution to the problem of climate change of the Earth from the position of the law the preservation of life in space. Ecology and Society
Development: Journal of the International Academy of Ecology, Human and Nature Safety Sciences, 4, 11-23. [Link]
 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 69

In geology, paleontology and archaeology, magnetic field, disastrous widespread volcanic

there is a number of evidence of previous disasters eruptions, tectonic rearrangements, atmospheric
of the cycle. Each of those catastrophic events temperature fluctuations by 10 °C72, changes in
was characterized by not only abrupt changes in the level of the world ocean, and subsequent
the Earth’s climate, but also complete geodynamic large-scale glaciations (Figures 68-72).
restructuring: weakening and excursion of the

Figure 68
Global-scale eruptions from 2013 AD to 100,000 cal. between
latitude 70° north and latitude 70° south. In the picture you can
see when such eruptions occurred. Circle sizes reflect the scale
of eruptions. Note that the large red circles indicate that every
24,000 years volcanic eruptions are more disastrous.

Source: Brown, S. K., Crosweller, H. S., Sparks, R. S. J., Cottrell, E.,

Deligne, N. I., Guerrero, N. O., Hobbs, L., Kiyosugi, K., Loughlin,
S. C., Siebert, L., & Takarada, S. (2014). Characterisation of the
Quaternary eruption record: analysis of the Large Magnitude
Explosive Volcanic Eruptions (LaMEVE) database. Journal of
Applied Volcanology, 3(5).
[Link]

Figure 69

Scale of volcanic activity over the last 40 thousand years according

to ice core data. Chronology of the number of volcanic eruptions
based on radiocarbon dating of events and expressed as a relative
deviation.

Source: Bryson, R. A. (1989). Late quaternary volcanic modulation

of Milankovitch climate forcing. Theoretical and Applied
Climatology, 39, 115–125. [Link]

66
Smotrin E. G., candidate of military sciences. (1998). Natural disasters and catastrophes — the main threat to planetary and Eurasian security upon entering the 3rd millennium AD. Geostrategy
and Technologies XXI. Retrieved from: [Link]
67
Vogt, D. B. (2007). God’s Day of Judgment; The real cause of global warming (1st Ed.). Vector Associates. ISBN-13:978-0-930808-08-2
Vogt, D. B. (2015). The theory of multidimensional reality. Vector Associates. ISBN-13: 978-0-930808-10-5.
68
Davidson, B. (2021). The next end of the world. Space Weather News. ISBN 9781098357788
69
Thomas, C. (1993). The Adam & Eve story: The history of cataclysms. Bengal Tiger Pr, ISBN 9781884600012
70
White, K. W. (1992). World in peril: The origin, mission, and scientific findings of the 46th/72nd Reconnaissance Squadron, K. White, ISBN 0962891681.
71
Hapgood, C. H. (1958). Earth’s shifting crust: A key to some basic problems of earth science. Pantheon Books, - Science.
72
Easterbrook, D. J. (2016). Evidence-based climate science, data opposing CO2 emissions as the primary source of global warming, (2nd Ed.) Elsevier. Bellingham, USA.
[Link]
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Figure 70
Temperature anomalies from Greenland and Antarctic ice core data.
Source: Heinrich, H. (1988). Origin and consequences of cyclic ice rafting in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean during the past 130,000
years. Quaternary Research, 29(2), 142–152. [Link]

Figure 71 Figure 72
Approximate relative position of Heinrich events initially recorded Magnetic pole drift, magnetic field weakening, catastrophic
in marine sediment cores from the North Atlantic Ocean. eruptions and extinctions every 12,000 years
Source: Heinrich, H. (1988). Origin and consequences of cyclic ice
rafting in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean during the past 130,000
years. Quaternary Research, 29(2), 142–152.
[Link]

This hypothesis suggests that geodynamic changes within the planet’s depths. As a result of entropy — the
on Earth are primarily derivatives of astronomical conversion of additional energy into heat — the Earth’s
processes and their cyclicity. As in previous cycles, a mantle becomes hotter, magma becomes more fluid,
significant factor in the increase of catastrophes today the flow of endogenous heat from the interior to the
is the accumulation of additional energy in the Earth’s surface increases, and new magma plumes are
interior from external cosmic influences. However, this formed. Today, for example, such massive plumes
cycle is exacerbated by anthropogenic impacts on are rising very rapidly under Siberia, partly due to the
the Earth system, which increases the amount of heat shift of the core in this direction.
 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 71

Abnormal Heating of Siberia

Siberia and the Siberian Arctic are regions where from the bottom up, increasing seismic activity in
heating rates are 2-3 times higher than the global the region, the rise of hot waters to the surface,
average (Fig. 73). According to the hypothesis, this and fires under the snow above fault zones. In
is linked to the formation of magma plumes due to a northern latitudes, there is an increase in methane
shift in the Earth’s core, which causes stress on the and hydrogen emissions from the depths, a growing
mantle in this region (Figs. 74–76). This is supported number of craters from natural gas explosions,
by recent studies by Chinese scientists, who have and intensified mud volcanism on the Arctic shelf.
found that the crust under Siberia is now melting According to tectonophysical models, a magma
and thinning due to magma activity73. This process breakthrough under Siberia will force molten matter
is progressive and reduces the strength of the plate. to the surface under high pressure. This could pose
It is likely that the activity of magma plumes may a direct threat to the existence of Russia and the
also manifest in additional thawing of permafrost entire world.

Figure 73
Temperature anomalies in the world for the period January-April 2020 relative to the 1951-1980 norm. The warming in the Siberian
region exceeds the global temperature anomaly by a factor of 3-6, indicating an additional factor causing heating of this region.
Source: [Link]

73
Li, S., Li, Y., Zhang, Y., Zhou, Z., Guo, J., & Weng, A. (2023). Remnant of the late Permian superplume that generated the Siberian Traps inferred from geomagnetic data. Nature Communications,
14, 1311. [Link]
72 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

Figure 74
Forced relative shift of the core and mantle, and the scheme of asymmetric heat supply to the upper layers of the mantle (on the left).
Linear trends of surface warming (in °C per century) according to NCAR CCSM3 data averaged according to a special scenario http://
[Link]/bitz_fig3.png) (on the right).
Source: Barkin, Yu.V. (2009). Ciklicheskie inversionnye izmenenija klimata v severnom i juzhnom polusharijah Zemli [Cyclic Inversion
Climate Change in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres of Earth]. Geology of the Seas and Oceans: Materials of the XVIII International
Scientific Conference (School) on Marine Geology. Vol. III. - Moscow: GEOS. pp. 4-8.

Figure 75
Scheme of the movement of hydrocarbon fluids in
Moscow and Pavlodar plume-tectonic structures.

Source: Gorny, V. I. et al. (2001) Model of the

Mantle-Lithospheric Interaction Based on Data from
Uralseys Geotraverse for Prospecting Seismology
and Remote Geothermal Method. Deep Structure and
Geodynamics of the Southern Urals. Tver. pp. 227-238.

Figure 76
Scientists from Jilin University and Shijiazhuang Tiedao University used
geomagnetic field data from 16 stations in Northern Asia to calculate the
electrical conductivity of the mantle at various depths. They discovered
a noticeable increase in conductivity relative to the worldwide average
conductivity in the region under the Siberian Traps (yellow and brown areas
on the diagrams). Researchers have ascertained that these areas at depths
from 400 to 900 km are on average 250 degrees hotter than the surrounding
mantle. In these areas, there is a fraction of the molten mantle.

Source: Li, S., Li, Y., Zhang, Y., Zhou, Z., Guo, J., & Weng, A. (2023). Remnant of
the late Permian superplume that generated the Siberian Traps inferred from
geomagnetic data. Nature Communications, 14, 1311. [Link]
s41467-023-37053-3
ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 73

For comparison, an activation of the to survive. However, in the event of a magma

Yellowstone supervolcano in the USA, which breakthrough through the lithospheric plate
also shows signs of abnormal activity, can cause under Siberia, it can be asserted that this would
a destruction of the entire American continent, make life impossible for all living things on the
but there would still be a chance for humankind planet Earth.

The Current Cycle of Planet

By the end of 2024, an increase in volcanic Based on model calculations, by 2030, the
activity is possible, caused by the rise of magma number of earthquakes will likely increase to
and the erosion of lithospheric plates by magmatic such an extent that adaptation to the changed
flows. That could lead to frequent earthquakes conditions will become impossible.
and volcanic eruptions. This conclusion is based It is expected that an increase in the number of
on the following observations: geophysical and small-magnitude seismic events, which indicate
geodynamic parameters of the Earth underwent rising magmatic activity and a widespread
sharp changes in 1995 and 1998, which triggered increase in volcanic activity, will most likely lead to
an exponential trend in the increase of seismic an increase in the number of strong earthquakes.
activity and destabilization of the planet’s interior. There is a high probability that within six years,
This indicates a buildup of energy and tension earthquakes equivalent in destructiveness to the
within the Earth’s depths and an exponentially earthquake in Turkey and Syria on February 6,
increasing release of energy. The ocean and 2023, will occur daily.
atmosphere react with a delay to the processes As a result of the anticipated changes, many
in the depths, but an exponential trend is already cities and states may face severe destruction.
evident in the graphs of their changes. Applying the exponential function to assess the
Based on the current exponential progression damage from climate disasters shows that the
of increasing earthquakes worldwide, an global economy may struggle to compensate for
analysis of the exponential trend in the graph the losses within the next 4-6 years, potentially
was conducted, and on this basis, a model was leading to an economic crisis. Forecasts indicate
constructed to predict the growth in the number a possible collapse of global business during this
of earthquakes in the coming years (Fig. 77). period. Mathematical modeling suggests that
The modeling results are as follows: by 2028, within the next 10 years, the conditions for life
there will be 1,000 earthquakes per day with a on Earth could change significantly.
magnitude of 3.0 and higher on Earth, whereas
currently, there are about 125 occurring daily.
74 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

M3–M9 earthquakes globally during 1979-2023

Figure 77
Model of the exponential growth in the number of natural cataclysms on the example of earthquakes up to 2036.

Figure 78
Forecasted economic losses from natural
disasters, according to the model of
exponential growth in the number of
geodynamic and climate catastrophes (2021
USD billion).
Data Source: AON (Catastrophe Insight).

Based on this trend, an increase in the number for potential technological problems. Forecasts
of all other natural disasters worldwide in the near suggest that significant changes could occur within
future can be predicted. Scientific facts confirm the the next 4-6 years, affecting the viability of many
inevitable progression of climate disasters, and as regions. According to the described model’s further
of today, nothing is holding back the escalation progression, critical events that could impact the
of cataclysms around the world. Solar flares can planet’s integrity may occur.
already cause disruptions in satellite operations
today, underscoring the importance of preparing
 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 75

In previous cycles of catastrophes occurring every pollution, as 99% of plastic is dispersed within the
12,000 years, there were extinctions of species, but ocean water75.
the planet passed through these cycles without In addition to ocean pollution with microplastics,
significant changes in the integrity of its systems. anthropogenic activities, including the burning of
In the current cycle, characterized by more severe hydrocarbons, lead to an increase in the concentration
disasters due to a 24,000-year cycle, another factor of greenhouse gases such as methane (CH4) and
has been added that threatens the planet’s existence carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. Glacier
as a habitable entity. This anthropogenic factor and permafrost melting exacerbates this effect,
previously mentioned in the report plays a crucial role increasing methane concentration in the atmosphere.
in significantly worsening the planet’s situation. This This is particularly dangerous because methane has
anthropogenic impact is manifested in the pollution a greenhouse effect that is 25 times greater than that
of the planet’s primary cooling mechanism—the of carbon dioxide: one ton of methane produces the
contamination of the world’s ocean waters with same warming effect as 25 tons of carbon dioxide.
microplastics. Additionally, ocean acidification leads to a faster
The ocean plays a crucial role in the planet’s decomposition of microplastics into nanoplastics,
thermoregulation. It covers about 70% of the Earth’s further exacerbating the situation by increasing heat
surface and extends deep into the Earth’s crust. accumulation in the ocean.
In the past, the ocean served as a mechanism for The use of hydrocarbons, particularly methane
dissipating excess heat from the planet’s interior and oil, for fuel combustion and plastic production
into the atmosphere and subsequently into outer has significantly worsened the planet’s ecological
space. Humankind has significantly reduced the situation, leading to the accumulation of excess
ocean’s heat-conducting function due to dumping heat in both the oceans and the atmosphere. The
of hydrocarbon products and synthetic polymers anomalous increase in atmospheric and ocean
into it. This results in the ocean’s inability to dissipate temperatures indicates an unprecedented reduction
heat from the lithospheric plates, which are warmed in the oceans’ ability to absorb heat from the Earth’s
by rise of magma during the 12,000-year cycle of depths, which is critically necessary during the influx
catastrophes (Figure 79). The world ocean has never of additional energy to the planet’s core during the
been so heavily polluted before. As a result of oil 12,000-year cycle.
extraction, transportation and related accidents, up Studying coral reefs in the ocean also enables us
to 30 million tons of hydrocarbons enter the ocean to comprehend that in the past, the ocean efficiently
annually74. The overall area of “plastic islands” of dissipated heat. Currently, coral reefs are perishing76
garbage on the ocean’s surface is nearly equivalent due to overheating, despite the fact that they have
to the combined land area of the United States and existed for thousands of years and survived the
Australia. However, this constitutes only 1% of total previous 12,000-year cycles of natural disasters.

74
Alexeev, G. V., Borovkov, M. I., & Titova, N. E. (2018). Sovremennye sredstva dlja ochistki vody ot maslo-zhirovyh jemul’sij i nefteproduktov. [Modern means of purifying water from oil-fat emulsions
and petroleum products]. Colloquium-journal, 7(18), 4-6.
75
Lebreton, L., Egger, M., & Slat, B. (2019). A global mass budget for positively buoyant macroplastic debris in the ocean. Scientific Reports, 9, 12922.
[Link]
76
Hughes, T. P., Kerry, J. T., Baird, A. H., Connolly, S. R., Dietzel, A., Eakin, C. M., Heron, S. F., Hoey, A. S., Hoogenboom, M. O., Liu, G., McWilliam, M. J., Pears, R. J., Pratchett, M. S., Skirving, W. J.,
Stella, J. S., & Torda, G. (2018). Global warming transforms coral reef assemblages. Nature, 556, 492–496.
[Link]
76 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

Figure 79
Diagrams of changes in ocean temperature from 1960-2019 and their comparison with the diagrams of growth in the production
of synthetic polymers, their use in various sectors of economy, and disposal of plastic waste in the ocean (from various sources).

a. Cumulative plastic waste generation and disposal

Geyer, R., Jambeck, J. R., & Law, K. L. (2017). Production, use, and fate of all plastics ever made. Science Advances, 3(7).
[Link]
b. Cumulative sum of microplastic in the ocean and annual counts
Ostle, C., Thompson, R. C., Broughton, D., Gregory, L., Wootton, M., & Johns, D. G. (2019). The rise in ocean plastics evidenced from
a 60-year time series. Nature Communications, 10(1622).
[Link]
c. Ocean heat budget from 1960 to 2019 (Purkey and Johnson, 2010; updated from Cheng et al., 2017)
Cheng, L., Abraham, J., Zhu, J., Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J., Boyer, T., Locarnini, R., Zhang, B., Yu, F., Wan, L., Chen, X., Song, X., Liu, Y.,
& Mann, M. E. (2020). Record-Setting Ocean Warmth Continued in 2019. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 37, 137–142.
[Link]
d. Global primary plastic production by polymer type
Geyer, R., Jambeck, J. R., & Law, K. L. (2017). Production, use, and fate of all plastics ever made. Science Advances, 3(7).
[Link]
e. Cumulative global production of plastics since 1950
Data source: Plastic Marine Pollution Global Dataset

Due to the increased heating of the Earth’s The processes described above currently
interior and the loss of the planet’s cooling capability observed within the Earth’s interior are driven by
due to anthropogenic factors, there is a threat anthropogenic factors and the overheating of the
that this time, Earth will not cope with the cycle of planet’s core due to the influx of excessive energy
catastrophic events, potentially leading it to a fate from space. The core overheats the magma,
similar to that of Mars. Tectonophysical modeling leading to the melting of the mantle and the magma
has allowed for the examination of a possible exerting pressure on the Earth’s crust. As a result of
scenario for the further development of events up this pressure, the crust fractures, breaks, and forms
to the projected point of no return. pathways for the release of deep-seated magma.
 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 77

Tectonophysical and Mathematical Modeling

of the Projected Point of No Return
in 2036

There is a specific location on Earth that poses a 1995. Deep-focus earthquakes, occurring at
critical threat to the entire planet. It is the only point depths of 300–800 kilometers in the mantle, can
on Earth where unique conditions combine: the release energy comparable to nuclear explosions
thinnest crust and high magmatic activity beneath of immense destructive power. The Mariana
it. Furthermore, at this location, the crust is heavily Trench is one of the most geodynamically active
compressed by both rising magma from below regions in the world where such events occur.
and the layer of ocean water above, approximately This indicates active processes taking place in
11 kilometers thick. This location, known as the the mantle beneath the Mariana Trench.
Mariana Trench, is the deepest on Earth, and it The second graph in Figure 81, demonstrates
currently poses the greatest threat to our planet. the growth in the number of surface earthquakes
Let’s consider the first graph (Figure 80), which in the Mariana Trench. This increase can be
illustrates the trend in the increase of deep-focus described by an exponential function. So far, there
earthquakes in the Mariana Trench region are no signs of decrease in this trend.
over the past three decades. There has been
a sharp increase in the number of deep-focus
earthquakes in the Mariana Trench region since
Total number of events

Total number of events

Year Year

Figure 80 Figure 81
Total number of M1+ deep-focus earthquakes in the Mariana Total number of M4+ shallow earthquakes in the
Trench area from 1970 to 2023. Mariana Trench area from 1970 to 2023.
Data Source: International Seismological Centre [Link] Data Source: International Seismological
[Link]/iscbulletin Centre [Link]
78 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

According to USGS data77, more than 120 planetary crust. Around Mariner Valley, extensive
consecutive earthquakes with magnitudes greater flows of volcanic lava are visible, indicating that
than 4.0 were recorded in the Mariana Trench Mariner Valley was a site of significant geological
region on November 24-25, 2023. This is the changes that influenced the degradation of
highest number of earthquakes in one day in the Mars’ condition. Similar geological processes
area in the entire history of observations. This are currently observed in the Mariana Trench,
recent seismic activity suggests that the situation which likely occurred in Mariner Valley on Mars.
beneath the Mariana Trench is only getting worse. It is suggested that such processes could lead
According to mathematical and tectonophysical to significant consequences for Earth and its
model, seismic and magmatic activity will continue biological life forms. However, if the current
to increase exponentially, leading to the following exponential trends in the development of changes
events in 2036. on Earth continue to progress, humanity may be
As a result of intensified geological activity unable to witness Earth transitioning to a state
within the Earth’s interior, magma could penetrate like Mars, as it risks disappearing sooner due to
through the Earth’s crust in the area of the Mariana other causes.
Trench. Under the extreme pressure in this zone, According to updated data, the rate of increase
a full-scale rupture could occur. Billions of cubic in catastrophes exceeds even the most pessimistic
meters of water at approximately 0°C would meet forecasts. This means that humanity has virtually
billions of cubic meters of magma at a temperature no time left to address the consequences of
of 1,600°C, causing an explosion thousands of anthropogenic ocean pollution and the issue of
times more potent than the arsenal of all nuclear external cosmic influence. The exponential trend
weapons on Earth. This event could raise a in the number and intensity of Earth’s climatic and
massive column of steam mixed with dust to more geodynamic disasters places humanity on the
than 500 km height and breach the thermosphere. brink of extinction within the next 10 years.
According to modeling, the atmosphere, having Is there any reason to believe that the
lost its integrity, could wrap around the planet due current climate changes will stop on their own?
to changes in surface tension and could also be Scientific data indicate that even cessation of all
easily swept away by the solar wind. It should be anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions now
noted that the development of such a scenario would not halt the ongoing climate changes. The
would result in the loss of the atmosphere, oceans, reason humanity is moving towards a projected
and magnetic field, and likely, the rotation of the point of no return is the anthropogenic factor -
Earth’s core would stop, similar to what is believed the ocean’s heat dispersal functions have been
to have happened on Mars. compromised by its pollution with micro- and
The Mariana Trench on Earth, similar to Mariner nanoplastics, coinciding with the influx of additional
Valley on Mars, is a region with a relatively thin cosmic energy to the Earth’s interior.

77
USGS. (n.d.). Search results: Seismic activity in the Mariana Trench region according to USGS data.
[Link]
sults%22,%22params%22:%7B%22starttime%22:%222023-11-23%2000:00:00%22,%22endtime%22:%222023-11-26%2023:59:59%22,%22maxlatitude%22:29.075,%22minlati-
tude%22:6.49,%22maxlongitude%22:155.215,%22minlongitude%22:133.242,%22minmagnitude%22:2.5,%22orderby%22:%22time%22%7D%7D
ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 79

Consequently, even a complete cessation of it is necessary to bring together leading scientists

industrial activity would not radically improve from around the world so that they can concentrate
the climate balance, as the global processes of all their efforts on studying this physical problem.
heating the Earth’s interior have already been set In order to achieve this goal, it is crucial to
in motion. Therefore, one of the solutions to this bring awareness about this problem to the global
critical situation is to study the external cosmic community. The only way we will have a chance for
influence currently affecting the core of our planet life, for our future and the future of our children, is
and the cores of other planets in the Solar System. when there emerges a universal demand, urging
Mitigating this threat requires the development those in power to create conditions for uniting
of effective solutions. Despite the limited scientific the world’s scientists in the search for solutions
knowledge of this influence, we can observe that to climate problems.
the cores of planets interact with it. It can therefore
be concluded that the external cosmic influence
is an unknown physical phenomenon. Since this
problem is of physical nature, its solution is also
within the realm of physics. To address this issue,
80 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

Part 3

SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE

Perhaps, a question arises why there is no public

dissemination of the information about the real scale of
the climate threat and no high-level discussion of it among
scientists and politicians. The answer lies in the peculiarities
of the work of human subconsciousness. The subconscious
is structured in such a way that if it doesn’t see a way out
of a critical situation, it simply blocks reality and denies the
existence of a threat.
For this very reason, many of those people who have
familiarized themselves with the above facts and received
exhaustive proof of an impending planetary disaster do not
react to the situation appropriately. They do not believe
that humankind will be able to cope with this challenge and
survive. The key goal of this report is to provide evidence
that a solution to the problem of climate collapse exists.
ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 81

OCEAN RESTORATION

Crucial requirement for the survival of humanity will significantly increase. It is anticipated that the
is the restoration of the ocean’s function to dissipate magma will rise increasingly closer to the surface
heat from the Earth’s interior. Otherwise, as over time.
previously mentioned, the planet Earth may reach Tectonophysical modeling shows that when the
a projected point of no return during this cycle. entire mantle melts, deep-focus earthquakes will
Let’s delve deeper into the processes that play the​​ cease, and the Earth’s crust may be easily breached
most significant role in manifesting the catastrophic by magma in the area of the Mariana Trench.
danger of magma breakthrough in the area of the That is why restoring the ocean’s function is a
Mariana Trench. vital condition for the survival of humankind and
During the 12,000-year cycle, external cosmic the planet.
influence causes the planet’s core to overheat the An additional consequence of the ocean’s
mantle. In this cycle, excessive heat does not escape heat dissipation function being disrupted by
from the mantle due to a failure in the ocean’s anthropogenic factors is excess atmospheric
cooling function, attributed to anthropogenic moisture.
factors. This contributes to an abnormal increase Since the temperature of the world’s oceanic
in magma temperature and intensive melting of the waters increases, moisture evaporates intensively.
mantle. When water evaporates, it also takes thermal
The magma, located in close proximity to the energy from the ocean into the atmosphere. As
core, becomes extremely hot and fluid, actively moist air rises and reaches the colder layers of the
eroding the mantle and forming new pathways to atmosphere, the water vapor condenses, which
the Earth’s surface. According to the model, this means it turns back into liquid water. This leads to
leads to the formation of channels and magmatic cloud formation and eventually to abnormal rainfalls,
rivers in the mantle. Evidence suggests that this spring floods and inundations.
process is already observable in Siberia. A paradox arises: there is more water vapor in
According to the hypothesis, when magmatic the atmosphere, and extreme floods are on the
rivers collide, intramantle explosions occur, caused rise around the world, but at the same time half of
by nuclear reactions that release large amounts of the globe is suffering from droughts. This occurs
energy. These explosions destabilize the Earth’s due to the increase in atmospheric temperature.
core and further increase the temperature inside The higher the temperature of the air is, the more
the planet and seismic activity within the crust. moisture it can hold. As moisture evaporates, it stays
Mathematical calculations indicate that the rate in the atmosphere for a long time without returning
of mantle melting on Earth is accelerating. By the to the earth in the form of precipitation. This leads
end of 2024, when external cosmic influence on the to long periods of drought in certain regions of the
core intensifies, the heating and melting of magma world.
82 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

Warm and humid atmosphere also favors the Currently, a decrease in the density and lowering
formation of tropical cyclones and increases their of the upper layers of the atmosphere have been
destructive power. Warm and moist air, because recorded. Whereas with intensive extraction of
of its lower density, rises to form low-pressure moisture from the atmosphere, it will normalize
zones, which increases wind speeds. When water by height, and its upper layers will become more
in the atmosphere condenses, it releases all the dense. The amount of moisture in the atmosphere
accumulated thermal energy that was absorbed will also become stabilized, which will reduce
during evaporation. This thermal energy is the the occurrence of extreme precipitation and
main source of energy for tropical cyclones. When winds. This will become possible with a complete
wind, water, and thermal energy combine, they transition from the current consumption of surface
gain destructive power. and groundwater to the use of atmospheric water
obtained from these devices at both the domestic
Restoring the ocean’s functions, including its and industrial levels.
ability to remove heat from the Earth’s interior and Let’s explore the necessary steps for restoring
maintain environmental stability, can be achieved moisture and heat exchange between the ocean,
through the widespread use of devices that extract atmosphere, and Earth’s crust.
water from the air, namely, atmospheric water
generators (AWGs). They will not only provide The first stage should involve a complete
enough water for the entire world’s population, but transition to the use of atmospheric water
will also help clean the world’s oceans of micro- generators (AWG) throughout the planet. This will
and nanoplastics. As previously discussed in Part 2 eliminate the need to extract water from surface
of this report, plastics and microplastics, because and underground sources. AWGs can produce
of their unique chemical composition, disrupt the the necessary amount of water for both drinking
ocean’s thermal conductivity, thereby preventing and industrial needs. They will become vital in
the dissipation of heat from the interior. With the the context of a water crisis and will ensure the
mass adoption of AWGs, water that evaporates resilience of water supplies, allowing for the full
from the ocean and contains microplastics will realization of several United Nations Sustainable
pass through the device’s filters, which will remove Development Goals such as:
all pollutants. The substances remaining in the
filter will then be recycled and reused. Removing • Goal 6. Ensure access to water and
these pollutants will restore the ocean’s ability sanitation for all.
to dissipate heat from the Earth’s crust into the • Goal 9. Build resilient infrastructure,
atmosphere and further into space. Also, the promote sustainable industrialization and
thermal conductivity of the atmosphere will foster innovation.
improve, which means that heat will be dissipated • Goal 13. Take urgent action to combat
into space more efficiently as the atmosphere climate change and its impacts.
becomes free of excess moisture, methane, and • Goal 14. Conserve and sustainably use the
CO2. oceans, seas and marine resources.
ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 83

• Goal 15. Sustainably manage forests, and sustainable.

combat desertification, halt and reverse • Goal 13. Take urgent action to combat
land degradation, halt biodiversity loss. climate change and its impacts.
• Goal 17. Revitalize the global partnership for
sustainable development. At the third stage of restoring moisture and
heat exchange between the ocean, atmosphere,
The second important step will be the adoption and Earth’s surface, it is necessary to reconstruct
of fuel-free generators (FFG), which are essential to sewage systems. Wastewater should not be
provide AWGs with the necessary and affordable dumped into open water bodies. It should flow into
power due to their high power consumption. the soil, undergoing natural purification through
Moreover, the moisture for water generation plants soil layers before reaching water bodies.
must be replenished from natural sources, which
must be purified beforehand. For this purpose, The proposed research and practical
open water reservoirs should also be eliminated, approaches can become a new scientific and
along with dams. It is the introduction of FFGs technical revolution. They are aimed at ensuring
that will reduce dependence on hydropower and sustainable water supply and balanced use of
provide an opportunity to open dams. Rivers will water resources. But most importantly, they will
return to their natural channels, restoring their reduce the negative impact on the planet’s climate
natural flow. This will eliminate water stagnation system. These measures have a huge potential to
and bring rivers back to life, ensuring the flow significantly change the environmental situation,
of clean water into the ocean, and will prevent making our planet more resilient to climate
pollutants from entering the ocean from the challenges.
continents.
The anticipated effect of extracting water from
These measures will also help achieve a the atmosphere is estimated as follows: 70% of the
range of the following Sustainable Development problems related to climate deterioration can be
Goals, as adopted by the United Nations General solved by extracting water from the atmosphere.
Assembly: The remaining 30% of the problems will be solved
by wastewater treatment, therefore, this task is
• Goal 7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, also of primary importance.
sustainable and modern energy.
• Goal 8. Promote inclusive and sustainable
economic growth, employment and decent
work for all.
• Goal 9. Build resilient infrastructure,
promote sustainable industrialization and
foster innovation.
• Goal 11. Make cities inclusive, safe, resilient
84 ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

If the proposed measures are implemented, and unwanted winds and temperature swings
according to preliminary estimates, tangible will decrease. The climate is expected to become
results will become noticeable in 2-3 years. The milder and more predictable.
situation may aggravate during the first year after
implementation, but in about 8 to 14 months the However, it is important to understand that
heat and moisture exchange between the ocean these measures will not solve the problem of
and the atmosphere will start to improve. The first geodynamic disasters, as the cause of these
positive results should be expected in 2 years. changes is not in the atmosphere.
Nature will begin to revitalize and atmospheric The widespread implementation of AWGs will
phenomena will become more balanced. In 5 to only be able to mitigate the effects of climate
8 years, it will become clearly visible how much change and accelerate the restoration of the
the waters will begin to purify. This will restore planet’s environment, provided that we protect
the ocean’s function of cooling the planet. Floods the planet from the external cosmic influence.
and droughts will become a thing of the past,
ON THE PROGRESSION OF CLIMATIC DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 85

CONCLUSIONS

Proportional to the increase in the frequency join their efforts and resources for developing
and intensity of natural disasters, the economic and taking comprehensive measures. Today,
losses will also increase worldwide. It is extremely contemporary science is divided and fragmented
important to calculate the potential damage from into narrow-purpose scientific fields and disciplines
upcoming climate disasters by taking into account that do not closely collaborate. In such conditions
the exponential progression that corresponds to of global disunity, it is naturally impossible to
the global trend of increasing cataclysms. comprehensively analyze and fully investigate
the current planetary threat. If conditions for
Thus, the more intense and widespread extreme open cooperation are created, scientists will not
climatic events are, the higher the probability of have to start from scratch, since there already
surge in prices is, and the less stable the economy exist real developments and an understanding of
of the entire world becomes. This is especially cause-and-effect relationships in this area.
important in the context of global catastrophes
caused by geodynamic and anthropogenic factors Now, it is necessary to act promptly and use
that have been described in this report. the remaining time wisely.

An effective solution to this problem requires

international cooperation of scientists who can
86 ON THE PROGRESSION OF NATURAL DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

Appendix 1
The Method of Merging Earthquake Databases
We gathered earthquake data from multiple the same event. Therefore, Mdiff(A,B) is defined
databases such as International Seismological as the minimum difference of magnitudes
Center (ISC)79, United States Geological Survey min(abs(Ma-Mb)) where Ma is a magnitude
(USGS)80, Incorporated Research Institutions for of event A and Mb is a magnitude of event B
Seismology (IRIS)81, European-Mediterranean constrained by the following algorithm:
Seismological Center (EMSC)82, and earthquake
aggregation resource Volcano Discovery (VD)83. If A and B have Mw type of magnitudes, then
To get the most complete view of the earthquake Ma and Mb are selected from the Mw types;
situation, we create a database which merges Else if A and B have Ms type of magnitudes,
events from all these sources. Naturally, some then Ma and Mb are selected from Ms types;
events are present in multiple databases, so Else if A and B have mb type of magnitudes,
we want to identify such identical events and then Ma and Mb are selected from mb types;
group them while merging. Each seismological Else if A and B have ML type of magnitudes,
agency, however, assesses the earthquake then Ma and Mb are selected from ML types;
parameters, such as, the hypocenter, the time of in all other cases: any magnitude from A and
the earthquake, and its magnitude using their own any magnitude from B are chosen to fulfill the
algorithms and particular sets of seismographs. condition: abs(Ma-Mb) is minimal.
Therefore, a strict and accurate comparison
of events using only time, hypocenter and For two related events A and B, we define the
magnitude parameters is impossible. We employ value of their relationship as:
the fuzzy matching method of events between
two databases using the following algorithm. V(A,B) = 36 - 16*Tdiff(A,B)2/8100 - 16*Ddiff(A,B)2/90000
We define event A in the first database D1 - 4*Mdiff(A,B)2,
possibly related with the event B from the
second database D2 if distance of their epicenters where Tdiff (A,B) is measured in seconds,
(Ddiff(A,B)) is less than or equal to 300 km, the Ddiff(A,B) is measured in kilometers, and Mdiff(A,B) is
difference in the time of event (Tdiff(A,B)) is less measured in magnitudes. For two totally identical
than 90 seconds and the difference in estimated events A and B, the value of V(A,B) equals 36.
magnitude (Mdiff(A,B)) is less than or equal to 1. For two events A and B on the boundary of being
There are several different types of earthquake possibly related, the value of V(A,B) equals 0.
magnitudes, for example, in the ISC catalog,
multiple magnitude estimates are presented for

79
ISC Bulletin: event catalogue search [Link]
80
USGS Search Earthquake Catalog [Link]
81
IRIS Wilber 3: Select Event [Link]
82
EMSC Search earthquakes [Link]
83
Volcano Discovery Earthquakes [Link]
ON THE PROGRESSION OF NATURAL DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES 87

To find a match between events in databases 1. The first method is to include an event into a
D1 and D2, it is necessary that each event from one selection of events if any magnitude estimate
database corresponds to no more than one event for the event falls in the desired magnitude
from the other database, and that the sum of all range.
values V(A,B) for the selected pairs of events be 2. The second, more complex, method is to select
maximal. a preferred magnitude estimate and include
Technically, we can define a graph G with the the event into a selection if the preferred
set of vertices formed by all events in D1 and D2 estimate is in the desired magnitude range.
and the set of edges formed by pairs of events We select the preferred magnitude estimate
that are possibly related. The value of an edge by looking for the following magnitude
between vertices A and B is set to V(A,B). The types among the estimates (in the order of
optimization problem we formulated above is preference): Mw, ML, MS, mb, MVD (this is the
known as maximum weight matching in bipartite magnitude estimate coming from the Volcano
graphs and can be solved by standard algorithms84. Discovery database because the magnitude
From the algorithm, we get maximum weight type is not available in that database), MD,
matching between events in D1 and D2 and we and MV. If any magnitude estimate of a given
consider the matched events to be identical. Thus type is found for one event, then all magnitude
the merged database Dm is formed from events in estimates of the selected type for that event
D1 and non-matching events in D2. If an event in are used. Then the median is calculated for
D1 is matched to some event in D2, the magnitude them, and an estimate with the median value
estimate of the matched event in D2 is added to is selected. If there is no estimate of any of the
the set of magnitude estimates for the matched above types (which is rare, only a few percent
event in Dm. of all events in the entire database), then any
By starting with the ISC database and type of magnitude value coinciding with the
sequentially merging databases of USGS, IRIS, median value calculated for all magnitudes of
EMSC and Volcano Discovery (VD) to it, we have this event is selected.
obtained the final merged database (Merged). The difference in the obtained event counts
For plotting various graphs comparing when using the first and the second method of
earthquake counts in different databases, we selecting events in a given magnitude range is
usually need to constrain the data to a certain range insignificant , as a rule, no more than a few percent.
of magnitudes. To avoid differences in earthquake For the graph of the number of earthquakes per
counts due to the differing magnitude estimates year (Figures 7,9) in each database, the first method
among databases we use the merged database of selecting events from the merged database was
to select events in a given magnitude range and used. For graphs of the number of unique seismic
plot the graphs (because the merged database events (Figure 10) present in different databases,
may contain multiple magnitude estimates for one the second method of earthquake selection within
event, it is not obvious which estimate to use for a specified magnitude range was used.
selection). There are two different approaches we
employ:
84
Nitish Korula, Combinatorial Optimization. Maximum Weight Matching in Bipartite Graphs [Link]
88 ON THE PROGRESSION OF NATURAL DISASTERS ON EARTH AND THEIR CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

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