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Mathematical Model of Lumpy Skin Disease

Lumpy Skin Disease is a highly infectious viral disease affecting cattle, first identified in Africa in 1929, leading to reduced milk production. The disease spreads through direct and indirect contact, and mathematical modeling can help identify transmission thresholds to control its spread. By reducing the basic reproduction number below unity, the disease can potentially be eliminated.

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15 views1 page

Mathematical Model of Lumpy Skin Disease

Lumpy Skin Disease is a highly infectious viral disease affecting cattle, first identified in Africa in 1929, leading to reduced milk production. The disease spreads through direct and indirect contact, and mathematical modeling can help identify transmission thresholds to control its spread. By reducing the basic reproduction number below unity, the disease can potentially be eliminated.

Uploaded by

sk1527986
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Mathematical Modelling of Lumpy Skin Disease in Dairy Cow

Lumpy Skin Disease in cattle is deadly and highly infectious which started from Africa in 1929. It is a threatening
disease which is caused by virus ( Genus Capripox) that affects large number of animals mainly cattle. It appears on
the skin and causes irritation which may lead to fever in the animal. As a result, milk production reduces. Three modes
of transmission occurs such as indirect contact, direct contact and transmission while the animals are been milked..
Disease can be eliminated if we succeed in reducing the basic reproduction number below unity. It can be done by identifying
threshold values of transmission rates.

vectors Threshold values


Mathematical of β and βc

Model

Healthy 𝑑𝑆𝑐 𝛽𝑆𝑐 𝐼𝑐 𝛽𝑐 𝑆𝑐 𝐼𝑣


Infected cow = Λ𝑐 − − κ𝑆𝑐 − 𝜇𝑐 𝑆𝑐 + 𝜔𝑅𝑐
cow 𝑑𝑡 𝑁𝑐 𝑁𝑐
𝑑𝑉𝑐
= κ𝑆𝑐 − 𝜇𝑐 𝑉𝑐
𝑑𝑡
𝑑𝐼𝑐 𝛽𝑆𝑐 𝐼𝑐 𝛽𝑐 𝑆𝑐 𝐼𝑐
= + − 𝑟𝐼𝑐 − 𝛿 + 𝜇𝑐 𝐼𝑐
𝑑𝑡 𝑁𝑐 𝑁𝑐
𝑑𝑅𝑐
= 𝑟𝐼𝑐 − 𝜇𝑐 𝑅𝑐 − 𝜔𝑅𝑐
𝑑𝑡
𝑑𝑆𝑣 𝛽𝑣 𝑆𝑣 𝐼𝑐
= Λ𝑣 − − 𝜇𝑣 𝑆𝑣
𝑑𝑡 𝑁𝑐
𝑑𝐼𝑣 𝛽𝑣 𝑆𝑣 𝐼𝑐
= − 𝜇𝑣 𝐼𝑣
𝑑𝑡 𝑁𝑐

Basic Reproduction
Number

𝑅𝑐𝑐 𝑅𝑐𝑐 2
𝑅0 = + + 𝑅𝑐𝑣 𝑅𝑣𝑐
2 4
Where
𝛽𝜇𝑐
𝑅𝑐𝑐 = ,
(𝜇𝑐 + 𝜅)(𝑟 + 𝜇𝑐 + 𝛿)
𝛽𝑐 𝛽𝑣 Λ𝑣 𝜇𝑐2
𝑅𝑐𝑣 = ,𝑅 =
(𝜇𝑐+𝜅)(𝑟+𝜇𝑐+𝛿) 𝑐𝑣 Λ𝑐 𝜇𝑣2

Disease transmission cycle Presented by: Muqaddas Sarfraz


Supervisor : Dr .M . Ozair

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