What is Hypothesis?

● A hypothesis is an educated guess about

something in the world around you.
● It should be testable, either by experiment or
observation.
● For example:
○ A new medicine you think might work.
○ A way of teaching you think might be better.
 Making an assumption,
called hypothesis, about
a population parameter.

Collecting sample
Te is he
Evaluate the
hypothesis

ot
yp

data.
ep g
H
s
St stin
s
Calculating a
sample statistic.
Hypothesis Testing :
Population & sample
[Link]
[Link]
c5294
[Link]
 Hypothesis Testing
HYPOTHESIS
TESTING

Null hypothesis,H0 Alternative hypothesis,HA

▪State the hypothesized value of All possible alternatives other

the parameter before than the null hypothesis.
sampling. E.g
▪The assumption we wish to test µ≠20
(or trying to reject) µ >20
▪E.g µ < 20
▪µ = 20 There is a difference between
coke and diet coke
▪There is no difference
between coke and diet coke
Hypothesis Testing

Basic concept is to form an assertion and test it

with data

Common assumption is that there is no difference

between samples (default assumption)

Statisticians refer to this as the null hypothesis

(H0)

The alternative hypothesis (HA) is that there is a

difference between samples
 What is the Null & alternate
Hypothesis?
● The null hypothesis is always the accepted fact or accepted as being true are:
○ DNA is shaped like a double helix.
○ There are 8 planets in the solar system (excluding Pluto).

● Given a population, the initial (assumed) hypothesis to be

tested ,Ho , is called the null hypothesis.

● Rejection of null hypothesis causes another hypothesis,H1,is

called the alternative hypothesis, to be made.
Statistical Methods for Evaluation-

Hypothesis testing,

difference of means,

wilcoxon rank–sum test,

type 1 type 2 errors,

power and sample size,

ANNOVA
mean, variance , standard deviation

Mean • μ if working with population

(or Average)
• X̄ if working with samples
denoted by

Variance • σ2 (for population)

denoted by • s2 (for sample)

Standard • σX or σ (for population)

deviation
• sX or s (for sample))
denoted by
Mean – is a simple average of given data
values

● Example

● 4,5,9,2,14,6

● Mean X̄= (4+ 5+9+3+15+6) /6

● = 42/6
● =7
Variance: a measure of how data
points differ from the mean
● The mean (Average) of the 2 student marks are
○ Marks of Student A : mean = 70
○ Marks of Student B : mean = 70

● Marks of Student A : 30, 50, 70, 100, 100

Marks of Student B: 70, 70, 70, 70, 70

● But we know that the two data sets are not identical! The
variance shows how they are different.
● We want to find a way to represent these two data set
numerically.
How to Calculate variance?

● If we conceptualize the spread of a distribution

as the extent to which the values in the
distribution differ from the mean and from each
other, then a reasonable measure of spread
might be the average deviation, or difference of
the values from the mean.
How to Calculate variance?

● The average of the squared deviations about the mean is called

the variance.

For population variance

For sample variance

Example 1- Variance
Score ( )2

A
1 30
2 50
3 70
4 100
5 100
Total 350

The mean is 350/5 = 70

Example 1- Variance
( )2
Score
X
1 30 30-70=-40
2 50 50-70=-20
3 70 70-70=0
4 100 100-70=30
5 100 100-70=30
Total 350
Example 1- Variance
( )2
Score
X
1 30 30-70=-40 1600
2 50 50-70=-20 400
3 70 70-70=0 00
4 100 100-70=30 900
5 100 100-70=30 900
Total 350 3800
Example 1- Variance
Score ( )2
X

1
30 30-70=-40 1600
2
50 50-70=-20 400
3
70 70-70=0 00
4
100 100-70=30 900
5
100 100-70=30 900
Totals 350 3800

= 3800/5 = 760
Example 1- Variance
Score ( )2
B

1
70 70-70=0 0
2
70 70-70=0 0
3
70 70-70=0 0
4
70 70-70=0 0
5
70 70-70=0 0
Totals 350 0

0/5 =0
Example 2- Variance

Drive Mark Myrna

1 28 27
2 22 27
3 21 28
4 26 6
5 18 27

Which diver was more consistent?

 Example 2- Variance
( )2
Dive Mark's
Score
X
1 28 5 25
2 22 -1 1
3 21 -2 4
4 26 3 9
5 18 -5 25
Totals 115 0 64
_
X = 28+22+21+26+18= 23
 Example 2- Variance
( )2
Dive Myrna's
Score X

1 27 4 16
2 27 4 16
3 28 5 25
4 06 -17 289
5 27 4 16
Totals 115 0 362

Mark’s Variance = 64 / 5 = 12.8

Myrna’s Variance = 362 / 5 = 72.4

Conclusion: Mark has a lower variance therefore he is more

standard deviation - a measure of
variation of scores about the mean
● Can think of standard deviation as the average
distance to the mean
● Higher standard deviation indicates higher
spread, less consistency, and less clustering.
● sample standard deviation:

● population standard deviation:

Example – Standard Deviation

Dive Mark's Score ( )2

X

1 28 5 25

2 22 -1 1

3 21 -2 4

4 26 3 9

5 18 -5 25
Mark’s Variance =
Totals 115 0 64 64 / 5 = 12.8
Example- Variance & Standard Deviation

● You have just measured the heights of your dogs (in mm)
● The heights (at the shoulders) are: 600mm, 470mm, 170mm, 430mm
and 300mm.
● Find out the Mean, the Variance, and the Standard Deviation.
Example- Variance & Standard Deviation

● Your first step is to find the Mean:

● Mean = (600 + 470 + 170 + 430 + 300)5
● Mean = 1970/5
● Mean = 394
Example- Variance & Standard Deviation

● Now we calculate each dog's difference from the Mean

Example- Variance & Standard Deviation

● To calculate the Variance, take each difference, square it, and then
average the result:
● Variance

σ2 = 2062 + 762 + (−224)2 + 362 + (−94)2 / 5

= 42436 + 5776 + 50176 + 1296 + 8836 / 5
= 108520 / 5
= 21704

● So the Variance σ2 is 21,704

Example- Variance & Standard Deviation

● And the Standard Deviation is just the square root of Variance, so:
● Standard Deviation

σ = √21704
= 147.32...
= 147 (to the nearest mm)
Example- Variance & Standard Deviation

● And the good thing about the Standard Deviation is that it is useful. Now
we can show which heights are within one Standard Deviation (147mm)
of the Mean:

● So, using the Standard Deviation we have a "standard" way

of knowing what is normal, and what is extra large
or extra small.
difference of means

State the hypotheses

Formulate an analysis plan

Analyze sample data using hypothesis test

Interpret results.
Types of Tests

Hypothesis
Testing

Non- Parametric
Parametric Test Test
 Difference Between Parametric and Non
Parametric Test

[Link]
Hypothesis Testing Procedures

EPI 809 / Spring 2008

Many More Tests Exist!
Parametric Test Procedures

[Link] Population Parameters

(Mean)

EPI 809 / Spring 2008

[Link] Stringent(strict) Assumptions
(Normality)

[Link]: Z Test, t Test, c2 Test, F

test
Nonparametric Test Procedures

1. Do Not Involve Population Parameters

• Example: Probability Distributions, Independence

EPI 809 / Spring 2008

2. Data Measured on Any Scale (Ratio or
Interval, Ordinal or Nominal)

3. Example: Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test

[Link]
Parametric Test
Procedures

EPI 809 / Spring 2008

A t test allows us to compare the means of two
groups

The calculations for a t test requires three pieces of

information:
- the difference between the means (mean difference)
- the standard deviation for each group
- and the number of subjects(samples) in each group.

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The size of the standard deviation also influences the
outcome of a t test.
Given the same difference in means, groups with
smaller standard deviations
are more likely to report a significant difference than
groups with larger standard deviations.

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From a practical standpoint, we can see that smaller standard deviations
produce less overlap between the groups than larger standard
deviations.
Less overlap would indicate that the groups are more different from
each other.

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 Difference of Means
Two populations – same or different?
How do we Are the scores for the two
means from the same subject
determine which (or related subjects)?
t test to use…
Yes No
Paired t test Are there the same
(Dependent t-test; number of people in
Correlated t-test) the two groups?

No
Yes
Equal Variance Are the variances of
Independent t test the two groups same?
(Pooled Variance
Independent t-test)
No
yes (Significance Level
(Significance Level for Levene (or F-Max)
Equal Variance for Levene (or F-Max) is p >=.05
Independent t test is p<.05

(Pooled Variance Unequal Variance

Independent t test) Independent t-test
(Separate Variance
Independent t test)
 Difference of Means
Two Parametric Methods

Student’s t-test
• Assumes two normally distributed populations, and
that they have equal variance

Welch’s t-test
• Assumes two normally distributed populations, and
they don’t necessarily have equal variance
Student’s t-test

Student’s t-test assumes that distributions of the two

populations have equal but unknown variances.

Suppose n1 and n2 samples are randomly and

independently selected from two populations, pop1 and
pop1, respectively.

If each population is normally distributed with the same

mean ( µ1=µ2) and with the same variance, then

T (the t-statistic), follows a t-distribution with degrees of

freedom (df)
Student’s t-test
Student’s t-test

If T> =T*
the null hypothesis
is rejected
 Type I and Type II errors

Type I error refers to the situation when we reject the

null hypothesis when it is true (H0 is wrongly rejected).
Denoted by α (alpha)

Type II error refers to the situation when we accept the

null hypothesis when it is false. (H0 is wrongly
Accepted). Denoted by β (beta)
Type I and Type II errors
Type I and Type II errors

Which one is more

dangerous Type I or
Type II error ?
Justify your answer.