CRIM 310: Introduction to Intelligence Analysis

Instructor: Alan More Fall 2011, Section 2

E-mail: amore@[Link] Friday 10:30 AM – 1:10 PM
Office: Rm. 3400, SUB 1 Robinson, Rm. B104
Office Hours: By appointment

Course Description
This course will introduce you to the business of intelligence—the form, function, purpose, and
general capabilities of the US Intelligence Community (IC)—and the supporting role intelligence
analysis plays in achieving US national security objectives. Although the emphasis will be on
national-level, strategic intelligence, we will also look at homeland and law enforcement
intelligence, both at the operational and tactical levels, and how it serves a different set of
consumers.

The course will focus on analysis—the so-called ‘connecting the dots’—and the role played by
analysts in informing policymakers about world events and upcoming challenges. Special
emphasis will be placed on developing the thinking, writing, and briefing skills necessary to
successfully perform as an intelligence analyst. We will pay particular attention to psychological
limitations and biases affecting the way intelligence analysts perceive and interpret foreign
developments—and how these have led to intelligence failures.

Course Prerequisites
None – although strong analytical reasoning, research, writing, and oral communication skills are
a plus.

Course and Learning Objectives

The primary objective of this course is to steep you in the intelligence business, particularly
analysis, giving you an appreciation of the role it plays in delivering important—and often
critical—information to policymakers in Washington.

By the end of the course, you will be able to:

• describe the mission, structure, and functions of the US IC and its constituent agencies;
• detail the intelligence process and the role of the intelligence analyst;
• explain the contributions and importance of analytical disciplines in the IC;
• understand how cognitive biases affect analysts’ processing of information;
• discuss the major ethical and moral issues related to intelligence, particularly analysis;
and
• analyze and synthesize information, craft a well-reasoned written analysis of a foreign
policy issue, and orally communicate the assessment to an audience.
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Class Conduct and Guest Speakers
I expect courteous treatment of your fellow students, guest speakers—and me. This includes:

• being prepared for each class (i. e., completing the readings and assignments);
• engaging in class discussions;
• arriving on time;
• silencing your cell phone;
• avoiding any activity that detracts from the learning environment (such as, sidebar
conversations, ‘Facebooking’ during lessons, passing notes, etc.);
• treating everyone with respect, even though you may disagree with their view;
• working cooperatively with your Group Analysis team members; and
• leaving recording devices at home.

The guest speakers are seasoned intelligence professionals and former colleagues of mine, who
have volunteered their time to speak to you. They are doing this out of an interest in helping
students understand—and perhaps aspire to—a career in intelligence. Please be attentive while
they are speaking and engage them with questions and comments. Material they present will be
on the semester exams!

Required Materials
Lowenthal, M. (2009). Intelligence: From secrets to policy, 4th Edition. Washington, DC: CQ
Press.

This is available from the GMU Bookstore (Fairfax campus only) or internet sources. Please be
sure to buy the 4th edition if you acquire it from non-GMU sources.

All other required readings are available on Blackboard.

Optional Materials
For those students interested in delving further into the extensive literature on intelligence, I have
an Optional Readings folder on Blackboard with a wide array of articles and papers from current
and former Intelligence Officers, US policymakers, and academics. I also have a large library of
books and articles on intelligence and can recommend appropriate sources if you are interested in
finding out more about a particular aspect of intelligence.

Reading on Current Events

At the beginning of every class we will discuss foreign and domestic events of potential interest
to intelligence analysts. I expect you and your Group Analysis team to stay abreast of current
events by monitoring various media sources.

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Fall 2011 Class Schedule
September 2 (Week 1): Course Overview and Introduction to Intelligence
Class introductions and expectations
Discussion of Group Analysis Project (see US National Security Strategy 2010
for ideas on topics - on Blackboard)

Reading: Lowenthal (2009) Chapter 1 What is Intelligence?

Warner (2002) – Wanted: A Definition of Intelligence (Blackboard)

Last day to drop with no tuition penalty – September 6

September 9 (Week 2): History of US Intelligence: Mission and Structure

Reading: Lowenthal (2009) Chapter 2 The Development of US Intelligence
Chapter 7 Counterintelligence
Chapter 8 Covert Action
Chapter 11 Intelligence Reform

In-class exercise – rationalism vs empiricism – two approaches to assimilating

information

September 16 (Week 3): IC Components and the Intelligence Cycle

Reading: Lowenthal (2009) Chapter 3 The US Intelligence Community
Chapter 4 The Intelligence Process: A Macro Look - Who
Does What For Whom?
DNI (2007) – ICD 204: Roles and Responsibilities for the National Intelligence
Priorities Framework (Blackboard)

Guest Speaker: Imagery/Geospatial Analyst, National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency

In-class exercise – imagery problem – what is going on here?

Last day to drop with 33% tuition penalty – September 19

September 23 (Week 4): Intelligence Consumers: From Downtown to the Warfighter

Reading: Lowenthal (2003) Chapter 9 The Role of the Policy Maker
Haass (2002) Supporting US Foreign Policy in the Post-9/11 World
(Blackboard)
Medina (2002) What to Do When Traditional Models Fail: The Coming
Revolution in Intelligence Analysis (Blackboard)

Guest Speaker: Briefer, President’s Daily Brief (PDB), CIA and DNI – intelligence
support to policymakers

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 In-class exercise – TBD

Last day to drop with 67% tuition penalty – September 30

September 30 (Week 5): Collection: The INTs

Reading: Lowenthal (2009) Chapter 5 Collection and the Collection Disciplines
CIA (2009) Intelligence Collection (Blackboard)

Guest Speaker: Former Director, Middle East Regional Bureau, Open Source Center,
DNI

In-class exercise – human intelligence (HUMINT)

Group Analysis Proposal Due (see handout)

October 7 (Week 6): First Exam

October 14 (Week 7): Intelligence Analysis: Tradecraft and the Disciplines

Reading: Lowenthal (2009) Chapter 6 Analysis
Lefebvre (2004) A Look at Intelligence Analysis (Blackboard)
Miller (2008) Improving All-Source Intelligence Analysis: Elevate Knowledge
in the Equation

Guest Speaker: Former Senior Officer, Office of Public Affairs, CIA – on creativity in
intelligence analysis

First exam review

October 21 (Week 8): Cognitive Science and Analytical Failures: Why Bad Things Happen
to Good Analysts
Reading: Heuer (1999) Psychology of Intelligence Analysis – Chapter 1-
Thinking About Thinking (Blackboard)
Wastell (2009) Cognitive Predispositions and Intelligence Analyst
Reasoning (Blackboard)
Hedley (2005) Learning From Intelligence Failures (Blackboard)

Guest Speaker: Dr. John Hedley, former senior CIA and National Intelligence Council
Officer

In-class exercise - cognitive biases in evaluating information

October 28 (Week 9): Homeland Security and Law Enforcement Intelligence

Reading: Carter (2009) Chapter 1 Introduction
Chapter 2 Understanding Contemporary Intelligence for Law
Enforcement Organizations (Blackboard)
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 Berkowitz (2004) Intelligence for the Homeland (Blackboard)

Guest Speaker: Director, Border Security Division, Intelligence and Analysis,

Department of Homeland Security

In-class exercise - TBD

November 4 (Week 10): Intelligence: Oversight and Ethics

Reading: Lowenthal (2003) Chapter 10 Oversight and Accountability
Chapter 13 Ethical and Moral Issues in Intelligence
Gendron (2007) Just War, Just Intelligence: An Ethical Framework for Foreign
Espionage (Blackboard)

Guest Speaker: Former Attorney, Office of General Counsel, CIA

In-class exercise – ethical dilemmas in intelligence

November 11 (Week 11): Second Exam

November 18 (Week 12): Communicating Intelligence: Writing and Briefing

Reading: CIA University (2003) Analytical Thinking and Presentation for Intelligence
Producers, Part 2 Conceptualizing Finished Intelligence
Part 3 Writing Effective Intelligence
Part 8 Giving an Intelligence Briefing (All on Blackboard)

Guest Speaker: Former Senior Counter-Narcotics Targeting Analyst, CIA

In-class exercises – writing and briefing techniques

Second exam review

November 25 (no class): Happy Thanksgiving!

December 2 (Week 13): Group Analysis Project Presentations - I

Analysis Papers Due

December 9 (Week 14): Group Analysis Project Presentations - II

Course wrap-up and discussion of final exam

Guest Speaker: Lyssa M., Recruiter, Analytical Hiring Division, CIA

December 16 (Week 15): Final Exam

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Participation
Participation is a very important part of your grade and a crucial contributor to your learning.
While contributing to class discussions is central to participation, your grade will also hinge on
other important factors, especially how you participate. This includes your ability to fully
participate in class discussions, involvement in peer response and feedback, and contributions to
any on-line discussions. The amount of participation is important but is less so than reasoned,
responsible, and quality participation.

Attendance is essential for success in this course; obviously, you cannot participate if you do not
come to class. Absences or tardiness will significantly affect your progress and your grade. If
you must miss a class, please let me know in advance. You will be responsible for the content
delivered and any handouts distributed. Please consult a classmate for any work you may have
missed.

During most class periods, you will complete in-class exercises that count towards your
participation grade. If you miss a class and want to make up the participation points for that day,
you have the option of writing a paper based on the materials covered. See me for details.

Exams and Assignments

Semester Exams
The two semester exams will include short answer (true-false, fill-in, and multiple-choice) and
essay questions based on the material covered in readings, lecture, in-class discussion, and by
guest speakers. The first exam will cover weeks 1-5 and the second exam will cover weeks 7-10.

Final Exam
The final exam will require you to write an analytical report on a hypothetical situation in a
country of interest to the US policy community. You will be given three pieces of fictitious “raw
intelligence” from the CIA, the State Department, and the media, and have to craft an
intelligence assessment for the President and his key decisionmakers.

Group Analysis Project

The Group Analysis Project will require an assessment of a current issue of interest to US
policymakers. Refer to the US National Security Strategy 2010 for ideas on topics (see
Blackboard). I will assign you to a group in Week 2. Your group will have to:
• write a 1-2 page project proposal (due Week 5) for my approval;
• write a 3-4 page assessment of the issue using appropriate analytical tradecraft (due
Week 13); and
• present a 10-minute analytical briefing to the class (Weeks 13 and 14).

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These assignments must be submitted in hardcopy, including a copy of your PowerPoint
presentation, and posted on Blackboard for your fellow students to review.

Grading - Points for Exams and Assignments

1. Participation (20 points): includes in-class exercises, class discussion, and on-line
discussions on Blackboard. Absence from class will significantly affect your participation grade!
2. Semester Exams (30 points – 15 points each)
3. Group Analysis Paper (15 points)
4. Group Analysis Presentation (10 points)
5. Final Exam (25 points)

Grading Expectations
The grading scale is from A to F. What this means in practical terms is that not everyone earns
an A, B—or even a C. A’s and B’s are reserved for excellent or very good work—work that
demonstrates not only a strong, insightful grasp of the material but also shows a high degree of
complexity, originality, and independence of thought. As with all GMU courses, a C reflects an
acceptable but not impressive or thoughtful command of the subject matter. Exam answers,
assignments, and in-class exercises that demonstrate only a rudimentary or one-dimensional
grasp of the material, or that show serious weaknesses or flaws in the analysis and presentation
of ideas, will receive a below-average grade.

Grading Scale
Final grades will be determined based on the following scale:
98 - 100 = A+
93 - 97 = A
90 - 92 = A-
87 - 89 = B+
83 - 86 = B
80 - 82 = B-
77 - 79 = C+
70 - 76 = C
67 - 69 = C-
60 - 66 = D
Below 60 = F

If you have a concern about the grade you receive on a specific assignment, you must contact me
within two weeks of receiving your grade for that assignment to discuss any issues.

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Grading Guidelines
Grading will be based on a cumulative number of points attributed to assignments, class work,
and exams as listed above. Your work will be evaluated according to the following guidelines:

A: Outstanding
• Provides clear evidence of knowledge of course materials and presentations.
• Effectively applies knowledge to analytical problem solving.
• Shows substantial depth, fullness, and complexity of thought.
• Demonstrates clear, focused, coherent, and logical organization.
• Exam answers are fully-developed, detailed, and clear.

B: Good
• Demonstrates adequate knowledge of course materials and presentations.
• Applies knowledge to analytical problem solving with some degree of expertise.
• Shows some depth and complexity of thought.
• Effectively organized; easy to follow and understand.
• Exam answers are well-developed and logically coherent.

C: Average
• Demonstrates some knowledge of course materials and presentations.
• Has difficulty applying knowledge to analytical problem solving.
• Shows clarity of thought but may lack complexity.
• Somewhat organized; ideas clouded by inadequate or illogical flow.
• Exam answers are adequately developed with some detail but may contain logical
fallacies.

D: Poor
• Demonstrates minimal knowledge of course materials and presentations.
• Unable to apply knowledge to analytical problem solving.
• Simplistic or stereotypical in thought.
• Demonstrates problems in organization.
• Exam answers are partially wrong or offer generalizations without supporting detail.

F: Inadequate
• Demonstrates no knowledge of course materials and presentations.
• Does not understand analytical problem solving.
• Demonstrates serious inadequacy in thought.
• Fails to discuss the topic, or is illogical.
• Exam answers are wrong, off-topic, or extremely difficult to follow.

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Academic Honesty
GMU has an Honor Code with clear guidelines regarding academic integrity. One fundamental
principle must be followed at all times: all answers on exams and work submitted should be your
own. No grade is important enough to justify academic misconduct. For more information, see:
[Link]

University Resources and Assistance

Disability Resource Center
[Link]/student/drc/
703-993-2474 SUB I, Room 222
The Disability Resource Center assists students with learning or physical conditions
affecting learning. If you have a disability documented by the Disability Resource Center
that requires special conditions for exams or other writing assignments, please see me
the first week of classes.

Writing Center
[Link]
703-993-1200 Robinson A 114
The Writing Center provides tutors who can help you develop ideas and revise papers at
no charge. It can sometimes accommodate walk-ins, but generally it is best to call for an
appointment. The services of the Writing Center are also available online.

GMU Libraries
[Link]
The GMU Libraries employ Librarians who serve can help you find information to
support your analysis project. Each Librarian is a subject specialist and can help with
research topics of any area or discipline. The Library’s web site provides electronic
access to journal databases and many other resources.

GMU Career Services

[Link]
Career Services offers career education and planning, internship opportunities, resume
service, job search assistance, and graduate school application preparation. The have an
extensive library of print and online resources, and offer a number of interesting
workshops.

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CRIM 310, Sect 2 Student Information Sheet Fall 2011

Name_______________________________________________________________

Name you prefer to be called in class______________________________________

Major_______________________________________________________________

Minor_______________________________________________________________

Expected Date of Graduation_____________________________________________

Non-Mason college work, if any (courses, degrees, etc.)_______________________

____________________________________________________________________

Why are you taking this course?__________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________

What do you hope to accomplish in this course?______________________________

____________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________

Any concerns?________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________

Any special needs?_____________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________

Any international experience (courses, overseas travel/residency, military, etc.)?____

____________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________

This form is optional but helpful to me for assessing the class’s level of knowledge and expertise. If
you want, please fill it out and return it to me at the first class meeting
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