✅ Fact: "A fair six-sided die has a 1/6 probability of rolling a 3.
"
❌ Bluff: "Flipping a coin twice guarantees one heads and one tails." (False –
each flip is independent!)
✅ Fact: "The probability of drawing a red card from a standard deck is 1/2."
❌ Bluff: "If you roll two dice, you are more likely to roll a 2 than a 7." (False –
7 is the most common
III. Lesson Proper
A. Motivation (Engagement Activity – "Lucky Guess") (10 minutes)
1. Ask students:
o “If I flip this coin, what are the chances it lands on heads?”
o “If I roll a die, what are the chances of rolling a 6?”
2. Let students guess and explain their reasoning.
3. Tell them today they will explore probability—the study of how likely
an event is to happen!
B. Lesson Presentation (15 minutes)
1. Definition of Probability
Explain that probability is the measure of how likely an event is to
occur.
Introduce the probability formula:
Probability=Number of favorable outcomesTotal number of possible out
comes\text{Probability} = \frac{\text{Number of favorable
outcomes}}{\text{Total number of possible
outcomes}}Probability=Total number of possible outcomesNumber of f
avorable outcomes
Example: Probability of rolling a 3 on a die = 1/6
2. Theoretical vs. Experimental Probability
Theoretical Probability: What should happen in an ideal situation
(e.g., 50% chance of getting heads in a coin flip).
Experimental Probability: The actual results from an experiment
(e.g., flipping a coin 10 times might give 6 heads and 4 tails).
C. Activity 1: "Fact or Bluff – Probability Edition" (10 minutes)
Read probability statements aloud.
Students guess if they are Fact or Bluff.
Example statements:
o “Flipping a coin always results in an equal number of heads and
tails.” (Bluff)
o “Rolling an even number on a die has a probability of 3/6 or 1/2.”
(Fact)
Discuss each answer and correct misconceptions.
D. Activity 2: "Probability Experiment Stations" (15 minutes)
Students rotate between stations to conduct experiments and
record outcomes.
✅ Station 1: Coin Flip Challenge
Flip a coin 20 times.
Record how many heads and tails appear.
Compare with theoretical probability (50-50).
✅ Station 2: Dice Rolling Game
Roll a six-sided die 30 times.
Track how often each number appears.
Compare actual results to expected probability (each number should
appear 1/6 of the time).
✅ Station 3: Spinner Fun
Spin a 4-section spinner 15 times.
Predict which color will appear most.
Record results and compare.
✅ Station 4: Mystery Marbles
Draw a marble from a bag without looking.
Record color and return marble to the bag.
Repeat 20 times.
Compare predictions to actual results.
E. Discussion & Reflection (Wrap-up) (5 minutes)
Ask: Did your experimental probability match the theoretical
probability? Why or why not?
Discuss how probability is used in real life (weather forecasts, games,
lottery, etc.).
F. Assessment (Exit Ticket)
Before leaving, students answer:
1. What is probability?
2. What is the probability of rolling a 5 on a fair six-sided die?
3. What is one example of probability in real life?
G. Homework (Optional – Fun Challenge)
Find a real-world example of probability (e.g., sports, board games,
weather).
Explain how probability is used in that situation.