Plant disease forecasting
It is a process or set of action to delivery advance notice to the farmer of particular
area or religion. Where the weather condition are favorable or not for development
a disease in epiedamic form.
According to the possibilities of the diseases, farmers are suggested whether the
control measure is economic gain or not.
e.g. Late blight to potato: Netherland, USA, Canada, Great Britain, France
Downy Mildew: Australia, Netherland, USA, Newzeland.
Leaf rust of Wheat: USA.
Objective or Usefulness:
1. To help the people or farmer to take necessary step or control plant disease.
-Plant might be use of resistant variety or alternate variety.
-Minimize effect to disease.
-Use of preventive chemicals.
2. Helps to predict the national yield loss of respective crop due to diseases.
3. Helps the farmers to avoid unnecessary cost control measure.
4. Teaches as the role of environment for diseases development.
5. Research aims at accurate forecasting help us to identify the gapes remain in our
knowledge.
Basic Consideration:
1. Crops should be widely important. It must be rather food or cash crop.
2. Diseases should be major and cause significant damage in terms of quality and
quantity.
3. Disease should be in such category that appears in epidemic form under certain
environmental condition.
4. There should be enough observation and experimental evidence or information
about development of disease for predication.
5. The control measure preventive or curative should be available or feasible, so
that farmer can practice then commercially.
6. Farmer should be informed early enough, so that they can take necessary
effective measure.
Factors:
Pathogen: Inoculums, virulent, dissemination.
Host: Distribution, susceptibility, age, presence of alternate host.
Three methods of forecasting:
1. Empirical method.
2. Fundamental method.
3. Combined method.
1. Empirical method:
Considering the previous 10-30 years information on diseased pattern forecasting
has been formulated. Here the effect of different environment factor (, e.g.
temperature, humidity, rainfall). On diseases cycle (spore, germination, infection,
speculation, dissemination,) on experiment is done here.
2. Fundamental method:
Effect of different environment factor on host pathogen, in diseased deployment
has been terminated by lab research under experimental condition. In this method
data on dieses severity, diseases incidence, weather etc are collect and analyzed to
determine to correlation between data and result, then the experiment is carried out
in laboratory or green house on the combined and then data were collected and
forecasting is done.
3. Combined method:
in this method data on diseases severity, diseases incidence, weather etc. are collect
and analyzed to determine the correlation between data and result. Then the
experiment is carried out in laboratory or green house on the rage of weather factor
that influence on host or pathogen individually or combined and then data were
collected and forecasting is done. A climatological model is prepared on the basis
of lab experiment and this data is tested in filed condition and observation of
disease development in relation to metrological information.
Forecasting Message:
Announcements about epidemic diseases which deal with radio, television, and
newspapers, which is by forecasting.
What should be including the forecasting message:
When the diseases become epidemic.
appropriate control measure.
Method and dose of applying control measure.
Chemicals range for controlling.
Forecaster DD (DAE) DG (DAE)
Forecasting DG (DAE) Ministry
TV Radio
Newspaper
Miking
Meeting
Forecasting Model:
Representation of the forecasting massage is done through data, pictures etc.
Critical weather, critical growth stage, etc. must be included in the forecasting
model.
Critical weather:
The weather in which the particular occur in epidemic form in known as critical
weather it include temperature, rainfall, light, wind etc. e.g critical weather of late
blight of potato occur:
Temperature: - 10-15℃ and 2-3 days
Cloudiness’ -3 days.
Dew fall at night for 2-3 days.
[Link] growth stage.
The growth stage in which the particular diseases occur in epidemic form in known
as critical growth stage.