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Random Variables and Probability Concepts

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
12 views11 pages

Random Variables and Probability Concepts

Uploaded by

ankurmishralauda
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

TOPICS COVERED

• Random Variable
- Probability Distribution Table
• Bernoulli's Trials
• Mean. Variance and Standard
Deviation

Random Variable
Let S be the sa mp le space of a given experiment then a real valued fun ction X :
S ---+ R is call ed random variable.

For example
(a) If a coin is tossed thrice and we define the random variable X as the
number of heads obtained then
X = 0, I, 2,3

(b) If 2 ca rd s are drawn from a well shuffied deck of 52 ca rd s and we define


random variab le X as the number of kings obtained then
X = 0, I, 2

2 r Mdt aa tf.<o,;,n

Probability Distribution
The data di stri bution of probability of elementary events defined by random
variable X is called probability distribution.
E.g.
3 coins are tossed and consider X as random variab le representing the number
of heads. Draw probability distribution table.

Mean= L XP(X)
2

Variance = L 2
X P(X) - ( L XP(X))
'A P{Y) X P(< ) r' 1/,)
I 3 q. ! :, q
'3 ~ ii i i

~
.,, G It )( ~ _ 12
'I, i i-g
I
-3'o -3'il ' y?, - 1
!. - \
I 0
0 Of.!_ - ()
i i -
Ko·le °,, ~P(t), I :;,!{,) c ~ f,'l>(,)c ~
i

5::-< NHM , Mffl , H'fff ,Tff .... 7


t 11111 , itfl , H"fT , TTT J
A person tosses a coin th rice. If heads comes up, he win s Rs 10 a nd if tails co mes up
he loses Rs 5. What is the mean of the random va riab le X defined as amount won or
Iost '. n
u
0 15/4
X f(><) )' f(• )
3, ~,o,I.,, a fo-1,[Link] ~ ~

0 25/8 ,. 1/i ?.•/i 2 htob =- /Otro - S '=.. -d.


lo - 5--5 ~ ~
Y 15/Z ", Vi ~'Ii
I 1-ite>~ =--

0 h,• .t>i, -- - 5 - 5 - S =-- ;(


e None of th ese 0 s/i
1/-i,
()

- IS/'!, \li t•~ " i><?V) -- I_S_


- I~
"2.-
~ )< _ to

X 0 2 3 Otherwise
P(X) X Zx l.5x Z.5x 0

0 3/7
2 P(,) = I
P{ ,>, 2)

0 1/7 Y .,__2'1-il S- x.-f--ZS ,: +O ::.... I =- P( ys z)-t- P(, c3)


jf 4/7 f r =-- I = I S x + ? r; >
-., ~ 'I, --
e 5/7 -
~x_
':L
-=i

Bernoulli's Trials
In a ra ndom ex perimen t, if there are two events com e ment
to each oth er say one of th em is Success and other is Failure,
th e n any outcome of such experi ment is kn own as Bernoulli's
Trail s. P(~.,,,s,) =r Plii.,lvr•) ='t- ">
---~
p•'l =I

For exam ple n -:. 10


v, 21 9"f
If a dice is rolled 10 times nd getting a six is considered to
be s uccess the n it is known as Be rnoulli's trail s.
P(six) + P(not six)= 1
Here, n = 10 i.e. 10 trials were made for the sa me experiment

P(s""""i =Y(~,) ~ =-P


1<t=i-p= 11
Binomial Probability Distribution Bf n,pJ
In a Bernoulli's Trials on 'n' independent tri als, th e
probability of exactly ·r successes
P(X = r) = "C, (p)'(q)"·' [,
~

p = probability of success
q = probability of fai lure (Note: p + q = I)
•l ~
f(X) = np ( 1'11,oo) o, ( •p«>'[Link])
Va r(X) = npq
SD(X) = Var(X)

Suppose a co in is tossed 10 times a nd gett ing a head is consid ered to be success.


What is the probability of getting
(y{.Exactl 6 heads .(J,l'At least 1 heads a nd ~At most 9 heads
Also find the Mean, variance and SD.

A medi cine is known to be 75 % effect ive to cure a patient. If the medic in e is given to
5 latients wha t is the probability that at least one atie nt is cured by thi s medicine?

0 1/ 1024

fj 243/ 1024

..,, 1023/1024

C) 78 1/1024
l!I f " ~' ¼'V~
In a lottery, 16 tickets are so ld and 4 rizes arc awarded . If a person buy 4 tickets,
(8)
what is th e probability of his winning a prize?

4 ~ 175
o' ( 16) 2 256
P( I,)"" ,0) c.. I-P( 1,,,a)
=- I - P(x =- o)
0 4 e 81
256
I - '\Co po 'l~
=- I - (~)~
= \- ~ = 17,
2,t, 2, b

The mean and variance of a binomi al di stributi on are 8 and 4 respectively. What is
P(X = 1) equa l to?

1 1 np " g ~r'l = ~
Y \0 96
9 1024
"m = £II -"7 'l, ~ J
:,_
"f
0 2048 e 3
2048 .,,, r· i

• ~(n,p)
Let the random variabl e X fo llows B (6, p). I 16. PX = 4) = P(X = 2) then wh at is th e
va lue of p?

71 ¼
,1,q•
n :ac b
o' 3 lo f(,,, ) = P(,. z-)
,, ~ -,, =
0 4 e 1
6
.t't~ - 16 r ~lx
~ ~ =~
I

bc'1 " tc,_ 'l = ,,.,_

II In eight th rows of a di 5 or 6 is considered as success. Th e mean and standard


A certain type of missi le hits the target with probabi li ty p = 0.3. What is the least
nu mber of missiles sho uld be fi red so that there is at least an 80% probabili ty that
the target is hit?

JY s I- f{x so)
0 6 (o .,) 1 ~ o., '> O 2
9' 1 (o .a)' ~
1
04S '> D· '>

C) None of these (o,) ~ Os 4< '> o:z.


(I ,
1" cc O14DI '> O 2

(o 1)' = Olb'ro'T <o 'L


n Following is a probability of distribution
r I 2 J 4 01h.:rs
or a random variable Y :
/'(>) 2, 15 l i\5 x 2t 0
Find th e va lu e of x .

....
0 2/5

1/5

1/3
Z P(Y)
I, 15
3x.. + L
=
~ -t-.!... -r l:: +2::t:

5
;- D

=- I
~,

~ 4/15 "3 :x_ = 'i. ~ :x. = '.!..


5 Is

ffl The probability distribution of random variable X with two mi ss ing


probabilities p 1 and p 2 is given below:
X I 2 3 4 5
/ '(I) j K l__p,_ : 4_k_ l__p, 2k
If it is further given that P(X $ 2) :;;;: 0.25 and P( X ;?!: 4} = 0.35.
Consider the fo ll owing statements
/1.p, = P,
)(.II. p, + p 2 =
P(X 3) =
Which of the above statem ent(s) is/are true?

. , !only o' ll only

. . Hot h I and I I . . Neither I nor II

1. Pl X) = Kt F,.,. 'll<t- , t-2.I< ~

K-t I ;. O· l-5" p,. + ~\<. = 0 · 35


P, = o IS- P:1. = 0 I S
0 '-5 + ~\<.t 03, ~,
~ J< ~
I -o •l:.

~J< = O ·"f
k =o I

r,.,. r.. = 0 IS-,. 01S


= 0 -3
p, tp, t P(x=,)

ffl
A coi n is tossed 10 times. The number of head s minus the number tail s in 10
tosses is co nsidered as the outco me of the experiment What is the number of
~ in the sample space?

No 1:1 11 H-T
10
~,. "' l!ll T
~
0 ,. ./

!/I n 8 ./

11
• :,.
'~"
_.,,.

21
l
~
3
~ l-
-
V"
s s 0 ~

~ {, - l- ~

_,,
-~
-
99 3 1
l- ~ -1,,
I -'I, ✓
9
./
0 Jo - ID
1/ 18 P(a.t/~t 3) ~ P/x =- ~) +P(;,,: ~) + f(x =s) t-P(x =,)

3/64 =- 6l~(LS + be,,, (t)' t 'cs{!.-/-,. ,,6 ({) J

~ IS
"'Ji721/32 =-
6~
-t
G•
t-
''" .,. .L,~
• 11 / 16
=
,~
~ 2.
~ .u
3>--

A coi n is tossed 6 times. The proba bility of getting exactly 2 heads is:

• 1/32

• 15/32

. 15/64 IS~ _L )<. L


'1 11,

0 None of th ese

m-
A coin is tossed S tim es. The probability that tail appea rs anl odd numb er of times, is

El p=.L:,_ '!, =- i

•..
. , - 1 /2

1/3
p (x =- 1) -t i(J< =- 3) + p( x=- s-)
2/5 5l ({)' ''3 ( 4_) ' ,/- "c, ({}r


I
-t

1/5 10
= 2- + -t l
32-- TL 3 :,_

~ 0 l
3L 2...

A man make atte mpts to hit th e targeL The probability of hitti ng that target is 3/5.
T hen th e probab ility that A hit the target exactly 2 times in 5 attempts is: -

72/3 125

216/625

144/3125

- , 144/625
II
In a four th rows of a pair of dice, the probability of throwing doublets at least twice is:

• 17/ 144
f ' 3b
~=Lb q = J,,. ,-
I,
n =½
""fi:::- 19/ 144

• 7/36
r{ oJ.J,,,,,. 1 -1.,,;u) = f/)1. =2.) +- P(x-- 3) +P(x i 0

0 Noneofthese
= IC,_ (n\~ )'"+ 4,~ (1,/{n + ~C,, {¼ )1

If a fair di e is rolled 4 times, the n what is the probabi lity th at th ere are exact l 2 s·, es?

• 5/216
I') = '1 , F,. t •'L=f
1. 'l-
• 25/2 16 P(xs i.) = \ .1 r


'I.,
2
125/2 15 = bX (¼J X (t)'"
0 175/2 16 6x l -,,.
36
w;
3h
i..,-

&lb

What is the probability tha t in a fam ily of 4 ch ild ren the re will be a t least o ne boy?

- - , 15/16 n = '1 p-= i ' 'V'" -2-I

•• 0
3/8

1/16

7/8
P[a,1:leM.t 1) -=
= I-
=
I- r( x= o)
"'c. (i) l ~J
I- L = IS"
(6
0 11

lb

A die is tossed twi ce. Getting a number greate r than 4 is conside red a success.
Tfienthe variance of the probabi lity distribution of thenumber of successes:

~
4/9 n-:;. 2. ,
r= t =i , 'I= x
=<i

2/9 ~
'l-~Lll~
5/9
V--~ = "hf'L = 3 3

0 1/3
l!ffl ii r~i. '1: }
Let x denote the numbe r of tim es heads occur inn tosses of a fa ir co in. If

-...
P(x = 4 ), P(x = S) and P(x = 6) are in A P, t hen the value of n is
~ p(,,;) - P(z••) -t-P("-~•)
(0" + "c, (n"
7
,;i "ls Li)n = ~c'1


10
1 , ~
* +., -(,-•))
= ,,(,-,)} -
~

12 i;, ( o -S )/
~xS + (,-, )(n-s)
' =
0 15 _,.,.-( • - I ,;,(/0)
b l"·•)
11 (n -• ) = n1._ q n + 5o '3 n ~ 21"" + cii =o
n = 1 , n =I~

n r~::a ~t: 'l :o ~

..-.
In a box co ntaining 100 bu lbs, 10 arc defective. The probability th a t out of a sa mpl e
of 5 bulbs, no ne is defective is

9/ 10
P(xc o)
nos

= s;~
lfo) .C~), (~ > =
(9/ 10) 5

•0
( 1/2) 5

10-•

The mean a nd va ri a nce of a binomi al distri buti on a re 4 a nd 3 res pective ly, the n
the proba bil ity of ge tting exactly six successes in the distribution is:

....
For a bi nom ial distribution B (n, p ), np =
4 and varian ce npq ;;;; 4/3. What is th e
proba bil ity P(x ~ S) equ al to? \,_)'I

4/ 3
~ =
(2/3)°
np ~
=1
3 ~ 'l = ~ '? r =¼ ~ l) ; ~


( 1/3)'

P[" ">, 5) = f(s=s) -r ~/x ~•)


(DU) + '(. lk) •
( 1/3)'
= 6 5 I
8 l5
~ (2 /3')

= 6 ~ 2' 2.' 2'


( 3 1"1) = 2%
+ =
3' 3' 3' 31
Th e mea n and stand ard deviation of a binomial di stributi on are 12 and 2
respectively. Wh at is the number of trail s?

0 2 np = 12.

• 12

;Iris
0 24

A stud ent takes a qui z cons isting of 5 multi le choice questi ons. Ea ch questi on has 4
possibl e a nswers. If a students is guessing the answer at ra ndom and answer to
different arc ind ependent, then the probability of at least one co rrect answer is

0 0.23 7

• 0.0007 6

, 0.7627

Q
llilll
Th e mea n and variance of a bin omial distribut ion are 8 and 4 respectively, th en
p(x :;;; I ) is equal to - -

Yl p _. 8
"J¥'z:, nri ~ ~

•• 0
2"

2''
~
np
~
8

r (., ,J
'? 'l ~ i
II
c,
'
f"

{iSO-)''-
i I fl -:... \6

2" 2~
~
(, X I = ~ I

2." 2" 2..''-

J>f'~ 3 l>f"I,

••
- . -80/2 4 3

40/2 43
9: l p:
3
2
3
" =- ~

20/2 43 P lx 3) > = s~ l]) l A) ._


3

0 10/2 43 ~
10 x!..x1- = 9o
ll.'l a., Jl~3
Ill r~~; ~-1;- 1, ~ ~ " ~,
There is a 25% chance that it rains on any particular day. What is the probability that
there is at least one rainy day within a period of 7 days?

Common questions

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To achieve at least an 80% probability of hitting the target with a hit probability of 0.3 per missile, the minimum number of missiles required must satisfy P(at least 1 hit) ≥ 0.8. This is evaluated by finding the smallest n for which 1 - (0.7)^n ≥ 0.8 [Approximated through trial for n ≈ 6].

For a die rolled 8 times where outcomes 5 or 6 are considered successes, the expected number of such outcomes is given by the binomial mean np, where n = 8 and p(success) = 2/6. Thus, the expected value is 8 * (2/6) = 8/3 ≈ 2.67 .

The mean of a random variable in a probability distribution is calculated using the formula Mean = Σ X*P(X), where X is the random variable and P(X) is the corresponding probability .

For a quiz with 5 questions and 4 choices each, the probability of guessing wrong on each question is 3/4. The probability of getting all answers wrong is (3/4)^5. Hence, the probability of at least one correct answer is 1 - (3/4)^5 ≈ 0.7627 .

Bernoulli's trials characterize a random experiment where only two complementary outcomes exist, typically labeled as 'success' and 'failure'. For example, in the rolling of a die 10 times, considering a six as 'success' is a Bernoulli's trial .

In a binomial distribution resulting from Bernoulli's trials on n independent events with a probability of success p, the probability distribution function (PDF) for exactly r successes is given by P(X = r) = nCr * (p^r) * ((1-p)^(n-r)).

A random variable is defined as a real-valued function X that maps a sample space S of an experiment to the real numbers R. For example, when a coin is tossed thrice, and we define the random variable X as the number of heads obtained, X can take values 0, 1, 2, or 3 .

To set up a probability distribution for tossing three coins, define the random variable X as the number of heads. Possible outcomes are X = 0 (TTT), X = 1 (HTT, THT, TTH), X = 2 (HHT, HTH, THH), and X = 3 (HHH) with probabilities P(X=0)=1/8, P(X=1)=3/8, P(X=2)=3/8, and P(X=3)=1/8 .

When a die is tossed twice, and a success is defined as getting a number greater than 4, the probability of success on each trial, p = 2/6 = 1/3. With n=2 trials, the variance of successes is calculated as np(1-p) = 2 * (1/3) * (2/3) = 2/9 .

To find the probability that at least one patient is cured, we calculate 1 minus the probability of curing nobody. The probability that a specific patient is not cured is 0.25, so the probability that none of the 5 patients is cured is (0.25)^5. Therefore, the probability of curing at least one patient is 1 - (0.25)^5 = 1023/1024 .

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