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Engineering Applications of Probability Theorems

The document provides examples of the Total Probability Theorem and Bayes' Theorem in engineering contexts. It illustrates the Total Probability Theorem through failure analysis in redundant systems and quality control in manufacturing, calculating overall failure probabilities. It also demonstrates Bayes' Theorem with structural health monitoring of a bridge and chip testing in electronics, determining the probabilities of damage and defects based on alerts and test results.

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8 views2 pages

Engineering Applications of Probability Theorems

The document provides examples of the Total Probability Theorem and Bayes' Theorem in engineering contexts. It illustrates the Total Probability Theorem through failure analysis in redundant systems and quality control in manufacturing, calculating overall failure probabilities. It also demonstrates Bayes' Theorem with structural health monitoring of a bridge and chip testing in electronics, determining the probabilities of damage and defects based on alerts and test results.

Uploaded by

emmanuelkayode991
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

STA 112 ASSIGNMENT

Topic: Application of Total Probability Theorem and Bayes' Theorem in Engineering

Question:

Provide two examples each in an engineering context that demonstrates the use of the
Total Probability Theorem and Bayes' Theorem.

ANSWERS

- Total Probability Theorem

Example 1: Failure Analysis in Redundant Systems

Context: A spacecraft’s communication system has three redundant subsystems


(A, B, and C). Each

Subsystem has a different probability of being active during a mission:

- P(A active) = 0.5, P(B active) = 0.3, P(C active) = 0.2.

The probability of failure given that a particular subsystem is active is:

- P(Failure|A) = 0.01, P(Failure|B) = 0.02, P(Failure|C) = 0.05.

Question: What is the overall probability that the communication system fails?

Solution:

P(Failure) = P(Failure|A)*P(A) + P(Failure|B)*P(B) + P(Failure|C)*P(C)

= (0.01 * 0.5) + (0.02 * 0.3) + (0.05 * 0.2)

= 0.005 + 0.006 + 0.01 = 0.021

Example 2: Quality Control in Multi-Line Manufacturing

Context: A factory has 3 production lines for semiconductor wafers:

- Line 1: 50% of output, Line 2: 30%, Line 3: 20%.

Defect rates:

- Line 1: 1%, Line 2: 3%, Line 3: 5%.

Question: What is the probability that a randomly selected wafer is defective?

Solution:

P(Defect) = (0.5 * 0.01) + (0.3 * 0.03) + (0.2 * 0.05)

= 0.005 + 0.009 + 0.01 = 0.024


- Bayes’ Theorem

Example 1: Structural Health Monitoring

Context: A bridge’s sensor triggers an alert when detecting abnormal vibration.

- P(Alert | Damage) = 0.98

- P(Alert | No Damage) = 0.10

- P(Damage) = 0.005

Question: If alert is triggered, what’s the probability the bridge actually has
damage?

Solution:

P(Alert) = (0.98 * 0.005) + (0.10 * 0.995) = 0.0049 + 0.0995 = 0.1044

P(Damage | Alert) = 0.0049 / 0.1044 = 0.0469 or 4.69%

Example 2: Chip Testing in Electronics

Context: A chip test is:

- 95% accurate for defective: P(Positive | Defective) = 0.95

- 10% false positive: P(Positive | Good) = 0.10

- Defect rate: P(Defective) = 0.02

Question: Given a positive test, what is the probability the chip is defective?

Solution:

P(Positive) = (0.95 * 0.02) + (0.10 * 0.98) = 0.019 + 0.098 = 0.117

P(Defective | Positive) = 0.019 / 0.117 = 0.1624 or 16.24%

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