Reliability Definition

Reliability is defined as the probability of the system meeting

adequate performance for a specific time period under the specific
operating conditions.

“If a builder builds a house for a man and does not make its construction firm, and the house
which he has built collapses and causes the death of the owner of the house, that builder
shall be put to death.”
—The earliest known law governing reliability by King Hammurabi of Babylon,
4000 years ago.
Prediction & Estimation
Reliability Prediction:
Forecasting the reliability of the system/component at any given
Stage/point of time in future.
- During design phase

Reliability Estimation:
Current assessment of the reliability value of a system/component
- During the working phase
Limitations:
• Reliability theory can’t predict when the system will fail

• A system with higher reliability value can fail-first, then the system
with lower reliability value

• The ideal reliability value of “1” can be achieved only if you don’t
use the system i.e. at t = 0 R = 1
Quality Vs Reliability
Quality Reliability

• Quality is the degree to which the

product is made to its specifications.
• Reliability is the dynamic measure
• Quality is the static measure.
• At t = 0, R = 1
• All products don’t have same quality
at t = 0 • Quality will help to achieve the
design reliability
• A product with poor quality may have
better reliability. Vice versa
Basic Reliability Models
 Failure Distribution:
Reliability also termed as the measure of the system success in providing
its function adequately during its design-life.

𝑛𝑜 is the total number of components subjected to the operation in a time

interval (𝑡 − ∆𝑡, 𝑡)
𝑛𝑠 is the number of surviving components at 𝑡
𝑛𝑓 is the number of failed components at 𝑡
𝑅 𝑡 = 𝑅𝑒𝑙𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑎𝑡 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑡 (Cumulative probability function of success).
To express reliability function mathematically, let 𝑇 is the random variable
denoting time to failure of a component / System.
Then, Reliability at time 𝑡 is,

Where, 𝑅 𝑡 ≥ 0; 𝑅 0 = 1; 𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑡→∞ 𝑅 𝑡 = 0
The Cumulative distribution function (CDF) of failure is the complement of
𝑅 𝑡 .
𝑅 𝑡 +𝐹 𝑡 =1
i.e. 𝑅 𝑡 = 1 − 𝐹(𝑡)
If 𝑇, has a pdf (probability density function) as 𝑓(𝑡), then
𝑡
𝑅 𝑡 =1−න 𝑓 𝜗 𝑑𝜗
0
Taking a derivative with respect to t,
 𝑑𝑅(𝑡)
= −𝑓 𝑡
𝑑𝑡
which is also
𝑑𝑅(𝑡) 𝑑𝐹(𝑡)
𝑓 𝑡 = − =
𝑑𝑡 𝑑𝑡
The above function describes the shape of the failure distribution.

The PDF of f(t) has the following properties.

∞
𝑓 𝑡 ≥ 0; න 𝑓 𝑡 𝑑𝑡 = 1
0
and, for given PDF 𝑓 𝑡 , following functions can be derived
𝑡 ∞
𝐹 𝑡 = ‫׬‬0 𝑓 𝜗 𝑑𝜗 and 𝑅 𝑡 = ‫𝑓 𝑡׬‬ 𝜗 𝑑𝜗
R(t) is used when reliabilities are computed;
F(t) is used when failure probabilities are computed.
 Hazard rate function
Hazard rate function or failure rate is extensively used in reliability
computations.
It provides the instantaneous failure rate at any given time t.
𝑡
As we deduced earlier, 𝑅 𝑡 = ‫׬‬0 𝑓 𝜗 𝑑𝜗
and
the probability of the system/component will fail in a given interval of time
(𝑡, ∆𝑡), given that the system/component* survived till 𝑡,
𝑡+∆𝑡
න 𝑓 𝑡 𝑑𝑡 = 𝑅𝑡 − 𝑅𝑡+∆𝑡
𝑡
(* conditional probability)
 R(t) − R(t + ∆𝑡)
𝑃𝑟 𝑡 ≤ 𝑇 ≤ 𝑡 + ∆𝑡ȁ𝑇 ≥ 𝑡 =
𝑅 𝑡 . ( 𝑡 + ∆𝑡 − 𝑡)

R(t) − R(t + ∆𝑡)

=
𝑅 𝑡 . ∆𝑡
This function gives the “conditional” probability of failure per unit time i.e.
failure rate.
Hazard rate is then defined as the limit of the failure rates as ∆𝑡 tends to be
zero.
Now the Hazard rate/ instantaneous failure rate is given as,

R(t) − R(t + ∆𝑡) 1 R(t) − R(t + ∆𝑡) 1 𝑑

𝜆(𝑡) = lim = = − 𝑅(𝑡)
∆𝑡→0 𝑅 𝑡 . ∆𝑡 𝑅(𝑡) ∆𝑡 𝑅(𝑡) 𝑑𝑡
 𝑑𝑅(𝑡)
from the expression 𝑓 𝑡 = − ,
𝑑𝑡
The Hazard rate is expressed as,
𝒇(𝒕)
𝝀(𝒕) =
𝑹(𝒕)
To relate /deduce the R(t) from 𝝀𝒕 :
1 𝑑 − 𝑑 𝑅(𝑡)
𝜆(𝑡) = − 𝑅(𝑡) ; 𝜆(𝑡) 𝑑𝑡 =
𝑅(𝑡) 𝑑𝑡 𝑅(𝑡)

Integrating both side of the expression,

𝑡 𝑅(𝑡) − 𝑑 𝑅(𝜗) 𝑡
‫׬‬0 𝜆 𝜗 𝑑𝜗 = ‫׬‬1 𝑅(𝜗)
= − ln 𝑅(𝑡) ; − ‫׬‬0 𝜆 𝜗 𝑑𝜗 = ln 𝑅(𝑡)
Taking “ln” out:
𝒕
− ‫𝝑𝒅 𝝑 𝝀 𝟎׬‬
𝑹 𝒕 =𝒆
Cumulative & Average failure rates
The cumulative failure rate over a time period of t is
𝑡
𝐿(𝑡) = න 𝜆 𝜗 𝑑𝜗
0
The average failure rate (AFR), defined between 𝑡1 & 𝑡2

𝑡
1 ln 𝑅(𝑡1 ) − ln 𝑅(𝑡2 )
𝐴𝐹𝑅 𝑡1 , 𝑡2 = න 𝜆 𝜗 𝑑𝜗 =
𝑡2 − 𝑡1 0 𝑡2 − 𝑡1
And if we let 𝑡1 =0 and 𝑡2 = 𝑇 , then AFR (t) is
ln 𝑅(0)−ln 𝑅(𝑡) 𝐿(𝑡)
𝐴𝐹𝑅 𝑡 = =
𝑡−0 𝑡
Central tendency of failure probability
MTTF (Mean Time To Failure)
• MTTF is one of the measures of reliability.
• MTTF is the expected time* between two successive failures when the
system/component is non-repairable.
• MTBF (mean time between failures) related to the repairable systems.
(*Expected time is the Mean of the PDF f(t))
𝑛
1
𝑀𝑇𝑇𝐹 = ෍ 𝑡𝑖
𝑛
𝑖=1
n = total number identical non-repairable systems observed
𝑡𝑖=1,2,3,….𝑛 = observed times to failure
Since 𝑇𝑖 is a random variable, the MTTF can be determined by
∞ ∞
𝑀𝑇𝑇𝐹 = ‫׬‬0 𝑡 𝑓 𝑡 𝑑𝑡 ; 𝑀𝑇𝑇𝐹 = ‫׬‬0 𝑅 𝑡 𝑑𝑡
Median:
• Median is another central tendency of the failure probability (pdf).
• Median divides the probability distribution into 2 halves, with 50% of
failures occur before median time and 50% after the median time.
𝑹 𝒕𝒎𝒆𝒅 = 𝟎. 𝟓
• This measure of central tendency is used when the pdf is highly skewed.
Mode:
• The most likely observed failure time (𝑡𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒 ) defined as the mode of the
distribution.
• The probability of failure for a small interval of time centered around the
mode is higher than that of an interval of the same size located elsewhere
within the failure time distribution.
• The mode is obtained using the expression : 𝒇 𝒕𝒎𝒐𝒅𝒆 = 𝐦𝐚𝐱 𝒇(𝒕)
𝟎≤𝒕≤
Variance / Standard Deviation
• It is another measure of the failure distribution.
• The variance an average squared distance a failure time will be from the
mean (MTTF).
• It is the measure of spread / dispersion of the failure times about the mean
∞
𝜎 2 = න (𝑡 − 𝑀𝑇𝑇𝐹)2 𝑓 𝑡 𝑑𝑡
0
Also,
∞
𝜎 2 = න (𝑡)2 𝑓 𝑡 𝑑𝑡 − (𝑀𝑇𝑇𝐹)2
0
The square root of the variance is Standard deviation
 Conditional Reliability
Conditional reliability is a concept of assessing the reliability of a
component/system after certain time-period.
The time period may be burn-in period 𝑇0 or a warranty period 𝑇0
It can be defined as the reliability of a system given that it operated for time 𝑇0

𝑅 𝑡ห𝑇0 = 𝑃𝑟 𝑇 > 𝑇0 + 𝑡ห𝑇 > 𝑇0

𝑃𝑟 𝑇 > 𝑇0 + 𝑡 𝑅(𝑇0 + 𝑡)
= =
𝑃𝑟 𝑇 > 𝑇0 𝑅(𝑇0 )
𝑇 +𝑡
(− ‫׬‬0 0 𝜆 𝜗 𝑑𝜗) 𝑇0 +𝑡
𝑒
= 𝑇 = 𝑒𝑥𝑝 − න 𝜆 𝜗 𝑑𝜗
(− ‫׬‬0 0 𝜆 𝜗 𝑑𝜗)
𝑒 𝑇0
Mean residual life
• MRL is a measure of the reliability characteristic of a component /system.
• It is mathematically expressed as,
𝐿 𝑡 = 𝐸 [𝑇 − 𝑡ȁ𝑇 ≥ 𝑡] , 𝑡 ≥ 0
• The mean residual function is the expected remaining life, T−t, given that the
product, component, or a system has survived to time t.
• The conditional p.d.f. for any time 𝜏 ≥ 𝑡 is
𝑓(𝑡)
𝑓𝑇ȁ𝑇≥𝑡 𝜏 = 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝜏 ≥ 𝑡
𝑅(𝑡)
• The conditional expectation of the function 𝑓(𝜏) is
∞ ∞
𝑓(𝜏)
𝐸 [𝑇 อ𝑇 ≥ 𝑡] = න 𝜏. 𝑓𝑇ȁ𝑇≥𝑡 𝜏 𝑑𝜏 = න 𝜏. 𝑑𝜏
𝑡 𝑡 𝑅(𝑡)
• Now MRL of a system can be obtained by deducting the survival time t from
conditional expectation function. And expressed as,

𝐿 𝑡 = 𝐸 [𝑇 − 𝑡ȁ𝑇 ≥ 𝑡]

∞ ∞
𝑓 𝜏 𝑓(𝜏)
=න 𝜏−𝑡 . 𝑑𝜏 = න 𝜏. 𝑑𝜏 − 𝑡
𝑡 𝑅 𝑡 𝑡 𝑅(𝑡)
∞
1
𝐿 𝑡 = න 𝜏. 𝑓 𝜏 𝑑𝜏 − 𝑡
𝑅(𝑡) 𝑡
Residual MTTF
𝑅(𝑡ห𝑇0 ) is a reliability function with a condition (i.e system/component
survived till time 𝑇0 ), the Mean (MTTF) will be the mean remaining
lifetime/mean residual life.
Residual MTTF is given by,
∞
𝑀𝑇𝑇𝐹 𝑇0 = න 𝑅 𝑡ห𝑇0 𝑑𝑡
0

∞ 𝑅(𝜗)
= ‫) 𝑇(𝑅 𝑇׬‬ 𝑑𝜗
0 0

1 ∞
= ‫𝜗𝑑)𝜗(𝑅 𝑇׬‬ ; where 𝜗 = 𝑡 + 𝑇0
𝑅(𝑇0 ) 0
Bathtub curve

Decreasing failure Constant failure rate - CFR Increasing failure rate - IFR
- rate - DFR
Summary of the reliability relationship
Constant failure rate models
CFR models (based Exponential Distribution)
• A failure distribution that has a constant failure rate is called an exponential
distribution
• This distribution dominates during the useful-life of the system/component.
• Failures occur here due to random events.
In exponential failure model, the hazard rate 𝜆 𝑡 = 𝜆; where 𝑡 ≥ 𝑜 & 𝜆 > 0
𝑡
𝑅 𝑡 = 𝑒𝑥𝑝 − ‫׬‬0 𝜆 𝑑𝜐 = exp[−𝜆𝑡], 𝑡 ≥ 0
𝑓 𝑡 = 𝜆. exp[−𝜆𝑡]
∞
1
𝑀𝑇𝑇𝐹 = න 𝑒 −𝜆𝑡 𝑑𝑡 =
0 𝜆
∞
2
1 2 −𝜆𝑡 1
𝜎 = න (𝑡 − ) 𝜆𝑒 𝑑𝑡 = 2
0 𝜆 𝜆
• Contd…
From the previous expressions: Standard deviation is 𝜎 2
For Exponential failure rate …
Standard deviation (𝜎) = 1Τ𝜆 i.e. MTTF
So, R(MTTF) = ? Find….
Design-life 𝑡𝑅 is
𝑅(𝑡𝑅 ) = exp −𝜆𝑡𝑅 = 𝑅
1
𝑡𝑅 = − ln 𝑅
𝜆
When R= 0.5 i.e. at 𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑑 ,
1
𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑑 = ln 0.5 = ? Find…
𝜆
The median is always less than the mean in exponential distribution, and so it
is skewed to the right.
Memory-lessness
• In CFR, Time to failure of a system / component is not dependent on how
long the system / component is operating.
• Failure or operating history is irrelevant in this CFR models.
• Mathematically,
𝑅(𝑡+𝑇0 ) exp(−𝜆(𝑡+𝑇0 )
𝑅(𝑡 ቤ𝑇0 ) = = = ? Find…
𝑅(𝑇0 ) exp(−𝜆𝑇0 )
𝑅(𝑡ȁ𝑇0 ) = 𝑅(𝑡)
Time to failure depends only on the length of the operating time (t) and on
the prior-history/age.
Failure modes:
• A system (with different components) i.e. a complex system or component
(different characteristics) displays various “modes of failures”.
Eg.:
Load-carrying bearing or a cutting tool, may fail due to wear-out or when the
applied stress exceeds the design strength of the component material,
resulting in catastrophic-failure*.
(*Catastrophic failure is a failure that destroys the system, such as a missile
failure).
• In failure analysis, the approach should be to segregate the failures according
to the mechanisms (in components) & (in systems) according to components
causing failures.. These are referred as failure modes.
There are three necessary conditions for this model:
(i) Failure modes are independent of each other.
(ii) The unit fails when the first of all failure mechanisms reaches the
failure state.
(iii) Each failure mode has its own failure time distribution.
Consider,
A unit that exhibits n failure modes and that the time to failure 𝑇𝑖 due to failure
mechanism i is distributed according to 𝐹𝑖 (𝑡) , i = 1, 2,…, n.
The failure time of the unit is the minimum of {T , T , …, T } and the failure
1 2 n

distribution function F(t) is

The reliability function is,

𝑛

𝑅 𝑡 = ෑ 𝑅𝑖 (𝑡)
𝑖=𝑛 𝑡

𝑅𝑖 𝑡 = exp[− න 𝜆𝑖 𝜗 𝑑𝜗]
0
R(t) is defined as the product of the probabilities, is the probability that none
of the n failure modes occurs before time t.
 𝑛 𝑡
𝑅 𝑡 = ෑ exp[− න 𝜆𝑖 𝜗 𝑑𝜗]
𝑖=𝑛 0

𝑡 𝑛
= exp[− න ෍ 𝜆𝑖 𝜗 𝑑𝜗]
0 𝑖=1

The failure/hazard rate function of 𝑅 𝑡 is,

𝑛

𝜆 𝑡 = ෍ 𝜆𝑖 𝑡
𝑖=1
i.e.,
The hazard rate function of the n independent failure modes can be
determined by summing the n hazard rate functions.
Failure modes with CFR models
A system consist of 𝑛 sub-system/components, they are connected serially
and each having a constant failure rate 𝜆𝑖 .
Hazard rate function of this system will be
𝑛

𝜆 𝑡 = 𝜆 = ෍ 𝜆𝑖
𝑖=1
𝑡
And, 𝑅 𝑡 = 𝑒𝑥𝑝 − ‫׬‬0 𝜆 𝑑𝑡 = 𝑒𝑥𝑝 −𝜆𝑡
1 1 1 1
Where 𝑀𝑇𝑇𝐹 = = 𝑛 = 𝑛 ; 𝑀𝑇𝑇𝐹𝑖 =
𝜆 ෌𝑖=1 𝜆𝑖 1 𝜆𝑖
෎ 𝑀𝑇𝑇𝐹
𝑖
𝑖=1
If all sub-systems/components are having identical failure rate (𝜆∗ ),
∗ 1
Then, 𝜆 = n𝜆 and MTTF =
𝑛𝜆∗
Failure on Demand
Repetitive loading
• If 𝑝 is the probability of failure of a system by placing a load/stress on the system;
• And the (independent) loads/stress are applied constantly in fixed intervals of time;
• This 2 conditions results in the exponential reliability function
𝑅 = 1 − 𝑝 ; for a single load
For 𝑛 loads 𝑅𝑛 = 1 − 𝑝 𝑛 = 𝑒 𝑛 ln(1−𝑝)
*For smaller ln(1 − 𝑝), ln(1 − 𝑝) ~ − 𝑝 ; and 𝑅𝑛 = 𝑒 −𝑛𝑝
𝑡
If Δ𝑡 is the time between applied loads, then 𝑛 =
Δ𝑡
𝑡 𝑝
− Δ𝑡 𝑝 − Δ𝑡 𝑡
For 𝑅 𝑡 = 𝑒 =𝑒 = 𝑒 − 𝜆𝑡 ;
𝑝
where 𝜆 = is a constant failure rate.
Δ𝑡
* Based on first-order Taylor series approximation around the origin
Assignment
Renewal Process
Poisson distribution for spare parts management
Redundancy &CFR models
Reliability Bounds
CFR model can be applied to non-CFR models to provide bounds to the
system reliability. Let us assume,

Hence, if the hazard rate function is bounded, so the reliability function too.
Two parameter exponential distribution
• Guaranteed lifetime:
For systems/components, if there is a time 𝑡0 , until which they never fail, then
𝑡0 is a threshold time for success. It is also termed as guaranteed lifetime.
• 𝑡0 shifts the Reliability distribution to the right of 𝑡0 in the time-line. So, 𝑡0 is
the location parameter in such cases.
• And hence, in the density function, 𝑡 is replaced by 𝑡 − 𝑡0 , now the random
variable (failure time) will have a domain of 𝑡 ≥ 𝑡0 .
𝑑𝑅(𝑡)
Now for exponential distribution, 𝑓 𝑡 = = λ𝑒 −𝜆(𝑡−𝑡0) ; 0 < 𝑡0 ≤ 𝑡 < ∞
𝑑𝑡
Reliability function, 𝑅(𝑡) = 𝑒 −𝜆(𝑡−𝑡0 )
∞ 1
MTTF is 𝑀𝑇𝑇𝐹 = ‫ 𝑒𝑡𝜆 𝑡׬‬−𝜆(𝑡−𝑡0) 𝑑𝑡 = 𝑡0 + (assignment)
𝜆
0
𝑅 𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑑 = 𝑒 −𝜆(𝑡 𝑚𝑒𝑑 −𝑡0 ) = 0.5
 𝑙𝑛0.5 0.69315
𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑑 = 𝑡0 + = 𝑡0 +
−𝜆 𝜆

𝑙𝑛0.5
Design life 𝑡𝑅 , 𝑡𝑅 = 𝑡0 +
−𝜆
Variance and standard deviation? (assignment)
 Time Dependent Failure Models
- In time dependent hazard rate models the hazard rate functions 𝜆(𝑡) are
not constant over the time.
- And it essentially differs from the exponential failure law.
- These failure models are best described by,
• Weibull distribution
• Standard normal distribution
• Log-Normal distribution.
Weibull Distribution
- Most versatile distribution
- It can be used in both CFR and DFR
- The PDF of the function for Weibull data is given by,
𝛽 𝑡 𝛽−1 −( 𝑡 )𝛽
𝑓 𝑡 = .𝑒 𝜃
𝜃 𝜃
𝑡
Reliability function using PDF is 𝑅 𝑡 = ‫׬‬0 𝑓 𝜗 𝑑𝜗
𝑡 𝛽
−
𝑅 𝑡 = 𝑒 𝜃
𝑓(𝑡)
Hazard rate function, 𝜆(𝑡) =
𝑅(𝑡)
𝛽 𝑡 𝛽−1
𝝀 𝒕 =
𝜃 𝜃
 𝛽 𝑡 𝛽−1
𝝀 𝒕 = ; t≥ 0
𝜃 𝜃
Here, 𝛽 is referred as shape parameter; 𝛽 > 0
𝜃 𝑖𝑠 𝑆𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑟; 𝜃 > 0

Depending on the 𝛽 value the Weibull distribution will behave like exponential,
normal, skewed distributions.
The scale parameter 𝜃 influences both mean and the spread/disperse of the
distribution.
θ is also referred as chracteristic life. and has units identical to failure time 𝑇

𝑀𝑇𝑇𝐹 = 𝜃𝛤 1 + 1Τ𝛽 and 𝜎 2 = 𝜃 2 𝛤 1 + 2Τ𝛽 − (𝛤 1 + 1Τ𝛽 )2

Where 𝛤 𝑥 is a gamma function (use tables for gamma values)
𝛤 𝑥 = (𝑥 − 1)𝛤 𝑥
Design Life - 𝒕𝑹 (Weibull):
For a desired reliability of R
𝑡 𝛽
−
𝑅 𝑡 = 𝑒 𝜃 =𝑅
1
𝑡𝑅 = 𝜃 − ln 𝑅 𝛽

When R= 0.99, 𝑡0.99 is referred as B1 life (where 1%of the population failed)
Likewise, 𝑡0.999 is called as B.1 life (where 0.1%of the population failed)
Median time to failure:
1
If R= 0.5, 𝑡0.50 = 𝜃 − ln 0.5 𝛽
1
= 𝜃 0.69315 𝛽
Burn-in screening for Weibull
For a burn-in period 𝑇0 or a warranty period 𝑇0 ,
The reliability function is given as
𝑇0 +𝑡
𝑅(𝑇0 + 𝑡)
𝑅 𝑡ห𝑇0 = = 𝑒𝑥𝑝 − න 𝜆 𝜗 𝑑𝜗
𝑅(𝑇0 ) 𝑇0
𝑡+𝑇0 𝛽
−
𝑒 𝜃 𝑡+𝑇0 𝛽 𝑇0 𝛽
For Weibull data, = = 𝑒𝑥𝑝 − +
𝑇0 𝛽 𝜃 𝜃
−
𝑒 𝜃
Example
Failure modes:
For a system with n components, serially connected and having n independent
failure modes, each having an independent Weibull distribution with Shape
parameter 𝛽and scale parameter 𝜃𝑖
𝑛 𝛽 𝑡 𝛽−1 1 𝛽
𝜆 𝑡 = σ𝑖=1 = 𝛽𝑡𝛽−1 σ𝑛𝑖=1
𝜃𝑖 𝜃𝑖 𝜃𝑖
1 𝛽
• This Hazard rate function 𝜆 𝑡 = = 𝛽𝑡 𝛽−1 σ𝑛𝑖=1 is having the shape
𝜃𝑖
𝛽 −1/𝛽
1
parameter of 𝛽 and the Characteristic life of 𝜃 = σ𝑛𝑖=1 .
𝜃𝑖
• This equation and failure mode property of Weibull components is valid only
when the components have same 𝛽 shape parameter.
• If the components have different shape parameters 𝛽𝑖 , then the system failure
distribution will not be Weibull.
Identical Weibull Components/sub-systems:
𝑛
𝛽 𝑡 𝛽−1
𝜆 𝑡 = ෍
𝜃 𝜃
𝑖=1
𝑛𝛽
= 𝛽 (𝑡)𝛽−1
𝜃
𝑡 𝛽
𝑅(𝑡) = exp(−𝑛 )
𝜃
Three-Parameter Weibull distribution
𝑡−𝑡0 𝛽 𝑀𝑇𝑇𝐹 = 𝑡0 + 𝜃𝛤 1 + 1Τ𝛽
−
𝑅 𝑡 = 𝑒 𝜃 ; t≥ 𝑡0 Variance is same as in the two-parameter Weibull
𝛽 𝑡−𝑡0 𝛽−1 Find:
𝝀 𝒕 = ; t≥ 𝑡0 td
𝜃 𝜃 tmed
𝛽 𝑡 − 𝑡0 𝛽−1 −(𝑡−𝑡0 )𝛽
𝑓 𝑡 = 𝑒 𝜃
𝜃 𝜃
Assignment
Reliability analysis for system following:

1. Standard normal distribution

2. Log-normal distribution
System reliability
System:
A system (or a product) is a collection of components arranged according to a specific design
in order to achieve desired functions with acceptable performance and reliability metrics.

Two types of designs for same functional output &

same reliability: System reliability depends on:
1. Minimum number of high-quality components to • Type of component
make higher reliability system • Quality of component
2. Higher number of low-quality components to • Design configuration
make higher reliability system

System configuration:
1. Series system 2. Parallel system [Link]-parallel /parallel-series systems 4. k-out-of-n
system 5. Complex system
Reliability Block diagram (RBD):
RBD is a graphical representation (by a simple rectangle) of the components
of the system and how they are connected (using arrows).
A block (represented by a rectangle) does not show any details of the
component or the subsystem it represents. The arrow shows the flow of the
function.
Reliability Graph:
The reliability graph is a line representation of the blocks (RBD) that indicates the path on
the graph.

Series System:
A series system is composed of n components (or subsystems) connected in series.
In series system all components must function for the system to function. This means that
all components are critical in the system.
The reliability of the system should be determined by getting the probability of success of
every component/subsystem of the system, while evaluating. Let as assume following
notations:
For series system with n components, the reliability can be expressed as:

When the components success/failure are independent from other components, then

If the components are having constant failure rate:

𝑅𝑠 𝑡 = 𝑒 −𝜆1 𝑡 . 𝑒 −𝜆2 𝑡 . 𝑒 −𝜆3 𝑡 ….. 𝑒 −𝜆𝑛 𝑡 = 𝑒 − ෌ 𝜆𝑖 𝑡

Alternatively, we can find the system reliability by computing system failure probability and
deducting it from unity.
Parallel Systems:
If two or more components are in parallel (i.e. redundant) configuration the system will fail
if all components in that configuration fails.
Even if one component works the system will function.
𝑅𝑠 = 1 − 𝑃𝑓
= 1 − 1 − 𝑃1 1 − 𝑃2 … . 1 − 𝑃𝑛
= 1 − 1 − 𝑅1 1 − 𝑅2 … . 1 − 𝑅𝑛

𝑅𝑠 = 1 − ෑ(1 − 𝑅𝑖 )
𝑖=1
Reliability Graph of parallel Systems If all the units are identical, then
𝑅𝑠 = 1 − (1 − 𝑅)𝑛
RBD of Parallel System

If a system is having more number of units than the required number, this is termed as redundancy.
What is active redundancy?
Parallel-Series systems:
A system is composed of a combination of series and parallel subsystems.
The figure here shows Parallel- Series system

A parallel–series system consists of m parallel paths. Each

path has n units connected in series.

P(𝑥𝑖𝑗 ) be the reliability of component j (j = 1, 2,…, n) in

path i (i = 1, 2,…, m) and 𝑥𝑖𝑗 be an indicator that
component j in path i is operational.

The reliability of path i is given as (series system):

If failure of the path i is given as 𝑃ഥ𝑖 , Then the system

Alternatively, we can write the reliability reliability is given as,
equation as,

If all units are identical and the reliability of a single unit

is p, then
Series-Parallel System:

Series–parallel system consists of n subsystems in

series with m units in parallel in each subsystem
The reliability equation is derived as,

where i = 1, 2, …, n and j = 1, 2, …, m and P(𝑥𝑖𝑗 )

is the probability that component j in subsystem i
is operational.

If all the components of the system are identical

and having a reliability of P, then

• In general, series–parallel systems have higher reliabilities than parallel–series systems when both have
equal number of units and each unit has the same probability of operating properly.
Mixed-parallel system:
A mixed-parallel system has no specific arrangement of units other than the fact that they
are connected in parallel and series configurations.
Figure illustrates two possible mixed-parallel systems (a and b) for eight units.

Problem:
Given six identical units each having a reliability of 0.85,
determine the reliability of three systems resulting from the
arrangements of the units in parallel–series, series–parallel, and
mixed-parallel configurations.
Reliability determination of k-out-of-n systems:
In a system with n components (iid configuration) which are arranged parallel, the system
requirement is only k components.
The system fails if k or more components fails.
If k =1 complete redundancy occurs and if k = n the system become series.
In n components, if each component is independent with R as constant probability of
success (reliability), then the probability of exactly x components operating is:

𝑛 𝑥 𝑛!
𝑃 𝑥 = 𝑅 (1 − 𝑅)𝑛−𝑥 ; 𝑛𝑥 = Types:
𝑥 𝑥! 𝑛−𝑥 ! K-out-of-n: F systems (consecutive)
The reliability of the system is given as, K-out-of-n systems (non-consecutive)
𝑛 K-out-of-n: balanced systems
𝑅𝑠 = ෍ 𝑃(𝑥)
𝑥=𝑘
Complex systems reliability :
▪ The type of systems of previously studied topics can be reduced to either parallel system
or series system to determine the reliability of the system.
▪ Some system design neither reduced to series or parallel system. These systems are called
as Complex systems.
▪ Telecommunications systems, computer networks, electric power utility systems, and
water utility distribution systems are typical examples of complex networks.
▪ Some of these networks are referred to as directed networks when the flow from one node
to another is unidirectional.
▪ When the flow is bidirectional, these networks are termed as undirected.