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Croatia Sovereign Risk Scoring Model

The document provides a scoring model to assess the sovereign risk of Croatia across several economic indicators. Croatia scores highest in categories like GDP growth between 2-4% per year, unemployment under 5%, inflation between 0-5%, and external debt under 30% of GDP. Areas needing improvement include negative real exchange rate movements over 15%, declining foreign reserves over 10%, and a current account deficit over 4% of GDP. Overall, the analysis finds some strengths but also identifies fiscal pressures that increase Croatia's sovereign risk profile.

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Ana Nives Radović
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450 views6 pages

Croatia Sovereign Risk Scoring Model

The document provides a scoring model to assess the sovereign risk of Croatia across several economic indicators. Croatia scores highest in categories like GDP growth between 2-4% per year, unemployment under 5%, inflation between 0-5%, and external debt under 30% of GDP. Areas needing improvement include negative real exchange rate movements over 15%, declining foreign reserves over 10%, and a current account deficit over 4% of GDP. Overall, the analysis finds some strengths but also identifies fiscal pressures that increase Croatia's sovereign risk profile.

Uploaded by

Ana Nives Radović
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

SAMPLE SOVEREIGN RISK SCORING MODEL

Country: Croatia

1.

Score:

Economy

For the most recent available 12 month period:


Currency:
Real exchange rate movement was:
a) Positive .3
b) Negative 0- 5%......................................2
c) Negative 6-15%...................................1
d) Negative more than 15% ...0

Sources:
[Link]
GDP:
GDP real growth:
a) Grew by more than 4% per year ....3
b) Grew by 2-4% per year ....2
c) Staged..1
d) Declined..0

Sources:
[Link]
Unemployment (best estimate available) was:
a) Less than 5%.......................................3
b) 5-10%..................................................2
c) 11-15%................................................1

d) More than 15%..................................0

Sources:
[Link]

MONEY
Inflation was:
a) 0-5% per year.3
b) 6-10% per year2
c) 10-15 per year.1
d) More than 15% per year .....0

Sources:
[Link]
The most recent real lending rate was:
a) Positive or negative by less than 3%....3
b) Negative by 3-5%...................................2
c) Negative by 6-10%...............................1
d) Negative by more than 10% .0

Sources:
[Link]
If the country had a current account deficit, foreign reserves covered:
a) Surplus/more than 100% .3
b) 75-100%.............................................2
c) 50-75%...............................................1
d) Less than 50%....................................0

Sources: [Link] -foreign reserves and gold

[Link] -current account


balance
[Link]

Foreign reserves were:


a) Steady or increasing.3
b) Declining 1-5%....................................2
c) Declining 6-10%..................................1
d) Declining more than 10%....................0

Sources:
[Link]
[Link]
Total external debt is:
a) less than 30% of GDP..3
b) 30-75% of GDP...2
c) 75-100% of GDP....1
d) More than 100% of GDP.0

Sources:
[Link] external debt
[Link]

Over the past 3 years, total external debt as a proportion of GDP:


a) Fell....3
b) Remained constant....2
c) Rose 1-5%.............................................1

d) Rose more than 5% points......0

Sources:
[Link] or [Link]
BALANCE OF PAYMENT
Compared to exports, imports were:
a) Smaller or in balance..3
b) 1-10% larger.....2
c) 11-20% larger.1
d) More than 20% larger.....0

Sources:
[Link]

The current account was:


a) In surplus or balance..3
b) In deficit by 1-2% of GDP..2
c) In deficit by 3-4% of GDP...1
d) In deficit by more than 4% of GDP0

Sources: [Link]
Government finance:
National government finance was:
a) In surplus or balance 3
b) In deficit by 1-2% of GDP2
c) In deficit by 2-4% of GDP.1
d) In deficit by more than 4% of GDP...0

Sources:

[Link]
If government finances are in deficit, they have been so far:
a) Surplus/1 year or less.3
b) 2-5 years....1
c) More than 5 years.0

Sources:
[Link]

Over the past 3 years, the ratio of fixed investments to GDP has:
a) Increased....3
b) stagnated1
c) decreased...0

Sources:
[Link]

The ratio of total trade (exports +imports) to GDP was:


a) more than 75% 3
b) 51-75%.................................................2
c) 25-50%................................................1
d) Less than 25%......................................0

Sources:
[Link]
The annual domestic savings rate was:
a) More than 30%.........................................4

b) 20-30%....................................................3
c) 15-20....2
d) Less than 15%..........................................0

Sources:
[Link]

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