Southern Cape Insurance Risk Insights
Southern Cape Insurance Risk Insights
There is widespread agreement that effectively tackling climate change requires not only reducing green-
house gas emissions, but also adapting social, ecological and economic systems.
With a very high degree of scientific certainty, it is expected that if there is no immediate and significant
reduction in emissions, the physical impacts of climate change will be too strong to adapt to. Equally, it is
expected that the climate will change no matter how successful governments and the international com-
munity are in reducing emissions. This means that certain impacts of climate change are now unavoidable,
and that there is an urgent need to adapt to them.
Adaptation is about making livelihoods, communities, societies and economies resilient to the adverse im-
pacts of a changing climate. Essentially, climate change-related risks can be viewed in two categories of
environmental change. The first relates to an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather
events such as floods, storms, hurricanes and droughts. The second relates to ongoing, long-term changes
including sea level rise, desertification and the disappearance of glaciers as freshwater reservoirs. To be
holistic, adaptation efforts need to address both categories.
Insurance is a natural form of adaptation to risks. These risks include climate change-related risks, particu-
larly the first category described above. By transferring risks to the insurance industry, individuals, house-
holds and businesses obtain a financial safety net in case livelihoods, business operations and other eco-
nomic activities are impacted by weather-related events. Financial risk transfer is only one form of benefit
that the insurance industry brings to its clients. Physical risk management—including the identification,
assessment, prevention and reduction of risks—is the bedrock of insurance. Thus, enhancing physical risk
management directly underpins the financial risk transfer benefit afforded by insurance coverage. Proactive
risk management measures benefit insurance clients and the communities within which such measures
are implemented. In other words, reducing risk benefits all parties exposed, be it clients, communities, the
insurance industry or governments.
Yet there are constraints to the role insurance can play. So-called slow onset events such as sea level rise,
desertification and glacier disappearance pose insurability issues. Insurance is a commercial activity and
clients need to have access to and be able to afford insurance. The stark reality is that those most vulnerable
to climate change-related risks—low-income communities in developing countries—are those that have
hardly access to and least able to afford insurance. For example, Africa is the region with the lowest insur-
ance penetration and insurance density.
These constraints, and the fact that insurance markets are highly regulated and dependent on prudential
policy and regulatory frameworks, make a case for public-private approaches to risk management and risk
transfer solutions. It is therefore instructive to explore how the insurance industry can work together effec-
tively with local and national governments and the intergovernmental community to develop and implement
such solutions, and bring them to scale.
Adaptation efforts stemming from the international level such as the loss and damage work programme of
the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the climate change and ecosystem-based adaptation
work programmes of UNEP, and the Principles for Sustainable Insurance Initiative and climate change work
programme of UNEP Finance Initiative; and efforts from the local level such as this report on insurance and
the risk landscape in the Southern Cape of South Africa, all have a common thread—they pursue a holistic
and integrated approach to risk management in order to build climate and disaster-resilient communities.
The launch of this collaborative report during the 2011 UN Climate Change Conference in South Africa of-
fers a concrete and timely example of how working together can bring about effective adaptation where it
makes a real impact—on the ground.
Paul Clements-Hunt
Head
United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative
RISK
Understand and describe the socio-ecological risk
landscape – spatially, temporally and systemically
RESPONSE
Determine the potential response by the formal insurance
industry to reducing risk and improving resilience of the socio-
ecological landscape and that of its business in the area
This report presents key insights gained from the initial assessment phase of this project and
the additional contributions from the UNEP FI, making this a unique combination of a local study
teamed with a global perspective showing how insurers can help build climate and disaster-resilient
communities.
These increased risks have been associated with the following phenomena:
1 Increased human occupation of localities that are exposed to extreme events, and the increase
in economic value associated with them;
2 An increase in the number of extreme events, possibly linked to large scale changes to earth
systems (e.g. climate change); and
3 Changes to the regulating ecosystems (e.g. wetlands, riparian zones and natural vegetation)
that provide buffering capacity to extreme events. These changes are primarily linked to rapid
global changes in land cover (MEA 2005).
350 FLOODS
Oceania America
300
Europe Africa
250 Asia
Number of events
200
150
100
50
0
9
9
9
-6
-0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-7
-8
-9
60
00
10
20
30
40
50
70
80
90
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
50 WILD FIRES
45
Oceania America
40 Europe Africa
35 Asia
30
Number of events
25
20
15
10
5
0
9
9
9
-6
-0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-7
-8
-9
60
00
10
20
30
40
50
70
80
90
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
Accordingly, the global insurance industry is likely to have a key role to play in this endeavour. And yet,
the insurance industry will itself need to find ways to carefully navigate these turbulent times. Globally
insurers have observed an upward trend in weather-related insured losses due to the increase in fre-
quency and intensity of extreme weather events and the increasing economic cost associated with them.
Furthermore, these weather-related losses have been growing faster than insurance penetration (Mills
2005) while insurance density remains low especially in developing countries. This is placing pressure
on the availability and affordability of insurance, slowing growth in the industry, and most significantly,
shifting greater risk exposure onto governments and individuals.
The insurance industry has responded to this challenge by primarily focusing on refining its risk
predictions and assessments, with a view to more appropriate pricing and contracting of risks (Mills
2009, Petherick 2011). Unfortunately, a considerable gap still exists between the scale and accuracy of
predictions that climate scientists can provide and what is required by the insurance industry (Peth-
erick 2011).
We embarked on a research project with South Africa’s largest short-term insurer, Santam, in the Eden
District Municipality of South Africa (Figure 2) with a view to exploring these issues at a landscape
level. The objectives of our study were twofold:
1 To understand how changes in Eden’s landscape were affecting current and future risk
exposure to wild fire, flood and sea storm; and
2 To understand how best the insurance industry could respond to ensure its own viability, as well
as build the resilience of the socio-ecological system as a whole.
STUDY
Oudtshoorn AREA
Uniondale
Bergplaats
Outeniqua Karatara
George
Herbertsdale
Sandhoogte Sedgefield Knysna
Plettenberg Bay
Mossel Bay
Indian Ocean Climate stations
N
Tertiary catchments
Gouritsmond
0 12.5 25 50 Kilometers Study area
Figure 2: The location of Eden District Municipality, the focus of this study
The study area was chosen based on its varied topography, the considerable assets underwritten by
Santam, as well as the recent volatile weather conditions that the area has experienced. Between
2003 and 2008 the Western Cape Province, which geographically includes the Southern Cape region,
experienced eight severe storm events resulting in more than R2.5 billion (approx. US$295 million)
worth of direct damage (RADAR 2010). More than 70% of this damage occurred in the Eden District
Municipality. Almost 80% of the ‘special perils’ losses (relating to storm, wind, water, hail/snow)
incurred by Santam in this area since 1996, occurred within the last five years.
Historical data and high resolution climate simulation models run by the CSIR (Engelbrecht, 2011)
indicate that this area has experienced, and will continue to experience, significant changes to its
climatic conditions. Among these, changes to local temperatures were most significant. Winter and
spring temperatures in this area have increased by about 1.40C over the past century and are predicted
to increase a further 10C by 2040.
Using the MacArthur Fire Danger Index or FDI (MacArthur 1966) and input parameters of temperature,
wind speed and relative humidity, we were able to show that the number of high fire risk periods (more
than three days) is likely to increase by approximately 41% for the period 2020 to 2050 compared to
1960 to 1990 (Figure 3) (Forsyth 2011). This increase is accentuated in the winter due largely to the
significant increases in temperature during this time.
50
40
# high FDI periods (3day)
30
20
10
0
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Year
Furthermore, our climate simulation models demonstrated that the number of intense rainfall days
(>20mm) per year were predicted to increase modestly by 10% overall for the period 2020 to 2050
compared to 1960 to 1990 (Le Maitre et al. 2011). However, this trend was much more significant in
the winter months when a 36% increase was predicted (Figure 4). Again, this was consistent with the
historical trend which showed an increase in intense rainfall events between 1960 and 2008.
40
20
10
WINTER
15
Extreme rain events/year
10
Finally, sea storm models indicate that the occurrence of extreme wave run-up events, as recently
recorded in 2007, is expected to be six times greater due to a predicted sea level rise of 1m by 2100
(Theron et al. 2011).
The second major finding of our study was that local human-induced changes to land cover and the
buffering capacity of ecosystems was of equal or greater importance in driving increasing risks, when
compared to climate change.
Using historical data, we found that the occurrence of invasive alien trees (mostly Pinus sp, Acacia
sp, and Eucalyptus sp) was the most important driver of significant wild fires in this region (Figure
5), explaining 37% of the change in fire occurence (Forsyth et al. 2011). While the naturally occurring
fynbos vegetation of this area is also fire-prone, the occurrence of invasive alien trees increased the
number of high fire risk areas by between 31% and 37%.
50
40
Fire Occurence
30
20
10
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
% Alien Invasive Plants
300
250
200
Daily run-off (mm)
100
50
0
20 40 60 80 100
Return period (years)
Baseline Clearfell pines Light fire in pines Severe fire in pines
Figure 6: Expected return period of mean daily run-off under four land cover scenarios
Furthermore, we found that land cover changes recorded in this area over the past two decades had
an equal effect on extreme surface water flows, as compared to predicted future increases in extreme
rainfall events (Le Maitre 2011). We found that the occurrence of large fires in commercial forestry (Pi-
nus sp.) plantations (recorded in 1996) as well as clear-felling of stands without active rehabilitation,
could reduce the return period of an extreme flow event of 150mm per day (the flow recorded during
the 1981 floods) by 40% (Figure 6).
Finally, using a spatial coastal hazard model developed by the CSIR, it was found that the destruction
of coastal foredunes and the hardening of surfaces in this area (leading to increased erosion of these
dunes) was one of the most significant predictors of coastal risk (Theron et al. 2011).
The implications of these findings are significant for two reasons. First, it points out that human-
induced impacts on the ecological buffering capacity of the system have an equal or greater impact
on risk, as compared to future climate change predictions. Second, it points out that the proactive
management and restoration of these ecological systems has the potential to offset most of the future
increases in risk related to climatic changes.
Our third major finding was that while our models could predict broad changes in risks based on pre-
dicted climatic changes or human impacts on ecological buffering capacity, the actual risk to any indi-
vidual asset was an emergent property of non-linear interactions between the different drivers of risk.
For instance, we have already shown that land cover changes, as observed over the past two decades,
could almost halve the return period of extreme surface flows of water from a 1 in 75 year event to a 1
in 45 year event (Le Maitre et al. 2011). Under these circumstances, modelling fine-scale 1 in 50 year
flood lines based purely on climatic data becomes less valuable in assessing risk. Furthermore, we
have shown that elevated winter temperatures are driving a higher incidence of winter fires (Figure
7), and will continue to do so into the future. We have also shown that the incidence of intense rainfall
events is likely to increase particularly in winter (Figure 4). The combination of an intense rainfall
event on a recently burnt landscape will greatly enhance run-off and surface flows (DeBano 2000) and,
therefore, the risk of flooding. Accordingly, even when only considering climatic changes, one needs to
consider the functional relationship between different drivers and how they interact with each other
spatially and temporally, to understand the risk to an individual asset.
This finding is significant in that it cautions against the strong pressure from the insurance industry
towards ever-finer scale risk assessments to better differentiate and price risks. Within such fast-
changing complex systems there is a limit to the power of predictive models and therefore the useful-
ness of ever-finer scale risk assessments.
25 000
20 000
Hectares burnt
15 000
1970 - 89
1990 - 2006
10 000
5 000
-
Spring Summer Autumn Winter
Figure 7: Total area burnt in different seasons in the Outeniqua nature reserve,
within the study area, for two different periods (1970-89 and 1990-2006)
In fast-changing complex systems with multiple risk drivers, as described above, we believe
that systems models that emphasise explanatory power (i.e. how the system behaves under
different scenarios) are more useful than conventional risk assessment models that focus
almost exclusively on predictive power. Such systems models will not provide a single neat
risk probability, but will rather provide a suite of possible risk probabilities based on different
plausible scenarios for the main risk drivers.
At the least, this approach will deal more explicitly with uncertainty and avoid the false sense
of security that may be provided by predictive models. More importantly, these systems models
have the potential of focusing the insurance industry on the real drivers of risk. This will allow
the industry to complement its risk assessment with effective risk management, targeted at the
sources or drivers of risk.
A very encouraging outcome of our work was that for each of the risks we studied (i.e. wild fires,
floods, and sea storms), we were able to identify drivers of change in the local landscape that had
the same if not greater effect on risk, compared to climatic drivers. Proactive management of
these local drivers of risk could therefore offset most of the increased risk associated with climate
change. This is the basis of ‘ecosystem-based adaptation’ to climate change (IUCN 2008).
For wildfires, we identified the occurrence of invasive alien trees as a key driver in the local
landscape. The control or eradication of these fire-prone invasive trees provides a practical risk
management response that has the potential of nullifying future increases in fire risk associated
primarily with increased temperatures in this region.
For flooding, we identified local changes in land cover, specifically clear-felling of large
tracts of commercial forestry plantations that were not replanted and large fires within these
plantations, as a key driver of risk. Active rehabilitation of natural vegetation following clear-
felling, and improved fire management practices in these areas, are therefore two practical risk
management responses. While our study focused on land cover changes related to forestry (due
to data availability), it should be noted that other land cover changes such as the degradation of
wetlands and river riparian zones could have an equal effect on the risk of flooding. The active
rehabilitation of these ecosystems also provides practical risk management responses.
Finally, we found that the degradation of foredunes, the artificial hardening of the coastal area,
and the reduction in sand availability, were key drivers of sea storm risk in the local landscape.
Active rehabilitation of dune vegetation, stabilisation and rebuilding of foredunes and sand
replenishment, as well as reduction of artificial hardening activities, provide practical options
for risk management in this coastal zone.
FROM In order to understand how the insurance industry can effectively move to-
wards more proactive risk management, we need to first acknowledge the
mutually dependent relationship between governments, society and the in-
SHARED
surance industry. The absence of a viable insurance industry, or even a re-
duction in the insured segment of society, will shift greater risk exposure
onto governments and societal structures (such as community-based and
RISK TO
non-profit organisations). It is therefore in the interest of governments and
society that the private insurance industry remains viable and covers as broad
a segment of society as possible. Similarly, the insurance industry is depend-
ent of governments and society for the development and implementation of
SHARED prudential legislation, policies and management systems that are critical to
the insurance industry’s identification, assessment and management of its
risk exposure. Increased risks resulting from climate change and ecological
VALUE degradation therefore pose a shared risk to the insurance industry, govern-
ments and society. This provides a strong incentive for collaboration.
Having acknowledged the existence of a shared risk, the critical question becomes how one moves
towards a shared response or, as coined by Porter & Kramer (2011), towards creating ‘shared value’.
Porter & Kramer (2011) urge corporations to move beyond their schizophrenia of ‘maximising profits
for shareholders’ on the one hand, and ‘corporate social responsibility’ on the other; to a more uni-
fying concept of creating ‘shared value’ with society. For clarity, the concept of shared value is not
about corporations ‘redistributing value’ but rather about finding ways of expanding the total pool
of economic and social value. Shared value creation therefore focuses on ‘identifying and expanding
the connections between societal and economic progress’ (Porter & Kramer 2011). Porter & Kramer
(2011) suggest that corporations can create value by identifying gaps or failures in the frameworks
that connect societal and economic progress, and building these connections.
In the context of our case study, we believe that the insurance industry needs to identify and expand
connections to key societal nodes within the local landscape that have the greatest potential to create
shared value. In selecting these nodes for shared value creation, the insurance industry will need to
consider two primary factors:
For instance, the insurance industry has a strong connection with its clients (i.e. policyholders) who
currently lack the power to leverage change over the local drivers of risk. This is largely due to lack of
information and cohesive action. So while this node has high potential power, it is currently unrealised
because of these gaps. The insurance industry can therefore create shared value by providing scien-
tific information on the real systemic drivers of risk in the local landscape, and creating mechanisms
that allow and encourage clients to influence the local drivers of risk through a focused and cohesive
approach.
Similarly, local municipal governments have a high degree of power over many of the local drivers
of risk, but the connection between the insurance industry and local municipalities is currently very
weak. This is mainly due to the absence of a shared agenda and therefore a shared systemic under-
standing of how the local drivers of risk, leading to joint response projects, would facilitate the devel-
opment of a shared agenda and strengthen this connection.
VI. CONCLUSION
The insurance industry is the single largest global industry, with premiums amounting to some 8% of
the global Gross Domestic Product, and some 11% of global assets under its management (Petherick
2011). It also has a very long reach, connecting social, economic and ecological systems.
In this study, we have shown how this may be practically achieved at a local landscape level. We be-
lieve this work provides generic lessons as to how this may be achieved at a larger scale, as well as
in other industries.
At an international level, one clear yet largely untapped opportunity of creating shared value is linking
the risk management and risk transfer expertise and activities of the global insurance industry with the
efforts of United Nations agencies, civil society organisations and academia in building the resilience of
communities to climate change and ecosystem-related risks. The collaboration of various organisations
for this study gives a good indication of how this opportunity can be tapped and expanded.
Beck, Ulrich (1992) Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity. London: Sage
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MacArthur (1966)
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Mills (2009)
Nel. J. et al. (2011) Understanding the implication of global change for the Insurance industry:
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CSIR/NRE/ECOS/2011/0063/B
Petherick (2011)
RADAR (2010)
Santam is the leading short-term insurer in South Africa with over 90 years of experience and a mar-
ket share exceeding 22%. Santam focuses on corporate, commercial and personal markets through-
out South African and has business interests in other emerging markets such as India, Malawi and
Botswana. Santam joined UNEP FI in 2009 and is an active member of its Insurance Commission
leading the development of the UNEP FI Principles for Sustainable Insurance, which will be launched
at the 2012 UN Conference on Sustainable Development. Santam is also the first African insurer to
join ClimateWise and is currently a member of its Managing Committee.
[Link]
The WWF was established internationally in 1961 and has become one of the world’s largest and
most respected independent conservation organisations, with a global network active in over 100
countries and more than 1300 conservation projects underway around the world. WWF’s mission
is to stop the degradation of the earth’s natural environment and to build a future in which humans
live in harmony with nature, by conserving the world’s biological diversity, ensuring that the use of
renewable natural resources is sustainable, and promoting the reduction of pollution and wasteful
consumption.
[Link]
The UCT Centre of Criminology is a research unit of the Department of Public Law, Faculty of Law at
the University of Cape Town. The Centre aims to initiate, coordinate and develop research and outreach
services within the broad field of Criminology, and to promote interest in all aspects of the discipline.
The Centre currently focuses its research efforts in two major domains: physical security where its
primary focus is on developments in policing; and environmental security where it is exploring the
governance of security in relation to global environmental change, including climate change.
[Link]
The CSIR is one of the leading scientific and technology research, development and implementation
organisations in Africa. Constituted by an Act of Parliament in 1945 as a science council, the CSIR un-
dertakes directed and multidisciplinary research, technological innovation as well as industrial and
scientific development to improve the quality of life of the country’s people. The CSIR is committed
to supporting innovation in South Africa to improve national competitiveness in the global economy.
Science and technology services and solutions are provided in support of various stakeholders, and
opportunities are identified where new technologies can be further developed and exploited in the
private and public sectors for commercial and social benefit. The CSIR’s shareholder is the South
African Parliament, held in proxy by the Minister of Science and Technology.
[Link]
UNEP FI is a partnership between UNEP — the United Nations system’s designated entity for ad-
dressing environmental issues at the global and regional levels — and the global financial sector. It is
the oldest partnership between the UN and the financial sector. Through UNEP FI, UNEP works with
200 insurance companies, banks and investment firms worldwide to understand the impacts of en-
vironmental, social and governance issues on financial performance and sustainable development.
With a global work programme spanning research, training, events and regional activities, UNEP FI
identifies, promotes and realises the adoption of best environmental and sustainability practice at all
levels of financial institution operations.
[Link]