Module 5:
1. Three persons A, B and C have applied for a job in a private
company. The chance of their selections is in the ratio 1: 2: 4. The
probabilities that A, B and C can introduce changes to improve the
profits of the company are 0.8, 0.5 and 0.3, respectively. If the
change does not take place, find the probability that it is due to the
appointment of C.
Solution:
Let the events be described as below :
A: No change takes place
E1: Person A gets appointed
E2: Person B gets appointed
E3: Person C gets appointed.
The chances of selection of A,B and C are in the ratio 1:2:4.
Hence, P(E1)=1/7, P(E2)=2/7, P(E3)=4/7
Probabilities of A,B and C introducing changes to improve profits of
company are 0.8,0.5 and 0.3 respectively.
Hence probability of no changes on appointment
of A,B and C are 0.2,0.5 and 0.7 respectively.
Hence, P(A∣E1)=0.2=2/10
P(A∣E2)=0.5=5/10
P(A∣E3)=0.7=7/10
∴ if no change takes place, the probability that it is due to
appointment of C is 7/10.
2. Consider the set of all possible five-card poker hands dealt fairly
from a standard
deck of fifty-two cards.
a. How many atomic events are there in the joint probability
distribution (i.e.,
how many five-card hands are there)?
b. What is the probability of each atomic event?
c. What is the probability of being dealt a royal straight flush? Four of a
kind
Answer: summary, the probability of being dealt a royal straight flush is
1/649,740, and the probability of being dealt four of a kind is 1/4,165.
a. In a standard deck of 52 cards, there are a total of C(52, 5) =
2,598,960 possible five-card poker hands.
Therefore, there are 2,598,960 atomic events in the joint probability
distribution.
b. To calculate the probability of each atomic event, we need to divide the
number of favorable outcomes (1) by the total number of possible outcomes
(2,598,960).
This gives us a probability of 1/2,598,960 for each atomic event.
c. The probability of being dealt a royal straight flush is the number of
favourable outcomes divided by the total number of possible outcomes.
There are 4 royal straight flushes (one for each suit), so the probability
is 4/2,598,960, which simplifies to 1/649,740.
To calculate the probability of being dealt four of a kind, we need to
consider the number of possible ways to choose 4 cards of the same rank and
1 card of any other rank.
There are 13 ranks to choose from and C (4, 1) ways to choose the suits for
the other cards.
Therefore, the probability of being dealt four of a kind is
(13 ×48) / 2,598,960, which simplifies to 1/4,165.
3. Three urns are there containing white and black balls; first urn has 3
white and 2 black
balls, second urn has 2 white and 3 black balls and third urn has 4 white
and 1 black
balls. Without any biasing one urn is chosen from that one ball is chosen
randomly
which was white. What is probability that it came from the third urn?
[Solve this]
4. There are three urns containing 2 white and 3 black balls, 3 white
and 2 blacks balls, and 4 white and 1 black balls, respectively. There
is an equal probability of each urn being chosen. A ball is drawn at
random from the chosen urn and it is found to be white. Find the
probability that the ball drawn was from the second urn.
5. A bag contains 4 balls Two balls are drawn at random and are found
to be White. What is the probability that all Balls are white.
E1: 2 balls are white, 2- are non white
E2: 3 balls are white, 1 is non white
E3: 4 balls are white
A : Two balls are white
6.