Chapter 4 -
1
Construction Planning & Scheduling
Course: Construction Planning & Management [CEng4308]
Prerequisite: Contract, specification & Quantity Survey (CEng4207)
Program: Civil Engineering
Credit Hours: 3Hrs/week
Course Instructor: Zerihun M. (BSc. in CoTM. & MSc in CEM)
2 Presentation Outlines
z Stochastic Project Scheduling [PERT]
Compiled by Zerihun M
3 Program Evaluation and Review Technique
z In some situations, estimating activity duration becomes a difficult task
due to ambiguity inherited in and the risks associated with some
work.
z Thus, the duration of an activity is estimated as a range of time
values rather than being a single value.
z This section deals with the scheduling of the project under uncertain
activity duration. Compiled by Zerihun M
4 Program Evaluation and Review Technique
z PERT stands for Program Evaluation and Review Technique
z PERT introduces uncertainty into the estimates for activity and
project durations.
z Accounts for uncertainty in activity duration estimates.
z Provides estimates of project duration probabilities.
z It is used more in projects where time, rather than cost, is the major
factor. Compiled by Zerihun M
5 Program Evaluation and Review Technique
z Best used for highly uncertain projects:-
§ New product development
§ Unique or first-time projects
§ Research and development projects
§ Complex projects
§ Road projects
Compiled by Zerihun M
6 Program Evaluation and Review Technique
z Three time estimates are required to compute the parameters of an
activity’s duration distribution:
Optimistic Time ( T0 ):
z Estimate of the minimum time required for an activity if exceptionally
good luck is experienced.
z If everything goes according to plan.
Compiled by Zerihun M
7 Program Evaluation and Review Technique
Most Likely Time ( Tm )
? Most–likely or modal time (m) [Most realistic/probable estimate]:
? The time which the activity will take most frequently if repeated
number of times.
Compiled by Zerihun M
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Program Evaluation and Review Technique
Pessimistic Time ( Tp) :
? The unlikely but possible performance time if whatever could go wrong ,
goes wrong in series. [Assuming very unfavorable conditions]
? In other words it is the longest time the can take.
Compiled by Zerihun M
9 Program Evaluation and Review Technique
z Based on the estimates, expected mean time (Te), standard
deviation (σ), and the variance (σ2) can be calculated as:
z The times are combined statically to develop the expected time (Te).
Compiled by Zerihun M
10 Program Evaluation and Review Technique
§ Standard deviation of the time of the time required to complete the
project
§ The variance is given by: (t –
2 = p o t ) 2
36
2 = variance
to = optimistic time
tp = pessimistic time Compiled by Zerihun M
11 Program Evaluation and Review Technique
z The total expected project duration is equal to the sum of the
expected durations of the activities along the critical path.
z The probability or chance of experiencing a particular activity
duration is based on a probabilistic distribution.
Compiled by Zerihun M
12 Program Evaluation and Review Technique
The normal distribution is a good approximation.
Compiled by Zerihun M
13 Program Evaluation and Review Technique
Probability of 1 in 100
Probability
of < a occurring Probability of 1 in 100 of > b
occurring
Activity Time
Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
Time (to) Time (tm) Time (tp)
Compiled by Zerihun M
14 Program Evaluation and Review Technique
z The expected project duration �� = ��, �
�=1
z The probability of meeting a specified completion date:
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Program Evaluation and Review Technique
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Program Evaluation and Review Technique
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Program Evaluation and Review Technique
18 Program Evaluation and Review Technique
Example
JOB OPTIMISTIC MOST LIKELY PESSIMISTIC
1-2 1 4 7
1-3 5 10 15
2-4 3 3 3
2-6 1 4 7
3-4 10 15 26
3-5 2 4 6
4-5 5 5 5
5-6 2 5 8
Compiled by Zerihun M
19 Program Evaluation and Review Technique
1. Calculate expected time (te) for each activity
2. Draw the network & find expected project completion time.
3. Calculate the variance of critical activity
4. What is the probability that the project would be completed in 41
days.
Compiled by Zerihun M
Program Evaluation and Review Technique
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§ Solution
Job Optimistic Most Pessimistic te = to + 4tm + tp
Likely 6
1-2 1 4 7 4
1-3 5 10 15 10
2-4 3 3 3 3
2-6 1 4 7 4
3-4 10 15 26 16
3-5 2 4 6 4
4-5 5 5 5 5
5-6 2 5 8 5
Program Evaluation and Review Technique
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§ Solution -
Compiled by Zerihun M
Program Evaluation and Review Technique
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§ Solution -
Activity To Tp Variance
1-3 5 15 2.77
3-4 10 26 7.11
4-5 5 5 0
5-6 2 8 1
Total = 10.88
10.88 = 3.30
Standard deviation =
Compiled by Zerihun M
Program Evaluation and Review Technique
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§ Solution - Probability for completing the job in 41 days.
So, standard deviation = 3.30
Z = Due Date – Expected Date of Completion
S.D. of Critical Path
= 41 – 36
3.30
= 1.51
§ The tabulated value of corresponding to calculated value
i.e. 1.51 is 0.4345
Compiled by Zerihun M
24 Program Evaluation and Review Technique
Solution
1.51 Standard deviations
Probability
(T ≤ 41weeks)
is 93.45%
So probability is 0.5 + 0.4345 = 0.9345
i.e. 93.45% that project will be
completed on 41 day.
36 41 Time
Weeks Weeks
Compiled by Zerihun M
25 Program Evaluation and Review Technique
Exercise - 1
z The critical paths are given below
Critical Activity To Tm Tp
B 8 10 12
D 11 11 15
F 4 9 11
G 5 5 7
I 8 8 8
K 7 9 11
L 5 8 8
M 7 8 9
26 Program Evaluation and Review Technique
Based on the data given in exercise -1
z Find : Te, , and 2
z The probability that the project will be completed by:
a. End of day 69,
b. On day 66,
c. Before the start of day 67,
d. 64, 65, or 66 days,
z Date completion with at least 98% confidence.
Compiled by Zerihun M
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Exercise -2 : Calculate the Project Completion Time, Variance,
Standard Deviation, Critical Path.
Compiled by Zerihun M
28 Program Evaluation and Review Technique
Compiled by Zerihun M
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“Thank You ”
.
Next:
Chapter 5