Scribd
Upload
13 views2 pages

Statistical Inference Assignment 1

The document outlines a Statistical Inference assignment for Spring 2025, featuring various problems related to probability and expected values involving random variables. Topics include claim amounts for wind damage, system lifetimes, insurer's annual losses, and properties of uniform and exponential distributions. Each problem requires calculations of expected values, probabilities, and density functions based on given distributions.

Uploaded by

Yara El Husseiny
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
13 views2 pages

Statistical Inference Assignment 1

The document outlines a Statistical Inference assignment for Spring 2025, featuring various problems related to probability and expected values involving random variables. Topics include claim amounts for wind damage, system lifetimes, insurer's annual losses, and properties of uniform and exponential distributions. Each problem requires calculations of expected values, probabilities, and density functions based on given distributions.

Uploaded by

Yara El Husseiny
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Statistical Inference Assignment 1

Spring 2025

1. Claim amounts for wind damage to insured homes are independent random
variables following a Uniform(0,5) distribution, where the claim amounts
are in thousands.
Suppose that 3 such claims will be made. What is the expected value of
the largest of the three claims?

2. A system made up of seven components with independent, identically dis-


tributed lifetimes will operate only until any one of the system’s compo-
nents fails. The lifetime, X, of each component has the following density
function:
(
3
f (x) = x4 , x>1
0, otherwise

What is the expected time until failure of the system?

3. The random variable Y1 = eX1 characterizes an insurer’s annual property


losses, where X1 is normally distributed with mean 16 and standard de-
viation 1.50. Similarly, the random variable Y2 = eX2 characterizes the
insurer’s annual liability losses, where X2 is normally distributed with
mean 15 and standard deviation 2.
The insurer’s annual property losses are independent of its annual liability
losses.
Calculate the probability that, in a given year, the minimum of the in-
surer’s property losses and liability losses exceeds e16 .

4. Claims on a liability policy are independent and uniformly distributed on


the interval [0, 10]. An auditor randomly selects three claims.
Calculate the probability that the maximum of the three claims is less
than 7.

1
5. A two-part machine functions when at least one of its parts is working.
Both parts are working today. The future lifetime of each part is expo-
nentially distributed with mean five years. The lifetimes of the parts are
independent.
The machine functions one year from now.
Calculate the probability that both parts will be working at that time.

6. Let X1 , X2 , and X3 be independent continuous uniform random variables


on (0, 1).
Find the variance of the median of X1 , X2 , X3 .

7. Let Y1 , Y2 , . . . , Yn be independent, uniformly distributed random variables


on the interval [0, θ].
Find the joint density function of Y(j) and Y(k) where j and k are integers
with 1 ≤ j < k ≤ n.

8. Suppose that X1 , X2 , X3 is a random sample drawn from a Gamma (1, 4)


distribution. Let X(1) , X(2) , X(3) be the resulting order statistics.

(a) Determine the conditional density function of X(3) given that X(1) =
x, X(2) = y, where 0 < x < y < ∞.

Common questions

Powered by AI

For independent uniform random variables X1, X2, X3 on (0, 1), the median is the second order statistic X(2). The expected value of the median is 1/2 and the variance is calculated as: Var(X(2)) = 1 / (18(n+2)) where n is the sample size. Here, n = 3; thus, Var(X(2)) = 1/40.5 = 0.08333 .

The random variables Y1 and Y2 characterize the insurer's property and liability losses, respectively, and follow lognormal distributions. The probability that min(Y1, Y2) > e^16 is P(Y1 > e^16 and Y2 > e^16). This scenario translates to solving for P(X1 > 16 and X2 > 16). Given X1 ~ N(16, 1.5^2) and X2 ~ N(15, 2^2), we assess these with the cumulative distribution function. For X1 > 16, the probability is 0.5 due to symmetry. For X2 > 16, it is approximately 0.3085. Thus, the joint probability is 0.5 * 0.3085 = 0.15425 .

Each component's lifetime is modeled by an exponential distribution with parameter λ = 1/5. The probability that a part lasts more than one year is P(T > 1) = e^(-1/5). Therefore, the probability that both parts still work after one year is (e^(-1/5))^2 = e^(-2/5) ≈ 0.67032 .

The expected value of the largest of three independent Uniform(0,5) random variables can be calculated using the order statistics formula. The expected value of the maximum of n independent Uniform(0,b) random variables is given by E(X_{(n)}) = n / (n+1) * b. Here, b=5 and n=3, so E(X_{(3)}) = 3/4 * 5 = 3.75 thousand .

The system fails when the first component fails. The lifetime of each component is given by the density function f(x) = 3/x^4 for x > 1. The expected lifetime of one component can be calculated as E(X) = ∫ (3x/x^4) dx for x > 1, which turns out to be 3/2. Since the system fails on the first component failure time, the expected system failure time equals the expected time until the first failure, which is 3/2 years .

To find this probability, consider the event that the maximum of three independent Uniform(0,10) random variables is less than 7. Since the maximum is less than 7 implies all individual claims are less than 7, calculate: (P(X < 7))^3 = (7/10)^3 = 0.343 .

You might also like