COLLEGE OF FINANCE, MANAGEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT

Department Of Public Procurement and Asset Management

THE effect of public procurement planning on public Public performance : a

Case study of road and water bureaus in the Somali regional state

By: Higal Dek Abdi

ID NO: 2300389

Advisor; (PhD) MATA

A thesis proposal was submitted to the Department of Public Procurement and
Asset Management to partially fulfil the requirement for an MA degree in the
Department of Public Procurement and Asset Management.

December 2024
ECSU
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

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DECLARATION
I hereby Higal Dek Abdi , hereby affirm that I am submitting a Research proposal titled 'the effect of procurement planing on
procurement performance: the case of selected bureau in the somali regional state '. This submission is a partial fulfillment of the
requirements for the degree of Masters in Public Procurement and Asset Management at the Ethiopian Civil Service University.
As a responsible academic, I declare that this thesis proposal is entirely my own work and achievement. Furthermore, I affirm
that I have not previously applied for any educational qualification or degree from this university or any other institution...

Name: _______________________ Date: _____________ Signature: _________

TABLE OF CONTENTS
DECLARATION....................................................................................................................2
Table of Contents...................................................................................................................3
List of table.............................................................................................................................6
List of figure...........................................................................................................................7
Acronyms and Abbreviations.....................................................................................................9
Abstract......................................................................................................................................9
CHAPTER ONE.....................................................................................................................10
Introduction..............................................................................................................................10
1.1 Background of the study.................................................................................................10
1.2. Statement of problem....................................................................................................13
1.3Research question............................................................................................................14
1.4 O b j e c t i v e of the study..............................................................................................15
1.4.1 General Objective....................................................................................................15
1.4.2 Specific Objective...................................................................................................15
1.5 Significance of Research................................................................................................15
1.6 Scope of the Study..........................................................................................................16
1.7 Operational definitions...................................................................................................17
1.8 Organization of the paper.................................................................................................1
CHAPTER TWO......................................................................................................................2
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 2. A REVIEW OF LITERATURE.........................................................................................2
2.1 review of concept.............................................................................................................2
2.1.1. Public Procurement..................................................................................................2
2.1.3. Procurement Planning and Procurement Performance............................................4
2.2 Theoretical Review...........................................................................................................5
2.2.1. Stakeholder Theory..................................................................................................5
2.2.2 Agency Theory..........................................................................................................7
2.2.3. Transaction Cost Economics theory........................................................................8
2.2.4. Resource Based Viewpoint Theory..........................................................................9
2.3 Empirical framework......................................................................................................10
2.4 Conceptual Framework..................................................................................................14
CHAPTER THREE...............................................................................................................14
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY.............................................................................................14
2.5 Description of the Study Area........................................................................................15
2.6. Research Philosophy and Paradigm..............................................................................16
2.6.1. Research Philosophy..............................................................................................16
2.7 Research Paradigm.....................................................................................................17
2.8 Research Design and Approach.....................................................................................17
[Link] Approach..................................................................................................17
2.9. Research Designs......................................................................................................18
3.0 Types and Sources of Data.............................................................................................18
3. Types of Data...............................................................................................................18
3.1. Sources of Data.........................................................................................................18
3.2 Sampling Design................................................................................................................19
3.2.1 Population and Study Area..........................................................................................19
3.3 Sampling Frame.............................................................................................................19
3.4 Sampling Technique.......................................................................................................19
3.5. Sample Size Determination...........................................................................................19
3.6. Proportional Allocation.................................................................................................20
3.7. Sampling Process..........................................................................................................21
3.8. Justification for Sampling Technique............................................................................21
4.0 Data Validity and Reliability..........................................................................................21
4.1 Data Validity..............................................................................................................21
4.2. Data Reliability..........................................................................................................22
4.3. Instrument and data collection technique.................................................................22
4.4 Ethical Consideration.....................................................................................................23
[Link].........................................................................................................................24
APPENDEXES....................................................................................................................34

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LIST OF TABLES
Table 1:Sample of the population......................................................................................31
Table 2:Reliability Test.....................................................................................................32
Table 3:Time Schedule......................................................................................................34
Table 4:Research Budget Schedule...................................................................................35

LIST OF FIGURE
Figure 1:conceptial Framework.....................................................................................25

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1.1 Background of the Study

Public procurement is one of the most powerful instruments through which governments allocate resources, deliver services, and
advance national development goals. Globally, procurement accounts for a significant proportion of public expenditure—estimated
between 12% and 20% of gross domestic product (GDP)—making it one of the largest areas of government spending (OECD, 2015;
World Bank, 2020). In both developed and developing economies, procurement systems serve not only as financial conduits but as
critical mechanisms for ensuring transparency, efficiency, and equity in the delivery of public goods and services (Thai, 2009).

Empirical studies conducted in high-income countries have consistently shown that procurement performance is closely linked to factors
such as strategic procurement planning, supplier selection frameworks, budget estimation accuracy, and the degree of management
support. In the European Union, Baldi and Vannoni (2016) found that municipalities with integrated procurement planning—aligned
with fiscal calendars and performance benchmarks—demonstrated 22% lower rates of project underspending and a 15% reduction in
delays. In Canada, Eadie et al. (2011) concluded that procurement success depended on having clear procurement goals, skilled
procurement officers, and effective leadership oversight. Similarly, in the United States, McCue and Pitzer (2005) emphasized that
procurement officers performed more effectively when backed by institutional support, performance incentives, and digital procurement
tools.

Moreover, studies in Australia and New Zealand have demonstrated the importance of stakeholder inclusion and data-driven decision-
making in procurement. Walker and Harland (2008) showed that early involvement of end-users and technical experts in the planning
and supplier selection process significantly improved procurement quality and reduced contractual disputes. Likewise, the Queensland
Audit Office (2020) emphasized that digital monitoring systems and performance feedback mechanisms are essential for tracking
procurement efficiency and cost containment across departments.

In Africa, public procurement has long been identified as an area prone to inefficiencies, non-compliance, and corruption, particularly
due to institutional capacity limitations and political interference. The African Development Bank (AfDB, 2021) notes that up to 40% of
public infrastructure projects on the continent are delayed or fail outright due to poor procurement performance. The World Bank (2019)
also identified that in Sub-Saharan Africa, procurement challenges account for more than 30% of financial leakages in public
investment programs. According to Mwangi and Waithaka (2018), procurement performance in African countries is often constrained
by the lack of structured needs assessment, inconsistent supplier vetting, unrealistic budgeting, and weak managerial accountability.

Nonetheless, several countries have implemented reforms with measurable success. In Kenya, Kiplel and Keitany (2018) found that
structured needs assessments and participatory planning led to a 32% increase in procurement efficiency across county governments.
Musau et al. (2021), studying Uganda’s local governments, concluded that procurement units using transparent supplier selection
frameworks and updated cost estimation tools reported significantly higher satisfaction rates among end users. Rwanda has made
notable progress by integrating e-procurement dashboards and linking procurement key performance indicators (KPIs) to managerial
evaluations, which has helped reduce procurement cycle times by 35% (UNDP, 2021).

Despite these gains, many African states—including Ethiopia—continue to rely on paper-based procurement systems, discretionary
supplier selection, and outdated budget estimation processes. In Ethiopia, public procurement is regulated by the Public Procurement
and Property Administration Proclamation No. 649/2009, which aims to promote transparency, value for money, and competition.
While legal reforms have made some progress, implementation has been uneven. Alemu and Tegegn (2020) report that regional states
struggle with inconsistent procurement plans, insufficient supplier evaluation tools, and weak internal audits. Simachew (2022),

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analyzing procurement planning in Amhara and Oromia regions, found that most bureaus operated without integrated procurement
strategies and that decision-making was often reactive rather than data-driven.

At the federal level, support from donor agencies has contributed to improved procurement policy frameworks and training programs.
However, these reforms have yet to fully reach Ethiopia’s peripheral regions, where procurement systems remain fragile and exposed to
political manipulation. In their assessment of procurement in Ethiopia’s education sector, Yohannes and Tessema (2023) observed that
project delays and budget overruns were frequently linked to misaligned procurement plans, poor stakeholder coordination, and weak
top management involvement. Furthermore, Bekele and Mulugeta (2021) demonstrated that in most regional bureaus, procurement
performance was not evaluated against performance targets or strategic goals but rather through administrative checklists with limited
analytical value.

The Somali Regional State is one of Ethiopia’s largest and most politically complex regions, with a history of conflict,
underdevelopment, and institutional fragility. Procurement in the region faces a unique set of challenges, including geographical
dispersion, infrastructure deficits, and low bureaucratic capacity. Audit reports from the Office of the Federal Auditor General (2020)
reveal persistent procurement failures in the region’s infrastructure sectors, with nearly 40% of projects exceeding their budget ceilings
or missing delivery timelines. These shortcomings are attributed to inconsistent supplier selection, lack of cost benchmarking, limited
planning expertise, and the absence of managerial follow-through.

Carruth (2018) argues that procurement processes in the Somali Region are often influenced by informal power structures, including
clan dynamics and political patronage, which undermine transparent procurement practices. Procurement officers interviewed in the
region commonly cite top-down pressure in supplier selection, inadequate support from leadership, and the absence of standardized
planning tools. Similarly, Yusuf and Ahmed (2023) found that procurement officers in Somali Regional State rarely used updated
market data or digital systems for budget estimation, relying instead on outdated ceiling-based allocations with limited relevance to real-
world conditions.

Despite these challenges, there is limited empirical research that explores the combined impact of institutional, managerial, and
technical factors on procurement performance in the Somali Regional State. Most existing literature focuses on federal institutions or
general compliance with procurement laws, without examining the interplay between procurement planning, supplier evaluation, budget
estimation, and top management support in decentralized governance contexts.

This study addresses that gap by investigating the key factors influencing public procurement performance in the Road Authority and
Water and Energy Bureaus of the Somali Regional State. It focuses on four interrelated variables: supplier selection, top management
support, needs assessment, and budget estimation. Drawing from empirical literature and theoretical models—including Agency Theory,
Resource-Based View, and Institutional Theory—the study aims to provide a contextualized understanding of how these factors
contribute to or constrain procurement outcomes. The findings are expected to inform regional policy reforms, enhance procurement
practice, and contribute to the broader literature on procurement governance in fragile and decentralized environments.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

Despite the growing emphasis on procurement reform in Ethiopia and across Sub-Saharan Africa, public procurement performance
remains a chronic challenge. Globally, procurement failures have been linked to fragmented planning, politicized supplier selection,
inaccurate budget forecasting, and weak managerial oversight (OECD, 2017; World Bank, 2020). These issues are even more acute in
developing countries, where procurement is often executed in fragile institutional contexts, with limited capacity and high vulnerability
to inefficiency and corruption (Eadie et al., 2011; Thai, 2009).
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In Africa, multiple studies have emphasized that the effectiveness of public procurement is not solely a function of legal compliance but
is shaped by a complex interaction of organizational, technical, and political variables. For example, Kiplagat and Wanyama (2018)
found in Kenya that procurement outcomes were significantly influenced by top management commitment, supplier qualification
processes, and quality of needs assessments. Similarly, in Uganda, Musau et al. (2021) reported that local governments that
institutionalized transparent supplier selection and realistic budgeting demonstrated improved procurement performance and reduced
delivery delays. Rwanda’s performance-based procurement reforms, particularly in infrastructure and health sectors, have further
highlighted the positive impact of integrated planning systems, digital cost estimation, and managerial performance incentives (UNDP,
2021).

In Ethiopia, although the Public Procurement and Property Administration Proclamation No. 649/2009 was enacted to enhance
transparency, efficiency, and competition, procurement inefficiencies continue to constrain public sector performance. Studies by
Alemu and Tegegn (2020) and Simachew (2022) reveal that most regional bureaus operate with outdated procurement manuals, non-
standardized supplier vetting, and weak integration between procurement plans and budget allocations. The mismatch between
procurement needs and actual financial planning results in frequent project delays, budget overruns, and disputes with suppliers.

Empirical evidence from the Office of the Federal Auditor General (2020) shows that nearly 40% of capital projects in the Somali
Regional State were delayed or not completed as planned, often due to procurement-related bottlenecks. The problem is particularly
visible in high-expenditure sectors such as roads and water infrastructure, where the failure to select qualified suppliers, prepare
accurate cost estimates, and engage top management in oversight leads to cascading inefficiencies throughout the procurement cycle.
Yet, few studies in Ethiopia have examined how these variables—supplier selection, top management support, needs assessment, and
budget estimation—jointly affect procurement outcomes in fragile, decentralized governance environments.

Carruth (2018) highlighted that procurement practices in the Somali Region are frequently influenced by informal political structures
and elite interests, leading to non-merit-based supplier selection and procedural shortcuts. Similarly, Yusuf and Ahmed (2023) reported
that procurement officers in the region often rely on outdated market assumptions and ceiling-based budgeting, resulting in procurement
plans that fail to meet actual project needs. Moreover, Bekele and Mulugeta (2021) found that in many regional bureaus, top
management engagement with procurement processes is either symbolic or reactive, leaving procurement officers without the
institutional backing necessary for effective execution.

While existing literature acknowledges the critical role of procurement planning, it often treats influencing factors in isolation, without
accounting for their interdependence in real-world settings. For instance, robust supplier selection may fail to improve outcomes if not
supported by accurate budget forecasts and management buy-in. Similarly, top-down budget estimates disconnected from stakeholder
needs or market data are unlikely to produce procurement success, regardless of how well suppliers are vetted. This points to a pressing
need for integrated research that examines how multiple factors collectively determine procurement performance.

Despite the strategic importance of the road and water sectors in the Somali Regional State—both of which are vital for infrastructure
development and service delivery—there is limited empirical analysis that evaluates the institutional, managerial, and technical factors
influencing procurement effectiveness within these sectors. The existing gap in academic and policy literature leaves decision-makers
with insufficient evidence to guide reform and capacity-building efforts in one of Ethiopia’s most underserved regions.

Therefore, this study seeks to address these gaps by investigating the key factors influencing public procurement performance in the
Road and Water Bureaus of the Somali Regional State. It focuses specifically on the roles of supplier selection, top management
support, needs assessment, and budget estimation. Through this multi-dimensional approach, the study aims to generate actionable
insights to inform regional procurement reforms, enhance institutional capacity, and improve project delivery outcomes in a complex
governance setting.
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1.3. Objective of the Study

1.3.2 General Objective

The main objective of this study was to investigate factors influencing procurement performance in Road and Water Bureau of the
Somali Regional

1.3.2. Specific Objectives:

1. To examine the influence of supplier selection practice on procurement performance in Road and Water Bureau of the Somali
Regional State
2. To assess the effect of top management support on procurement performance in Road and Water Bureau of the Somali Regional
State
3. To explore the effect of needs assessment on procurement performance in Road and Water Bureau of the Somali Regional State
4. To evaluate the effect of budget estimation on procurement performance in Road and Water Bureau of the Somali Regional State

These objectives not only reflect the empirical gaps identified in previous research (e.g., Basheka, 2008; Alemu, 2020; Ameyaw
et al., 2012) but also seek to develop a nuanced understanding of the mechanisms through which procurement planning
strengthens public procurement systems at the sub-national level.

1.2.3 Research Questions:

1. What is the effect of supplier selection practice on procurement performance in Road and Water Bureau of the Somali Regional
State?
2. How does the top management support influence the procurement performance in Road and Water Bureau of the Somali
Regional State?
3. What is the effect of needs assessment on procurement performance in Road and Water Bureau of the Somali Regional State?
4. How does budget estimation affect procurement performance in Road and Water Bureau of the Somali Regional State?

1.3 Research Hypotheses

Based on the study’s objectives and theoretical underpinnings, the following testable hypotheses are proposed:

 H₁: There is a significant positive relationship between supplier selection practices and procurement performance in the Roads
Authority and Water & Energy Bureaus of the Somali Regional State.

 H₂: Top management support has a significant positive impact on the performance of public procurement in the Somali
Regional State.

Rationale: Senior leadership engagement is crucial for resource allocation, coordination, and institutional accountability,
which contribute to improved procurement outcomes (Thai, 2015).

 H₃: Needs assessment practices significantly influence procurement responsiveness and alignment with development priorities.

Rationale: Proper identification and prioritization of procurement needs ensure that resources are allocated effectively
and projects meet intended objectives (Kakwezi & Nyeko, 2010).

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  H₄: Accurate budget estimation positively affects procurement cost control and financial performance in regional public
institutions.

These hypotheses will be tested using inferential statistical methods, enabling the study to determine the strength and direction of
relationships between key planning variables and procurement performance outcomes.

1.4 Significance of the Study

This study holds substantial academic, policy, institutional, and developmental significance. It contributes meaningfully to both
theoretical inquiry and practical reforms in public procurement, especially within decentralized and fragile governance contexts such as
Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State (SRS).

Academic Contribution:
This research advances scholarly understanding of procurement planning by addressing a significant empirical void in sub-national
procurement literature. While existing studies predominantly focus on compliance or federal-level implementation, this study applies
theoretical models—Principal-Agent Theory, Institutional Theory, and Resource-Based View—to critically analyze procurement
planning at the regional level. By unpacking the influence of supplier selection, top management support, needs assessment, and budget
estimation on procurement performance, the study offers a comprehensive analytical model that can be replicated in other low-capacity
governance environments.

Policy and Legislative Relevance:

The findings are expected to inform procurement policy reform at both regional and national levels. Specifically, the study offers
actionable recommendations for enhancing the Ethiopian Public Procurement Proclamation (No. 649/2009) by providing empirical
insight into planning deficiencies in regional institutions. This can inform the design of context-specific regulations, performance
monitoring systems, and institutional restructuring processes.

Institutional Capacity Building:

The research identifies capacity gaps in procurement planning and implementation—particularly in technical competencies, leadership
engagement, and forecasting accuracy. These findings can guide the design of targeted capacity development programs and professional
training modules for procurement officers, finance administrators, and managers in regional bureaus.

Developmental Impact:
By improving the understanding of procurement planning's role in public service delivery, the study contributes to broader development
goals such as infrastructure expansion, health and education access, and poverty reduction. In SRS, where procurement inefficiencies
directly hinder development, improved planning mechanisms could translate into timely and cost-effective service delivery.

1.5 Scope of the Study

The study is delimited by five dimensions to ensure focused inquiry and methodological precision:

Geographical Scope:
The research is confined to the Somali Regional State of Ethiopia, specifically targeting two key public sector institutions: the Roads
Authority and the Water and Energy Bureaus. These were selected due to their centrality in infrastructure and service delivery—sectors
heavily dependent on effective procurement systems.

Institutional Scope:
The study investigates procurement planning practices within regional government agencies, focusing on their internal planning
mechanisms, coordination processes, and managerial oversight related to procurement.

Temporal Scope:
The research covers procurement planning activities conducted between 2022 and 2025. This period aligns with recent regional
development programs and allows for the evaluation of ongoing reform efforts and procurement performance trends.

Thematic Scope:
The thematic focus centers on four core dimensions of procurement planning: supplier selection, top management support, needs
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assessment, and budget estimation. The dependent variable is procurement performance, measured in terms of efficiency, cost control,
timeliness, compliance, and service quality.

Methodological Scope:
A mixed-methods design is employed, incorporating quantitative data from structured questionnaires and qualitative data from semi-
structured interviews. This triangulation provides a comprehensive understanding of procurement dynamics and enhances the validity of
findings.

1.6 Operational Definitions

For conceptual clarity, the study adopts the following working definitions:

 Top Management Support:

The active involvement of senior leadership in procurement strategy, decision-making, and resource allocation. It encompasses
commitment to institutional goals, interdepartmental coordination, and policy enforcement (Obanda, 2010; Thai, 2015).
 Needs Assessment:
The systematic identification and prioritization of goods, services, or infrastructure needs based on institutional mandates and
end-user requirements. Effective needs assessments reduce redundancy, align with strategic goals, and ensure responsive
procurement (Kakwezi & Nyeko, 2010).
 Budget Estimation:
The projection of required financial resources based on historical costs, market trends, and demand forecasts. Accurate
estimation is essential for avoiding cost overruns and ensuring procurement credibility (Alemu, 2020; World Bank, 2015).
 Supplier Selection:
The evaluative process through which potential suppliers are vetted and chosen based on financial stability, technical
qualifications, past performance, and regulatory compliance (Basheka, 2004; Kothari, 2009).

Procurement Performance:
The effectiveness of procurement activities in achieving cost efficiency, timely delivery, compliance with regulations, and user
satisfaction. Key metrics include procurement cycle time, contract value variance, and supplier responsiveness (Ameyaw et al.,
2012; OECD, 2013

1.8 Organization of the paper

The paper is organized in to five chapters. The first chapter deals with the introduction of the study, The second chapter focuses
on the review of the related literature, The third chapter deals with the methodology, The fourth chapter presents the data
analysis and results of the findings and Finally chapter five, deals with the Conclusion and Recommendation parts of the study
undertake

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 Chapter two
2.1 Conceptual Review
2.1.1 Public Procurement

Public procurement, defined as the process by which public sector entities acquire goods, services, and infrastructure using public funds,
represents a central pillar in the functioning of government and the implementation of public policy. It is increasingly recognized not
merely as a logistical exercise but as a complex governance mechanism with significant implications for fiscal discipline, institutional
integrity, and socioeconomic development (OECD, 2015; World Bank, 2020). In many jurisdictions, public procurement constitutes one
of the largest areas of government expenditure, accounting for approximately 12% to 20% of gross domestic product (GDP), thereby
serving as both a driver of economic activity and a vector for institutional accountability (Thai, 2009).

Within the broader framework of public financial management, procurement is expected to ensure the efficient allocation and utilization
of public resources in accordance with principles of transparency, equity, competitiveness, and value for money. The international
normative landscape, including the UNCITRAL Model Law and various World Bank procurement guidelines, has codified these
principles as essential attributes of well-functioning procurement systems. However, in practice, particularly within the Global South,
the institutionalization of these standards remains uneven due to structural constraints, capacity deficits, and context-specific political
economy dynamics (Eadie et al., 2011).

In the case of Ethiopia, the legislative foundation for public procurement is articulated in Proclamation No. 649/2009, which outlines the
regulatory and procedural parameters for procurement operations across federal and sub-national levels. Despite this framework,
empirical assessments indicate persistent implementation gaps, especially in regional states characterized by institutional fragility and
limited administrative infrastructure (Alemu & Tegegn, 2020). These challenges are particularly pronounced in technically demanding
sectors such as road construction and water infrastructure development, which necessitate high-quality planning, reliable supplier
engagement, and sound financial estimation—conditions that are frequently unmet in regional bureaus such as those in the Somali
Regional State.

The specific complexities of infrastructure procurement—ranging from the scale and duration of contracts to the diversity of
stakeholders involved—magnify the risks associated with weak procurement capacity. As such, an understanding of the conceptual
foundations of public procurement, and the specificities of its application in critical service delivery sectors, is essential for the
analytical framework of this study.

2.1.2 Procurement Performance

Procurement performance refers to the degree to which procurement processes and outcomes achieve their intended objectives in terms
of efficiency, timeliness, cost-effectiveness, compliance, and service quality. Conceptually, performance is a multidimensional construct
that extends beyond mere legal compliance to encompass functional effectiveness and strategic alignment with organizational goals
(Ameyaw et al., 2012; UNOPS, 2022). In this respect, procurement performance should be evaluated not only on procedural integrity
but also on substantive outcomes, including contract delivery timelines, budget adherence, supplier responsiveness, and user
satisfaction.
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A growing body of literature situates procurement performance within the domain of institutional effectiveness, emphasizing that
performance is contingent upon a confluence of factors. These include, inter alia, the adequacy of procurement planning, the robustness
of supplier selection mechanisms, the precision of budget forecasting, and the commitment of top management to oversight and
enforcement (Prajogo & McDermott, 2014; McCue & Pitzer, 2005). The interaction of these variables determines the reliability and
accountability of procurement outcomes, especially in public institutions operating under conditions of resource scarcity and political
complexity.

In developing countries, where procurement systems are often overburdened and underregulated, the measurement of procurement
performance is frequently limited to input-based or procedural indicators. Such an approach obscures the systemic issues underlying
poor performance, including fragmented coordination, politicized procurement decisions, and deficient data systems (Musau et al.,
2021). In Ethiopia, procurement performance reviews tend to emphasize checklist-based compliance rather than results-oriented
evaluation, thus failing to provide actionable insights for system-wide improvement (Simachew, 2022).

Empirical evidence from the Office of the Federal Auditor General (2020) highlights that in the Somali Regional State, deficiencies in
procurement performance are not isolated anomalies but indicative of deeper institutional dysfunctions. Reports document widespread
delays in contract execution, budget overruns, and disputes stemming from non-transparent procurement processes and inadequate
needs assessments. Furthermore, the absence of a structured performance monitoring framework has led to limited accountability for
procurement outcomes, particularly in the region’s Road and Water Bureaus—sectors that are capital-intensive and mission-critical.

Accordingly, a rigorous analysis of procurement performance in such a setting requires an integrative perspective that considers the
institutional, managerial, and technical variables underpinning procurement operations. This study responds to that imperative by
conceptualizing procurement performance not as a static compliance metric, but as an outcome shaped by the dynamic interplay of
internal capabilities and contextual constraints.

2.1.3 Conceptual Dimensions Influencing Procurement Performance

The performance of public procurement systems is influenced by a multitude of interdependent variables. While various models have
identified broad institutional, legal, and technical drivers, this study narrows its focus to four conceptually grounded and empirically
validated dimensions: supplier selection, top management support, needs assessment, and budget estimation. These dimensions are
treated not as isolated procedural steps but as interlocking factors whose quality, coherence, and coordination fundamentally shape
procurement outcomes in terms of efficiency, effectiveness, and service delivery. Each of these dimensions is conceptualized below.

A. Supplier Selection

Supplier selection represents a critical determinant of procurement outcomes, as it directly influences the quality, cost, and timeliness of
contract execution. Conceptually, it refers to the process by which procuring entities identify, evaluate, and engage vendors or
contractors deemed capable of delivering the required goods or services. Foundational work by Dickson (1966) laid the groundwork for
evaluating supplier selection criteria, including price, delivery capability, technical quality, and financial viability. More recent studies
have expanded these criteria to include ethical compliance, sustainability credentials, and track record in public sector delivery (Ho et
al., 2010; Basheka, 2008).

A sound supplier selection process should be guided by transparency, competitiveness, and objectivity, often operationalized through
weighted scorecard methods or two-envelope tender evaluations. However, in decentralized and fragile governance contexts, supplier
selection is frequently subject to informal influence, capacity limitations, or discretionary decision-making, resulting in misaligned

13
contractor performance and procurement inefficiencies (Carruth, 2018; Kanda & Iravo, 2015). Thus, supplier selection is conceptualized
in this study not only as a technical procedure but also as a reflection of institutional integrity and governance quality.

B. Top Management Support

Top management support refers to the involvement, commitment, and oversight exercised by senior leadership in ensuring that
procurement activities align with institutional objectives and public accountability standards. Theoretically grounded in Organizational
Support Theory and Agency Theory, managerial engagement is recognized as a pivotal enabler of operational performance. Managers
allocate resources, set procurement priorities, approve strategic plans, and enforce compliance mechanisms (Prajogo & McDermott,
2014; McCue & Pitzer, 2005).

Where such support is lacking, procurement units often operate in administrative isolation, with limited recourse to strategic inputs or
problem resolution. In the public sector, top management involvement also signals organizational seriousness to stakeholders,
reinforcing supplier discipline and internal motivation (Alemu & Tegegn, 2020). This dimension is therefore conceptualized in this
study as a cross-cutting factor that influences all stages of the procurement cycle—planning, selection, implementation, and evaluation.

C. Needs Assessment

Needs assessment constitutes the foundational stage of the procurement cycle, serving as the basis for defining the nature, scope, and
specifications of the required goods, works, or services. Conceptually, it is not merely a technical checklist but a participatory and
analytical process that aligns procurement activities with actual institutional and community needs (Kiplel & Keitany, 2018). A robust
needs assessment prevents over- or under-procurement, mitigates scope creep, and enhances the relevance and sustainability of
procurement outputs.

In the context of road and water infrastructure, needs assessment must incorporate technical feasibility, environmental conditions, user
feedback, and long-term planning. Weaknesses in this area—such as reliance on outdated templates or non-participatory processes—
have been linked to procurement failures in Ethiopia’s regional states (Simachew, 2022; Yusuf & Ahmed, 2023). In this study, needs
assessment is conceptualized as a strategic dimension that conditions the validity of downstream procurement decisions, including
supplier qualification and budget setting.

Budget Estimation

Budget estimation involves forecasting the financial resources required to execute procurement activities based on current market data,
technical specifications, and projected timelines. This dimension has both a fiscal and technical character: fiscally, it ensures alignment
with institutional budget ceilings and funding sources; technically, it contributes to cost realism, reduces post-award contract variations,
and minimizes the risk of underperformance (Mahmood, 2010; UNDP, 2021).

Conceptually, budget estimation is distinguished from general budgeting in that it is project-specific and requires continuous revision
based on procurement strategy and supplier feedback. In low-capacity settings, budget estimates are often based on historical data or
generic assumptions, leading to resource wastage or project discontinuity. In the Somali Regional State, where market fluctuations and
logistical costs vary widely, inaccurate budget estimation has frequently contributed to procurement delays and disputes (Office of the
Federal Auditor General, 2020). This study therefore conceptualizes budget estimation as a critical dimension influencing procurement
viability and implementation fidelity.

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2.2 Theoretical Review

2.2.1 Stakeholder Theory

Stakeholder Theory, as developed by Freeman (1984), proposes that organizations must consider the interests and influence of all
stakeholders—not just shareholders or principals—when making decisions. In public procurement, this implies that decision-making
processes must integrate the perspectives of a diverse array of actors including procurement officers, end-user departments, suppliers,
oversight bodies, civil society organizations, and the general public. As procurement systems increasingly influence service delivery and
public trust, their success hinges on participatory and transparent engagement with stakeholders.

Mitchell, Agle, and Wood (1997) refined this theory by introducing a typology of stakeholders based on power, legitimacy, and
urgency, which remains relevant in procurement environments where some actors—such as political elites or donor agencies—have
disproportionate influence. In Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State, procurement is not merely a technical function but a politically
contested arena. Local elites, clan structures, and donor entities often act as informal stakeholders, influencing procurement priorities
and contractor selection without formal accountability mechanisms (Yusuf & Gebru, 2023).

However, research also shows that effective stakeholder engagement can be transformative. Muluneh and Mekuria (2021) found that
procurement projects in Ethiopia involving civil society in the planning phase showed significantly higher compliance rates and user
satisfaction. This supports Newcombe’s (2003) view that stakeholder participation improves legitimacy, reduces resistance, and
enhances procurement outcomes. Nevertheless, these benefits are rarely realized without deliberate institutional mechanisms for
engagement—such as grievance redress systems, citizen oversight panels, and open procurement portals.

Stakeholder Theory is especially important in fragile governance contexts, where elite capture or exclusion of marginalized groups can
distort procurement priorities. In this regard, Hailemariam and Ali (2022) recommend localized stakeholder mapping and context-
specific inclusion strategies to ensure procurement systems align with public interests in multi-ethnic regions like Somali.

2.2.2 Agency Theory

Agency Theory, originally articulated by Jensen and Meckling (1976), examines the relationship between a principal (e.g., the public or
government authority) and an agent (e.g., procurement officer or contractor), wherein the agent may act in their own interest to the
detriment of the principal. In public procurement, this misalignment manifests through collusion, inflated costs, contract
mismanagement, and information asymmetries that lead to poor service delivery.

While classical Agency Theory assumes formal contracts and clear principal-agent roles, this clarity is often absent in decentralized
procurement systems like those in Ethiopia. Eisenhardt (1989) emphasized that information asymmetry exacerbates opportunistic
behavior. In Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State, Abate and Said (2021) document frequent cases where procurement officers or local
officials manipulate supplier evaluations or inflate contract values in collusion with contractors, due to weak monitoring and low
detection risk.

Recent contributions expand Agency Theory by incorporating institutional design and enforcement mechanisms. Zewdu and Girma
(2022) argue that internal audit systems, procurement performance tracking, and digital procurement tools can reduce agency problems
by increasing transparency and traceability. However, these reforms require political will and capacity investment—often lacking in
politically unstable regions.

Thus, while Agency Theory provides a compelling framework to analyze procurement dysfunctions, its practical application in weak-
state settings requires adaptation. Gebretsadik (2023) proposes a hybrid agency model for Ethiopia, incorporating both vertical
accountability (to federal auditors) and horizontal accountability (to local communities) to reduce principal-agent misalignment.

2.2.3 Goal-Setting Theory

Goal-Setting Theory, proposed by Locke and Latham (1990), posits that specific, challenging goals improve individual and
organizational performance. In procurement, this theory suggests that setting clear procurement objectives—such as timely delivery,
budget adherence, and compliance—motivates procurement staff to focus their efforts and align actions with institutional goals.

However, the application of Goal-Setting Theory in public institutions must account for contextual variables such as organizational
culture, performance incentives, and political influence. Tamirat and Belay (2022) found that in several Ethiopian regional bureaus,

15
procurement officers lacked formal performance targets, and where targets existed, they were often unrealistic or disconnected from
institutional support systems. This leads to demotivation and superficial compliance rather than genuine performance improvement.

In the Somali Regional State, procurement departments often operate without formal annual procurement targets, hindering long-term
planning and performance tracking. Ali and Abdikani (2023) recommend that regional procurement authorities adopt SMART (Specific,
Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, Time-bound) targets for planning units and link them to individual performance reviews and career
advancement opportunities.

Goal-Setting Theory is most effective when supported by feedback mechanisms and regular reviews. Latham and Locke (2006)
emphasize that performance improves only when goals are coupled with frequent feedback and managerial support—elements still
underdeveloped in Ethiopia’s decentralized procurement system.

2.2.4 Expectancy Theory

Expectancy Theory, formulated by Vroom (1964), suggests that motivation depends on the perceived relationship between effort,
performance, and reward. Applied to public procurement, it implies that procurement officers will be more committed and effective
when they believe that strong performance will lead to recognition, incentives, or professional advancement.

This theory is particularly relevant in Ethiopia’s civil service context, where low remuneration, lack of recognition, and limited
promotion prospects often demotivate staff. Worku and Girum (2023) found that procurement officers in the Somali Region were less
likely to follow ethical procedures or innovate unless external incentives—such as donor recognition, promotion, or training
opportunities—were present.

Expectancy Theory thus supports the design of incentive-based procurement governance, where performance-based rewards, public
recognition, or professional development can drive behavioral change. However, in practice, the absence of reliable performance
evaluation systems in Ethiopia’s regional states hinders the operationalization of this model.

Kebede (2021) recommends a dual strategy: short-term incentives (e.g., bonuses or certificates) linked to procurement
milestones, and long-term incentives (e.g., promotions or training scholarships) tied to sustained performance. This approach
can make procurement officers more invested in long-term procurement success, especially in politically unstable regions like
Somali where turnover is high.

Integrative Theoretical Synthesis: Cross-Linking Stakeholder, Agency, Goal-Setting, and Expectancy Theories

A sophisticated understanding of procurement planning and performance necessitates a theoretical framework that moves beyond
isolated paradigms. This study integrates four major theories—Stakeholder Theory, Agency Theory, Goal-Setting Theory, and
Expectancy Theory—each contributing distinct yet complementary explanatory power. While each has traditionally been applied
independently in procurement literature, their intersection provides a richer analytical lens.

Stakeholder Theory emphasizes the necessity of engaging a diverse array of actors in procurement processes, particularly in
decentralized governance settings. In contexts like Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State, where clan-based networks and informal power
structures exert influence over procurement decisions, Stakeholder Theory underscores the risk of elite capture and the importance of
participatory mechanisms. However, stakeholder engagement alone is insufficient without mechanisms to monitor and control behavior,
which is where Agency Theory becomes relevant.

Agency Theory highlights the misalignment between principals (government authorities or the public) and agents (procurement officers
or contractors). This theory is particularly useful in explaining corruption, collusion, and inefficiency arising from weak oversight. In
environments marked by informalism and low accountability—such as the Somali Regional State—Agency Theory identifies structural
vulnerabilities that Stakeholder Theory alone cannot address. When integrated, the two theories reveal that inclusive processes must be
matched with robust accountability mechanisms to ensure performance.

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Goal-Setting Theory complements this discussion by focusing on how institutions and individuals improve performance when guided
by clear, specific, and challenging targets. The lack of procurement-related performance benchmarks in regional Ethiopian states
suggests an institutional vacuum where even participatory planning fails to translate into results due to the absence of measurable goals.
Here, Goal-Setting Theory introduces the idea that performance is a function not just of intent but of well-defined expectations and
evaluative criteria. Yet, the theory assumes that staff are motivated to pursue these goals, which may not hold in low-capacity or under-
incentivized contexts.

This leads to the final layer: Expectancy Theory. Vroom’s framework asserts that motivation is tied to the perceived connection between
effort, performance, and reward. Even when goals are clearly set, if procurement officers perceive little correlation between
performance and professional advancement, they may not be incentivized to comply. Therefore, institutional reforms must link
procurement outcomes to tangible rewards, training, or recognition programs to realize the potential of goal-setting frameworks.

Synthesizing these theories, this study proposes an integrated model wherein Stakeholder Theory ensures inclusiveness, Agency
Theory ensures accountability, Goal-Setting Theory provides performance direction, and Expectancy Theory offers
motivational alignment. These intersecting theories jointly address the structural, behavioral, and motivational aspects of
procurement planning, offering a holistic foundation for analyzing and improving procurement performance in fragile
governance settings like Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State.

2.3 Empirical Review

2.3.1 Needs Assessment in Procurement Planning

Needs assessment is the cornerstone of procurement planning, essential for aligning institutional goals with procurement activities. In
Kenya, Kiplel and Keitany (2018) demonstrated that structured needs assessment led to a 32% improvement in procurement efficiency.
Their explanatory research involving 119 vendors found that clearly defined procurement needs resulted in better delivery timelines and
supplier performance. Similarly, Ahmed (2019) used stratified sampling in Mombasa County and found strong correlations between
participatory needs assessments and service delivery outcomes.

In Ethiopia, Asres and Lemma (2022) identified inaccurate needs assessments as one of the top three contributors to procurement
failures across six regional bureaus, with Somali Region being particularly vulnerable due to outdated planning and limited stakeholder
engagement. Their mixed-methods study revealed that procurement was often driven by legacy documents rather than real-time data.

A comparative study by Musau et al. (2021) in Uganda revealed that involving end-users during procurement initiation reduced item
mismatches by 28%. This triangulated well with the Oromia-based pilot by Gutu and Desta (2023), which showed that participatory
needs assessments improved alignment with strategic objectives by over 40%.

These findings collectively emphasize that needs assessment must evolve from a bureaucratic checklist into an adaptive, evidence-based
function. Moreover, participatory models—emphasized across Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopia—are proving more effective than
centralized or administrative-only planning models.

2.3.2 Top Management Support

Top management commitment is a recurring predictor of procurement success. Larson et al. (2020), through a cross-sectional study of
East African organizations, found that management support was the strongest variable influencing procurement implementation
effectiveness. Their regression analysis showed that institutions with visible leadership engagement had better contract adherence and
lower cancellation rates.

In Ethiopia, Mekuria and Abate (2021) conducted a qualitative case study across Tigray and Somali regions, finding that management’s
active participation in procurement meetings and budgetary oversight significantly reduced delays and cost overruns. Wako and

17
Nigussie (2023) further demonstrated that where top management was politicized, procurement units faced frequent plan abandonment
and informal reallocation of contracts.

In contrast, Brammer and Walker (2011) in Nigeria and Ghana used mixed-methods research to show that leadership detachment from
procurement policy leads to weak internal controls, thereby fostering corruption and inefficiency. In comparison, Rwanda’s centralized
procurement model under NPPA (National Public Procurement Authority) enforces executive accountability by linking procurement
KPIs to managerial evaluations—showing a stronger top-down accountability loop.

Synthesizing these findings, it is evident that top management acts as both a gatekeeper and enabler—shaping institutional culture, risk
tolerance, and ethics in procurement. Without leadership buy-in, even well-formulated procurement plans fail in execution.

2.3.3 Budget Estimation in Procurement Planning

Budget estimation ensures fiscal discipline and feasibility. In Kenya, Mahmood (2010) found that due to outdated cost data, public
agencies routinely overpaid by up to 60%. A similar pattern was seen in Ethiopia’s Amhara Region by Simachew (2022), who identified
a pattern of reactive budgeting, with estimates often disconnected from real market data.

In Rwanda, the Ministry of Infrastructure’s integration of real-time price indices into procurement systems helped reduce budget
variance by over 35% in three years (UNDP, 2021). By contrast, Yusuf and Ahmed (2023) observed that in the Somali Regional State,
budget estimation was more a function of inherited ceilings than of updated needs assessments or market research.

Furthermore, Chukwuemeka et al. (2020) in Nigeria analyzed public procurement audits and found that low estimation accuracy
triggered budget reallocations in over 40% of procurement cases.

Thus, budget estimation must be iterative and linked to dynamic pricing tools and cost intelligence platforms. Countries like Rwanda
and Uganda have progressed through real-time systems, while Ethiopia lags behind due to low digitization and weak fiscal-planning
linkages, especially in peripheral regions like Somali.

2.3.4 Supplier Selection and Procurement Performance

Supplier selection is not merely technical but political and strategic. Dickson (1966) identified 23 classical supplier selection criteria—
price, quality, and delivery time being the most prominent. This has since evolved. Ho et al. (2020) conducted a systematic review
revealing that scorecard-based and prequalification frameworks outperform ad hoc methods in terms of cost-effectiveness and reduced
disputes.

In Ethiopia, Carruth (2018) noted that clan affiliations and informal ties often influence supplier selection in Somali Region,
undermining merit-based systems. Tadesse and Ali (2023) proposed hybrid models—combining community vetting, open bidding, and
technical evaluations—to promote legitimacy and compliance.

Comparatively, Kannan and Tan (2021) in South Africa demonstrated that when public institutions used automated vendor performance
systems, service delivery indicators improved by 22%. Ghana’s Public Procurement Authority enforces blacklisting of non-performing
vendors through a public portal, which is absent in Ethiopia.

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The broader synthesis suggests that supplier selection frameworks must integrate transparency, local inclusion, and technical
evaluation. While South Africa and Rwanda exemplify automated and enforced systems, Ethiopia's Somali Region remains
vulnerable to informalism and elite capture.

A critical gap in much of the literature on procurement planning in Africa lies in its fragmented and geographically narrow
analytical scope. While numerous empirical studies exist on procurement efficiency and planning processes, they tend to focus
on isolated national cases without establishing a broader comparative framework. This study addresses that gap by
systematically analyzing and synthesizing procurement planning experiences across five African countries: Kenya, Uganda,
Rwanda, South Africa, and Ethiopia. The comparative synthesis reveals both commonalities and divergences that are essential
to understanding procurement outcomes in decentralized governance contexts such as Ethiopia's Somali Regional State.

In Kenya, the adoption of e-Government Procurement (e-GP) platforms and participatory needs assessments has led to significant
improvements in procurement efficiency. Kiplel and Keitany (2018) found a 32% efficiency gain attributed to structured needs
assessments and vendor engagement. Similarly, Rwanda has institutionalized procurement key performance indicators (KPIs) through
its National Public Procurement Authority (NPPA), integrating procurement outcomes with managerial evaluations and budget
transparency mechanisms (UNDP, 2021). Uganda emphasizes decentralized procurement oversight and local government
accountability, resulting in better alignment between procurement plans and service delivery (Musau et al., 2021). In contrast, South
Africa has leveraged automated vendor management systems and public supplier databases to reduce procurement cycle times and
minimize supplier disputes (Kannan & Tan, 2021).

Ethiopia, particularly in its peripheral regions like the Somali Regional State, remains markedly behind these comparators. Studies by
Simachew (2022) and Carruth (2018) reveal that procurement planning is often reactive, budget estimation is based on outdated
ceilings, and supplier selection is influenced by informal networks rather than transparent performance metrics. The lack of real-time
procurement dashboards, performance-linked indicators, and community vetting mechanisms positions Ethiopia at a structural
disadvantage relative to its regional peers.

Importantly, while countries like Kenya and Rwanda demonstrate the effectiveness of participatory and technology-driven procurement
planning, Ethiopia's Somali Regional State continues to operate through legacy systems, weak institutional capacities, and limited
stakeholder engagement. This gap in institutional maturity and systemic accountability has direct consequences for procurement
performance.

Synthesizing these cross-national insights, it becomes clear that procurement planning reform in Ethiopia must adopt a hybrid approach
that combines digital tools, stakeholder inclusion, and performance tracking systems. Comparative evidence underscores that the
effectiveness of procurement planning is contingent not merely on the presence of plans but on their integration with broader
governance reforms, including transparency mechanisms, feedback loops, and managerial accountability. The lessons from Kenya and
Rwanda suggest that Ethiopia can benefit from adopting real-time procurement monitoring systems and institutionalizing citizen
participation in planning phases, especially in regions facing political volatility and weak state capacity.

Thus, the comparative analysis highlights a critical learning opportunity: while procurement planning frameworks may share common
structural features across African countries, their effectiveness is shaped by context-specific variables such as political decentralization,
digital infrastructure, and institutional culture. For Ethiopia's Somali Regional State, bridging the gap with high-performing regional
peers requires not only procedural reform but a reconfiguration of accountability structures that tie planning to measurable procurement
outcomes.

2.5 Literature Gap

Despite a growing body of literature on public procurement reform in sub-Saharan Africa, several key gaps persist—particularly in
relation to Ethiopia’s decentralized regions. This section identifies four interrelated gaps that justify the present study.

1. Contextual Gap: Underrepresentation of Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State

While research on procurement planning is extensive in Kenya, Uganda, and Rwanda, few empirical studies focus on Ethiopia’s Somali
Regional State. Most Ethiopian literature centers on federal institutions or better-resourced regional states like Oromia or Amhara
(Simachew, 2019; Alemu & Tegegn, 2020). However, the Somali Region presents a unique set of challenges—including political
instability, clan dynamics, limited infrastructure, and post-conflict governance—that require context-specific analysis. As Carruth
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(2018) notes, the absence of such localized studies limits the development of procurement strategies tailored to fragile sub-national
units.

2. Integrated Perspective Gap: Fragmented Examination of Planning Dimensions

Many existing studies focus narrowly on individual procurement planning components—such as needs assessment or supplier selection
—without evaluating their combined effect on performance (Bekele & Mulugeta, 2021). Yet, procurement success is typically the result
of interdependent planning elements functioning cohesively. This research addresses that gap by integrating four key planning
dimensions and analyzing their collective and disaggregated impact on procurement performance.

3. Sectoral Gap: Neglect of Peripheral or Rural Public Institutions

Most empirical studies on procurement in Ethiopia concentrate on urban service sectors (e.g., education, health, utilities) or federal
ministries. As a result, little is known about how procurement operates in peripheral regions where infrastructure is weak, institutional
turnover is high, and monitoring capacity is minimal (Kifle, 2020). This study targets public bureaus in the Somali Regional State—
offering new insight into decentralized procurement in rural, low-capacity contexts.

4. Engagement and Accountability Gap: Limited Emphasis on Local Participation

Although some research emphasizes citizen oversight or community involvement in budgeting and service delivery (Gebretsadik, 2023),
few studies explore how local engagement affects procurement planning or supplier selection in regional states. In environments marked
by political fragility and social fragmentation, informal stakeholders often shape procurement outcomes. This study integrates
stakeholder theory to analyze how (and whether) local actors are meaningfully involved in procurement planning processes—and how
that influences transparency and performance.

Conclusion

This study responds directly to the above-identified gaps by conducting a comprehensive, multi-dimensional analysis of procurement
planning and performance within the Somali Regional State. Its contribution lies in:

 Integrating procurement planning variables into a unified analytical framework,

 Contextualizing findings within a decentralized, fragile governance setting,
 Offering empirical evidence on the institutional, political, and managerial factors shaping procurement outcomes.

By addressing these underexplored dimensions, the study seeks to inform procurement policy, enhance regional procurement capacity,
and contribute to the broader literature on public administration in developing, decentralized states.

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2.4 Conceptual Framework

A conceptual framework serves as the intellectual structure guiding empirical research. It links theoretical perspectives with observable
variables to explain causal relationships within a specific context (McGaghie, Bordage, & Shea, 2001). For this study, the conceptual
framework illustrates how the core dimensions of procurement planning—namely needs assessment, top management support, budget
estimation, and supplier selection—are hypothesized to affect procurement performance in Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State.

Independent Variable: Procurement Planning

Needs Assessment
Informed by stakeholder theory and systems thinking, this dimension captures how accurately institutions identify, document, and
prioritize actual procurement needs. Effective needs assessment minimizes overstocking, stockouts, and budgetary misalignment.
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 1. Top Management Support
Drawing from Goal-Setting and Institutional Theories, this dimension includes senior leadership’s involvement in endorsing
procurement plans, allocating resources, and upholding procurement ethics. It is considered a prerequisite for successful
implementation and accountability.
2. Budget Estimation
This component is grounded in public financial management literature and Agency Theory. It assesses how procurement units
translate needs into cost projections and whether they align with current market realities and fiscal ceilings.
3. Supplier Selection
Anchored in governance theory and empirical vendor management frameworks, this dimension reflects the extent to which
procurement entities use transparent, merit-based criteria to engage capable, ethical, and efficient suppliers.

Dependent Variable: Procurement Performance

Procurement performance in this study is measured through cost-effectiveness, timeliness, compliance, and service delivery outcomes.
Building on prior models (Basheka, 2014; UNOPS, 2022), it is treated as the net result of procurement planning effectiveness,
moderated by the institutional context of the Somali Regional State.

Framework Visualization (Narrative Format)

The framework hypothesizes a direct and positive relationship between procurement planning and procurement performance. Each
planning dimension contributes to procurement outcomes individually, but the full effect is realized when all components function in an
integrated manner. Moderating factors such as political interference, institutional capacity, and regional volatility may influence this
relationship and are accounted for in analysis design.

This model is both theoretically grounded and empirically adaptable. It allows for hypothesis testing while accommodating the unique
socio-political dynamics of decentralized governance systems like Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State.

CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1 Introduction

Methodological rigor constitutes the foundational pillar upon which the credibility and academic integrity of empirical research are
constructed. This chapter presents a comprehensive methodological framework employed in assessing the relationship between
procurement planning and procurement performance within selected public institutions in the Somali Regional State of Ethiopia. The
research design is situated within the pragmatic paradigm and is operationalized through a concurrent mixed-methods approach. The
chapter systematically articulates the philosophical assumptions, research design, case selection rationale, data sources, sampling
strategies, instrumentation, analytical procedures, and ethical considerations. Each component is justified in light of the research
objectives and situated within contemporary methodological literature.

3.2 description of the study area

The study is geographically and institutionally situated in Jigjiga, the capital of the Somali Regional State of Ethiopia. As a key
administrative hub, Jigjiga serves as the seat of strategic public institutions, including the Bureau of Water and Energy and the Road
Authority. These institutions collectively account for a significant share of the region's procurement expenditure—exceeding 60%
according to recent fiscal audits (Somali Regional Government, 2023). Jigjiga’s political status as a semi-autonomous regional capital
within a federal structure, its institutional maturity, and its high procurement activity render it an analytically productive site for
investigating public procurement planning and performance dynamics. The choice of study area thus aligns with the methodological
principle of theoretical sampling, where empirical settings are selected for their relevance to the constructs under investigation
(Silverman, 2013).

3.3 Research Philosophy and Theoretical Paradigm

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3.3.1 Ontological and Epistemological positioning

This study adopts a pragmatic research philosophy, which prioritizes the utility of methodological choices in resolving real-world
problems over strict adherence to epistemological orthodoxy. As Morgan (2007) contends, pragmatism bridges the positivist-
interpretivist divide by endorsing ontological pluralism and epistemological pluralism. Reality is understood as both objective and
socially constructed, allowing for the simultaneous consideration of measurable indicators (e.g., procurement performance scores) and
subjective experiences (e.g., perceptions of planning effectiveness). This duality is essential for the study of public procurement, which
embodies both technical-rational procedures and socially embedded practices. Thus, the adoption of pragmatism legitimizes
methodological pluralism and supports the generation of nuanced, policy-relevant insights (Mertens, 2015).

3.3.2 Methodological Framework: Justification for Mixed-Methods Design

In accordance with the pragmatic paradigm, the study utilizes a concurrent mixed-methods research design, wherein both qualitative and
quantitative data are collected and analyzed in parallel. This design choice is guided by the objective of triangulation, defined as the
convergence of multiple data sources and analytical perspectives to enhance construct validity (Greene et al., 1989). The quantitative
component assesses statistical relationships between procurement planning variables—namely supplier selection, needs assessment, top
management support, and budget estimation—and procurement performance. Meanwhile, the qualitative component explores the
institutional, procedural, and political factors influencing planning practices through key informant interviews and document analysis.
The mixed-methods strategy is also undergirded by theoretical frameworks such as principal-agent theory and the New Public
Management (NPM) paradigm, both of which emphasize the importance of planning, performance metrics, and institutional alignment
in the public sector (Hood, 1991; Jensen & Meckling, 1976).

3.4 Research Design

3.4.1 Case Study and Cross-Sectional Survey

The research adopts a single-embedded case study design, focusing on two key public institutions: the Bureau of Water and Energy and
the Road Authority. The case study approach, as elaborated by Yin (2014), facilitates an in-depth exploration of complex administrative
phenomena within bounded institutional contexts. To complement this, a cross-sectional survey design was employed, enabling
statistical generalization across different units within the selected institutions. The integration of these designs reflects a convergent
logic, where context-specific depth and breadth of inference are simultaneously pursued (Bryman, 2016).

3.4.2 Convergent Parallel Structure

Data collection for both qualitative and quantitative components occurred simultaneously. Each data strand was analyzed independently
and merged at the interpretation stage to allow for meta-inference. This convergent parallel design, as proposed by Creswell and Plano
Clark (2018), enhances the robustness of findings by facilitating cross-validation. The convergent structure also enables the
identification of confirmatory, complementary, and contradictory patterns, which enrich interpretive depth and analytical coherence.

3.5 Sampling Strategy

3.5.1 Target Population and Sampling Frame

The target population consisted of 262 professionals employed in procurement-related roles across the two institutions. These included
procurement officers, finance staff, planning experts, engineers, and departmental heads. The sampling frame was constructed using
institutionally verified personnel rosters and cross-validated against internal organograms and procurement audit reports to ensure role
relevance and accuracy.

3.5.2 Sampling Technique

A census sampling strategy was adopted, incorporating the entire eligible population within the two institutions. The rationale for this
approach lies in its ability to eliminate sampling bias, ensure comprehensive data representation, and enhance the study’s inferential
credibility—especially given the finite and manageable population size (Fink, 2013). Census sampling is particularly appropriate for
institutional research where policymakers may demand complete evidence bases for performance evaluation.

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3.6 Data Sources and Instruments

This study utilized both quantitative and qualitative instruments to capture a comprehensive understanding of procurement planning and
its effect on procurement performance.

3.6.1 Quantitative Instrumentation

To assess the four principal dimensions of procurement planning—supplier selection, needs assessment, top management support, and
budget estimation—a structured questionnaire was developed. Each item utilized a five-point Likert scale, ranging from “strongly
disagree” to “strongly agree,” to ensure consistency and comparability in responses. The instrument drew upon validated scales
previously established in the public procurement literature (e.g., Thai, 2009; Basheka, 2008), ensuring both conceptual robustness and
empirical grounding. Prior to deployment, the questionnaire underwent expert validation by procurement professionals and academic
reviewers, followed by pilot testing among a small subset of the target population to assess linguistic clarity, contextual appropriateness,
and respondent burden.

3.6.2 Qualitative Instrumentation

The qualitative dimension of the study was designed to complement and enrich the quantitative findings through the collection of
contextual and experiential data. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with ten purposively selected key informants occupying
senior roles in procurement and planning. These individuals were selected for their institutional knowledge and decision-making
authority. In addition to interviews, institutional documents—including procurement manuals, audit reports, strategic plans, and internal
correspondence—were systematically reviewed. Data were thematically coded using NVivo 12 software, with initial coding frameworks
derived from key phases in the procurement lifecycle (Bowen, 2009). This triangulation of data sources aimed to provide a layered
understanding of planning practices and their institutional embeddedness.

3.8 Data Collection Procedures

Data collection for the study was structured to uphold methodological rigor, ethical standards, and data integrity across both quantitative
and qualitative strands.

3.8.1 Quantitative Protocol

The distribution of the structured questionnaire was carried out through both digital platforms and in-person administration to maximize
response rates and accommodate participant preferences. To safeguard the reliability of the dataset, all responses were anonymized and
subsequently double-entered into SPSS version 20 to prevent transcription errors. The data underwent comprehensive preprocessing,
which included normality testing, handling of missing values through imputation techniques, and management of outliers based on
standardized residual thresholds. These procedures ensured the statistical validity of the findings. Ethical protocols, including informed
consent and voluntary participation, were rigorously observed throughout the process.

3.8.2 Qualitative Protocol

The qualitative data collection process involved private, one-on-one interviews held within institutional office settings to ensure
confidentiality and minimize disruptions. All interviews were audio-recorded with prior informed consent and transcribed verbatim to
preserve data authenticity. Member checking was conducted by returning transcripts to interviewees for verification, thereby enhancing
credibility. For document analysis, a predefined matrix was developed to map relevant text segments to the four procurement planning
dimensions. This structured approach facilitated consistency in interpretation and alignment with the study’s analytical framework.

3.7 Instrument Validity and Reliability

3.7.1 Validity test

Three forms of validity were addressed. Content validity was evaluated using Lawshe’s (1975) Content Validity Index, with all retained
items exceeding the minimum CVI threshold of 0.80. Construct validity was assessed through exploratory factor analysis (EFA),
ensuring factor loadings above 0.60 and acceptable KMO values (>0.70). Bartlett’s test confirmed data suitability (p < 0.001). Face
validity was established through pilot testing with 10% of the population, confirming readability and interpretability.

3.7.2 Reliability Assessment

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Reliability of the quantitative instrument was confirmed using Cronbach’s alpha, with all subscales exceeding the 0.70 benchmark
(Nunnally & Bernstein, 1994). Stability was confirmed through test-retest reliability (r > 0.80). In the qualitative component,
trustworthiness was assured through methodological triangulation, member checking, and audit trails in accordance with Lincoln and
Guba’s (1985) framework.

Table 4.1: Reliability Statistics

Cronbach's Alpha N of Items

.81 20

All responses are meausured on five point scale anchored on 1- “ strongly disagree” and 2- “ disagree” 3.”neutral” 4- “agree” 5-“
strongly agree”. So the respondent are requested to indicate the extent that each statement characterized the using Likert scale format
from 1( strongly disagree) to 5 ( strongly disagree).

3.10 Ethical Considerations

3.10.1 Ethical Approval and Oversight

The research protocol received ethical clearance from the Institutional Review Board of the Ethiopian Civil Service University (Ref No.
2025-PPM-03). All procedures adhered to national and international guidelines on human subjects research.

3.10.2 Informed Consent and Confidentiality

Participants signed written consent forms prior to data collection. Data were anonymized, encrypted, and stored securely. Pseudonyms
were assigned to interviewees to preserve confidentiality.

3.10.3 Reflexivity and Positionality

The researcher maintained a reflexive journal to document field experiences, analytical decisions, and potential biases. This practice,
along with peer debriefing and member checking, enhanced transparency and credibility.

3.10.4 Ethical Closure and Reciprocity

Findings were disseminated in anonymized form to participating institutions. Interested respondents received summary reports,
consistent with principles of ethical closure, transparency, and research reciprocity (Israel & Hay, 2006).

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 CHAPTER FOUR

DATA ANALYSIS, PRESENTATION AND INTERPRETATION

1 .Introduction

This chapter presents the results of the empirical analysis undertaken to examine the relationship between public procurement planning
and procurement performance in the Somali Regional State. The study draws upon data collected through structured questionnaires
administered to procurement officers, finance managers, and project leaders within the Road Authority and Water and Energy Bureaus.
These data were analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 16.0. The analysis integrates both descriptive
and inferential statistical techniques to respond to the study's specific objectives and research questions.

Procurement planning is disaggregated into four primary dimensions: supplier selection, top management support, needs assessment,
and budget estimation. These variables are measured against procurement performance indicators such as cost efficiency, quality
compliance, and timely delivery. The chapter is structured to first present descriptive statistics for each planning component, followed
by inferential statistical testing using Pearson correlation and multiple linear regression analyses. Statistical tables, figures, and
interpretive commentary accompany each analytical section to offer comprehensive insight into both individual variable performance
and the integrated model outcomes.

This chapter also addresses critical assumptions for regression modeling, including linearity, normality of residuals, homoscedasticity,
multicollinearity, and independence of errors, to ensure that the inferential results are statistically valid and robust. The interpretation of
findings integrates empirical literature and theoretical perspectives, particularly Agency Theory, Goal-Setting Theory, and Stakeholder
Theory, to contextualize the results and provide policy-relevant implications. Through this comprehensive analytical approach, the
chapter aims to diagnose the systemic strengths and weaknesses of procurement planning practices in the Somali Regional State and
assess their impact on overall procurement effectiveness.

4.2.1. Response Rate

The quality and representativeness of empirical data depend significantly on the rate and distribution of responses collected. Out of
262 questionnaires distributed to procurement professionals across the Road Authority and Water and Energy Bureaus, a total of 209
were completed and returned, resulting in a response rate of 80%. This rate is widely considered robust in survey research, providing
adequate coverage and reducing the risk of non-response bias (Dillman et al., 2014). The remaining 53 unreturned questionnaires
(20%) may be attributed to logistical challenges, administrative delays, or participant disinterest. Nevertheless, the achieved
response rate provides a strong foundation for statistical analysis and enhances the generalizability of findings

Table 4.1 Response Rate

Description Frequency
Number Percent
Returned 209 80%
Not returned 53 20%
Total distributed 262 100%
Demographic Characteristics of the Respondents

Understanding the demographic profile of the study’s respondents is essential to contextualizing their perspectives and experiences in
relation to procurement practices. Demographic variables analyzed include sex, age, educational attainment, work experience, and job

26
designation. These characteristics provide a lens through which variations in procurement planning attitudes and performance
expectations can be interpreted.

The 209 respondents included personnel from various units within the Road Authority and the Water and Energy Bureaus, representing
a balanced cross-section of the regional public procurement workforce. Table 4.2 below summarizes these characteristics.

Table [Link] ,age ,educational level, work experience and job position Cross tabulation

Variables frequency Percentage

Sex Male 125 59.8
Female 84 40.2
0
Total 209 100
Age of the 24 years and below 29 13.9
respondent
25 – 34 years 90 43.1
35 – 44 years 63 30.0
45 years and above 27 13.0
Total 209 100
Educational level Diploma 11 5.3
Degree 16 78.0
3
Masters 35 16.7
Total 209 100
Work experience Less than 1 year 25 11.9
6
1 – 5 years 14 68.9
6 – 10 years 638 18.8
Total 20 100
99
Finance head 40 19.1
Job Procurement 10 48.8
jjjpositio officers 2
Project managers 67 32.1
Total 20 100
9
Interpretation of Demographic Characteristics

The demographic profile of respondents provides foundational insights into the composition and representativeness of the study sample,
which is vital for assessing the reliability and applicability of findings related to procurement planning and performance within the
Somali Regional State’s public institutions. The sample reflects key variables including sex, age, education, work experience, and job
position—each of which contributes to the contextual understanding of procurement-related attitudes and behaviors.

Sex Distribution
Out of the 209 respondents, 125 (59.8%) identified as male and 84 (40.2%) as female. While a slight majority of participants are male,
the sample demonstrates relatively balanced gender participation in a field traditionally dominated by men. The 40.2% female
representation suggests meaningful gender inclusion in procurement roles, potentially allowing for more diverse input into decision-
making processes. This balance strengthens the generalizability of the study findings across gender lines and reflects progress toward
gender equity in public sector staffing, particularly within procurement and infrastructure-focused bureaus.

AOut of the 209 respondents ,125 (59.8%) identified as a male and 84 (40.2%) as female. while a slight majority of the participants are
male , the sample demonstrates relatively balanced gender participation in the a field traditionally dominated by man . the 40.2%
27
female representation suggest meaningful gender inclusion in procurement roles , potentially allowing for more diverse input id
decision-making process. This balance strengthens the generalizability of the study finding across gender lines and reflects progress
toward gender equity in public sector staffing particularly within procurement and infrastructure- focused bureaus.

Age Distribution
The age distribution reveals that the largest proportion of respondents (43.1%) are between the ages of 25–34, followed by 30.0% in the
35–44 age bracket. Respondents aged 24 years and below constitute 13.9%, while those aged 45 and above represent 13.0%. This
indicates a workforce largely composed of young to mid-career professionals, which is often associated with high energy levels,
openness to innovation, and adaptability to procedural reforms. However, the lower proportion of older professionals (13.0%) may
reflect a limitation in institutional memory and senior strategic leadership in procurement roles, which could affect long-term
procurement planning continuity.

The age distribution reveals that the largest proportion of respondents (43.1%) are between the ages of 25-34, followed by 30.0% in the
35-44 age bracket. Respondents aged 24 years below constitute 13.9%, while those aged 45 and above represent 13.0% this indicates a
workforce largely composed of young to mid-career professionals, which is often associated with high energy levels, openness to
innovation, and adaptability to procured reforms. How ever the lower proportions of older professionals (13.0%) may reflect a limitation

In institutional memory and senior strategic leadership in procurement roles, which could affect long-term procurement planning
continuity .

Educational Attainment
Educationally, the respondents exhibit a high level of formal qualification. A significant majority (78.0%) hold bachelor's degrees,
followed by 16.7% who possess master's degrees, and 5.3% who have attained diploma-level qualifications. The dominance of degree
holders indicates a theoretically knowledgeable workforce capable of engaging with complex procurement concepts such as value-for-
money analysis, risk management, and performance-based contracting. The presence of postgraduate-level qualifications among 16.7%
of respondents further suggests a core group with advanced analytical and managerial capacity, which is vital for strategic procurement
planning. The minimal percentage of diploma holders (5.3%) may imply that technical-level staff are underrepresented in strategic
procurement roles within the bureaus.

Educationnaly , the respondents exhibit a high level of formal qualification. A significant of majority (78.0%) holds bachelor’s degrees,

Followed by 16.7% who possess masters degrees, and 5,3% who have attained a diploma- level qualifications. The dominance of degree
holders indicates a theoretically knowledgeable workforce capable of engaging with complex procurement concepts such as value-for-
money analysis, risk management, and performance-based contracting. The presence of postgraduate-level qualification among 16.7%

Of respondents further suggests a core group with advanced analytical and managerial capacity , which is vital for strategic
procurement planning . the minimal percentage of dimploma holders (5.3%) may imply that technical-level staff are underreperented in
strategic procurement roles within the bureaus.

Work Experience
With respect to professional experience, 146 respondents (68.9%) have between 1 and 5 years of experience, followed by 38 (18.8%)
who have 6 to 10 years of experience, and 25 (11.96%) who have less than one year of experience. The dominant presence of early- to
mid-career professionals suggests that most participants have had sufficient exposure to procurement operations to provide informed
responses, yet may still be in developmental phases of their careers. While this is positive for operational learning and responsiveness to

28
training, it may also highlight a gap in seasoned leadership capable of overseeing high-stakes procurement activities that demand
advanced planning, negotiation, and risk oversight.

With respect to professional experience, 146 respondents (68.9%) have between 1 and 5 years of experience , followed by 38 (18.8%)
who have to 6 to 10 years of experience , and 25( 11.96%) who have less than one year of experience. The dominant presence of
early-to mid- career professionals suggests that most participants have had sufficient exposure to procurement operations to provide
informed responses, yet may still be in developmental phases of their careers. While this positive for operational learning and
responsiveness to training , it may also highlights a gab seasoned leadership capable of overseeing high-stakes procurement activities
that demand advanced planning, negotiation , and risk oversight.

Job Position
The professional roles of the respondents are directly relevant to the study’s focus on procurement planning. Procurement Officers make
up nearly half the sample at 102 respondents (48.8%), followed by Project Managers at 67 (32.1%), and Finance Heads at 40 (19.1%).
This distribution is appropriate for a study evaluating the strategic, operational, and financial dimensions of procurement planning and
performance. Procurement Officers, representing the largest group, are the primary implementers of planning activities. Project
Managers bring insight into the alignment of procurement with project delivery timelines, while Finance Heads offer perspectives on
budget estimation, fiscal discipline, and compliance. The inclusion of all three categories provides a triangulated understanding of
procurement performance from execution, planning, and financial accountability standpoints.

The professionals roles of the respondents are directly relevant to the studys focus on procurement planning .procurement officers make
up nearly half of the sample at 102 respondents (48.8%), followed by project managers at 67(32.1%) and finance heads at 40 (19.1%)

This distribution is appropriate for a study evaluating the strategic, operational, and financial dimensions of procurement planning and
performance , procurement officers, and representing the largest group , are the primary implementers of planning activites , project
managers bring insight into the alignment of procurement with project delivery timelines , while finance heads offer perspectives on
budget estimation, fiscal discipline , and compliance. The inclusion all the three categories provides a triangulated understanding of
procurement performance from execution , planning , and financial accountability

Descriptive statistics and finding

Supplier selection on procurement performance

Supplier selection is a fundamental pillar of procurement planning and has a direct impact on the quality, efficiency, and risk exposure
of public procurement processes. Effective supplier selection ensures that contracts are awarded to vendors capable of delivering value
for money, maintaining delivery timelines, and complying with technical specifications. The theoretical underpinnings of supplier
selection are grounded in Transaction Cost Economics and Principal-Agent Theory, which emphasize minimizing procurement risks and
aligning agent behavior with institutional goals (Williamson, 1985).

To assess the status of supplier selection in the Somali Regional State, respondents were asked to evaluate several dimensions of
supplier vetting, including transparency, consistency of criteria, risk minimization, and consideration of supplier history.

29
 OBJECTIVE : To examine the effect of supplier selection on the effectiveness of public procurement performance in the
Somali Regional State.

TABLE 4.4 RESPONSES ON supplier selection

questions Scale PERCEN CUMULATIVE N MEA Std .de
T N vt
1 . The supplier Strongly 27.8 209 2.21 1.13
selection process disagree
ensures that the most
qualified suppliers are Disagree 41.1 68.9
chosen, leading to
improved
Neutral 17.2 86.1
procurement
performance Agree 9.1 95.2
Strongly agree 4.8 100

2 Strongly 29.9 209 2.16 1.11

Consistent
disagree
application of
supplier selection Disagree 43.3 73.2

criteria across all Neutral 14.1 87.3

procurement Agree 8.6 95.6

projects enhances Strongly agree 4.3 100

procurement
performance

3 The supplier selection Strongly 26.3 18.6 209 2.31 1.14

process effectively disagree
minimizes risks, agree 37.3 63.6
thereby improving Neutral 20.6 84.2
procurement Agree 10.5 94.7
performance Strongly agree 5.3 100

4 Considering supplier Strongly 21.5 209 2.39 1.12

reputation and disagree
experience in Disagree 39.7 61.2
selection contributes Neutral 21.5 82.7
to better procurement Agree 13.4 96.1
performance Strongly agre 4.0 100

5 Strongly 24.4 209 2.41 1.18

A transparent
disagree
supplier selection
30
 Disagree 36.4 60.8
process leads to the
identification of Neutral 19.6 80.4

high-quality Agree 12.9 93.3

suppliers, enhancing 100

procurement strongly agree 6.7

performance

Interpretation of Findings on Supplier Selection Practices

The data collected from respondents provide critical insight into perceptions of the effectiveness and integrity of the supplier selection
process. As the above results show, the majority of respondents expressed dissatisfaction with key dimensions of supplier selection,
including transparency, consistency, and risk mitigation. Each item is interpreted below with reference to the full Likert scale response,
followed by an evaluation of the mean and standard deviation to assess the central tendency and dispersion of responses.

In relation to the first item “The supplier selection process ensures the most qualified suppliers are chosen”—a combined 68.9% of
respondents expressed disagreement (27.8% strongly disagreed, 41.1% disagreed), while only 13.9% registered agreement and 17.2%
opted for neutrality. The recorded mean score of 2.21, considerably below the neutral midpoint of 3.0 on the Likert scale, points to a
pronounced skepticism regarding the merit-based integrity of the supplier selection process. The standard deviation of 1.13 indicates
moderate variability in responses, potentially attributable to differentiated practices across departments or uneven exposure to
procurement procedures.

In relation to the first item “ the supplier selection process ensures that the most qualified suppliers are chosen” a combined 68.9% of
the respondents expressed disagreement, with 27.8% strongly disagreed, 41.1% disagreed , while only 13.9 % agreed and 17.2% opted
for neutrality. The record mean score of 2.21, considerably below the neutral midpoint of 3.0 on the Likert scale, points to be
pronounced skepticism regarding the merit-based integrity of the supplier selection process. The standard deviation of 1.13 indicates
moderate variability in responses, potentially attributable to differentiated practices across department or uneven exposure to
procurement procedures.

For the second Item “Selection criteria are applied consistently across all procurement projects”—levels of dissatisfaction were even
more pronounced. Approximately 72.7% of respondents disagreed with this statement, with 29.2% strongly disagreeing and 43.5%
disagreeing. Only 12.9% expressed any form of agreement. This item produced the lowest mean score (2.16) among all indicators,
reflecting a widespread perception that standardized supplier evaluation frameworks are not uniformly enforced. The relatively low
standard deviation (1.11) suggests a broadly shared sentiment across the respondent pool, reinforcing the view that inconsistency in
criteria application is not an isolated phenomenon, but a systemic deficiency.

For the second it “supplier selection are all applied consistently across all procurement” levels of dissatisfaction were even more
pronounced . approximately 72.2% of respondents disagreed with this statement, with 29.2% strongly disagreeing and 43.5%
disagreeing. Only 12.9% expressed any of agreement. This item produced the lowest mean score (2.16) among all indicators , reflecting
a widespread perception that standardized supplier selection frameworks are not uniformly enforced, the relatively low standard
deviations (1.11) suggest a broadly shared sentiments across the respondents pool, reinforcing the view that inconsistency in criteria
application is not isolated phenomenon , but systematic deficiency.

31
The third indicator “Supplier selection minimizes procurement-related risks”—elicited a somewhat less severe, though still
predominantly critical, response. A total of 63.6% of respondents disagreed (26.3% strongly, 37.3% moderately), while only 15.8%
expressed agreement and 20.6% remained neutral. The mean score of 2.31 further reinforces the notion that the existing selection
process does not adequately guard against procurement risks such as performance failure, contractual disputes, or delivery delays. A
standard deviation of 1.14 denotes some dispersion in respondent perspectives, possibly due to varying degrees of institutional exposure
to risk management practices.

The third indicator “ supplier selection minimizes procurement- related risk” eleicted a somewhat less severe, though still predominantly
critical , response . A total of 63.3% of respondents disagreed (26.3% strongly ,37.3% moderately), while only 15.8% expressed
agreement and 20.6% remained neutral. The mean score of 2.31 further reinforces than notions that the existing selection process does
not adequately

Guard against procurement risks such as performance failure, contractual disputes, or delivery delays . standard deviation of 1.14
denotes some dispersion in respondents perspectives, possibly due to varying degrees of institutional exposure to risk management
practices.

With respect to the fourth item “Supplier reputation and experience are seriously considered in the selection process”—respondents
once again expressed clear discontent. A total of 61.2% disagreed, while 17.4% agreed and 21.5% maintained a neutral stance. The
mean score of 2.39 suggests that although considerations of supplier history and credibility may occur sporadically, they are not reliably
or systematically integrated into decision-making frameworks. A moderate standard deviation of 1.12 may indicate that certain
departments or projects adopt more rigorous review standards than others.

With respects to the fourth item “supplier reputation and experience are seriously considered in the selection process” respondents once
against expressed clear discontent. A total of 61.2% disagreed, while 17.4 agreed and 21.5% maintained a neutral stance . the mean
score of 2.39 suggests that although considerations of supplier history and credibility may occur sporadically , they are not reliably or
systematically integrated into decision-making frameworks. A moderate standard deviation of 1.12 may indicate that certain
departments or projects adopt more rigorous rewiew standard than others.

The fifth and final indicator “A transparent supplier selection process leads to high-quality procurement outcomes”—garnered the
highest mean score (2.41) among the five, though this still falls significantly short of a neutral or positive evaluation. A total of 60.8%
of respondents disagreed with the statement, 19.6% remained neutral, and only 19.6% expressed agreement. The relatively elevated
standard deviation of 1.18 suggests considerable variation in respondent experiences and potentially differing interpretations of what
constitutes transparency or outcome quality in practice.

The fifth and final indicator “A transparent supplier selection process leads to high-quality procurement outcomes” garnered the highest
mean score of 2.41 among the five, though this still falls significantly short or neutral or positive evaluation. A total of 60.8% of the
respondents disagreed with the statement, 19.6% remained neutral, and only 19.6% expressed agreement . the relatively elevated
standard deviation of 1.18 suggests considerable variation in respondent experiences and potentially differing interpretations of what
constitutes

Transparency or outcome quality in practices.

The results indicate widespread dissatisfaction with supplier selection processes. All mean scores fall significantly below the neutral
midpoint of 3.0, highlighting systemic weaknesses. The lowest-rated item, with a mean of 2.16, pertains to the inconsistency in applying
32
supplier evaluation criteria, which suggests an absence of standardized assessment protocols across bureaus. Furthermore, the relatively
low variation in standard deviations implies shared perceptions across departments.

The results indicate widespread dissatisfaction with supplier selection process. All mean scores fall significantly below the neutral
midpoint of 3.0 , highlighting systemic weaknesses. The lowest-rated item, with a mean of 2.16, pertains to the inconsistency in
applying

Supplier evaluation criteria, which suggests an absence of standardized assessment protocols across bureaus. Furthermore , the
relatively low variation in standard deviations implies shared perceptions across departments.

These findings align with qualitative data from FGD participants, who reported undue political influence and lack of accountability in
supplier choice. As one procurement officer noted, "Sometimes we are pressured to accept suppliers who fail technical evaluation, due
to directives from superiors." This reflects an Agency Theory problem where principal-agent misalignment leads to suboptimal
procurement decisions.

These findings align with qualitative data from FGD participants , who reported undue political influence and lack of accountability in
supplier choice. As one procurement officer noted, “ sometimes we are pressured to accept suppliers who fail technical evaluation, due
to directives from suppliers “ this reflects agency theory problem where principal-agent misalignment leads to suboptimal procurement
decisions

The negative perceptions are also consistent with regional studies. Mengistu and Kifle (2021) report similar concerns in Ethiopian
public procurement, where poorly defined supplier evaluation frameworks have led to delays and quality shortfalls. In Nigeria, Ayodeji
et al. (2022) emphasized the critical role of competency-based supplier vetting in improving public sector procurement efficiency.

The negative perceptions are also consistent with regional studies. Mengistu and Kifle (2021) report similar concerns in Ethiopian
public procurement, where poorly defined supplier evaluation frameworks have led to delays and quality shortfalls. In Nigeria Ayodeji
et al. (2022) emphasized the critical role of competency-based supplier vetting in improving public sector efficiency

In summary, the supplier selection process in the Somali Regional State is perceived as deficient in transparency, consistency, and rigor.
These deficiencies undermine procurement outcomes and expose institutions to performance and compliance risks. Addressing these
issues requires the institutionalization of standardized evaluation criteria, professional autonomy for procurement officers, and
mechanisms to insulate procurement decisions from external interference.

In summary , the supplier selection process in the somali regional state perceived as deficient in transparency , consistency ,and rigor,
these deficiencies undermine procurement outcomes and expose institutions to performance and compliance risk. Addressing these
issues requires the institutionalization of standardized evaluation criteria , professional autonomy of procurement officers, and
mechanism to insulate procurement decisions from external interference

Top management support on procurement performance

33
Top management support is widely recognized in procurement literature as a cornerstone of effective procurement systems. It influences
procurement planning by ensuring adequate resource allocation, reinforcing procedural compliance, and providing strategic guidance.
According to Prajogo and McDermott (2014), active senior management engagement enhances alignment between procurement
objectives and broader organizational goals, while the OECD (2018) emphasizes that managerial oversight mitigates risks of
inefficiency and corruption.

To assess perceptions of top management support, the study explored five dimensions: resource provision, strategic involvement,
support in resolving procurement challenges, overall commitment, and responsiveness through feedback.

OBJECTIVE ;To assess the impact of senior management support on the performance of public procurement in the Somali
Regional State.

TABLE 4.5 RESPONSES ON TOP MANAGEMENT SUPPORT

questions Scale PERCEN CUMULATIVE N MEA [Link]

T N vita
1 Provision of adequate Strongly disagree 7.1 209 2.56 1.03
resources by senior Disagree 51.1 58.2
management supports
the procurement Neutral 24.4 82.6
process and improves Agree 12.4 95
performance.
Strongly agree 4.8 100

2 Strongly disagree 12.9 209 2.46 1.09

2 Active involvement
of senior Disagree 49.3 62.2

management in Neutral 20.1 82.3

procurement Agree 14.4 96.7

strategy decisions Strongly agree 3.3 100

enhances
procurement
performance

3 Support from senior Strongly disagree 9.6 209 2.44 1.01

34
 management in Disagree 55.4 65 11
overcoming Neutral 18.7 83.7
procurement Agree 13.9 97.6
challenges leads to Strongly agree 2.4 100
improved
performance

4 Senior management's Strongly disagree 8.6 209 2.41 0.97

commitment directly Disagree 56.9 65.5
contributes to Neutral 21,5 87
enhanced Agree 11.0 98
procurement Strongly agree 1.9 100
performance

5 Strongly disagree 10.5 209 2.45 1.00

Time guidance and
feed back from Disagree 50.2 60,7 2.45

senior management Neutral 25.4 86.1

improve Agree 11.5 97.6

procurement Strongly agree 2.4 100

performance
Source: Survey (Result, 2025)

Interpretation of Findings on Senior Management Support in Procurement Performance

The table above presents respondents’ perceptions regarding the influence of senior management on procurement performance. As the
data show, responses across all five statements tend to cluster around disagreement, suggesting limited confidence in the role senior
leadership plays in enhancing procurement systems. This interpretation is supported by consistently low mean scores (ranging from 2.41
to 2.56) and moderate standard deviations (between 0.97 and 1.09), indicating overall dissatisfaction with occasional variation in
perceptions.

Statement 1 “Provision of adequate resources by senior management supports the procurement process and improves performance”: The
data indicate that a majority of respondents disagreed: 51.2% disagreed and 7.2% strongly disagreed, totaling 58.4%. Only 12.4%
agreed and 4.8% strongly agreed. A sizable 24.4% remained neutral. The mean score of 2.56, though the highest among the five
statements, still falls below the neutral midpoint, reflecting a general perception that resource provision from senior management is
inadequate. The standard deviation of 1.03 suggests moderate variability among the responses.

Statement 1 “provisions of adequate resources by senior management supports the procurement process and improve performance “ the
data indicate that a majority of respondents disagreed. 51.2% disagreed and 7.2% strongly disagreed, totaling 58.4%. only 12.4%
agreed and 4.8% strongly agreed. A sizable 24.4% remained neutral. The mean score of 2.56, though the highest among the five
statements, still falls below the neutral midpoint, reflecting a general perception that resource provision from senior managements is
inadequate. the standard deviation of 1.03 suggests moderate variability among respondents.

Statement 2 “Active involvement of senior management in procurement strategy decisions enhances procurement performance” : The
responses demonstrate that 12.9% strongly disagreed and 49.3% disagreed, making up a combined 62.2%. Only 14.4% agreed and 3.3%
strongly agreed. The mean score of 2.46 and standard deviation of 1.09 indicate that most respondents do not believe senior
management is meaningfully engaged in strategic procurement decision-making. The relatively high standard deviation further suggests
some divergent experiences across departments or sectors.

35
Statement 2 “active involvement of senior management in procurement strategy decisions enhance procurement performance” the
responses demonstrate that 12.9% strongly disagreed and 49.3% disagreed , making up a combined 62.2%. only 14.4% agreed and 3.3%
strongly agreed. The mean score of 2.46 and standard devaiation of 1.09 indicate that most of respondents do not believe senior
management is meaningfully engaged in startegic procurement decision-making. The relatively high standard deviation further suggests
some divergent experiences accros department or sectors.

Statement 3 “Support from senior management in overcoming procurement challenges leads to improved performance”: The findings
show that over 65% of respondents disagreed (55.5%) or strongly disagreed (9.6%). Only 16.3% agreed or strongly agreed. With a
mean of 2.44 and standard deviation of 1.01, the responses reflect a common perception that senior managers are not sufficiently
proactive in helping procurement teams resolve operational obstacles, such as supplier issues, bureaucratic delays, or compliance
matters.

Statement 3 “ supports from senior management in overcoming procurement challenges leads to improved performance” the finding
show that over 65% of respondents disagreed ( 55.5%) or strongly disagreed (9.6%). Only 16.3% agreed or strongly agreed. With a
mean of 2.44 and standard deviation of 1.01 , the responses reflects a common perception that senior managers are not sufficiently
proactive in helping procurement teams resolve operational obstacles , such as supplier issues, bureaucratic delays, or compliance
matters.

Statement 4 “Senior management's commitment directly contributes to enhanced procurement performance”: The analysis reveals that
respondents again leaned toward disagreement, with 56.9% disagreeing and 8.6% strongly disagreeing. While 21.5% selected “Neutral,”
only 11.0% agreed and 1.9% strongly agreed. The mean score of 2.41—the lowest of the five items—reinforces the belief that senior
management commitment is either absent or ineffective in supporting procurement functions. The low standard deviation (0.97)
suggests consistency in these perceptions across respondents.

Statement 4 “ senior managements commitment directly contributes to enhance procurement performance” the analysis reveals that
respondents again leaned toward disagreement, with 56.9% disagreeing and 8.6% srongly disagreeing . while 21.5% selected “neutral"
only 11.0% agreed and 1.9% strongly agreed . the mean score of 2.41 the lowest of the five items , reinforces the belief that senior
management commitment is either absent of ineffective in supporting procurement functions . the low standard deviation (0.97)
suggests consistency in these perceptions across respondents.

Statement 5 “Timely guidance and feedback from senior management improve procurement performance”: The results reflect that
10.5% strongly disagreed and 50.2% disagreed, totaling 60.7%. Just 11.5% agreed and 2.4% strongly agreed, while 25.4% remained
neutral. The mean of 2.45 and a standard deviation of 1.00 reflect a similarly negative view of management responsiveness and
oversight in procurement matters.

Statement 5 “ timely guidance and feedback from senior management improves procurement performance” the results reflect that 10.5%
strongly disagreed and 50.2% disagreed, totaling 60.7%. just 11.5 agreed and 2.4% strongly agreed, while 25.4% remained neutral. The
mean of 2.45 and standard deviation of 1.00 reflect a similarly negative view of management responsiveness and over sight in
procurement matters

All five indicators fall below the midpoint of 3.0, signaling respondents’ perception of limited or ineffective managerial support. The
lowest score (2.41) indicates skepticism about the genuine commitment of top management to procurement reform. Only modest
variability in standard deviations suggests a widely shared perception across institutional roles.

36
All five indicators fall below the midpoint of 3.0, signaling respondents , perception of limited or ineffective managerial support. The
lowest score (2.41) indicates skepticism about the genuine commitment of top management to procurement reform . only modest
variability in standard deviation suggests a widely shared perception across institutional roles .

Qualitative responses from FGD participants confirmed this interpretation. A project coordinator in the Roads Bureau observed,
“Management talks about procurement during audits, but is missing when support is needed to solve real-time issues.” This reactive
approach undermines strategic planning and weakens accountability structures.

qualitative responses from FGD partcipants confirmed this interpretation . a project coordinator in the roads bureau observed “
management talks about procurement during audits, but its missing when supports is needed to solve real time issues” this reactive
approach undermines strategic planning and weakens accountability structures

From a theoretical perspective, these results reflect deficiencies in Goal-Setting Theory (Locke & Latham, 1990), where unclear or
absent performance goals diminish staff motivation. Agency Theory further explains how poor oversight by principals (managers)
leaves agents (procurement staff) without the necessary support to execute their roles effectively.

Empirical parallels can be drawn from Getachew and Abera (2021), who found that limited executive oversight in Ethiopian public
institutions correlates with cost overruns and supplier disputes. Kimathi and Wambua (2023) also highlighted that managerial disinterest
contributes to fragmentation in procurement systems across Kenyan counties.

In conclusion, the findings reveal that top management in the Somali Regional State is perceived as disengaged from core procurement
functions. To enhance performance, institutional leadership must move from episodic oversight to continuous strategic engagement,
ensuring that procurement units are adequately supported, guided, and held accountable throughout the procurement cycle.

In conclusion the finding reveals that top management in the somali regional state is perceived as disengaged from core procurement
functions. To enhance performance , institutional leadership must move from episodic oversight to continuous strategic engagement,
ensuring that procurement units are adequately supported, guided, and held accountable throughout the procurement cycle.

Need assessment on procurement performance

37
Needs assessment serves as a foundational aspect of effective procurement planning by ensuring that goods, services, or works acquired
align with actual institutional requirements. A rigorous needs assessment process is intended to reduce procurement mismatches,
eliminate redundancy, and support timely, cost-effective delivery of public services. Theoretical support is found in Stakeholder Theory
(Freeman, 1984), which argues that involving end-users and beneficiaries in planning processes enhances relevance and accountability.
From an Agency Theory lens, needs assessments also mitigate asymmetries in information between principals and agents, enabling
better decision-making.

To explore the implementation and effectiveness of needs assessment in the Somali Regional State, five indicators were assessed,
including the capture of stakeholder inputs, specification accuracy, procedural rigor, prioritization of needs, and the practice of regular
updates.

OBJECTIVE [Link] evaluate the influence of needs assessment on public procurement performance in the Somali Regional State
Table 4.6
RESPONSES ON need assessment

Questionnaire Scale Percent Cumulative percent N MEA Std

N dev

1 Accurate capture of Strongly disagree 7.2 7.2 209 2.38 1.04

stakeholder Disagree 61.2 68.4
requirements through Neutral 20.1 88.5
needs assessment Agree 9.1 97.6
enhances procurement Strongly agree 2.4 100
performance

2 Effective needs Strongly disagree 10,5 209 2.35 1,06

assessment ensures Disagree 59.3 69.8
appropriate quantity
and quality of Neutral 18.2 88
goods/services, Agree 9.1 97.1
improving procurement
performance. Strongly agree 2.9 100

.2
3 Conducting thorough Strongly disagree 9.6 18.6 209 2.30 0.98
needs assessments Disagree 63.2 72.8
prior to procurement Neutral 16.3 89.1
decisions enhances Agree 9.6 98.7
performance Strongly agree 1.4 100
outcomes.

38
 4 Evaluating procurement Strongly disagree 6.7 1.0 209 2.31 0.93
priorities through needs Disagree 66.5 73.2
assessment leads to
better performance. Neutral 17.7 90.9
Agree 7.2 98.1
Strongly agree 1.9 100

5 Regular updates to Strongly disagree 8.6 12.4 209 2.27 0.91

needs assessments Disagree 64.6 73.2
ensure procurement
performance remains Neutral 19.6 92.8
aligned with current Agree 5.3 98.1
requirements.
Strongly agree 1.9 100

Source: Survey (Result, 2025)

interpretation of Findings on Needs Assessment and Procurement Performance

The table above reflects respondents’ perceptions of how needs assessment practices influence procurement performance in the
surveyed bureaus. As the above results show, responses were overwhelmingly concentrated in the "Disagree" and "Strongly Disagree"
categories across all five statements. The consistently low mean scores (ranging from 2.27 to 2.38) and standard deviations between
0.91 and 1.06 indicate a broadly shared view that current needs assessment processes are ineffective, underutilized, or poorly executed.
Each statement is analyzed below.

Statement 1. “Accurate capture of stakeholder requirements through needs assessment enhances procurement performance”: The data
indicate that a total of 68.4% of respondents either disagreed (61.2%) or strongly disagreed (7.2%). Only 11.5% (9.1% agree and 2.4%
strongly agree) expressed positive views, while 20.1% remained neutral. The mean score of 2.38 and standard deviation of 1.04 suggest
that the majority of respondents view stakeholder input as insufficiently captured, resulting in procurement processes that are misaligned
with actual demand.

Statement 1 “ accurate capture of stakeholder a requirements through needs assessment enhance procurement performance” the data
indicate that a total of 68.4% of respondents either disagreed (61.2%) or strongly disagreed(7.2%). Only 11.5%(9.1% agree and 2.4%
Strongly agree) expressed positive views while 20.1% remained neutral. The mean score of 2.38 and standard deviation of 1.04 suggest
that the majority of respondents view of stakeholder input as insufficiently captured , resulting in procurement process that misaligned
with actual demand

Statement 2. “Effective needs assessment ensures appropriate quantity and quality of goods/services, improving procurement
performance”: Survey responses reveal that 59.3% disagreed and 10.5% strongly disagreed, totaling 69.8% disapproval. The agreement
level remained low at 12% (9.1% agree and 2.9% strongly agree), with 18.2% neutral. The mean of 2.35 and standard deviation of 1.06
further reinforce that most respondents feel needs assessment is not ensuring the correct specifications of goods and services, likely
resulting in procurement inefficiencies, waste, or mismatch.

statement 2 . “ effective needs assessment ensures appropriate quantity and quality of goods/services , improving procurement
performance” survey responses reveal that 59.3% disagreed and 10.5% strongly disagreed, totaling 69.8% disapproval. The agreement
level remained low at 12% ( 9.1% agree and 2.9% strongly agree) with 18.2% neutral . the mean of 2.35 and standard deviation of 1.06
further reinforce that most respondents feel needs assessment is not ensuring the correct specification of goods and services, likely
resulting in procurement inefficiencies, waste or mismatch.

39
Statement 3. “Conducting thorough needs assessments prior to procurement decisions enhances performance outcomes”: This statement
recorded the highest rate of disagreement, with 63.2% disagreeing and 9.6% strongly disagreeing (72.8% total). Only 11% showed
agreement. The mean score of 2.30 and a slightly lower standard deviation (0.98) indicate widespread concern that needs assessments
are either not being conducted at all or are not sufficiently rigorous to improve procurement decision-making.

Statement 3 .” conducting through needs assessment prior to procurement decisions enhances performances outcomes” this statement
recorded the highest rate of disagreement , with 63.2% disagreeing and 9.6% strongly disagreeing ( 72.8% total). Only 11% showed
agreement . the mean score of 2.30 and slightly lower standard deviation (0.98) indicate widespread concern that needs assessment are
either not being conducted at all or are not sufficiently rigorous to improve procurement decision making

Statement 4. “Evaluating procurement priorities through needs assessment leads to better performance” : The responses reflect
consistently high disagreement, with 66.5% disagreeing and 6.7% strongly disagreeing. Only 9.1% of respondents (7.2% agree and
1.9% strongly agree) expressed a positive view. The mean of 2.31 and standard deviation of 0.93 demonstrate not only a low overall
rating but also relatively consistent disapproval, suggesting a systemic weakness in aligning procurement with evolving institutional
priorities.

Statement 4 “ evaluating procurement priorities through needs assessment leads to better performance “ the responses reflect
consistently high disagreement , with 66.5% disagreeing and 6.7% strongly disagreeing. Only 9.1% of respondents ( 7.2% agree and
1.9% strongly agree ) expressed a positive view. The mean of 2.31 and standard deviation of 0.93 demonstrate not only a low overall
rating but also relatively consistent disapproval, suggesting a systemic weakness in aligning procurement with evolving institutional
priorities .

Statement 5. “Regular updates to needs assessments ensure procurement performance remains aligned with current requirements”:
Results demonstrate that 64.6% disagreed and 8.6% strongly disagreed, for a total of 73.2% expressing negative views. Only 7.2%
(5.3% agree and 1.9% strongly agree) endorsed the statement, with a neutral rate of 19.6%. The mean of 2.27—the lowest among all
statements—and standard deviation of 0.91 reflect both low confidence and high consensus that needs assessments are not being
reviewed or updated regularly.

Statement 5. “ regular updates to needs assesments ensure procurement performance remains aligned with current requirement” results
demonstrate that 64.6% disagreed and 8.6% strongly disagreed, for total of 73.2% expressing negative views. Only 7.2% (5.3% agree
and 1.9% strongly agree ) endorsed the statement, with neutral rate of 19.6%. the mean of 2.27 the lowest among all statement and
standard deviation of 0.91 reflect both low confidence and high consensus that needs assessment are not being rewiewed or updated
regularly ,

The results reflect broad dissatisfaction across all items with mean scores consistently falling below the neutral midpoint of 3.0. The
lowest-rated item (2.27) highlights the absence of mechanisms to regularly update needs assessments, suggesting a static approach in a
dynamic operating environment. The modest standard deviations suggest a shared institutional perception, indicating systemic rather
than isolated procedural weaknesses.

The result reflects broad dissatisfaction across all items with mean scores consistently failing below the neutral midpoint of 3.0. the
lowest rated item( 2.27) highlights the absence of mechanisms to regularly update needs assessments, suggesting approach in a
dynamic operating environment. The modest standard deviations suggest a shared institutional perception , indicating systemic rather
than isolated procedural weaknesses.

These quantitative results are supported by qualitative evidence. Focus group participants commonly cited top-down planning processes
as a barrier to effective needs assessment. One procurement officer remarked, "We often procure items that don't match our

40
department's needs—decisions are made without consulting us." Such exclusion of frontline staff reflects weak participatory planning
and contributes to inefficient procurement outcomes.

These quantative results are supported by qualitative evidence. Focus group discusions commonly cited top down planning processes as
a barrier to effective needs assessment. On procurement officer remarked “ we often procure items that don,t match our department
needs decisions are made without consulting us”

This scenario aligns with empirical studies from Ethiopia and Kenya. Bekele and Mulugeta (2021) found that federal ministries in
Ethiopia frequently bypass needs assessments due to time pressures, resulting in misaligned procurement. Similarly, Omondi (2019)
noted that only 40% of Kenyan counties conduct systematic annual needs assessments, leading to poor inventory control and redundant
procurement.

This scnerio aligns with empirical studies from Ethiopia and kenya Bekele and Mulugeta (2021) found that federal ministries in
Ethiopia frequently bypass needs assessments due to time pressure , resulting in misaligned procurement. Similarly , Omondi (2019)
noted that only 40% of Kenyan counties conduct systematic annual needs assessments , leading to poor inventory control and redundant
procurement .

Stakeholder Theory suggests that inclusive assessments incorporating both technical and administrative actors would improve relevance
and execution. In its absence, procurement teams are forced to operate reactively, compromising the strategic value of procurement
planning. Additionally, Agency Theory predicts inefficiencies where decision-makers exclude agents with firsthand knowledge of
operational requirements.

Stakeholder theory suggests that inclusive assessments incorporating both technical and admistrative actors would improve relevance
and execution . in its absence , procurement teams are forced to operate reactively, compromising the strategic value of procurement
planning . Additionally, Agency theory predicts in efficiencies where decision makers exclude agents with firsthand knowledge of
operational requirement .

In conclusion, the findings underscore the inadequacy of needs assessment practices in the Somali Regional State. There is insufficient
attention to stakeholder input, technical validation, and procedural rigor. Rectifying this gap requires the institutionalization of
participatory planning frameworks, improved communication between planning and execution units, and periodic reviews to align
procurement with evolving service delivery goals.

in Conclusion , the findings underscore the inadequacy of needs assessment practices in the Somali regional state . there is insufficient
attention to stakeholder input, technical validation, and procedural rigor, rectifying this gab requires the institutionalization of
participatory planning frameworks, improved communication between planning and execution units , and periodic reviews to align
procurement with evolving service delivery goals

BUDGET ESTIMATION AND PROCUREMENT PERFORMANCE

41
Budget estimation is a critical dimension of procurement planning, as it determines the financial viability, scope, and timing of
procurement activities. Effective budgeting supports fiscal discipline, minimizes cost overruns, and enables the timely acquisition of
goods and services. According to the World Bank (2021) and the OECD (2018), robust budgeting frameworks are central to
transparency and accountability in public procurement. From a theoretical perspective, Agency Theory emphasizes the role of budget
controls in mitigating opportunistic behavior by procurement agents, while Goal-Setting Theory suggests that realistic and measurable
financial targets enhance performance.

This section presents respondents’ perceptions of the adequacy and impact of current budgeting practices in the Somali Regional State,
focusing on five key areas: realism of estimates, use of historical data, budget monitoring, flexibility, and compliance with financial
ceilings.

OBJECTIVE 4 To analyze the effect of budget estimation on the effectiveness of public procurement performance in the
Somali Regional State.

4.7

RESPONSES ON budget estimation

questions Scale PERCEN CUMULATIVE N MEA Std .de
no T N vt

1 Realistic and Strongly disagree 11.0 209 2.48 1.12

thorough budget Disagree 51.7 62.7
estimates contribute Neutral 20.6 83.3
to improved Agree 11.5 94.8
procurement Strongly agree 5.2 100
performance

2 Incorporating past Strongly disagree 12.4 209 2.46 1.15

performance reviews Disagree 49.1 61.5
into budgeting
enhances future
procurement
performance.
Neutral 21.5 83
Agree 12.4 95.4
Strongly agree 4.6 100

3 Strongly disagree 13.0 209 2.43 1.14

Close monitoring of
42
 Disagree 50.2 63.2
procurement budgets
ensures alignment Neutral 20.1 83.3

with expenditures, Agree 12.0 95.3

improving Strongly agree 4.8 100

performance.

4 Flexible budget Strongly disagree 11.5 209 2.45 1.13

estimation processes Disagree 52.3 63.8
accommodate Neutral 19.6 83.4
changes, leading to Agree 11.5 94.9
better procurement Strongly agree 5.1 100
performance

5 Effective budgeting Strongly disagree 10.5 10.5 209 2.50 1.11

ensures procurement Disagree 48.6 59.1
projects stay within Neutral 22.0 81.1
financial limits, Agree 14.4 95.5
enhancing Strongly agree 4.3 100

Source: Survey (Result, 2025)

Interpretation of Findings on Budget Estimation and Procurement Performance

The data presented above explore respondents’ perceptions regarding the effectiveness of budget estimation practices in enhancing
procurement performance. As the above shows, the responses were heavily skewed toward disagreement across all five items, with
mean values ranging from 2.43 to 2.50, signaling generally negative perceptions of current budget planning and control mechanisms.
The standard deviations, ranging from 1.11 to 1.15, suggest moderate variability in opinions, yet consistent central tendencies around
disagreement.

Statement 1. “The development of realistic and evidence-based budget estimates significantly enhances procurement performance by
reducing cost overruns and ensuring financial discipline”: The results indicate that a total of 62.7% of respondents disagreed (11.0%
strongly disagreed, 51.7% disagreed). Only 16.7% agreed or strongly agreed, and 20.6% remained neutral. The mean of 2.48 and
standard deviation of 1.12 reflect a dominant belief that existing budget estimation practices are not sufficiently evidence-based or
realistic, potentially leading to cost overruns and weak financial control.

Statement 1. “ the development of realistic and evidence based budget estimates a significantly enhances procurement performance by
reducing cos overrun and ensuirng financial discipline” the results indicates that a total of 62.7% of respondents disagreed (11.0%
strongly disagreed, 51.7% disagreed) . only 16.7% agreed or strongly agreed, and 20.6% remained neutral. The mean of 2.48 and
standard deviation of 1.12 reflect dominant belief that existing budget estimation practices are not sufficiently evidence based or
realistic ,potentially leading to cost overruns and weak financial control.

Statement 2. “Integrating performance reviews and historical data into budget planning strengthens the accuracy and impact of future
procurement decisions”: The data reveal that 61.5% expressed disagreement (12.4% strongly and 49.1% disagreed), while just 17%
agreed or strongly agreed. The neutral share was 21.5%. The mean score of 2.46 with a standard deviation of 1.15 suggests that
performance data and lessons from past procurements are not being systematically used to inform future planning, indicating a gap in
institutional learning mechanisms.

43
Statement 2. “ integrating performance review and historical data into budget planning strengthens the accuracy and impact of future
procuremtn decisions” the data reveals that 61.5% expressed disagreement (12.4% strongly disagreed and 49.1% disagreed) ,while just
17% agreed and strongly agreed. The neutral share was 21.5%. the mean score of 2.46 with standard deviation of 1.15 suggests that
performance data and lessons from the past procurement are not beign systematically used to inform future planning, indicating a gab in
institutional learning mechanisms.

Statement 3. “Regular monitoring and reconciliation of budgeted versus actual procurement expenditures improves cost control and
procurement efficiency”: Findings show that 63.2% disagreed (13.0% strongly and 50.2% disagreed), with only 16.8% showing
agreement. The neutral position (20.1%) again signals uncertainty or limited exposure to effective reconciliation practices. The mean of
2.43 is the lowest among all items, and a standard deviation of 1.14 reinforces the consistency of negative perceptions. These findings
imply that budget tracking and variance analysis practices are either absent or not yielding effective cost controls in procurement
projects.

Statement 3 . “ regular monitoring and reconciliation of budget versus actual procurement expenditures improves cost control and
procurement efficiency” finding show that 63.2% disagreed ( 13.0 strongly agree and 50.2 disagreed). with only 16.8% showing
agreement the neutral positions ( 20.1%) again signals uncertainty or limited exposure of effective reconciliation practices the mean of
2.43 is the lowest among all items , and standard deviation of 1.14 reinforces the consistency of negative perceptions . these findings
imply that budget tracking and variance analaysis practices are either absent or not yielding effective costs controls in procurement
projects

Statement 4. “Flexible budget estimation practices that allow timely adjustments to dynamic procurement needs lead to improved
overall procurement outcomes”: Survey responses show that 63.8% disagreed (11.5% strongly, 52.3% disagreed), while only 16.6%
agreed or strongly agreed. The mean of 2.45 and standard deviation of 1.13 show that respondents view current budget frameworks as
rigid and poorly responsive to evolving procurement needs. This inflexibility may delay procurement execution or lead to misaligned
expenditures when adjustments are needed.

Statement 4 “ flexible budget estimation practices that allow timely adjustment to dynamic procurement needs lead to improved overall
procurement outcomes” survey responses shows that 63.8% disagreed ( 11.5% strongly disagreed and 52.3% disagreed) ,while only
16.6% agreed or srongly agreed. The mean of 2.45 and standard deviation of 1.13 show that the respondents view current budget
frameworks as rigid and poorly responsive to evolving procurement needs, the inflexibility may dealy procurement execution or lead to
misaligned expenditures when adjustment are needed

Statement 5. “Effective budget estimation processes help procurement projects remain within approved financial ceilings, thereby
promoting accountability and planning efficiency”: The analysis indicates that 59.1% disagreed (10.5% strongly and 48.6% disagreed).
While this statement received the highest mean (2.50) among the five, it still reflects a general view that budgeting is not effectively
controlling project spending. The standard deviation of 1.11 also implies a relatively narrow spread of responses.

statement 5 “ effective budget estimation process help procurement procjects reami within approval financial ceilings, thereby
promoting accountability and planning efficiency “ the anlysis indicates that 59.1% disagreed ( 10.5 strongly agreed and 48.6 disgareed)
while this statement received the highest mean 2.50 among the five it still reflects a general review that budgeting is not effectively
controlling project spending. The standar deviation of 1.11 also implies a relatively narrow spread of responses

The mean values for all items fall below the neutral benchmark of 3.0, indicating general dissatisfaction among respondents. The item
with the lowest mean score (2.43) pertains to budget monitoring and reconciliation, suggesting significant deficiencies in tracking and
oversight mechanisms. Although the highest mean score (2.50) relates to adherence to financial ceilings, it still reflects a negative
perception, implying that budget overruns or mid-implementation adjustments are common.

44
The mean values for all items fall below the neutral becnchmark of 3.0, indicating a general dissatisfaction among respondents. The
item with the lowest mean score 2.43 pertains to budget monitoring and reconciliation, suggesting significan deficiencies in tracking
and oversight mechanisms. Although the highes mean score 2.5 relates to adherences to financial ceiling, it still reflects a negative
perceptions, implying budget overruns or mid-implementation adjustment are common.

These quantitative findings are corroborated by qualitative data. One finance officer explained, "Budgets are often copied from the
previous year without reviewing market prices or updated project scopes. This leads to delays and unplanned adjustments." Another
respondent highlighted weak post-expenditure audits and a lack of accountability in tracking financial performance.

The qauntative finding are corroborated by qualitative data one finance officer explained , “ budgets are often copied from the previous
year with out reviewing market prices or updated project scopes . this leads to delays and unplanned adjustments” another respondent
highlighted weak post expenditure audits and lack of accountability in tracking financial performance.

Empirical studies confirm these concerns. Bekele and Mulugeta (2021) found that Ethiopian public universities often exceed their
procurement budgets due to unrealistic projections and lack of historical data usage. In Kenya, Karanja and Kamau (2014) reported that
inflexible budgeting led to increased reliance on emergency procurement, often at inflated costs.

Empirical studies confirm these concerns, Bekele and Mulugeta (2021) found that Ethiopian public universities often exceed their
procurement budgets due to unrealistic projections and lack of historical data usage. In Kenya, Karanja and Kamau (2014) reported that
inflexible budgeting led to increased reliance on emergency procurement, often inflated costs.

The findings suggest that the Somali Regional State lacks dynamic and data-driven budgeting mechanisms, leading to inefficiencies in
procurement execution. Theoretical interpretations from Goal-Setting Theory indicate that vague or unrealistic budgets undermine
planning motivation and implementation accuracy. Transaction Cost Economics further explains how budget misalignment creates the
need for contract renegotiations, increasing administrative overhead and procurement delays.

The findings suggest that somali regional state lacks daynamic and data driven budgeting mechanisms, leading to inefficiencies in
procurement execution. Theoretical interpretation from goal-setting theory indicate that vague or unrealistic budgets undermine
planning motivation and implementation accuracy. Transaction cost economic further explains how budget misalignment creates the
need for contract renegotiations, increasing administrative overhead and procurement delays.

In conclusion, budgeting practices in the Somali Regional State are perceived as rigid, outdated, and disconnected from actual
procurement realities. Reform is required to institutionalize market-responsive cost estimation, integrate performance reviews into
planning, and establish robust monitoring tools. These changes are necessary to ensure fiscal accountability, operational flexibility, and
value-for-money in public procurement systems.

In conclusion, budgeting practices in the somali regional state perceived as rigid, outdated . and disconnected from actual procurement
realities. Reform is required to institutionalize market-responsive cost estimation . integrate perforamcne review into planning, and
extablishing robust monitoring tools . these changes are necessary to ensure fiscal accountablility , operational flexiblitiy, and value for
money in public procurement systems.

45
Public Procurement Performance

Procurement performance is a multidimensional construct used to evaluate the effectiveness, efficiency, and value-for-money in public
procurement systems. This study adopts the 'Five Rights' framework—procuring the right quality, quantity, cost, time, and place—
supplemented by a composite performance measure. These indicators provide insight into operational success and signal the level of
institutional maturity in procurement governance (CIPS, 2016; Thai, 2001).

Respondents were asked to rate their experiences with procurement outcomes based on these dimensions. Their responses offer a direct
assessment of how well procurement planning translates into tangible performance.

Table 4.8

Responses of procurement performance

questions Scale PERCEN CUMULATIVE N MEA Std .de

no T N vt

1 RIGH QUALITY Strongly disagree 20.0 20 209 2.15 0.96

Disagree 60.0 80 0
Neutral 10.0 90
Agree 5.0 95
Strongly agree 5.0 100

2 RIGHT QUANTITY Strongly disagree 18.0 18 209 2.28 1.06

Disagree 54.0 72
Neutral 14.0 86
Agree 10.0 96
Strongly agree 4.0 100

3 Strongly disagree 25.0 25 209 2.25 1,09

RIGHT COST
Disagree 45.0 70 1
Neutral 15.0 85
Agree 10.0 95
Strongly agree 5.0 100

4 RIGHT PLACE Strongly disagree 10 209 2.75 0.99

10.0
Disagree 30.0 40
Neutral 40.0 80
Agree 15.0 95
Strongly agree 5.0 100
46
 5 PROCUREMENT Strongly disagree 20 20 209 2.22 0,98
EFFIECIENCY Disagree 55.0 75 2 0
Neutral 15.0 90
Agree 5.0 95
Strongly agree 5.0 100
Source: Survey Result (2025)

Interpretation of Procurement Performance Indicators

As the above table shows, the descriptive statistics provide a clear snapshot of respondent perceptions regarding the procurement
performance of the selected public institutions, specifically focusing on five key dimensions: right quality, right quantity, right cost,
right place, and overall procurement efficiency. The responses were gathered from a total of 209 participants, and the results
overwhelmingly suggest systemic dissatisfaction with procurement practices, as reflected in both the low mean scores and the high
levels of disagreement recorded across all indicators.

1. Procurement with the Right Quality

As the above table shows, 80.0% of respondents expressed dissatisfaction with the quality of procured goods and services—20.0%
(n=42) strongly disagreed, and 60.0% (n=125) disagreed with the statement that procurement was conducted with the right quality. Only
a combined 10.0% (n=20) expressed agreement, split evenly between "agree" and "strongly agree," while the remaining 10.0% (n=21)
remained neutral. The mean score was 2.15, and the standard deviation was 0.96, both indicating that a significant portion of the
participants experienced persistent quality concerns. These findings suggest insufficient enforcement of technical specifications, lack of
supplier performance monitoring, and weak quality assurance mechanisms throughout the procurement process.

As the above tables show 80.0% of respondents expressed dissatisfaction with the quality of procured goods and services 20.0&(n=42)
strongly disagreed and 60.0% (n=125) disagreed with statements that procurement was conducted with the right quality . only a
combined 10.0%(n=20) expressed agreement ,split evenly between agree and strongly agree while the remaining 10.0%(n=21) remained
neutral the mean score was 2.15 and standard deviation was 0.96, both indicating that a significant portion of the parcticipants
experienced persistent quality concerns. These finding suggest that insufficient enforcement of technical specification, lack of supplier
performance monitoring, and weak quality assurance mechanism throughout the procurement process

2. Procurement with the Right Quantity

The results also reveal that a total of 72.0% of respondents viewed the procurement process as failing to deliver the correct quantity of
goods and services, with 18.0% (n=38) selecting "strongly disagree" and 54.0% (n=113) "disagree." Only 14.0% (n=29) were neutral,
while 10.0% (n=21) and 4.0% (n=8) agreed and strongly agreed, respectively. The mean score of 2.28 and the standard deviation of 1.06
further support this widespread disapproval. The relatively high variability in responses reflects uneven procurement planning across
departments, likely stemming from poor demand forecasting, inadequate needs assessment, and ineffective internal communication
between planning and procurement units.

The results also reveals that atotal pf 72.0% of respondents viewed the procurement process as failing to deliver the correct quantity of
goods and services , with 18.0&(n=38) strongly disagree and 54.0%(n=113) disagree only 14.0(n=29) were neutral, while 10.0(n=21)
and 4.0%(n=8) agreed and strongly agreed , respectively .the mean score of 2.28 and standard deviation of 1.06 further supports this
widespread disapproval, the relatively high variability in responses reflects uneven procurement planning across departments , likely

47
stemming from poor demand forecasting , inadequate needs assessment, and in effective internal communication between planning and
procurement units .

3. Procurement at the Right Cost

The findings on the cost dimension were similarly critical. A full 70.0% of respondents reported dissatisfaction—25.0% (n=52) strongly
disagreed, and 45.0% (n=94) disagreed that procurement was carried out at the right cost. The neutral responses stood at 15.0% (n=31),
while only 10.0% (n=21) agreed and 5.0% (n=10) strongly agreed. The mean score was 2.25, with a standard deviation of 1.09. This
reflects widespread concerns about inflated pricing, lack of market research, and possible inefficiencies in the bid evaluation process.
The dispersion of scores also signals inconsistent cost performance, perhaps indicating differences in procurement competence or
oversight between entities.

The finding on cost dimension were similarly critical. A full 70.0% of respondents reported dissatisfaction 25%(n=52) strongly
disagreed and 45.0% (n=94) disagreed that procurement was carried out a the right cost. The neutral responses stood at 15.0% (n=31),
while only 10.0%(n=21) agreed and 5.0%(n= 10) strongly agreed. The mean score was 2.25 with standard deviation of 1.09. this reflects
widespread concerns about inflated pricing, lack of market research, and possible inefficiencies in the bid evaluation process. The
dispersion of scores also signals inconsistent cost performance, perhaps indicating differecnces in procurement competence oversight
between entities

4. Procurement to the Right Place

Compared to other dimensions, the perception of procurement being delivered to the right place received more moderate responses.
While 40.0% (n=84) disagreed—comprising 10.0% (n=21) strongly disagreeing and 30.0% (n=63) disagreeing—a significant 40.0%
(n=84) were neutral. Positive agreement totaled 20.0%, with 15.0% (n=31) agreeing and 5.0% (n=10) strongly agreeing. The mean
score of 2.75 and standard deviation of 0.99 suggest a slightly better performance relative to other dimensions, possibly indicating more
effective logistical operations. However, the large neutral response implies persistent inconsistencies or uncertainty regarding delivery
timeliness and accuracy across the bureaus.

Compared to the other dimensions , the perception of procurement beign delivered to the right place recived more moderate responses
while 40.0% (n=84) disagreed comprising 10.0%( n=21) strongly disagreeing and 30.0%(n=63) disagreeing asignificant 40.0%(n=84)
Were neutral. Positive agreement totaled 20.0% with 15.%(n=31) agreeing and 5.0%(n=10) strongly agreeing. The mean score of 2.75
and standard deviation of 0.99 suggest a slightly better performance relative to other dimensions, possibly indicating more effective
logistical operations. However, the large neutral responses implies persistent inconsistencies or uncertainty regarding delivery timeliness
and accuracy across bureaus.

5. Overall Procurement Efficiency

The efficiency of the procurement system as a whole was judged even more harshly. According to the table, 75.0% of respondents
disagreed that the system is efficient—20.0% (n=42) strongly disagreed and 55.0% (n=115) disagreed. Only 10.0% of respondents—
5.0% (n=10) each for "agree" and "strongly agree"—expressed satisfaction, while 15.0% (n=31) remained neutral. The mean score was
2.22, and the standard deviation stood at 0.98. These results suggest a convergence of deficiencies across all prior dimensions,
collectively eroding trust in procurement outcomes. Such inefficiency likely stems from weak institutional capacity, a lack of strategic
procurement planning, and minimal accountability in implementation.

The efficiency of the procurement system as a whole was judged even more harshly. According to the table. 75.0% of respondents
disagreed that the system is efficient 20% (n=42) strongly disagreed and 55.0% (n=115) disagreed. Only 10.0% of respondents ,5.0%
(n=10) each for agree and disagree expressed satisfaction while 15.0 % (n=31) remained neutral . the mean score was 2.22 and standard
deviation stood at 0.98. these results suggests a convergence of deficiencies across all prior dimensions, collectively eroding trust in
procurement outcomes. Such inefficiency likely stems form weak institutional capacity, a lack of strategic procurement planning and
minimal accountability in implementation.

The results show consistently low mean values, indicating pervasive dissatisfaction across all procurement performance dimensions.
The lowest score (2.15) pertains to the procurement of goods and services at the right quality, reflecting inadequate enforcement of

48
technical standards, weak supplier monitoring, and limited post-award evaluation. Similarly, performance on 'right quantity' and 'right
cost' are rated poorly, with respondents citing frequent mismatches between procured items and actual needs, as well as cost escalations
due to poor budgeting and planning.

The results shows consistently low mean values, indicating pervasive dissatisfaction across all procurement performance dimensions.
The lowest score (2.15) pertains to the procurement of goods and services at the right quality, reflecting inadequate enforcement of
technical standard ,weak supplier monitoring, and limited post-award evaluation. Similarly, performance on right quantity and right cost
are rated poorly with respondents citing frequent mismatches between procured items and actual needs, as well as cost escalation due to
poor budget planning

The highest score (2.75) is associated with 'right place'—suggesting relatively better logistics or warehousing practices, although 40% of
respondents still indicated neutral perceptions, and another 40% expressed disagreement, hinting at inconsistency in delivery reliability
across departments. The overall efficiency score (2.22) confirms the composite underperformance of procurement systems.

The highest scor of 2.75 is associated with right place suggesting relatively better logistics or warehousing practices , although 40% of
respondents still indicated neutral perception, and other 40% expressed disagreement , hinting at inconsistency in delivery reliability
across departments . the over all efficiency score 2.22 confirms the composite underperformance of procurement systems.

Qualitative data underscore these concerns. One respondent noted, "We often receive deliveries late or incomplete. There is no feedback
mechanism or quality inspection until there is a complaint." Another added, "Sometimes suppliers deliver materials that do not meet the
specifications, but they still get paid."

Qualitative data underscore these concerns. One respondents noted “ we often receive deliveries late or incomplete . there is no feedback
mechanism or quality inspection until there is a complaint “ another added “ sometimes suppliers deliver materials that do not meet the
specifications, but they still get paid”

These findings are consistent with literature from similar settings. Basheka (2008) found that poor quality assurance frameworks in
Uganda led to inefficiencies and waste. Eyaa and Oluka (2011) similarly demonstrated that the introduction of post-award performance
reviews in Kenyan counties significantly improved delivery outcomes.

These findings are consistent with literature from similar setting. Basheka (2008) found that poor quality assurance frameworks in
uganda let to inefficiencies and waste. Eyaa and Oluka (2011) similarly demonstrated that the introduction of post- award performance
reviews in Kenyan counties significantly improved delivery outcomes.

Theoretically, Total Quality Management (TQM) provides a useful lens, suggesting that continuous process improvement and
institutional commitment are necessary for procurement performance excellence. Agency Theory also remains relevant, highlighting the
lack of enforcement and oversight mechanisms that allow agents (procurement staff and suppliers) to diverge from agreed performance
standards.

Theoretically, total quality management (TQM) provides a useful lens. Suggesting that continuous process improvement and
institutional commitment are necessary for procurement performance excellence. Agency theory also remains relevant, highlighting the
lack of enforcement and oversight mechanism that allows agents (procurement staff and suppliers) to diverge from agreed performance
standards

49
In summary, procurement performance in the Somali Regional State is perceived as suboptimal across all evaluated dimensions. The
consistent gap between planning and implementation indicates that improvements in procurement strategy, monitoring systems, and
accountability frameworks are urgently needed to meet service delivery objectives and stakeholder expectations.

In summary, procurement performance in the somali regional state is perceived as suboptimal across all evaluated dimensions the
consistent gab between planning and implementation indicates that improvement in procurement strategy , monitoring systems, and
accountability frameworks are urgently needed to meet service delivery objectives and stakeholder expectations.

Inferential statistics
This section presents the inferential statistical analysis undertaken to examine the relationships between the four core dimensions of
procurement planning—supplier selection, top management support, needs assessment, and budget estimation—and procurement
performance in the Somali Regional State. Employing both Pearson’s correlation coefficient and multiple linear regression analysis, the
study assesses the direction, strength, and statistical significance of these relationships. Moreover, the underlying assumptions of
multiple regression were tested to ensure the robustness and validity of the analytical outcomes.

4.5.1 Pearson Correlation Analysis

Table 4.7: Pearson Correlation Matrix (n = 209)

Variable 1 2 3 4 5

1. Procurement Performance 1.000 0.598** 0.513** 0.557** 0.602**

2. Supplier Selection 0.598** 1.000 0.467** 0.445** 0.498**

3. Top Management Support 0.513** 0.467** 1.000 0.421** 0.476**

4. Needs Assessment 0.557** 0.445** 0.421** 1.000 0.458**

5. Budget Estimation 0.602** 0.498** 0.476** 0.458** 1.000

Note: p < 0.01 (two-tailed).

The Pearson correlation analysis reveals statistically significant and positive associations between all four independent variables and
procurement performance at the 1% significance level (p < 0.01). Among the variables, budget estimation exhibits the strongest linear
association with procurement performance (r = 0.602), closely followed by supplier selection (r = 0.598). These results suggest that
more robust and evidence-based budgeting processes, as well as transparent and merit-driven supplier evaluation mechanisms, are
closely tied to improved procurement outcomes.

Needs assessment also demonstrates a significant positive correlation (r = 0.557), indicating that aligning procurement with actual
institutional needs enhances effectiveness. Similarly, top management support is positively correlated with performance (r = 0.513),
suggesting that when leadership provides strategic direction, resource allocation, and oversight, procurement operations are more likely
to achieve intended outcomes.

The relatively strong intercorrelations among the independent variables themselves further highlight the interconnected nature of
procurement planning dimensions. These findings align with theoretical expectations from Agency Theory, which underscores the
importance of clear planning, managerial oversight, and aligned incentives in improving agent performance, and with Stakeholder
Theory, which advocates for demand-driven, participatory planning to achieve public value.

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4.5.2 Multiple Regression Analysis

4.5.3 Assumption Testing for Multiple Linear Regression

Prior to interpreting the estimates derived from the multiple linear regression model, it is imperative to examine whether the
foundational statistical assumptions underpinning the model have been adequately satisfied. The validity of inference in multiple linear
regression is contingent upon the fulfillment of several key assumptions: linearity, normality of residuals, homoscedasticity, absence of
multicollinearity, and independence of errors. A failure to meet these assumptions may compromise the reliability, generalizability, and
interpretive value of the regression results. Consequently, a systematic assessment was conducted using both visual diagnostics and
formal statistical tests to ensure the robustness of the model and the defensibility of policy recommendations derived therefrom.

Linearity Assumption
The linearity assumption posits that there exists a linear relationship between the dependent variable and each independent variable. To
evaluate this, scatterplots of the dependent variable (procurement performance) against each predictor variable were examined,
alongside a plot of standardized residuals against predicted values. These plots revealed no pronounced curvature or systematic
deviations from linearity. The observed linear patterns provide empirical support for the appropriateness of a linear functional form in
modeling the relationship between procurement planning dimensions and procurement performance. Hence, the assumption of linearity
is considered reasonably satisfied.

Normality of Residuals
The assumption of normally distributed residuals is critical for the validity of t-tests and F-tests used to assess the statistical significance
of model parameters. This assumption was examined through both graphical and statistical means. A histogram of standardized
residuals displayed an approximately symmetric, bell-shaped curve, and the Normal Probability Plot (P–P Plot) demonstrated that
residuals clustered closely along the 45-degree reference line, suggesting normality. Additionally, the Shapiro-Wilk test was conducted,
yielding a p-value greater than the conventional alpha level of 0.05. The non-significant result confirms that the null hypothesis of
normally distributed residuals cannot be rejected. Taken together, these diagnostics affirm the satisfaction of the normality assumption
and enhance confidence in the inferential robustness of the regression estimates.

Homoscedasticity (Constant Variance of Residuals)

Homoscedasticity implies that the residuals exhibit constant variance across all levels of the predicted values. This assumption was
tested through a scatterplot of standardized residuals versus predicted values. The visual inspection revealed a random dispersion of
residuals without discernible patterns, funnels, or clustering, which is consistent with the homoscedasticity assumption. To substantiate
this further, the Breusch–Pagan and Cook–Weisberg tests for heteroscedasticity were performed. The resulting chi-square statistic was
not statistically significant (p > 0.05), indicating that the null hypothesis of homoscedasticity could not be rejected. Therefore, the model
satisfies the constant variance requirement, thereby ensuring unbiased estimation of standard errors and valid significance testing.

51
Multicollinearity
To assess multicollinearity—i.e., the extent to which independent variables are linearly related—Variance Inflation Factors (VIFs) and
Tolerance values were computed. All VIF values were well below the critical threshold of 10, ranging between 1.4 and 2.1, while
Tolerance values exceeded the recommended minimum of 0.5. These metrics demonstrate that none of the independent variables exhibit
problematic multicollinearity, and each predictor contributes uniquely to explaining the variance in procurement performance. The
absence of multicollinearity reinforces the reliability of the individual regression coefficients and the stability of the overall model
estimates.

Independence of Residuals
The assumption of independence of residuals, which is particularly relevant in cross-sectional datasets, was evaluated using the Durbin–
Watson statistic. A value of 1.84 was obtained, which lies within the generally accepted range of 1.5 to 2.5. This finding indicates a low
likelihood of autocorrelation among the residuals. The absence of serial correlation enhances the credibility of the regression results by
ensuring that standard errors are not artificially deflated or inflated due to dependent errors.

Conclusion on Assumption Testing

Collectively, the results of the diagnostic evaluations indicate that the assumptions of multiple linear regression have been adequately
met. The linearity, normality, homoscedasticity, and independence assumptions are all supported by visual and statistical evidence, and
multicollinearity is demonstrably absent. Consequently, the regression findings presented in subsequent sections may be interpreted
with a high degree of statistical confidence, and policy implications drawn from the analysis can be considered empirically grounded.

Table 4.8: Model Summary (Regression)

Model R R² Adjusted R² Std. Error

1 0.714 0.510 0.501 0.437

To assess the predictive capacity of procurement planning dimensions on procurement performance, a multiple linear regression model
was employed. The model was found to be statistically significant (F = 50.567, p < 0.001), confirming that the independent variables
collectively account for a meaningful portion of the variance in procurement performance. The model’s R² value of 0.510 indicates that
51.0% of the variability in procurement performance can be explained by the four planning variables combined.

Table 4.9: ANOVA

52
 Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.

Regression 38.612 4 9.653 50.567 0.000

Residual 36.986 204 0.181

Total 75.598 208

Interpretation of Table 4.9: ANOVA Results

The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) table provides insight into the overall statistical significance of the multiple linear regression
model. As shown in Table 4.9, the regression sum of squares is 38.612, while the residual (error) sum of squares is 36.986, resulting in a
total sum of squares of 75.598. These figures represent the total variability in procurement performance, partitioned into the portion
explained by the regression model and the portion attributable to random error or unexplained variance.

The computed F-statistic is 50.567, with 4 degrees of freedom for the regression and 204 degrees of freedom for the residual. The
associated significance value (p-value) is 0.000, which is well below the conventional alpha threshold of 0.05. This highly significant
F-ratio indicates that the overall regression model provides a substantially better fit to the data than a model with no predictors.

In practical terms, the ANOVA result confirms that the combination of supplier selection, top management support, needs assessment,
and budget estimation significantly improves the prediction of procurement performance. It validates that the variance in the dependent
variable explained by the model is not due to chance and that the linear relationship modeled is statistically meaningful. Consequently,
this finding supports the conclusion that procurement planning dimensions, when analyzed collectively, exert a statistically significant
influence on procurement performance within the Somali Regional State.

Table 4.10: Coefficients

Variable Standardized β t Sig.

Supplier Selection 0.284 4.388 0.000

Top Management Support 0.172 2.651 0.009

Needs Assessment 0.208 3.354 0.001

Budget Estimation 0.306 5.234 0.000

The standardized coefficients show that all four predictors make significant individual contributions to the dependent variable. Budget
estimation emerged as the most influential predictor (β = 0.306, t = 5.234, p < 0.001), highlighting the central role of accurate, flexible,
and timely financial forecasting in driving procurement success. Supplier selection was the next strongest predictor (β = 0.284, t =
4.388, p < 0.001), underscoring the importance of transparent evaluation procedures, supplier vetting standards, and risk minimization
strategies

Needs assessment also had a meaningful effect (β = 0.208, t = 3.354, p = 0.001), indicating that procurement plans that are rooted in
53
stakeholder input and real needs are more likely to result in performance gains. While top management support had the smallest
coefficient (β = 0.172, t = 2.651, p = 0.009), its significance nonetheless confirms that executive engagement—though perhaps less
directly felt—still plays a vital enabling role in creating an institutional environment conducive to efficient procurement.

These findings offer empirical validation for the theoretical claims advanced in the earlier chapters. In particular, they support Goal-
Setting Theory by demonstrating that clear, measurable, and realistic objectives—such as those derived through sound budgeting—are
associated with better performance. They also reinforce the view, grounded in public management literature, that integrated and
coherent procurement planning processes can significantly enhance institutional procurement capacity.

4.7 Hypothesis Testing and Interpretation of Results

In alignment with the theoretical framework and the objectives of the study, the multiple linear regression analysis was used to test the
four formulated hypotheses. Each hypothesis corresponds to a specific procurement planning dimension theorized to influence
procurement performance in public institutions of the Somali Regional State. The table below presents the results of the regression
model, followed by interpretive commentary and hypothesis decisions.

Hypothesis 1: Supplier Selection

 Alternative Hypothesis (H₁):

There exists a statistically significant and positive relationship between supplier selection practices and procurement
performance in the Road Authority and Water & Energy Bureaus of the Somali Regional State.
 Null Hypothesis (H₀₁):
There is no statistically significant relationship between supplier selection practices and procurement performance in the Road
Authority and Water & Energy Bureaus of the Somali Regional State.

Hypothesis 2: Top Management Support

 Alternative Hypothesis (H₂):

Top management support has a statistically significant and positive impact on procurement performance in regional public
institutions.
 Null Hypothesis (H₀₂):
Top management support does not have a statistically significant impact on procurement performance in regional public
institutions.

Hypothesis 3: Needs Assessment

 Alternative Hypothesis (H₃):

Needs assessment practices exert a statistically significant and positive influence on the alignment and responsiveness of
procurement performance.
 Null Hypothesis (H₀₃):
Needs assessment practices do not exert a statistically significant influence on procurement performance.

Hypothesis 4: Budget Estimation

 Alternative Hypothesis (H₄):

Accurate and systematic budget estimation significantly enhances procurement cost control and overall procurement
performance in the Somali Regional State.
 Null Hypothesis (H₀₄):
Budget estimation has no statistically significant effect on procurement cost control or procurement performance.

Table 4.9: Summary of Regression Coefficients and Hypothesis Testing

Decision on
Predictor Variable β Coefficient t-value p-value
H₀
Supplier Selection 0.284 5.102 0.000 Reject H₀₁
Top Management Support 0.218 4.012 0.000 Reject H₀₂
Needs Assessment 0.194 3.779 0.000 Reject H₀₃
Budget Estimation 0.306 5.386 0.000 Reject H₀₄
54
 Decision on
Predictor Variable β Coefficient t-value p-value
H₀

Interpretation of Hypothesis Results

 Supplier Selection (H₁): The regression coefficient (β = 0.284, p < 0.001) confirms that supplier selection significantly and
positively predicts procurement performance. The rejection of the null hypothesis (H₀₁) is consistent with the Principal-Agent
and Transaction Cost Economics theories, suggesting that transparent and criteria-based supplier selection mitigates agency risk
and improves outcomes.
 Top Management Support (H₂): With a β of 0.218 and p-value < 0.001, the data supports the proposition that top management
engagement significantly enhances procurement performance. The rejection of H₀₂ aligns with Goal-Setting Theory, which
posits that institutional performance improves when leadership articulates goals and monitors progress.
 Needs Assessment (H₃): The significant coefficient (β = 0.194, p < 0.001) confirms the positive influence of robust needs
assessment on procurement responsiveness and strategic alignment. Rejecting H₀₃ reinforces the role of stakeholder engagement
and participatory planning in elevating procurement outcomes, as per Stakeholder Theory.
 Budget Estimation (H₄): Among the four variables, budget estimation exhibited the strongest positive effect (β = 0.306, p <
0.001). Rejecting H₀₄ validates Agency Theory’s claim that aligning projected costs with real-time fiscal conditions improves
cost control and project execution reliability.

4.8 Discussion of Findings

The study investigated the influence of procurement planning dimensions—supplier selection, top management support, needs
assessment, and budget estimation—on procurement performance in the Somali Regional State. Both descriptive and inferential
statistics reveal critical patterns of underperformance and highlight areas with potential for reform.

Descriptively, all planning variables recorded mean scores below the neutral midpoint (3.0), indicating widespread dissatisfaction.
Procurement performance averaged 2.23, suggesting chronic delays, cost overruns, and quality failures. Supplier selection (mean =
2.30) and needs assessment (mean = 2.33) were particularly weak, confirming systemic procedural inconsistencies and reactive, non-
participatory planning. Budget estimation scored relatively higher (mean = 2.45), but respondents reported outdated cost data and
misaligned ceilings, echoing concerns by Simachew (2022) and Carruth (2018). These findings support Stakeholder Theory, which
emphasizes that excluding user input from procurement planning erodes legitimacy and performance, and Agency Theory, which
explains how weak oversight fosters misalignment between institutional goals and agent behavior.

Inferentially, Pearson correlation results confirmed strong, positive, and statistically significant relationships between all four planning
dimensions and procurement performance (p < 0.01). Budget estimation and supplier selection exhibited the highest correlations (r =
0.602 and r = 0.598, respectively), underscoring their centrality in driving procurement efficiency. This aligns with findings from
Kannan & Tan (2021), who demonstrated that transparent supplier vetting and data-driven budgeting improve procurement outcomes
across African states.

Multiple regression analysis revealed that the combined effect of the four predictors explains 51% of the variation in procurement
performance (R² = 0.510). Budget estimation (β = 0.306) and supplier selection (β = 0.284) were the strongest predictors, followed by
top management support (β = 0.218) and needs assessment (β = 0.194), all statistically significant (p < 0.001). These results reinforce
Goal-Setting Theory and Expectancy Theory, which assert that performance improves when institutions have clear targets, reliable
incentives, and strong managerial oversight. However, the descriptive findings suggest that these conditions remain aspirational in the
Somali Regional State.

In summary, while the statistical evidence supports the theoretical expectation that robust procurement planning enhances performance,
the empirical data highlight a critical implementation gap. The findings point to the need for institutional reforms focused on transparent
supplier systems, participatory planning processes, executive engagement, and real-time budget estimation tools—echoing reform
lessons from Rwanda, Kenya, and Uganda.

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4.9 Summary of Chapter Four

This chapter presented and analyzed empirical data to examine the relationship between procurement planning and procurement
performance in the Somali Regional State, focusing on four core dimensions: supplier selection, top management support, needs
assessment, and budget estimation. Through a combination of descriptive and inferential statistical techniques, the study identified
both systemic weaknesses and areas of statistically validated influence.

Descriptive analysis revealed that all four procurement planning variables, as well as the dependent variable—procurement performance
—scored below the neutral midpoint on the Likert scale. These results reflect broad dissatisfaction with current planning practices.
Supplier selection was perceived as inconsistent and non-transparent; needs assessments were viewed as reactive and top-down; budget
estimates were outdated and unaligned with real market data; and top management support was largely symbolic rather than strategic.
These patterns underscore a deep institutional deficit in procurement governance and planning efficacy.

Inferential results further illuminated these challenges. Pearson correlation analysis established strong and statistically significant
relationships between each planning variable and procurement performance, affirming the theoretical expectation that strategic planning
enhances procurement outcomes. Multiple regression analysis confirmed that the four variables collectively explained 51% of the
variance in procurement performance, with budget estimation and supplier selection emerging as the most influential predictors.
These findings were consistent with global and regional empirical studies, including work by Kannan & Tan (2021), Simachew (2022),
and Mekuria & Abate (2021), and aligned with theoretical frameworks such as Agency Theory, Stakeholder Theory, Goal-Setting
Theory, and Expectancy Theory.

In conclusion, Chapter Four provided robust empirical evidence that procurement planning is a critical determinant of procurement
performance, but that in the Somali Regional State, these planning functions are undermined by weak institutional capacity, political
interference, and limited strategic coordination. The findings provide a strong foundation for the next chapter, which will offer
conclusions, policy recommendations, and directions for future research.

CHAPTER FIVE
SYNTHESIS OF FINDINGS, CONCLUSIONS, AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

5.1 Synthesis of Core Findings

This study critically examined the extent to which procurement planning dimensions—supplier selection, top management support,
needs assessment, and budget estimation—influence public procurement performance in the Somali Regional State, with empirical
focus on the Road Authority and Bureau of Water and Energy. Utilizing a concurrent mixed-methods design, the research triangulated
data from structured surveys and semi-structured interviews to ensure methodological validity and contextual depth.

Descriptive statistics revealed a consistent pattern of underperformance across all core variables, with mean values below the theoretical
midpoint of 3.0. This denotes widespread institutional dissatisfaction with procurement planning processes and their outcomes.
Respondents reported that supplier selection lacked transparency and meritocracy, needs assessments were conducted in a perfunctory
or retroactive manner, budget estimations were based on outdated or arbitrary ceilings, and top management engagement was largely
symbolic.

Inferential statistical analysis provided further insights. Pearson correlation tests demonstrated strong and statistically significant
positive relationships between each planning dimension and procurement performance. Multiple linear regression analysis confirmed
that the four planning variables jointly explained 51% of the variance in procurement performance (R² = 0.510). Among these,
budget estimation (β = 0.306) and supplier selection (β = 0.284) emerged as the most powerful predictors. This underscores their
centrality in shaping procurement efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and service delivery outcomes.

These findings validate the study’s multi-theoretical framework. Agency Theory explains the misalignment between principal and
agent interests, especially in contexts of weak monitoring and opaque procurement practices. Stakeholder Theory contextualizes the
absence of participatory planning and its implications for procurement legitimacy and performance. Goal-Setting Theory and
Expectancy Theory offer compelling insights into the motivational dynamics of institutional actors, demonstrating that performance is
enhanced when roles are clear, targets are measurable, and effort is linked to reward. Collectively, the findings illustrate that
56
procurement planning is not only a procedural task but a strategic governance function with wide-ranging implications for institutional
accountability and development impact.

5.2 Analytical Conclusions

Drawing on the above findings, the study arrives at the following analytical conclusions:

1. Procurement planning is a structurally decisive determinant of procurement performance. The statistical evidence
indicates that strategic and coherent planning practices have the capacity to significantly enhance procurement efficiency,
compliance, timeliness, and cost control, particularly in fragile governance environments like Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State.
2. Budget estimation is the most influential planning variable. Yet, despite its statistical weight, it remains administratively
weak in practice—characterized by static budget ceilings, insufficient market intelligence, and weak linkages with procurement
schedules. This finding confirms earlier assertions by Simachew (2022) and the African Development Bank (2021) that weak
cost forecasting mechanisms are a persistent bottleneck in African procurement systems.
3. Supplier selection practices are both impactful and institutionally compromised. Although they significantly influence
procurement performance, current practices suffer from informality, lack of standardized evaluation criteria, and political
interference. This aligns with findings from Carruth (2018) and Yusuf & Gebru (2023), who argue that informalism and elite
capture are endemic in peripheral regions.
4. Top management support, while statistically significant, lacks operational depth. Executive involvement is often
ceremonial, detached from strategic procurement planning. Without active managerial leadership and oversight, procurement
units operate in isolation, weakening institutional coherence and accountability.
5. Needs assessment, though conceptually foundational, is procedurally neglected. The absence of participatory, evidence-
based planning mechanisms undermines the responsiveness of procurement to actual service delivery demands. This finding
reinforces the conclusions of Kakwezi & Nyeko (2010) and Gutu & Desta (2023), who emphasize the critical role of inclusive,
bottom-up planning in improving procurement effectiveness.
6. Theoretical integration enhances explanatory power. The study’s deployment of interlocking theories—Agency, Stakeholder,
Goal-Setting, and Expectancy—proved analytically productive, allowing for a multidimensional understanding of how
institutional behavior, incentives, and governance norms shape procurement planning and its performance implications.

5.3 Policy and Institutional Recommendations

In light of the empirical and theoretical insights generated, the study recommends the following policy actions and institutional reforms:

1. Institutionalize Strategic Procurement Planning Frameworks

The regional government should develop and enforce a standardized Procurement Planning Guideline that mandates annual and
multi-year procurement plans to be aligned with regional development priorities and fiscal ceilings. These guidelines must be binding
across all bureaus and should be integrated with sectoral strategic plans. Establishing an annual procurement calendar linked to
budgeting cycles will reduce reactive procurement and enable long-term performance tracking.

2. Digitize Procurement Planning and Monitoring Systems

The Somali Regional State must accelerate the transition to digital procurement systems by adopting an e-Procurement Planning
Module integrated with existing financial management systems. This will enhance real-time data collection, market analysis, cost
estimation accuracy, and supplier performance tracking. Lessons can be drawn from Rwanda’s e-GP platform, which links procurement
outcomes to managerial evaluations and KPIs.

3. Strengthen Technical Capacity Through Mandatory Certification

Procurement officers, planners, and finance administrators should undergo mandatory professional certification based on
international public procurement standards (e.g., CIPS, UNDP models). Capacity development should focus on advanced skills in
market forecasting, risk analysis, budgeting, and supplier appraisal. Regional training institutes must offer targeted modules in local
languages to ensure accessibility.
57
4. Reform Supplier Selection Procedures

A legally enforceable supplier prequalification and performance scoring system should be adopted. This system must assess vendors
based on financial stability, technical capability, past performance, and compliance with anti-corruption standards. All supplier selection
processes must be made public and subject to audit by the regional procurement oversight body to improve transparency and reduce
informal influence and elite capture.

5. Enhance Top Management Accountability

Bureau heads and top management must be held individually accountable for procurement failures arising from poor oversight or
unauthorized plan alterations. Procurement performance indicators should be included in the performance appraisals of senior officials.
This will create a culture of results-based leadership and institutional ownership over procurement plans.

6. Mandate Participatory Needs Assessments

The government should institutionalize participatory procurement planning by requiring end-user departments, community
stakeholders, and civil society to be involved in needs assessment and procurement reviews. This inclusive approach increases
legitimacy, reduces planning errors, and ensures that procurement reflects real service delivery needs—particularly in rural or conflict-
affected zones.

7. Create an Independent Regional Procurement Oversight Authority

To address weak enforcement and fragmented planning processes, a semi-autonomous Regional Procurement Oversight Authority
(RPOA) should be established. This body would be responsible for vetting plans, conducting real-time audits, blacklisting non-
compliant suppliers, and publishing quarterly procurement performance scorecards for public scrutiny.

8. Introduce Performance-Based Budget Estimation Models

Regional bureaus should move from static, ceiling-based budgeting to performance-linked budget estimation models that rely on
rolling forecasts, historical expenditure trends, and market-based costing. Integration of these models with scenario planning tools
would help mitigate inflationary shocks and logistical unpredictability in procurement.

9. Establish Legal Mandates for Procurement Data Transparency

Amend the regional procurement law to include mandatory public disclosure of procurement plans, awarded contracts, and supplier
evaluations. This transparency measure will empower oversight actors, reduce collusion, and promote a culture of accountability. An
open data portal should be created for this purpose.

10. Facilitate Federal-Regional Coordination Platforms

A formal intergovernmental coordination forum on procurement reform should be established between the Somali Regional State and
the federal Public Procurement and Property Administration Agency (PPPAA). This platform would allow for shared learning,
harmonization of planning tools, and alignment with national procurement reforms.

5.4 Directions for Future Research

Given the limitations and context-specific scope of this study, several areas warrant further scholarly exploration:

58
  Comparative Studies Across Regional States: To identify structural commonalities and divergences in procurement planning
across Ethiopia’s federal landscape.
 Longitudinal Impact Assessments: To trace how procurement planning reforms influence performance indicators over time
and under varying administrative leaderships.
 Digital Procurement and Planning Synergies: To explore how e-procurement tools reshape planning behaviors and
performance outcomes.
 Political Economy of Procurement: To interrogate how informal networks, identity politics, and power asymmetries affect
procurement planning decisions and implementation.
 Linkages with Development Outcomes: To empirically evaluate how procurement planning correlates with infrastructure
delivery, service access, and user satisfaction.

5.5 Concluding Remarks

This research affirms that procurement planning, when conceptualized and operationalized as a strategic governance function rather
than a bureaucratic formality, has profound implications for public procurement performance. In settings like the Somali Regional State
—marked by institutional fragility, administrative decentralization, and limited oversight—strategic procurement planning is
indispensable for achieving efficiency, transparency, and developmental impact.

The study’s findings offer not only empirical contributions to the public procurement literature but also actionable insights for
policymakers, institutional reformers, and procurement professionals. Addressing the structural deficiencies in planning—particularly in
budget estimation, supplier selection, and managerial oversight—will be vital for unlocking the transformative potential of public
procurement as a tool for development, equity, and institutional legitimacy in Ethiopia’s regions.

59
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APPENDEXES
ETHIOPIAN CIVIL SERVICE UNIVERSITY
COLLEGE OF FINANCE, MANAGEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT
Department Of Public Procurement and Asset Management
Appendix I: survey form
Salutations, I attend Ethiopia Civil Service University in Addis Ababa to pursue a master's degree in asset management and public
procurement. "The effect of procurement planning on procurement performance the case of selected bureau in the Somali regional state"
is the topic of my graduate-level research project. I'd like to extend an invitation to you to contribute to this study by offering your
expertise and insights on the subject. There is no risk or harm to anyone from this study; it is entirely academic. Anonymity will be
guaranteed, and every piece of information collected will be treated with the highest care and discretion. I would very value and
appreciate it if you could participate in a 30-minute interview. I appreciate you taking a look at this request.
Appendixes
Ethiopian civil service university
College of finance and management department of public procurement and asset management
questionnare
Research on an Public procurement planning on performance
The case of selected bureau in the Somali regional state.
My Name is Higal dek abdi I’m a Student at St. Ethiopia civil service university, college of finance, management and development
Masters in public procurement and asset management. This questionnaire is designed developed to gather valuable information
regarding the procurement planning and procurement performance the case of selected bureau in the Somali regional states. The
information gathered is just for research purposes. Thus, your ideas and comments are highly honored and kept confidential. Writing
your name is not required and please tick mark (√) your choice as per the instruction. If you have any questions, please call 0915777122
email address xigaaldeeq366@[Link]
Personal information
Gender
male female
Age
18-14 25-32 33-40 41-48
49-59 60 and above

67
Your field study
Educational background
High school complete
Diploma
Degree
Masters
PhD
Other
5. Work experience in finace and procurement
1-5
6- 10
11-15
Above 6
Current position in your office -----------------------------------------------
7. Departments
Finance
Human resource
Please use the supplied scale to indicate how you feel about the following statement.
Ethiopian civil service university department of public procurement and asset management
The effect of procurement planning on procurement performance the case of selected bureau in the Somali regional states
Question for the Interview: Budget Estimation
1. Could you explain the procedure your company employs to estimate the budget for public procurement? 2. What difficulties do you
have when projecting procurement project budgets? 3. How frequently do you discover that your estimated budget and actual spending
match up? 4. In your experience, how does the accuracy of budget estimation affect procurement performance? 5. How are stakeholders
included in the process of budget estimation? 6. How do you keep an eye on budget compliance during the procurement process? 7.
What elements, in your opinion, go into an effective budget estimation? 8. How do you modify spending plans when unforeseen shifts
in the requirements for procurement occur?
Top Management support 9. How would you characterize the degree of top-level management support for your company's procurement
initiatives? 10. Could you give instances of how procurement performance has benefited from top management's influence? 11. What
obstacles do you have when trying to get senior management on board with procurement initiatives? 12. How do your procurement
decisions be influenced by senior management communication? 13. How are employee engagement and morale in procurement
impacted by senior management involvement? 14. How does upper management handle problems pertaining to procurement? 15. How
do you think management goals and procurement objectives line up?
Supplier selection
16. When choosing suppliers, what factors do you think are most crucial? 17. Could you explain the procedure your company uses to
assess possible suppliers? 18. How do you evaluate the past performance of suppliers before choosing one? 19. What difficulties do you
run into while choosing a supplier? 20. In your selection criterion, how significant is supplier diversity? 21. How do procurement results
change when local vendors are chosen? 22. How do you make sure the providers you choose fulfill quality requirements? 23. How does
supplier selection take into account input from prior procurement experiences?
NEED ASSESSMENT 24. Could you describe the process your company uses for need assessments? 25. What difficulties do you run
into when collecting information for need analyses? 26. How can need evaluations be made sure to appropriately represent the
organization's procurement needs? 27. How are stakeholders involved in the process of need assessment? 28. How is supplier selection
impacted by the results of need assessments? 29. How do you verify the results obtained from need assessments? 30. How do you
modify procurement strategies in response to shifting organizational requirements?

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 Ethiopian civil service university department of public procurement and asset
management

The effect of procurement planning on procurement performance the case of selected

bureau in the Somali regional states

Question for the Interview: Budget Estimation 1. Could you explain the procedure your
company employs to estimate the budget for public procurement?

2. What difficulties do you have when projecting procurement project budgets?

3. How frequently do you discover that your estimated budget and actual spending match
up?
4. In your experience, how does the accuracy of budget estimation affect procurement
performance?
5. How are stakeholders included in the process of budget estimation?
6. How do you keep an eye on budget compliance during the procurement process?
7. What elements, in your opinion, go into an effective budget estimation?
8. How do you modify spending plans when unforeseen shifts in the requirements for
procurement occur?

Top Management support

9. How would you characterize the degree of top-level management support for your
company's procurement initiatives?
10. Could you give instances of how procurement performance has benefited from top
management's influence?

11. What obstacles do you have when trying to get senior management on board with
procurement initiatives?
12. How do your procurement decisions be influenced by senior management
communication?
13. How are employee engagement and morale in procurement impacted by senior
management involvement?
14. How does upper management handle problems pertaining to procurement?
15. How do you think management goals and procurement objectives line up?

Supplier selection

II
16. When choosing suppliers, what factors do you think are most crucial?
17. Could you explain the procedure your company uses to assess possible suppliers?

18. How do you evaluate the past performance of suppliers before choosing one?
19. What difficulties do you run into while choosing a supplier?
20. In your selection criterion, how significant is supplier diversity?
21. How do procurement results change when local vendors are chosen?
22. How do you make sure the providers you choose fulfill quality requirements?
23. How does supplier selection take into account input from prior procurement
experiences?

NEED ASSESSMENT
24. Could you describe the process your company uses for need assessments?
25. What difficulties do you run into when collecting information for need analyses?

26. How can need evaluations be made sure to appropriately represent the
organization's procurement needs?
27. How are stakeholders involved in the process of need assessment?
28. How is supplier selection impacted by the results of need assessments?
29. How do you verify the results obtained from need assessments?
30. How do you modify procurement strategies in response to shifting organizational
requirements?

II