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Probability and Statistics Tutorial 4

This document is a tutorial for a Probability and Statistics course, containing various questions and problems related to statistical concepts such as estimators, hypothesis testing, and data analysis. It covers topics including unbiased estimators, significance levels, and various statistical tests like z-tests and t-tests. Additionally, it includes practical exercises involving sample data and statistical calculations to reinforce learning.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
22 views6 pages

Probability and Statistics Tutorial 4

This document is a tutorial for a Probability and Statistics course, containing various questions and problems related to statistical concepts such as estimators, hypothesis testing, and data analysis. It covers topics including unbiased estimators, significance levels, and various statistical tests like z-tests and t-tests. Additionally, it includes practical exercises involving sample data and statistical calculations to reinforce learning.

Uploaded by

udayrahate0
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

COEP TECH.

UNIVERSITY
Department of Mathematics
(MA- 23005) Probability and Statistics
F.Y. B. Tech.

Tutorial 4 on Unit 4
1. What is meant by the word ’Statistic’?

2. Define Power of test, Unbiased estimator, Bias, Estimator.

3. What is meant by an unbiased estimator of a population parameter θ?


What is biased estimator of a population parameter?
4. Let X1,X2,...,Xn be n random variables with E(Xi) = µ and V ar(Xi) = σ2,

i = 1,2,...,n. What is an unbiased estimator of mean µ and that of σ2?


5. The numbers of incorrect answers on a true-false compentency test for
a random sample of 15 students were recorded as follows:
2,1,3,0,1,3,6,0,3,3,5,2,1,4,2. Find the mean, the median, the mode.
6. Find the probability that a random sample of 25 observations, from a
normal population with variance σ2 = 6, will have a variance (a) S2
greater than 9.1. (b) S2 lying in between 3.462 and 10.745. Ans: (a) 0.05
(b) 0.94

7. Prove that the sample mean is an unbiased estimator for the


population mean µ.
8. Find an unbiased estimator for the population variance σ2.

9. Define type-I error and type-II error in testing of hypothesis one can do.

10. What is meant by significance level and p-value?

11. Increase in sample size n will ....(increase/reduce) α and β


simultaneously.

1
12. Explain the use of z- test, t- test, Chi-square test and F-test in testing of
hypothesis.
13. Using statistical tables find the following:
when degree of freedom is 15 ANS:
27.488
when degree of freedom is 18
ANS:34.805
when degree of freedom is 25
ANS:37.652
(iv) t0.025 when degree of freedom is 15
ANS:2.131
(vi) f0.05 when degree of freedom are 7 and 15

(vii) f0.99 when degree of freedom are 28 and 12

(viii) f0.01 when degree of freedom are 24 and 19

(ix) χ2α if P(X2 < χ2α) = 0.95 when degree of

freedom is 6
when degree of freedom is 16

when degree of freedom is 10


(xii) P(T < 2.365) when degree of freedom is 7 ANS: 0.975
(xii) P(T > −2.567) when degree of freedom is 17 ANS:0.99
(xiii) P(−t0.005 < T < t0.01) when degree of freedom is 20
ANS:0.985
(xiv) k such that P(k < T < 2.807) = 0.095 for a random
sample of size 24 from a normal population.
and represent the variances of independent random samples of
size 8 and 12 respectively, taken from a normal population with equal
variances, find
16. A manufacturer of car batteries claims that the life of the company’s
batteries is approximately normally distributed with a standard deviation
2
equal to 0.9 year. If a random sample of 10 of these batteries has
standard deviation of 1.2 years, do you think that σ > 0.9 years? Use a
0.05 level of significance.
17. A study is conducted to compare the lengths of time required by men and
women to assemble a certain product. Past experience indicates that the
distribution of times for both men and women is approximately normal
but the variance of the times for women is less than that for the men. A
random sample of times for 11 men and 14 women gives respective
standard deviations 6.1 and 5.3. Test the hypothesis that against
the alternative that .
18. A manufacturer of a certain brand of energy bar claims that the average
saturated fat content in the bar is 0.5 gms. Will you support his claim if
the 8 bars that you examined for fat content were found to contain 0.6,
0.7, 0.7, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.4 and 0.2 gms of saturated fat? Assume
normality. Take α = 0.05.

19. A sample of 100 tyres is taken from a lot. The mean life of tyres is found
to be 39350 kms. with the population standard deviation of 3260 kms.
Test the hypothesis, at 1 percent level of significance, that the mean life
of tyre is 40000 kms.
20. Weight in kg of 10 lambs are 38, 40, 45, 53, 47, 43, 55, 48, 52, 49. Can
we say that the variance of the population from which the above sample
is drawn has a variance of 20 [Link]? Assume α = 0.05
21. Two random samples were drawn from two normal populations and their
values are:

A : 66 67 75 76 82 84 88 90
92
B : 64 66 74 78 82 85 87 92
93 95 97

Test whether the two populations have the same variance at 10% level of
significance.
22. The following data represents the number of Statistics lectures attended
by 18 students: 9, 12, 18, 14, 12, 14, 12, 10, 16, 14, 13, 15, 13, 11, 13,

3
11, 9, 11. Perform a sign test to test the instructor’s claim that the median
of number of lectures attended is 12. Use a 2% level of significance.
23. The table shows the standard Deviation and Sample Standard Deviation
for both men and women. Find the f statistic considering the Men
population in numerator.

Population Sample
Population s.d s.d.
Men 30 35 (Ans: 1.68)
Women 50 45

24. A company manufactures light bulbs. The CEO of the company claims
that an average light bulb lasts 300 days. A researcher randomly selects
15 bulbs for testing. The sampled bulbs last an average of 290 days, with
a standard deviation of 50 days. If the CEO’s claim were true, what is
the probability that 15 randomly selected bulbs would have an average
life of no more than 290 days? (Ans: t=- 0.7745966, cumulative
probability=0.226. So if the true bulb life were 300 days, there is a
22.6% chance that the average bulb life for 15 randomly selected bulbs
would be less than or equal to 290 days.)

25. Dishwasher powder is poured into the cartons in which it is sold by an


automaticdispensing machine which is set to dispense 3 kg of powder
into each carton. In order to check that the dispensing machine is
working to an acceptable standard (i.e. does not need adjustment), a
production engineer takes a random samples of 40 cartons and weighs
them. It is found that the mean weight of the sample is 3.005 kg. It is
known that the dispensing machine operates with a variance of 0.0152
kg2 and that the manufacturer of the powder is willing to rely on a 5%
level of significance. Does the sample provide the engineer with
sufficient evidence that the true mean is not 3.00 kg and so the machine
requires adjustment? (Ans: machine is not operating acceptably and
needs adjustment)
26. Conduct an F-Test on the following samples:
Sample-1 having variance = 109.63, sample size = 41.

4
Sample-2 having Variance = 65.99, sample size = 21.
27. Test the null hypothesis that the following sample is from a population
with median 100 against the alternative the median is greater than 100
i.e., Use normal approximation to Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test (without
continuity correction) Assume that the distribution of differences is
symmetric. 98.38, 115.33, 98.62, 114.38, 87.79, 84.06, 96.18, 98.74, 91,
107.82, 108.28, 112.62, 124.18, 101.99, 112.51, 75.65, 83.77, 84.91,
109.73, 109.41, 100.4, 95.37, 115.46, 111.78, 86.13, 82.14, 78.47, 98.18

28. The proportion of adults living in a small town who are college
graduates is estimated to be p=0.6. To test this hypothesis, a random
sample of 15 adults is selected. If number of college graduates in our
sample is anywhere from 6 to 12 , we shall not reject the null hypothesis
that p = 0.6; otherwise we shall conclude that p 6= 0.6.
(a) Evaluate α assuming that p = 0.6. Use binomial distribution.
(b) Evaluate β for the alternatives p = 0.5 and p = 0.7. (c) Is this a good
test procedure?

29. In Relief from Arthritis published by Thorsons Publishers, Ltd., John E.


Croft claims that over 40% of those who suffer from osteoarthritis receive
measurable relief from an ingredient produced by a particular species of
mussel found off the coast of New [Link] test this claim, the mussel
extract is to be given to a group of 7 osteoarthritic patients. If 3 or more of
the patients receive relief, we shall not reject the null hypothesis that p = 0.4;
otherwise, we conclude that p < 0.4. (a) Evaluate α, assuming that p = 0.4.
(b) Evaluate β for the alternative p = 0.3

[Link] PQR company claims that the lifetime of a type of battery that it
manufactures is more than 250hrs. A consumer advocate wishing to
determine whether the claim is justified measures the lifetimes of 24 of the
company’s batteries; the results are :
271,230,198,275,282,225,284,219,253,
216,262,288,236,291,253,224,264,295,211,252,294,242,272,268.
Assuming the sample to be random, Using Sign test, determine whether the
company’s claim is justified at the 0.05 significance level.

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6

Common questions

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The sign test is a non-parametric test used to evaluate a median claim when data do not necessarily meet parametric test assumptions such as normality. It tests if the median of a sample is equal to a specified value. In practice, each data point is compared to the hypothesized median, and the data are replaced with +, -, or 0 depending on whether the point is above, below, or equal to the median. The number of positive and negative signs forms a binomial distribution. The test statistic, evident from the number of positives or negatives, helps determine if deviations from the hypothesized median are statistically significant. It is applied using a selected significance level (e.g., 5%) to either accept or reject the median claim .

Various statistical tests are used to compare means and variances depending on the data's characteristics. The Z-test is suitable for comparing means when the sample size is large or the population variance is known. The t-test is applicable for smaller samples or unknown population variance. The Chi-square test is used to compare variance with a known population variance. The F-test compares two population variances. Selection of tests depends on assumptions like normality, sample size, and whether the variances are equal (homoscedasticity). Thus, the tests help determine if there are significant differences in population parameters or variances .

In hypothesis testing, a Type I error occurs when the null hypothesis \( H_0 \) is incorrectly rejected when it is true. It is denoted by \( \alpha \), the significance level, representing the probability of making this error. Conversely, a Type II error occurs when \( H_0 \) is not rejected when it is false. It is denoted by \( \beta \), representing the failure to detect a difference when one exists. These errors imply that statistical tests can lead to incorrect conclusions, and the balance between \( \alpha \) and \( \beta \) affects the test's sensitivity and specificity. Increasing sample size can reduce both errors simultaneously, improving test power \( 1 - \beta \).

To evaluate the probability of observing a specific sample mean—in this case, an average of 290 days for battery lifespan, under the null hypothesis that the true mean is 300 days—the t-distribution is employed. Here, the test statistic \( t \) is calculated using \( t = \frac{\bar{x} - \mu}{s / \sqrt{n}} \), where \( \bar{x} \) is the sample mean, \( \mu \) is the hypothesized population mean, \( s \) is the sample standard deviation, and \( n \) is the sample size. With the calculated \( t \approx -0.7746 \), the probability (also known as the p-value) associated is found using the t-distribution table, yielding a cumulative probability of 22.6%. Therefore, there is a 22.6% chance that the sample mean would be less than 290 days if the true mean were 300 days .

Statistical tests, such as the binomial test, are essential in evaluating the effectiveness of a medical treatment by comparing the observed success rate against a hypothesized success rate. For example, if a mussel extract is claimed to relieve osteoarthritis in over 40% of patients, statistical hypotheses are set up: \( H_0 \) that \( p = 0.4 \) vs. \( H_1 \) that \( p > 0.4 \). Testing involves comparing actual success counts against expected counts under \( H_0 \), using statistical tables or software to determine if observed effectiveness (e.g., 3 out of 7 patients showing improvement) is significantly greater than chance given the sample size. The test evaluates reliability of the claim by calculating the probability of obtaining the observed or more extreme results if \( p = 0.4 \) were true, hence informing treatment efficacy .

To evaluate the robustness of a test procedure, the balance and rates of Type I (\( \alpha \)) and Type II (\( \beta \)) errors must be analyzed. Consider the test to decide whether a procedure's error rates and power (\( 1 - \beta \)) meet acceptable standards. A robust procedure efficiently controls \( \alpha \), ensuring a low probability of false positives, and \( \beta \), maintaining the ability to detect true positives. This can be performed by specifying plausible alternative hypotheses, determining the practical consequences of errors, and adjusting the sample size which influences both errors. Tools like the ROC curve may also be used to visually assess and optimize test decision thresholds .

In hypothesis testing, the p-value measures the strength of evidence against the null hypothesis \( H_0 \). It represents the probability of obtaining a test statistic at least as extreme as the one observed, given that \( H_0 \) is true. A smaller p-value indicates stronger evidence against \( H_0 \). The significance level \( \alpha \), often set at 0.05 or 0.01, is the threshold for deciding whether to reject \( H_0 \). If the p-value is less than \( \alpha \), \( H_0 \) is rejected, suggesting that the observed data provide significant evidence to support the alternative hypothesis. Thus, both the p-value and \( \alpha \) guide conclusions about hypotheses .

To determine if a manufacturing process, such as a dispensing machine set to deliver 3 kg on average per carton but has a sample mean of 3.005 kg, requires adjustment, a statistical test is performed using hypothesis testing. The null hypothesis \( H_0 \) is that the true mean \( \mu \) is 3 kg, and the alternative hypothesis \( H_1 \) is that \( \mu \) is not 3 kg. Given the known variance of 0.0152 kg² and employing the Z-test for a sample size of 40, the Z-score is calculated using \( Z = \frac{\bar{x} - \mu}{\sigma / \sqrt{n}} \), where \( \bar{x} \) is the sample mean. The calculated Z-score is then compared to the critical values for a 5% significance level. If the Z-score falls outside the range, we reject \( H_0 \), concluding the machine requires adjustment for not operating at the standard .

Increasing sample size has significant implications on hypothesis testing error rates. A larger sample size generally reduces Type I error risk by providing a more precise estimate of the population parameter, confirming or rejecting hypotheses more reliably without 'false alarms.' Similarly, it enhances the power of a test \( 1-\beta \), decreasing Type II error by making it easier to detect true differences when they exist. This improved sensitivity ensures that test outcomes are less influenced by random sampling variation, as more data provide a clearer view of actual population trends .

An unbiased estimator of a population parameter is a statistic used to estimate the parameter such that the expected value of the statistic is equal to the true parameter value. In mathematical terms, an estimator \( \hat{\theta} \) is unbiased for a parameter \( \theta \) if \( E(\hat{\theta}) = \theta \). To prove that the sample mean is an unbiased estimator of the population mean \( \mu \), we consider a random sample \( X_1, X_2, ..., X_n \) with each \( X_i \) having mean \( \mu \) and variance \( \sigma^2 \). The sample mean \( \bar{X} = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n} X_i \). The expectation of the sample mean \( E(\bar{X}) \) is given by \( E(\bar{X}) = E\left( \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n} X_i \right) = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n} E(X_i) = \mu \). Thus, the sample mean is an unbiased estimator of \( \mu \).

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