Basic Probability
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Probability
Probability is the numerical measure of
the likelihood that an event will occur
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objectives
Determine sample spaces and find the
probability of an event, using classical
probability or empirical probability.
Find the probability of compound events,
using the addition rules.
Find the probability of compound events,
using the multiplication rules.
Find the conditional probability of an
event.
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Sample Spaces and Probability
A probability experiment is a chance
process that leads to well-defined results
called outcomes.
An outcome is the result of a single trial of
a probability experiment.
A sample space is the set of all possible
outcomes of a probability experiment.
An event consists of outcomes.
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Basic Probability Concepts
Probability – the chance that an uncertain
event will occur (always between 0 and 1)
Impossible Event – an event that has no
chance of occurring (probability = 0)
Certain Event – an event that is sure to
occur (probability = 1)
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Addition rule
The Additive Rule for Unions:
For any two events, A and B, the
probability of their union, P(A B), is as
follows
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)- P(AB)
When two events A and B are mutually
exclusive, P(AB) = 0
and P(AB) = P(A) + P(B).
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Example : Medical Staff
In a hospital unit there are 8 nurses and 5 physicians; 7
nurses and 3 physicians are females.
If a staff person is selected, find the probability that the
subject is a nurse or a male.
Staff Females Males Total
Nurses 7 1 8
Physicians 3 2 5
Total 10 3 13
P Nurse or Male P Nurse P Male P Male Nurse
8 3 1 10
13 13 13 13
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Complement rule
We know that for any event A:
◦ P(A AC) = 0
Since either A or AC must occur,
P(A AC) =1
so that P(A AC) = P(A)+ P(AC) = 1
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Multiplication Rules
Two events A and B are independent events if
the fact that A occurs does not affect the
probability of B occurring.
Multiplication Rules
P A and B P A P B Independent
P A and B P A P B A Dependent
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Conditional Probability
Conditional probability is the
probability that
the second event B occurs given that the first
event A has occurred.
Conditional Probability
P A and B
P B A
P A
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Example Women in the Military
A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought
women in the armed forces should be permitted to
participate in combat. The results of the survey are
shown.
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example
a. Find the probability that the respondent answered yes (Y),
given that the respondent was a female (F).
8
PFa
ndY
YF PF 50 50 25
1
00 8 4
P
1
00
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Example Women in the Military
b. Find the probability that the respondent was a male (M),
given that the respondent answered no (N).
18
PNa
ndM
M PN 6 1
00 18 3
P N
0 60 10
1
00
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summary
P( A B)
Conditional probability: P( A | B)
P( B)
Independent and dependent events
Additive Rule of Probability:
P( A B) P( A) P( B) P( A B)
Multiplicative Rule of Probability:
P( A B) P( A) P( B | A)
Total Probability
Reading assignment
Counting rules
Permutation
combination
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