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Lotto Probability Distribution Analysis

The document is a review of probability distributions, including problems related to normal distributions, expected values, and probabilities involving dice games. It covers various scenarios such as finding probabilities for normally distributed variables, expected counts of specific outcomes, and calculating probabilities for game outcomes. The document consists of multiple sections with specific questions and marks allocated for each problem.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
13 views3 pages

Lotto Probability Distribution Analysis

The document is a review of probability distributions, including problems related to normal distributions, expected values, and probabilities involving dice games. It covers various scenarios such as finding probabilities for normally distributed variables, expected counts of specific outcomes, and calculating probabilities for game outcomes. The document consists of multiple sections with specific questions and marks allocated for each problem.

Uploaded by

sveitwalsh22
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

11AASL Probability Distribution Review – calculator allowed.

1. A random variable X is distributed normally with a mean of 20 and variance 9.

(a) Find P(X ≤ 24.5).


(3)

(b) Let P(X ≤ k) = 0.85.

(i) Represent this information on the following diagram.

(ii) Find the value of k.


(5)
(Total 8 marks)

2. A box holds 240 eggs. The probability that an egg is brown is 0.05.

(a) Find the expected number of brown eggs in the box.


(2)

(b) Find the probability that there are 15 brown eggs in the box.
(2)

(c) Find the probability that there are at least 10 brown eggs in the box.
(3)
(Total 7 marks)

1
3. Let the random variable X be normally distributed with mean 25, as shown in the following
diagram.

The shaded region between 25 and 27 represents 30 % of the distribution.

(a) Find P(X > 27).


(2)

(b) Find the standard deviation of X.


(5)
(Total 7 marks)

4. Two fair 4-sided dice, one red and one green, are thrown. For each die, the faces are labelled 1,
2, 3, 4. The score for each die is the number which lands face down.

(a) List the pairs of scores that give a sum of 6.


(3)

The probability distribution for the sum of the scores on the two dice is shown below.

Sum 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 3 1
Probability p q r
16 16 16 16

(b) Find the value of p, of q, and of r.


(3)

Fred plays a game. He throws two fair 4-sided dice four times. He wins a prize if the sum is 5 on three
or more throws.

(c) Find the probability that Fred wins a prize.


(6)
(Total 12 marks)

2
5. Evan likes to play two games of chance, A and B.

For game A, the probability that Evan wins is 0.9. He plays game A seven times.

(a) Find the probability that he wins exactly four games.


(2)

For game B, the probability that Evan wins is p. He plays game B seven times.

(b) Write down an expression, in terms of p, for the probability that he wins exactly four
games.
(2)

(c) Hence, find the values of p such that the probability that he wins exactly four games is
0.15.
(3)
(Total 7 marks)

6. The weights of players in a sports league are normally distributed with a mean of 76.6 kg,
(correct to three significant figures). It is known that 80 % of the players have weights between
68 kg and 82 kg. The probability that a player weighs less than 68 kg is 0.05.

(a) Find the probability that a player weighs more than 82 kg.
(2)

(b) (i) Write down the standardized value, z, for 68 kg.

(ii) Hence, find the standard deviation of weights.


(4)

To take part in a tournament, a player’s weight must be within 1.5 standard deviations of the mean.

(c) (i) Find the set of all possible weights of players that take part in the tournament.

(ii) A player is selected at random. Find the probability that the player takes part in the
tournament.
(5)

Of the players in the league, 25 % are women. Of the women, 70 % take part in the tournament.

(d) Given that a player selected at random takes part in the tournament, find the probability
that the selected player is a woman.
(4)
(Total 15 marks)

Common questions

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Utilize data description such as means and variances to inform policy on weight requirements or competitive standards. Use target delineation of weight based on standard deviation analysis such that inclusion reflects statistical tendencies and practical scenarios, factoring variance to broaden diversity without compromising skill. Implement continuous monitoring such as predictive modeling tools to ensure forecasts regimens adjust to fluctuating averages, yielding balanced competitive readiness .

To find the range of weights allowed, calculate the interval within 1.5 standard deviations from the mean: mean ± 1.5*σ. With mean = 76.6 kg and standard deviation σ calculated as approximately 5.20 kg, the range is 76.6 ± 1.5*5.20, which yields (68.9 kg, 84.3 kg) as possible weights for participation .

The probability of Fred winning a prize involves calculating the probabilities for exactly three and exactly four successful outcomes (sum of 5) out of four throws, and summing them. Using the binomial distribution formula, the probability of exactly k successes in n trials is given by P(X = k) = C(n, k) * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k), where C(n, k) is the binomial coefficient. First, find the probability p of getting a sum of 5 with a single throw of two dice. The possible combinations are (1,4), (2,3), (3,2), and (4,1), so p = 4/16 or 1/4. For three successes, P(X=3) = C(4, 3) * (1/4)^3 * (3/4)^1, and for four successes, P(X=4) = C(4, 4) * (1/4)^4. Thus, the total probability is P(X=3) + P(X=4).

The probability that a player weighs more than 82 kg is found by realizing that if 80% lie between 68 kg and 82 kg, then 10% weigh less than 68 kg and 10% weigh more than 82 kg. To find the standard deviation, use the z-scores corresponding to 68 kg and 82 kg such that together they cover 80% of the distribution. If P(X < 68 kg) = 0.05 corresponds to a z-score of -1.645, then compute standard deviation σ by solving 68 = 76.6 + (-1.645)*σ. Solve the equation to find σ ≈ 5.20 kg .

For winning exactly four games out of seven when winning probability p = 0.9, apply binomial probability formula: P(X = 4) = C(7,4) * (0.9)^4 * (0.1)^3. With C(7,4) = 35, calculate this to find probability, ensuring mathematical accuracy via logarithmic checks or tools verifying distribution parameters .

Using Bayes’ Theorem, the probability that a participating player is a woman is calculated as P(Woman | Tournament) = P(Woman and Tournament) / P(Tournament). Let P(W) = 0.25, P(T | W) = 0.7, and assuming P(T | not W) reflects the rest. The numerator P(W and T) = P(W) * P(T | W) = 0.25 * 0.7 = 0.175, and the probability P(Tournament) combines women and non-women who play, integrating P(T | not W) for full calculation. The final value is P(W | T) = 0.175 / P(T).

With dice labeled 1-4, calculate total outcomes: 16. For sums, some combinations are direct. Sum of 2 from (1,1), sum of 3 from (1,2), (2,1), etc. Hence, express in fractions of total. Use normalization such that all probabilities sum to 1 for test, distribute integer solutions fitting conditions implied by higher values not seen. Sum total matches 16 outcomes by adjusting definitions .

To find the standard deviation when 30% of the distribution lies between the mean 25 and a certain value 27, recognize that the normal distribution is symmetric and use the fact that the mean is 25. Hence, 15% of the distribution lies from 25 to 27. Use a standard normal distribution table or computational tools to find the z-score corresponding to 15% from the mean. Determine the z-score k such that P(0 < Z < k) = 0.15, find k ≈ 1.04. Then use the equation 27 = 25 + k*σ to solve for σ, giving σ = (27-25)/k, thus σ ≈ 1.92 .

The expected number of brown eggs is calculated by E(X) = n * p, where n is the total number of trials (eggs) and p is the probability of success (a brown egg). For 240 eggs with p = 0.05, E(X) = 240 * 0.05 = 12 brown eggs expected .

For normal distribution with mean μ = 20 and variance σ² = 9, the standard deviation σ = 3. To find P(X ≤ 24.5), first convert 24.5 into a z-score: z = (24.5 - 20) / 3 ≈ 1.5. Use standard normal distribution tables to find P(Z ≤ 1.5). The cumulative probability for z = 1.5 is approximately 0.9332, so P(X ≤ 24.5) ≈ 0.9332 .

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