VIDEO 1
Philippine Hazards: Science and Technology for CCA and DRR
Introduction
[Music]
I'll be talking about Philippine hazards, focusing on our country and how science and technology are
used for Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR).
The Philippines has a land area of about 300,000 square kilometers and is highly susceptible to hazards
due to its location. We are in the Pacific Ring of Fire and the Typhoon Belt. We also experience the
climatological effects of El Niño, La Niña, and the Southwest Monsoon.
Typhoons and Their Impacts
When there's a typhoon in the eastern part of the Philippines, it strengthens rain clouds over the South
China Sea (West Philippine Sea), leading to flooding in Metro Manila.
Since 1948 or 1949, numerous typhoons have entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
Each line on the typhoon track map represents a typhoon’s path since 1948.
● Mindanao is less affected by typhoons than Visayas and Luzon, which experience frequent
typhoons.
● This is why Mindanao suffers less damage to agricultural crops, making it the fruit basket of
the Philippines.
Typhoon-Related Hazards
Typhoons themselves are not the hazard; the real hazards are:
● Strong winds – Can rip off roofs, make trees fall, and cause fatalities.
● Floods – Can drown people and destroy infrastructure.
● Landslides – Triggered by excessive rainfall.
● Storm surges – Large waves that inundate coastal areas.
Earthquakes and the Pacific Ring of Fire
Aside from being in the typhoon belt, the Philippines is also in the Pacific Ring of Fire, where
earthquakes and volcanic eruptions frequently occur.
● Earthquake epicenters are concentrated in specific zones, based on historical records.
● Volcanoes are associated with earthquakes, lava, and fire, making the area highly active.
Earthquake-Related Hazards
The earthquake itself is not the hazard; rather, the hazards are:
● Ground shaking – Can cause buildings to collapse.
● Tsunamis – Can drown people and destroy coastal areas.
● Ground rupture – Can split the land apart.
● Liquefaction – Can cause buildings to sink.
If you are in an open field during an earthquake, you are less likely to die. The real danger comes from
collapsing structures and secondary hazards like tsunamis.
Volcanic Hazards
Volcanic eruptions themselves are not the hazard; the real hazards include:
● Pyroclastic flows – Extremely hot gas and debris that can burn everything in its path.
● Lava flows – Can bury homes and infrastructure.
● Lahars – Mudflows that carry volcanic debris.
● Noxious gases – Can be toxic and fatal.
The Philippines: A High-Risk Country
The Philippines is the 3rd most vulnerable country in the world to natural hazards.
● We experience nearly all types of hazards except those related to snow.
● Many people are exposed to these hazards but lack the capacity to respond due to poverty,
lack of awareness, or disabilities.
● This combination of hazard exposure, vulnerability, and lack of capacity results in high disaster
risk.
Many Filipinos are not fully aware of all the hazards present in their own areas. If even college students
are unaware of all hazards, imagine the level of awareness among those who do not study these topics.
Types of Hazards in the Philippines
The most frequent hazards include:
● Cyclones and extreme weather events (floods, storms)
● Landslides
● Tsunamis
● Volcanic eruptions
● Earthquakes
Cyclones and Weather Hazards
● From 1970 to 2009, floods and storms caused the most damage.
● On average, 20 cyclones enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) every year.
○ Luzon and Visayas experience 6 to 7 landfalls yearly.
○ Mindanao experiences less than one landfall per year.
Case Study: Guinsaugon Landslide (2006)
● A massive debris avalanche buried the town of Guinsaugon.
● A 700-meter-high ridge collapsed, covering 4 kilometers in length and 1.5 kilometers in width.
● 1,226 fatalities, 980 missing, and 139 injured.
● A search-and-rescue team of 2,000 people from the US, Taiwan, Spain, Singapore, Japan,
and the Philippines tried to locate an elementary school buried under 30 meters of rubble.
Case Study: Mayon Volcano Lahars (2006)
● Debris flows (lahars) cascaded down Mayon Volcano, killing nearly 2,000 people.
● Large boulders moved with the debris, overwhelming entire towns.
● People were caught by surprise as dikes upstream breached, redirecting the lahars to
previously safe areas.
Case Study: Iloilo and Pampanga Floods (2008-2011)
● Rivers overflowed beyond their normal widths, reclaiming floodplains.
● The Pampanga River, normally 50-100 meters wide, expanded to 10 kilometers during extreme
floods.
● Sendong Disaster (2011):
○ In Iligan, thousands of people died when the Mandulog River overflowed.
○ Informal settlements were completely buried.
○ Even upscale subdivisions were reduced to rubble.
Case Study: Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan, 2013)
● The strongest cyclone to make landfall, generating storm surges that killed thousands.
Case Study: Bohol Earthquake (2013)
● A 7.2 magnitude earthquake created a rupture several kilometers long, forming a
3-meter-high fault wall.
● Dubbed the "Great Wall of Bohol," the site became a tourist attraction to generate revenue.
The Role of Science in Disaster Risk Reduction
Many communities have hazard maps showing their exposure to risks. However, these maps are not
always used effectively.
There is a need to:
● Bring scientific information to communities (barangays).
● Engage people through social media, education, and volunteerism.
● Encourage students (e.g., from FEU) to educate communities about hazards.
NOAA and Hazard Monitoring
Visit the NOAA website to see:
● Real-time satellite images showing cloud formations.
● Weather advisories every 6 hours from PAGASA.
● Flood sensors streaming data every 15 minutes.
● Landslide and debris flow hazard maps at high resolution.
● Storm surge inundation maps for the entire Philippine coastline.
These resources help determine which schools, hospitals, and communities are at risk from hazards.
VIDEO 2
Disaster Risk Assessment and Early Warning Systems
00:00:01 [Music]
We disaster risk assessment wherein every time there is a typhoon that enters the Philippine Area of
Responsibility, everybody meets up—all agencies concerned with disasters meet up—and they discuss.
The reason why they discuss is because they want to prepare for the incoming hazards, and they know
that the warnings that should be given are the wirings that are hazard-specific, area-focused, and
time-bound.
● Example: When they see that it's raining in a certain place and the water level increases, you can
alarm the people. A water level that is recorded without any rain is actually more or less at a
certain height. But when there's a severe weather disturbance it goes up, and then when it
suddenly goes up—that's when the disaster strikes.
● The trick to avoid the disaster is to catch the water level while it's on the rise. With sensors that
indicate where it's raining and water level sensors upstream, there is at least about three to six
hours—sometimes 12 hours—lead time to evacuate. This method was used in Pedra to provide
hazard-specific, area-focused, and time-bound warnings.
● When the DRM officer was called at around 12 o’clock, big floods happened at 6:10. There was a
lead time, and before the peak floods occurred, the DRM officer in the local government unit was
already able to evacuate people from the hazards.
Using Sensor Data and Contouring
00:02:25
● Sensor Data: From the sensors, there’s a record of rainfall. The term is “contouring.”
● Color Scale:
○ Blue to yellow indicates about 300 to 400 millimeters of rain.
○ In the UK, they speak of 100 millimeters as a threshold for a flood that could devastate an
entire village.
● Local Context:
○ During Habaga in 2012 and 2013, Metro Manila had rainfall that reached about 1063
millimeters—ten times more than what the British fear.
○ If it rains in the mountains, the water will not all seep into the ground; some of it runs off
into streams and rivers, eventually reaching the sea.
● Lead Time:
○ If a community records rainfall of more than 100 millimeters (in this case 300 to 400
millimeters) the warning system gives enough time—up to 46 hours later—to avoid the
flood.
● This use of technology is called an early warning system. Without such a system, there is no
warning, and people are caught unaware.
Case Study: Cagayan Oro and Flash Floods
00:03:58
● Example from Cagayan:
○ On December 4, 2012, a sensor recorded rainfall that caused the river to rise from one
meter to eight meters in the span of one hour.
○ To put it in perspective, eight meters is roughly the height of two floors.
○ The water, rushing to the sea, had to pass through the Oro (a river) which was
devastated a year earlier in 2011.
● Despite the rapid rise, it was called a flash flood. When the flood reached Sagayan, people were
already in the hills viewing the hazard—all thanks to the early warning system.
Overview of Recent Disasters and Averted Events
00:05:26
● These are the last nights of the female disasters that happen ever since the Meccano Project
Noah.
● Some disasters were averted while others, like the Pablo landslide and the storm surge of
Cayenne tropical storms that devastated many towns in Biliran and Mindanao respectively, did
occur.
Warning and Response: Two Key Elements
00:06:15
● Warning:
○ It is the responsibility of the government to issue warnings.
○ These warnings must be accurate, reliable, timely, and understandable.
● Response:
○ No matter how good the warning is, it will not be effective if the response is not
appropriate.
○ Individuals must take appropriate action—avoiding complacency such as “sleeping and
being warned” or not even bothering to look outside.
○ Maps are crucial to direct evacuation. For example, in Tacloban, there was a storm surge
warning two days in advance, but the maps provided two years earlier (used by the LGU)
showed the storm surge inundation of the postal area.
■ These maps were based on interviews and community experiences. While
valuable, they may not be sufficient for unprecedented events.
Probabilistic Hazard Maps vs. Deterministic Maps
00:09:36
● Limitations of Interview-Based (Deterministic) Maps:
○ They provide an absolute value of the hazard height but do not indicate the inland
inundation extent.
○ For example, during Yolanda, the warning gave an absolute height but did not indicate
how far inland the water would reach.
● Need for Probabilistic Maps:
○ These maps are multi-scenario and depict small, big, and extreme events (like a
Yolanda-type storm surge).
○ They would allow advising people to evacuate two to three kilometers away from the
coastline.
○ Because technology was volatile at that time, such maps were not available. Now, with
investments in technology like LiDAR, and by training young scientists, we can create
these multi-hazard, multi-scenario (probabilistic) maps.
00:11:09
● Deterministic Example:
○ An official map may show an evacuation center in an area with low susceptibility (yellow
indicates low hazard).
○ However, after a disaster, if that area is inundated, the map must be updated.
● Lesson Learned:
○ Local knowledge is necessary but not sufficient. Science and technology must
supplement it to depict hazards of the future.
Advanced Mapping for Development Planning
00:14:08 to 00:16:03
● Multi-Scenario Probabilistic Mapping:
○ It integrates various hazard scenarios (storm surges, landslides, floods) with
high-resolution landscape depictions (elevation, land use maps).
○ Such mapping provides a clear visual of safe versus dangerous areas.
● Application in Community Planning:
○ Maps help determine where to site evacuation centers, residential areas, agriculture,
tourism, and other sectors.
○ By planning with advanced hazard maps, communities can be developed in areas less
prone to disasters.
○ This anticipatory planning can foster development across all sectors—agriculture, coastal
management, water health, forestry, biodiversity, environment, energy, education,
tourism, infrastructure, settlement, and mining.
00:17:35 to 00:18:17
● Example:
○ For tourism, even in dangerous areas like Carlow Viewing Center, planning for
evacuation centers and backup sites is crucial.
○ The planning approach considers the possibility of storms occurring two to three times a
year.
Climate Change and Future Disaster Projections
00:19:40 to 00:21:24
● Historical Data and Future Projections:
○ A graph shows accumulated rainfall per day—e.g., 280 millimeters recorded by PAGASA
(black line).
○ With climate change, events that once occurred once every 100 years (280 millimeters)
are projected to become far more frequent—potentially once every 12.5 days.
● Implication for Planners:
○ Planners (municipal, urban, architects) must translate this knowledge (from 280 to 400
millimeters) into actionable maps and plans.
○ The goal is to transform increasing rainfall data into flood maps that show inundation
extents and safe versus dangerous areas.
Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation
00:22:25 to 00:24:09
● Key Message:
○ Preparing solely based on historical rainfall is only addressing disaster risk reduction.
○ To prepare for future disasters driven by climate change, planning must incorporate
projected climate impacts.
○ This integrated approach is known as Climate Change Adaptation Disaster Risk
Reduction (CCA-DRR).
● Planning Vision:
○ Every community should be planned against hazards and climate change impacts across
all sectors.
○ If all 1,634 municipalities of the Philippines adopt anticipatory planning, communities will
be developed free from disasters, leading to overall national progress.
Conclusion and Call to Action
00:24:52 to 00:26:15 [Music]
● Final Thoughts:
○ Imagine a country where every community develops without the constant setback of
disasters.
○ Using the disaster platform and probabilistic hazard maps combined with local climate
change action plans, we can make the Philippines great.
○ This approach leverages science and technology to develop the country—helping
everyone from local residents to national planners.
● Call to Action:
○ Be part of this effort.
○ Help transform disaster platforms into tools for national development.
○ UC Science and anticipatory planning are key to our future.
Thank you.
00:00:00 [Music]
Foreign
It is very simple—it starts from very, very basic premises.
1. Climate Change as a Basic Premise
● Premise 1: Climate change and global warming are real.
○ The world’s temperatures have been rising for a long while.
○ Climate science is not something new that emerged in the last decade.
○ Many early voices warned that we would face a crisis soon unless we changed the way
our economies are run, the way we live, and the way our societies function.
2. Human Influence on Climate Change
● Premise 2: Why is it warming?
○ It is because of us—human beings.
○ In the scientific world, we call it anthropogenic influence—the influence of humans.
○ Our impact on our surroundings, on our classmates, on our families, and on our
environment is always significant.
○ Whether these impacts are negative or positive is up to us.
○ The science is clear: 97 percent of the scientific community worldwide agrees that climate
change is real and is due to human interference with the planet's climate system.
● Governments must act soon, because without citizen involvement nothing pretty much happens.
○ The crisis is not only bad—it’s getting worse.
○ The question is not whether we can fix it, but whether we can fix it in time to remake our
societies.
3. The Role of Specialization and Interdisciplinary Approaches
● Specialization is very important in academic settings, but it is not enough on its own.
○ If you focus too narrowly, you might disable your ability to be a better citizen and a better
contributor in any field.
○ Integrating insights from other disciplines is crucial.
● The actions taken by governments and citizens today will not only affect our future but also the
future of our children and generations to come.
○ The impacts we see today result from emissions decades ago.
○ Solutions in energy, infrastructure, transport, or forestry initiated today may only be felt in
20 or 30 years.
4. Understanding the Mechanics of Climate Change
● Solar Radiation and Greenhouse Gases:
○ The sun sends solar radiation into our planetary system.
○ Because of the excessive greenhouse gases, the radiation is trapped rather than being
dissipated.
● Climate vs. Weather:
○ Weather is the totality of all atmospheric phenomena.
○ Climate is the average of weather.
○ Changing the average weather disrupts the predictability of seasons, which many
economies depend on.
● Economic Implications:
○ Predictability of seasons is critical for entire economies.
○ Changing average weather puts economies at risk of incremental or large-scale collapse.
5. Comparative Planetary Perspectives
● Venus is too hot because it has too much greenhouse cover.
● Mars is too cold because it has too little.
● Earth, however, is optimal—but we are now altering those settings.
6. Visualizing the Crisis: The Hockey Stick Graph
● The graph—known as the hockey stick graph—shows temperature over time:
○ From 200 AD to 1200 AD, temperatures were relatively level.
○ Then, the temperature graph rises sharply (like a hockey stick), especially from the 2000s
onward.
○ This graph was created by Michael Mann in 1998 to illustrate the impact of human activity
on Earth's climate.
7. Carbon Dioxide (CO₂) Emissions and Measurements
● Multiple graphs show CO₂ measurements from ice core samples and from modern observatories
such as Mauna Loa.
○ Industrial period CO₂ emissions rose nearly alongside temperature increases.
○ A 2015 reading recorded 437.37 parts per million (PPM) and a 2018 reading was similar,
with a level of 409.43 PPM.
● The scientific consensus is that the safe level of CO₂ is around 350 PPM.
○ The current challenge is to prevent further increases and work to bring levels back to a
safe range.
8. Impacts of CO₂ and Other Climate Change Indicators
● Global Sea Ice Area Measurements:
○ Graphs (dating from 1978 to 2016) show significant melting.
● Greenland Glaciers:
○ Recent headlines and graphs show unprecedented retreat over the past 400 years.
○ Many people in South Asia depend on these glaciers for freshwater, so as they retreat,
freshwater supplies are at risk—potentially triggering conflicts in the region (e.g., India,
Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka).
● Antarctic Ice Shelves:
○ These are also melting rapidly.
○ Melting increases warming in surrounding areas and contributes to rising sea levels.
9. Sea Level Rise and Its Implications
● Causes of Sea Level Rise:
○ Melting glaciers add water volume because they sit on land.
○ Sea level rise is a result of climate change and will continue for millennia, even if
emissions are reduced.
● Consequences:
○ Coastal cities (like Manila, Miami, etc.) are at risk.
○ Island nations such as the Marshall Islands or Fiji face the threat of complete
submergence, which would also mean the loss of cultural heritage.
10. Rapid Arctic Warming and Weather Extremes
● Rapid Arctic warming is creating havoc in other climatic systems:
○ More extreme winter conditions, intense cold, and blizzards in other parts of the world.
○ Warming seas are leading to more intense typhoons.
○ For instance, while Yolanda (Haiyan) was not solely due to climate change, its intensity
increased because of additional energy from warming conditions.
● It is important to distinguish between natural weather variability and climate change-induced
impacts.
11. The Impact on Biodiversity
● A slide (to be delved into further) discusses the speed, scale, and timeline for various organi[Link]
○ Many organisms are moving uphill or toward the poles to find climates similar to those
they were born into.
○ Some species can only migrate as quickly as their habitats allow.
12. Future Projections and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
● Scientists use RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) to project different warming
scenarios:
○ One pathway represents current trends.
○ Other pathways represent less severe or worse scenarios, including RCP 8.5—a
runaway climate change scenario.
● A graph comparing 1990 to 2100 shows that under a business-as-usual scenario (no global
change), temperature increases could reach up to 4.8 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
○ As mentioned earlier, even a 2-degree rise is considered very dangerous.
00:00:00 [Music] Foreign
The most important thing that you also need to think of is not just the things that will make you depressed
but also the fact that solutions to this crisis are widely available and these are summarized in the
following: in power, in infrastructure, in transport, in forest, in agriculture. In order to reach the global goal,
science has said repeatedly that it is technically and scientifically possible to keep temperatures globally
at a safe level. What is the problem? It is politics that is not keeping pace.
00:01:08 – The Role of Politics and Energy
● Politics, as we know, is driven by the ability of citizens to actually make their government do the
right thing, to make the private sector do the right thing, and to make our own communities act.
● The area where change has to take place most rapidly is in energy because, as far as
greenhouse gas emissions are concerned, energy produces the biggest harm.
○ We rely on fossil fuels, which account for the bulk of greenhouse gas emissions warming
the atmosphere.
○ Technologies are already available, and supply exceeds demand, so we must transition
to clean energy as quickly as possible.
● Studies show that more jobs are produced in the wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, and hydro
sectors than in all fossil fuels combined.
○ Even Saudi Arabia—the last place you would ever think would make the transition—is
already seeing the signs and preparing for the future.
● Is our country doing the same? I'm not sure—I don't think we are.
○ The benefits of renewable energy outweigh our reliance on fossil fuels.
○ For instance, the cost of renewable energy in the Philippines is minuscule, offering huge
savings on fuel because our energy becomes more secure.
○ Instead of importing hundreds of billions of pesos annually for oil, coal, or gas, we can
rely on our own renewable resources.
00:03:24 – Economic and Environmental Benefits
● Renewable energy reduces air pollution, increases tourism, and improves the health and
well-being of citizens.
● Ten years ago, mentioning a multi-mega utility-scale solar farm in Palo would have been unheard
of. Today, options are great because solar prices have fallen by 99% since 1976.
● Countries like China, India, and Japan are moving upward in terms of clean energy in Southeast
Asia.
● However, governments continue to approve coal-fired power plant projects that, based on our
studies, will be uneconomical in the next two decades—they will become "stranded assets."
○ Renewable energy is deflationary in nature; it will continue to become cheaper.
○ This means more business will rely on renewable energy and less on coal.
● The problem is that if the currently approved coal plants become unprofitable and stranded,
citizens will end up paying for these bad business decisions made by banks and coal plant
developers—unless government policies change early.
○ The government must ensure we don't end up paying for their mistakes and must stop
approving new coal plants.
00:06:42 – Current Power Picture and Energy Security
● Our current power picture: 47.5% of our power generation relies on coal.
○ 70% of our coal is from Indonesia; 75% of our coal is imported, with 70% coming from
Indonesia.
○ The more we rely on coal, the more we depend on other countries for a polluting source.
● This needs to change: we must grow the share of renewable energy to increase energy security,
ensure affordable electricity prices, and promote long-term reliability.
● To decarbonize globally, the first domino to fall is not only fossil fuels but coal as well. Projections
indicate that coal needs to be phased out by 2030.
00:07:31 – Beyond Energy: Infrastructure and Broader Economic Impacts
● Good climate policy is not just about energy. It makes business sense because:
○ Upgrading infrastructure (bridges, supply chains, food supply, urban services, logistics)
creates jobs and pumps prime money into the economy.
○ As we adapt and become more resilient, we help the economy develop more quickly.
● Many changes in Philippine and global history have taken place because people already knew
they could contribute something—even if the consequences were uncertain. Every little thing
counts.
00:09:12 – Approaching Big Problems Sideways
● The solution to climate change takes everyone. Approach big problems sideways.
○ For example, consider acupuncture. While many think of the needles, very few think of
the basic science behind it.
○ If you focus on one problem alone, you might see other areas where your actions create
a broader impact.
● Your actions, whether in science, politics, energy, or infrastructure, contribute to addressing the
bigger problem of climate change.
○ Sideways thinking can reveal connections, such as how addressing one issue can impact
the source of another problem.
00:10:41 – Rethinking Population and Consumption
● Often, in climate discussions, someone will blame climate change on population.
○ However, evidence shows that the majority of emissions come from the richest parts of
the world, not from overall population growth.
● The solution lies in empowering women and educating girls.
○ Empowered and educated women tend to prefer smaller families and more efficient
household spending.
○ Thus, if we want to solve the climate crisis, it’s not just about energy transitions or better
transport—it’s also about empowering women and educating girls.
○ Anyone who says "population is the problem" is ignoring the fact that it's the consumption
and pollution from a minority that causes most emissions.
00:12:12 – Further Connections and Sideways Thinking
● Energy transitions, infrastructure upgrades, and better mass transport systems are all part of the
solution.
○ For example, creating energy-efficient buildings that use natural light or cooling reduces
the need for air conditioning and refrigerants (F gases), which are potent greenhouse
gases.
○ Promoting mass transport moves people rather than cars, reducing traffic and emissions.
○ Adopting plant-based diets can lower emissions from meat production.
● Empowering women and educating girls leads to smaller, more manageable families, reduced
consumption, and less energy-intensive lifestyles.
● Collective action and increased agency are crucial.
○ Work with others, increase your voice, and express yourself as a citizen—first for
yourself, then for your household and community.
00:16:02 – Collective Action and Urgency
● We must act together, with urgency, to shape a future we deserve.
○ Accept that the world will be remade into a future that you have a choice in—apathetic or
actively involved.
○ If you are indifferent, you will have no means of escaping the approaching future—a
future coming like a zombie lurching toward us.
○ We can defeat a bad future, but we must act collectively and urgently.
00:16:57 – Final Thoughts and Optimism
● Do not save pessimism for better times—be optimistic. Our collective actions matter.
● Sabine Jane Hirschfeld once said, "What some could not have escaped, others will find by
decision."
○ Every decision we make will branch out and count.
● Imagine if I spoke to a thousand students—every person in this room multiplies the possibility of
change.
○ I hope you find your own way and believe that you matter.
● [Music]