ABSTRACT

The goal of this article is to formulate and analyze the simplest logistic pair-formation model
and to contrast its dynamics to that of the corresponding Malthusian pair-formation model, that
is, a generalization of the Kendall-Keyfitz model. The Malthusian pair-formation model supports
a unique nontrivial stable exponential solution, and it is shown that the logistic pair-formation
model supports a unique stable nontrivial bounded solution.
 1. INTRODUCTION

Overview of population dynamics

Population dynamics is a subfield of ecology that studies the change in population sizes and
compositions overtime and the factors that influence these changes. It encompasses a variety of
biological, environmental and social factors, integrating aspects of biology, mathematics and
statistics to understand how population grows, shrink and interact with their environment.

Population dynamics can be analyzed using different modeling approaches, particularly one sex
and two sex models. These models help researchers understand the reproductive behaviors,
growth rates and overall dynamics of populations based on their sex structure.

One sex models consider only one sex(usually females) in the population dynamics analysis.
These models simplify the study of population growth by focusing solely on the reproductive
capacity of one sex.

Two sex models consider both males and females in the population dynamics analysis. These
models account for the interactions between the sexes, including mating behaviors and
reproductive success.

These models typically incorporate the proportion of males to females, which can significantly
influence reproductive success and population growth. They take into account mating behaviors,
competition among males, and the impact of sex specific mortality rates on overall population
dynamics.

Two sex population models are more complex and require more detailed data, but provide more
realistic representation of population dynamics in sexually reproducing species.

Both on sex and two sex population models are valuable tools in population dynamics, each with
its strength and limitations. One sex models offer simplicity and ease of analysis, while two sex
models provide a more comprehensive understanding of reproductive dynamics and interactions
between sexes. The choice between often depends on the specific research question and the
available data.
Objectives of the seminar

-To introduce the fundamental concept of the continuous two sex population model

-To explore the mathematical formulation of the model.

-To discuss applications and implications in real world scenarios.

-To present case studies demonstrating the model’s utilities.

-To encourage discussion on future research directions and challenges.

Background and motivation

The importance of studying sex ratios in population is it can significantly influence ecological
dynamics, evolutionary processes, and conservation efforts.

Some key points highlighting the importance of sex ratios include; reproductive success and
population growth, population dynamics, ecological interactions, conservation and management,
Human impacts and etc.

The historical context of population models is rich and spans several centuries, reflecting the
evolution of scientific thought, demographic understanding, and mathematical
[Link] theory(1798), Thomas Robert Malthus published”An essay on the principle
of population,”which argued that populations grow exponentially while resources grow
arithmetically, leading to inevitable shortages. Malthus emphasized the relationship between
growth and resource availability, laying groundwork for future demographic studies. Early
Naturalists and demographers observed population dynamics in wildlife, but systematic
modeling was limited. The focus was more on qualitative observations rather than quantitative
analysis. Lotka-Volterra Equations (1920s):Alfred Lotka and Vito Volterra developed
mathematical models to describe predator-prey dynamics. Their equation laid the foundation for
ecological modeling and population dynamics. Hardy-Weinberg principle (1908):This principle
provided a mathematical frame work for studying genetic variation in populations, influencing
models of population structure and dynamics.

The historical context of population models reflects a progression from qualitative observations
to sophisticated quantitative analyses that inform our understanding of both human and
ecological populations. As challenges such as climate change and resource scarcity intensify, the
development of robust population models will continue to be crucial for effective management
and conservation strategies.

Mathematical Formulation

The formulation typically involves a system of differential equations that describe the changes in
the population overtime, considering factors such as birth rates, death rates, and the structure of
the population.

Basic concepts

i. Variables:
Let M(t) represent the male population at time t.
Let F(t) represent the female population at time t.
ii. parameters:
: birth rate coefficient
and are mortality rates for males and females respectively.
The continuous two sex population model can be expressed with the following system
of ordinary differential equations (ODEs)

Explanation of the Equations

1. Male Population Equation:

• The first equation describes the change in the male population over time. It includes:

• A positive term F(t) representing births of males, which is proportional to the female
population.
• A negative term - M(t) representing deaths in the male population.

2. Female Population Equation:

• The second equation describes the change in the female population over time. It includes:

• A positive term M(t) representing births of females, which is proportional to the male
population.

• A negative term - F(t) representing deaths in the female population.

Analysis of the model

[Link] point

.To find equilibrium points, set and

.This leads to solving the equations.

From male equation

This can be factorized as ( )

Thus, either M=0 or

From female equation

This can be factorized as ( )

Thus, either F=0 or

.Possible equilibrum points include:

.(M*,F*)=(0,0): Extinction .

.Non-trivial equilibrum when populations are [Link] is

(M*,F*)=( )

2. Stability analysis
Perform linear stability analysis around equilibrium points by calculating the Jacobian matrix:

Let
f1 and

f2

J=| |

Calculating the partial derivatives:

1. For J11 =

2. For J12 =

3. For J21 =

4. For J22 =

Thus, the Jacobian matrix becomes:

J=| |

Evaluating the Jacobian at equilibrium points

At the extinction point (0,0)

Substituting (M,F)=(0,0):

J(0,0)=| |

The eigen values are – , indicating that extinction equilibrium point is stable.

At the non-trivial equilibrium point (M*,F*)=( )

Substituting into the Jacobian:

1. calculate J11=0, because J11=

2. Calculate J22=0, because J22=

3. The Jacobian becomes:

Then, the characteristic polynomial is given by;

Det (J- )=0

–
Det | |= ( )( )

This simplifies to:

( )

Thus, Eigen values are:

, k=√

The presence of purely imaginary Eigen values indicates that the non-trivial equilibrium point is
a center, which means it is stable in a local sense but not asymptotically stable. Small
perturbations will lead to oscillatory behavior around this point.

In summary, the extinction equilibrium point is stable, while the non trivial equilibrium point is
stable but exhibits oscillatory behavior. Further analysis may be required to understand global
dynamics and potential bifurcations in more complex model.
Numerical Analysis of the model

Numerical analysis of the model is used to verify analytical(theretical)work.

function modeling2017
clear all;clc;close all;
tspan=linspace(0,10);
x0=[10,12];
[t,x]=ode45(@math,tspan,x0);
%we are going to plot a continuous two sex population model
plot(t,x(:,1),'g',t,x(:,2),'r--','linewidth',3)
xlabel('time(years)')
ylabel('total population')
legend('male','female')
title('A continuous two sex population model')
set(gca,'linewidth',3)
box on
function dz=math(t,x)
global b a
b=0.1;a=0.01;
dz=zeros(2,1);
dz(1)=b*x(1)*x(2)-a*x(1)*x(1);
dz(2)=b*x(1)*x(2)-a*x(2)*x(2);

A continuous two sex population model

3000

2500
total population

2000

1500

1000

500

0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4
time(years)